OK....this is a college football blog, and I am not what you would consider a NASCAR junkie, but I watched the Daytona 500 yesterday and I've got some thoughts.
First of all, Dale Earnhardt Jr. is a good guy, or he has been. He's eminently likable and honest, and I look forward to hearing his thoughts on post race interviews. This is mostly because oftentimes he finds himself explaining some boneheaded blunder that caused himself and his team to be on the outside looking in. "Well...I kinda got loose out there a little bit, wrecked a couple Childress cars...sorry about that." When he was with DEI, he could always fall back on the possible limitations of his team to explain his lack of success the past couple of years. Since he has been with Hendrick however, there are very few excuses...his team is top notch. The fact he has won only once has more to do with his mediocre driving than anything else.
Fast forward to yesterday. Again, as he strapped it in on Sunday, he had as good a chance as anyone...great car, solid crew, support from the best team in the game, and a restrictor plate track, his personal specialty as a driver. But then it all starts to unravel. He misses his pit box completely, 100% his blunder, causing him to lose ground. Then, when he actually finds the box, he creeps over the line, causing him to fall a full lap behind. So now, his solid crew is a lap down due solely to his own butchering. Now he's pissed off. As his subsequent interviews would suggest, he feels he's the victim. He can't see the pit boxes because the colors look the same. The punishment of a full lap for an inch over the line doesn't meet the crime. AAAARGGGHH! He's on the road to another bad finish, when he should have been there at the end, and all he can do is blame his own buffoonery.
Well, Dale Jr would have none of that. All that matters is that he make up that lap so he can commerce his assault on the front of the field. Fast forward to lap 123. Earnhardt gets a run on Brian Vickers and attempts to make a pass on the inside, where, of course there exists a double yellow out of bounds line. As is almost always the case in a restrictor plate race, Vickers moved down to block Earnhardt. This is legal. How dare he do that!!! Brian Vickers?? He hasn't won anything and drives a Toyota!! I'm Dale JR!!!!! A very convenient target, that Vickers. Unfortunately, as evidenced later in his interview, Earnhardt is too obsessed with his own situation to realize that Vickers is also attempting to get back on the lead lap, and currently possesses what Earnhardt wants, the "lucky dog" free pass in the event of a caution. So Vickers moves down to block Earnhardt. Earnhardt claims that Vickers bumped him, causing him to lose control and then run into Vickers' rear quarter panel. A ver convenient story, but not the case, as anyone with two eyes can see. After Vickers blocked Earnhardt, Junior gathered himself. He then made the conscious decision to wreck Vickers, knowing full well that his reputation would trump Vickers's.
Then he has the gall to tell his crew over the radio to have Vickers meet him in the garage if he "wants his ass beaten.". That's all Vickers needs, a confrontation with Junior leading to 70,000 toothless inbred Junior fans threatening anal rape and a shotgun blast to the face for the rest of his life.
It's pretty obvious to me. Junior wrecked Vickers because he was pissed off, tired of losing and figured he could get away with it because of who he is, and who Vickers is. Maybe he's trying to get a personna like his father. Good for him. It can only help his marketability, because it certainly appears that he's too much of an ignorant slackjawed hillbilly to rely on his smarts or driving prowess.
Monday, February 16, 2009
Monday, January 5, 2009
Final Bowl Musings
Well, we've come to the end of the line. Believe it or not, despite all my bitching and bellyaching, the numbered musings for bowl season stand at 6-4. I skipped sending anything out for the International Bowl because I figured that nobody would have any interest. Let me make two quick points before I begin:
1. I think the AP should vote Utah the National Champions. They are the only undefeated team in the country, and they handled Bama relatively easily. Don't give me this bullshit about jumping people in the polls. Before they beat Bama, you couldn't really make a "strong" case for them due to their schedule, but now you can. They beat everyone on their schedule, including 2 Top 10 squads. If I was an AP voter, I'd have absolutely no problem voting them #1.
2. Steve Spurrier should be fired because he sucks ass. Watching his team get the shit kicked out of them by a decent Iowa team and execute at the level of an 8th grade team was a disgrace. 5 years into his tenure and his quarterbacks still play as if they need to major in clue searching. The rumblings should start now, and if he can't get things going, they need to bring in some other hack and pay him $2Million less to go 6-6.
On to the remainder of the bowls, and the countdown to next year.
11. Texas -8 1/2 v Ohio St: I haven't checked lines this morning, but this is what it was last night. Some places might still have it at 8. Jim Tressel actually has a pretty good track record in bowls in which he is catching a lot of points and people aren't giving his squad much of a chance. Consider the MNC game in early '03, the Fiesta Bowl the next year against the K State team that roughed up Oklahoma before they lost to LSU in the MNC game and the Alamo Bowl where they clobbered Oklahoma St as a significant dog.That being said, I think they are going to get hammered in this game. I assume that there is some danger that Texas won't want to be there, especially since Utah can make a better case than they can to the MNC, but we're talking about Ohio St here. People get up for them, and I assume that there will be a big mob of Red faced red garbed Buckeye fans making their presence felt, so there's some motivation there. I think the biggest aspects of this game will be Texas's ability to pressure the Freshman Pryor, and their ability to stop the run.. Texas is second in the country in sacks, 5th against the run and OSU has struggled to keep defenses off their Qbs, and 2 or 3 years from now, when Pryor is accepting the Heisman or doing a post game MNC interview or something like that, he'll recall how he was unprepared and too cocky for this game, etc and how he used the experience as a learning tool and got better. Oh yeah....Ohio St's defense isn't going to be able to stop Colt McCoy either, or at least enough to cover this number, because I think their offense will struggle. Texas needs to avoid penalties and turnovers, though.
12. Florida -3 1/2 v Oklahoma: It might be 3 in some circles. I locked it in at 3 awhile ago. Not sure what the line is going to do from here. Looking at the matchups in this game, obviously both teams have superior, championship level offenses. The difference in this one will be determined by which defense matches up better with the other offense. In this case, I think there is little doubt that it's Florida's defense. I don't think they'll have much trouble stopping OU's running game, and their pass defense is ranked second in the country. On the flip side, OU has struggled some against the run, and Florida can certainly run it whether it's with Tebow or whatever scat back speed merchant they decide to line up back there. OU has done a good job of pressuring the QB, much better than Florida actually, but I think Tebow's presence back there and their probable ability to run it a bit will offset the pass rush. Ultimately, in my opinion, all of the intangibles fall on Florida's side. I just can't foresee a scenario, given the recent history of both teams, where Oklahoma comes into Florida and puts it on the Gators. Bob Stoops V Urban Meyer seems to me to be a strong edge to Meyer if not a mismatch when you consider that OU has looked like half of it's previous self in it's last 4 bowl games. West Virginia rolled them last year. Boise beat the the year before that, and people forget that they led most of that game until the end as well. They were completely non-competitive in their last MNC game at the same venue. Meanwhile, there's Urban Meyer, looking on approvingly as balls bounce into the waiting arms of defenders in full stride once or twice a game, a play after a touchdown had been called back on a questionable penalty. I don't know that Florida's great fortune will continue, but I see no reason why not. I don't think there's any doubt that Florida will bring their A game. Recent history strongly suggests that OU will not, for whatever reason.
GMAC Bowl: Great matchup. 2 very good offenses in this one.....it's really a tossup.y recommendation would be to take whoever is getting points. Both offenses have huge edges over the respective defenses in all facets, although the gap is wider between Ball St's pass offense and Tulsa's pass defense. However, Tulsa will be able to run on Ball St all day long. Tulsa is much more prone to turning the ball over, but Ball St probably won't be able to get Tulsa off the field on 3rd down. You get the picture. Frankly I probably won't make the call on this one until I find out who's wearing the dark colors. It's that close.
Well, that does it. Going into these last 2, we're at 95-69 on the numbered musings for the year. A possibility of getting to 58 % with a sweep of these two, but most importantly, we're guaranteed a .500 bowl season even with a collapse on these last 2. With the way I've been handicapping bowls the past couple of years, I'll take it. Take care.
1. I think the AP should vote Utah the National Champions. They are the only undefeated team in the country, and they handled Bama relatively easily. Don't give me this bullshit about jumping people in the polls. Before they beat Bama, you couldn't really make a "strong" case for them due to their schedule, but now you can. They beat everyone on their schedule, including 2 Top 10 squads. If I was an AP voter, I'd have absolutely no problem voting them #1.
2. Steve Spurrier should be fired because he sucks ass. Watching his team get the shit kicked out of them by a decent Iowa team and execute at the level of an 8th grade team was a disgrace. 5 years into his tenure and his quarterbacks still play as if they need to major in clue searching. The rumblings should start now, and if he can't get things going, they need to bring in some other hack and pay him $2Million less to go 6-6.
On to the remainder of the bowls, and the countdown to next year.
11. Texas -8 1/2 v Ohio St: I haven't checked lines this morning, but this is what it was last night. Some places might still have it at 8. Jim Tressel actually has a pretty good track record in bowls in which he is catching a lot of points and people aren't giving his squad much of a chance. Consider the MNC game in early '03, the Fiesta Bowl the next year against the K State team that roughed up Oklahoma before they lost to LSU in the MNC game and the Alamo Bowl where they clobbered Oklahoma St as a significant dog.That being said, I think they are going to get hammered in this game. I assume that there is some danger that Texas won't want to be there, especially since Utah can make a better case than they can to the MNC, but we're talking about Ohio St here. People get up for them, and I assume that there will be a big mob of Red faced red garbed Buckeye fans making their presence felt, so there's some motivation there. I think the biggest aspects of this game will be Texas's ability to pressure the Freshman Pryor, and their ability to stop the run.. Texas is second in the country in sacks, 5th against the run and OSU has struggled to keep defenses off their Qbs, and 2 or 3 years from now, when Pryor is accepting the Heisman or doing a post game MNC interview or something like that, he'll recall how he was unprepared and too cocky for this game, etc and how he used the experience as a learning tool and got better. Oh yeah....Ohio St's defense isn't going to be able to stop Colt McCoy either, or at least enough to cover this number, because I think their offense will struggle. Texas needs to avoid penalties and turnovers, though.
