Week 3 Nonsense

***Note: Due to my mind being elsewhere, I forgot to paste this week's entry until late, but since this is for my own reference and nobody reads this blog, who cares?

6-9 last week makes the year total 8-18. After Saturday I pretty much decided that I would stop this charade, since I don't have anywhere near enough time required to actually be successful at doing this and even half assed, it takes up quite a bit of time. Also, I was out of town all week so I was planning on just sending an email telling you all that I'll be taking a hiatus for at least a couple weeks, but lo and behold, I have a few opinions on some of these games, so go ahead and get your fading hats on.

The one thing about last week, if we're looking for any kind of positive, was that I went from being woefully off and unquestionably on the wrong side on most of the games back to my regular lot in life of being mostly on the right side and getting violated. Clemson scored 45 points in the first half, then jerked their chickens for the duration of the second half for only 7, allowing BSU to get a late TD for the backdoor. Nevada's loss to USF was ridiculous, etc. I could get more into some of the others, but nobody cares. The point is, at least I made some progress, and the also rans were pretty clairvoyant. I really should have made Oregon St and UCLA musings because I really liked those. Whatever.

These are going to be rapid fire.

1. @Oklahoma St -23.5 v Louisiana-Lafayette: La La is and has been a decent squad, but I think they are in a tough situation here. They are coming off a nice win last week at Troy, while the Pokes are coming off an ugly loss at Arizona. I think that generally you'd see this spread somewhere in the 30's, like last year(-38) but due to what happened last week, the spread is somewhat manageable. Last week, even though they won, they were outgained by 200 ans gave up 588 yards against the poor man's version of what they are facing this week, and OSU laid 61 on them last year. OSU will be motivated to blow them out coming off the loss, a loss, by the way in which they racked up 636 yards. I think LaLa is in big trouble here.

2. @Ohio St -16.5 v Cal: Cal is just not a very good team. Hell, even Home Cal has sucked. We can only imagine what Road Cal will look like at 9AM their time, as this is a noon Eastern start. Cal QB Zach Maynard is flimsy at best, a weak armed little guy who is unlikely to be able to do much of anything in the Horseshoe. Cal isn't much defensively either. OSU will probably have this covered at half.

3. Army +3 v Northern Illinois: NIU's offense isn't very good, as they had about 100 total yards in week one against Iowa if you take out the long run by QB Jordan Lynch. Defensively, I'm skeptical about Northern as well, as Iowa's offense is putrid. Army is pretty decent at home, and they will play better than they've looked so far. I'll take the FG here...the world is on NIU as a road fave. NIU blew out Army in DeKalb last year(called by the Musings)so the Cadets will be ready this year. Not comfortable with NIU as a road fave without Chandler Harnish.

4. ULM +17 @Auburn: Obviously, ULM is coming off a big win over Arkansas while Auburn is 0-2, so this looks like a square pick. Knowing me, it probably is, but 17 is a lot here because I think ULM can score some points here, and Auburn simply isn't very good on offense. They got pretty much dominated by Mississippi St, and although ULM got lucky last week, you can't argue with a 550-377 yardage edge. I'll take the 17 here, and you might see some Auburn fans commit various forms of violent crimes soon afterward.

5. BC +3.5 @Northwestern: Fitzy can't cover spreads as a home favorite so it's an auto play. Also, looking at this one, BC can throw it a bit. Miami's implosion in Manhattan last week makes their loss to the Canes a bit dubious, but they racked up 500+ of offense in that game and NW always struggles to stop the pass. I'll bite.

6. Virginia +10 @Georgia Tech: When I look at this game, I see two teams that are pretty evenly matched. Virginia caught Tech in a good spot last year, and in the process held them to under 300 in total offense. Most of that defense and the same scheme returns. Georgia Tech is getting some consideration from people based on their performance in Blacksburg in week one, but I think this line is inflated. UVA has a pretty good squad, their performance against PSU last week notwithstanding. In their defense, they got penalized 10 times, lost 3 fumbles and muffed a punt and still won. so you have to give them credit for that.

7. Florida +3 @Tennessee: Ok, everybody needs to hold the phone on this Tennessee love. Yeah, they can throw the ball a bit, and they looked ok against a non-team in NcState, but now they are favored against Florida? Naw. Come on. Florida's defense is damn good...they will control the line of scrimmage, and UT is still coached by sad sack Derek Dooley. There is no way that guy is going to be sitting in his living room at midnight after the game loving life at 3-0.Good shit like that doesn't happen to Derek Dooley. Finding burning sacks of dog shit on his porch happens to Derek Dooley. A "kick me" sign taped to his back happens to Derek Dooley. Florida has dominated Tennessee for the last 10 years, and last week, their offense started to show signs of life, as Jeff Driskill went 13-16 for 162 and they ran it effectively against a defense much better than the one they'll see this week. Florida will win this game.

