Monday, August 27, 2007

Week 1 musings.

Well, I've been waiting the better part of 8 months to do this, but here goes week 1. Games of course start Thursday night, so it's time to get some thoughts on paper.

I actually was able to fund a couple of my books today, surprisingly without too much brain damage. I decided to stick with Bet jamaica for another year. There's nothing overly great about them...I just like that they're solid and they've never screwed me. -110 on everything isn't idea, but in my opinion, you need at least 2 books to shop lines. They also have half juice Friday nights, so if you're like me and find yourself at home on Friday nights, you won't have to pay more than -105 if you can stomach the number as it sits at that time. I also tried out Matchbook.com, which is actually an exchange. This is the closest book I can find to Pinnacle, as far as limited juice goes. This isn't a book, it's an exchange that matches bettors who are on opposite sides of a particular game. They charge a slight commission on games..in the end you average about -104. No money lines and no parlays though. Straight wagers only.

I've got to be honest: I'm looking to the season even more this year than I have in the past, due mostly to my quest to pay as little attention as possible to this taffy pull of a pennant race in the NL Central. The Cubs can play 5 games under .500 over the past month and gain 4 games in the standings? All this has done is increase the likelihood of the most unpleasant and nauseating of scenarios, which of course is the inevitable heartwarming tale of how the beloved St Louis Cardinals, sparked by the unwavering devotion and positive thoughts of their nerd fanbase, overcame tragedy and overwhelming odds to take the division. I got a first hand taste of this story as I unknowingly stumbled upon a radio broadcast/cheerleading session of a Cardinals game during my most recent death march through the nether regions of Southwest Indiana. Within 5 seconds, I got to hear the two dueling radio voices ejaculate all over each other at the sight of an Albert Pujols home run, and then declare that "the Redbirds are going to take this division baby!!!! If you believe it with all your heart, St Louis, it's gonna happen!!!!" One of the guys was Mike Shannon, who, incidentally owns the restaurant in which Josh Hancock got himself lathered before splattering his cerebellum all of I-70. Please, Lord, DO NOT ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN, no matter how many dork Cardinal fans pray for it with all their collective hearts.

Thursday games first:

1. LSU -17 @Mississippi St: First of all, I don't like LSU's ofense, at least at the outset this year. New QB, lots of missing Wrs from last year, a lack of a consistent running game and Gary Crowton as the OC. I've already touched on Les Miles...I don't need to beat that dead horse again do I? Well, having said all that, the chances of MIssissippi St scoring any points at all sits at about 25%. Can LSU string together 18+ points? Yeah, I think so. They'll probably score 7 on D anyway. Sly Croom's offenses have been devoid of any talent, gumption or any clue of what the hell they are doing since he got there. Now, with two QBs who completed 41 and 43% of their passes looking to lead the squad this year, the prospects don't look much better this year. In 2005, Miss St opened it's D -1 schedule on a Thursday night at Auburn and got shut out. Last year, they hosted South Carolina on a Thurday night opener and got shut out. The following week, they hosted Auburn and got shut out. This year, they open with LSU at home and....(see a pattern?)

2. Utah +7 @Oregon St: I've hemmed and hawed about this one, but after hearing that Oregon St is going to alternate Qbs by quarter, I'm sold on the Utes. Oregon Stactually has a pretty decent squad coming back on paper, but they will be breaking in a new QB, now 2 new Qbs, and their best player, WR Sammie Stroughter, has missed all of fall practice because of "personal issues". On the flip side, Utah has Brian Johnson, who was a very solid QB for them in '05 64% Comp%, 18/7 TD/Int ratio) before he got injured and missed last year. He's back in business now, and has all of Utah's Wrs back as well as a solid D. Utah will probably have the best offense in the MWC this year, so if Oregon St is planning on struggling with the new QB, they're going to want to bring their defense if they plan to win this one.

3. Miami(Oh) +6 @Ball St: Last year, Miami had a rare losing season, actually clocking in with a record of 2-10. However, on the season they were only outgained by 14 yards per game. Throughout the year, though, they got better. Conversely, Ball St was outgained by 83 yards and went 5-7. When these two teams played last year, Miami held a 359-226 yardage advantage but lost at the gun on a last second TD off a turnover on an interception return of all things. Miami will be looking to turn things around this year, and will want to reestablish themselves as a team that routinely takes a dump on the Ball St's of the world. Miami returns almost everyone from last year, so they probably remember slapping Ball St around last year only to get screwed out of the win.

Saturday:

4. @Memphis +3 v Ole Miss: Ole Miss ought to just fire Ed Orgeron now. It only took them one year to get tired of David Cutcliffe's infernal .500-ness, you'd think 2 years of utter incompetence by this oaf would have led them to pull the plug by now. Everyone was patting Orgeron on the back last year for landing Tennessee cast-off Brent Schaeffer out of a juco to play QB. Well, thanks to their complete lack of anything resembling an offensive scheme, Schaefer didn't do much. Now they've shit-canned him and are going with some stiff named Seth Adams, who has the potential to someday be a crappy college quarterback. Last year, Memphis was about the worst team in one of the worst conferences in college football, but they did manage to outgain Ole Miss at Ole Miss only to be nipped by a FG. Now these two heavyweights re-convene at Memphis this year and Ole Miss is voluntarily handicapping themselves by starting a green QB on the road. Orgeron should never be favored on the road against a non-Sun Belt team.

5. Missouri -5 v Illinois: I've heard so many pundits predict that Illinois will be a surprise team this year that I wonder if they will be a surprise at all. More likely, we'll see no line value on the Illini at all. Case in point: this game. Missouri is going to be damn good this year. Chase Daniel is every bit as good as every QB in the country with the possible exception of Colt Brennan. He has his favorite receivers back, the starting RB, and most of his OL. Meanwhile, the Illini are on the upswing, no doubt about that, but they're coming off a 2-10 campaign. They should be better on offense, but even when they play well, they ar capapble of only modest point totals against good teams. For example, if they play well in this game, they'll put up somewhere around 20-23 points. On defense, they could play very well and still give up 28-31, considering their penchant for turnovers in the most inopportune of times. That adds up to a best case scenario of 28-23, if Illinois PLAYS WELL, which is s stretch given their past performances in this dome series. Much better Illinois teams have been spanked by Missouri teams nowhere near as good as this one. I hope I'm wrong though.

6. @Cal -5 1/2 v Tennessee: What an aberration last year's game was. Of all the games covered in last year's musings, that was probably the game I wiffed the most on. I'm going back to the well here. Cal is going to be hell bent on revenge here. The biggest problem Cal had in last year's game was their inability to match up with UT's big receivers, who are now all gone. Eric Ainge is basically flying solo this year, especially since starting RB Coker is among the 250+morons who have somehow gotten suspended dthroughout college football this fall. UT is very thin in the skill spots and is banged up on D. Cal has most of their horses back, and a distinct coaching edge to go with the home crowd and a team that remembers getting cornholed last year on national TV. This is a bad spot for the Vols.

7. Iowa -11 1/2 v NIU: Soldier Field game. You think Iowa likes the idea of playing in their favorite recruiting territory. That makes me want to puke. Nevertheless, they are going to be good this year. NIu is on a bit of a rebuilding plan..their offense will struggle in this one. Iowa should be solid in all phases on D, and they have enough on offense to put up some points on NIU who have never really had much of defense despite all of their success.

No comments: