College Football Bowl Musings

A little late on the post. Sorry for the tardiness.....


A lot has happened since the last week of the season. I probably should have jotted some things down on the blog, but wow, I have been sooo...I'll stop right there. Everybody in the mother-effing free world considers themselves "busy'. It's as if people need to say that to legitimize their pathetic non-busy lives. Spare me junior. Here's the truth...I haven't had a coherent thought in the past 3 weeks. Thee has been some news though:

Did anyone hear about that steriods in baseball thing? Wow. Some guys in baseball actually took steroids. Who knew?

Lots of coaching changes, led by yet another tough break in "potential coaching scenarios that didn't work out like I wanted as it pertains to the Illini" I'm about 0 for 100 on this scenario. Let's review: Over the past several years, there have been all kinds of coaching rumors that could potentially affect Illinois, both in football and basketball. Here they are:

1. 2003- North Carolina considers firing BB coach Matt Doherty. My take at the time: "I hope this doesn't happen. No way will Roy Williams be able to resist Carolina a second time, especially since he will be able to ride in on a white horse to rescue a team with 14 MC D's All Americans. If he goes, Kansas will open up, and that might be the only place Self might leave to go to." Result: Doherty fired.

2. 2003- North Carolina woos Roy Williams. Williams claims "I don't fucking give a flying fuck about North Carolina, you snaggletoothed hagbeast" to Bonnie Bernstien after the NC game that year. My thoughts: "Don't do it Huckleberry!" Result: He takes the job.

3. 2003 Bill Self gets feelers from Kansas 15 seconds after Williams bolts to Caolina. Me: "Please don't go. We are about to dominate the Big Ten for many years to come...Charlie Villanueva is coming and the rest will follow. Glory awaits!" Result: He goes to Kansas.

4. 2003- Step 4 in the coaching merry go-round is rumored to be Tom Crean to Illinois. Me: "I hope this happens. He's a good coach with a nose for talent who can recruit. he's young and energetic. Nice package." Result: Crean decides to stay at Marquette/

5. 2003- Illinois rumored to hire Bruce Weber from SIU. Me: "I hope not. Looks like he is a good coach, but man, he's kind of whiny and unlikable. I don't think he has the goods to recruit with the big boys either. Probably is in a good spot as a 'coach 'em up' mid major type." Result: Illinois hires Weber.

Fast forward to this year......

Strong rumor: Les Miles to Michigan. (By the way, I am convinced that had West Virginia beaten Pitt, Miles is in his office in Ann Arbor staring at the wall right now.) My thoughts: "Please please please please please please please. The final nail in the coffin of the declining Michigan program. Hopefully they won't give him a Wonderlic as a replacement for a physical." Result. WVU blows it, LSU is in the MNC game, and Miles has no choice but to stay put, since he can't put on this charade for a whole month, and Michigan can't wait that long.

Next rumor: Rich Rodriguez to Michigan: Me: "Please, no. Illinois is positioned to be among the top two in the B10 because they are the only serious recruiting player in the B10 that runs a spread. If those dicks bring this guy in, now they have a spread, and they'll become Illinois on steriods. But shit, the guy said just last year that he wants to retire at his alma mater since he has a chance to compete for MNCs every year. He can't leave now can he?" Result: Rodriguez takes the job.

So you see...the vicious trend continues. Recapping the season: We ended up 80-64 after a very welcome 5-1 finish in the last week. that's 55 %. Not great, but at least you can make some money at that clip. Thanks to a couple nice parlays, I ended up about 25 units up. A little down compared to last year, but I'll take it I guess. Unlike last year, hopefully we can make some money in the bowls. I got cornholed last year, with my three biggest losses coming from fading the Big Ten dogs. Unfortunately, I see more of the same this year, so tread lightly.

On to the bowls: They're in chronological order: I am going to start with a few, and then follow with the rest in a couple days.


1. BYU -5 1/2 v UCLA: Strong motivational advantage for BYu here. This is one of two rematches this year(boo!!). UCLA topped BYU in week 2 in the Rose Bowl by 10, but lucked out in that one. BYU outgained them by 200 yards, and there were all kinds of bad breaks for the Mormons that day. UCLA also did a fair amount of squaking after the game. Now BYU plays in their home bowl to get a measure of revenge against a team that just fired their coach and has very little to play for. Everything will have to go right for them from the get go to stay interested. As soon as they get a tough break, this team will fall apart. BYU travels well to this game too. Oregon found themselves on the wrong end of a BYU ass kicking last year in a similar spot. Granted, that BYU team was better than this one, but not by much. That Oregon team, however, was much better than this UCLA team. Could get ugly.