12. Florida -3 1/2 v Oklahoma: It might be 3 in some circles. I locked it in at 3 awhile ago. Not sure what the line is going to do from here. Looking at the matchups in this game, obviously both teams have superior, championship level offenses. The difference in this one will be determined by which defense matches up better with the other offense. In this case, I think there is little doubt that it's Florida's defense. I don't think they'll have much trouble stopping OU's running game, and their pass defense is ranked second in the country. On the flip side, OU has struggled some against the run, and Florida can certainly run it whether it's with Tebow or whatever scat back speed merchant they decide to line up back there. OU has done a good job of pressuring the QB, much better than Florida actually, but I think Tebow's presence back there and their probable ability to run it a bit will offset the pass rush. Ultimately, in my opinion, all of the intangibles fall on Florida's side. I just can't foresee a scenario, given the recent history of both teams, where Oklahoma comes into Florida and puts it on the Gators. Bob Stoops V Urban Meyer seems to me to be a strong edge to Meyer if not a mismatch when you consider that OU has looked like half of it's previous self in it's last 4 bowl games. West Virginia rolled them last year. Boise beat the the year before that, and people forget that they led most of that game until the end as well. They were completely non-competitive in their last MNC game at the same venue. Meanwhile, there's Urban Meyer, looking on approvingly as balls bounce into the waiting arms of defenders in full stride once or twice a game, a play after a touchdown had been called back on a questionable penalty. I don't know that Florida's great fortune will continue, but I see no reason why not. I don't think there's any doubt that Florida will bring their A game. Recent history strongly suggests that OU will not, for whatever reason.
GMAC Bowl: Great matchup. 2 very good offenses in this one.....it's really a tossup.y recommendation would be to take whoever is getting points. Both offenses have huge edges over the respective defenses in all facets, although the gap is wider between Ball St's pass offense and Tulsa's pass defense. However, Tulsa will be able to run on Ball St all day long. Tulsa is much more prone to turning the ball over, but Ball St probably won't be able to get Tulsa off the field on 3rd down. You get the picture. Frankly I probably won't make the call on this one until I find out who's wearing the dark colors. It's that close.
Well, that does it. Going into these last 2, we're at 95-69 on the numbered musings for the year. A possibility of getting to 58 % with a sweep of these two, but most importantly, we're guaranteed a .500 bowl season even with a collapse on these last 2. With the way I've been handicapping bowls the past couple of years, I'll take it. Take care.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
More Crappy Bowl Musings
So yesterday, I'm watching bowl games, and I'm trying to figure all this out. First off, it appears the theme of this bowl season might be that the starting QB for whatever team I bet on gets hurt. First we had Russell Wilson for NC St on Monday, which turned a no brainer cover into a sweatbox. Then yesterday, Nevada's Colin Kaepernick turns his ankle in the first quarter, rendering Nevada's biggest offensive weapon(his run/pass option ability) moot. While we're at it, one of the least explosive offenses in the country (Maryland) had 7 plays of 40 yards or more plus a kickoff return for a score, and ran roughshod over the 5th best rushing defense in the country. Then later, WMU's Tim Hiller landed on his shoulder or something apparently in the first quarter, leading to as pathetic an exhibition of duck throwing I've seen since the Craig Krenzel/Chad Hutchinson era for the Bears. The result: Rice, yes the same Rice that gave up 492 total yards to Army, was dominant on defense against a legitimately good offense. Whatever. At least Oregon woke up in the second half and brought some degree of order. Enough whining. We'll see what happens today, as I like Oregon St, but I figured I'd get the New Year's games out there so you can fade them, since these are the sides that will lose the turnover battle and almost certainly give up a defensive or ST score....
9. Georgia -7 1/2 v Michigan St: A severely public play, but sometimes the public is right. I've been burned before fading the Big Ten on these early Florida New Year's Day games (Penn St v Tennessee, Wisconsin V Auburn in the game that really ignited my hatred for Tommy Tuberville), but I think this one is too obvious to pass up. Throughout the year, Michigan St has racked up a nice record by basically sneaking by teams it should beat. They have played 2 elite teams this year, Ohio St(and I'm being generous in calling them elite) and Penn St. They were dismantled in both games. Their MO is to run Javon Ringer at 3 yards a crack until his legs fall off(any interest, Jerry Angelo?) and only throw when absolutely necessary. As I pointed out in previous musings, they haven't really run truly effectively in any game this year, and they won't against Georgia's D either. Defensively, they don't stop the run or the pass with any regularity, so Moreno and Stafford should be able to operate pretty much unencumbered in what might be their swan song. If you match up the units to decipher who has the edge in what situation, i.e., UGA pass offense v MSU pass defense, MSU rush O v UGA rush D, etc, Goergia has a distinct advantage in every conceivable category. The only possible problems are turnovers, because MSU has been opportunistic, and penalties, because UGA has racked up a lot of personal fouls this year. Kind of a recipe for disaster given my previous experience this bowl season, but when a team has such a distinct advantage in actual scrimmage activity, they must be played at a TD. Buy it down if it's not too expensive.
10. Nebraska +2 1/2(buy to 3) v Clemson: Nebraska under Bo Pellini has had a middling season, but it was good enough to garner a January 1st bowl game, so the Huskers will be excited and looking to build for the future. Clemson, left for dead at midseason, also somehow found themselves here. Don't ask me how, because I have no idea. They've given Dabo Swinney the full time gig, which is obviously a collossal mistake, but whatever, do what you want. Taking a look at matchups in this game, it appears that these teams might be evenly matched in the passing games, but I'll submit that Nebraska should have the better of it. The Huskers under Joe Ganz are a solid passing squad, and I like their running game as well. Clemson is actually ranked 10th in the country in pass defense, but lets take a closer look. They have played only 2 teams all year with any semblance of a passing game, Maryland and Florida St,and neither is particularly good They lost both of those games. Nebraska is miles better than any passing game they've faced all year, and Clemson has not pressured the QB at all this year(106th in sacks) so Ganz will be allowed to be comfortable in the pocket. In addition, Clemson is ranked 111th in 3dr down conversions while Nebraska is 32nd against, and that's in the Big 12 with the likes of Mizzou, Oklahoma and Texas Tech on their schedule. I see an advantage for Nebraska on both sides of the ball in this one, and we're getting points. Looks to me like the wrong team is favored here.
Others: In the Outback, I'm pretty much torn. A Big Ten team favored over an SEC team? (Iowa -3 1/2 v South Carolina). Statistically it makes sense, because South Carolina will not be able to run it at all on Iowa and their passing game has been a steady series of fuck ups all year. Spurrier also stands to be spending a lot of time looking disapprovingly at the goings on on the field, as per usual lately. However, South Carolina does sport a good defense, against a pedestrian Iowa outfit. If Shonn Green can't run effectively, they are in trouble, but he hasn't failed to run for 100 all year, so he probably won't start now. As I have mentioned before, Spurrier is without a doubt the most overrated coach in the country, so I think Iowa will have the advantage there as well with Ferentz. The Big Ten is not used to being a favorite both on the board and with the public on these games, so I refuse to lay more than a FG, but I have no interest in backing Spurrier here either. I guess I might buy it down to 3 and play Iowa. Still undecided though......The Rose Bowl is another tough one. Statistically, these teams are dead even. However, I can't get that stretch of time in midseason where Penn St looked pedestrian on offense out of my mind. I really can envision this USC defense dominating Penn St. It really all comes down to if Penn St's offense can sack up and move the ball against the best defense in the country in their element. The stats say that they can, but my recollection of the Big Ten's recent performances in this game says they can't. That's not really fair, though. I'm afraid that USC will get all the breaks, just like they did last year against Illinois. The spread has fallen, almost begging you to lay with USC, so I'll wait to see if it goes back up, because when undecided, I'll take the significant points, especially in what shapes up to be a defensive game between two evenly matched teams. Screw my history based fears!!!.....When I first looked at Cincy/VT, I was solidly in Cincy's corner, but now this one looks like a tossup as well. Neither team will be able to do much of anything offensively against the other. Cincy has a pretty good passing attack, but VT will be able to pressure their QBs. Neither team is likely to be able to run it much if at all, so I think this one will come down to intangibles, which VT has a distinct edge in (penalties, turnovers, FG kicking). Plus they are getting points, have been here before and are looking to made amends from last year. Cincy might be a little wide eyed.....Also leaning toward Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl. I liken this to an uninformed baseball argument I was privy to a few years ago. Two guys in my office were arguing about the Cubs and Cardinals. The Cub fan contended that the Cubs would beat the Cardinals because they had a better pitching staff than the Cardinals did. Well guess what genius... if your horrific offense can't score any runs against any pitching staff, and the Cardinals have the best offense in the league, it doesn't really matter how the staffs match up now does it? It all depends on the advantages relative to the units, right? That's the case here. Obviously, Texas Tech has a much much better offense than Ole Miss, but Ole Miss's defense is very good. I would submit that the distance between the TT offense and the Ole Miss defense is shorter than what we would see vice versa. Also, this line has fallen to 4, and remains steady, as if Vegas is begging people to lay with TT, which they are doing in droves. Even though I would think I should be getting at least a TD here, I'll be taking the points.....Kentucky/ECU is a shit game, no real opinion there......The Sugar Bowl got more interesting with the suspension of Andre Smith the big OT for the Tide. As always, I am skeptical of Bama as a big favorite, and Utah has a good enough D to keep them in the game so I'll take the 10.....That's it for now, I'll have MNC thoughts as well as Fiesta later on.....
9. Georgia -7 1/2 v Michigan St: A severely public play, but sometimes the public is right. I've been burned before fading the Big Ten on these early Florida New Year's Day games (Penn St v Tennessee, Wisconsin V Auburn in the game that really ignited my hatred for Tommy Tuberville), but I think this one is too obvious to pass up. Throughout the year, Michigan St has racked up a nice record by basically sneaking by teams it should beat. They have played 2 elite teams this year, Ohio St(and I'm being generous in calling them elite) and Penn St. They were dismantled in both games. Their MO is to run Javon Ringer at 3 yards a crack until his legs fall off(any interest, Jerry Angelo?) and only throw when absolutely necessary. As I pointed out in previous musings, they haven't really run truly effectively in any game this year, and they won't against Georgia's D either. Defensively, they don't stop the run or the pass with any regularity, so Moreno and Stafford should be able to operate pretty much unencumbered in what might be their swan song. If you match up the units to decipher who has the edge in what situation, i.e., UGA pass offense v MSU pass defense, MSU rush O v UGA rush D, etc, Goergia has a distinct advantage in every conceivable category. The only possible problems are turnovers, because MSU has been opportunistic, and penalties, because UGA has racked up a lot of personal fouls this year. Kind of a recipe for disaster given my previous experience this bowl season, but when a team has such a distinct advantage in actual scrimmage activity, they must be played at a TD. Buy it down if it's not too expensive.
