I should probably start out by listing some other bowls that are coming up that I didn't list in the previous batch. I like this, but I'd consider them "also rans"..not official numbered musings. Tomorrow, Cincinnati is laying 10-1/2 to Southern Miss. Cincy is in a completely different class than So Miss. The throw it, they can run it, and defensively, they stop the run extremely well. VFery opportunistic on D as well, and with longtime coach Jeff Bower having been kicked to the curb, whatever assistant they use as the interim guy will get his head handed to him by Brian Kelly. SO miss can't throw it well, and Cincy won't let them use their bread and butter, which is the running game. USM's other strong suit in the past has been their defense, but even that unit has struggled at times this year....I also lean to Nevada in their game with New Mexico, even though the Lobos are at home here. Rocky Long is a solid coach, but for whatever reason, he can't win a bowl game. It's in his head I think. San Jose St came in there last year and beat him, and now he's lost his All-MWC running back to academics. Stupid academics! UNM has some talent in the passing game, but they are going to have to ratchet it up a piece if they want to hang with Nevada, because Nevada's offense is explosive, and balanced. I like the FG here. By the way, I am looking hard for some good dogs to back, especially after Christmas, since that's generally the time that dogs do well in bowl season, but I am having a hard time. 5. South Florida -6 v Oregon: At this point, we're assuming that Oregon will be starting wither a hobbling Brady Leaf or one fo those chowderheads that played over the past 2 games for the Ducks. Regardless, Oregon will have to run it to have a chance in this one, and that is very unlikely to happen on this D. On the other side of the ball, Oregon was effective enough at times on D to not embarrass themselves, but for the most part, they surrendered yards. USF has quietly piled up more than 35 points per game this year, and they'll have a comfortable matchup with the Duck D. I don't think that will happen with teh Ducks D vs USF. 6. Fresno St +6 v Georgia Tech: Ga Tech has the chance to run all over Fresno here, since they are a good running teeam and Fresno has had all kinds of trouble stopping the run, but I think this might be a case of one team just showing up and the other being solidly motivated. We've seen this drill from Fresno before, with the whole "we'll play anybody, you can't push us around angle". They have some atheletes on offense, and are facing a team without their coach being run by a D-coordinator who is out the door. Goergia Tech has had a tendency to not show up for games in which they would appear to have all kinds of reasons for motivation, and this is definitely not one of those cases. 7. Missouri -3 v Arkansas: At first glance, this one looked like a good opportunity to fade Missouri, since they will undoubtedly be bummed to be playing in this game instead of a BCS game. However, when you bring McFadden into the picture, I think Missou will know they have a game on their hands. There will be a full blown "meathead alert" set forth for this game, because interim guy Reggie Herring at Arkansas looks like a side of beef and talks like Foghorn Leghorn on speed. We are not talking about any kind of pragmatic thinking going on with this guy. On defense, Arkansas has given up points by the bushelfull especially in the passing game. Wes Carroll of Miss St threw for 400+ on them, his first ever 300 yard game, let along 400 yard game. If Wes Carrol can carve you up, what will Chase Daniel do to you? Bad things I'm afraid. Don't forget that in their last game, the Hogs were 13 point underdogs to LSU. I realize that game was on the road, and LSU has a much better D than Missouri, but I don't think those two teams are 10 points apart. 7. Texas Tech -6 v Virginia: Oftentimes, we might say about a team, "Their defense has been good, but they haven't faced a team like this before." Never has that been more true than in the case of Virginia. They have a rep of being a stout defense with an offfense that does just enough to win. Well, take a look at their competition this year, and tell me how many legitimately good offenses they've played. Wyoming? No.(106th in total offense) Duke? No.(117th) UNC? No.(105th) Georgia Tech? No. (66tth...astoundingly the best offense on their schedule)Pitt? No.(107th) MTSU? C'mon. And they had to get a TD with 10 seconds left to win that one.(95th) UConn? Not terrrible, but not good.