Week 1 Musings Continued..

8. UCONN -5 1/2 @Duke: Last year, UCONN was a complete joke in the passing game. So terrible, in fact, that they moved their returning starting QB(DJ Hernandez) to WR to "take advantage of his athleticism". OK. Translated, that means, "We have no freaking idea who our QB is going to be, but it certainly isn't going to be this guy." That's a good thing, because UCONN passed it at the level of the Riverdale Cardinals circa 1987, maybe not even that good, since the Hyun/Belvis combo was known to light it up on occasion in games against the Dolton Bears, or the Harvey Colts, or the South Holland Jets or the Cal City Drunks or whoever. One thing UCONN could do, however was run it down the thoughts of inferior defenses, especially when RB Donald Brown burst on the scene about halfway through the year. Look up "inferior defense" in the dictionary and you'll see a picture of the Duke Blue Devils. Any opportunity to wager against Duke when you don't have to give up double digits is one that should be jumped on, boxed up and stored in the boiler room next to the eraser cleaner. Since 2002 Duke is 2-10 ATS when they are getting 10 points or less. UCONN actually brought in a talented JUCO QB who has already won the job in camp. Their coach knows what he's doing given someone who can throw a football 15 yards on the fly. They should be much better on offense this year.

9. @Wisconsin -14 v Washington St: Every once in awhile, it becomes apparent that some coaches are in over their heads, or the new Village Idiot, a title previously held by Keith Gilbertson when he coached Washington, and later was handed to Larry Coker at Miami. Mostly, it's a guy that was a long time assistant that just proved be the wrong guy. That guy is now Bill Doba at Washington St. The Cougs have settled back into afterthought status in the PAc 10 after several years of relevance. He's a rah rah type..lots of fist pumping and other antics you'd expect from a guy named Doba. Not much susbstance, though, and he was obviously thoroughly outcoached several times last year as his team got steadily worse as the year went on. This year, his DC got hired by Idaho after Dennis Erickson bolted at the last possible minute, so Doba is pulling double duty as the DC as well, so he has a built in excuse for when his team stinks all year. His D is banged up, especially in the front 7, which isn't a good thing when you're facing Wisconsin, who has 4 OL starters back. Last year, they opened at Auburn(kudos for the schedules), and they got blown out from the word go, I don't see much difference in their opening spot this year. Their secondary is also weak, meaning Beckum, Swann and company should have no problem getting open. I'm not in love with Wisconsin, but this is a bad spot for WAZZOU in week 1.

10 @Michigan St -19 1/2 v UAB: We all know what happened to Michigan St last year. Things happened to them that sometimes happen to teams who are coached by numbskulls. They get in a tough situation, find themselves unprepared for it, reach down and grab their ankles and get ready to lose. After that happens a couple times, they just take the field in that position and expect the inevitable, despite the fact that they actually have some pretty good players. Such has been the case at Michigan St. in the John L Smith era. That nightmare is now over with the addition of new coach Mark Dantonio. MSU has some players, including a very good RB in Javon Ringer and some athletes on defense. Most luckily for the Spartans, however, is that they get to play UAB, who is in transition in every sense of the word. Brand new coaching staff, all new offensive personnel..it's going to be a down year for them. There's value in the line because of where MSU is coming from, but they are better than what Smith squeezed out of them last year.

11. Georgia Tech +2 1/2 @Notre Dame. When any objective observer looks at the rosters of these two teams, it's rather obvious that one team looks significantly better than the other. Notre Dame has new starters at QB, RB, all WR spots and 3 of the 5 offensive lineman. They'll line up against 8 returning starters and a coordinator that is among the most respected in the game, so we can assume that Charlie Weis will only mostly out-think him instead of thoroughly out-think him. Whatever. Georgia Tech is a legitimate solid squad with experience on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame is entirely new on offense, and very green in the front 7, which doesn't bode well for a team facing a RB that ran for 100 yards in 8 games in a row last year and has his OL back intact. Unless the echoes, TD Jesus and the Gipper can strap on the pads on Sept 1, the wrong team is favored in this one.

12 @Wyoming +4 1/2 v Virginia: I'm holding off on playing this one because it might go up a bit more. Al Groh is approaching Village Idiot status himself. His program has accomplished nothing since he got there. A lot of people like some of the talent he has on his team this year, but it's raw, including at QB. That QB, Jemel Sewell impressed a lot of people on a late Thursday night against a pathetic North Carolina outfit last year, but he spent most of last year stinking up the joint. This year, his only threat coming back at receiver is out for the year due to a fall practice mishap, so all of his skill players are new. on the positive side, all of the OL is back, and 10 starters return on defense. Now they go on the road all the way out to Wyoming to face the Pokes, who they beat last year at Virginia on a missed XP despite being outgained by 100 yards. Virginia could possibly dominate on the line of scrimmage, since their lines are back intact and Wyoming's are mostly new, but that generally doesn't happen when teams have to go on the road. I have a lot of doubts that UVA can put up a lot of points with no passing game, and Wyoming actually has most of it's skill position guys and back 7 back from last year. If Virginia wins, it won't be easy...I'll take the points.

Others: Wake is a dog, so they're a play at +6 1/2. I also like any matchup in which Jim Grobe is matched with a guy who's never been a head coach before, especially is his name is something like JAGodzinski.....Army has new coach, so the one positive think about Army(Bobby Ross) is now gone. Rumor had it that Army's offense didn't get a first down in 2 of their scrimmages this fall. I think Akron is going to be pretty sorry themselves this year, but if Army is only catching 5 on the road, I almost don't care who the opponent is, unless it's someone's JV or something......Arkansas lost Marcus Monk, their best receiver, so Casey Dick will be even more handicapped than his own handicap of sucking horribly normally leaves him. Troy has proven that they can hang with good programs on the road in the past. I just don't like the vibe at Arkansas this year. If McFadden doesn't run for 200+ just about every week, they are in trouble. Troy is catching 24, I think they can hang. They have talent and speed on both sides on the ball....I like Oregon this year. Their offense should really be good as long as one of their QBs establishes himself. Word is that Dennis Dixon has done that in fall practice. Houston is woeful on D, and despite my admiration for coach Briles, it might be asking a lot for a new QB to jump right in and put points on the board at Oregon. The spread is a manageable 15, I think the Ducks will quack loudly here.....I'll probably be playing both of the B12 dogs(K St V Auburn and Okie St v Georgia) though I can see plenty of evidence on both sides of those games. Not much logic I can point to, other than Auburn is overrated and Oklahoma St has the ability to be a pinball machine on offense. I can easily see both of them soiling themselves on the big stage, though.

That's about it for week one. Comments are certainly welcome.