10. Nebraska +2 1/2(buy to 3) v Clemson: Nebraska under Bo Pellini has had a middling season, but it was good enough to garner a January 1st bowl game, so the Huskers will be excited and looking to build for the future. Clemson, left for dead at midseason, also somehow found themselves here. Don't ask me how, because I have no idea. They've given Dabo Swinney the full time gig, which is obviously a collossal mistake, but whatever, do what you want. Taking a look at matchups in this game, it appears that these teams might be evenly matched in the passing games, but I'll submit that Nebraska should have the better of it. The Huskers under Joe Ganz are a solid passing squad, and I like their running game as well. Clemson is actually ranked 10th in the country in pass defense, but lets take a closer look. They have played only 2 teams all year with any semblance of a passing game, Maryland and Florida St,and neither is particularly good They lost both of those games. Nebraska is miles better than any passing game they've faced all year, and Clemson has not pressured the QB at all this year(106th in sacks) so Ganz will be allowed to be comfortable in the pocket. In addition, Clemson is ranked 111th in 3dr down conversions while Nebraska is 32nd against, and that's in the Big 12 with the likes of Mizzou, Oklahoma and Texas Tech on their schedule. I see an advantage for Nebraska on both sides of the ball in this one, and we're getting points. Looks to me like the wrong team is favored here.
Others: In the Outback, I'm pretty much torn. A Big Ten team favored over an SEC team? (Iowa -3 1/2 v South Carolina). Statistically it makes sense, because South Carolina will not be able to run it at all on Iowa and their passing game has been a steady series of fuck ups all year. Spurrier also stands to be spending a lot of time looking disapprovingly at the goings on on the field, as per usual lately. However, South Carolina does sport a good defense, against a pedestrian Iowa outfit. If Shonn Green can't run effectively, they are in trouble, but he hasn't failed to run for 100 all year, so he probably won't start now. As I have mentioned before, Spurrier is without a doubt the most overrated coach in the country, so I think Iowa will have the advantage there as well with Ferentz. The Big Ten is not used to being a favorite both on the board and with the public on these games, so I refuse to lay more than a FG, but I have no interest in backing Spurrier here either. I guess I might buy it down to 3 and play Iowa. Still undecided though......The Rose Bowl is another tough one. Statistically, these teams are dead even. However, I can't get that stretch of time in midseason where Penn St looked pedestrian on offense out of my mind. I really can envision this USC defense dominating Penn St. It really all comes down to if Penn St's offense can sack up and move the ball against the best defense in the country in their element. The stats say that they can, but my recollection of the Big Ten's recent performances in this game says they can't. That's not really fair, though. I'm afraid that USC will get all the breaks, just like they did last year against Illinois. The spread has fallen, almost begging you to lay with USC, so I'll wait to see if it goes back up, because when undecided, I'll take the significant points, especially in what shapes up to be a defensive game between two evenly matched teams. Screw my history based fears!!!.....When I first looked at Cincy/VT, I was solidly in Cincy's corner, but now this one looks like a tossup as well. Neither team will be able to do much of anything offensively against the other. Cincy has a pretty good passing attack, but VT will be able to pressure their QBs. Neither team is likely to be able to run it much if at all, so I think this one will come down to intangibles, which VT has a distinct edge in (penalties, turnovers, FG kicking). Plus they are getting points, have been here before and are looking to made amends from last year. Cincy might be a little wide eyed.....Also leaning toward Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl. I liken this to an uninformed baseball argument I was privy to a few years ago. Two guys in my office were arguing about the Cubs and Cardinals. The Cub fan contended that the Cubs would beat the Cardinals because they had a better pitching staff than the Cardinals did. Well guess what genius... if your horrific offense can't score any runs against any pitching staff, and the Cardinals have the best offense in the league, it doesn't really matter how the staffs match up now does it? It all depends on the advantages relative to the units, right? That's the case here. Obviously, Texas Tech has a much much better offense than Ole Miss, but Ole Miss's defense is very good. I would submit that the distance between the TT offense and the Ole Miss defense is shorter than what we would see vice versa. Also, this line has fallen to 4, and remains steady, as if Vegas is begging people to lay with TT, which they are doing in droves. Even though I would think I should be getting at least a TD here, I'll be taking the points.....Kentucky/ECU is a shit game, no real opinion there......The Sugar Bowl got more interesting with the suspension of Andre Smith the big OT for the Tide. As always, I am skeptical of Bama as a big favorite, and Utah has a good enough D to keep them in the game so I'll take the 10.....That's it for now, I'll have MNC thoughts as well as Fiesta later on.....
Wednesday, December 31, 2008
More Bowl Musings (Part 3)
After the second go-around, we are stuck at 3-3 for the season on the numbereds, right up there with a coin flip. A special thanks goes out to Dustin Sherer of Wisconsin for the genius move of throwing a backward pass off a FSU defender's hand, resulting in a 75 yard defensive score to get the Champs Sports Bowl of to an appropriate start. Anyway, NC State covered despite losing Russell Wilson on the last play of the first half.(With NC State leading 17-6) If Wilson doesn't get hurt, the Pack wins that game outright. As a result they didn't, of course helped along by a fake FG for a TD, a blocked punt and 2 personal foul penalties that kept scoring drives alive late for Rutgers. A win is a win though. (Provided that you didn't wait until 10 minutes before kickoff to play the game, and then failed to buy the spread back to 6 1/2 or 7.) The following games are over the next couple days, just short of New Year's Day. I'll have those plays tomorrow night.
7. Nevada -2 1/2 v Maryland: Sorry for the lateness here. I didn't realize that this was a day game, but it is. This is somewhat of a fade of Maryland, because there is no way that they have any desire at all to be in Boise over the holidays. If there is ever a team that doesn't need some sort of lack of motivation away from home, it's Maryland, who routinely dials up their most sickly performances in games like this. The Terps are true cowards, a group of coward's cowards, if you will. They've already lost handily on the road as a DD favorite to MTSU early this year, and now they have to travel across the country to what I assume will be freezing cold to play in a game they want no part of against an opponent they can't get jacked to play. Oh, and by the way, said opponent is a bad matchup for them. Maryland relies heavily on their running game, and Nevada just happens to be ranked 4th in he country against the run. If Maryland is going to win this game, they will need to have Chris Turner throw for 350+, something he is not used to doing. Nevada also will likely have the better of Maryland in their own ground game, as they are ranked #1 in the country in rushing offense per carry. Maryland has been gashed at times this year. Unless Maryland has been heavily schooled on the art of "sacking up", I think we can expect a clunker performance here, and and happy trip back to Reno for the Wolf Pack with a coveted win over a BCS opponent under their belt.
8. Oregon St -2 1/2 v Pittsburgh: Get the spread under 3 while you still can, though it's pretty readily available. If it moves to 3, I'd buy it down, but that's just me. Wanny deserves some credit here. He's pretty much avoided any additional "AAAAAAAPPPPPP" moments since the opening upset loss to Bowling Green. However, he will be thoroughly outclassed in the coaching department by Mike Riley in this one. The spread has fallen because the Rodgers brothers are probably not going to play. James, the smallish wide receiver, has a broken collarbone, so he is out, but the jitterbug RB Jacquizz says he will play. Who knows, but even if those two don't play, I still like OSU here. Despite the perceived prowess of Pitt's running game, on a per carry basis, they are downright mediocre, and will struggle to convert 3rd downs on this Beaver defense. The Beavs also sport a big edge at QB, regardless if it's Moevao of Sean Canfield behind center. The Beavs also are coming off a shellacking when all the chips were on the table in their rivalry game with Oregon, so they will be looking for redemption. A small spread like this has me interested when the coaching, QB and motivation edges are all on the same side.
Others: The Holiday Bowl appears to me to be lined about right...Okie St and Oregon are very similar squads, but OSU is much more balanced with their ability to throw the ball. Oregon has a much better run defense than OSU though, so the chances of Oregon dominating with the run game are certainly there. Since it's a LaVette family play, and since I'm getting points (3 should be available) I'll be on Oregon, but I can certainly see why the oddsmakers and public are on OSU.....At first glance, Rice (-3)v Western Michigan looked like a gimme, what with Rice lining up in their home city against a MAC squad as a short favorite, but upon further reflection, Rice's defense is so terrible that I can't lay points with them. Despite an intense love affair with the Owls by the general public, this line has fallen to 2(and since gone back up to 3) WMU has the kind of offense to keep Rice's defense on the field all the live long day. WMU will have the edge in all facets of that matchup, whereas I don't think Rice will be able to run it effectively. Look for WMU's Jamarko Simmons to catch about 15 balls for maybe 225 yards. The same might be true with Rice's Jarrett Dillard, as the Owls will certainly get on the scoreboard, but I think Rice's inability to play any defense will ultimately cost them in this game......Minny/Kansas sits at KU -9. That's a tossup. If Eric Decker is healthy(which is a mystery) he will have all kinds of success with KU's secondary, but so will all of KU's receivers against the Goofers. The line looks about right. I might actually not even play this one. (Forget I said that, quickly.)Gun to head, I'd go with the dog, of course.....Everyone in the free world is on BC (-3 1/2) in their tilt with Vandy. I really see this one as a stalemate..neither offense is going to be able to move the ball on the other, and the game is in Nashville, so forgive me if I don't see BC as the obvious play here. Vandy actually does a good job of converting for TDs in the red zone, a stark contrast to BC, who often settles for FGs. IN a low scoring game, 3 1/2 is significant.....The AF/ Houston line continues to fluctuate between 3 1/2 and 4. These teams already played once this year so it's hard to pick out the motivational edge. At the outset I was anticipating a Houston play, since they have been putting up pinball machine type numbers recently, but their defense is so bad that It makes it hard. Consider that AF beat this team in September without even completing a pass. They've made some changes since then to upgrade the passing attack. Actually, there might be as much of a mismatch for Houston trying to stop AF when they throw it as there is for AF on D. Kind of a tossup, but I'll be taking the points. MWC is still a step above CUSA in my opinion as well.....LSU is getting 4, 4 1/2 in some circles in their game against LSU. The motivational edges are all there for LSU; underdog status against a perceived weaker program, some bad performances to make up for, etc. However, this is the mother of all coaching mismatches, so intangibles will go the way of GA Tech. Having said that, the public is so ingrained on Ga Tech in this one that the spread might go up to 4 1/2. If so, LSU is the value side. Both teams are relatively new to their roles as Dog/favorite here, and I think it will have an effect. Also, Ga Tech is terrible in the red zone, while LSU is pretty good, and there is a big advantage in the kicking game for LSU. There exists the possibility that G Tech will have several open possessions after long drives, and that is not conducive to covering a number. That's it for now. I'll be back soon for more on the Jan 1 games and beyond.
