Well, you can add Butch Davis's name to the litany of idiots who can't seem to grasp the concept that they are responsible for using sound logic and judgement in end of game clock management situations. I won't rehash it, but the scene included having about 18 guys on the field as his QB is clocking the ball to set up for a 30 yard game tying FG. If you get a chance to see it, it was worse than the LSU debacle against Tennessee earlier this year. Apparently, the 10 second run off rule doesn't exist in college football, which turned out to be a good thing for Butch(and me).
7-5 for the numbered musings. Too bad I didn't just include the also rans in those too because they're 5-0. Moving on.
13. Notre Dame +3 v Miami(Fla): Miami looks a little bit better on paper than Notre Dame, but shit, they looked a hell of a lot better than Virginia and South Florida too, and lost both of those games. They come in to this game at 7-5, same as Notre Dame, but these teams are heading in different directions. ND has won three in a row including wins against Utah and USC, while Miami is coming off two losses in a row, the last of which got their coach fired, it was so uninspiring. Despite the opponent being Notre Dame, I can't see how Miami is motivated at all for this one. They just want to get the season over with and move on to the Al Golden era.This should also be one of the biggest coaching advantages of the bowl season, with Brian kelly against whoever lame duck got stuck coaching this game for Miami. ND has been excited to prepare for this one, as Kelly has mentioned many times, and their staff sees it as easily the most important game of their tenure so far. Even though Miami in most cases should handle this ND team, I can't see it happening here...I actually almost expect a rather comforable ND win in this one.
14. Florida St +3 v South Carolina: Another ACC v SEC game. Don't like taking the ACC in these games, but I find myself doing it again. 68% of the public is on South Carolina here, but in my opinion, these teams are pretty evenly matched for the most part, except FSU is more consistent in all phases. South Carolina is having all kinds of trouble stopping the pass, and it appears that Christian Ponder will be pretty much totally healthy for this game. FSU is stronger overall on the defensive side, and they will be pressuring Garcia all night(#2 in country in sacks), never a good thing for the Gamecocks. Actually, USC can pressure the QB as well(#6) but I would be much more comfortable with Ponder than with Garcia. Motivation is probably on FSU's side as well. coming off the destruction of Florida and with a new staff still looking for reasons to get the kids to believe. South Carolina also has a penchant for tanking bowl games under Spurrier as well. Like the points here.
Others: can't make a call on USF/Clemson...going with the under. I'm also going to take a flyer on UCF to cover the 7 against UGA, since this appears to be a major motivational edge for them, as UGA is also just going through the motions here, like a lot of teams. UCF os also pretty good on offense and defense..they have a chance to give Georgia fits on both sides of the ball, even though Georgia has much better athletes. By the way, look at Aaron Murray's stats this year. WAYYYYY better than Matthew Stafford at the same time in their development.
Take care!!
Friday, December 31, 2010
Thursday, December 30, 2010
More Musings...
Some of these were from previous entries. Still struggling to keep this up to date.
Air Force cashes another ticket, so we move to 5-2 for the season. This was another fortunate game, as Air Force never really got their offense rolling and scored their only TD on an 12 yard drive, but I thought Ga Tech would find a way to lose after the season they've had, and they did. Good fortune, I like it.
8. West Virginia -2 1/2 v NC State: Bet Us has it now at 2.5, so I jumped on it. When I saw this matchup, I assumed that I would be on the Wolfpack, considering I almost always back the Pack and at the same time, I always look for reasons to fade Bill Stewart and the 'Eers. Despite my deep admiration for Russell Wilson, I have to go with WV here. First, although there will be a schematic disadvantage for them, the WV players are almost certainly going to give a solid effort for lame duck Stewart. Defensively, they will have a strong advantage over the Wolfpack as WV ranks highly in almost every statistical category. They stop the run, they stop the pass, they rush the passer...very solid. On the other hand NC State is actually ranked only 73rd in overall ypp and can't run the ball to save their lives. That will put all the burden on Wilson, and NC State's OL has had a hard time protecting him. They'd better get that buttoned up quickly because WV is 3rd in the country in sacks. When WV has the ball, the defense will be in bettter position as well, but not to the extent that WV will enjoy. WV's pass offense under Geno Smith has been very good over the past 3-4 weeks, and Nc State is pourous against the pass. Close game, but I think WV handles NC State.
9. Iowa + 2 1/2 v Missouri: This is more of a hunch play, but I think Iowa will come out more motivated than Missouri will. Iowa was embarrassed in their last game against Minnesota, and they have heard for a month about how they lost 3 straight to finish the year. Although they had some guys suspended, they have guys that can step up, and there isn't anyone missing from a very disciplined and solid Iowa defense. If you check the numbers this year, Mizzou has been getting handled offensively by some teams that can only be classified as mediocre and that's on a good day. This will probably be the best defense that Missouri will face. Like I said, it's a hunch, but I played this one.
10. Baylor -1 v Illinois: Obviously, I'm not impartial here, but I know when they're facing a bad matchup for them, and Baylor is it. Big time coaching advantage with Briles v anybody in Orange and Blue. Also, Baylor's running Qb is just the right kind of guy that gives the Illini fits. They do ok vs plodding offenses,. but not against the fast paced/dymanic offenses like Baylor. On defense, they appear to be good enough to keep Illinois off balance. Better offense, comparable defenses, Ron Zook in the house...
Others: East Carolina can't stop a soul on defense, and that coincides with Maryland's offense finding their rhythm in the passing game. ECU can throw it too, but I see no resistance from these guys on the defensive side of the ball. I'm laying off a full unit because I question Maryland's chops to cover the number(-7)......I also lean toward Okie St(-4 1/2) over Arizona. That's it for now. take Care.
Noelle Nicole LaVette was born yesterday, 6 lbs 13 oz, 20 inches long. Everyone doing well, of course. Glad to spend 5 minutes taking a look at things before we get back to marveling at her and the job Carissa did yesterday.
First of all, I was glad to see Illinois prove me wrong on the musing that may or may not have been coherent from a couple nights ago. I've been wrong on them a lot this year...which is a good thing because I'm always against them.
11. SMU -7 v Army: Too much of a mismatch here. Army's defense is going to have a lot of trouble with the balance of the SMU offense, and SMU surprisingly has been solid in both phases of the defense as well. They did well against Navy, and I don't think Army has the chops to wolk into it's first bowl game in forever and compete effectively.
12. Syracuse pk v Kansas St: One of the few teams who will be a good matchup for Syracuse in my opinion. K State cannot stop the run. They have been brutalized by rushing attacks all year, and have been successful only when their own running attack gives the opponants all kinds of trouble. I don't think that will be the case here, because Syracuse has been good against the run and mostly sound in all phases defensively. The return game is the only issue for Syracuse here, since I have to assume that they can scheme for the K State running game.
Others: Going with North Carolina (-1) in somewhat of a tossup game with Tennessee. I don't like choosing the ACC in a matchup with the SEC, but these teams appear to be mostly evenly matched with a slight edge to UNC, since they pass the ball a little better and are slightly better on defense. Also, they have a true freshman QB against a 5th year senior who has had good success this year, and I"ll take Butch Davis over Derrek Dooley in the coaching matchup. I like Tennessee's offense lately, though.....Also going to go with a hunch and take the 14 with Washington in a matchup of the massacre Nebraska laid on them back in September. How Nebraska can be motivated for this game I have no idea. Also, when Washington played Nebraska, it was during the Taylor Martinez scorched earth tour, which came to a close after he sustained his ankle injury. At some point, Sarkisian's team has to show up in a big game, maybe they can keep it within two TDs.