8. @Missouri -3.5 v Arizona St: Everybody was impressed with how Arizona St plastered Illinois last week, but Illinois is terrible, playing a couple of geeks at QB who Beckman apparently rounded up from the Undergrad Library on Friday night when all the cool kids were out drinking beer and doinking chicks. There isn't much to take from that. ASU will be facing a much tougher task this week, and will go on the road for the first rime. Generally when a new coach/new QB combo goes on the road for the first time, bad things happen, and Mizzou is in somewhat of a must win and have a revenge angle as ASU knocked them off last year in Tempe in overtime. We don't know much about ASU's defense, since they didn;t play a real QB last week, but they play one this week. The line has dropped from 6.5 to 3.5 based on last week's events. The Georgia game was closer than the final score indicated, as Mizou outgained the Dawgs. They're solid, ASU is walking into a tough spot to only get a FG(assuming the bought 1/2 point.)

9. Texas -9.5 @Ole Miss: Ole Miss is a lot worse than their record. They caught UTEP last week in a good spot, and then UTEP's top RB who had run for 150+ against Oklahoma the previous week unexpectedly didn't play. Ole Miss is weak on both sides of the ball, and Texas will be motivated playing an SEC school after hearing all summer from Texas A&M that they are stepping up to the better conference, Texas kids are going to like the SEC, blah blah. They'll be motivated to send a message against one of the SEC JV.

10. @Utah +3.5 v BYU: In this game, getting Utah as a home dog is in my opinion, a no brainer. The spread is where it is because Utah lost their starting QB for the year, but they were without him last year and Jon Hays took over and did a credible job. The same should happen this year. Also last year, Utah came into Provo as a 4 point dog and left with a 54-10 win. For whatever reason, I think Whittingham kind of has Bronco Mendenhall's number. Lots of value on Utah here because they lost to Utah St last week. I think they come back strong here and give BYU their best effort. Too bad the Holy War is no longer played in the last week of the year. It loses it's luster and flies under the radar a bit being played in September.

11. @UCLA -17 v Houston: I like UCLA. I think Mora is going to be a good hire, and I wouldn't be surprised if I'm on them a lot this year. In this case, they've proven that they can light up the scoreboard as they followed up their big performance against Rice with an a 650+ yard performance that has people in Nebraska wondering if Bo Pelini is as incompetent as he is insane. Now defenseless Houston comes in. They have always been a different team on the road, now we'll see the newest version of that phenomenon with an overmatched coaching staff and a pedestrian QB. They figured things out offensively last week, but they will be hard pressed to follow that up on the road against a competent AQ team. They also will be without two starters on their line. This one could be a bloodbath. UCLA should be able to name the score.

OTHERS: There are some others I'll be on, Navy +7, since I don't know that Penn State has proven they can win, South Alabama, since NC St shouldn't be favored by 31 against anyone, Wisconsin -13.5 v Utah State has ungodly value since USU is coming off a win against Utah and Wisconsin shit the bed in Corvalis. Who could have predicted that you'd only have to lay 13.5 in a game in Madison against a WAC team? Not me, and I'll bite even though Wisconsin can't run the ball. That's it. Fade away.

Week 2 Musings

What an absolute abortion that was. 2-9 for Week 1, and some of the games weren't even close...total laughers on the wrong side. I could go into it, but suffice it to say, I was on the wrong side on all of em except a couple, and one of the wins was probably the wrong side too(Boise). I nailed that Bama game though!!

So we start out in a hole, and I'll reserve thr right to eliminate Week 1 from the memory if I feel like it. Just kidding. Fade time.

I was watching the Pitt/Cincinnati game last night, and I came to a conclusion: When handicapping, a good idea might be to figure out which of the two teams you are looking at more closely resembles Pitt, then pick the other team. It was a comedy of errors, and coming into the game, I actually thought Pitt was the more logical play. My thought was that Pitt's loss to Youngstown State could be overlooked because they were breaking in new systems, and YSU is probably better than about 30 FBS programs, and is the favorite for the national title at that level. had YSU played Cincinnati, the same thing might have happened, or so thought. Like just abut every passing thought I've had about college football this year, that thought was WRONG. EHHHHHHHHH. To illustrate what Pitt is, let me give you an example: Every morning, I walk two miles as part of my rebirth as a healthy person. On my route, I pass the local junior high, which is now the Freshman campus for the High School. As I'm walking, it's normally the time that the buses are pulling in and dropping off the students. But a lot of the kids dont ride the bus. There is a flood of kids that habe their mommies drop them off. Many of these kids are 14 year old skinny jean wearing, emo fags with long hair brushed into their face who are too much of a pussy to get their asses on the bus because they'd probably get shoved into a garbage can. That's who Pitt is. A bunch of flaming, shrieking, Emo homosexuals who need their mommies to drive them to school.

Interesting week for the Big Ten, with a lot of significant games, many on the road. By my count, all but a couple have at least a decent chance of losing. Penn State is a dog, NW is a dog to Vandy, Nebraska, Illinois and Wisconsin all go on the road to face Pac10 squads, and we know how that's gone in past years. Purdue is at Notre Dame, Ohio St plays a good UCF squad, Michigan plays Air Force...even Indiana, who lost outright last year to North Texas on the road, is at UMass. Should be interesting.

On to week 2. It can't get any worse.