7. Nevada -2 1/2 v Maryland: Sorry for the lateness here. I didn't realize that this was a day game, but it is. This is somewhat of a fade of Maryland, because there is no way that they have any desire at all to be in Boise over the holidays. If there is ever a team that doesn't need some sort of lack of motivation away from home, it's Maryland, who routinely dials up their most sickly performances in games like this. The Terps are true cowards, a group of coward's cowards, if you will. They've already lost handily on the road as a DD favorite to MTSU early this year, and now they have to travel across the country to what I assume will be freezing cold to play in a game they want no part of against an opponent they can't get jacked to play. Oh, and by the way, said opponent is a bad matchup for them. Maryland relies heavily on their running game, and Nevada just happens to be ranked 4th in he country against the run. If Maryland is going to win this game, they will need to have Chris Turner throw for 350+, something he is not used to doing. Nevada also will likely have the better of Maryland in their own ground game, as they are ranked #1 in the country in rushing offense per carry. Maryland has been gashed at times this year. Unless Maryland has been heavily schooled on the art of "sacking up", I think we can expect a clunker performance here, and and happy trip back to Reno for the Wolf Pack with a coveted win over a BCS opponent under their belt.
8. Oregon St -2 1/2 v Pittsburgh: Get the spread under 3 while you still can, though it's pretty readily available. If it moves to 3, I'd buy it down, but that's just me. Wanny deserves some credit here. He's pretty much avoided any additional "AAAAAAAPPPPPP" moments since the opening upset loss to Bowling Green. However, he will be thoroughly outclassed in the coaching department by Mike Riley in this one. The spread has fallen because the Rodgers brothers are probably not going to play. James, the smallish wide receiver, has a broken collarbone, so he is out, but the jitterbug RB Jacquizz says he will play. Who knows, but even if those two don't play, I still like OSU here. Despite the perceived prowess of Pitt's running game, on a per carry basis, they are downright mediocre, and will struggle to convert 3rd downs on this Beaver defense. The Beavs also sport a big edge at QB, regardless if it's Moevao of Sean Canfield behind center. The Beavs also are coming off a shellacking when all the chips were on the table in their rivalry game with Oregon, so they will be looking for redemption. A small spread like this has me interested when the coaching, QB and motivation edges are all on the same side.
Others: The Holiday Bowl appears to me to be lined about right...Okie St and Oregon are very similar squads, but OSU is much more balanced with their ability to throw the ball. Oregon has a much better run defense than OSU though, so the chances of Oregon dominating with the run game are certainly there. Since it's a LaVette family play, and since I'm getting points (3 should be available) I'll be on Oregon, but I can certainly see why the oddsmakers and public are on OSU.....At first glance, Rice (-3)v Western Michigan looked like a gimme, what with Rice lining up in their home city against a MAC squad as a short favorite, but upon further reflection, Rice's defense is so terrible that I can't lay points with them. Despite an intense love affair with the Owls by the general public, this line has fallen to 2(and since gone back up to 3) WMU has the kind of offense to keep Rice's defense on the field all the live long day. WMU will have the edge in all facets of that matchup, whereas I don't think Rice will be able to run it effectively. Look for WMU's Jamarko Simmons to catch about 15 balls for maybe 225 yards. The same might be true with Rice's Jarrett Dillard, as the Owls will certainly get on the scoreboard, but I think Rice's inability to play any defense will ultimately cost them in this game......Minny/Kansas sits at KU -9. That's a tossup. If Eric Decker is healthy(which is a mystery) he will have all kinds of success with KU's secondary, but so will all of KU's receivers against the Goofers. The line looks about right. I might actually not even play this one. (Forget I said that, quickly.)Gun to head, I'd go with the dog, of course.....Everyone in the free world is on BC (-3 1/2) in their tilt with Vandy. I really see this one as a stalemate..neither offense is going to be able to move the ball on the other, and the game is in Nashville, so forgive me if I don't see BC as the obvious play here. Vandy actually does a good job of converting for TDs in the red zone, a stark contrast to BC, who often settles for FGs. IN a low scoring game, 3 1/2 is significant.....The AF/ Houston line continues to fluctuate between 3 1/2 and 4. These teams already played once this year so it's hard to pick out the motivational edge. At the outset I was anticipating a Houston play, since they have been putting up pinball machine type numbers recently, but their defense is so bad that It makes it hard. Consider that AF beat this team in September without even completing a pass. They've made some changes since then to upgrade the passing attack. Actually, there might be as much of a mismatch for Houston trying to stop AF when they throw it as there is for AF on D. Kind of a tossup, but I'll be taking the points. MWC is still a step above CUSA in my opinion as well.....LSU is getting 4, 4 1/2 in some circles in their game against LSU. The motivational edges are all there for LSU; underdog status against a perceived weaker program, some bad performances to make up for, etc. However, this is the mother of all coaching mismatches, so intangibles will go the way of GA Tech. Having said that, the public is so ingrained on Ga Tech in this one that the spread might go up to 4 1/2. If so, LSU is the value side. Both teams are relatively new to their roles as Dog/favorite here, and I think it will have an effect. Also, Ga Tech is terrible in the red zone, while LSU is pretty good, and there is a big advantage in the kicking game for LSU. There exists the possibility that G Tech will have several open possessions after long drives, and that is not conducive to covering a number. That's it for now. I'll be back soon for more on the Jan 1 games and beyond.
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Bowl Musings Continued (Part 2)
1-2 to start, not surprising since I have gotten off to bad starts the past couple of years. I have to say, though, that I think you can make a case for all 3 being the right side. For example, a confluence of about 8 events had to come together for TCU to avoid covering the Poinsettia Bowl. They had more first downs than Boise had rushing yards for crying out loud. How do you outgain a team by 225+ yards, outrush them 250-23 and only win the game by 1? I', still trying to figure that out myself. As for BYU, they played like complete dogshit, effed up just about every play they ran, didn't cover a soul the entire game, yet still had to absolutely shit the bed in the last 5 minutes to blow the cover. If BYU showed up and played with any resolve at all, they win the game by DD. Oh well, what can you do? Besides scream obscenities at the TV for a two hour span, that is.
4.Wisconsin +6 v Florida St: Frankly, I see no discernible advantage for either team in this game. Generally Florida St would have a distinct speed advantage over any Wisconsin squad, but this isn't necessarily a fast Florida St team. They rely more on size and position in the passing game, and less on speed, so Wisconsin matches up pretty well with them. Both teams run it well and stop the run ok, and struggle throwing the ball, though I think Christian Ponder is a little more turnover prone than Scherer is for the Badgers. Also, I would be surprised if FSU has faced an offensive line as good as Wisconsin's with the exception of Florida, who ran roughshod over the Noles in a deluge. If Florida St struggles to stop the run(and Clay could be primed for a big day), I can rather easily see an outright win for Wisconsin, since FSU is certainly not explosive on offense, and Wisconsin is no pushover on D. The spread has moved to 6, and 70% of the public is on FSU. There isn't a lot of logic behind that in my opinion. Florida St could win by 7 or more, but I think an outright by the Badgers is just about as likely.
5. NC State +7 v Rutgers: Rutgers has definitely proved themselves as one of the most improved squads during the course of this year. A the beginning of the season, they looked like the Washington Generals..a running comedy of errors. As the season wore on, however, and I guess as they moved deeper into the Big East schedule, Mike Teel got his wits about him and started letting his explosive receiving corps make plays for him. As a result, they have won their last 5, and outgained their opponent in 3 of those 5 by 300+. Explosiveness in the passing game and a myriad of turnovers have led to this. However, at the end of the day, I think Mike Teel comes up short in the gumption department in games that mean something, and this bowl game against a legit opponent means something. Now, you might be thinking, "Legit opponent? NC State? 6-6 NC State? Yes. They are 6-6, it's true, but with Russell Wilson under center, they are 5-3 and a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Keep in mind that NC State was a dog in every one of their lined games this season and went 6-6. Not bad when you put it in that context. Also, if you are going to give me a TD with a team coached by Tom O"Brien with a solid running game and a QB with a 16/1 ratio, I am a taker, especially if that team is getting a TD from a 7-5 team out of the Big East. Strong public fade as well, I like this one.
6. Louisiana Tech pk v Northern Illinois: Listen, neither of these teams are worth a crap, both play in conferences with questionable teams at best, NIU squeaked out a 6-6 record, La Tech a 7-5 record. However, I think there are enough positives as this matchup takes shape to put me solidly in La Tech's side here. Early in the season, La Tech was downright putrid on offense, especially in the passing game, because they had a QB (Taylor Bennett) who literally could not throw a spiral off the broad side of a barn. Once they made the move to Ross Jenkins, they at least went from utterly helpless to somewhat competent. At the same time, they started running the ball better. Their MO is run the ball and stop the run. and it's a good thing for them too, because they cannot stop the pass to save their lives. Luckily for them, NIU can't really throw it, so it's a favorable matchup for them. NIU has had some success on offense, but only against teams ranked in the bottom 25-30 in total defense. When they played anyone with a pulse on defense, they struggled mightily. In order to win this game, NIU is going to have to throw it and throw it often. That is not their comfort zone. La Tech is ranked 11th against the run, and has a shut down performance of Nevada on their resume. Keep in mind that Nevada is the top rushing attack in the country. Louisiana Tech has a better running game than Northern, they stop the run better than NIU and the game is in their backyard. They definitely look like the value side in this one.