Take care!
Air Force cashes another ticket, so we move to 5-2 for the season. This was another fortunate game, as Air Force never really got their offense rolling and scored their only TD on an 12 yard drive, but I thought Ga Tech would find a way to lose after the season they've had, and they did. Good fortune, I like it.
8. West Virginia -2 1/2 v NC State: Bet Us has it now at 2.5, so I jumped on it. When I saw this matchup, I assumed that I would be on the Wolfpack, considering I almost always back the Pack and at the same time, I always look for reasons to fade Bill Stewart and the 'Eers. Despite my deep admiration for Russell Wilson, I have to go with WV here. First, although there will be a schematic disadvantage for them, the WV players are almost certainly going to give a solid effort for lame duck Stewart. Defensively, they will have a strong advantage over the Wolfpack as WV ranks highly in almost every statistical category. They stop the run, they stop the pass, they rush the passer...very solid. On the other hand NC State is actually ranked only 73rd in overall ypp and can't run the ball to save their lives. That will put all the burden on Wilson, and NC State's OL has had a hard time protecting him. They'd better get that buttoned up quickly because WV is 3rd in the country in sacks. When WV has the ball, the defense will be in bettter position as well, but not to the extent that WV will enjoy. WV's pass offense under Geno Smith has been very good over the past 3-4 weeks, and Nc State is pourous against the pass. Close game, but I think WV handles NC State.
9. Iowa + 2 1/2 v Missouri: This is more of a hunch play, but I think Iowa will come out more motivated than Missouri will. Iowa was embarrassed in their last game against Minnesota, and they have heard for a month about how they lost 3 straight to finish the year. Although they had some guys suspended, they have guys that can step up, and there isn't anyone missing from a very disciplined and solid Iowa defense. If you check the numbers this year, Mizzou has been getting handled offensively by some teams that can only be classified as mediocre and that's on a good day. This will probably be the best defense that Missouri will face. Like I said, it's a hunch, but I played this one.
10. Baylor -1 v Illinois: Obviously, I'm not impartial here, but I know when they're facing a bad matchup for them, and Baylor is it. Big time coaching advantage with Briles v anybody in Orange and Blue. Also, Baylor's running Qb is just the right kind of guy that gives the Illini fits. They do ok vs plodding offenses,. but not against the fast paced/dymanic offenses like Baylor. On defense, they appear to be good enough to keep Illinois off balance. Better offense, comparable defenses, Ron Zook in the house...
Others: East Carolina can't stop a soul on defense, and that coincides with Maryland's offense finding their rhythm in the passing game. ECU can throw it too, but I see no resistance from these guys on the defensive side of the ball. I'm laying off a full unit because I question Maryland's chops to cover the number(-7)......I also lean toward Okie St(-4 1/2) over Arizona. That's it for now. take Care.
Noelle Nicole LaVette was born yesterday, 6 lbs 13 oz, 20 inches long. Everyone doing well, of course. Glad to spend 5 minutes taking a look at things before we get back to marveling at her and the job Carissa did yesterday.
First of all, I was glad to see Illinois prove me wrong on the musing that may or may not have been coherent from a couple nights ago. I've been wrong on them a lot this year...which is a good thing because I'm always against them.
11. SMU -7 v Army: Too much of a mismatch here. Army's defense is going to have a lot of trouble with the balance of the SMU offense, and SMU surprisingly has been solid in both phases of the defense as well. They did well against Navy, and I don't think Army has the chops to wolk into it's first bowl game in forever and compete effectively.
12. Syracuse pk v Kansas St: One of the few teams who will be a good matchup for Syracuse in my opinion. K State cannot stop the run. They have been brutalized by rushing attacks all year, and have been successful only when their own running attack gives the opponants all kinds of trouble. I don't think that will be the case here, because Syracuse has been good against the run and mostly sound in all phases defensively. The return game is the only issue for Syracuse here, since I have to assume that they can scheme for the K State running game.
Others: Going with North Carolina (-1) in somewhat of a tossup game with Tennessee. I don't like choosing the ACC in a matchup with the SEC, but these teams appear to be mostly evenly matched with a slight edge to UNC, since they pass the ball a little better and are slightly better on defense. Also, they have a true freshman QB against a 5th year senior who has had good success this year, and I"ll take Butch Davis over Derrek Dooley in the coaching matchup. I like Tennessee's offense lately, though.....Also going to go with a hunch and take the 14 with Washington in a matchup of the massacre Nebraska laid on them back in September. How Nebraska can be motivated for this game I have no idea. Also, when Washington played Nebraska, it was during the Taylor Martinez scorched earth tour, which came to a close after he sustained his ankle injury. At some point, Sarkisian's team has to show up in a big game, maybe they can keep it within two TDs.
Take care!
Monday, December 27, 2010
Independence Bowl 12/27
So far we're 4-2 through six games, lucky break last night with FIU because it looked to me after watching that game that Toledo was the right side. Hey, I can't bitch about getting no breaks the entire bowl season now..already got one. I hope everyone had a good Christmas. Most probably know this, but we've got an addition to the family coming on 12/29(Wednesday), so I will be paying attention to more important things than making uninformed football picks. Anyway, we move on to tonight:
7. Air Force -2 1/2 v Georgia Tech: You can get this at 2.5 in a lot of online shops,(including Sportsbook.com). My outlets were both -3, but one was even money and the other was -105, so I just bought it to 2.5 for -120. Obviously, this is an interesting game here since both teams are experts at running the option. Also, Paul Johnson and Troy Calhoun are two of my favorite coaches in CFB. Really, I wish they weren't playing each other so I could root for both. Oh well. Overall, this season can be classified as mostly shitty for Georgia Tech. They had a nice win against North Carolina as a dog early in the year, but mostly just played the patsy to the rest of the decent squads on their schedule, even dropping an early game to what turned out to be a horrendous Kansas team coached by home run hire Turner Gill. You remember Turner Gill, right? The guy that the mainstream media said should have gotten the Auburn job over Gene Chizik? Well, the Jackets lost to that guy's team. Tech's defense is terrible..they have had trouble stopping any and all offenses over the past couple of years, even last year in their BCS season. They are ranked 76th in total defense, 93rd agaisnt the run(ypc) and 70th against the pass. Believe it or not, AF can throw it effectively when they want to, ranking second in the country in yards per attempt and 15th in pass efficiency. I can actually see a scnario where Calhoun might see a weakness for Tech make it part of his game plan. GT, on the other hand is pretty much near the bottom in all passing categories, as their ability to throw pretty much left with Demaryius Thomas last year. The one issue with Air Force is their run defense, which was 96th this year, but they handled Navy well, and most of the big yardage they gave up was in games they won...maybe some garbage time situations. They can effectively game plan for the option, and they have experience stopping it. Also, they shut down Oklahoma's run, they shut down Utah's...they have some good performances there, so I'm not too concerned. At the end of the day, I think they are a better defense, and they are more balanced on offense than Georgia Tech. I also think it's asking a lot for Tech to come out and beat a disciplined, solid team like Air Force considering the season they've had.
