Week 3 Nonsense

***Note: Due to my mind being elsewhere, I forgot to paste this week's entry until late, but since this is for my own reference and nobody reads this blog, who cares?

6-9 last week makes the year total 8-18. After Saturday I pretty much decided that I would stop this charade, since I don't have anywhere near enough time required to actually be successful at doing this and even half assed, it takes up quite a bit of time. Also, I was out of town all week so I was planning on just sending an email telling you all that I'll be taking a hiatus for at least a couple weeks, but lo and behold, I have a few opinions on some of these games, so go ahead and get your fading hats on.

The one thing about last week, if we're looking for any kind of positive, was that I went from being woefully off and unquestionably on the wrong side on most of the games back to my regular lot in life of being mostly on the right side and getting violated. Clemson scored 45 points in the first half, then jerked their chickens for the duration of the second half for only 7, allowing BSU to get a late TD for the backdoor. Nevada's loss to USF was ridiculous, etc. I could get more into some of the others, but nobody cares. The point is, at least I made some progress, and the also rans were pretty clairvoyant. I really should have made Oregon St and UCLA musings because I really liked those. Whatever.

These are going to be rapid fire.

1. @Oklahoma St -23.5 v Louisiana-Lafayette: La La is and has been a decent squad, but I think they are in a tough situation here. They are coming off a nice win last week at Troy, while the Pokes are coming off an ugly loss at Arizona. I think that generally you'd see this spread somewhere in the 30's, like last year(-38) but due to what happened last week, the spread is somewhat manageable. Last week, even though they won, they were outgained by 200 ans gave up 588 yards against the poor man's version of what they are facing this week, and OSU laid 61 on them last year. OSU will be motivated to blow them out coming off the loss, a loss, by the way in which they racked up 636 yards. I think LaLa is in big trouble here.

2. @Ohio St -16.5 v Cal: Cal is just not a very good team. Hell, even Home Cal has sucked. We can only imagine what Road Cal will look like at 9AM their time, as this is a noon Eastern start. Cal QB Zach Maynard is flimsy at best, a weak armed little guy who is unlikely to be able to do much of anything in the Horseshoe. Cal isn't much defensively either. OSU will probably have this covered at half.

3. Army +3 v Northern Illinois: NIU's offense isn't very good, as they had about 100 total yards in week one against Iowa if you take out the long run by QB Jordan Lynch. Defensively, I'm skeptical about Northern as well, as Iowa's offense is putrid. Army is pretty decent at home, and they will play better than they've looked so far. I'll take the FG here...the world is on NIU as a road fave. NIU blew out Army in DeKalb last year(called by the Musings)so the Cadets will be ready this year. Not comfortable with NIU as a road fave without Chandler Harnish.

4. ULM +17 @Auburn: Obviously, ULM is coming off a big win over Arkansas while Auburn is 0-2, so this looks like a square pick. Knowing me, it probably is, but 17 is a lot here because I think ULM can score some points here, and Auburn simply isn't very good on offense. They got pretty much dominated by Mississippi St, and although ULM got lucky last week, you can't argue with a 550-377 yardage edge. I'll take the 17 here, and you might see some Auburn fans commit various forms of violent crimes soon afterward.

5. BC +3.5 @Northwestern: Fitzy can't cover spreads as a home favorite so it's an auto play. Also, looking at this one, BC can throw it a bit. Miami's implosion in Manhattan last week makes their loss to the Canes a bit dubious, but they racked up 500+ of offense in that game and NW always struggles to stop the pass. I'll bite.

6. Virginia +10 @Georgia Tech: When I look at this game, I see two teams that are pretty evenly matched. Virginia caught Tech in a good spot last year, and in the process held them to under 300 in total offense. Most of that defense and the same scheme returns. Georgia Tech is getting some consideration from people based on their performance in Blacksburg in week one, but I think this line is inflated. UVA has a pretty good squad, their performance against PSU last week notwithstanding. In their defense, they got penalized 10 times, lost 3 fumbles and muffed a punt and still won. so you have to give them credit for that.