Others: I lean to North Carolina (+2) in the opener on Saturday in Charlotte over West Virginia. North Carolina is fast enough on defense to stick with Pat White, and there are rumors that Noel Devine's ovaries hurt, so he might not play. Major coaching advantage for UNC as well in this one, and TJ Yates is back healthy on offense, so we'll likely see an improvement in their passing game.....The Miami/Cal line is going up, having reached 10. It might get higher. I originally liked Cal at around a TD because of the major advantage they'll have running he ball on Miami, but if this line keeps going up, a Jacory Harris led attack for Miami is much better than a Robert Marve led attack. Hard to back Miami, though when they've given up 691 yards on the ground in their past 2 games and are now facing the #8 per carry rushing attack in the country. If it sticks at 10 or maybe goes down, I'll probably pull the trigger on the favorite.....Northwesterm/Mizzou(-12 1/2) is a tough one. Mizzou is so bad on defense that they are hard to back at DD, but Northwestern's offense is severely overrated, and they will struggle to stop Mizzou's attack unless there is some kind of common knowledge being shared with the square jawed Pat Fitzgerald. (The NW coach, not the guy prosecuting our bag of shit Governor Blago). If there's some sort of method to getting pressure on Chase Daniel that NW can follow, I would like them, but I fear for them. I really do. I'll probably be taking the points though....I mean NW is 9-3 aren't they? That's it for now. More to come probably Monday night.
4.Wisconsin +6 v Florida St: Frankly, I see no discernible advantage for either team in this game. Generally Florida St would have a distinct speed advantage over any Wisconsin squad, but this isn't necessarily a fast Florida St team. They rely more on size and position in the passing game, and less on speed, so Wisconsin matches up pretty well with them. Both teams run it well and stop the run ok, and struggle throwing the ball, though I think Christian Ponder is a little more turnover prone than Scherer is for the Badgers. Also, I would be surprised if FSU has faced an offensive line as good as Wisconsin's with the exception of Florida, who ran roughshod over the Noles in a deluge. If Florida St struggles to stop the run(and Clay could be primed for a big day), I can rather easily see an outright win for Wisconsin, since FSU is certainly not explosive on offense, and Wisconsin is no pushover on D. The spread has moved to 6, and 70% of the public is on FSU. There isn't a lot of logic behind that in my opinion. Florida St could win by 7 or more, but I think an outright by the Badgers is just about as likely.
5. NC State +7 v Rutgers: Rutgers has definitely proved themselves as one of the most improved squads during the course of this year. A the beginning of the season, they looked like the Washington Generals..a running comedy of errors. As the season wore on, however, and I guess as they moved deeper into the Big East schedule, Mike Teel got his wits about him and started letting his explosive receiving corps make plays for him. As a result, they have won their last 5, and outgained their opponent in 3 of those 5 by 300+. Explosiveness in the passing game and a myriad of turnovers have led to this. However, at the end of the day, I think Mike Teel comes up short in the gumption department in games that mean something, and this bowl game against a legit opponent means something. Now, you might be thinking, "Legit opponent? NC State? 6-6 NC State? Yes. They are 6-6, it's true, but with Russell Wilson under center, they are 5-3 and a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Keep in mind that NC State was a dog in every one of their lined games this season and went 6-6. Not bad when you put it in that context. Also, if you are going to give me a TD with a team coached by Tom O"Brien with a solid running game and a QB with a 16/1 ratio, I am a taker, especially if that team is getting a TD from a 7-5 team out of the Big East. Strong public fade as well, I like this one.
6. Louisiana Tech pk v Northern Illinois: Listen, neither of these teams are worth a crap, both play in conferences with questionable teams at best, NIU squeaked out a 6-6 record, La Tech a 7-5 record. However, I think there are enough positives as this matchup takes shape to put me solidly in La Tech's side here. Early in the season, La Tech was downright putrid on offense, especially in the passing game, because they had a QB (Taylor Bennett) who literally could not throw a spiral off the broad side of a barn. Once they made the move to Ross Jenkins, they at least went from utterly helpless to somewhat competent. At the same time, they started running the ball better. Their MO is run the ball and stop the run. and it's a good thing for them too, because they cannot stop the pass to save their lives. Luckily for them, NIU can't really throw it, so it's a favorable matchup for them. NIU has had some success on offense, but only against teams ranked in the bottom 25-30 in total defense. When they played anyone with a pulse on defense, they struggled mightily. In order to win this game, NIU is going to have to throw it and throw it often. That is not their comfort zone. La Tech is ranked 11th against the run, and has a shut down performance of Nevada on their resume. Keep in mind that Nevada is the top rushing attack in the country. Louisiana Tech has a better running game than Northern, they stop the run better than NIU and the game is in their backyard. They definitely look like the value side in this one.
Others: I lean to North Carolina (+2) in the opener on Saturday in Charlotte over West Virginia. North Carolina is fast enough on defense to stick with Pat White, and there are rumors that Noel Devine's ovaries hurt, so he might not play. Major coaching advantage for UNC as well in this one, and TJ Yates is back healthy on offense, so we'll likely see an improvement in their passing game.....The Miami/Cal line is going up, having reached 10. It might get higher. I originally liked Cal at around a TD because of the major advantage they'll have running he ball on Miami, but if this line keeps going up, a Jacory Harris led attack for Miami is much better than a Robert Marve led attack. Hard to back Miami, though when they've given up 691 yards on the ground in their past 2 games and are now facing the #8 per carry rushing attack in the country. If it sticks at 10 or maybe goes down, I'll probably pull the trigger on the favorite.....Northwesterm/Mizzou(-12 1/2) is a tough one. Mizzou is so bad on defense that they are hard to back at DD, but Northwestern's offense is severely overrated, and they will struggle to stop Mizzou's attack unless there is some kind of common knowledge being shared with the square jawed Pat Fitzgerald. (The NW coach, not the guy prosecuting our bag of shit Governor Blago). If there's some sort of method to getting pressure on Chase Daniel that NW can follow, I would like them, but I fear for them. I really do. I'll probably be taking the points though....I mean NW is 9-3 aren't they? That's it for now. More to come probably Monday night.
Friday, December 19, 2008
2008 Bowl Musings Part 1
As we move to the bowls this year, I feel significantly more comfortable looking at the lines this year than I did in the previous two years. I can vividly remember, both last year and the year before that, staring at the lines and drawing a blank. Not really the case this year. Actually, handicapping the bowls is a different animal overall than handicapping the regular season. You have to take motivation into consideration more now, and coaching, while always important, is even moreso now because of the time off, and the structure needed to adequately communicate and execute a game plan. So, having said that, there are generally three areas I look for edges among teams in bowl season:
1. Who has the motivational edge?
2. Who has the smarter/better coach?
3. Who has the better QB?
This isn't the end all be all for a bowl matchup, but if you can find a team with edges in all 3 areas, you're probably looking at a team that should be a DD favorite, and if you don't see that, you probably have yourself a very logical play. In most cases you won't see a big discrepancy in these areas, so I won't be harping on them constantly in the write ups, but when they're there, I'll let you know. I'm going to start with the first week or so of games up until Christmas.
1. BYU +3 v Arizona: Ok, here is one game where all three of the aforementioned factors might be on one side. Actually, I know that Bronco Mendenhall is a superior coach to Mike Stoops, and frankly so does Mike Stoops and everyone on both teams. Truthfully, both of these teams were not very good when they ventured on the road this year. BYU was shellacked in their game at TCU, and imploded in the 4th quarter at Utah. Arizona, meanwhile, gave up 55 points at Oregon, 36 at New Mexico, 28 @ Wazzou, the most pathetic excuse for a football team we saw all year, and 24 in an embarrassing run D display at Stanford. The two teams are similar in the passing game, both offensively and defensively, with perhaps a slight edge to BYU due to a recent move toward a more conservative running attack for Arizona. But there isn't much of a comparison in the running games. Arizona is giving up more than 5 yards a rush on the road, and Harvey Unga and company can run it for sure, as their 7.0 per rush numbers vs the 14 rush D in the country (Utah) attest. I think BYU will have their way with Arizona's porous D in Vegas, and I think the motivational edge favors BYU as well, as MWC teams generally salivate at the chance to knock off a Pac 10 school, and they have an ownership in this bowl as the one representing their conference. Definite edge at QB, certain edge in coaching, and I also think.the motivational edge favors BYU here. And I get 3 points? OK.
2. TCU -2 v Boise St: It's become clear that in most cases, fading Boise for any reason is generally not a good idea. It's unclear at times how they get it done, but complete dismantlings of pretty decent teams often happen when Boise gets their hands on them. Taking a look at this year's team, they went undefeated again, garnering a lot of positive press(obviously) in the process. They score 45-49 every week against the dregs of the WAC(which was considerably down this year), and their defense is very good. However, they are in a place where few teams should want to find themselves, and that is looking toward a date with the TCU Horned Frogs. TCU's defense is absolutely brutal to play against, and they are frothing at the mouth right now due to some perceived dissing or a general lack of attention from the CFB press. Coach Gary Patterson was livid after his season ended because some talking head said something nice about BYU when the nicety should have been directed at TCU. Patterson is certainly still seething about that game in November when TCU's kicker shit the bed on two short FGs resulting in Utah's eventual theft of a game TCU dominated in Salt Lake. Patterson publicly begged for a shot at Boise. In my opinion, there is no doubt that TCU will have a motivational edge in this one, as even though TCU is certainly a formidable opponent, I think it is difficult for Boise to be as excited to play them in the Poinsettia Bowl as they would have been to play a BCS heavyweight. Boise also has not faced a defense even in the same stratosphere with TCU all season. In fact, only 3 of their opponents are ranked even in the top 75 in total D. TCU has played Oklahoma, Utah and BYU, and pretty much destroyed everyone else on their schedule. Perhaps the Boise pixie dust will prevail once again, but this time they are playing a well coached, pissed off, legitimate top 12 team looking to prove something. If Boise wins this, hats off to them, but I think they are headed into a hornet's nest.