That's it for now...hopefully I'll have some more stuff later on.
7. Air Force -2 1/2 v Georgia Tech: You can get this at 2.5 in a lot of online shops,(including Sportsbook.com). My outlets were both -3, but one was even money and the other was -105, so I just bought it to 2.5 for -120. Obviously, this is an interesting game here since both teams are experts at running the option. Also, Paul Johnson and Troy Calhoun are two of my favorite coaches in CFB. Really, I wish they weren't playing each other so I could root for both. Oh well. Overall, this season can be classified as mostly shitty for Georgia Tech. They had a nice win against North Carolina as a dog early in the year, but mostly just played the patsy to the rest of the decent squads on their schedule, even dropping an early game to what turned out to be a horrendous Kansas team coached by home run hire Turner Gill. You remember Turner Gill, right? The guy that the mainstream media said should have gotten the Auburn job over Gene Chizik? Well, the Jackets lost to that guy's team. Tech's defense is terrible..they have had trouble stopping any and all offenses over the past couple of years, even last year in their BCS season. They are ranked 76th in total defense, 93rd agaisnt the run(ypc) and 70th against the pass. Believe it or not, AF can throw it effectively when they want to, ranking second in the country in yards per attempt and 15th in pass efficiency. I can actually see a scnario where Calhoun might see a weakness for Tech make it part of his game plan. GT, on the other hand is pretty much near the bottom in all passing categories, as their ability to throw pretty much left with Demaryius Thomas last year. The one issue with Air Force is their run defense, which was 96th this year, but they handled Navy well, and most of the big yardage they gave up was in games they won...maybe some garbage time situations. They can effectively game plan for the option, and they have experience stopping it. Also, they shut down Oklahoma's run, they shut down Utah's...they have some good performances there, so I'm not too concerned. At the end of the day, I think they are a better defense, and they are more balanced on offense than Georgia Tech. I also think it's asking a lot for Tech to come out and beat a disciplined, solid team like Air Force considering the season they've had.
That's it for now...hopefully I'll have some more stuff later on.
Friday, December 24, 2010
Bowl Musings through 12/26
I'm including the time stamp of the email I sent, since I forgot to post this here.
Wed, December 22, 2010 5:19:27 PMMore Bowl Musings
From: Peter LavetteView Contact
To: asavick@hotmail.com; bradlazzari@hotmail.com; kevin.haas@chrobinson.com; jonathan hyun; mikelavette@yahoo.com; jefflavette@yahoo.com; jim.turco@sbcglobal.net
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1-1 so far on numbered bowl musings with a lean to Troy which turned out to be a win. I had absolutely no idea on the game last night between Southern Miss and Louisville, so I didn't even bother sending out any thoughts. I thought both the spread and over/under were well lined, and that both were a complete tossup, so believe it or not, I laid off on that game...I thuink it's the first bowl game in 5 years that I had no action on. Good thing too. The spread ended up at Louiville -2.5. They won 31-28. The over/under was 60. It was the right game to lay off of.
3. Boise -16 v Utah: I should mention that this is play #1 for the LaVette family picks, and it's by a longshot. For some reason, this spread has dropped to 16, maybe it might go back up within the next couple of hours, who knows? Obviously, I'm never all that keen on laying this many points in a bowl game, but Utah had a chance to hang with a true contender in early November and got shellacked by TCU on their home field by 40. A lot of times, when I'm capping these bowl games, I try to put myself in each coach's shoes and try to gameplan for the opponent. If there's a clear strategy that I can come up with, that's a good sign for that team. In Boise's case, it's pretty obvious that they are going to want to stuff Utah's run and make backup QB Terrence Cain(the starter Wynn is doubtful) beat them with a passing attack. Since Utah has either failed to run or struggled mighttily in most of their last 5 games, this probably won't be too tough for the #4 rush defense in the country. In all seriousness, Utah should be on a 5 game losing streak. They lost to ND and TCU, and escaped by the skin of their teeth after being outplayed by SDSU, AirForce and BYU. They couldn't run effectively on AirForice...I'm going to assume they won't run on Boise either. On the flip side, how will Whittingham(an admittedly good coach) attack Boise? They are too balanced to concentrate on one area. You can only hope you just play out of your ass against them. I think Utah's only chance to compete in this one would be if Boise was completely unmotivated and dying to get the hell out of there. I don't think that will be the case, since they got into a mini brawl the other day with the Utes during some pre bowl function, and one of the Utes made fun of them on twitter.
"I can't wait to get out here wit these Boise State or should I say Girlse State they a bunch of cheerleaders...lol."-Utah WR DeVonte Christopher. My guess is that Boise comes out firing, and the Utah team that couldn't move it against Notre Dame and laid down against TCU shows up. 41-13 Boise.
4. San Diego St -3 1/2 v Navy: I'm sure that everyone knows that I love betting on service academies, and especially on navy in bowl games, but in this case, I really think the value lies with SDSU. The Aztecs have been a very solid team this year. they've lost 4 games: Heartbreakers(and controversial losses) to BYU and Utah by a FG, a last second loss at Missouri on a 68 yard TD pass a loss at TCU that turned out to be TCU's only close game all year. They are ranked 16th on ypp on defense and 12th in ypp on offense. They have very good balance on offense as well, as they have been good on the ground and also have a good QB in Ryan Lindley and two playmaking receivers. Navy is always a tough nut to crack, but this is one of the few years n which they really haven't played anyone. They've run on everyone, as usual, but the vast majority of the defenses they've played are ranked in the bottom fourth of the country...only Maryland and Air Force from their schedule were in the top 3/4 of teams in ypp, and they scored 14 and 6 points in those games. As I mentioned, SDSU is ranked 16th. That doesn't mean that they'll shut down Navy..far from it, since they gave up the requesite 300+ on the ground against Air Force, but that didn't stop them from winning the game. But navy is going to have all kinds of trouble stopping the SDSU passing attack. For the year they are ranked 86th against the pass, having been torched by CMU (36/58 394 3/0), ECU (43/65 413 5/0) and even Army's Trent Steelman, generally considered the worst passer in America (11/20 140 2/0). SDSU is a lot better than those guys in the passing game, and they have a good run game to boot. Also, remember that Aztec coach Brady Hoke handled Navy pretty easily a couple years ago when he was at Ball State with much weaker defensive takent than he has now. I just think that Navy is going to have a hard time, especially on defense with what looks to be the best team they will play this year.
5. @Hawaii -10 v Tulsa: As usual, Hawaii gets to play a home game for it's bowl. Hawaii is 10-3..they've had a really nice year. They are the top passing team in the country yardage wise, and they are matched up with Tulsa, who is ranked 119th out of 120 teams in passing yards against. I don't see any scenario where Hawaii doesn't throw at will on Tulsa. Now obviously, this spread isn't out of control, and that's because Tulsa is no slouch on offense themselves. However, Hawaii has one of the best defenses that they've had in a long time, actually ranking 20th overall in yards per play nationwide. They've really been dominant if you look at their whole body of work, and the WAC this year was comparable to CUSA. Hawaii proved itself by beating Nevada and holding that rushing attack to only 293 yards of total offense. If you take away the prison raping they took at Boise, they've averaged 520 yards and given up 311, a whopping 200+ difference that's about as good as anyone in the country. Tulsa has a sizable advantage in the return games, but if Hawaii can just hold their own in that area, they should be in very good shape to cover this one. I think they'll be in the 50s for sure.