7. Florida +3 @Tennessee: Ok, everybody needs to hold the phone on this Tennessee love. Yeah, they can throw the ball a bit, and they looked ok against a non-team in NcState, but now they are favored against Florida? Naw. Come on. Florida's defense is damn good...they will control the line of scrimmage, and UT is still coached by sad sack Derek Dooley. There is no way that guy is going to be sitting in his living room at midnight after the game loving life at 3-0.Good shit like that doesn't happen to Derek Dooley. Finding burning sacks of dog shit on his porch happens to Derek Dooley. A "kick me" sign taped to his back happens to Derek Dooley. Florida has dominated Tennessee for the last 10 years, and last week, their offense started to show signs of life, as Jeff Driskill went 13-16 for 162 and they ran it effectively against a defense much better than the one they'll see this week. Florida will win this game.

8. @Missouri -3.5 v Arizona St: Everybody was impressed with how Arizona St plastered Illinois last week, but Illinois is terrible, playing a couple of geeks at QB who Beckman apparently rounded up from the Undergrad Library on Friday night when all the cool kids were out drinking beer and doinking chicks. There isn't much to take from that. ASU will be facing a much tougher task this week, and will go on the road for the first rime. Generally when a new coach/new QB combo goes on the road for the first time, bad things happen, and Mizzou is in somewhat of a must win and have a revenge angle as ASU knocked them off last year in Tempe in overtime. We don't know much about ASU's defense, since they didn;t play a real QB last week, but they play one this week. The line has dropped from 6.5 to 3.5 based on last week's events. The Georgia game was closer than the final score indicated, as Mizou outgained the Dawgs. They're solid, ASU is walking into a tough spot to only get a FG(assuming the bought 1/2 point.)

9. Texas -9.5 @Ole Miss: Ole Miss is a lot worse than their record. They caught UTEP last week in a good spot, and then UTEP's top RB who had run for 150+ against Oklahoma the previous week unexpectedly didn't play. Ole Miss is weak on both sides of the ball, and Texas will be motivated playing an SEC school after hearing all summer from Texas A&M that they are stepping up to the better conference, Texas kids are going to like the SEC, blah blah. They'll be motivated to send a message against one of the SEC JV.

10. @Utah +3.5 v BYU: In this game, getting Utah as a home dog is in my opinion, a no brainer. The spread is where it is because Utah lost their starting QB for the year, but they were without him last year and Jon Hays took over and did a credible job. The same should happen this year. Also last year, Utah came into Provo as a 4 point dog and left with a 54-10 win. For whatever reason, I think Whittingham kind of has Bronco Mendenhall's number. Lots of value on Utah here because they lost to Utah St last week. I think they come back strong here and give BYU their best effort. Too bad the Holy War is no longer played in the last week of the year. It loses it's luster and flies under the radar a bit being played in September.

11. @UCLA -17 v Houston: I like UCLA. I think Mora is going to be a good hire, and I wouldn't be surprised if I'm on them a lot this year. In this case, they've proven that they can light up the scoreboard as they followed up their big performance against Rice with an a 650+ yard performance that has people in Nebraska wondering if Bo Pelini is as incompetent as he is insane. Now defenseless Houston comes in. They have always been a different team on the road, now we'll see the newest version of that phenomenon with an overmatched coaching staff and a pedestrian QB. They figured things out offensively last week, but they will be hard pressed to follow that up on the road against a competent AQ team. They also will be without two starters on their line. This one could be a bloodbath. UCLA should be able to name the score.

OTHERS: There are some others I'll be on, Navy +7, since I don't know that Penn State has proven they can win, South Alabama, since NC St shouldn't be favored by 31 against anyone, Wisconsin -13.5 v Utah State has ungodly value since USU is coming off a win against Utah and Wisconsin shit the bed in Corvalis. Who could have predicted that you'd only have to lay 13.5 in a game in Madison against a WAC team? Not me, and I'll bite even though Wisconsin can't run the ball. That's it. Fade away.