Pre-season Musings 2011

Well, here we go again. College football is just around the corner. As I looked back on some of the previous editions of the preseason musings, the overwhelming theme, and general tone of pretty much all of them was unbridled enthusiasm for the season to get here. This year, as usual, I'm looking forward to the season, but I just can't seem to muster up the excitement that I used to. There's a lot of reasons for this. 1. I'm getting older. 2. I'm getting dumber. 3. College football is mostly made up of a cesspool of people who are either complete scumbags, complete imbeciles, or both. To top it all off, we finally have to actually deal with the absurdity of the new Big Ten and their logically bankrupt divisional alignment. How wonderful.

If you're like me and take pleasure in hating people, places and things, this past offseason wasn't a winner for you. I was starting to brew up a nice litle bit of hatred for the Sweater Vest and Butch Davis, thanks to their shenanigans and subsequent palms up, "It wasn't my fault" attitude toward the complete dereliction of their duties as caretakers of a program. Both got launched. Add to that the fact that we won't have Dick Rod and his 4-20 ATS conference record to kick around anymore. Dabo Swinney is about all that's left in terms of guys I love to hate/laugh at. Worst of all though is that we won't be treated to the comedy gold that was going to be the West Virginia season this year. Bill Stewart was understandably in the process of being kicked to the curb in favor of hotshot offensive schizofreniak Dana Holgerson. For some reason, however, WV wanted to placate Stewart, so they put together a phony coach in waiting scenario which naturally turned out to be a clusterfuck. In addition to being mentally retarded, Stewart also turned out to be a vindictive retard, foolishly trying to dig up dirt on Holgerson with the laughable hoped for result that the administration would realize they made a mistake.They would then go back to Bill on bended knee and beg for him to come back and put his players back behind the schematic 8 ball. Well, the AD found out what he was up to and launched Stewart. It turns out that Holgerson had plenty of skeletons in his closet, (booze, drunken hillbilly temper to go with a Mike Leach type outlook on life) Can you imagine how awesome that combination would have been?? We'll never know.

Now, most recently, we have the revelation that the Miami program has been some modern day version of Sodom and Gamorrah. The Death Penalty looks to be a very real possibility as we've heard rumors of some scumbag booster providing cash, cars, even hookers for a bunch of scumbag players. I was shocked to learn that one of the guys partaking in the past was Devin Hester. He didn't seem to be the kind of guy to be involved in something like that..clean cut, well spoken boy that he is. Sometimes you just never know.

In the past I've taken this space to identify a few teams that I think are going to have good years, be it in the standings or ATS and a few that are looking at some grim days ahead. This year, more than ever, it seems like teams are primed for good or maybe even great years due only to their schedule. Let's start with those.

1. Virginia Tech: I really don't see a potential loss on their schedule until the ACC title game. Note the schedule:
Home games: Appy st, Arky St, Clemson, Miami, BC, UNC. Some decent teams in there, but none that are likely to go into Blacksburg and get a W, especially now with that dirtbag Butch Davis looking for work.
Road games: ECU, Marshall, Wake, Duke, GA Tech, Virginia. ECU and Marshall both look like they'll be down from a year ago, an the rest are also rans. The only POSSIBLE loss in my opinion for Va tech would be Ga Tech, but Paul Johnson is losing a lot. It appears to me that they'll be favored in every game this year. Frankly, I'm not overly excited about their team on the field, but with that schedule, I don't think it'll matter that they've had much better teams in the recent past than this one.

2. Iowa: I haven't seen anyone bring this up, but I think Iowa has an outstanding chance to be traveling to Nebraska on Thanksgiving weekend with a perfect record. This is despite the fact that they have lost a bunch of good players and are nowhere near as good as they've been in the past couple of years. Before that Nebraska game, their road games are with Iowa St, Penn State(who Ferentz has owned), Minnesota and Purdue. Their home games are with 2 patsies, Pitt, Michigan, MSU, Indiana and Northwestern. They've struggled with NW, but they've owned MSU in Iowa City and they'll be favored against Michigan. Definite possibilities with that schedule..no Wisconsin, no Ohio State, and the rest of the heavies at home save Nebraska, but the Nebraska game might come too late for everyone else in that division. Having said all that, if they get matched up with an LSU or someone like that in the Outback Bowl, remember that this team is not as good as the previous Iowa outfits and be prepared pull a Savick and unzip and unload on whoever the SEC sends to that one.