6. FIU +2 v Toledo: This is a total shit game, but FIU looks like a better team to me. They're probably getting points because they went 6-6 while Toldo was 8-4, but you could make a case that FIU played a much tougher schedule, and I think the Sun Belt is probably a step up as far as speed from the MAC. Troy showed that when the hammered Ohio a couple days ago in whatever bowl it was that they played in. FIU has done ok in games against bowl opponents, having hung close with Texas A&M, Maryland(outgained and should have beat them) and Pitt(not as bad as the final score indicated. They also badly outgained Rutgers and blew out another SunBelt bowl team Troy at Troy. At the end of the day, I just think that we'll see a pretty solid speed difference in this game, even though Toledo has some good players on offense. I'll take the points here.
That's it for now. I'll have some more in the coming days. Merry Christmas to everyone.
Wed, December 22, 2010 5:19:27 PMMore Bowl Musings
From: Peter Lavette
To: asavick@hotmail.com; bradlazzari@hotmail.com; kevin.haas@chrobinson.com; jonathan hyun
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1-1 so far on numbered bowl musings with a lean to Troy which turned out to be a win. I had absolutely no idea on the game last night between Southern Miss and Louisville, so I didn't even bother sending out any thoughts. I thought both the spread and over/under were well lined, and that both were a complete tossup, so believe it or not, I laid off on that game...I thuink it's the first bowl game in 5 years that I had no action on. Good thing too. The spread ended up at Louiville -2.5. They won 31-28. The over/under was 60. It was the right game to lay off of.
3. Boise -16 v Utah: I should mention that this is play #1 for the LaVette family picks, and it's by a longshot. For some reason, this spread has dropped to 16, maybe it might go back up within the next couple of hours, who knows? Obviously, I'm never all that keen on laying this many points in a bowl game, but Utah had a chance to hang with a true contender in early November and got shellacked by TCU on their home field by 40. A lot of times, when I'm capping these bowl games, I try to put myself in each coach's shoes and try to gameplan for the opponent. If there's a clear strategy that I can come up with, that's a good sign for that team. In Boise's case, it's pretty obvious that they are going to want to stuff Utah's run and make backup QB Terrence Cain(the starter Wynn is doubtful) beat them with a passing attack. Since Utah has either failed to run or struggled mighttily in most of their last 5 games, this probably won't be too tough for the #4 rush defense in the country. In all seriousness, Utah should be on a 5 game losing streak. They lost to ND and TCU, and escaped by the skin of their teeth after being outplayed by SDSU, AirForce and BYU. They couldn't run effectively on AirForice...I'm going to assume they won't run on Boise either. On the flip side, how will Whittingham(an admittedly good coach) attack Boise? They are too balanced to concentrate on one area. You can only hope you just play out of your ass against them. I think Utah's only chance to compete in this one would be if Boise was completely unmotivated and dying to get the hell out of there. I don't think that will be the case, since they got into a mini brawl the other day with the Utes during some pre bowl function, and one of the Utes made fun of them on twitter.
"I can't wait to get out here wit these Boise State or should I say Girlse State they a bunch of cheerleaders...lol."-Utah WR DeVonte Christopher. My guess is that Boise comes out firing, and the Utah team that couldn't move it against Notre Dame and laid down against TCU shows up. 41-13 Boise.
4. San Diego St -3 1/2 v Navy: I'm sure that everyone knows that I love betting on service academies, and especially on navy in bowl games, but in this case, I really think the value lies with SDSU. The Aztecs have been a very solid team this year. they've lost 4 games: Heartbreakers(and controversial losses) to BYU and Utah by a FG, a last second loss at Missouri on a 68 yard TD pass a loss at TCU that turned out to be TCU's only close game all year. They are ranked 16th on ypp on defense and 12th in ypp on offense. They have very good balance on offense as well, as they have been good on the ground and also have a good QB in Ryan Lindley and two playmaking receivers. Navy is always a tough nut to crack, but this is one of the few years n which they really haven't played anyone. They've run on everyone, as usual, but the vast majority of the defenses they've played are ranked in the bottom fourth of the country...only Maryland and Air Force from their schedule were in the top 3/4 of teams in ypp, and they scored 14 and 6 points in those games. As I mentioned, SDSU is ranked 16th. That doesn't mean that they'll shut down Navy..far from it, since they gave up the requesite 300+ on the ground against Air Force, but that didn't stop them from winning the game. But navy is going to have all kinds of trouble stopping the SDSU passing attack. For the year they are ranked 86th against the pass, having been torched by CMU (36/58 394 3/0), ECU (43/65 413 5/0) and even Army's Trent Steelman, generally considered the worst passer in America (11/20 140 2/0). SDSU is a lot better than those guys in the passing game, and they have a good run game to boot. Also, remember that Aztec coach Brady Hoke handled Navy pretty easily a couple years ago when he was at Ball State with much weaker defensive takent than he has now. I just think that Navy is going to have a hard time, especially on defense with what looks to be the best team they will play this year.
5. @Hawaii -10 v Tulsa: As usual, Hawaii gets to play a home game for it's bowl. Hawaii is 10-3..they've had a really nice year. They are the top passing team in the country yardage wise, and they are matched up with Tulsa, who is ranked 119th out of 120 teams in passing yards against. I don't see any scenario where Hawaii doesn't throw at will on Tulsa. Now obviously, this spread isn't out of control, and that's because Tulsa is no slouch on offense themselves. However, Hawaii has one of the best defenses that they've had in a long time, actually ranking 20th overall in yards per play nationwide. They've really been dominant if you look at their whole body of work, and the WAC this year was comparable to CUSA. Hawaii proved itself by beating Nevada and holding that rushing attack to only 293 yards of total offense. If you take away the prison raping they took at Boise, they've averaged 520 yards and given up 311, a whopping 200+ difference that's about as good as anyone in the country. Tulsa has a sizable advantage in the return games, but if Hawaii can just hold their own in that area, they should be in very good shape to cover this one. I think they'll be in the 50s for sure.
6. FIU +2 v Toledo: This is a total shit game, but FIU looks like a better team to me. They're probably getting points because they went 6-6 while Toldo was 8-4, but you could make a case that FIU played a much tougher schedule, and I think the Sun Belt is probably a step up as far as speed from the MAC. Troy showed that when the hammered Ohio a couple days ago in whatever bowl it was that they played in. FIU has done ok in games against bowl opponents, having hung close with Texas A&M, Maryland(outgained and should have beat them) and Pitt(not as bad as the final score indicated. They also badly outgained Rutgers and blew out another SunBelt bowl team Troy at Troy. At the end of the day, I just think that we'll see a pretty solid speed difference in this game, even though Toledo has some good players on offense. I'll take the points here.
That's it for now. I'll have some more in the coming days. Merry Christmas to everyone.