1. @Mississippi St -3 v Auburn: Last year MSU went into Auburn favored and lost outright when QB Chris Relf was stopped at the 1 on the last play of the game. In that game, MSU dominated, outgaining Auburn 531-381. Prior to that, an inferior MSU team gave Auburn all they could handle in Cam Newton's first SEC game, and it turned out to be one of the few times that Auburn was challenged in a year they won the MNC. In short, Dan Mullen has played Auburn very tough. Mississippi St has a better team than they had last year, with a lot of returning starters and a good complement of skill guys back. I also think that Tyler Russell might be an upgrade over the departed Relf. Auburn on the other hand is worse than they were last year, mostly due to the departure of OC Gus Malzahn, who kept them competitive with his scheme, and their top RB Michael Dyer, who they had to tell to leave because he apparently cannot function in society. Auburn is coming off a tough loss and has to go back on the road to face a team licking their chops for a shot at them. It raised a lot of eyebrows when this game came out with Auburn a dog, but I think it's with good reason. MSU should take out some frustration in this one.

2. Virginia -9.5 v Penn State: PSU gave up 550 yards and lost by DD at home to Ohio last week. Nothing against Ohio, who has a good team, but now they have to go on the road for the first time to face a good Virginia team. They are completely shorthanded, and out of their comfort zone I think they will be very hard pressed to get anything going offensively.Mc Gloin and company were borderline competent last week, but now that they face a real, BCS level D on the road, I think that competence will vanish. Virginia also has a good offense, with an experienced QB in Michael Rocco returning as well as some good backs in Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, etc. I think it is highly likely that Penn State plays with some emotion early, but as things start to turn, loses steam and then gets steamrolled.

3. Tulane +25 @Tulsa: I realize that a team's best improvement during a given season usually happens between week 1 and week 2, but Tulsa looked terrible last week, getting dominated by Iowa St after jumping out to an early lead. Their new QB Cody Green looked lost, and although they ran it decently, they never got any first downs when they needed them. They also lost their top receiver for the season in that game, so I'd be challenged to find a team that they should be more than a 3 TD favorite against. Now, historically, Tulane is as good a candidate as anyone, as hey have been a terrible ATS team, but they have some new energy in the program with a high octane guy who used to be a Saints assistant, so Tulane is probably going to give Tulsa a good shot. They return their QB, top RB, top 3 receivers and their top 5 tacklers on defense. They easily covered against Rutgers last week and converted 8/16 on third down against what should be a very good Rutgers defense. I think they can at least stay in Tulsa's neighborhood here, based on what Tulsa showed last week, and the apparent major downgrade that they're suffering through.

4. @UCONN +4 V NC State: Team Occupy returns to the gridiron after inconceivably having sand kicked in their face by sad sack Derek Dooley and his collection of apparently dangerous misfits. Now NC State goes on the road again, this time as a favorite, a role they cower from. UCONN didn't light the world on fire last week offensively against UMass, but they held them to 58 total yards for the game. Now they are playing a team that got embarrassed by Tennessee of all people. QB is Chandler Whitmer is an Illinois reject, so that tells you he's not as good as Nathan Scheelhaase, which can't be a good thing, but they have a good running back, and Whitmer looked ok last week, limited mistakes. UCONN is a traditionally good home dog (14-5 in their last 19), while we all know that NC State can't cover a spread as a favorite on the road (3-12 since '02, O'Brien 0-4). It's hard to go against those trends.

5. @Clemson -27.5 v Ball State. Ball State looked good last week, churning out 590 yards at home against Eastern Michigan, but Schumann Stadium in Muncie, is a hell of a long way from Death Valley, and Clemson is coming off a nice win against Auburn in which their offense moved the ball up and down the field all day. last year Ball State had 2 road "cash money" road games, USF and Oklahoma. They lost by a combined 99-13. I think it is completely likely that Clemson puts up 50 in this one, which means Ball State will have to score better than 21 to cover. I think it's unlikely, and we might see more like 58 or 60 from Clemson. This one should be a laugher.

6. Michigan State -19 @Central Michigan. MSU has to go on the road in this one, but typically, games like this aren't really road games, as most of the locals root for the bigger school anyway, plus it's not a stretch for the Spartan fans to get in their cars and make the 2 hour drive up to Mount Pleasant. (Nice name for a town). MSU has got a wrecking crew for a defense. Last year, these two teams played each other and MSU held CMU to a grand total of 112 yards in a 45-7 blowout. I was very impressed by MSU against Boise, as the only way Boise avoided being blown out was a couple lucky breaks on tipped interceptions. I think they will click in the passing game this week and make short work of a squad that is 5-16 overall against the spread since Dan Enos came aboard as head coach.

7. @UMass +14 v Indiana: I think you probably noticed that I mentioned that UMass was held to 55 total yards last week against UConn. So how can I put my money at risk with these clowns? Because they are playing Indiana. This is a team that lost outright to North Texas last year, and got dominated in the process. You could line up a bunch of folding chairs against IU and they shouldn't be favored by more than two TDs. They would have lost to Indiana St last week in Bloomington if not for a couple official calls that even IU propaganda machine the Indy Star found egregious. UMass returns 8 starters from a defense that gave up only 350 yards per game in the Colonial last year, a conference in which IU would be hard pressed to finish .500. Indiana, at least this current iteration under the overmatched Kevin Wilson, cannot be favored against any functioning team by 14 points on the road, even if it's in front of 5,000 at the Patriots stadium.

