New Year's Day was a disaster, moving the numbered musings to 10-9 for the bowl season. Bad beats galore...they definitely made up for the smidgen of good fortune I had gotten in some of the previous games of the season. The musings went 1-5 on 1/1, with Mississippi St's destruction of DickRod being the only winner of the day. I feel like I was on the right side on 4 of them, (TT, Miss St, Florida, TCU) the absolute wrong side on 1 (Mich St) and one that could have gone either way (UCONN). I was half expecting Matt McGloin to toss that pick 6 late to blow the Penn State cover. It happens, as we all know. A lot.
20. Stanford -3 1/2 v Virginia Tech: I just don't see a scenario where Harbaugh isn't the happy coach geting interviewed at the end of the game. This is definitely his swan song at Stanford, as most people expect him to either take the Michigan job once Dick Rod gets canned or the 49ers job. This is a matchup of 2 really good teams..both are solid in both phases on offense, but I think VT will be exposed on defense. I think Harbaugh will take extreme advantage of VT's inability to stop the run and then play action them to death with Luck. . Defensively, Stanford has shown an ability to stop the run, and their pass defense is among the best in the country.
21. Arkansas +3 1/2 v Ohio St: At this point, who in their right mind would lay points with a Big ten team against a good SEC squad, espcially considering the carnage that occurred on 1/1? All kinds of distractions for Ohio St, since most people think the kids who got suspended for selling jerseys and the like should be out for the bowl game, and OSU has had to spend a lot of time on that damage control. The focus on this game revolves around the Arky offense vs the Ohio State defense, since those are the sides that each team depends on. Ohio St is ranked 3rd in total defense, but those numbers have been accumulated against teams that can't hold a candle to Arkansas in the passing game. OSU has not seen a passing game like this. On the flip side, Arkansas is ranked 3rd in total offense, and they HAVE faced defenses like Ohio St, having moved the ball and scored effectively on the likes of Alabama and LSU. They have great balance now that Knile Davis is the starting RB..he's averaging more than 6 yards a carry. Arkansas is no pushover on defense(ranked 33rd nationally) and I think they can gameplan to make Pryor beat them. So basically, I have a good SEC team facing a Big Ten team in SEC country, and I'm getting points. Based on what we've seen, and with OSU's prior history against the SEC, I think you have to take the points here.
More later.
Monday, January 3, 2011
Saturday, January 1, 2011
New Years Musings
2-0 last night gets us to 9-5 in the numbered musings, and damn if I didn't go 4/4 yesterday overall as I ended up taking the points with USF. Believe it or not, the also rans are 6-0 on sides. I continue to be 0 for my life on totals. Here's for today! Happy New Year. This used to be easily the most fun day of the year, now it's just merely a great day. Big Ten is 2-0 to start the bowls, but I think it goes careening downhill today, at least striaght up.
15 Texas Tech -8 v Northwestern: (Bet US): I hate to fade Pat Fitzgerald, but this Northwestern team is just nowhere close to the teams we're used to seeing from Fitz. they can't stop anyone on defense, as their last two games showed, and they've been totally non-competitive since Dan Persa went out. Texas tech's defense is their achilles heel, but NW can't do much of anything with Evan Watkins back there, unles he's miraculously figured out how to be an effective Qb in the past 3 weeks of practice. Texas tech's 17th ranked offense will be going against a defense that has given up more than 8 yards per play their last two games. I'll be rooting for the Cats, but I think the Big Ten's perfect start ends in this one..and probably gets worse from there.
16. Michigan State +10(bodog) v Alabama: Too many points for Bama here. I think motivation will be an issue for them since they already have 3 losses in a year they expected to repeat as National Champs, and even though they get a Big ten team that had a great year, it's not one of the name schools. These two teams are pretty similar statistically...I just think it has a chance to be a sleepwalking type game for Bama here.
17. Penn State +7 v Florida: I really don't like Penn State's defense, but Florida's offense is even more offensive. I see no reason to lay 7 points with a team that can't score. Maybe they'll have a superhuman effort for Meyer in his last game, but I have to go off what I've seen. Penn State has been better on offense since switching to McGloin...he's good enough to get enough points to cover this I believe, assuming he doesn't toss a couple pick 6's.
18. Mississippi State -3 (bought the 1/2 pt) v Michigan. I agree with the masses that Michigan will score on MSU, but MSU has gotten a lot better on offense the past couple of games against muchbetter defenses than this.They are also pretty solid in every phase..no real glaring weaknesses, unlike Mich Shit Gan. Michigan will find a way to fuck things up like they always do under DickRod. They'll look unstoppable for awhile, then they'll kill themselves with turnovers, or their terrible kicking game, or their horrendous coverage units. Then DRob will get hurt like he does every game. I'll be stunned if they sack up and actually win this.