Saturday, December 18, 2010
Early Bowl Musings
OK everyone, let's get started on these bowls. Even I, the ardent bowl supporter, must admit that it's hard to get excitred for some of these, and the three that will be going on tomorrow are certainly not anything to write home about. Before I get started, however, I want to cover a couple things:
First, I feel the need to directly address Jim for what I believe will be the first time: My wife thinks that your brother Marty sucks ass and can't stop a puck if his life depended on it. She also thinks his mask "looks stupid with those dumb gargoyles on it." I don't feel that strongly about it, but I would go so far as to recommend getting in the way of the occasional puck after it's coughed up by Brent Seabrook. Maybe one or two out of ten. Is that too much to ask? I realize that Keith and Seabrook's polite requests for opposing forwards to please leave the crease have been met with middle fingers and other rude gestures, but shit, make a tough save every once in awhile. If you could pass along those thoughts to Marty, that would be great.
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the systematic emasculating of the Big ten. Everyone knows that they've completely fucked up that league with the idiotic divisional lineups, and further embarrassed themselves with all these gay trophies, but the names of the divisions, which I won't repeat, have made the league a laughingstock. Why they didn't just go ahead and name them the hogsmokers and cockgobblers, I'll never know.
I also noticed that there's a lot of hand wringing and nervousness about the Bears and Vikings playing at the new Gopher stadium outdoors, since the field was built with no expectation for any games after about November 20th or so. As a result, the field will be frozen, and dangerous since it'll be below zero. Boy, after last week's Bears game, and now this fiasco, that suggested 18 game schedule that will take the regular season to mid to late January sure seems like a good idea doesn't it? Let's add two more weeks of this shit!! Ok..on to the games. None of the games on Saturday
1. BYU -11 1/2 v UTEP: I believe this is the only time this year that I have recommended BYU in a game, but even as a significant favorite, I have to back them here. This is a battle of 6-6 teams, and between them, there really isn't a significant victory among the 12 combined wins of the two except BYU's win at home against San Diego St, and that game is still under investigation. However, it can't be denied that BYU got on a nice roll at the end of the year, both offensively and defensively. Although the Mountain West was borderline pathetic this year, BYU still enjoys a significant strength of schedule advantage over UTEP...they are clearly a step up from what UTEP is used to playing. Defensively, UTEP has had a hard time stopping anyone, so I'd expect the Jake Heaps/Luke Ashworth combo to have continued success against a secondary that game up chunks of yards to some sad sack offenses. UTEP was consistently outgained by what has been measured as the 117th toughest schedule. Their wins have been against the dregs of college football...New Mexico, New Mexico State, Memphis, Rice, Arkansas Pine Bluff...you get the picture. BYU is clearly the best team they've faced. In order to stay close, they are going to have to throw the ball down field with effectiveness. Based on their success in that area this year, I don't see it. QB Trevor Vittatoe has been hurt all year, and needs surgery on his ankle. Here are some of his numbers this year: V Tulsa the 104th ranked d in YPA, he went 8/20 for 100 yards, 0 TD 1 INT. V Tulane, 73rd ranked, he was 10/21 for 102 yards 1 TD 2 INT. VS UAB, 83rd ranked, he was 15/33 160, 0/3. He was occasionally good, but against a real defense being coached by a real coach, I think he'll struggle, and if that's the case, the game won't be close.
2. Fresno State +2 v Northern Illinois: Fresno usually can be capped by looking at their opponent. If they are facing a BCS opponent that's supposed to beat them, they get up for it and play inspired. If not, they don't give a shit and get beat, much like last year when a terrible Wyoming team that was a 12 point underdog beat them outright. This year is a bit of a mixed bag, as they are playing a MAC team, but they're the underdog in the game. NIU is favored because they had some great stats in a weak MAC this year, and on paper it looks like they will be able to run the ball on Fresno, but on the flip side, Fresno should be able to run and pass on NIU on the blue turf in Boise. This is a step up for NIU in class, and I'm not comfortable with them being a favorite in this one, especially when Jerry Kill won't be around to coach them. Pat Hill is a complete moron, but sometimes that doesn't matter. Fresno has a good passing game, a very strong running back who will be back from a previous injury, and I think they will be properly motivated in their underdog role. I'll be very surprised if NIU can pull out a victory.
No opinion on the Ohio/Troy game. I think you'll see a speed advantage with Troy, so I might be tempted to go that way, but they have had big troubles this year on defense. Ohio's starting QB will be out, so with the better proximity and the speed advantage, I'll probably lay the short number with Troy(-2)
That's it for now, next bowl game is Tuesday..I'll be back before then.
First, I feel the need to directly address Jim for what I believe will be the first time: My wife thinks that your brother Marty sucks ass and can't stop a puck if his life depended on it. She also thinks his mask "looks stupid with those dumb gargoyles on it." I don't feel that strongly about it, but I would go so far as to recommend getting in the way of the occasional puck after it's coughed up by Brent Seabrook. Maybe one or two out of ten. Is that too much to ask? I realize that Keith and Seabrook's polite requests for opposing forwards to please leave the crease have been met with middle fingers and other rude gestures, but shit, make a tough save every once in awhile. If you could pass along those thoughts to Marty, that would be great.
I'm not going to spend a lot of time on the systematic emasculating of the Big ten. Everyone knows that they've completely fucked up that league with the idiotic divisional lineups, and further embarrassed themselves with all these gay trophies, but the names of the divisions, which I won't repeat, have made the league a laughingstock. Why they didn't just go ahead and name them the hogsmokers and cockgobblers, I'll never know.
I also noticed that there's a lot of hand wringing and nervousness about the Bears and Vikings playing at the new Gopher stadium outdoors, since the field was built with no expectation for any games after about November 20th or so. As a result, the field will be frozen, and dangerous since it'll be below zero. Boy, after last week's Bears game, and now this fiasco, that suggested 18 game schedule that will take the regular season to mid to late January sure seems like a good idea doesn't it? Let's add two more weeks of this shit!! Ok..on to the games. None of the games on Saturday
1. BYU -11 1/2 v UTEP: I believe this is the only time this year that I have recommended BYU in a game, but even as a significant favorite, I have to back them here. This is a battle of 6-6 teams, and between them, there really isn't a significant victory among the 12 combined wins of the two except BYU's win at home against San Diego St, and that game is still under investigation. However, it can't be denied that BYU got on a nice roll at the end of the year, both offensively and defensively. Although the Mountain West was borderline pathetic this year, BYU still enjoys a significant strength of schedule advantage over UTEP...they are clearly a step up from what UTEP is used to playing. Defensively, UTEP has had a hard time stopping anyone, so I'd expect the Jake Heaps/Luke Ashworth combo to have continued success against a secondary that game up chunks of yards to some sad sack offenses. UTEP was consistently outgained by what has been measured as the 117th toughest schedule. Their wins have been against the dregs of college football...New Mexico, New Mexico State, Memphis, Rice, Arkansas Pine Bluff...you get the picture. BYU is clearly the best team they've faced. In order to stay close, they are going to have to throw the ball down field with effectiveness. Based on their success in that area this year, I don't see it. QB Trevor Vittatoe has been hurt all year, and needs surgery on his ankle. Here are some of his numbers this year: V Tulsa the 104th ranked d in YPA, he went 8/20 for 100 yards, 0 TD 1 INT. V Tulane, 73rd ranked, he was 10/21 for 102 yards 1 TD 2 INT. VS UAB, 83rd ranked, he was 15/33 160, 0/3. He was occasionally good, but against a real defense being coached by a real coach, I think he'll struggle, and if that's the case, the game won't be close.
