I woke this morning to some really terrific news. Bill Wirtz died last night. That is fantastic. I don't know if it's possible for me to give a shit about today's NHL, but this is a good start toward finding out, as long as Wirtz's spineless kids don't fear him from the grave. Hopefully, Peter Wirtz doesn't think to himself, "'Ok, Dad's dead. I'm in charge now. Any moron with the sense God gave to an amoeba can see that home games should be televised, but damn, if I do that, his decrepit, rotting hand might rise out of the earth and strangle me." The more dangerous scenario might be the fear of not doing "what he would have wanted." Well, the aspects of "what he wanted" reduced a once-proud franchise to a completely irrelevant laughingstock, so go ahead and give that a try.
Last week blew, 6-5 on the numbered musings and a collection of babbling absurdity among the also rans. The numbered musings are now at 64%..so we have some work to do to get to the stated(if unrealistic) goal of 66% for the year. It's still a number you can clean up with, but disappointing nontheless, since the last two weeks have been shit.
Every year, there's a week where you run into brutal luck with games you're on. I think (and hope) that last week was that week. For example, Wake is 3/4ths the way through their standard choke job as a favorite, losing 24-3 with Maryland knocking on the door at the 3 yard line looking to go up 31-3. Unfortunately, Maryland's womanly quarterback Jordan Steffy(could you conjure up a more homosexual name than that?) limpwristed a duck that was subsequently picked off and taken to the house for a 102 yard score. Wake scores again after a 3 and out, recovers an on side kick and scores to tie it with 3 seconds left, Naturally, Maryland shits the bed in OT to fail to cover the 3 1/2. Then later on, two thirds of Arkansas's team comes down with a mystery virus, causing most of their team to have a puke fest prior to the game. Despite that, Arkansas leads 20-7 with a 350-102 yard edge in the closing seconds of the first half, with the ball at Kentucky's 30, looking to add another score. Then their ham-fisted quarterback Casey Dick trips over the pulling guard, bounces a handoff to McFadden, which in turn bounces right into the hands of an in-stride Kentucky defender who takes it 75 yards for a score with 25 seconds left in the half. They then get the opening kick of the second half and take it down for a score to make it 21-20. After that, Arkansas runs out of IVs for all it's sick players, several of them are too dehyrated to continue, and they wilt sown the stretch and lose. For the sake of time I won't get into the Iowa/Wisconsin debacle, or the fact that New Mexico State figured out a way to turn it over 7 times, which answers the question, "How do you outgain your opponent for the game and lead at halftime, but still manage to fail to cover a game by 18 points?"
On to this week:
1. @Arkansas St -4 V Mepis: THURSDAY This was an original musing from week 2, but the game was cancelled due to inclement weather. Unfortunately, at the time, the spread was Arky St +4. I guess we would have been on the right side in retrospect. Arky St failed to cover at Tennessee last week by a point thanks to a late FG by UT and 2 consecutive missed 4th downs inside Ut's 10 in the 4th quarter. Oh well, another bone job. In that game however, the Tribe continued to show that they can compete against the big boys. Their RB ran for 130 yards on 16 carries, and they threw it effectively as well. Memphis spent the day getting drilled by Central Florida, who was in a supreme letdown spot after losing the tough one to Texas the week before. When you play a bunch of wet wipes, though, it really doesn't make any difference what spot you find yourself in.Even their backup QBcame in and went 11 for12. UCF ended up with a 600+ yard performance. This is Central Florida we're talking about, not Oklahoma or something. Tommy West is clearly a lame duck, and his team knows it. Arky St will still be looking at this as a statement opportunity, and they are certainly the better team at this point.
2. @South Florida +7 v West Virginia: FRIDAY. There is always some danger in going against this juggernaut, but South Florida is a terrble matchup for WV. They are fast, tough and smart on defense, and they'll be playing this game on grass. Last year in Morgantown, South Florida came in and beat them in a must win for WV, and it wasn't a fluke. They outgained them for the day, and injured Pat White in the process. WV never got anything going on the ground, with a season low output of 132 yards rushing(3.2 per). Now they come back with both teams basically intact this year to tee it up again. It's being billed as the biggest home game in So Fla's history. I think this could go either way, so I'll take the 7.
3. @Purdue -21 v Notre Dame: I don't want to pile on, since Notre Dame has a taken enough criticism over the past few weeks, but Good Lord, passing on this game is just foolish. With this offense, which has reached mythic proportions in it's ineptitude, Notre Dame matches up well with no team in Division 1. But Purdue? Outside of Okalhoma or LSU, or God forbid USC(they ought to cancel that one in a couple weeks) there isn't a worse matchup for the Irish than Purdue right now. Instead of going into specifics, let me just tell you that ND is statistically the worst offense Division 1 has seen in at least 5 years, probably longer. They are last in every measurable offensive category in the country. Texas Tech has as many passing touchdowns as they have first downs if you can believe that. In short, it would be a miracle if they can score more than 14 points, against any defense. What we tend to forget about Notre Dame, is that they have a bad defense as well. It hasn't really been exposed because teams haven't even needed to pass against them. They're actually in the top 10 nationally against the pass, but when you notice that teams are only attempting 20 throws per game against them, and that they've still managed to give up 8TD's vs 2 INTs, you see that this is not much of a unit. Purdue QB CurtisPainter has thrown 12 TDs vs 0 Ints and has been sacked once all year. I'd say Tiller has things working well. Considering they will have an average field position of ND's 40 thanks to a collection of sacks, turnovers and shanked punts, it will be even easier for them. Also, don't forget that Purdue has spent the better part of 3 years getting punded by ND, and Joe Tiller is known to be a bit of a cock, so don't expect them to let up at all.
4. @Florida -18 v Auburn: Auburn and Tommy Tuberville have lived a charmed life over the past few years. He has gone from county dullard about to be run out on a rail to privilegded media cupcake in the process. This week, he and his collection weakling queers are going to know pain. The difference in skill level between these teams is frightening, and Florida definitely remembers who somehow gave them their only loss last year. Unless Urban Meyer is guilty of some kind of shananigans that Tuberville has pictures of, or he decides to take his starting offense to visit sick children during the game or something, this should be a beatdown.
