Preseason Musings 2012

Ok fellas, so here we go again, another College Football season. It remains my favorite sport to watch, but sadly, it's becoming less so, mostly because it's being ruined before our eyes. You all have heard me rail against the idea of a playoff, especially a sizable one. Admittedly, I can live with a 4 team playoff, which apparently will become a reality in a couple years, but there's no doubt that conference realignment, the rash of idiotic uniforms, constant scandals and the overall changing of the landscape have lessened my vigor for the sport. That doesn't mean it's subdued my passion for betting on it though. Last year was a bit of a bounceback, especially the last few weeks, where the Musings hit at a 66% clip. For the year, they went 97-83 (.539). It was a money maker. Typically, in this space, I'll give you some teams to look out for, both positively and negatively, who might exceed or fall short of expectations. I'll also occasionally throw in some random thoughts and trends in there. Here it goes for this year. Teams I like: 1. Washington State. Mike Leach made a living out of surprising people when he was at Texas Tech. A review of his record there is quite eye opening...prior to his time there, Texas Tech was an alterthought. Then he showed up and they reeled off 10 bowl games in a row. I think he can achieve similar things at Wazzou. First, he'll be playing in a weaker league than he did at TT. Second, it's been proven that you can win there, as they've been to two Rose Bowls in somewhat recent memory. Third, Pullman is an outpost very similar in remoteness to Lubbock. Not that remoteness helps you win, but the more similar the overall situation, the more likely for similar success I guess. Wazzou returns 2 solid QBs a good RB and an elite receiver in Marquess Wilson. They played much better D last year, and under Leach, I think a couple of upsets can be expected. They are picked by virtually everyone to come in last in their division in the PAC 12. I think they'll do better than that. 2. West Virginia: This team was way ahead of schedule last year. As you'll remember, after Bill Stewart was mercifully relieved of his duties after his Keystone Cops detective work on Dana Holgorsen. Holgorsen was then made the head coach and thrown into the fire. In their first year under in his offense, they rose up to win the Big East and earn a BCS bowl berth, where they mauled Clemson to set themselves up with some nice momentum for this year. Most would think that the move to a tougher conference would be cause for a step back, but I don't think that'll happen. The only road game that looks prohibitive is Oklahoma St, and Oklahoma and TCU have to come to Mogantown and deal with the flaming couches. Remember that this team rolled up 440 passing yards against LSU last year in what was an off day for QB Geno Smith. Holgorsen has been through this drill before in the Big 12, and it's not like this conference is known for it's defense. Expect Smith to put up monster numbers, as his top 3 receiving threats return, as does all of their rushing yards. 3. Florida State: Definite darkhorse candidate for the MNC because I don't think anybody is going to score on them. They were a suffocating defense last year, and they have most of the primary dudes back on that side of the ball...most importantly, an alarming defensive line that slaps around just about all of the offensive lines they come across, especially in the effeminate ACC. Throw in an experinced QB and some skill guys, and you have the clear favorite in the ACC. They only have 1 game in which they might not be a sizable favorite, @VT. If Jimbo finally gets his ass out of his ass, they might contend for the big one. Teams I don't like. 1. Notre Dame: First of all, just about everything Brian Kelly has done since he stumbled into South Bend has been an absolute abortion. His teams are 16-10, 8-5 at home. They've lost games in ways that only the most ultimate of losers lose. They've made some of the most comically boneheaded buffoonish plays anyone has seen in college football in the past 20 years. To top it off, Brian Kelly has now managed to bastardize about the only thing that's good about Notre Dame anymore, their steadfast tradition, by running his collection of walking turnovers out there in whatever flavor of the month alternate uniform suits him. This year, they're going to be wearing these abominations when they play Miami at Soldier Field: http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.484061511623400.127406.155703994459155&type=3. I shouldn't have to explain why doing this is wrong, but I can't help myself. Why do teams come up with these God-awful uniforms? Because the dumber they look, the more these brain dead idiotic 17 year olds like them, and a lot of schools need some type of gimmick to get kids to like them so they can improve recruiting. I kind of worked with Oregon, but I would contend that cheating and paying kids has affected their fortunes as much as the uniforms have. In Notre Dame's case, they've pretty much sucked by their own standards for the better part of almost 20 