2. Fresno State +2 v Northern Illinois: Fresno usually can be capped by looking at their opponent. If they are facing a BCS opponent that's supposed to beat them, they get up for it and play inspired. If not, they don't give a shit and get beat, much like last year when a terrible Wyoming team that was a 12 point underdog beat them outright. This year is a bit of a mixed bag, as they are playing a MAC team, but they're the underdog in the game. NIU is favored because they had some great stats in a weak MAC this year, and on paper it looks like they will be able to run the ball on Fresno, but on the flip side, Fresno should be able to run and pass on NIU on the blue turf in Boise. This is a step up for NIU in class, and I'm not comfortable with them being a favorite in this one, especially when Jerry Kill won't be around to coach them. Pat Hill is a complete moron, but sometimes that doesn't matter. Fresno has a good passing game, a very strong running back who will be back from a previous injury, and I think they will be properly motivated in their underdog role. I'll be very surprised if NIU can pull out a victory.
No opinion on the Ohio/Troy game. I think you'll see a speed advantage with Troy, so I might be tempted to go that way, but they have had big troubles this year on defense. Ohio's starting QB will be out, so with the better proximity and the speed advantage, I'll probably lay the short number with Troy(-2)
That's it for now, next bowl game is Tuesday..I'll be back before then.
Week 14 Musings Continued
Yikes...never did post this....sorry.
OK....here I am watching this stupid Illinois game at all hours of the night, and I am reminded once again of how mind numbingly stupid most football coaches are. The big surprise is that I am not even going to talk about the Zooker or Less Miles or Bill Stewart. There is a new kid on the black, who can out-meathead the rest of the meatheads. That meathead is Pat Hill, Fresno State head coach. Consider: You are up 19-17 in the 3rd quarter. You score a TD to make it 25-17. Great!! An extra point makes it 26-17, a 9 point lead and a 2 possession game! Whoo, it was a nailbiter there, but now you have some breathing room. except you don't have breathing room because this imbecile went for 2 so he could be up 10, since that it a more tidy score I suppose. Well, now when you don't get the conversion, you are only up 8, and it's still a 1 possession game. Also, even if the other team scores and misses the two point conversion, you still are up only 2, and can lose on a FG. That may have been the worst coaching decision I've seen all year, and in the year of the Dooley/Miles idiot slap fight to the death, that's saying something.
But he didn't stop there. Up 25-23 with about 3 minutes left, he's faced with a 4th down and 1 at midfield. Any moron with any sense at all punts if a FG beats you there. He's facing a Big Ten team whose strength is stopping the run, and he's playing a slender backup running back. His QB has been shredding the Illinois pass D all game. So what does he do? He goes for it. Even worse, he calls a line plunge with the previously mentioned scrub running back. Luckily for him, after his RB stumbled into the line and got blasted for no gain, some idiot line judge marked the ball a full yard ahead of where he was tackled and the leaky faucet replay official didn't have the gonads to overturn the call, so it worked out for him, bringing about a meathead fist pump when the measurement indicated a first down. They subsequently milked the clock down to 20 seconds, since Zook had to rightly use one of his timeouts to challenge the spot and won the game. He should have single handedly lost that game for his kids. Now he'll probably be called some sort of gutsy riverboat gambler. The kind of guy who hits on a 20. As if stupidity should be celebrated.
Speaking of stupidity, what in the hell is going on with this Cam Newton thing? The NCAA rule states that if it's detemines that a player or any family member or representative asked for money in order to commit somewhere, he's ineligible. The NCAA stated that they believe that Cecil Newton asked for money. Cam Newton is still playing. What am I missing here? Apparently, the NCAA concluded that Cam knew nothing of any silicitation of cash by his father. Even if anyone was so thoroughly naive enough to believe that, it doesn't make any difference. Even worse, in the wake of the announcement, was this statement by new NCAA President Mark Emmert (I'm paraphrasing here):
"We recognize that many people are outraged at the notion that a parent or anyone else could 'shop around' a student-athlete and there would possibly not be repercussions on the student-athlete's eligibility," Emmert said in a statement on the NCAA's website. Emmert added that he's committed to "further clarifying and strengthening our recruiting and amateurism rules so they promote appropriate behavior by students, parents, coaches and third parties." He also said the NCAA will "work aggressively with our members to amend our bylaws so that this type of behavior is not a part of intercollegiate athletics."
So guess what...parents, it's open season. Get your loot now, just make sure you don't tell your student athelete about it, or at least make it appear that the kid doesn't know anything. It's a good racket. Just make sure you do it now, because they are eventually going to "amend the bylaws" soon.6-7 last week. 73-86-6 is the record.
1. Auburn -4 1/2(betus) v South Carolina: I really hope that the ball coach wins this one, because I don't want Auburn to win. I'll just leave it at that rather than getting into a diatribe about the multitude of reasons for this. I think Auburn will win this mostly because of their offense...I just don't think that South Carolina can stop Newton from scoring TDs, especially late The first game at Auburn was close, but by the end of the game, SC couldn't do anything to stop Auburn's run. In this one, both teams struggle to sto the pass, and I don't think that there's any doubt that Spurrier will scheme some ways to get some big plays i the passing game, especially with Auburn so geared up to stop Marcus Lattimore. But at the end of the day, even if South Carolina is up late, I just don't see SC getting any stops against them. In the first game, SC had a great situationsl advatage,(coming off a game with Furman while Auburn played an emotional OT game against Clemson). Now the situation isn't as favorable and Auburn has the MNC carrott in front of them. I was close to leaning SC here, but in the end, I can't see Auburn losing this game, and 4 1/2 isn't enough to expect a cover on an outright loss. I'll be rooting for SC, though.
2. @Washington State +6 v Washington: A couple of sad sack teams here, but Wazzou has looked much better as the season has gone along, and completely dominated Oregon St in their last game. They have had 2 weeks off and Washington played a tough game last week against Cal. The Cougs can make their season by winning and thus keeping Washington out of a bowl. I think that motivation and their improved play will be enough in this one, plus, Washington, like Wazzou, can't stop anyone on defense, and the Cougs have been pretty competent lately on offense.
3. Florida State +4 v Virginia Tech: I just got it at 4 at Bodog. The world is expecting Virginia tech to roll in this one, but if you closely look at the matchups, outside of assuming a turnover avalanche to benefit VT, I think most of the edges are with FSU. The Noles have been solid in almost all phases, especially defensively. VT on the other hand, while solid against the pass, has had trouble stopping any competent running game, ranking 92nd in the country in ypc against. FSU has been able to run effectively in almost every game, and I can see the Noles gringing things out inthis one much like they did against Miami, who has a superior defense overall to VT. VT's strength has been the passing game, but they have struggled at times to keep Tyrod Taylor upright, and FSU is 2nd inthr country in sacks. To me, this looks like a very favorable matchup for FSU, and they are the ones getting the points.