3. Notre Dame -1 @Hawaii: After watching the North Shore Country Day v New England Patriots level shitkicking that ND was subjected to in the LA Coloseum 2 weeks ago, it becomes pretty understandable as to why most people, especially those with a cynical, sarcastic anti-ND bent would think that ND is going to further embarrass themselves on the island against this hopelessly medicore Hawaii squad. Hawaii's MO is to lure some team to the island who is either overmatched or unmotivated so they can ambush them in pleasant weather conditions while their wild Samoan goon squad fanbase does the same to the unsuspecting polite vacationers on the other side. Well, I suspect that ND's team will be neither overmatched nor unmotivated, since they have become the laughingstock of college football over their last 2 games. Let's put those last 2 games aside and look at ND's season as a whole. Before the USC game they had outgained 8 straight opponents, including 3 bowl teams on the road. For the year, they have allowed only 327 yards per game, good for 38th best in the country. There is no doubt that they have a significant talent advantage, since this is a rebuilding Hawaii team, and Weis is facing a first year guy in Greg McMackin. Michael Floyd will be back, so their corners will have to deal with Golden Tate and Michael Floyd on either side, and Hawaii blitzes a lot, so there should be ample opportunities for Jimmy Clausen to beat man coverage if he can keep himself from being steamrolled by the rush.There is no excuse for Fat Charlie if he doesn't bust that bowl losing streak this year. If you can't beat the 4th best team in the WAC when you should have the motivational edge, you need to just forget about catching the plane back home, stay on the island and transition into a new, but well rehearsed role as a beached whale.
Others: I lean to Navy(+3) in the early game Saturday, but it's really hard to call that game because it's a rematch(boo). Navy won the first one on the road outright as a 12 point dog due to Riley Skinner's horrific day at the office. Most people would look at that game and chalk it up as a fluke because of all the turnovers, but Navy actually got the better of Wake in that game statistically as well, as they outgained them by more than a yard per play. Navy also generally matches up well with teams that can't blow them off the field offensively, but Wake, at #103 offensively, is not one of those teams. Kaipo looks good medically, and that makes Navy much more explosive because he does a much better job than the rest of yahoos Navy has suited up at Qb this year at getting the ball to Shun White. You can almost expect a couple of long runs from him in this game. Don't forget that Navy has shut out the last 2 teams they've faced (Army and NIU) and both of those teams are pretty similar to Wake offensively.......The Colorado St/Fresno game is a complete tossup, but since Fresno generally doesn't feel like giving a shit unless they are matched up with a BCS squad, they'll probably give a half assed effort, so I'll take the points with Colorado St, who definitely is capable up putting up 30+ on Fresno even on a good day for the Bulldogs.....No real opinion on Memphis(+12) v USF, but I guess I'll take the points, since Memphis does have a pretty good offense, and USF can't possibly care about this game, and they have turned in some brutal performances this year when they were not interested. The only problem is that Memphis has stunk up the joint in their games against decent defensive squads, which USF generally is(13th in total D).....No opinion on the New Orleans bowl, but for interest purposes, I'll take the points (Southern Miss +4 v Troy). USM has been great in their last 4 games, they have a good QB and some BCS caliber athletes. Troy might too, but they're not the ones getting 4.
That's it for now.....good luck, and I'll have more right around Christmas.
1. Who has the motivational edge?
2. Who has the smarter/better coach?
3. Who has the better QB?
This isn't the end all be all for a bowl matchup, but if you can find a team with edges in all 3 areas, you're probably looking at a team that should be a DD favorite, and if you don't see that, you probably have yourself a very logical play. In most cases you won't see a big discrepancy in these areas, so I won't be harping on them constantly in the write ups, but when they're there, I'll let you know. I'm going to start with the first week or so of games up until Christmas.
1. BYU +3 v Arizona: Ok, here is one game where all three of the aforementioned factors might be on one side. Actually, I know that Bronco Mendenhall is a superior coach to Mike Stoops, and frankly so does Mike Stoops and everyone on both teams. Truthfully, both of these teams were not very good when they ventured on the road this year. BYU was shellacked in their game at TCU, and imploded in the 4th quarter at Utah. Arizona, meanwhile, gave up 55 points at Oregon, 36 at New Mexico, 28 @ Wazzou, the most pathetic excuse for a football team we saw all year, and 24 in an embarrassing run D display at Stanford. The two teams are similar in the passing game, both offensively and defensively, with perhaps a slight edge to BYU due to a recent move toward a more conservative running attack for Arizona. But there isn't much of a comparison in the running games. Arizona is giving up more than 5 yards a rush on the road, and Harvey Unga and company can run it for sure, as their 7.0 per rush numbers vs the 14 rush D in the country (Utah) attest. I think BYU will have their way with Arizona's porous D in Vegas, and I think the motivational edge favors BYU as well, as MWC teams generally salivate at the chance to knock off a Pac 10 school, and they have an ownership in this bowl as the one representing their conference. Definite edge at QB, certain edge in coaching, and I also think.the motivational edge favors BYU here. And I get 3 points? OK.
2. TCU -2 v Boise St: It's become clear that in most cases, fading Boise for any reason is generally not a good idea. It's unclear at times how they get it done, but complete dismantlings of pretty decent teams often happen when Boise gets their hands on them. Taking a look at this year's team, they went undefeated again, garnering a lot of positive press(obviously) in the process. They score 45-49 every week against the dregs of the WAC(which was considerably down this year), and their defense is very good. However, they are in a place where few teams should want to find themselves, and that is looking toward a date with the TCU Horned Frogs. TCU's defense is absolutely brutal to play against, and they are frothing at the mouth right now due to some perceived dissing or a general lack of attention from the CFB press. Coach Gary Patterson was livid after his season ended because some talking head said something nice about BYU when the nicety should have been directed at TCU. Patterson is certainly still seething about that game in November when TCU's kicker shit the bed on two short FGs resulting in Utah's eventual theft of a game TCU dominated in Salt Lake. Patterson publicly begged for a shot at Boise. In my opinion, there is no doubt that TCU will have a motivational edge in this one, as even though TCU is certainly a formidable opponent, I think it is difficult for Boise to be as excited to play them in the Poinsettia Bowl as they would have been to play a BCS heavyweight. Boise also has not faced a defense even in the same stratosphere with TCU all season. In fact, only 3 of their opponents are ranked even in the top 75 in total D. TCU has played Oklahoma, Utah and BYU, and pretty much destroyed everyone else on their schedule. Perhaps the Boise pixie dust will prevail once again, but this time they are playing a well coached, pissed off, legitimate top 12 team looking to prove something. If Boise wins this, hats off to them, but I think they are headed into a hornet's nest.
3. Notre Dame -1 @Hawaii: After watching the North Shore Country Day v New England Patriots level shitkicking that ND was subjected to in the LA Coloseum 2 weeks ago, it becomes pretty understandable as to why most people, especially those with a cynical, sarcastic anti-ND bent would think that ND is going to further embarrass themselves on the island against this hopelessly medicore Hawaii squad. Hawaii's MO is to lure some team to the island who is either overmatched or unmotivated so they can ambush them in pleasant weather conditions while their wild Samoan goon squad fanbase does the same to the unsuspecting polite vacationers on the other side. Well, I suspect that ND's team will be neither overmatched nor unmotivated, since they have become the laughingstock of college football over their last 2 games. Let's put those last 2 games aside and look at ND's season as a whole. Before the USC game they had outgained 8 straight opponents, including 3 bowl teams on the road. For the year, they have allowed only 327 yards per game, good for 38th best in the country. There is no doubt that they have a significant talent advantage, since this is a rebuilding Hawaii team, and Weis is facing a first year guy in Greg McMackin. Michael Floyd will be back, so their corners will have to deal with Golden Tate and Michael Floyd on either side, and Hawaii blitzes a lot, so there should be ample opportunities for Jimmy Clausen to beat man coverage if he can keep himself from being steamrolled by the rush.There is no excuse for Fat Charlie if he doesn't bust that bowl losing streak this year. If you can't beat the 4th best team in the WAC when you should have the motivational edge, you need to just forget about catching the plane back home, stay on the island and transition into a new, but well rehearsed role as a beached whale.
Others: I lean to Navy(+3) in the early game Saturday, but it's really hard to call that game because it's a rematch(boo). Navy won the first one on the road outright as a 12 point dog due to Riley Skinner's horrific day at the office. Most people would look at that game and chalk it up as a fluke because of all the turnovers, but Navy actually got the better of Wake in that game statistically as well, as they outgained them by more than a yard per play. Navy also generally matches up well with teams that can't blow them off the field offensively, but Wake, at #103 offensively, is not one of those teams. Kaipo looks good medically, and that makes Navy much more explosive because he does a much better job than the rest of yahoos Navy has suited up at Qb this year at getting the ball to Shun White. You can almost expect a couple of long runs from him in this game. Don't forget that Navy has shut out the last 2 teams they've faced (Army and NIU) and both of those teams are pretty similar to Wake offensively.......The Colorado St/Fresno game is a complete tossup, but since Fresno generally doesn't feel like giving a shit unless they are matched up with a BCS squad, they'll probably give a half assed effort, so I'll take the points with Colorado St, who definitely is capable up putting up 30+ on Fresno even on a good day for the Bulldogs.....No real opinion on Memphis(+12) v USF, but I guess I'll take the points, since Memphis does have a pretty good offense, and USF can't possibly care about this game, and they have turned in some brutal performances this year when they were not interested. The only problem is that Memphis has stunk up the joint in their games against decent defensive squads, which USF generally is(13th in total D).....No opinion on the New Orleans bowl, but for interest purposes, I'll take the points (Southern Miss +4 v Troy). USM has been great in their last 4 games, they have a good QB and some BCS caliber athletes. Troy might too, but they're not the ones getting 4.
That's it for now.....good luck, and I'll have more right around Christmas.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Week 15 Musings ("Championship Week")
Sorry for the lateness....