8. @Texas A&M +1 v Florida. This is the first game of the year for Texas A&M, so there's a bit of an unknown with them since they have a new coach and a new QB, but I still think they have enough to get past this Florida team. People are making the mistake of comparing Florida to what they've done in the past. Take those Florida teams out of your previous recollections, because this team is nothing like them. Offensively, they are atrocious. They can't complete a forward pass, their offensive line doesn't move anyone off the ball, and they are learning a new scheme after 1 year in the Charlie Weis offense. Florida's defense is good, but they have built their reputation playing shitty offenses. Even with a new QB, there is enough there to assume that A&M will move the ball. Sumlin's track record is proven, and they have Ryan Swope and Christine Michael among their skill people returnees. Also, their offensive line is among the most experienced and best in the country, with 5 starters back from a team that ran it at 5.5 ypc. I think A&M will do the job here.

9. @Nevada pk v USF: I've never been much of a believer in the Skip Holtz hype. Everybody loves him, and I probably should too since he's Lou Holtz's kid, but I've never been that impressed with him, and nobody should be based on his track record so far with USF. They went 5-7 last year including 1-6 in the BE, which is inconceivable if you believe the reports of how much talent he's got. BJ Daniels comes back at QB, but all he's done since he's been there is find ways to lose. Now they travel across the country to play a Nevada team that looked very good last week and is typically a bear at home. USF usually plays good defense, but this Nevada running game is unique and Cody Fajardo looks like the next great dual threat QB, following in the footsteps of Colin Kaepernick. Nevada's Achilles heel over the years has been pass defense, but USF is certainly not going to beat you that way. Very tough task for USF to go out to Reno and pull this one off.

10. @Wyoming: Speaking of tough tasks, how about asking Toledo to go to Arizona, get completely shredded for 4 quarters (600+ yards) yet find yourself in OT, lose, come home, then go right back out to Laramie at the highest altitude in the country and have to basically win outright to cover. All this under a brand new age 33 coach? Wyoming looked ok last week at Texas, easily covering while putting up some yards and points against what should be an elite defense. Toledo gave up 624 yards last week to Arizona, I still can;t tell how in the world they managed to stay in that game since they only put up 358. It's not like this is anything new for Toledo however, as they accomplished that feat 3 times last year too. Wyoming has a very good QB in Brett Smith who should be able to exploit that defense, and defensively, they competed well with Texas. Like I said, I think it is a tall order to expect Toledo to win this one in this spot.

11. Georgia -2 @Missouri: When I first looked at this one, I thought I would be leaning to Missouri, but after looking closely, I think Georgia is the play. There's no doubt that Georgia's talent level is higher than Missouri's, the challenge for Georgia is to overcome the emotion of a raucous crowd in what's being hailed as the most important home game in their history as they begin their foray into the SEC. However, Georgia is no joke. They return just about everyone from a defense that gave up only 277 yards per game last year and ended up 6th in the country in ypp and 4th against the pass. Granted, the Missouri offense is different from what hey normally face in the SEC, but Mizzou's offensive line will be starting 4 new guys, and Georgia has arguably the best DL in the country. Offensively, Aaron Murray is very solid at QB, and they have developed some nice skill guys as well. I think this will be a good game, but in the end, talent wins out. I don't expect Mizzou to waltz into their first game in the SEC against a legit contender and have it go well.

12. Vandy -3 @Northwestern: About half the shops have this at 3, half have it at 3.5. I got it at 3, some I'm going with that. Taking Vandy as a road fave is a risk, but this isn't your father's Vandy squad. They went toe to toe with South Carolina last week and should have come away with a W against one of the better teams in the country, and certainly one of the better defenses. Major class relief here as now they face the Cats who are coming off getting completely torched by Syracuse. to the tune of 596 yards. They scored 42 points despite only gaining only 337 yards, a total luckbox effort that was keyed a couple crazy turnovers. They had to bench Kain Colter because they couldn't get any first downs against Syracuse. Now they are facing a very legit and fast Vandy squad that is significantly better than Syracuse on defense. I think NW will struggle to score on the 'Dores, and their defense isn't strong enough to carry them, as the past 2 years of results have shown us. I expect Vandy to win rather easily assuming no craziness.

13. Louisiana Tech -3 @Houston: Houston appears to be totally fucked, as they were beaten soundly as a 36 point favorite by Texas St in their first ever FBS game. It was no fluke...Texas St outgained them 444-326 (326!!! Case Kennum would have had that in the first 8 minutes.), and ran it for 250 yards. It's obvious that new coach Tony Levine is overmatched, especially since there's no Case Keenum and or any of the 4 top receivers from last year. They already fired their OC!!! It's safe to say that their situation, at least for now is a train wreck. LT is a legit squad and a favorite of the musings last year. They should be able to do all that Texas St did and more. Returning QB, all skill guys and most of the defense from a team that almost knocked off TCU in a bowl last year. The only thing keeping this spread from being DD is that Case Keenum used to play here.