19. TCU -3 v Wisconsin: Offenses good. TCU defense good. Wisconsin defense just ok. That pretty much sums up the basis of my play here. Add to that that TCu will have a huge edge in the return games, and there is a distinct motivational edge for TCU in this one in my opinion, and it just makes me feel even better about the side. I'll be rooting my ass off for Wisconsin, but I think they have fallen in absolute unconditional love with themselves. How could they not, with wvery media member slobbing their knobs over the past 60 days? Much has been made about the schedule discrepancy, but you can find some close to common opponents on their schedules, and TCU matches up just fine.
20. UCONN +17(bodog) v Oklahoma: Big risk here, since UCONN has never been on this stage, but they have experience beating big time programs, having throttled Spurrier last year in some also ran bowl game. Oklahoma just isn't that impressive on paper, and with Bob Stoops' awful BCS record, how do you lay this much? Another tough motivational situation here for Oklahoma as well. How do you get up for UCONN? If UCONN can slow down the quick spread attack(and I'm not sure if OC Kevin Wilson has left for IU yet) they will be in good shape. They're ranked 15th against the pass nationally, so we'll see.
That's it, take care!!!
15 Texas Tech -8 v Northwestern: (Bet US): I hate to fade Pat Fitzgerald, but this Northwestern team is just nowhere close to the teams we're used to seeing from Fitz. they can't stop anyone on defense, as their last two games showed, and they've been totally non-competitive since Dan Persa went out. Texas tech's defense is their achilles heel, but NW can't do much of anything with Evan Watkins back there, unles he's miraculously figured out how to be an effective Qb in the past 3 weeks of practice. Texas tech's 17th ranked offense will be going against a defense that has given up more than 8 yards per play their last two games. I'll be rooting for the Cats, but I think the Big Ten's perfect start ends in this one..and probably gets worse from there.
16. Michigan State +10(bodog) v Alabama: Too many points for Bama here. I think motivation will be an issue for them since they already have 3 losses in a year they expected to repeat as National Champs, and even though they get a Big ten team that had a great year, it's not one of the name schools. These two teams are pretty similar statistically...I just think it has a chance to be a sleepwalking type game for Bama here.
17. Penn State +7 v Florida: I really don't like Penn State's defense, but Florida's offense is even more offensive. I see no reason to lay 7 points with a team that can't score. Maybe they'll have a superhuman effort for Meyer in his last game, but I have to go off what I've seen. Penn State has been better on offense since switching to McGloin...he's good enough to get enough points to cover this I believe, assuming he doesn't toss a couple pick 6's.
18. Mississippi State -3 (bought the 1/2 pt) v Michigan. I agree with the masses that Michigan will score on MSU, but MSU has gotten a lot better on offense the past couple of games against muchbetter defenses than this.They are also pretty solid in every phase..no real glaring weaknesses, unlike Mich Shit Gan. Michigan will find a way to fuck things up like they always do under DickRod. They'll look unstoppable for awhile, then they'll kill themselves with turnovers, or their terrible kicking game, or their horrendous coverage units. Then DRob will get hurt like he does every game. I'll be stunned if they sack up and actually win this.
19. TCU -3 v Wisconsin: Offenses good. TCU defense good. Wisconsin defense just ok. That pretty much sums up the basis of my play here. Add to that that TCu will have a huge edge in the return games, and there is a distinct motivational edge for TCU in this one in my opinion, and it just makes me feel even better about the side. I'll be rooting my ass off for Wisconsin, but I think they have fallen in absolute unconditional love with themselves. How could they not, with wvery media member slobbing their knobs over the past 60 days? Much has been made about the schedule discrepancy, but you can find some close to common opponents on their schedules, and TCU matches up just fine.
20. UCONN +17(bodog) v Oklahoma: Big risk here, since UCONN has never been on this stage, but they have experience beating big time programs, having throttled Spurrier last year in some also ran bowl game. Oklahoma just isn't that impressive on paper, and with Bob Stoops' awful BCS record, how do you lay this much? Another tough motivational situation here for Oklahoma as well. How do you get up for UCONN? If UCONN can slow down the quick spread attack(and I'm not sure if OC Kevin Wilson has left for IU yet) they will be in good shape. They're ranked 15th against the pass nationally, so we'll see.
That's it, take care!!!
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