years. Despite that, they still pull in recruiting classes that are typically ranked among the top 10 or so in the country. Why? Because they are Notre Dame, that's why. Their tradition sets them apart from other programs. Their gold helmets, the golden dome, TD Jesus, etc. Similarly, Alabama has had the same uniform forever, but they win a game that matters every once in awhile, so they can avoid resorting to gimmicks. By caring about what their uniform looks like, Notre Dame has shitcanned what set them apart, and are now admitting they are no better than the Oregons, the Marylands, Oklahoma States, etc of the world. Now that you are wearing those stupid pajamas with the two toned helmet, you better start fucking winning, Kelly, you ignorant, corrupt, morally bankrupt shrieking pissant. With all that being said, why do I think they'll underacieve this year? Well, because the "Luck of the Irish" has apparently turned into "Here...have a bit of this turd sandwich." After about the 50th time you slap your forehead at some hideous turnover or blown coverage, you realize that these are the things that define Notre Dame football. This year, in addition to that albatross, I'm having a hard time finding any good players on their roster. Their schedule includes no chancers such as @USC, @Oklahoma, @Michigan St, Michigan, and probably Stanford. The rest of their schedule has no gimmes. Defensively, they've got 6 starters back, but lost 5 of their top 6 tacklers. Offensively, they don't have a QB that has proven he can walk, chew gum and breathe at the same time, let alone move the ball against some of the squads they're playing. Throw in the expectation of about 40 plays that will leave mouths agape at the sheer unfathomable idiocy of them, I'll be surprised if they win 7 games, stunned if they win 8. 2. Arkansas: I see that they are ranked 10th in some spots. Although I have been an ardent supporter of the Hogs in recent years, and more than once in the Preseason Musings, I am not bullish on them this year. No coach in th country, except perhaps Nick Saban, is more directly responsible for his teams success than Bobby Petrino has been for Arkansas. His ability to bitch slap opposing coaches both in preperation schemes and in game adjustments made Arkansas the team its been the past few years. Don't get me wrong, I like their offense, especially the skill guys like Tyler Wilson and the sufficiently healed Knile Davis, but I am leery of the effect that not having Petrino on board will have. Had they just used a cardboard cut out of Petrino as the interim head coach, it couldn't have been any worse than bringing in that chowderhead John L. Smith. He will have a negative effect on this team vitually every time he opens his mouth. I peg Arkansas as being a squad ripe for an upset, virtually every game they play. 3. Illinois: The Illini are getting some props as a team that could possibly sneak into contention in the Big Ten Leaders division. Well, shit, I hope so, since there's only 4 teams eligible for the honor and two of them are Indiana and Purdue. They return a healthy amount of solid contributers from a defense that was ranked 6th in the country in Total Defense last year. Sounds good, right? Sure, except they played offense as badly as any team in the country in the last 6 games last year. Now Tim Beckman enters the picture. I refuse to criticize the hire, since it's likely that nobody worth a shit wanted that job, but I'm afraid that Tim Beckman might be the best candidate we have to take over as the new Village Idiot of CFB coaches. His meathead quotient appears to be pretty impressive, judging by his press conferences and other media appearances. Illinois's schedule has road games with Arizona St, Michigan, Ohio St, Wisconsin and a Northwestern team that they almost never beat in Evanston. They also, as usual, draw the best Non BCS teams they could find in the Non-con...Western Michigan, the class of the MAC, and Louisiana Tech, who will easily win the WAC. Neither will be an easy game. They also hitch their wagon to a running QB who is not powerful, fast or elusive. If they play the "offense in a phone booth" again this year, where they complete 14 passes for 76 yards, it's going to be a long year. And...in a class all their own...I give you Penn State. I'm not going to bore you with too much of a dissertation on how much I now despise this program, or on how the NCAA blew it by allowing them to continue to compete, bu I've got to say a couple things. First, they got off easy. Why do I say that? Because there is no way that program should have avoided the death penalty. If they didn't give it to Penn State, who could they ever possibly give it to? Can it get any worse than a program perpetuating child rape? I suppose that Sandusky could have chopped the kids' heads off Jeffrey Dahmer style, but in my book, it doesn't get any worse than what we saw. The program was complicit because the leader of the program knew about everything and decided to look the other way. Ultimately, it was decided that football was too important of an entity at Penn St. to allow it to be derailed, even if it meant