4. Nebraska +4 1/2 v Oklahoma: I should probably have my head examined for making this play, because previous experience might tell you that there is no way in hell that the Big 12 is letting Nebraska and the psychopathic Pellini brothers out of Jerry's World with that trophy. I really want to see it though. Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe added his name this week to the list of gutless sympathy hounds by claiming that he and people in his office have gotten death threats from Nebraska fans due to the recent questionable referee calls in their games. I really hate when people do that, especially when the guy in question is supposed to be above the fray. Rather than go to the authorities, though, Beebe instead runs to the waiting arms of the college football media, who then heroically make the courageous decision to attack the unnamed lunatic finge of a fanbase. Boy, that takes guts. Not like "crazy internet fans" isn't an east target. http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270202/26127215. I don't know about anyone else, but this article made me want to puke. By the way, no authorities have been contacted by Dan Beebe about any death threats, so if he's really concerned about actual death threats, he's doing his family a disservice. http://www.omaha.com/article/20101202/BIGRED/712029770/-1#notes-dallas-police-say-no-investigation-of-beebe-threats. Fuck him. Anyway, back to the game. Nebraska's defense will be the best one that Oklahoma has faced, similar to Texas, who completely shut OU down for the majority of their game. Offensively, Taylor Martinez is questionable, both in his status for the game and his character, but I don't think it really matters who is playing QB for them. Rex Burkhead has been doing a great job in the Wildcat when they've used him there, and Cody Green is capable. Oklahoma will not be able to run the ball, and I think Nebraska will. This will be a very motivated Nebraska team who will be spitting nails in an us against the world type outlook. Even though I'm expecting bad calls against Nebraska, I can't truly believe that the Big 12 will go so far as to assure a loss for Nebraska. If it's an even playing field, I think nebraska wins this one.
5. UCONN +2 1/2 @South Florida: Uconn has a chance to go to a BCS game if they win. They might want to just go ahead and lose, because the uproar from the media at the prospect of them playing in a BCS game will end up bringing them more ridicule than anything else. Screw the media though. We all know the Big East sucks...give it a rest. UConn is coming off 4 straight wins after a shutout loss to Louisville that had everyone assuming Uconn was done. They relish the underdog role, while USF, who doesn't have a whole lot to play for, strugggles in the favorite's role. The only offensive facet of wither one of these teams that's worth a shit is UConn's running game. Jordan Todman figures out ways to grind out yards, and he'll probably do it here as well. Otherwise, the defenses have the big edge in every other facet. I'll take the points with UConn here as they try to make their first trip to the BCs under Edsall.
Others: Leaning toward SMU +9, in the CUSA title game at UCF. These two teams are pretty statistically similar and this game seems to feature an upset almost every year, much like the MAC title game, which held to form last night. Poor Huskies. Now they don't get to return to the Detroit ghetto in 3 weeks to play Florida International, and are stuck going somewhere like San Diego or Mobile. I can see why they are so distraught.....Nevada faces the ultimate letdown situation, having to travel all the way to Ruston, La to play La tech, who is normally a tough out at home. The spread also looks mysteriously low (8). Bad combination: Fishy line, terrible situation for the road favorite, live dog, 75%+ of the public on Nevada. Not sayin, I'm just sayin. I'll be on LT for the heck of it....Matt Barkley is back for USC, so they should be able to handle UCLA in a somewhat short line at the Rose Bowl(6). You all know what I think about UCLA, an it might be time to ponder the possibility that their defense might be as bad as their offense, a frightening proposition. If Kiffin loses this one, another plum job might come open Monday morning. Or maybe even early Sunday morning. Pat haden is like a Pavlovian dog waiting to fire that asshole. ....That's it....take care!!!
OK....here I am watching this stupid Illinois game at all hours of the night, and I am reminded once again of how mind numbingly stupid most football coaches are. The big surprise is that I am not even going to talk about the Zooker or Less Miles or Bill Stewart. There is a new kid on the black, who can out-meathead the rest of the meatheads. That meathead is Pat Hill, Fresno State head coach. Consider: You are up 19-17 in the 3rd quarter. You score a TD to make it 25-17. Great!! An extra point makes it 26-17, a 9 point lead and a 2 possession game! Whoo, it was a nailbiter there, but now you have some breathing room. except you don't have breathing room because this imbecile went for 2 so he could be up 10, since that it a more tidy score I suppose. Well, now when you don't get the conversion, you are only up 8, and it's still a 1 possession game. Also, even if the other team scores and misses the two point conversion, you still are up only 2, and can lose on a FG. That may have been the worst coaching decision I've seen all year, and in the year of the Dooley/Miles idiot slap fight to the death, that's saying something.
But he didn't stop there. Up 25-23 with about 3 minutes left, he's faced with a 4th down and 1 at midfield. Any moron with any sense at all punts if a FG beats you there. He's facing a Big Ten team whose strength is stopping the run, and he's playing a slender backup running back. His QB has been shredding the Illinois pass D all game. So what does he do? He goes for it. Even worse, he calls a line plunge with the previously mentioned scrub running back. Luckily for him, after his RB stumbled into the line and got blasted for no gain, some idiot line judge marked the ball a full yard ahead of where he was tackled and the leaky faucet replay official didn't have the gonads to overturn the call, so it worked out for him, bringing about a meathead fist pump when the measurement indicated a first down. They subsequently milked the clock down to 20 seconds, since Zook had to rightly use one of his timeouts to challenge the spot and won the game. He should have single handedly lost that game for his kids. Now he'll probably be called some sort of gutsy riverboat gambler. The kind of guy who hits on a 20. As if stupidity should be celebrated.
Speaking of stupidity, what in the hell is going on with this Cam Newton thing? The NCAA rule states that if it's detemines that a player or any family member or representative asked for money in order to commit somewhere, he's ineligible. The NCAA stated that they believe that Cecil Newton asked for money. Cam Newton is still playing. What am I missing here? Apparently, the NCAA concluded that Cam knew nothing of any silicitation of cash by his father. Even if anyone was so thoroughly naive enough to believe that, it doesn't make any difference. Even worse, in the wake of the announcement, was this statement by new NCAA President Mark Emmert (I'm paraphrasing here):
"We recognize that many people are outraged at the notion that a parent or anyone else could 'shop around' a student-athlete and there would possibly not be repercussions on the student-athlete's eligibility," Emmert said in a statement on the NCAA's website. Emmert added that he's committed to "further clarifying and strengthening our recruiting and amateurism rules so they promote appropriate behavior by students, parents, coaches and third parties." He also said the NCAA will "work aggressively with our members to amend our bylaws so that this type of behavior is not a part of intercollegiate athletics."
So guess what...parents, it's open season. Get your loot now, just make sure you don't tell your student athelete about it, or at least make it appear that the kid doesn't know anything. It's a good racket. Just make sure you do it now, because they are eventually going to "amend the bylaws" soon.6-7 last week. 73-86-6 is the record.
1. Auburn -4 1/2(betus) v South Carolina: I really hope that the ball coach wins this one, because I don't want Auburn to win. I'll just leave it at that rather than getting into a diatribe about the multitude of reasons for this. I think Auburn will win this mostly because of their offense...I just don't think that South Carolina can stop Newton from scoring TDs, especially late The first game at Auburn was close, but by the end of the game, SC couldn't do anything to stop Auburn's run. In this one, both teams struggle to sto the pass, and I don't think that there's any doubt that Spurrier will scheme some ways to get some big plays i the passing game, especially with Auburn so geared up to stop Marcus Lattimore. But at the end of the day, even if South Carolina is up late, I just don't see SC getting any stops against them. In the first game, SC had a great situationsl advatage,(coming off a game with Furman while Auburn played an emotional OT game against Clemson). Now the situation isn't as favorable and Auburn has the MNC carrott in front of them. I was close to leaning SC here, but in the end, I can't see Auburn losing this game, and 4 1/2 isn't enough to expect a cover on an outright loss. I'll be rooting for SC, though.