Last week was another one of those weeks...4-7 overall, highlighted by some miserable handicapping, most notably with South Carolina and UTEP(though I heard that the Miners had a flu epidemic that week, so they can be partially excused.) South Carolina just stunk, and I really should have seen that coming, since the Ball Coach is beyond overrated at this point.Why do people still give this guy props. The visor flings and gnashing of teeth has outnumbered the smarmy grins by about a 10 to 1 ratio in recent years. How many medieval beatdowns is it going to take until we all figure out that he's no better than the next guy when it comes to offensive schemes? Also, you might have heard that UCLA gave up a total of 120 yards in their game vs Arizona St, yet still failed to cover a double digit spread, thanks to their handing ASU 4, count em 4 defensive scores and a 60 yard punt return that set up another FG. What are the chances that a team could give up 4 defensive TDs and not be counted on for a cover by Pete LaVette? 5%? Whatever...the 4-7 week gets us to 84-66 for the year on the numbereds (56%). We need a good week this week. I also think I am going to keep close track of the bowls this year, so we won't close out the numbers until the end of the bowl season. Still hoping for at least 57%.
Lots of coaching casualties this week, and wouldn't you know it, good old dickface got tossed out at Auburn. So did Sly Croom!! Two of my favorite coaches to either intensely dislike(Tuberville) or pity(Sly) are now gone. I'll have to take inventory, because I'm not even sure who I like and dislike anymore. On to the week...you are not going to believe this, but I am on all favorites this week. I'm borderline ashamed of myself, but these are the right sides.
1. Ball St -14 1/2 v Buffalo: I would consider buying this down to 14, but that might be expensive because this spread may have climbed to 15. I'll be doing it, though to be safe. Ball St comes into this game under some criticism in some quarters because they refused a chance to play Boise in the Humanitarian Bowl on the Blue turf. Count me among those who don't fault them for that. I'm pretty excited about a potential Boise/TCU matchup in the Poinsettia Bowl anyway, so I'm not too disappointed about it. Anyway, Ball St needs this game to put the finishing touches on an undefeated regular season, and only Buffalo remains in the way. The Bulls are a much improved squad in recent years, but I just don't see them competing in this one. Buffalo has a nice offense, especially at the skill positions as QB Willy, RB Starks and WR Roosevelt all are solid players. But as a whole, Buffalo isn't much better than a middle of the pack squad, as they won 2 OT games in the MAC and a third on a Hail Mary as time expired, so 7-5 could easily be 4-8. Ball St, meanwhile hasn't really been stopped by anyone all season, and Buffalo, with it's 94th ranked overall defense will be no departure from that. These two teams, with just about all of the same players, matched up last year and it wasn't even a ballgame, as Ball was up 28-0 early in the second quarter. I just don't see Buffalo getting many stops in this game, and their offense, while competent, isn't explosive enough to keep up on the scoreboard. I can see a 45-17 type game rather easily.
2. Florida -9 1/2 v Alabama: First of all, let me say that this pains me greatly to write. I had every intention of being on Bama in this game, and I will be rooting hard for them, but after closer inspection and reflection, they are probably going to lose this game handily, and I like money, so I'll be on Florida. If you spend time trying to make a case for Alabama, you have to point to their ability to "control the clock" to keep the Florida offense off the field. Whenever your hear that as a strategy for a team, how does that work out? Every once in awhile, you'll see a game like Nebraska v Texas Tech this year, but for the most part, the explosive team blows the grinders out. Another supposed arrow in the Bama quiver is their defense, but I would submit to you that Florida's is just about as good, ranking 7th nationally in yards per play, while Bama is ranked 3rd. If Bama is going to hang in this game, they have to be able to get off to a good start, get ahead, get some breaks and wear Florida down. I just don't see that happening. While Bama can run the ball, the fact still remains that they struggle to throw the ball. JP Wilson has not hurt them this year, but in this environment, we're talking about a different set of circumstances. We all know that the omniscient Urban Meyer is going to control all the breaks to go Florida's way, so when they get a twice tipped pass for a 65 yard TD to open the game, what will Bama do then? If Florida stacks the line and stops the run, the game is esentially over, because as good as Alabama's defense is, the difference in speed is still too much to overcome. They are going to give up points in this game, and unless JP Wilson turns into some latter day version of Norm Van Brocklin, Bama won't be able to keep up. It's true that I can conjure up a scenario where Saban and company go in and get the job done through hard work, physicality and dirty tricks, but how much more likely is it that Florida dominates the Tide on defense and has it's normal game on offense, leading to a rout? I'd say 3 or 4 times more likely. Also, don't get excited about that spread. When a team scores like Florida does, and can put up 30-40 points on anyone, 9 1/2 isn't a lot. Bama could play a great game and still not cover that, especially if Florida gets the breaks they are accustomed to. And since I will be rooting hard emotionally for Bama, you can bet the farm that they'll get 'em.
3. Oklahoma -16 1/2 v Missouri: The fact remains that Oklahoma basically cannot be stopped at this point. It's child's play for them, and has been in every game since the second half vs Texas when the inexplicably went through a 4 drive span without scoring, leading to their loss. The more I see them, the more I think that was a fluke. Nobody in the Big 12 can stop them... certainly not Missouri, who ranks 117th in the country in passing yards against. Think Sam Bradford might have a chance to be successful this week? Remember that when Missouri teed it up with good teams this year, they lost. Oklahoma St beat them rather soundly, and Mizzou clearly demonstrated that they did not belong on the same field with Texas. If you remember, here's how that game went: Mizzou: 3 and out. Texas TD. Mizzou 3 and out. Texas TD. Mizzou 3 and out Texas TD. Mizzou three and out. Texas TD. Commence garbage time. In order to hang in this game, they will have to have their best game of the year by far on offense and figure out some way to revamp their pass defense to keep OU under 50. I really see no evidence that they are any different from any of the other defenses that have given up 60+ to OU recently, and they are not coming in with any positive momentum, having blown their rivalry game with KU. Oklahoma will not be taking their foot off the gas either. Even if Sam Bradford gets him arm caught in a thresher or something, I think OU covers this. Beatdown.
4. @Arizona -10 1/2 v Arizona St: The Sun Devils won't have Kevin Craft to bail them out this week. Arizona is very good at home, on both sides of the ball. Arizona St's offense is a borderline embarrassment, and Arizona will be jacked up to rub it in their faces. I'm not impressed with the intestinal fortitude of ASU, so if they get behind early, don't expect much of a fight. I know it's another favorite, but it's another game where the dog finds itself in a tough matchup. Expect a lot of Rudy Carpenter writhing on the turf, then dramatically limping off to the sideline, only to come back and get pummeled again. He might actually openly weep. Look for that.
5. Navy -10 1/2 v Army: I'm sure everyone is stunned on this one. 5 favorites in a row, and I'm almost always on Army in this game. Actually, I had to rewrite my paragraph on this one, since I originally liked Army, due to their relatively solid season and their previous nice performance against Air Force. However, there are too many obstacles for Army in this one. First, it appears that Kaipo is going to play in this game for Navy, and Army's QB Chip Bowden sprained his ankle in practice this week. That changes everything. For Army to have a chance in this one, they need to have all hands on deck at 100%. A sprained ankle is a big deal. Even if he plays, it's still going to hamper him. Navy is weak against the pass, but they are 40th in the country against the run, which is all Army can do. Army is unquestionably the worst passing offense in America (4 yards per attempt). In addition, their special teams are a nightmare, and you can pretty much chalk up a turnover disadvantage for them, since Navy has been very good all year at forcing turnovers. If Army gets behind, or has to make up for a turnover or two, it's sayonnara. I will destroy my TV if I see Jarrod Bryant trotting out there at QB, but even if Kaipo wimps out again, they'll probably go with Ricky Dobbs at QB. Again. I will probably be emotionally rooting for the other side, but my head is telling me that there are too many factors going against Army here, and the line continues to trend down.
6. @Troy -11 v Arky St: I generally like Arkansas St because they always seem to outgain their opponents, but Troy has some sort of voodoo curse over them. I remember last year, when a dominant at home Arky St team welcomed a struggling Troy bunch and troy somehow thumped them 27-0 in Jonesboro. This year, it's kind of more of the same, as Arky St has been solid at home, but a different team on the road. Troy meanwhile is outgaining opponents 504-235 at home and outscoring them by an average of 40-8. Combine the jedi mind tricks with a clear advantage on paper, and you have yourself a recipe for a rout.
Others: Love the fact that Pete Carroll is directing the Trojans to wear red in their game at UCLA. That's sweet. Both teams home uniforms are miles better than their roadies..love it. USC is laying 32, the same number they did to ND. It's a road game, but not really, as UCLA is selling out the Rose Bowl so plenty of Trojan fans will be there. USC certainly can shut out UCLA if they feel like it, and would probably win the game even if the only offensive player they suited up was the punter. What are the chances Kevin Craft suffers a couple turnovers in this one? Right, pretty good. 32 is ton, though, and the good feelings with the whole uniform situation might lead PC to keep it down. Also, I don't trust Neuheisel. It would surprise me to see USC players dropping like flies because he snuck into their locker room and spiked their Gatorade. USC really should hammer them though.....I'm leaning toward BC in their pick 'em game with VT that nobody cares to watch. They played once, and VT got two defensive scores and still lost. If you take away Tyrod Taylor's scrambling in that game, VT totaled about 100 yards of offense. They won't be able to run it on BC. BC has their backup going in this one, but that might be a good thing considering how turnover prone starter Chris Crane has been. BC has also shown an ability to come up with big picks, and VT's Qbs have a 5/10 ratio. I also think BC is a little better in the skill positions, so I'll give them the edge to play in an Orange Bowl that will be appealing to about 10 people in the entire country. Since there will be a line on that game, count me among the ten.....The C-USA game is a really interesting game. If it was on a neutral site I would be all over East Carolina +DD vs Tulsa, but for some reason, it's at Tulsa. Since Tulsa's lowest output at home this year is 49 points, it would take a heck of a lot more than 12 1/2 points to go against the Golden Hurricane..... I also lean to UCONN(-2 1/2) over Pitt as a fade on Wanny. There isn't much to play for in Pitt's case, so coaching and motivation will come into play a bit more here. Not a good sign if you're a Pitt backer and you're on the road against a well coached team.
