Saturday, September 8, 2012

Week 2 Musings

What an absolute abortion that was. 2-9 for Week 1, and some of the games weren't even close...total laughers on the wrong side. I could go into it, but suffice it to say, I was on the wrong side on all of em except a couple, and one of the wins was probably the wrong side too(Boise). I nailed that Bama game though!!

So we start out in a hole, and I'll reserve thr right to eliminate Week 1 from the memory if I feel like it. Just kidding. Fade time.

I was watching the Pitt/Cincinnati game last night, and I came to a conclusion: When handicapping, a good idea might be to figure out which of the two teams you are looking at more closely resembles Pitt, then pick the other team. It was a comedy of errors, and coming into the game, I actually thought Pitt was the more logical play. My thought was that Pitt's loss to Youngstown State could be overlooked because they were breaking in new systems, and YSU is probably better than about 30 FBS programs, and is the favorite for the national title at that level. had YSU played Cincinnati, the same thing might have happened, or so thought. Like just abut every passing thought I've had about college football this year, that thought was WRONG. EHHHHHHHHH. To illustrate what Pitt is, let me give you an example: Every morning, I walk two miles as part of my rebirth as a healthy person. On my route, I pass the local junior high, which is now the Freshman campus for the High School. As I'm walking, it's normally the time that the buses are pulling in and dropping off the students. But a lot of the kids dont ride the bus. There is a flood of kids that habe their mommies drop them off. Many of these kids are 14 year old skinny jean wearing, emo fags with long hair brushed into their face who are too much of a pussy to get their asses on the bus because they'd probably get shoved into a garbage can. That's who Pitt is. A bunch of flaming, shrieking, Emo homosexuals who need their mommies to drive them to school.

Interesting week for the Big Ten, with a lot of significant games, many on the road. By my count, all but a couple have at least a decent chance of losing. Penn State is a dog, NW is a dog to Vandy, Nebraska, Illinois and Wisconsin all go on the road to face Pac10 squads, and we know how that's gone in past years. Purdue is at Notre Dame, Ohio St plays a good UCF squad, Michigan plays Air Force...even Indiana, who lost outright last year to North Texas on the road, is at UMass. Should be interesting.

On to week 2. It can't get any worse.




1. @Mississippi St -3 v Auburn: Last year MSU went into Auburn favored and lost outright when QB Chris Relf was stopped at the 1 on the last play of the game. In that game, MSU dominated, outgaining Auburn 531-381. Prior to that, an inferior MSU team gave Auburn all they could handle in Cam Newton's first SEC game, and it turned out to be one of the few times that Auburn was challenged in a year they won the MNC. In short, Dan Mullen has played Auburn very tough. Mississippi St has a better team than they had last year, with a lot of returning starters and a good complement of skill guys back. I also think that Tyler Russell might be an upgrade over the departed Relf. Auburn on the other hand is worse than they were last year, mostly due to the departure of OC Gus Malzahn, who kept them competitive with his scheme, and their top RB Michael Dyer, who they had to tell to leave because he apparently cannot function in society. Auburn is coming off a tough loss and has to go back on the road to face a team licking their chops for a shot at them. It raised a lot of eyebrows when this game came out with Auburn a dog, but I think it's with good reason. MSU should take out some frustration in this one.

2. Virginia -9.5 v Penn State: PSU gave up 550 yards and lost by DD at home to Ohio last week. Nothing against Ohio, who has a good team, but now they have to go on the road for the first time to face a good Virginia team. They are completely shorthanded, and out of their comfort zone I think they will be very hard pressed to get anything going offensively.Mc Gloin and company were borderline competent last week, but now that they face a real, BCS level D on the road, I think that competence will vanish. Virginia also has a good offense, with an experienced QB in Michael Rocco returning as well as some good backs in Perry Jones, Kevin Parks, etc. I think it is highly likely that Penn State plays with some emotion early, but as things start to turn, loses steam and then gets steamrolled.