5. Clemson -3 @Georgia Tech: Historically, I have had a hard time trusting Clemson, especially as a road favorite, and especially especially when they are already coming off a game in which they covered as a road favorite, but in this case, I'm taking the plunge. They have turned into a balanced offense with the development of Cullen Harper. So far this year, he's thrown 12 TD's with no INTs, and he's played against Florida St and NC State. Last week against NC State, they completely dominated, with both of their RBs going over 100, and holding NC state to nothing on offense until the game was pretty much over. Georgia Tech continues to stink offensively, especially on 3rd down. Taylor Bennett is starting to remind people of Reggie Ball. Georgia Tech is sliding..Clemson should hammer them.
6. Western Michigan pk @Toledo: After a bit of a hiatus, Western Michigan returns to the musings. Toledo is coming off a home win against Iowa St, but don't get too excited. They were pretty much dominated in the game, and only won because they got 2 special teams TD's in the last 8 minutes of the game. Plus, Iowa St will find a way to lose a road game, regardless of the opponent. So far this year, Toledo has given up 52, 52, 35 and 31 points in their games and now face another solid passing attack in WMU. After a slow start, they are starting to pick it up offensively, and despite their numbers being skewed by games against West Virginia and Missouri, they have a good stop unit. I think this is where the Broncos will stke their claim as the class of the MAC.
7 Colorado St +11 @TCU: TCU followed up a two game losing streak with an absolute clunker last week against SMU. To illustrate TCu's offensive struggles, consider that SMU coming into that game was dead last in pass defense, having given up 600+ to previously impotent North Texas through the air. TCU ended up getting outgained by more than 100 yards in the game, and only totalled 108 passing yards for the game at home. Luckily for them, their defense held SMU to 7, and they scored 2 TDs on returns, so they won, but of course failed to cover. Now they come in as double digit favorites against a much better Colorado St team(despite being winless against a tough openeing slate of Colorado, Cal and Houston on the road) who has a solid offense. (28 vs Colorado, 27 vs Cal) In order to cover this, TCU will probably have to put up at least 28, and their defense took a hit when their best player, DE Tommy Blake had to leave the team for personal reasons. Colorado St also isn't going winless..they have a great shot at an outright win.
8. @Oregon -5 v Cal: I think most people would look at this game and say "Holy Shit, I can get 5 with Cal?" I thought that too, but a closer inspection indicates that Oregon looks like the right side. Oregon's offense has been devestating this year. They're probably the top offense in college football right now with the way they can run and pass. Dennis Dixon has 11 TDs against zero picks, and they are running it at 6.2 ypc. Cal's defense is nothing to write home about, especially on the road. In addition, their offense loses some luster as well, as Nate Longshore in his career only averages about 185 yards passing per game with a 6/9 TD/INT ratio on the road, and Cal was outgained in their only road game this year, a 34-28 squeaker with Colorado St in which Longshore only totalled 146 yards through the air. If they hope to hang with Oregon this week, they'll need to have one of their best offensive games in years, or they'll have to get a shitload of turnovers, because Oregon is going to move it on them for sure.
9. @Tulsa -21 V UAB: You can pretty much take it to the bank that Tulsa is going to put up a ton of points in this one...I really doubt that UAB will be able to stop that offense at all. Their defense is also much better than they've shown, considering the offenses they've faced. I can easily see a 63-21 game here.
10. Indiana +11 @Iowa: I think there might be some sentiment for Iowa because they hung with Wisconsin, but all they proved to me was that they still can't move the ball. This week, they lost two of their good offensive weapons in the game, so they're even more shorthanded. Indiana, despite their troubles with Illinois last week, has an offense that can move the ball. I think that as long as they don't turn the ball over a bunch of times and show some semblance of a rush defense, they have a shot in this game.
Others: There are a lot of dogs I like this week. I don't LOVE them, but I like them enough to plop a couple bucks on 'em. First, any team catching points when playing Louisville at home is a must play. I realize NC State showed nothing against Clemson last week, but any team that can give up 400+ yards passing to Syracuse has got to be the worst defense ever created. When DC Mike Cassity was at Illinois, there came a time when the Illini just could not stop a soul on defense, as if they just forgot what defense was after a couple years of competence. Looks like that's happening to Louisville, because they have just given up on defense. MTSU and Syracuse, other than in their games with Louisville, can't even walk and chew gum at the same time. With the 9, I'll go with Nc State.........I like Pitt to bounce back after their loss to UCONN at home. They made a QB switch and with the solid running game they have along with a pretty good D, they might sneak up on Virginia who is laying 7 coming off an emotional game with Ga Tech......UCONN might also have a big letdown after their win at Pitt last week. They are laying 13 1/2 to Akron. Don't forget that UCONN barely squeaked by Temple two weeks ago and should have lost if a replay official got a TD catch called correctly. Akron, despite a weak offense, has shown the ability to hang....Arizona St gave up 500+ at home to Oregon St last week, getting outgained by 100+ in the process. Luckily for them they were granted 5 INTs by Oregon St basket case Sean Canfield. Now they go on the road for the first time this year to play what looks to be an improved Stanford team, who can throw it a bit. They're laying more than 2 TDs(14 1/2). I'll go with the home dog there...... Even though Bama has let us down two weeks in a row, I don't trust a Florida St team that still can't convert a third down to cover as a favorite against them on a neutral field. FSU hasn't even really been that good on defense. I like Bama there.....Texas A&M might have a letdown after getting pummelled by Miami. Baylor comes in as a 17 point dog. So far this year, Baylor has shown some life in the passing game, and A&M has shown no ability to stop anyone. It's an early game on the plains, so A&M might take some time to warm up, and Baylor has hung tough with them two years in a row.....TREND PLAY: Vandy has always struggled as a favorite, and this week they are laying 20 to Eastern Michigan. EMU isn't much, but Vandy might struggle with a number that big. Hopefully, we see a nice turnaround from last week. Take care.
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Friday, September 21, 2007
Week 4 musings
Week 3 was an unmitigated disaster. 5-7 or 5-6-1 based on where you got Alabama. I got them at 3, but the musings said 3 1/2, so we go with 3 1/2, thus the 5-7 record on the numbered musings. Hopefully, everyone found some logic they liked in the other listed games, which went 6-0. I actually went 18-9(I know, too many games), but I certainly picked the wrong games to list as numbered musings. There were, however, some bright spots from the week, namely that noted jackass Tommy Tuberville and his sickly Auburn team got beat outright at home by Sly Croom and his band of misfits. I almost was hoping for Auburn to pull it out in that one so we could continue the "Fade Auburn" joyride. Now I'm afraid it'll cost a heavy price from this point on to fade those cripples.