(83rd), Maryland..nope (88th), NC St? no. (97th), Wake? No. (98th), Miami(FL)? Monumentally bad (110th) and finally, Va tech, who carved them up on their home field in the biggest game in the past 20 years for the program? No. (99th). They themselves are ranked 100th in total offense. The long and short of it is that they've made it here based almost entirely on the fact that they've been able to squeak out wins against brutal offenses. I'd venture to guess that their defense isn't actually all that good at all, Combine that with a weak suck offense, and you've got a team that's ripe for the picking if they get matched up with a solid passing attack. Enter that wildman Mike Leach and his band of pass happy ne'er do wells. This is one of those "First half/Game" bets that Hyun giggles about so often. 8. Oklahoma -7 1/2 v West Virginia: In Oklahoma's eyes, there remains an outside chance that some rebel AP voters migt vote them #1 if LSU and Ohio St have a taffy pull while OU blows the doors off West Virginia. So there's their motivation. WV has some too, but there are a lot of problems with this team. First, Rich Rodriguez's departure is a huge blow to them. Tey rely on him for everything. He calls the plays, handles all the motivation, is a father figure to Pat White. It's a bad scene there now. Plus, we've seen what happens when WV loses confidence or momentum. Very small margin of error there. One bright spot for Wv has been their D, which was ranked 3rd in the country as late as early November. Unfortunately, once they started playing some teams with offenses, they began to get exposed. Now they have one of the best in Oklahoma, and OU's D is more than capable of doing what Pitt did. Pat White's finger and shoulder are both fragile. God help him if he gets hurt. I would probably make Missouri a solid favorite over WV, and they proved that they can't handle Oklahoma. 9. Kansas +3 v Virginia Tech: Not many people are giving KU a chance because they don't think the Jayhawks belong in the Orange Bowl. They're right about that, for sure, but it doesn't mean KU can't win this game. The long and short of it is that KU is very balanced on offense, and they have proven themselves able to stop some pretty good offenses themselves. Va Tech, as we all know is very good on defense, but KU isn't the type to cough up the ball very much. VT is going to get KU's best shot, and I can't help but think that VT might be overconfident in this one, not helpful if you have the 99th ranked offense. Mark Mangino might be a dead ringer for the guy from "Jake and the Fatman", but he knows what he's doing. 10. Tulsa -4 v Bowling Green: Tulsa has boned me a couple times this year, but man can they score. BG has a weak D by MAC standards. This will be a shootout, but Tulsa is going to light up the scoreboard here. They have the #1 offense in college fooball...more yards per game than anyone. BG can score as well, but I don;t think they'll hang with Tulsa. Others: I Like Hawaii, because I think Georgia is overrated. But I was hoping more people would be counting them out. Consensus is actually on Hawaii and the spread is dropping(7 1/2), so I'm worried. Hawaii ia going to score on them though. You can be sure of that.....I also think Clemson will handle Auburn. There is a large discrepancy between these offenses. As long as Clemson hangs on to the ball, I think they will run away and hide in this one, though Auburn is darn pesky.....Air Force should beat cal, because everyone is beating Cal right now. There is no motivation there, and Cal will have all kinds of trouble figuring out the option. When you get lazy, the first thing that goes is the brain. |
Sunday, December 30, 2007
More College Football Bowl Musings
Thursday, December 20, 2007
College Football Bowl Musings
A little late on the post. Sorry for the tardiness.....
A lot has happened since the last week of the season. I probably should have jotted some things down on the blog, but wow, I have been sooo...I'll stop right there. Everybody in the mother-effing free world considers themselves "busy'. It's as if people need to say that to legitimize their pathetic non-busy lives. Spare me junior. Here's the truth...I haven't had a coherent thought in the past 3 weeks. Thee has been some news though:
Did anyone hear about that steriods in baseball thing? Wow. Some guys in baseball actually took steroids. Who knew?
Lots of coaching changes, led by yet another tough break in "potential coaching scenarios that didn't work out like I wanted as it pertains to the Illini" I'm about 0 for 100 on this scenario. Let's review: Over the past several years, there have been all kinds of coaching rumors that could potentially affect Illinois, both in football and basketball. Here they are:
1. 2003- North Carolina considers firing BB coach Matt Doherty. My take at the time: "I hope this doesn't happen. No way will Roy Williams be able to resist Carolina a second time, especially since he will be able to ride in on a white horse to rescue a team with 14 MC D's All Americans. If he goes, Kansas will open up, and that might be the only place Self might leave to go to." Result: Doherty fired.