that child abuse would go on unfettered. Even now, after the Freeh report, most affiliated with Penn State are still lost. Fans feel anger for being punished at all. They are so brainwashed to love all things Penn State football, that they were blind to what happened..they simply can't believe that Joe Paterno could be to blame for all this stuff. This culture led to the environment that allowed all these atrocities to take place. If there was no Penn State football, none of this would have happened, because Jerry Sandusky would not have had the program to lure these kids. Without PSU football, he's just a creepy dude in a track suit with no ability to provide anything for these kids, and they would have ignored him. That's why the program should have been shut down. You had to burn it to the ground to establish a true end of the sick culture that allowed the Sandusky ordeal. How the Big Ten continues to associate themselves with this program is beyond me. Continued association with Penn State is a de facto acceptance of what happened. If I'm the AD at any other member school, there is no way in the world I want to be affiliated with that school. It's a stain on me. If they're in my conference, I'm supposed to look at them as a partner, an equal in competition. How can anyone look at Penn State as an equal? The fact that they haven't torn down that Lasch Building yet speaks volumes. Wouldn't you want that House of Horrors blown up immediately. I liken it to the Brown's Chicken murders in Palatine in 1993. 10 people were murdered there. Within 6 months, the building was bulldozed because nobody wanted to come within a country mile of that place. Why isn't there a similar stigma attached to the Lasch building. (By the way, "Lasch" is the local Toyota dealer in State College who contributed a lot of money to the program over the years. I'm sure he's loving the legacy he built, eh?) Shit, the Penn State players probably still shower under the very shower head that Sandusky did his business and they think nothing of it. I'd be nauseous if I was in the same area code with that building. As for on the field, they are going to stink. They stunk to high heaven on offense last year, and they've lost their two best skill guys. They took a transfer from Akron. The kid transferred from Akron because he couldn't get much consideration to play over there as a preferred walk on. Akron refused to give the kid a scholly, and PSU is taking him on scholarship? Wow. A couple random thoughts: From the early 90's until 2003, Temple played in the Big East. The spent the most part of theiur tenure there getting humiliated by the likes of Virginia Tech and Miami, back when those schools tolerated being in that conference. It got so bad for Temple that the Big East threw them out of the conference in 2004. Fast forward a few years and guess who the Big East needs to make up a semblance of a football conference? Temple. Are they better now? No. They just got to beat up on some MAC teams for a few years. Whatever. Just more proof that idiots are everywhere....I have a hunch that Jim Mora Jr. is going to be a good hire for UCLA. I might look dumb in a couple years when he gets fired after their latest 50-0 cornholing by USC, but I think he's got the right idea over there..... Some trends: UNLV is now 1-14 in their last 15 as a road dog. Actually, if you take away their games as a home dog, which is the only situation in which they are even adequate, they are 23-70 overall ATS in their last 93. That's 8 years. Over the last 10 years, Boise is 74-50 ATS overall, but they were 0-6 ATS at home last year, believe it or not. You might see a bounce back in that role this year, because they are traditionally great at home. (33-16 prior to last year) NC State is 7-0 on nuetral fields since '02. They are also 16-33 as a favorite, and 36-21 as a dog. The underdog is 34-15 in the last 49 NC State road games. Duke in the last 10 years: 18-27 as a Home dog, 34-18 as a road dog. Miami(FL) is 19-37 as a home favorite. Apparently, 468 people in the stands 40 miles from campus isn't all that intimidating, not that they'll be favored in many games this year. Oklahoma St is 11-1 the past 3 years as a road favorite. They are also 30-16 ATS in conference over the past 6 years. Good bet, them Pokes. Northwestern is 6-18 in their last 24 as a home favorite(all under Fitzgerald) Boston College is 20-9 as a road dog, but 9-15 as a road favorite. Texas A&M is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on nuetral fields. They are also 8-18 on the road the last 5 years. Not a good idea to play the Aggies away from Kyle Field. Navy is 24-9ATS in the last 10 years as a road dog, and is 16-9 on neutral sites. Central Michigan is 6-17 overall ATS since Dan Enos took over for Butch Jones. Remind me not to bet on those fucks. Wyoming is 12-3 as a road dog under Dave Christianson. Been very fortunate with them in that role in the musings over the past couple of years. That's it for now. I'm already working on the musings for week 1. Hopefully, we'll get off to a good start. I hope everyone is doing well and has a great year. Take Care!