Quick Rant: Why does ESPN think that a football game does not provide enough entertainment on it's own during their telecasts? If you watch tonight's game, they will preview for you what topics they'll be covering during the game. they'll actually have a menu for each quarter, as if the game I'm watching isn't important enough to pay attention to. Tonight, they've got the #3 team in the country on, but I bet they'll feel more inclined to bash Notre Dame or Michigan instead. The height of this bullshit was Saturday during the Alabama Arkansas game. During the game, they have a phone conversation between the guys in the booth and some chick from the US Soccer team calling from whatever godforsaken place they're having the "Women's" World Cup this year. So I have to listen to this giggling maniac talk about the US team's awesome win over Bulungi, or Shitbagistan or whoever the hell they played. Hey assholes!!! I"M WATCHING ALABAMA/ARKANSAS!!!! WHAT THE HELL DO I CARE ABOUT THIS SHIT??????? STOP FORCING THIS POLITICALLY CORRECT BULLSHIT ON ME IN MY DOMAIN AND TALK ABOUT THE MOTHERFUCKING GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Had to get that off my chest. On to this week....Good strart so far thanks to the 'Canes.
2. @Tulsa +231/2(hopefully 24) v Oklahoma: Tonight. If you hesitate on this one, I have no problem with that, since Oklahoma has looked extremely good thus far. I have a feeling we might have 3 undefeateds, much like in '03, because the Sooners don't appear to have a game on their schedule in which they'll be favored by less than about 8, as it appears that they'll consume Texas in one bite and shit them about about two hours later. However, this might be one of the very few spots to go against them. Despite their utter destruction of their opponents so far, the level of offensive talent against them hasn't been good. Miami was playing the buffoonish Kirby Freeman at QB for the defining portions of their game, so that doesn't count. Utah St is a joke, so they don't count. This is also their first foray on the road, so we can expect some struggles, and trust me, Sam Bradford can't be THAT good can he? OK, Oklahoma's good, but so is Tulsa in my opinion. Todd Graham has proven to be a helluva coach, and they way they moved the ball o0n BYU last week suggests that they will be successful to some degree against just about everyone, especially at home. Unfortunately, they have been a sieve on D, so we'll have to hope for OU to come out without all cylinders firing. 23 is a lot of points..if Tulsa has their offense working and doesn't give up 60 I think they can get under the number. The game certainly means a lot more to Tulsa(and they're undefeated) that it does to OU. It'll be a fun one to watch.
3. @Michigan +3 v Penn St: I said in the preseason musings that Michigan "should have" run the table. I will now say that they "should" run the table from here. They sucked it in the first two games because they didn't match up for shit against Oregon, and because Appy St happened to have a spread offense as well, which they have proven they can't stop to save their Syracuses. In this game, they match up. Anthony Morelli, in my opinion, still has not shown that he can do much of anything positive in a tough situation, and frankly Penn St hasn't really beaten anyone to justify their ranking. Lloyd Carr despite being a douche bag has beaten Paterno nine times in a row. If he lets Ryan Mallett actually play quarterback this week and use his weapons, I think Michigan can easily win this game. They'll have a lot to prove in the wake of the nonstop chatter about how much they suck. They really don't suck.
4. @Arkansas -7 v Kentucky: Kentucky is coming off their best win in several years, maybe even decades last week against Louisville. Everyone is on the bandwagon in Lexington, and they are now ranked in the top 25 for the first time in awhile. there is no way in hell they can be prepared and mentally ready enough to compete with Arkansas. The Hogs really impressed me last week in Tuscaloosa by coming back when they were completely out of it early. Casey Dick even looked pretty good throwing the ball, piling up 38 points on the road in the process. Now they come back home to play a night game on national TV against a distracted team that doesn't have half of the D that Bama does. It will not be made difficult for them. They will need to slow down Woodson and co, but this team has not really proven that they can pile up the necessary points against a competent SEC defense on the road. In their last 7 SEC road games against the non Mississippi/Vandy schools they have scored 12,0,7,13,7, and 16 points. They'll need at least 28 to cover this one in my opinion, maybe more.
5. @Wisconsin -7 v Iowa: I kind of think this spread will go up, so you might want to jump on it. Home teams in these type of situations(national night games, relatively short favorites) tend to jump all over their unsuspecting prey like hyenas. Wisconsin has not looked very good this year in any of their games...The freakin Citadel had them on the ropes this past week for goodness sakes, but this is the first game they play that they'll really have their juices flowing. Iowa, by contrast, already played someone who had their juices flowing last week, the dreadful Iowa St Cyclones, who punked them as 17 point dogs despite not denting the end zone even once. Iowa should be a lot better than they've shown, but they just refuse to be efficient on offense, despite some good talent. Jake Christensen threw for a paltry amount of yards against iowa St's sieve, as well as Northern. Their running game is decent, but rather pedestrian and will probably be almost non-existant against Wisconsin. They are unlikely to put up much offense. Wisconsin might not either, but they have shown an ability to get things done in the passing game, and maybe PJ Hill will feel like running hard. They'll get more than enough to cover this one. It'll probably be over early in the second half.
6. @BYU -11 1/2 v Air Force: Air Force has looked good so far this year, winning at Utah, and at home against TCU.However, Utah was playing their first game with new skill people, and weren't really ready to play a disciplined squad like AF, and TCU actually outgained the Syracuse out of AF in theThursday night game, they just fell victim to a couple big plays and a bunch of turnovers. As a matter of fact, TCU's super pedestrian QB threw for 300+ on them. Now they go on the road to face BYU's passing attck, which just dropped over 500 in a losing cause at Tulsa, and riddled UCLA for a ton on the road in another loss. BYU has struggled against the pass, but has not had any problems against the run. In short, this is a bad matchup for the Academy here. Also, the points almost never come into play in BYU home games..they either blow people out or lose outright. At 1-2, this team is NOT going to lose this game.