3. Tulane +25 @Tulsa: I realize that a team's best improvement during a given season usually happens between week 1 and week 2, but Tulsa looked terrible last week, getting dominated by Iowa St after jumping out to an early lead. Their new QB Cody Green looked lost, and although they ran it decently, they never got any first downs when they needed them. They also lost their top receiver for the season in that game, so I'd be challenged to find a team that they should be more than a 3 TD favorite against. Now, historically, Tulane is as good a candidate as anyone, as hey have been a terrible ATS team, but they have some new energy in the program with a high octane guy who used to be a Saints assistant, so Tulane is probably going to give Tulsa a good shot. They return their QB, top RB, top 3 receivers and their top 5 tacklers on defense. They easily covered against Rutgers last week and converted 8/16 on third down against what should be a very good Rutgers defense. I think they can at least stay in Tulsa's neighborhood here, based on what Tulsa showed last week, and the apparent major downgrade that they're suffering through.

4. @UCONN +4 V NC State: Team Occupy returns to the gridiron after inconceivably having sand kicked in their face by sad sack Derek Dooley and his collection of apparently dangerous misfits. Now NC State goes on the road again, this time as a favorite, a role they cower from. UCONN didn't light the world on fire last week offensively against UMass, but they held them to 58 total yards for the game. Now they are playing a team that got embarrassed by Tennessee of all people. QB is Chandler Whitmer is an Illinois reject, so that tells you he's not as good as Nathan Scheelhaase, which can't be a good thing, but they have a good running back, and Whitmer looked ok last week, limited mistakes. UCONN is a traditionally good home dog (14-5 in their last 19), while we all know that NC State can't cover a spread as a favorite on the road (3-12 since '02, O'Brien 0-4). It's hard to go against those trends.

5. @Clemson -27.5 v Ball State. Ball State looked good last week, churning out 590 yards at home against Eastern Michigan, but Schumann Stadium in Muncie, is a hell of a long way from Death Valley, and Clemson is coming off a nice win against Auburn in which their offense moved the ball up and down the field all day. last year Ball State had 2 road "cash money" road games, USF and Oklahoma. They lost by a combined 99-13. I think it is completely likely that Clemson puts up 50 in this one, which means Ball State will have to score better than 21 to cover. I think it's unlikely, and we might see more like 58 or 60 from Clemson. This one should be a laugher.

6. Michigan State -19 @Central Michigan. MSU has to go on the road in this one, but typically, games like this aren't really road games, as most of the locals root for the bigger school anyway, plus it's not a stretch for the Spartan fans to get in their cars and make the 2 hour drive up to Mount Pleasant. (Nice name for a town). MSU has got a wrecking crew for a defense. Last year, these two teams played each other and MSU held CMU to a grand total of 112 yards in a 45-7 blowout. I was very impressed by MSU against Boise, as the only way Boise avoided being blown out was a couple lucky breaks on tipped interceptions. I think they will click in the passing game this week and make short work of a squad that is 5-16 overall against the spread since Dan Enos came aboard as head coach.

7. @UMass +14 v Indiana: I think you probably noticed that I mentioned that UMass was held to 55 total yards last week against UConn. So how can I put my money at risk with these clowns? Because they are playing Indiana. This is a team that lost outright to North Texas last year, and got dominated in the process. You could line up a bunch of folding chairs against IU and they shouldn't be favored by more than two TDs. They would have lost to Indiana St last week in Bloomington if not for a couple official calls that even IU propaganda machine the Indy Star found egregious. UMass returns 8 starters from a defense that gave up only 350 yards per game in the Colonial last year, a conference in which IU would be hard pressed to finish .500. Indiana, at least this current iteration under the overmatched Kevin Wilson, cannot be favored against any functioning team by 14 points on the road, even if it's in front of 5,000 at the Patriots stadium.