2. Arizona St +2 1/2 v Texas: Good Holiday Bowl matchup here. Should be a nice, colorful game on the San Diego grass. That's another of countless reasons to like bowls...the cool uni combinations with the painted endzones for the two teams. ok, moving on...Both of these teams can move the ball well, but both have achilles heels. I just think Texas has more problems. First, ASU's major problem is protecting Rudy Carpenter, as they rank 117th in the country in sacks allowed, but Texas has not pressured anyone this year, especially lately. Their pass defense borders on asinine, as they rank 109th in the country in that category while Carpenter ranks 11th in passer rating. Consider their last 4 games. Stephen Mcgee threw for 362 yards on them for A&M. He's an option QB. Zac Robinson of Okie St threw for 430 the week before, a career high by more than 150 yards. Nebraska threw for 300+ the week before with an injured Sam Keller, and the great Michael Machen who transferred to Baylor because he couldn't start for KENT for crying out loud torched them for 285 yards. Also, throw in the fact that Colt McCoy has been error prone(21 TD/18 INT) and you have a good matchup for ASU.

3. BC -3 1/2 V Michigan St: How does the Big Ten continually get saddled with matchups like this? Their #6 team has to play a team that was one half away from the BCS? Whatever. Michigan St has a pretty nice team, and they have cashed tickets for me as outright dog winners in their last two games, but this is a bad matchup. Their pass defense is at best lacking and is overall problematic. Enter Matt Ryan, who admitedly has fallen off lately, but will be seeing a step down from the Clemsons and the Va Techs of the world with this MSU outfit. MSU is pretty good on offense, but mostly because of their solid running game, which is likely to be shut down by BC, the #1 run D in the country this year. BC might be disappointed in theor assignment, but they should roll. The public being on this at a 78% clip is horrifyig to me, but the public looks to have the right side here.

4. TCU -4 v Houston: Another public favorite. However, I think it's the right side. TCU staggered through the middle part of it's schedule due to a number of reasons, #1 being that their best player, NFL calber DE Tommy Blake was out with a kidney problem. He's back now. TCU's problem this year has mostly been on the offensive side. These problems got serious when they started screwing around with "atheltic" (read: scattershot) QB Marcus Jackson. Their starter, Andy Dalton should be back, and they actually put up some decent passing numbers when Dalton was healthy this year, including a 300+ performance against Stanford, and some other niceties. Houston's D is not much of a pressure unit, as is true with the rest of C-USA, who collectively look at defense as an opportunity to return kickoffs. As a result, Dalton will be confortable. On the flip side, Houston has not seen anywhere close to the caliber of D that Gary Patterson has at TCU. Also, Art Briles and his 2(!!!) top offensive coaches are already in Waco starting on their Baylor assignment, so they aren't going to be available, and that it a big deal. Their QB is young, he doesn't have his coach, and TCU is formidable. They'll get enough going on offense to put some points up on this C-USA team.

Others: I like Memphis getting points(+2 1/2)from a Sun Belt team. Neither team can really stop anyone, but I think Memphis has a bit more experience in situations like this, and I think their pass offense is a tad better than FAU's. This line is an overreaction to last year's NO bowl, in which Rice got slapped around by Troy. Keep in mind also that FAU is two weeks away from having been a 15 point underdog to Troy. They won that game, but really, can we expect a monumental performance again from them? There is no way they expected to be in this position......I'm in the minority, but I really like Navy(+8). They lost their coach, but immediately promoted their offensive coordinator to the post so they'll probably have a relatively seemless transition for the bowl, although I have a lot of respect for Paul Johnson. Navy, as has been repeated in the musings, cannot stop any decent passing attack. They would be in a world of hurt if they were linig up against a Texas tech, or an Indiana, or any kind of athletic passing team. However, Utah is not dynamic on offense. They would rather run it with Darrell Mack and dink it down the field. This works to navy's favor. I've seen a lot of people predict that Utah scores every time they tough the ball. I don;t see it that way. Also, Utah's defensive prowess, which in my opinion has been overrated since they haven't played many good offenses, will be mitigated by the fact that Navy scores on everyone. Everyone. It's also historically difficult to cover as a big favorite when you get outrushed by a significant amount, which is very likely in this one. I'm taking the 8 here.

That's it for now. I'll have more probably tonight.