More Bowl Musings (Part 3)

After the second go-around, we are stuck at 3-3 for the season on the numbereds, right up there with a coin flip. A special thanks goes out to Dustin Sherer of Wisconsin for the genius move of throwing a backward pass off a FSU defender's hand, resulting in a 75 yard defensive score to get the Champs Sports Bowl of to an appropriate start. Anyway, NC State covered despite losing Russell Wilson on the last play of the first half.(With NC State leading 17-6) If Wilson doesn't get hurt, the Pack wins that game outright. As a result they didn't, of course helped along by a fake FG for a TD, a blocked punt and 2 personal foul penalties that kept scoring drives alive late for Rutgers. A win is a win though. (Provided that you didn't wait until 10 minutes before kickoff to play the game, and then failed to buy the spread back to 6 1/2 or 7.) The following games are over the next couple days, just short of New Year's Day. I'll have those plays tomorrow night.

7. Nevada -2 1/2 v Maryland: Sorry for the lateness here. I didn't realize that this was a day game, but it is. This is somewhat of a fade of Maryland, because there is no way that they have any desire at all to be in Boise over the holidays. If there is ever a team that doesn't need some sort of lack of motivation away from home, it's Maryland, who routinely dials up their most sickly performances in games like this. The Terps are true cowards, a group of coward's cowards, if you will. They've already lost handily on the road as a DD favorite to MTSU early this year, and now they have to travel across the country to what I assume will be freezing cold to play in a game they want no part of against an opponent they can't get jacked to play. Oh, and by the way, said opponent is a bad matchup for them. Maryland relies heavily on their running game, and Nevada just happens to be ranked 4th in he country against the run. If Maryland is going to win this game, they will need to have Chris Turner throw for 350+, something he is not used to doing. Nevada also will likely have the better of Maryland in their own ground game, as they are ranked #1 in the country in rushing offense per carry. Maryland has been gashed at times this year. Unless Maryland has been heavily schooled on the art of "sacking up", I think we can expect a clunker performance here, and and happy trip back to Reno for the Wolf Pack with a coveted win over a BCS opponent under their belt.

8. Oregon St -2 1/2 v Pittsburgh: Get the spread under 3 while you still can, though it's pretty readily available. If it moves to 3, I'd buy it down, but that's just me. Wanny deserves some credit here. He's pretty much avoided any additional "AAAAAAAPPPPPP" moments since the opening upset loss to Bowling Green. However, he will be thoroughly outclassed in the coaching department by Mike Riley in this one. The spread has fallen because the Rodgers brothers are probably not going to play. James, the smallish wide receiver, has a broken collarbone, so he is out, but the jitterbug RB Jacquizz says he will play. Who knows, but even if those two don't play, I still like OSU here. Despite the perceived prowess of Pitt's running game, on a per carry basis, they are downright mediocre, and will struggle to convert 3rd downs on this Beaver defense. The Beavs also sport a big edge at QB, regardless if it's Moevao of Sean Canfield behind center. The Beavs also are coming off a shellacking when all the chips were on the table in their rivalry game with Oregon, so they will be looking for redemption. A small spread like this has me interested when the coaching, QB and motivation edges are all on the same side.

Others: The Holiday Bowl appears to me to be lined about right...Okie St and Oregon are very similar squads, but OSU is much more balanced with their ability to throw the ball. Oregon has a much better run defense than OSU though, so the chances of Oregon dominating with the run game are certainly there. Since it's a LaVette family play, and since I'm getting points (3 should be available) I'll be on Oregon, but I can certainly see why the oddsmakers and public are on OSU.....At first glance, Rice (-3)v Western Michigan looked like a gimme, what with Rice lining up in their home city against a MAC squad as a short favorite, but upon further reflection, Rice's defense is so terrible that I can't lay points with them. Despite an intense love affair with the Owls by the general public, this line has fallen to 2(and since gone back up to 3) WMU has the kind of offense to keep Rice's defense on the field all the live long day. WMU will have the edge in all facets of that matchup, whereas I don't think Rice will be able to run it effectively. Look for WMU's Jamarko Simmons to catch about 15 balls for maybe 225 yards. The same might be true with Rice's Jarrett Dillard, as the Owls will certainly get on the scoreboard, but I think Rice's inability to play any defense will ultimately cost them in this game......Minny/Kansas sits at KU -9. That's a tossup. If Eric Decker is healthy(which is a mystery) he will have all kinds of success with KU's secondary, but so will all of KU's receivers against the Goofers. The line looks about right. I might actually not even play this one. (Forget I said that, quickly.)Gun to head, I'd go with the dog, of course.....Everyone in the free world is on BC (-3 1/2) in their tilt with Vandy. I really see this one as a stalemate..neither offense is going to be able to move the ball on the other, and the game is in Nashville, so forgive me if I don't see BC as the obvious play here. Vandy actually does a good job of converting for TDs in the red zone, a stark contrast to BC, who often settles for FGs. IN a low scoring game, 3 1/2 is significant.....The AF/ Houston line continues to fluctuate between 3 1/2 and 4. These teams already played once this year so it's hard to pick out the motivational edge. At the outset I was anticipating a Houston play, since they have been putting up pinball machine type numbers recently, but their defense is so bad that It makes it hard. Consider that AF beat this team in September without even completing a pass. They've made some changes since then to upgrade the passing attack. Actually, there might be as much of a mismatch for Houston trying to stop AF when they throw it as there is for AF on D. Kind of a tossup, but I'll be taking the points. MWC is still a step above CUSA in my opinion as well.....LSU is getting 4, 4 1/2 in some circles in their game against LSU. The motivational edges are all there for LSU; underdog status against a perceived weaker program, some bad performances to make up for, etc. However, this is the mother of all coaching mismatches, so intangibles will go the way of GA Tech. Having said that, the public is so ingrained on Ga Tech in this one that the spread might go up to 4 1/2. If so, LSU is the value side. Both teams are relatively new to their roles as Dog/favorite here, and I think it will have an effect. Also, Ga Tech is terrible in the red zone, while LSU is pretty good, and there is a big advantage in the kicking game for LSU. There exists the possibility that G Tech will have several open possessions after long drives, and that is not conducive to covering a number. That's it for now. I'll be back soon for more on the Jan 1 games and beyond.