14. @Arizona St -4 v Illinois: Illinois' offense is fucking atrocious. It's unwatchable. They are still emplying the "offense in a phone booth" Mentality. They went downfield exactly once last week, and it was a 64 yard TD in which the receiver was not covered, which is nothing new in college football. In fact, people streaking downfield uncovered is downright common. Why teams refuse to go downfield and take advantage of this phenomenon is beyond me. Nathan Scheelhaase is questionable for this game because of a bum ankle, but even if he plays, they won;t move the ball unless they are a completely different offense that showed up against Western Michigan. Keep in mind that WMU was the worst D in the MAC last year. Illinois gained 248 yards on them, 64 on one play. Once Schhelhaase went out, they gained 6 yards in the next 25 plays. Their top RB rushed for 2 yards on 11 carries. This against the worst D in the MAC. Hell, if Scheelhaase doesn't play they might not get a first down, I don't care who they're playing. ASU is no great shakes, but Todd Graham knows what he's doing and I assume he'll be able to put up a couple scores. That's all he'll need. I've been watching Illinois football for a long time. We don;t go out west at night on ESPN and win. I doesn't happen. If it does this time, well, then I'm a monkey's uncle.

15. Okie St -10 @ Arizona. 11-1 in their last 12 as a road favorite. Dick Rod can't play D. Okie St will throw on them like crazy, and run it. End of story.


Others: Iowa was terrible last week against Northern, completing 21 passes for an anemic 129 yards. If you are going to play offense like that, you should be shot, plain and simple. They deserve to lose every game they play with that nonsense. It makes me really want to fade them, but they are so good at home and they are laying a short number, so the value is limited. having said that, I expect Iowa St to go in there and win, so I'll be on the +4......I'm tempted to Take Purdue (+14) over ND because I'm still not convinced that they have what it takes to be good. They remain extremely vulnerable against the pass, and although PU are not experts at the forward pass, they can throw it enough to provide a test. They are also very good in the trenches, so they wont get run over like Navy did. Coming off the long trip to Ireland, I'll take the 2 scores....I also like Oregon St (+7) against Wisconsin. I'm not sold on their offense, as Danny O'Brien will have to go on the road here, and Monte Ball couldn't run it last week against UNI. Wisconsin blew out OSU last year, but Ball didn't run it on them either, so they might be able to effectively stop the Badger ground game. I'm not convinced that O'Brien can sack up and win one for them if that happens, especially since OSU should be much improved on offense with all their skill guys returning......I think Bob Davie's New Mexico squad(+38) will keep it somewhat respectable against Texas. There's a little talent there....I have a hunch that Jim Mora will have UCLA ready for Nebraska, especially if Burkhead can't go. I have a sneaky feeling that he was a great hire for UCLA(+6), their offense looked very good last week, and Nebraska has a tendency to get torched from time to time.....Probably going to drop some on Duke +15, as Stanford looked a lot like Iowa on offense last week, and Duke is in their comfort zone as a road dog.

That's it, take care!!!!

Week 1 Musings

I went 2-9. No need to post the slop on here. A picked a bunch of games that weren't even close. Worst week ever.