2. @Washington State +6 v Washington: A couple of sad sack teams here, but Wazzou has looked much better as the season has gone along, and completely dominated Oregon St in their last game. They have had 2 weeks off and Washington played a tough game last week against Cal. The Cougs can make their season by winning and thus keeping Washington out of a bowl. I think that motivation and their improved play will be enough in this one, plus, Washington, like Wazzou, can't stop anyone on defense, and the Cougs have been pretty competent lately on offense.
3. Florida State +4 v Virginia Tech: I just got it at 4 at Bodog. The world is expecting Virginia tech to roll in this one, but if you closely look at the matchups, outside of assuming a turnover avalanche to benefit VT, I think most of the edges are with FSU. The Noles have been solid in almost all phases, especially defensively. VT on the other hand, while solid against the pass, has had trouble stopping any competent running game, ranking 92nd in the country in ypc against. FSU has been able to run effectively in almost every game, and I can see the Noles gringing things out inthis one much like they did against Miami, who has a superior defense overall to VT. VT's strength has been the passing game, but they have struggled at times to keep Tyrod Taylor upright, and FSU is 2nd inthr country in sacks. To me, this looks like a very favorable matchup for FSU, and they are the ones getting the points.
4. Nebraska +4 1/2 v Oklahoma: I should probably have my head examined for making this play, because previous experience might tell you that there is no way in hell that the Big 12 is letting Nebraska and the psychopathic Pellini brothers out of Jerry's World with that trophy. I really want to see it though. Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe added his name this week to the list of gutless sympathy hounds by claiming that he and people in his office have gotten death threats from Nebraska fans due to the recent questionable referee calls in their games. I really hate when people do that, especially when the guy in question is supposed to be above the fray. Rather than go to the authorities, though, Beebe instead runs to the waiting arms of the college football media, who then heroically make the courageous decision to attack the unnamed lunatic finge of a fanbase. Boy, that takes guts. Not like "crazy internet fans" isn't an east target. http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/6270202/26127215. I don't know about anyone else, but this article made me want to puke. By the way, no authorities have been contacted by Dan Beebe about any death threats, so if he's really concerned about actual death threats, he's doing his family a disservice. http://www.omaha.com/article/20101202/BIGRED/712029770/-1#notes-dallas-police-say-no-investigation-of-beebe-threats. Fuck him. Anyway, back to the game. Nebraska's defense will be the best one that Oklahoma has faced, similar to Texas, who completely shut OU down for the majority of their game. Offensively, Taylor Martinez is questionable, both in his status for the game and his character, but I don't think it really matters who is playing QB for them. Rex Burkhead has been doing a great job in the Wildcat when they've used him there, and Cody Green is capable. Oklahoma will not be able to run the ball, and I think Nebraska will. This will be a very motivated Nebraska team who will be spitting nails in an us against the world type outlook. Even though I'm expecting bad calls against Nebraska, I can't truly believe that the Big 12 will go so far as to assure a loss for Nebraska. If it's an even playing field, I think nebraska wins this one.
5. UCONN +2 1/2 @South Florida: Uconn has a chance to go to a BCS game if they win. They might want to just go ahead and lose, because the uproar from the media at the prospect of them playing in a BCS game will end up bringing them more ridicule than anything else. Screw the media though. We all know the Big East sucks...give it a rest. UConn is coming off 4 straight wins after a shutout loss to Louisville that had everyone assuming Uconn was done. They relish the underdog role, while USF, who doesn't have a whole lot to play for, strugggles in the favorite's role. The only offensive facet of wither one of these teams that's worth a shit is UConn's running game. Jordan Todman figures out ways to grind out yards, and he'll probably do it here as well. Otherwise, the defenses have the big edge in every other facet. I'll take the points with UConn here as they try to make their first trip to the BCs under Edsall.
Others: Leaning toward SMU +9, in the CUSA title game at UCF. These two teams are pretty statistically similar and this game seems to feature an upset almost every year, much like the MAC title game, which held to form last night. Poor Huskies. Now they don't get to return to the Detroit ghetto in 3 weeks to play Florida International, and are stuck going somewhere like San Diego or Mobile. I can see why they are so distraught.....Nevada faces the ultimate letdown situation, having to travel all the way to Ruston, La to play La tech, who is normally a tough out at home. The spread also looks mysteriously low (8). Bad combination: Fishy line, terrible situation for the road favorite, live dog, 75%+ of the public on Nevada. Not sayin, I'm just sayin. I'll be on LT for the heck of it....Matt Barkley is back for USC, so they should be able to handle UCLA in a somewhat short line at the Rose Bowl(6). You all know what I think about UCLA, an it might be time to ponder the possibility that their defense might be as bad as their offense, a frightening proposition. If Kiffin loses this one, another plum job might come open Monday morning. Or maybe even early Sunday morning. Pat haden is like a Pavlovian dog waiting to fire that asshole. ....That's it....take care!!!
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Week 14 Musings (Weekday)
***Note: Forgot to post this when written up late Wednesday.
Thurs:
1. Arizona St +6 @ Arizona: I've been saying this for weeks, but ASU has been much better than their record indicates. They are really a well rounded squad. They play well defnsively and have some speed and playmakers, and they are balanced offensively, with a tiough runner in Cameron Marshall and a competent passing game. Arizona has had a decent year, but if you look closely at their results, after the Iowa win, which they were lucky to get, they haven't done much. Lost at home to Oegon St, beat cal by a point, lost at home to USC. Not much of a home field advantage. On a nuetral, I would actually give the edge to ASU, so I'll take the points here in an environment that has not proven to be all that difficult for visiting teams.
2. Miami(OH) +17 v Northern Illinois: This game has been a house of horrors for the favorite. A couple years ago, an undefeated Ball State team lost outright to Buffalo, and in previous years several strong MAC teams have been upset in this spot, NIU included in 2005 I believe. Miami is not a bad squad, and they have been much better offensively lately. NIU might have a penchant for locking up in this game..they've been almost too good lately and are due for the proverbial clunker.
More later.
Thurs:
1. Arizona St +6 @ Arizona: I've been saying this for weeks, but ASU has been much better than their record indicates. They are really a well rounded squad. They play well defnsively and have some speed and playmakers, and they are balanced offensively, with a tiough runner in Cameron Marshall and a competent passing game. Arizona has had a decent year, but if you look closely at their results, after the Iowa win, which they were lucky to get, they haven't done much. Lost at home to Oegon St, beat cal by a point, lost at home to USC. Not much of a home field advantage. On a nuetral, I would actually give the edge to ASU, so I'll take the points here in an environment that has not proven to be all that difficult for visiting teams.
2. Miami(OH) +17 v Northern Illinois: This game has been a house of horrors for the favorite. A couple years ago, an undefeated Ball State team lost outright to Buffalo, and in previous years several strong MAC teams have been upset in this spot, NIU included in 2005 I believe. Miami is not a bad squad, and they have been much better offensively lately. NIU might have a penchant for locking up in this game..they've been almost too good lately and are due for the proverbial clunker.
More later.
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