2. 2003- North Carolina woos Roy Williams. Williams claims "I don't fucking give a flying fuck about North Carolina, you snaggletoothed hagbeast" to Bonnie Bernstien after the NC game that year. My thoughts: "Don't do it Huckleberry!" Result: He takes the job.
3. 2003 Bill Self gets feelers from Kansas 15 seconds after Williams bolts to Caolina. Me: "Please don't go. We are about to dominate the Big Ten for many years to come...Charlie Villanueva is coming and the rest will follow. Glory awaits!" Result: He goes to Kansas.
4. 2003- Step 4 in the coaching merry go-round is rumored to be Tom Crean to Illinois. Me: "I hope this happens. He's a good coach with a nose for talent who can recruit. he's young and energetic. Nice package." Result: Crean decides to stay at Marquette/
5. 2003- Illinois rumored to hire Bruce Weber from SIU. Me: "I hope not. Looks like he is a good coach, but man, he's kind of whiny and unlikable. I don't think he has the goods to recruit with the big boys either. Probably is in a good spot as a 'coach 'em up' mid major type." Result: Illinois hires Weber.
Fast forward to this year......
Strong rumor: Les Miles to Michigan. (By the way, I am convinced that had West Virginia beaten Pitt, Miles is in his office in Ann Arbor staring at the wall right now.) My thoughts: "Please please please please please please please. The final nail in the coffin of the declining Michigan program. Hopefully they won't give him a Wonderlic as a replacement for a physical." Result. WVU blows it, LSU is in the MNC game, and Miles has no choice but to stay put, since he can't put on this charade for a whole month, and Michigan can't wait that long.
Next rumor: Rich Rodriguez to Michigan: Me: "Please, no. Illinois is positioned to be among the top two in the B10 because they are the only serious recruiting player in the B10 that runs a spread. If those dicks bring this guy in, now they have a spread, and they'll become Illinois on steriods. But shit, the guy said just last year that he wants to retire at his alma mater since he has a chance to compete for MNCs every year. He can't leave now can he?" Result: Rodriguez takes the job.
So you see...the vicious trend continues. Recapping the season: We ended up 80-64 after a very welcome 5-1 finish in the last week. that's 55 %. Not great, but at least you can make some money at that clip. Thanks to a couple nice parlays, I ended up about 25 units up. A little down compared to last year, but I'll take it I guess. Unlike last year, hopefully we can make some money in the bowls. I got cornholed last year, with my three biggest losses coming from fading the Big Ten dogs. Unfortunately, I see more of the same this year, so tread lightly.
On to the bowls: They're in chronological order: I am going to start with a few, and then follow with the rest in a couple days.
1. BYU -5 1/2 v UCLA: Strong motivational advantage for BYu here. This is one of two rematches this year(boo!!). UCLA topped BYU in week 2 in the Rose Bowl by 10, but lucked out in that one. BYU outgained them by 200 yards, and there were all kinds of bad breaks for the Mormons that day. UCLA also did a fair amount of squaking after the game. Now BYU plays in their home bowl to get a measure of revenge against a team that just fired their coach and has very little to play for. Everything will have to go right for them from the get go to stay interested. As soon as they get a tough break, this team will fall apart. BYU travels well to this game too. Oregon found themselves on the wrong end of a BYU ass kicking last year in a similar spot. Granted, that BYU team was better than this one, but not by much. That Oregon team, however, was much better than this UCLA team. Could get ugly.
2. Arizona St +2 1/2 v Texas: Good Holiday Bowl matchup here. Should be a nice, colorful game on the San Diego grass. That's another of countless reasons to like bowls...the cool uni combinations with the painted endzones for the two teams. ok, moving on...Both of these teams can move the ball well, but both have achilles heels. I just think Texas has more problems. First, ASU's major problem is protecting Rudy Carpenter, as they rank 117th in the country in sacks allowed, but Texas has not pressured anyone this year, especially lately. Their pass defense borders on asinine, as they rank 109th in the country in that category while Carpenter ranks 11th in passer rating. Consider their last 4 games. Stephen Mcgee threw for 362 yards on them for A&M. He's an option QB. Zac Robinson of Okie St threw for 430 the week before, a career high by more than 150 yards. Nebraska threw for 300+ the week before with an injured Sam Keller, and the great Michael Machen who transferred to Baylor because he couldn't start for KENT for crying out loud torched them for 285 yards. Also, throw in the fact that Colt McCoy has been error prone(21 TD/18 INT) and you have a good matchup for ASU.