8. @Texas A&M +1 v Florida. This is the first game of the year for Texas A&M, so there's a bit of an unknown with them since they have a new coach and a new QB, but I still think they have enough to get past this Florida team. People are making the mistake of comparing Florida to what they've done in the past. Take those Florida teams out of your previous recollections, because this team is nothing like them. Offensively, they are atrocious. They can't complete a forward pass, their offensive line doesn't move anyone off the ball, and they are learning a new scheme after 1 year in the Charlie Weis offense. Florida's defense is good, but they have built their reputation playing shitty offenses. Even with a new QB, there is enough there to assume that A&M will move the ball. Sumlin's track record is proven, and they have Ryan Swope and Christine Michael among their skill people returnees. Also, their offensive line is among the most experienced and best in the country, with 5 starters back from a team that ran it at 5.5 ypc. I think A&M will do the job here.

9. @Nevada pk v USF: I've never been much of a believer in the Skip Holtz hype. Everybody loves him, and I probably should too since he's Lou Holtz's kid, but I've never been that impressed with him, and nobody should be based on his track record so far with USF. They went 5-7 last year including 1-6 in the BE, which is inconceivable if you believe the reports of how much talent he's got. BJ Daniels comes back at QB, but all he's done since he's been there is find ways to lose. Now they travel across the country to play a Nevada team that looked very good last week and is typically a bear at home. USF usually plays good defense, but this Nevada running game is unique and Cody Fajardo looks like the next great dual threat QB, following in the footsteps of Colin Kaepernick. Nevada's Achilles heel over the years has been pass defense, but USF is certainly not going to beat you that way. Very tough task for USF to go out to Reno and pull this one off.

10. @Wyoming: Speaking of tough tasks, how about asking Toledo to go to Arizona, get completely shredded for 4 quarters (600+ yards) yet find yourself in OT, lose, come home, then go right back out to Laramie at the highest altitude in the country and have to basically win outright to cover. All this under a brand new age 33 coach? Wyoming looked ok last week at Texas, easily covering while putting up some yards and points against what should be an elite defense. Toledo gave up 624 yards last week to Arizona, I still can;t tell how in the world they managed to stay in that game since they only put up 358. It's not like this is anything new for Toledo however, as they accomplished that feat 3 times last year too. Wyoming has a very good QB in Brett Smith who should be able to exploit that defense, and defensively, they competed well with Texas. Like I said, I think it is a tall order to expect Toledo to win this one in this spot.

11. Georgia -2 @Missouri: When I first looked at this one, I thought I would be leaning to Missouri, but after looking closely, I think Georgia is the play. There's no doubt that Georgia's talent level is higher than Missouri's, the challenge for Georgia is to overcome the emotion of a raucous crowd in what's being hailed as the most important home game in their history as they begin their foray into the SEC. However, Georgia is no joke. They return just about everyone from a defense that gave up only 277 yards per game last year and ended up 6th in the country in ypp and 4th against the pass. Granted, the Missouri offense is different from what hey normally face in the SEC, but Mizzou's offensive line will be starting 4 new guys, and Georgia has arguably the best DL in the country. Offensively, Aaron Murray is very solid at QB, and they have developed some nice skill guys as well. I think this will be a good game, but in the end, talent wins out. I don't expect Mizzou to waltz into their first game in the SEC against a legit contender and have it go well.

12. Vandy -3 @Northwestern: About half the shops have this at 3, half have it at 3.5. I got it at 3, some I'm going with that. Taking Vandy as a road fave is a risk, but this isn't your father's Vandy squad. They went toe to toe with South Carolina last week and should have come away with a W against one of the better teams in the country, and certainly one of the better defenses. Major class relief here as now they face the Cats who are coming off getting completely torched by Syracuse. to the tune of 596 yards. They scored 42 points despite only gaining only 337 yards, a total luckbox effort that was keyed a couple crazy turnovers. They had to bench Kain Colter because they couldn't get any first downs against Syracuse. Now they are facing a very legit and fast Vandy squad that is significantly better than Syracuse on defense. I think NW will struggle to score on the 'Dores, and their defense isn't strong enough to carry them, as the past 2 years of results have shown us. I expect Vandy to win rather easily assuming no craziness.