Preseason Musings 2012

Ok fellas, so here we go again, another College Football season. It remains my favorite sport to watch, but sadly, it's becoming less so, mostly because it's being ruined before our eyes. You all have heard me rail against the idea of a playoff, especially a sizable one. Admittedly, I can live with a 4 team playoff, which apparently will become a reality in a couple years, but there's no doubt that conference realignment, the rash of idiotic uniforms, constant scandals and the overall changing of the landscape have lessened my vigor for the sport. That doesn't mean it's subdued my passion for betting on it though. Last year was a bit of a bounceback, especially the last few weeks, where the Musings hit at a 66% clip. For the year, they went 97-83 (.539). It was a money maker. Typically, in this space, I'll give you some teams to look out for, both positively and negatively, who might exceed or fall short of expectations. I'll also occasionally throw in some random thoughts and trends in there. Here it goes for this year. Teams I like: 1. Washington State. Mike Leach made a living out of surprising people when he was at Texas Tech. A review of his record there is quite eye opening...prior to his time there, Texas Tech was an alterthought. Then he showed up and they reeled off 10 bowl games in a row. I think he can achieve similar things at Wazzou. First, he'll be playing in a weaker league than he did at TT. Second, it's been proven that you can win there, as they've been to two Rose Bowls in somewhat recent memory. Third, Pullman is an outpost very similar in remoteness to Lubbock. Not that remoteness helps you win, but the more similar the overall situation, the more likely for similar success I guess. Wazzou returns 2 solid QBs a good RB and an elite receiver in Marquess Wilson. They played much better D last year, and under Leach, I think a couple of upsets can be expected. They are picked by virtually everyone to come in last in their division in the PAC 12. I think they'll do better than that. 2. West Virginia: This team was way ahead of schedule last year. As you'll remember, after Bill Stewart was mercifully relieved of his duties after his Keystone Cops detective work on Dana Holgorsen. Holgorsen was then made the head coach and thrown into the fire. In their first year under in his offense, they rose up to win the Big East and earn a BCS bowl berth, where they mauled Clemson to set themselves up with some nice momentum for this year. Most would think that the move to a tougher conference would be cause for a step back, but I don't think that'll happen. The only road game that looks prohibitive is Oklahoma St, and Oklahoma and TCU have to come to Mogantown and deal with the flaming couches. Remember that this team rolled up 440 passing yards against LSU last year in what was an off day for QB Geno Smith. Holgorsen has been through this drill before in the Big 12, and it's not like this conference is known for it's defense. Expect Smith to put up monster numbers, as his top 3 receiving threats return, as does all of their rushing yards. 3. Florida State: Definite darkhorse candidate for the MNC because I don't think anybody is going to score on them. They were a suffocating defense last year, and they have most of the primary dudes back on that side of the ball...most importantly, an alarming defensive line that slaps around just about all of the offensive lines they come across, especially in the effeminate ACC. Throw in an experinced QB and some skill guys, and you have the clear favorite in the ACC. They only have 1 game in which they might not be a sizable favorite, @VT. If Jimbo finally gets his ass out of his ass, they might contend for the big one. Teams I don't like. 1. Notre Dame: First of all, just about everything Brian Kelly has done since he stumbled into South Bend has been an absolute abortion. His teams are 16-10, 8-5 at home. They've lost games in ways that only the most ultimate of losers lose. They've made some of the most comically boneheaded buffoonish plays anyone has seen in college football in the past 20 years. To top it off, Brian Kelly has now managed to bastardize about the only thing that's good about Notre Dame anymore, their steadfast tradition, by running his collection of walking turnovers out there in whatever flavor of the month alternate uniform suits him. This year, they're going to be wearing these abominations when they play Miami at Soldier Field: http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.484061511623400.127406.155703994459155&type=3. I shouldn't have to explain why doing this is wrong, but I can't help myself. Why do teams come up with these God-awful uniforms? Because the dumber they look, the more these brain dead idiotic 17 year olds like them, and a lot of schools need some type of gimmick to get kids to like them so they can improve recruiting. I kind of worked with Oregon, but I would contend that cheating and paying kids has affected their fortunes as much as the uniforms have. In Notre Dame's case, they've pretty much sucked by their own standards for the better part of almost 20 years. Despite that, they still pull in recruiting classes that are typically ranked among the top 10 or so in the country. Why? Because they are Notre Dame, that's why. Their tradition sets them apart from other programs. Their gold helmets, the golden dome, TD Jesus, etc. Similarly, Alabama has had the same uniform forever, but they win a game that matters every once in awhile, so they can avoid resorting to gimmicks. By caring about what their uniform looks like, Notre Dame has shitcanned what set them apart, and are now admitting they are no better than the Oregons, the Marylands, Oklahoma States, etc of the world. Now that you are wearing those stupid pajamas with the two toned helmet, you better start fucking winning, Kelly, you ignorant, corrupt, morally bankrupt shrieking pissant. With all that being said, why do I think they'll underacieve this year? Well, because the "Luck of the Irish" has apparently turned into "Here...have a bit of this turd sandwich." After about the 50th time you slap your forehead at some hideous turnover or blown coverage, you realize that these are the things that define Notre Dame football. This year, in addition to that albatross, I'm having a hard time finding any good players on their roster. Their schedule includes no chancers such as @USC, @Oklahoma, @Michigan St, Michigan, and probably Stanford. The rest of their schedule has no gimmes. Defensively, they've got 6 starters back, but lost 5 of their top 6 tacklers. Offensively, they don't have a QB that has proven he can walk, chew gum and breathe at the same time, let alone move the ball against some of the squads they're playing. Throw in the expectation of about 40 plays that will leave mouths agape at the sheer unfathomable idiocy of them, I'll be surprised if they win 7 games, stunned if they win 8. 