Going to add another 2 musings here.....
15. Florida -2 v Ohio St: This line keeps getting steamed down, and the public is all over the short dog here. I understand people's repulsion for Florida...they can't score, their coaching staff is in a flux and led by a psychopath, but to me, there's value in these guys. These teams are pretty much mirror images of each other. Ohio St QB Braxton Miller has improved, but he is not the end all be all that people are hoping he'll be today. His improvement came against defenses like Purdue and Michigan...now he's going to be facing a super aggressive, athletic, lighting fast Florida defense, and he took enough sacks for OSU to be ranked 117th in the country in sacks allowed. I think they will struggle to crack 200 yards. The same might be true for Florida, but believe it or not, this OSU defense represents a drop in class for them. They've already played Alabama, LSU, South Carolina and Florida St, 4 of the top 10 defenses in the country. It's no wonder they haven't performed. Also, at the end of the day, I have a fast SEC team against a Big Ten team with a plodding offense, the game is being played in Florida, and by kickoff, it might be a pick 'em. If OSU comes out and handles them, more power to them and good for the Big 10, but I'll take my chances with the other side.
16. Okahoma St -4 v Stanford: I think Stanford will realize that Okie St's defense isn't as porous as most think, and I'd be very surprised if the 'Boys don't get at least a couple turnovers out of Luck. Also, we've seen what happens when Stanford plays a solid spread attack. I think Stanford has gotten fat on a weak schedule, and I'll be surprised if Okie St doesn't move it on them effectively. I'm not wild about the 4 points, but I think OSU wins this one, similar to how Oregon took them down.
Monday, January 2, 2012
Jan 2 Bowl Musings
The New Year's Eve games ended up being a split for the numbered musings, with Cincy winning and Virginia figuring out a way to get as out-coached as any team I have seen this year. From the opening kickoff, it was obvious that Virginia was better physically, but unfortunately for Virginia, the Auburn coaching staff knew it too, and decided to do something about it. Until late in the second hlaf, I don't think Auburn ran a "standard" play. They ran statue of liberty plays, misdirection on almost every snap, and onsides kicked after an early score to get the ball back. Virginia was the perfect foil for this strategy, falling hook line and sinker for every fake and then throwing in some horrendous tackling to boot. Oh well, you can't win em all. On to the NYD+1 bowls. 5-5 thus far.
11. Penn State +7.5 v Houston: This line has moved up to more than a score on the news that the feckless Robert Bolden will be startting in place of the concussed Matt McGloin, he of the shiner doled out by one of his receivers...no doubt tired of having to deal with passes thrown like a bullet at his ankles. No matter, I think Penn State has a great chance to win in this one. Houston is, in my opinion, a bit of a fraud. Yes, against patsies and various cupcakes they can throw the ball all over the yard, but they will be playing by far the most effective defense they've faced this year, and they'll be doing it without their star coach Kevin Sumlin. Houston has faced the 112th ranked schedule of opposing defenses, so Case Kennum will be facing some pressure, and when he's had o do that in the past, be blows things. On the other side, Houston has given up huge numbers in the running game to a lot of shitty running teams. I think Penn State will be able to run on them, and almost certainly will outgain their opponent on the ground, which usually results in outright wins for a dog in that role. We've seen what happens when Houston plays an adequate defense, and this one is more than adequate. I like the Nits outright here.
12. South Carolina -2.5 v Nebraska: To me, this looks like a one dimensional offense that can't pass going up against legit SEC defense with mutant playmakers . South Carolina actually has had a little difficulty against power running teams, but they know that nebraska can't throw it, and as a result, I think they'll be properly prepared and will force a lot of punts, not to mention their penchant for scoring on defense. On the flip side, South carolina is no great shakes on offense either, but Connor Shaw can run it, and they have the best receiver on the field as well. Also, Nebraska's defense is by no means anything to write home about. Nenraska is going to adapt to playing an SEC team as a member of the Big Ten about as well as they did in their first Big Ten road tilt (at Wisconsin). That did not go well. I don't necessarily think the Cocks have the offense to run away adn hide in this one, but they are adequate enough to win this onecomfortably.
13. Georgia -3 v Michigan State: On paper, MSU looks like it might be the better team, but you have to be able to take all things into consideration here, and there's just no way I can see MSU trotting down there to Florida and knocking off a talented SEC team near their own backyard. Georgia's defense is fast and physical and I have never been a fan of MSU QB Kirk Cousins. Of course, MSU's defense has been among the nation's best all year, but I think UGA will have enough offense to take this one. We've seen this song and dance before.
14. Wilsonsin +6 v Oregon: Here's another one on paper that worries you, especially since I kind of expect Wisconsin to have all kinds of trouble finding those little scatbacks for Oregon, but Wisconsin is highly efficient on offense, and I think they'll score on Oregon. Bret Bielema has never been the type to get blown out, and I think the Badgers will show up and play their guts out.
That's it for now, though I am close to making plays on the other two games as well tomorrow. If any are added, they'll be added early.
11. Penn State +7.5 v Houston: This line has moved up to more than a score on the news that the feckless Robert Bolden will be startting in place of the concussed Matt McGloin, he of the shiner doled out by one of his receivers...no doubt tired of having to deal with passes thrown like a bullet at his ankles. No matter, I think Penn State has a great chance to win in this one. Houston is, in my opinion, a bit of a fraud. Yes, against patsies and various cupcakes they can throw the ball all over the yard, but they will be playing by far the most effective defense they've faced this year, and they'll be doing it without their star coach Kevin Sumlin. Houston has faced the 112th ranked schedule of opposing defenses, so Case Kennum will be facing some pressure, and when he's had o do that in the past, be blows things. On the other side, Houston has given up huge numbers in the running game to a lot of shitty running teams. I think Penn State will be able to run on them, and almost certainly will outgain their opponent on the ground, which usually results in outright wins for a dog in that role. We've seen what happens when Houston plays an adequate defense, and this one is more than adequate. I like the Nits outright here.
12. South Carolina -2.5 v Nebraska: To me, this looks like a one dimensional offense that can't pass going up against legit SEC defense with mutant playmakers . South Carolina actually has had a little difficulty against power running teams, but they know that nebraska can't throw it, and as a result, I think they'll be properly prepared and will force a lot of punts, not to mention their penchant for scoring on defense. On the flip side, South carolina is no great shakes on offense either, but Connor Shaw can run it, and they have the best receiver on the field as well. Also, Nebraska's defense is by no means anything to write home about. Nenraska is going to adapt to playing an SEC team as a member of the Big Ten about as well as they did in their first Big Ten road tilt (at Wisconsin). That did not go well. I don't necessarily think the Cocks have the offense to run away adn hide in this one, but they are adequate enough to win this onecomfortably.
13. Georgia -3 v Michigan State: On paper, MSU looks like it might be the better team, but you have to be able to take all things into consideration here, and there's just no way I can see MSU trotting down there to Florida and knocking off a talented SEC team near their own backyard. Georgia's defense is fast and physical and I have never been a fan of MSU QB Kirk Cousins. Of course, MSU's defense has been among the nation's best all year, but I think UGA will have enough offense to take this one. We've seen this song and dance before.
14. Wilsonsin +6 v Oregon: Here's another one on paper that worries you, especially since I kind of expect Wisconsin to have all kinds of trouble finding those little scatbacks for Oregon, but Wisconsin is highly efficient on offense, and I think they'll score on Oregon. Bret Bielema has never been the type to get blown out, and I think the Badgers will show up and play their guts out.
That's it for now, though I am close to making plays on the other two games as well tomorrow. If any are added, they'll be added early.
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