3. Houston: Here's another team that's sporting a schedule that I can't find a loss on. IN CUSA, the only team on the schedule that might be able to hang with them is Tulsa. However, Tulsa has a coaching staff that's brand new and was a high school staff 4 years ago. QB Case Keenum is back for a 5th year after missing most of last year with an injury. They might be double digit favorites in all their games until that finale with Tulsa. They are probably the best bet of the NQs to go undefeated...better than Boise. They got 13 votes in the first AP poll. Once they handle UCLA in their opener, that'll change, and they'll probably be sniffing the top 10 by Nov 1st.

More teams I like.

1. South Carolina: Just a couple years ago things looked dicey for the OBC. He was running QBs off with his wild mood swings and the wins, especially substantial ones, just weren't coming. Then all of a sudden, the state of South Carolina started churning out superstar high school players. Not just good players, but consensus #1 players at their positions. And the Ball Coach started landing all of them.Top CB Stephon Gillmore. Top WR Alshon Jeffery. Top RB Marcus Lattimore. Finally Top DE and consensus #1 player overall Jadaveon Clowney. Now they're all on campus in Columbia. Throw in that Georgia and Florida have had hiccups at the same time, and that Tennesee appears to have fallen and can't get up, and things are looking up for the Gamecocks. I originally thought that last year might be their only window of opportunity for a possible Atlanta trip, but then Urban Meyer split, so the Florida thing turned into more than a 1 year anomaly. Also, the Cocks avoid Alabama and LSU from the West. You can make a case that Alshon Jeffery and Marcus Lattimore could be the top players at their positions in the country, certainly at least All America candidates. Their defense returns more sacks than anyone in the country by a mile, so their defense will be no pushover either. If Stephen Garcia can avoid being a complete douchebag for 12 weeks this fall, they look to be in very good shape for a repeat of last year.

2. Arkansas: The Hogs show up on this list almost every year, and they made me look good last year by reaching a BCS bowl. They took a massive shot to the chops when RB Knile Davis ruined his knee in fall practice and will be out for the year, but they have a couple guys who can step in there. I happen to think that losing Ryan Mallett to graduation might be a good thing. He proved to be coward in the clutch in truly big situations, shitting the bed in the bowl and in their early season game with Alabama in game defining drives. He also seemed to be more interested in smoking weed and fitting in with the hood rats on the team than dedicating himself to making sure he threw it to the right guys on Saturday. With Bobby Petrino at the helm, I'm unfazed by any QB change. This guy made Casey Dick look like a phenom at times. They also return 4 of the top 6 returning receivers in the SEC. Everyone is picking them for 3rd, even 4th in the SEC West. I think they'll finish higher than LSU, who a couple preseason mags have as your National Champion, ridiculous as that proposition might seem.

3. Michigan: Believe it or not, I'm kind of doing a 180 on these guys. The disappearance of Dick Rod is a powerful thing. You'd assume that they are going to struggle because they will be changing schemes on both sides of the ball, but they have as much offensive talent returning as anyone, especially on the offensive side of things. Every conceivable yard of offense is returning. I agree that changing offenses is hard, but now that Brady Hoke is in there, and all Michigan Men can agree that he's the guy, the uncertainty and negativity that swirled around Dick Rod is gone. New OC Al Borges has been successful everywhere he's been, including Auburn in that undefeated season they had in '04. I'm sure he'll be able to devise some things for Denard Robinson, who remains one of the most explosive players in college football. I also think their defense will see a major improvement, since Greg Mattison represents the first non-imbecile DC they've had since Lloyd Carr was there. If they make improvement similar to what Illinois did last year once they got a legitimate DC in there, it's be leaps and bounds better than last year. Most mags have them just a spot ahead of Minnesota in their division, but I think they have a great shot to be 7-1 or even 8-0 when they go to Iowa on Nov 5th. things get tougher for them at that point in the schedule, but things won't be impossible. As for ATS, that's going to be hard to say, since their spreads are inflated because they're Michigan, but I think they have a shot at a good year.