Last week was another one of those weeks...4-7 overall, highlighted by some miserable handicapping, most notably with South Carolina and UTEP(though I heard that the Miners had a flu epidemic that week, so they can be partially excused.) South Carolina just stunk, and I really should have seen that coming, since the Ball Coach is beyond overrated at this point.Why do people still give this guy props. The visor flings and gnashing of teeth has outnumbered the smarmy grins by about a 10 to 1 ratio in recent years. How many medieval beatdowns is it going to take until we all figure out that he's no better than the next guy when it comes to offensive schemes? Also, you might have heard that UCLA gave up a total of 120 yards in their game vs Arizona St, yet still failed to cover a double digit spread, thanks to their handing ASU 4, count em 4 defensive scores and a 60 yard punt return that set up another FG. What are the chances that a team could give up 4 defensive TDs and not be counted on for a cover by Pete LaVette? 5%? Whatever...the 4-7 week gets us to 84-66 for the year on the numbereds (56%). We need a good week this week. I also think I am going to keep close track of the bowls this year, so we won't close out the numbers until the end of the bowl season. Still hoping for at least 57%.
Lots of coaching casualties this week, and wouldn't you know it, good old dickface got tossed out at Auburn. So did Sly Croom!! Two of my favorite coaches to either intensely dislike(Tuberville) or pity(Sly) are now gone. I'll have to take inventory, because I'm not even sure who I like and dislike anymore. On to the week...you are not going to believe this, but I am on all favorites this week. I'm borderline ashamed of myself, but these are the right sides.
1. Ball St -14 1/2 v Buffalo: I would consider buying this down to 14, but that might be expensive because this spread may have climbed to 15. I'll be doing it, though to be safe. Ball St comes into this game under some criticism in some quarters because they refused a chance to play Boise in the Humanitarian Bowl on the Blue turf. Count me among those who don't fault them for that. I'm pretty excited about a potential Boise/TCU matchup in the Poinsettia Bowl anyway, so I'm not too disappointed about it. Anyway, Ball St needs this game to put the finishing touches on an undefeated regular season, and only Buffalo remains in the way. The Bulls are a much improved squad in recent years, but I just don't see them competing in this one. Buffalo has a nice offense, especially at the skill positions as QB Willy, RB Starks and WR Roosevelt all are solid players. But as a whole, Buffalo isn't much better than a middle of the pack squad, as they won 2 OT games in the MAC and a third on a Hail Mary as time expired, so 7-5 could easily be 4-8. Ball St, meanwhile hasn't really been stopped by anyone all season, and Buffalo, with it's 94th ranked overall defense will be no departure from that. These two teams, with just about all of the same players, matched up last year and it wasn't even a ballgame, as Ball was up 28-0 early in the second quarter. I just don't see Buffalo getting many stops in this game, and their offense, while competent, isn't explosive enough to keep up on the scoreboard. I can see a 45-17 type game rather easily.
2. Florida -9 1/2 v Alabama: First of all, let me say that this pains me greatly to write. I had every intention of being on Bama in this game, and I will be rooting hard for them, but after closer inspection and reflection, they are probably going to lose this game handily, and I like money, so I'll be on Florida. If you spend time trying to make a case for Alabama, you have to point to their ability to "control the clock" to keep the Florida offense off the field. Whenever your hear that as a strategy for a team, how does that work out? Every once in awhile, you'll see a game like Nebraska v Texas Tech this year, but for the most part, the explosive team blows the grinders out. Another supposed arrow in the Bama quiver is their defense, but I would submit to you that Florida's is just about as good, ranking 7th nationally in yards per play, while Bama is ranked 3rd. If Bama is going to hang in this game, they have to be able to get off to a good start, get ahead, get some breaks and wear Florida down. I just don't see that happening. While Bama can run the ball, the fact still remains that they struggle to throw the ball. JP Wilson has not hurt them this year, but in this environment, we're talking about a different set of circumstances. We all know that the omniscient Urban Meyer is going to control all the breaks to go Florida's way, so when they get a twice tipped pass for a 65 yard TD to open the game, what will Bama do then? If Florida stacks the line and stops the run, the game is esentially over, because as good as Alabama's defense is, the difference in speed is still too much to overcome. They are going to give up points in this game, and unless JP Wilson turns into some latter day version of Norm Van Brocklin, Bama won't be able to keep up. It's true that I can conjure up a scenario where Saban and company go in and get the job done through hard work, physicality and dirty tricks, but how much more likely is it that Florida dominates the Tide on defense and has it's normal game on offense, leading to a rout? I'd say 3 or 4 times more likely. Also, don't get excited about that spread. When a team scores like Florida does, and can put up 30-40 points on anyone, 9 1/2 isn't a lot. Bama could play a great game and still not cover that, especially if Florida gets the breaks they are accustomed to. And since I will be rooting hard emotionally for Bama, you can bet the farm that they'll get 'em.
3. Oklahoma -16 1/2 v Missouri: The fact remains that Oklahoma basically cannot be stopped at this point. It's child's play for them, and has been in every game since the second half vs Texas when the inexplicably went through a 4 drive span without scoring, leading to their loss. The more I see them, the more I think that was a fluke. Nobody in the Big 12 can stop them... certainly not Missouri, who ranks 117th in the country in passing yards against. Think Sam Bradford might have a chance to be successful this week? Remember that when Missouri teed it up with good teams this year, they lost. Oklahoma St beat them rather soundly, and Mizzou clearly demonstrated that they did not belong on the same field with Texas. If you remember, here's how that game went: Mizzou: 3 and out. Texas TD. Mizzou 3 and out. Texas TD. Mizzou 3 and out Texas TD. Mizzou three and out. Texas TD. Commence garbage time. In order to hang in this game, they will have to have their best game of the year by far on offense and figure out some way to revamp their pass defense to keep OU under 50. I really see no evidence that they are any different from any of the other defenses that have given up 60+ to OU recently, and they are not coming in with any positive momentum, having blown their rivalry game with KU. Oklahoma will not be taking their foot off the gas either. Even if Sam Bradford gets him arm caught in a thresher or something, I think OU covers this. Beatdown.
4. @Arizona -10 1/2 v Arizona St: The Sun Devils won't have Kevin Craft to bail them out this week. Arizona is very good at home, on both sides of the ball. Arizona St's offense is a borderline embarrassment, and Arizona will be jacked up to rub it in their faces. I'm not impressed with the intestinal fortitude of ASU, so if they get behind early, don't expect much of a fight. I know it's another favorite, but it's another game where the dog finds itself in a tough matchup. Expect a lot of Rudy Carpenter writhing on the turf, then dramatically limping off to the sideline, only to come back and get pummeled again. He might actually openly weep. Look for that.
5. Navy -10 1/2 v Army: I'm sure everyone is stunned on this one. 5 favorites in a row, and I'm almost always on Army in this game. Actually, I had to rewrite my paragraph on this one, since I originally liked Army, due to their relatively solid season and their previous nice performance against Air Force. However, there are too many obstacles for Army in this one. First, it appears that Kaipo is going to play in this game for Navy, and Army's QB Chip Bowden sprained his ankle in practice this week. That changes everything. For Army to have a chance in this one, they need to have all hands on deck at 100%. A sprained ankle is a big deal. Even if he plays, it's still going to hamper him. Navy is weak against the pass, but they are 40th in the country against the run, which is all Army can do. Army is unquestionably the worst passing offense in America (4 yards per attempt). In addition, their special teams are a nightmare, and you can pretty much chalk up a turnover disadvantage for them, since Navy has been very good all year at forcing turnovers. If Army gets behind, or has to make up for a turnover or two, it's sayonnara. I will destroy my TV if I see Jarrod Bryant trotting out there at QB, but even if Kaipo wimps out again, they'll probably go with Ricky Dobbs at QB. Again. I will probably be emotionally rooting for the other side, but my head is telling me that there are too many factors going against Army here, and the line continues to trend down.
6. @Troy -11 v Arky St: I generally like Arkansas St because they always seem to outgain their opponents, but Troy has some sort of voodoo curse over them. I remember last year, when a dominant at home Arky St team welcomed a struggling Troy bunch and troy somehow thumped them 27-0 in Jonesboro. This year, it's kind of more of the same, as Arky St has been solid at home, but a different team on the road. Troy meanwhile is outgaining opponents 504-235 at home and outscoring them by an average of 40-8. Combine the jedi mind tricks with a clear advantage on paper, and you have yourself a recipe for a rout.
Others: Love the fact that Pete Carroll is directing the Trojans to wear red in their game at UCLA. That's sweet. Both teams home uniforms are miles better than their roadies..love it. USC is laying 32, the same number they did to ND. It's a road game, but not really, as UCLA is selling out the Rose Bowl so plenty of Trojan fans will be there. USC certainly can shut out UCLA if they feel like it, and would probably win the game even if the only offensive player they suited up was the punter. What are the chances Kevin Craft suffers a couple turnovers in this one? Right, pretty good. 32 is ton, though, and the good feelings with the whole uniform situation might lead PC to keep it down. Also, I don't trust Neuheisel. It would surprise me to see USC players dropping like flies because he snuck into their locker room and spiked their Gatorade. USC really should hammer them though.....I'm leaning toward BC in their pick 'em game with VT that nobody cares to watch. They played once, and VT got two defensive scores and still lost. If you take away Tyrod Taylor's scrambling in that game, VT totaled about 100 yards of offense. They won't be able to run it on BC. BC has their backup going in this one, but that might be a good thing considering how turnover prone starter Chris Crane has been. BC has also shown an ability to come up with big picks, and VT's Qbs have a 5/10 ratio. I also think BC is a little better in the skill positions, so I'll give them the edge to play in an Orange Bowl that will be appealing to about 10 people in the entire country. Since there will be a line on that game, count me among the ten.....The C-USA game is a really interesting game. If it was on a neutral site I would be all over East Carolina +DD vs Tulsa, but for some reason, it's at Tulsa. Since Tulsa's lowest output at home this year is 49 points, it would take a heck of a lot more than 12 1/2 points to go against the Golden Hurricane..... I also lean to UCONN(-2 1/2) over Pitt as a fade on Wanny. There isn't much to play for in Pitt's case, so coaching and motivation will come into play a bit more here. Not a good sign if you're a Pitt backer and you're on the road against a well coached team.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)