7. @Alabama -3 1/2 V Georgia: It's a good idea to avoid the urge to dismiss Bama after they puked up that lead last week against Arkansas. They are back in a good spot this week at home, on national TV against an overrated Georgia team. I don't think Stafford is ready yet to pull out a victory on the road when the band is playing against a solid team like Bama. georgia has had cases of extreme matador-like behavior at times lately, and if that tendency shows up this week, they have no chance to cover. They also can't turn the ball over, which they are prone to do at times as well.
8. New Mexico St +161/2 @ Auburn: OK. Auburn is 1-2. We know that. They are 1-2 because they suck ass. To wit, South Florida didn't even play that well against them in week 2 and beat them. K St was completely incapable because they had a crippled QB a helpless/special needs left tackle and a retarded head cosch, but they still almost beat them. Mississippi St, a horrific team in their own right had their QBs go 5/18 for 41 yards passing AND WON. Auburn now is using 2 QBs, one a true frshman who can't throw, as well as a ton of frshman and sophomores in other areas. Their defense is completely banged up. Now NMSU comes in, they of the electric passing game and helpless defense. The helpless defense, however is somewhat mitigated by the in shambles offense on the other side. Last year MNSU outgained their opponents by almost 100 ypg and have outgained their foes in all their games this year. They will almost certainly go up and down the field on Auburn. I don't expect an outright win, but I don't think Auburn should be favored by this much against a capable offensive squad.
9. Purdue -13 1/2 @ Minnesota: I do not like taking Purdue in a spot like this,(DD road favorite)but unless they completely Syracuse the bed, there is no reason they can't lay at least 50+ on the Gophers. Minnesota just gave up 590 yards, including 400+ passing and 5 TDs to the great Rusty Smith and Florida Atlantic.They also gave up 500+ to offensive lightweights like Miami(OH) and BG so it's no accident. Purdue has looked downright scary against the collection of homos they've played so far, but scary nontheless. Minnesota might be able to move it some on Purdue, but Minnesota has also shown a very bad penchant for tuning the ball over (7 last week). It's funny how Minnesota got tired of Glen Mason only getting them to second tier bowl games every year. Being the laughingstock of the Big Ten is so much more desirable.
10. @Virginia +4 v Ga Tech: I think we all were blinded by that opening performance vs an historically inept Notre Dame team when considering Ga Tech. They showed themselves to be completely unable to make a 3rd down conversion in the first 3 quarters of that game, and continued that trend in their putrid performance against BC this past week. Now they go on the road to face a Virginia defense that is better than they've shown so far. Offensively, they haven't shown a whole lot, and Ga tech will be the best D they've seen so far(though Wyoming is good as well), but they can run it pretty well, and the rotating QB system worked ok for them last week. As home dogs, they almost always find a way to cover, and Ga Tech looks ripe to be covered against.
11. Ball St +22 1/2 @Nebraska: Ball St likes itself right now, having gone 2-1 with a nice win at Navy last week. They're actually kicking themslves for yacking away their opener against Miami(OH). They have a good QB, a very good receiver and a pretty good running game. On the flip side, Nebraska is almost certainly going to have a hangover after that USC game. I like to go against big favorites in early games, since it might take them awhile to get going. There is some risk that Nebraska will run wild on BSU's d, since they've given up more than 6 yards per carry on the year, but rushing numbers are always skewed negatively coming off a game with Navy. I think Ball St is no pushover, and in order to cover 3 td's, Nebraska will have to play inspired football. Don't forget that Ball St almost beat Michigan at the big house last year in the middle of Michigan's dominant run, so they've snuck up on unsuspecting big dogs before.
Others: Coming off the Minnesota win, Florida Atlantic is laying 7 on the road at North Texas. UNT is winless, but this is the Sun Belt, and FAU can look great one week and pathetic the next. There's a new spread offinse at UNT now and they haven't unveiled it at home yet..might be a lot of points in that one, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if UNT took that one outright.....Maryland is catching 3 1/2 at Wake, so the obligatory fade Wake as a favorite rule is in play. Army's cover of them last week brought Grobe to a 3-17 record as a home favorite....Wyoming is laying 4 to Ohio. They are pretty good, especially on defense. Ohio is Notre Dame-bad offensively, so as long as the 'Boys can put up a couple scores, they should cover that...I'll be on Colorado to cover the 14 on Miami(oh). Big coaching edge in that one....Arky St is catching 20 at Tennesse. This Arky St team has looked very good so far, and UT migth be feeling sorry for themselves a bit off that thrashing they took at Florida. If they don't show up for this one,they will be ion for a dogfight....For some reason I think Northwestern gets up off the deck after that brutal loss to Duke and competes with Ohio St....I also think NC State is due for a good gme, and I think Clemson is a bit overrated at this point. They have a tendency to lose games like this, and NC St is catching 7 at home....Last note, I don't really recommend going against Florida at this point, but Urban meyer is 0-7 ATS at Florida as a road favorite. Ole Miss is the beneficiary of 23 this week. Will it be enough? History says yes.
Ok that's it. take care, and let's make up for that abortion from last week.
Quick Rant: Why does ESPN think that a football game does not provide enough entertainment on it's own during their telecasts? If you watch tonight's game, they will preview for you what topics they'll be covering during the game. they'll actually have a menu for each quarter, as if the game I'm watching isn't important enough to pay attention to. Tonight, they've got the #3 team in the country on, but I bet they'll feel more inclined to bash Notre Dame or Michigan instead. The height of this bullshit was Saturday during the Alabama Arkansas game. During the game, they have a phone conversation between the guys in the booth and some chick from the US Soccer team calling from whatever godforsaken place they're having the "Women's" World Cup this year. So I have to listen to this giggling maniac talk about the US team's awesome win over Bulungi, or Shitbagistan or whoever the hell they played. Hey assholes!!! I"M WATCHING ALABAMA/ARKANSAS!!!! WHAT THE HELL DO I CARE ABOUT THIS SHIT??????? STOP FORCING THIS POLITICALLY CORRECT BULLSHIT ON ME IN MY DOMAIN AND TALK ABOUT THE MOTHERFUCKING GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Had to get that off my chest. On to this week....Good strart so far thanks to the 'Canes.