2. Arkansas: I see that they are ranked 10th in some spots. Although I have been an ardent supporter of the Hogs in recent years, and more than once in the Preseason Musings, I am not bullish on them this year. No coach in th country, except perhaps Nick Saban, is more directly responsible for his teams success than Bobby Petrino has been for Arkansas. His ability to bitch slap opposing coaches both in preperation schemes and in game adjustments made Arkansas the team its been the past few years. Don't get me wrong, I like their offense, especially the skill guys like Tyler Wilson and the sufficiently healed Knile Davis, but I am leery of the effect that not having Petrino on board will have. Had they just used a cardboard cut out of Petrino as the interim head coach, it couldn't have been any worse than bringing in that chowderhead John L. Smith. He will have a negative effect on this team vitually every time he opens his mouth. I peg Arkansas as being a squad ripe for an upset, virtually every game they play. 3. Illinois: The Illini are getting some props as a team that could possibly sneak into contention in the Big Ten Leaders division. Well, shit, I hope so, since there's only 4 teams eligible for the honor and two of them are Indiana and Purdue. They return a healthy amount of solid contributers from a defense that was ranked 6th in the country in Total Defense last year. Sounds good, right? Sure, except they played offense as badly as any team in the country in the last 6 games last year. Now Tim Beckman enters the picture. I refuse to criticize the hire, since it's likely that nobody worth a shit wanted that job, but I'm afraid that Tim Beckman might be the best candidate we have to take over as the new Village Idiot of CFB coaches. His meathead quotient appears to be pretty impressive, judging by his press conferences and other media appearances. Illinois's schedule has road games with Arizona St, Michigan, Ohio St, Wisconsin and a Northwestern team that they almost never beat in Evanston. They also, as usual, draw the best Non BCS teams they could find in the Non-con...Western Michigan, the class of the MAC, and Louisiana Tech, who will easily win the WAC. Neither will be an easy game. They also hitch their wagon to a running QB who is not powerful, fast or elusive. If they play the "offense in a phone booth" again this year, where they complete 14 passes for 76 yards, it's going to be a long year. And...in a class all their own...I give you Penn State. I'm not going to bore you with too much of a dissertation on how much I now despise this program, or on how the NCAA blew it by allowing them to continue to compete, bu I've got to say a couple things. First, they got off easy. Why do I say that? Because there is no way that program should have avoided the death penalty. If they didn't give it to Penn State, who could they ever possibly give it to? Can it get any worse than a program perpetuating child rape? I suppose that Sandusky could have chopped the kids' heads off Jeffrey Dahmer style, but in my book, it doesn't get any worse than what we saw. The program was complicit because the leader of the program knew about everything and decided to look the other way. Ultimately, it was decided that football was too important of an entity at Penn St. to allow it to be derailed, even if it meant that child abuse would go on unfettered. Even now, after the Freeh report, most affiliated with Penn State are still lost. Fans feel anger for being punished at all. They are so brainwashed to love all things Penn State football, that they were blind to what happened..they simply can't believe that Joe Paterno could be to blame for all this stuff. This culture led to the environment that allowed all these atrocities to take place. If there was no Penn State football, none of this would have happened, because Jerry Sandusky would not have had the program to lure these kids. Without PSU football, he's just a creepy dude in a track suit with no ability to provide anything for these kids, and they would have ignored him. That's why the program should have been shut down. You had to burn it to the ground to establish a true end of the sick culture that allowed the Sandusky ordeal. How the Big Ten continues to associate themselves with this program is beyond me. Continued association with Penn State is a de facto acceptance of what happened. If I'm the AD at any other member school, there is no way in the world I want to be affiliated with that school. It's a stain on me. If they're in my conference, I'm supposed to look at them as a partner, an equal in competition. How can anyone look at Penn State as an equal? The fact that they haven't torn down that Lasch Building yet speaks volumes. Wouldn't you want that House of Horrors blown up immediately. I liken it to the Brown's Chicken murders in Palatine in 1993. 10 people were murdered there. Within 6 months, the building was bulldozed because nobody wanted to come within a country mile of that place. Why isn't there a similar stigma attached to the Lasch building. (By the way, "Lasch" is the local Toyota dealer in State College who contributed a lot of money to the program over the years. I'm sure he's loving the legacy he built, eh?) Shit, the Penn State players probably still shower under the very shower head that Sandusky did his business and they think nothing of it. I'd be nauseous if I was in the same area code with that building. As for on the field, they are going to stink. They stunk to high heaven on offense last year, and they've lost their two best skill guys. They took a transfer from Akron. The kid transferred from Akron because he couldn't get much consideration to play over there as a preferred walk on. Akron refused to give the kid a scholly, and PSU is taking him on scholarship? Wow. A couple random thoughts: From the early 90's until 2003, Temple played in the Big East. The spent the most part of theiur tenure there getting humiliated by the likes of Virginia Tech and Miami, back when those schools tolerated being in that conference. It got so bad for Temple that the Big East threw them out of the conference in 2004. Fast forward a few years and guess who the Big East needs to make up a semblance of a football conference? Temple. Are they better now? No. They just got to beat up on some MAC teams for a few years. Whatever. Just more proof that idiots are everywhere....I have a hunch that Jim Mora Jr. is going to be a good hire for UCLA. I might look dumb in a couple years when he gets fired after their latest 50-0 cornholing by USC, but I think he's got the right idea over there..... Some trends: UNLV is now 1-14 in their last 15 as a road dog. Actually, if you take away their games as a home dog, which is the only situation in which they are even adequate, they are 23-70 overall ATS in their last 93. That's 8 years. Over the last 10 years, Boise is 74-50 ATS overall, but they were 0-6 ATS at home last year, believe it or not. You might see a bounce back in that role this year, because they are traditionally great at home. (33-16 prior to last year) NC State is 7-0 on nuetral fields since '02. They are also 16-33 as a favorite, and 36-21 as a dog. The underdog is 34-15 in the last 49 NC State road games. Duke in the last 10 years: 18-27 as a Home dog, 34-18 as a road dog. Miami(FL) is 19-37 as a home favorite. Apparently, 468 people in the stands 40 miles from campus isn't all that intimidating, not that they'll be favored in many games this year. Oklahoma St is 11-1 the past 3 years as a road favorite. They are also 30-16 ATS in conference over the past 6 years. Good bet, them Pokes. Northwestern is 6-18 in their last 24 as a home favorite(all under Fitzgerald) Boston College is 20-9 as a road dog, but 9-15 as a road favorite. Texas A&M is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on nuetral fields. They are also 8-18 on the road the last 5 years. Not a good idea to play the Aggies away from Kyle Field. Navy is 24-9ATS in the last 10 years as a road dog, and is 16-9 on neutral sites. Central Michigan is 6-17 overall ATS since Dan Enos took over for Butch Jones. Remind me not to bet on those fucks. Wyoming is 12-3 as a road dog under Dave Christianson. Been very fortunate with them in that role in the musings over the past couple of years. That's it for now. I'm already working on the musings for week 1. Hopefully, we'll get off to a good start. I hope everyone is doing well and has a great year. Take Care!

