More Crappy Bowl Musings

So yesterday, I'm watching bowl games, and I'm trying to figure all this out. First off, it appears the theme of this bowl season might be that the starting QB for whatever team I bet on gets hurt. First we had Russell Wilson for NC St on Monday, which turned a no brainer cover into a sweatbox. Then yesterday, Nevada's Colin Kaepernick turns his ankle in the first quarter, rendering Nevada's biggest offensive weapon(his run/pass option ability) moot. While we're at it, one of the least explosive offenses in the country (Maryland) had 7 plays of 40 yards or more plus a kickoff return for a score, and ran roughshod over the 5th best rushing defense in the country. Then later, WMU's Tim Hiller landed on his shoulder or something apparently in the first quarter, leading to as pathetic an exhibition of duck throwing I've seen since the Craig Krenzel/Chad Hutchinson era for the Bears. The result: Rice, yes the same Rice that gave up 492 total yards to Army, was dominant on defense against a legitimately good offense. Whatever. At least Oregon woke up in the second half and brought some degree of order. Enough whining. We'll see what happens today, as I like Oregon St, but I figured I'd get the New Year's games out there so you can fade them, since these are the sides that will lose the turnover battle and almost certainly give up a defensive or ST score....

9. Georgia -7 1/2 v Michigan St: A severely public play, but sometimes the public is right. I've been burned before fading the Big Ten on these early Florida New Year's Day games (Penn St v Tennessee, Wisconsin V Auburn in the game that really ignited my hatred for Tommy Tuberville), but I think this one is too obvious to pass up. Throughout the year, Michigan St has racked up a nice record by basically sneaking by teams it should beat. They have played 2 elite teams this year, Ohio St(and I'm being generous in calling them elite) and Penn St. They were dismantled in both games. Their MO is to run Javon Ringer at 3 yards a crack until his legs fall off(any interest, Jerry Angelo?) and only throw when absolutely necessary. As I pointed out in previous musings, they haven't really run truly effectively in any game this year, and they won't against Georgia's D either. Defensively, they don't stop the run or the pass with any regularity, so Moreno and Stafford should be able to operate pretty much unencumbered in what might be their swan song. If you match up the units to decipher who has the edge in what situation, i.e., UGA pass offense v MSU pass defense, MSU rush O v UGA rush D, etc, Goergia has a distinct advantage in every conceivable category. The only possible problems are turnovers, because MSU has been opportunistic, and penalties, because UGA has racked up a lot of personal fouls this year. Kind of a recipe for disaster given my previous experience this bowl season, but when a team has such a distinct advantage in actual scrimmage activity, they must be played at a TD. Buy it down if it's not too expensive.

10. Nebraska +2 1/2(buy to 3) v Clemson: Nebraska under Bo Pellini has had a middling season, but it was good enough to garner a January 1st bowl game, so the Huskers will be excited and looking to build for the future. Clemson, left for dead at midseason, also somehow found themselves here. Don't ask me how, because I have no idea. They've given Dabo Swinney the full time gig, which is obviously a collossal mistake, but whatever, do what you want. Taking a look at matchups in this game, it appears that these teams might be evenly matched in the passing games, but I'll submit that Nebraska should have the better of it. The Huskers under Joe Ganz are a solid passing squad, and I like their running game as well. Clemson is actually ranked 10th in the country in pass defense, but lets take a closer look. They have played only 2 teams all year with any semblance of a passing game, Maryland and Florida St,and neither is particularly good They lost both of those games. Nebraska is miles better than any passing game they've faced all year, and Clemson has not pressured the QB at all this year(106th in sacks) so Ganz will be allowed to be comfortable in the pocket. In addition, Clemson is ranked 111th in 3dr down conversions while Nebraska is 32nd against, and that's in the Big 12 with the likes of Mizzou, Oklahoma and Texas Tech on their schedule. I see an advantage for Nebraska on both sides of the ball in this one, and we're getting points. Looks to me like the wrong team is favored here.

Others: In the Outback, I'm pretty much torn. A Big Ten team favored over an SEC team? (Iowa -3 1/2 v South Carolina). Statistically it makes sense, because South Carolina will not be able to run it at all on Iowa and their passing game has been a steady series of fuck ups all year. Spurrier also stands to be spending a lot of time looking disapprovingly at the goings on on the field, as per usual lately. However, South Carolina does sport a good defense, against a pedestrian Iowa outfit. If Shonn Green can't run effectively, they are in trouble, but he hasn't failed to run for 100 all year, so he probably won't start now. As I have mentioned before, Spurrier is without a doubt the most overrated coach in the country, so I think Iowa will have the advantage there as well with Ferentz. The Big Ten is not used to being a favorite both on the board and with the public on these games, so I refuse to lay more than a FG, but I have no interest in backing Spurrier here either. I guess I might buy it down to 3 and play Iowa. Still undecided though......The Rose Bowl is another tough one. Statistically, these teams are dead even. However, I can't get that stretch of time in midseason where Penn St looked pedestrian on offense out of my mind. I really can envision this USC defense dominating Penn St. It really all comes down to if Penn St's offense can sack up and move the ball against the best defense in the country in their element. The stats say that they can, but my recollection of the Big Ten's recent performances in this game says they can't. That's not really fair, though. I'm afraid that USC will get all the breaks, just like they did last year against Illinois. The spread has fallen, almost begging you to lay with USC, so I'll wait to see if it goes back up, because when undecided, I'll take the significant points, especially in what shapes up to be a defensive game between two evenly matched teams. Screw my history based fears!!!.....When I first looked at Cincy/VT, I was solidly in Cincy's corner, but now this one looks like a tossup as well. Neither team will be able to do much of anything offensively against the other. Cincy has a pretty good passing attack, but VT will be able to pressure their QBs. Neither team is likely to be able to run it much if at all, so I think this one will come down to intangibles, which VT has a distinct edge in (penalties, turnovers, FG kicking). Plus they are getting points, have been here before and are looking to made amends from last year. Cincy might be a little wide eyed.....Also leaning toward Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl. I liken this to an uninformed baseball argument I was privy to a few years ago. Two guys in my office were arguing about the Cubs and Cardinals. The Cub fan contended that the Cubs would beat the Cardinals because they had a better pitching staff than the Cardinals did. Well guess what genius... if your horrific offense can't score any runs against any pitching staff, and the Cardinals have the best offense in the league, it doesn't really matter how the staffs match up now does it? It all depends on the advantages relative to the units, right? That's the case here. Obviously, Texas Tech has a much much better offense than Ole Miss, but Ole Miss's defense is very good. I would submit that the distance between the TT offense and the Ole Miss defense is shorter than what we would see vice versa. Also, this line has fallen to 4, and remains steady, as if Vegas is begging people to lay with TT, which they are doing in droves. Even though I would think I should be getting at least a TD here, I'll be taking the points.....Kentucky/ECU is a shit game, no real opinion there......The Sugar Bowl got more interesting with the suspension of Andre Smith the big OT for the Tide. As always, I am skeptical of Bama as a big favorite, and Utah has a good enough D to keep them in the game so I'll take the 10.....That's it for now, I'll have MNC thoughts as well as Fiesta later on.....