2. @Tulsa +231/2(hopefully 24) v Oklahoma: Tonight. If you hesitate on this one, I have no problem with that, since Oklahoma has looked extremely good thus far. I have a feeling we might have 3 undefeateds, much like in '03, because the Sooners don't appear to have a game on their schedule in which they'll be favored by less than about 8, as it appears that they'll consume Texas in one bite and shit them about about two hours later. However, this might be one of the very few spots to go against them. Despite their utter destruction of their opponents so far, the level of offensive talent against them hasn't been good. Miami was playing the buffoonish Kirby Freeman at QB for the defining portions of their game, so that doesn't count. Utah St is a joke, so they don't count. This is also their first foray on the road, so we can expect some struggles, and trust me, Sam Bradford can't be THAT good can he? OK, Oklahoma's good, but so is Tulsa in my opinion. Todd Graham has proven to be a helluva coach, and they way they moved the ball o0n BYU last week suggests that they will be successful to some degree against just about everyone, especially at home. Unfortunately, they have been a sieve on D, so we'll have to hope for OU to come out without all cylinders firing. 23 is a lot of points..if Tulsa has their offense working and doesn't give up 60 I think they can get under the number. The game certainly means a lot more to Tulsa(and they're undefeated) that it does to OU. It'll be a fun one to watch.
3. @Michigan +3 v Penn St: I said in the preseason musings that Michigan "should have" run the table. I will now say that they "should" run the table from here. They sucked it in the first two games because they didn't match up for shit against Oregon, and because Appy St happened to have a spread offense as well, which they have proven they can't stop to save their Syracuses. In this game, they match up. Anthony Morelli, in my opinion, still has not shown that he can do much of anything positive in a tough situation, and frankly Penn St hasn't really beaten anyone to justify their ranking. Lloyd Carr despite being a douche bag has beaten Paterno nine times in a row. If he lets Ryan Mallett actually play quarterback this week and use his weapons, I think Michigan can easily win this game. They'll have a lot to prove in the wake of the nonstop chatter about how much they suck. They really don't suck.
4. @Arkansas -7 v Kentucky: Kentucky is coming off their best win in several years, maybe even decades last week against Louisville. Everyone is on the bandwagon in Lexington, and they are now ranked in the top 25 for the first time in awhile. there is no way in hell they can be prepared and mentally ready enough to compete with Arkansas. The Hogs really impressed me last week in Tuscaloosa by coming back when they were completely out of it early. Casey Dick even looked pretty good throwing the ball, piling up 38 points on the road in the process. Now they come back home to play a night game on national TV against a distracted team that doesn't have half of the D that Bama does. It will not be made difficult for them. They will need to slow down Woodson and co, but this team has not really proven that they can pile up the necessary points against a competent SEC defense on the road. In their last 7 SEC road games against the non Mississippi/Vandy schools they have scored 12,0,7,13,7, and 16 points. They'll need at least 28 to cover this one in my opinion, maybe more.
5. @Wisconsin -7 v Iowa: I kind of think this spread will go up, so you might want to jump on it. Home teams in these type of situations(national night games, relatively short favorites) tend to jump all over their unsuspecting prey like hyenas. Wisconsin has not looked very good this year in any of their games...The freakin Citadel had them on the ropes this past week for goodness sakes, but this is the first game they play that they'll really have their juices flowing. Iowa, by contrast, already played someone who had their juices flowing last week, the dreadful Iowa St Cyclones, who punked them as 17 point dogs despite not denting the end zone even once. Iowa should be a lot better than they've shown, but they just refuse to be efficient on offense, despite some good talent. Jake Christensen threw for a paltry amount of yards against iowa St's sieve, as well as Northern. Their running game is decent, but rather pedestrian and will probably be almost non-existant against Wisconsin. They are unlikely to put up much offense. Wisconsin might not either, but they have shown an ability to get things done in the passing game, and maybe PJ Hill will feel like running hard. They'll get more than enough to cover this one. It'll probably be over early in the second half.
6. @BYU -11 1/2 v Air Force: Air Force has looked good so far this year, winning at Utah, and at home against TCU.However, Utah was playing their first game with new skill people, and weren't really ready to play a disciplined squad like AF, and TCU actually outgained the Syracuse out of AF in theThursday night game, they just fell victim to a couple big plays and a bunch of turnovers. As a matter of fact, TCU's super pedestrian QB threw for 300+ on them. Now they go on the road to face BYU's passing attck, which just dropped over 500 in a losing cause at Tulsa, and riddled UCLA for a ton on the road in another loss. BYU has struggled against the pass, but has not had any problems against the run. In short, this is a bad matchup for the Academy here. Also, the points almost never come into play in BYU home games..they either blow people out or lose outright. At 1-2, this team is NOT going to lose this game.
7. @Alabama -3 1/2 V Georgia: It's a good idea to avoid the urge to dismiss Bama after they puked up that lead last week against Arkansas. They are back in a good spot this week at home, on national TV against an overrated Georgia team. I don't think Stafford is ready yet to pull out a victory on the road when the band is playing against a solid team like Bama. georgia has had cases of extreme matador-like behavior at times lately, and if that tendency shows up this week, they have no chance to cover. They also can't turn the ball over, which they are prone to do at times as well.
8. New Mexico St +161/2 @ Auburn: OK. Auburn is 1-2. We know that. They are 1-2 because they suck ass. To wit, South Florida didn't even play that well against them in week 2 and beat them. K St was completely incapable because they had a crippled QB a helpless/special needs left tackle and a retarded head cosch, but they still almost beat them. Mississippi St, a horrific team in their own right had their QBs go 5/18 for 41 yards passing AND WON. Auburn now is using 2 QBs, one a true frshman who can't throw, as well as a ton of frshman and sophomores in other areas. Their defense is completely banged up. Now NMSU comes in, they of the electric passing game and helpless defense. The helpless defense, however is somewhat mitigated by the in shambles offense on the other side. Last year MNSU outgained their opponents by almost 100 ypg and have outgained their foes in all their games this year. They will almost certainly go up and down the field on Auburn. I don't expect an outright win, but I don't think Auburn should be favored by this much against a capable offensive squad.