More for Jan 2

Going to add another 2 musings here.....

15. Florida -2 v Ohio St: This line keeps getting steamed down, and the public is all over the short dog here. I understand people's repulsion for Florida...they can't score, their coaching staff is in a flux and led by a psychopath, but to me, there's value in these guys. These teams are pretty much mirror images of each other. Ohio St QB Braxton Miller has improved, but he is not the end all be all that people are hoping he'll be today. His improvement came against defenses like Purdue and Michigan...now he's going to be facing a super aggressive, athletic, lighting fast Florida defense, and he took enough sacks for OSU to be ranked 117th in the country in sacks allowed. I think they will struggle to crack 200 yards. The same might be true for Florida, but believe it or not, this OSU defense represents a drop in class for them. They've already played Alabama, LSU, South Carolina and Florida St, 4 of the top 10 defenses in the country. It's no wonder they haven't performed. Also, at the end of the day, I have a fast SEC team against a Big Ten team with a plodding offense, the game is being played in Florida, and by kickoff, it might be a pick 'em. If OSU comes out and handles them, more power to them and good for the Big 10, but I'll take my chances with the other side.

16. Okahoma St -4 v Stanford: I think Stanford will realize that Okie St's defense isn't as porous as most think, and I'd be very surprised if the 'Boys don't get at least a couple turnovers out of Luck. Also, we've seen what happens when Stanford plays a solid spread attack. I think Stanford has gotten fat on a weak schedule, and I'll be surprised if Okie St doesn't move it on them effectively. I'm not wild about the 4 points, but I think OSU wins this one, similar to how Oregon took them down.

Jan 2 Bowl Musings

The New Year's Eve games ended up being a split for the numbered musings, with Cincy winning and Virginia figuring out a way to get as out-coached as any team I have seen this year. From the opening kickoff, it was obvious that Virginia was better physically, but unfortunately for Virginia, the Auburn coaching staff knew it too, and decided to do something about it. Until late in the second hlaf, I don't think Auburn ran a "standard" play. They ran statue of liberty plays, misdirection on almost every snap, and onsides kicked after an early score to get the ball back. Virginia was the perfect foil for this strategy, falling hook line and sinker for every fake and then throwing in some horrendous tackling to boot. Oh well, you can't win em all. On to the NYD+1 bowls. 5-5 thus far.


11. Penn State +7.5 v Houston: This line has moved up to more than a score on the news that the feckless Robert Bolden will be startting in place of the concussed Matt McGloin, he of the shiner doled out by one of his receivers...no doubt tired of having to deal with passes thrown like a bullet at his ankles. No matter, I think Penn State has a great chance to win in this one. Houston is, in my opinion, a bit of a fraud. Yes, against patsies and various cupcakes they can throw the ball all over the yard, but they will be playing by far the most effective defense they've faced this year, and they'll be doing it without their star coach Kevin Sumlin. Houston has faced the 112th ranked schedule of opposing defenses, so Case Kennum will be facing some pressure, and when he's had o do that in the past, be blows things. On the other side, Houston has given up huge numbers in the running game to a lot of shitty running teams. I think Penn State will be able to run on them, and almost certainly will outgain their opponent on the ground, which usually results in outright wins for a dog in that role. We've seen what happens when Houston plays an adequate defense, and this one is more than adequate. I like the Nits outright here.

12. South Carolina -2.5 v Nebraska: To me, this looks like a one dimensional offense that can't pass going up against legit SEC defense with mutant playmakers . South Carolina actually has had a little difficulty against power running teams, but they know that nebraska can't throw it, and as a result, I think they'll be properly prepared and will force a lot of punts, not to mention their penchant for scoring on defense. On the flip side, South carolina is no great shakes on offense either, but Connor Shaw can run it, and they have the best receiver on the field as well. Also, Nebraska's defense is by no means anything to write home about. Nenraska is going to adapt to playing an SEC team as a member of the Big Ten about as well as they did in their first Big Ten road tilt (at Wisconsin). That did not go well. I don't necessarily think the Cocks have the offense to run away adn hide in this one, but they are adequate enough to win this onecomfortably.

13. Georgia -3 v Michigan State: On paper, MSU looks like it might be the better team, but you have to be able to take all things into consideration here, and there's just no way I can see MSU trotting down there to Florida and knocking off a talented SEC team near their own backyard. Georgia's defense is fast and physical and I have never been a fan of MSU QB Kirk Cousins. Of course, MSU's defense has been among the nation's best all year, but I think UGA will have enough offense to take this one. We've seen this song and dance before.

14. Wilsonsin +6 v Oregon: Here's another one on paper that worries you, especially since I kind of expect Wisconsin to have all kinds of trouble finding those little scatbacks for Oregon, but Wisconsin is highly efficient on offense, and I think they'll score on Oregon. Bret Bielema has never been the type to get blown out, and I think the Badgers will show up and play their guts out.

That's it for now, though I am close to making plays on the other two games as well tomorrow. If any are added, they'll be added early.