Teams I don't like:

1. LSU: Not that I don't think that this is a good team, but there are people out there touting LSU as a National Title threat. Whoever has said that has not looked at their schedule. First of all, they play in the SEC West, which has always been tough, but now is nuclear reactor meltdown now that Mississippi St and Ole Miss have graduated out of the SEC JV. Auburn, who is ranked 22nd in the first AP poll, is probably going to bring up the rear in that division if that tells you anything. They also open with Oregon and have to travel to Morgantown to face what will probably be a souped up offense amid all the burning couches on Sept 24th. This is a team that only averaged 341 yards per game last year and was soundly outgained in the road games. Yes, they'll be good again, but they don't put up the performances necessary of a National Championship contender, especially away from home, where they were soundly outgained. They lose all of their playmakers on defense. They always play well in bowls, which I guess is a tip of the hat to the grass eater himself, but I think they are a bit overrated based on their Cotton Bowl performance.

2, Miami (FL): Well, it's a bit of a moot point now, since the world is collapsing around them as we speak, and half their team might end up being suspended, but I was not a fan of the team prior to that anyway. Miami can't function unless there is some sort of thug mentality in the program. Recent events have indicated that it can't function without the influence of hip hop decadence and boosters makin it rain either. that makes sense, because on the surface, there not a lot to be attracted to in that program without the direct influence of a pro-style South beach lifestyle. Sterile, half filled stadium 45 minutes from campus. No fan base to speak of. 33% capacity at their games. It's understandable why the players need a little extra to be convinced that the U is the place for them. The culture has to exist. With the Al Golden hire, that whole persona was going to go away and be replaced with a workmanlike, hard working culture. And that's great...I get it, Al Golden wears a tie on the field with the black cleats, looks rugged on the sideline, talks about hard-worky things, that's all great. The problem is that everyone assumes that he has accomplished something because he turned around Temple. that assumption is wrong. Temple would have been the impossible situation everyone was talking about had they stayed in the Big East and played the schedules they played in the early parts of the decade before they moved to the MAC. So basically, Golden took a team in the middle of Philidelphia that plays in an NFL stadium that was floundering, put it in one of the two worst conferences in the country to play against teams that play in 20k seat stadiums in places like Mt Pleasant Michigan and Oxford, OH. Never mind that the recruits the MAC gets to choose from are picked through 10 times over by the multitude of programs in the general vicinity of these schools. Temple SHOULD dominate the MAC. If Roosevelt Junior High is getting their asses kicked playing in the SICA East, then moves to play in a conference with Sandridge, St Emeric, Franklin, Jefferson, the IPD 4th grade, Park School and St Paul Lutheran, the turnaround is certainly not due to the magic of Jim Drexler, or Druetzler or whatever the hell his name was. Count me unimpressed with Golden. not that it's going to matter what he does at this point. They were gonna suck anyway because they don't have a quarterback with a set of balls.

3. Ohio St: I really hope that nobody is expecting this team to contend for a BCS berth this year. I don't think there is anyone doing that, but I'm still hearing people saying that it's between them and Wisconsin in their division. (Losers?) They'll have a brand new QB leading an offense that wasn't great to begin with, has no receivers or running backs have done jack shit and a line that's going to have 4 new starters until their stud tackle comes back after his 5 game suspension. Defensively, they have to replace 8 of their top 10 tacklers and their coach looks to be a deer caught in headlights. Lucky for them they start with a 2 game MAC schedule(though they might have a fight on their hands with Toledo) then get the remains of Miami, which looked to be at least somewhat of a tussle when the schedule came out. They'll probably get past Colorado, but then they start the Big Ten with Michigan St, @Nebraska, @Illinois and Wisconsin. If the Illini can put together a good effort, they have a chance to be 0-4 to start the conference season. They get some guys back for that Nebraska game, but I see some trouble for them during this stretch. taking a look at their pre suspension depth chart, I haven't heard of any of thee guys, and the rumor was that Tressel's last 2 recruiting classes were subpar. They could be in trouble.