9. Purdue -13 1/2 @ Minnesota: I do not like taking Purdue in a spot like this,(DD road favorite)but unless they completely Syracuse the bed, there is no reason they can't lay at least 50+ on the Gophers. Minnesota just gave up 590 yards, including 400+ passing and 5 TDs to the great Rusty Smith and Florida Atlantic.They also gave up 500+ to offensive lightweights like Miami(OH) and BG so it's no accident. Purdue has looked downright scary against the collection of homos they've played so far, but scary nontheless. Minnesota might be able to move it some on Purdue, but Minnesota has also shown a very bad penchant for tuning the ball over (7 last week). It's funny how Minnesota got tired of Glen Mason only getting them to second tier bowl games every year. Being the laughingstock of the Big Ten is so much more desirable.
10. @Virginia +4 v Ga Tech: I think we all were blinded by that opening performance vs an historically inept Notre Dame team when considering Ga Tech. They showed themselves to be completely unable to make a 3rd down conversion in the first 3 quarters of that game, and continued that trend in their putrid performance against BC this past week. Now they go on the road to face a Virginia defense that is better than they've shown so far. Offensively, they haven't shown a whole lot, and Ga tech will be the best D they've seen so far(though Wyoming is good as well), but they can run it pretty well, and the rotating QB system worked ok for them last week. As home dogs, they almost always find a way to cover, and Ga Tech looks ripe to be covered against.
11. Ball St +22 1/2 @Nebraska: Ball St likes itself right now, having gone 2-1 with a nice win at Navy last week. They're actually kicking themslves for yacking away their opener against Miami(OH). They have a good QB, a very good receiver and a pretty good running game. On the flip side, Nebraska is almost certainly going to have a hangover after that USC game. I like to go against big favorites in early games, since it might take them awhile to get going. There is some risk that Nebraska will run wild on BSU's d, since they've given up more than 6 yards per carry on the year, but rushing numbers are always skewed negatively coming off a game with Navy. I think Ball St is no pushover, and in order to cover 3 td's, Nebraska will have to play inspired football. Don't forget that Ball St almost beat Michigan at the big house last year in the middle of Michigan's dominant run, so they've snuck up on unsuspecting big dogs before.
Others: Coming off the Minnesota win, Florida Atlantic is laying 7 on the road at North Texas. UNT is winless, but this is the Sun Belt, and FAU can look great one week and pathetic the next. There's a new spread offinse at UNT now and they haven't unveiled it at home yet..might be a lot of points in that one, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if UNT took that one outright.....Maryland is catching 3 1/2 at Wake, so the obligatory fade Wake as a favorite rule is in play. Army's cover of them last week brought Grobe to a 3-17 record as a home favorite....Wyoming is laying 4 to Ohio. They are pretty good, especially on defense. Ohio is Notre Dame-bad offensively, so as long as the 'Boys can put up a couple scores, they should cover that...I'll be on Colorado to cover the 14 on Miami(oh). Big coaching edge in that one....Arky St is catching 20 at Tennesse. This Arky St team has looked very good so far, and UT migth be feeling sorry for themselves a bit off that thrashing they took at Florida. If they don't show up for this one,they will be ion for a dogfight....For some reason I think Northwestern gets up off the deck after that brutal loss to Duke and competes with Ohio St....I also think NC State is due for a good gme, and I think Clemson is a bit overrated at this point. They have a tendency to lose games like this, and NC St is catching 7 at home....Last note, I don't really recommend going against Florida at this point, but Urban meyer is 0-7 ATS at Florida as a road favorite. Ole Miss is the beneficiary of 23 this week. Will it be enough? History says yes.
Ok that's it. take care, and let's make up for that abortion from last week.
Week 4 Weeknight (miami v A&M)
I didn't get a chance to post this, but sent it out in an email Thursday afternoon. In an effort to document everything, here goes...
Alright, this will be short because I have to get going....I'll have the full complement hopefully tomorrow morning.
1. @Miami -2 v Texas A&M: After much back and forth, hand wringing and teeth gnashing, I've decided to go ahead and go with the Canes here. We all know that Skeletor has bastardized this program beyond all recognition, at least on the field. They still have their thuggish tendencies such as last year's street fight with FIU and the fact that their players have enough gang contacts that one of them got picked off in a drive by shooting near their campus last year. However, the good part about being a thug program is that thugs usually, when properly coked up, can be effective on the football field. Since the advent of Coker, that part kind of went away. Too bad for them I guess. Now Randy Shannon is doing what he can to restore some pride here in the last season of the Orange Bowl(boo!). This spread has fallen to what almost amounts to a pick 'em. Most of the public is on the road dog, which is never a good sign for said road dog. So far this year, A&M hasn't really played anyone. They struggled with Fresno, and gave up a lot of rushing yards to Lou-Mon, so they haven't exactly dominated. The question is whether this team can go into Miami when the lights are on and band is playing and knock off the Hurricanes. Generally this is a much easier task than it used to be, but I don't think it will be easy. Miami is still very good on defense, and Texas A&M is one dimensional. Miami struggles on offense, but A&M and the rest of the non Oklahoma Big 12 doesn't play any defense. Now that Kyle Wright is back at QB and the Kirby Freeman experiment has thankfully ended, Miami can be competent on offense, especially at home against a weak d. I think their weakness will be somewhat offset as a result. I think Miami gets lathered up and plays inspired football tonight, and that's never a good thing, especially for a team like A&M who historically struggles as a road dog. Despite their talent(and I generally like their offense) I don't think they get it done tonight.
Alright, this will be short because I have to get going....I'll have the full complement hopefully tomorrow morning.
1. @Miami -2 v Texas A&M: After much back and forth, hand wringing and teeth gnashing, I've decided to go ahead and go with the Canes here. We all know that Skeletor has bastardized this program beyond all recognition, at least on the field. They still have their thuggish tendencies such as last year's street fight with FIU and the fact that their players have enough gang contacts that one of them got picked off in a drive by shooting near their campus last year. However, the good part about being a thug program is that thugs usually, when properly coked up, can be effective on the football field. Since the advent of Coker, that part kind of went away. Too bad for them I guess. Now Randy Shannon is doing what he can to restore some pride here in the last season of the Orange Bowl(boo!). This spread has fallen to what almost amounts to a pick 'em. Most of the public is on the road dog, which is never a good sign for said road dog. So far this year, A&M hasn't really played anyone. They struggled with Fresno, and gave up a lot of rushing yards to Lou-Mon, so they haven't exactly dominated. The question is whether this team can go into Miami when the lights are on and band is playing and knock off the Hurricanes. Generally this is a much easier task than it used to be, but I don't think it will be easy. Miami is still very good on defense, and Texas A&M is one dimensional. Miami struggles on offense, but A&M and the rest of the non Oklahoma Big 12 doesn't play any defense. Now that Kyle Wright is back at QB and the Kirby Freeman experiment has thankfully ended, Miami can be competent on offense, especially at home against a weak d. I think their weakness will be somewhat offset as a result. I think Miami gets lathered up and plays inspired football tonight, and that's never a good thing, especially for a team like A&M who historically struggles as a road dog. Despite their talent(and I generally like their offense) I don't think they get it done tonight.