3. BC -3 1/2 V Michigan St: How does the Big Ten continually get saddled with matchups like this? Their #6 team has to play a team that was one half away from the BCS? Whatever. Michigan St has a pretty nice team, and they have cashed tickets for me as outright dog winners in their last two games, but this is a bad matchup. Their pass defense is at best lacking and is overall problematic. Enter Matt Ryan, who admitedly has fallen off lately, but will be seeing a step down from the Clemsons and the Va Techs of the world with this MSU outfit. MSU is pretty good on offense, but mostly because of their solid running game, which is likely to be shut down by BC, the #1 run D in the country this year. BC might be disappointed in theor assignment, but they should roll. The public being on this at a 78% clip is horrifyig to me, but the public looks to have the right side here.
4. TCU -4 v Houston: Another public favorite. However, I think it's the right side. TCU staggered through the middle part of it's schedule due to a number of reasons, #1 being that their best player, NFL calber DE Tommy Blake was out with a kidney problem. He's back now. TCU's problem this year has mostly been on the offensive side. These problems got serious when they started screwing around with "atheltic" (read: scattershot) QB Marcus Jackson. Their starter, Andy Dalton should be back, and they actually put up some decent passing numbers when Dalton was healthy this year, including a 300+ performance against Stanford, and some other niceties. Houston's D is not much of a pressure unit, as is true with the rest of C-USA, who collectively look at defense as an opportunity to return kickoffs. As a result, Dalton will be confortable. On the flip side, Houston has not seen anywhere close to the caliber of D that Gary Patterson has at TCU. Also, Art Briles and his 2(!!!) top offensive coaches are already in Waco starting on their Baylor assignment, so they aren't going to be available, and that it a big deal. Their QB is young, he doesn't have his coach, and TCU is formidable. They'll get enough going on offense to put some points up on this C-USA team.
Others: I like Memphis getting points(+2 1/2)from a Sun Belt team. Neither team can really stop anyone, but I think Memphis has a bit more experience in situations like this, and I think their pass offense is a tad better than FAU's. This line is an overreaction to last year's NO bowl, in which Rice got slapped around by Troy. Keep in mind also that FAU is two weeks away from having been a 15 point underdog to Troy. They won that game, but really, can we expect a monumental performance again from them? There is no way they expected to be in this position......I'm in the minority, but I really like Navy(+8). They lost their coach, but immediately promoted their offensive coordinator to the post so they'll probably have a relatively seemless transition for the bowl, although I have a lot of respect for Paul Johnson. Navy, as has been repeated in the musings, cannot stop any decent passing attack. They would be in a world of hurt if they were linig up against a Texas tech, or an Indiana, or any kind of athletic passing team. However, Utah is not dynamic on offense. They would rather run it with Darrell Mack and dink it down the field. This works to navy's favor. I've seen a lot of people predict that Utah scores every time they tough the ball. I don;t see it that way. Also, Utah's defensive prowess, which in my opinion has been overrated since they haven't played many good offenses, will be mitigated by the fact that Navy scores on everyone. Everyone. It's also historically difficult to cover as a big favorite when you get outrushed by a significant amount, which is very likely in this one. I'm taking the 8 here.
That's it for now. I'll have more probably tonight.
A lot has happened since the last week of the season. I probably should have jotted some things down on the blog, but wow, I have been sooo...I'll stop right there. Everybody in the mother-effing free world considers themselves "busy'. It's as if people need to say that to legitimize their pathetic non-busy lives. Spare me junior. Here's the truth...I haven't had a coherent thought in the past 3 weeks. Thee has been some news though:
Did anyone hear about that steriods in baseball thing? Wow. Some guys in baseball actually took steroids. Who knew?
Lots of coaching changes, led by yet another tough break in "potential coaching scenarios that didn't work out like I wanted as it pertains to the Illini" I'm about 0 for 100 on this scenario. Let's review: Over the past several years, there have been all kinds of coaching rumors that could potentially affect Illinois, both in football and basketball. Here they are:
1. 2003- North Carolina considers firing BB coach Matt Doherty. My take at the time: "I hope this doesn't happen. No way will Roy Williams be able to resist Carolina a second time, especially since he will be able to ride in on a white horse to rescue a team with 14 MC D's All Americans. If he goes, Kansas will open up, and that might be the only place Self might leave to go to." Result: Doherty fired.
2. 2003- North Carolina woos Roy Williams. Williams claims "I don't fucking give a flying fuck about North Carolina, you snaggletoothed hagbeast" to Bonnie Bernstien after the NC game that year. My thoughts: "Don't do it Huckleberry!" Result: He takes the job.
3. 2003 Bill Self gets feelers from Kansas 15 seconds after Williams bolts to Caolina. Me: "Please don't go. We are about to dominate the Big Ten for many years to come...Charlie Villanueva is coming and the rest will follow. Glory awaits!" Result: He goes to Kansas.
4. 2003- Step 4 in the coaching merry go-round is rumored to be Tom Crean to Illinois. Me: "I hope this happens. He's a good coach with a nose for talent who can recruit. he's young and energetic. Nice package." Result: Crean decides to stay at Marquette/
5. 2003- Illinois rumored to hire Bruce Weber from SIU. Me: "I hope not. Looks like he is a good coach, but man, he's kind of whiny and unlikable. I don't think he has the goods to recruit with the big boys either. Probably is in a good spot as a 'coach 'em up' mid major type." Result: Illinois hires Weber.
Fast forward to this year......
Strong rumor: Les Miles to Michigan. (By the way, I am convinced that had West Virginia beaten Pitt, Miles is in his office in Ann Arbor staring at the wall right now.) My thoughts: "Please please please please please please please. The final nail in the coffin of the declining Michigan program. Hopefully they won't give him a Wonderlic as a replacement for a physical." Result. WVU blows it, LSU is in the MNC game, and Miles has no choice but to stay put, since he can't put on this charade for a whole month, and Michigan can't wait that long.
Next rumor: Rich Rodriguez to Michigan: Me: "Please, no. Illinois is positioned to be among the top two in the B10 because they are the only serious recruiting player in the B10 that runs a spread. If those dicks bring this guy in, now they have a spread, and they'll become Illinois on steriods. But shit, the guy said just last year that he wants to retire at his alma mater since he has a chance to compete for MNCs every year. He can't leave now can he?" Result: Rodriguez takes the job.
So you see...the vicious trend continues. Recapping the season: We ended up 80-64 after a very welcome 5-1 finish in the last week. that's 55 %. Not great, but at least you can make some money at that clip. Thanks to a couple nice parlays, I ended up about 25 units up. A little down compared to last year, but I'll take it I guess. Unlike last year, hopefully we can make some money in the bowls. I got cornholed last year, with my three biggest losses coming from fading the Big Ten dogs. Unfortunately, I see more of the same this year, so tread lightly.
On to the bowls: They're in chronological order: I am going to start with a few, and then follow with the rest in a couple days.
1. BYU -5 1/2 v UCLA: Strong motivational advantage for BYu here. This is one of two rematches this year(boo!!). UCLA topped BYU in week 2 in the Rose Bowl by 10, but lucked out in that one. BYU outgained them by 200 yards, and there were all kinds of bad breaks for the Mormons that day. UCLA also did a fair amount of squaking after the game. Now BYU plays in their home bowl to get a measure of revenge against a team that just fired their coach and has very little to play for. Everything will have to go right for them from the get go to stay interested. As soon as they get a tough break, this team will fall apart. BYU travels well to this game too. Oregon found themselves on the wrong end of a BYU ass kicking last year in a similar spot. Granted, that BYU team was better than this one, but not by much. That Oregon team, however, was much better than this UCLA team. Could get ugly.