4. Auburn: They are ranked 19th in the coaches poll and 22nd in the AP. How they are going to justify those rankings is beyond me. In their own division, Alabama, LSU, Arkansas and Mississippi St are all clearly better than them in my opinion and Ole Miss is going to be pesky as well. Basically, they lived a charmed life last year both on the field and with the NCAA that is likely to be short lived. there is no Cam Newton to cover for their warts. Nobody knows who their QB is going to be, 4 of their 5 offensive linemen need to be replaced as well as their top two receivers. Defensively, they were actually terrible last year until the MNC game, Newton just outscored people. Having said that, all of their best defensive players are gone, and only 1 of their top 7 tacklers returns. If they play well, the plays are going to be made by guys we've never heard of, and they have the flip side of the generous schedule from last year. They miss Kentucky, Vandy and Tennessee from the east, leaving the top 3 from that side to deal with. What's left? @LSU, @Arkansas, @South Carolina, @Georgia, @Clemson (Dabo notwithstanding). They also have to deal with Mississippi St, Florida, Ole Miss and a pissed off Bama team looking for revenge at home. This team could go from a MNC to 5 wins very easily. If Chizik has a good year this year, give him coach of the year. Or give it to Gus Malzahn.

5. Minnesota: Jerry Kill was a good hire for them, and they'll probably be a pain in everyone's ass before too long, but this year looks to be painful. He actually made a comment that his talent level reminds him of what he had when he took over SIU his first year there. Yikes. When the schedule comes out, you generally look at your schedule and check off the ones you expect to win. But what happens when everyone on your schedule is checking you off? The Gophers are the requisite patsy in their division(Loony?), as Nebraska, Iowa, MSU, Michigan and Northwestern all have Minny circled as a definite win on the slate. Unfortunately, so does USC, who serves as their opener. So, probably does Miami(Oh), coming off a ten win season with B10 veteran Don Treadwell now at the helm. How about North Dakota St?? Probably, since they've played better Minnesota teams in recent years and were 1 point away from taking both games. That leaves New Mexico St, maybe the worst program in the WAC. That might be the only victory, if they're even that lucky.

Some interesting trends:


---LSU is 15-30 ATS in conference, 13-23 as a home favorite under Less Miles.
---Arkansas is 16-8 ATS in conference under Petrino(my guy)
---Northwestern is 5-20 ATS as a home favorite since '01 and 3-11 under Fitzgerald. Auto fade material.
---Penn State 0-6 ATS in their last 6 as an away dog.
---Iowa is 39-21 ATS at home over the past 10 years
---A&M is 9-30 ATS as a dog in road/neutral games since '01.
---Oklahoma St is 11-3 ATS as a road favorite under Gundy.
---K St is 2-14 ATS in non conference games in their last 5 years under Snyder.
---NC State is 0-9 in their last 9 games as a road favorite, but is 23-10 as a road dog since '01. Basically, if the Pack is on the road, play the dog.
---Duke is 17-37 ATS at home in the past 10 years, 33-21 ATS on the road.
---Miami(FL) is 20-35 ATS as a home favorite since '01, 30-47 ATS in conference.
---UCLA is 4-12 ATS as an away dog under Neuheisel
---Cal is 3-12 ATS as an away favorite since '07(last time they were any good)
---UNLV is 6-24 ATS as an away dog since '05. They give up easy.
---Navy is 13-2-1 ATS against Army and AF since Johnson/Coach Ken have been there. 18-6 ATS as an away dog during the same time.
---SMU is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite under June Jones.
---Finally, I'll end with Fresno St: This guy Pat Hill is wierd. They are 12-27 ATS since '01 as a home favorite. 29-48 ATS in conference. But they are 27-19 ATS in non conference. Basically, if they can prove something in their game(except vs. Boise) they show up. If not, they don't give a shit. Off a straight up loss they are 8-34 ATS!! So he does a great job of bouncing back in tough times too, I guess.


That's it for now. Not sure why anyone would want the week to week musings after the last couple of years, but at least you can fade them. Hve a good year!!