Friday, September 14, 2007
Week 3 Musings
After an 8-4 week, the numbered musings are 19-5 for the year. That's a 79% clip. I guess you can make some money that way. Unfortunately, I wouldn't know because I got blistered in the pros trying to cash in on dog money lines. There were opportunities, but it was like a relay race of failure for all these dogs trying to win outright. Bears, Giants, Ravens, Cardinals. Bunch of fags, all of 'em.
I also have to give a mea culpa in regards to that South Carolina game. I am completely ashamed of myself for not sticking to my guns and going with the Cocks on that one. When it opened at 5 1/2, I was seriously looking at South Carolina, But then the line moved all the way to 3 by kickoff, and I changed my tune completely, surmising that a win outright at this juncture was unlikely. Maybe so, but at the very least, that should have been a no play. At no time should I go from favoring one side to favoring the other enough to include it as a numbered musing. It should be impossible to have such a change of opinion based on only 2 points of line movement.I will not have that happen again. Ugh, I'm still kicking myself on that one.
One the brightside, though, my prayers were answered. After a near miss last week, I got to see Lard Ass, Dickface Cocksuckerville and Douche Bag all lose on the same weekend. Too bad ND and Michigan play each other this week. One of them will be 0-3 though!!
There weren't any musings for the weekday games because I thought the lines were about right on the Thursday games. Turns out the WV/MD game was right on the line, and the TCU/AF ended up in an upset that I definitely would not have seen coming. A spread cover maybe, but an outright win by the Flyboys? No. Tomorrow's(tonight's) game between Oklahoma St and Troy leaves me confused, so that's a no play as well.
1. @Michigan St -10 V Pitt: This one started at 8, and has moved to 10, even 10 1/2 in some spots. I got it at 10. Pitt has teed it up so far this year against Eastern Michigan and Grambling. Not a murderer's row there. They've done ok, but they are starting an all Freshman backfield. Now they have to go on the road to face MSU who are coming off a clunker performance against BG. Are you going to tell me that a Wanny tutored freshman QB/RB combo with no weapons in the passing game is going to have any success at all in a hostile environment? If you are telling me that, I must insist on looking at your "papers". Last year, MSU(under John L Smith mind you) waltzed into Heinz Field and beat Wanny into submission. "AAAAAP, we didn't make many plays from a stopping the run standpoint..AAAAAPPPP!!!!!" That was a veteran Pitt team with Palko at QB, and it was a bunch of lazy ass quitters for MSU coached by a basket case. MSU piled up 335 yards rushing at a 7.0 clip in their house. Now Pitt comes to MSU, who is now better coached and not a bunch of lazy asses. This should be about a 34-13 type game.
2. @East Carolina +1 v Southern Miss: Another tale of past results being a good indication of the future. Last year ECU went down to Hattiesburg, a definite uncomfortable place to play, and completely stuffed everything USM tried to do on offense. They outgained them by more than 100 yards, held them to a total of 180 yard and out first-downed them 20-7. Due to some bad luck, they had to go to OT to pull out the W, but they managed it. The entire front 7 for ECU returns this year to wreak more havoc, and they appear to have settled in,having stonewalled Va Tech for 3 1/2 quarters two weeks ago. Offensively, they aren't as good as last year, but in their only home game last week, QB Patrick Pinckney dropped 400+ passing yards on North Carolina. They should be able to score on USM at home, and if history is any indication, USM will have all kinds of difficulty moving the ball. Hell, their QB Jeremy Young only completed 11 of 24 against Tennessee Martin for crying out loud. We're not talking about a juggernaut here.
3. @Alabama -3 1/2 V Arkansas: Last year Bama went down to Fayetteville to take on the Hogs in what turned out to be a dream season for Houston Nutt and co. In that game, Bama outgained Arkansas by more than 100 yards and lost on a missed XP in overtime after a fumble return by Ark sent it to OT. Darren McFadden had 113 yards on 27 carries, a pedestrian effort by his previous body of work. This year,it won't be a dream season for Arkansas, and the game moves to Tuscaloosa in El Diablo's first BIG home game as Bama coach. The Tide gets to trade in Shula for the Devil himself, a true upgrade if there ever was one. I'm guessing the Lord of Darkness can probably figure out that stopping the Hogs run game is necessary, so I'm thinking he'll outwit Houston Nutt and get that done. That leaves Arkansas with their hopes pinned on.....the very flaccid Casey Dick, rendered even more flaccid than usual with the absence of playmaking receiver Marcus Monk. If Bama can get the better of the Hogs on the road with Corky Shula calling the shots, they certainly can do so at home with Mr Satan, I mean Saban at the helm.
4. Houston -15 1/2 @Tulane: The knock on new Tulane coach Bob Toledo when he was at UCLA was that he would just as soon drop a duece in an overturned port o let than spend any time working on his team's defensive game plan. Well, when one peruses last week's box scores and notices that noted mastermind Sly Croom mixed on his defense to the tune of 482 yards, it appears that nothing has changed. I happen to think that Art Briles is one of the better offensive minds in the game, as his 575 yard output at Oregon with a rookie QB would attest. The Cougars will put up points at will in this one..many more than Tulane can hang with.
5. @North Carolina -3 V Virginia: Al Groh cannot cover a spread as a road dog to save his hooded sweatshirt. Virginia has no offense to speak of, and on the road, they are prone to give up points as well. UNC is not good, but believe it or not have given up less than 2 yards per carry on defense so far this year. That means Virginia will probably have to pass to be successful. Not happening. UNC has been able to move the ball thus far..having given ECU's solid D all it could hanle on the road last week.