2. Arizona St +2 1/2 v Texas: Good Holiday Bowl matchup here. Should be a nice, colorful game on the San Diego grass. That's another of countless reasons to like bowls...the cool uni combinations with the painted endzones for the two teams. ok, moving on...Both of these teams can move the ball well, but both have achilles heels. I just think Texas has more problems. First, ASU's major problem is protecting Rudy Carpenter, as they rank 117th in the country in sacks allowed, but Texas has not pressured anyone this year, especially lately. Their pass defense borders on asinine, as they rank 109th in the country in that category while Carpenter ranks 11th in passer rating. Consider their last 4 games. Stephen Mcgee threw for 362 yards on them for A&M. He's an option QB. Zac Robinson of Okie St threw for 430 the week before, a career high by more than 150 yards. Nebraska threw for 300+ the week before with an injured Sam Keller, and the great Michael Machen who transferred to Baylor because he couldn't start for KENT for crying out loud torched them for 285 yards. Also, throw in the fact that Colt McCoy has been error prone(21 TD/18 INT) and you have a good matchup for ASU.
3. BC -3 1/2 V Michigan St: How does the Big Ten continually get saddled with matchups like this? Their #6 team has to play a team that was one half away from the BCS? Whatever. Michigan St has a pretty nice team, and they have cashed tickets for me as outright dog winners in their last two games, but this is a bad matchup. Their pass defense is at best lacking and is overall problematic. Enter Matt Ryan, who admitedly has fallen off lately, but will be seeing a step down from the Clemsons and the Va Techs of the world with this MSU outfit. MSU is pretty good on offense, but mostly because of their solid running game, which is likely to be shut down by BC, the #1 run D in the country this year. BC might be disappointed in theor assignment, but they should roll. The public being on this at a 78% clip is horrifyig to me, but the public looks to have the right side here.
4. TCU -4 v Houston: Another public favorite. However, I think it's the right side. TCU staggered through the middle part of it's schedule due to a number of reasons, #1 being that their best player, NFL calber DE Tommy Blake was out with a kidney problem. He's back now. TCU's problem this year has mostly been on the offensive side. These problems got serious when they started screwing around with "atheltic" (read: scattershot) QB Marcus Jackson. Their starter, Andy Dalton should be back, and they actually put up some decent passing numbers when Dalton was healthy this year, including a 300+ performance against Stanford, and some other niceties. Houston's D is not much of a pressure unit, as is true with the rest of C-USA, who collectively look at defense as an opportunity to return kickoffs. As a result, Dalton will be confortable. On the flip side, Houston has not seen anywhere close to the caliber of D that Gary Patterson has at TCU. Also, Art Briles and his 2(!!!) top offensive coaches are already in Waco starting on their Baylor assignment, so they aren't going to be available, and that it a big deal. Their QB is young, he doesn't have his coach, and TCU is formidable. They'll get enough going on offense to put some points up on this C-USA team.
Others: I like Memphis getting points(+2 1/2)from a Sun Belt team. Neither team can really stop anyone, but I think Memphis has a bit more experience in situations like this, and I think their pass offense is a tad better than FAU's. This line is an overreaction to last year's NO bowl, in which Rice got slapped around by Troy. Keep in mind also that FAU is two weeks away from having been a 15 point underdog to Troy. They won that game, but really, can we expect a monumental performance again from them? There is no way they expected to be in this position......I'm in the minority, but I really like Navy(+8). They lost their coach, but immediately promoted their offensive coordinator to the post so they'll probably have a relatively seemless transition for the bowl, although I have a lot of respect for Paul Johnson. Navy, as has been repeated in the musings, cannot stop any decent passing attack. They would be in a world of hurt if they were linig up against a Texas tech, or an Indiana, or any kind of athletic passing team. However, Utah is not dynamic on offense. They would rather run it with Darrell Mack and dink it down the field. This works to navy's favor. I've seen a lot of people predict that Utah scores every time they tough the ball. I don;t see it that way. Also, Utah's defensive prowess, which in my opinion has been overrated since they haven't played many good offenses, will be mitigated by the fact that Navy scores on everyone. Everyone. It's also historically difficult to cover as a big favorite when you get outrushed by a significant amount, which is very likely in this one. I'm taking the 8 here.
That's it for now. I'll have more probably tonight.
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