13. Louisiana Tech -3 @Houston: Houston appears to be totally fucked, as they were beaten soundly as a 36 point favorite by Texas St in their first ever FBS game. It was no fluke...Texas St outgained them 444-326 (326!!! Case Kennum would have had that in the first 8 minutes.), and ran it for 250 yards. It's obvious that new coach Tony Levine is overmatched, especially since there's no Case Keenum and or any of the 4 top receivers from last year. They already fired their OC!!! It's safe to say that their situation, at least for now is a train wreck. LT is a legit squad and a favorite of the musings last year. They should be able to do all that Texas St did and more. Returning QB, all skill guys and most of the defense from a team that almost knocked off TCU in a bowl last year. The only thing keeping this spread from being DD is that Case Keenum used to play here.

14. @Arizona St -4 v Illinois: Illinois' offense is fucking atrocious. It's unwatchable. They are still emplying the "offense in a phone booth" Mentality. They went downfield exactly once last week, and it was a 64 yard TD in which the receiver was not covered, which is nothing new in college football. In fact, people streaking downfield uncovered is downright common. Why teams refuse to go downfield and take advantage of this phenomenon is beyond me. Nathan Scheelhaase is questionable for this game because of a bum ankle, but even if he plays, they won;t move the ball unless they are a completely different offense that showed up against Western Michigan. Keep in mind that WMU was the worst D in the MAC last year. Illinois gained 248 yards on them, 64 on one play. Once Schhelhaase went out, they gained 6 yards in the next 25 plays. Their top RB rushed for 2 yards on 11 carries. This against the worst D in the MAC. Hell, if Scheelhaase doesn't play they might not get a first down, I don't care who they're playing. ASU is no great shakes, but Todd Graham knows what he's doing and I assume he'll be able to put up a couple scores. That's all he'll need. I've been watching Illinois football for a long time. We don;t go out west at night on ESPN and win. I doesn't happen. If it does this time, well, then I'm a monkey's uncle.

15. Okie St -10 @ Arizona. 11-1 in their last 12 as a road favorite. Dick Rod can't play D. Okie St will throw on them like crazy, and run it. End of story.


Others: Iowa was terrible last week against Northern, completing 21 passes for an anemic 129 yards. If you are going to play offense like that, you should be shot, plain and simple. They deserve to lose every game they play with that nonsense. It makes me really want to fade them, but they are so good at home and they are laying a short number, so the value is limited. having said that, I expect Iowa St to go in there and win, so I'll be on the +4......I'm tempted to Take Purdue (+14) over ND because I'm still not convinced that they have what it takes to be good. They remain extremely vulnerable against the pass, and although PU are not experts at the forward pass, they can throw it enough to provide a test. They are also very good in the trenches, so they wont get run over like Navy did. Coming off the long trip to Ireland, I'll take the 2 scores....I also like Oregon St (+7) against Wisconsin. I'm not sold on their offense, as Danny O'Brien will have to go on the road here, and Monte Ball couldn't run it last week against UNI. Wisconsin blew out OSU last year, but Ball didn't run it on them either, so they might be able to effectively stop the Badger ground game. I'm not convinced that O'Brien can sack up and win one for them if that happens, especially since OSU should be much improved on offense with all their skill guys returning......I think Bob Davie's New Mexico squad(+38) will keep it somewhat respectable against Texas. There's a little talent there....I have a hunch that Jim Mora will have UCLA ready for Nebraska, especially if Burkhead can't go. I have a sneaky feeling that he was a great hire for UCLA(+6), their offense looked very good last week, and Nebraska has a tendency to get torched from time to time.....Probably going to drop some on Duke +15, as Stanford looked a lot like Iowa on offense last week, and Duke is in their comfort zone as a road dog.

That's it, take care!!!!










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