6. Tennessee +7 1/2 @ Florida: This be risky, based on Florida's results so far, but there has been a MAJOR difference in competition between these teams so far. At Cal, UT actually impressed me on offense. Ainge seems to put the ball where it needs to be all the time, and Florida lost just about everyone from their stud defense last year. UT will definitely provide a worthy test for the Gators. UT will have it's complement of running backs back this week, and Florida is due to struggle against a real squad. It's not going to be all daisies and butterflies for Urban Meyer forever.
7. Texas Tech -28 @Rice: Rice is a mess, especially in their pass defense.To wit: Baylor and feeble QB Blake SZymanski lit up Rice for 400+ passing yards last week in a game that was over by the end of the 1st Q. Let's also note that comparing the Baylor passing game to Mike Leach's crew in Lubbock is like comparing an i-phone to a couple of tomato cans strung together . TT can score as much as they want in this one, and Leach is known to pile up 70+ if the modd strikes.
8. @Kansas -24 V Toledo: There's no truth to the rumor that Kansas will be playing Bella Vita Nursing Home next week. It just seems like they play all patsies...This week they get a shot to atone for the debacle that happened in Toledo last year, where KU outgained the Rockets by more than 200 yards and held Toledo to zero 2nd half first downs, only to come up short. They absolutely destroyed Central Michigan 52-7 in week one, who subsequently knocked around Toledo this week 52-21. Toledo plays no D at all, and they have a QB who throws the ball like a shot put. The last time these teams played in Lawrence, KU won 63-14. This KU team is better than that one, and that Toledo squad had Bruce Gradkowski. I think KU will be motivated enough atoning for last year's debacle(which kept them out of a bowl) that they'll cover the 24.
9 @Syracuse +12 v Illinois: I don't give a shit if Illinois is playing a D-3 squad, they cannot be trusted as a favorite. I'll personally be ecstatic if Illinois wins any game against a D-1 opponent on the road, let alone covers 12. Syracuse won in Champaign last year, despite getting outgained by a ton. I'll be honest, until this team learns how to win, they could outgain their opponent 950-75, and I still think they'd figure out a way to lose. Some D lineman will catch a twice tipped pass and rumble 98 yards for a score or a wide receiver will pick up a running back's fumble in the middle of a pile and take it 60 yards for a TD, (that actually happened in last year's game with these teams)or Illinois' kicker will shank a FG right into a Syracuse guy's facemask, and he'll take it to the house...something like that. At the same time, Illinois will gain 625 yards on offense and score 13 points. I will not back Illinois as a faviorite, even against someone as dreadful as Syracuse. And that team is dreadful, ghastly, stinking, you name it.
10: Ohio St -3 1/2 @Washington: Just about every pundit I've seen is on Washington in this one. I really can't see why. Sure they ran over a feeble Syracuse team in week one and beat Boise in week 2, but that doesn't tell the story. Boise outgained UW in the game, and completely shut them down in the last 2 1/2 quarters of that game. 5 punts and one INT in their last 6 possessions. Boise made 5 trips to the red zone in that span and ended with 2 picks, a blocked FG, a made FG, and were stopped on downs. We're not talking about an offensive juggernaut with Washington here. They are now facing a big boy defense. Ohio St hasn't given up anhything, and there are many reports that Tressel has kept his offense close to the vest so far. They're starting a new QB in his first road game, but Boeckman has been capable and he faces a defense that can be pushed around. I'll be really surprised if the Huskies get much if anything going on offense.
11. BC +7 @Georgia Tech: It sits at 6 1/2 now, but it has been 7, and the late money will probably push it back to 7 at game time. I'll be playing it regardless probably. These teams are so evenly matched that any significant points are attractive here. Ga Tech has looked great, but any team would have handled Notre Dame the way Demetruis Jones handed them 4 possessions in ND territory like that. Even against ND's wet napkin defense, Ga Tech had to settle for field goals in the first half because of their complete inability to make a 3rd down. They rely a lot on their running game, but BC has all but one of their front 7 back. Matt Ryan looks like he is going to put up points on just about everyone this year, and Ga Tech has been very difficult to trust when the the going gets good.
12. @Colorado +4 v Florida St: At this point, I just don't think Florida St should be favored on the road against any competant BCS club. This team just refuses to be efficient on offense, yet will continue to get everyone's best shot because of who they are. So far this year, even their defense hasn't looked all that great, as both Clemson (with a rookie QB) and UAB threw it effectively on them. Colorado is not great, and they got clubbed by Arizona St last week, but a lot of people will this year. They finally have a QB who can throw it effectively, and they have been scrappy on defense the last couple of years, especially at home. FSU just struggled mightily with UAB at home. UAB is really bad, as Michigan St showed us in week one. FSU has done nothing to indicate that they should be favored here.
Others: I think Todd Graham at Tulsa is a really good coach. He took Rice to a bowl last year, and look at what's happening to them now. Tulsa has experience on both sides of the ball and a veteran QB, and they play well at home. They're catching 6 1/2 at home against BYU, who is in a bit of a letdown spot..i like it....Idaho is getting 25 at WAZZOU. They actually looked ok at USC in the opener. Not that there's much you can take from that, but their RB ran it for 100 yards on 22 carries and defensively they picked off 2 passes and held their own. They travel the short trip to Pullman, and WSU has USC on deck. Robb Akey, the coach at Idaho was the Cougs' d coordinator for the past 7 years, so Doba probably won't run it up on him....FAU gets 10 in Miami from Minnesota. Historically Minny has been bad on the road, and this year they were a sniff away from being 0-2 at home against a couple of MAC squads. FAU looked good in their opener..I don't think the Gophers should be laying DD to anyone on the road at this point. I'd really like it if it was at FAU's stadium, but it's in Joe Robbie or whatever they call it now....I also think Indiana will handle Akron. Indiana is underrated offensively, and Akron can't move the ball to save their lives. That's good for Indiana, because they haven't proven anything on defense yet. They have to cover 13. I think they'll manage that. After a scare at La Tech, I think Hawaii will lay the wood on UNLV this week. Both teams aren't as good/bad as they showed last week. UNLV matched up well with a sleepwalking Wisconsin team. The'Bows will be motivated after their clunker last week, and the Rebs don't have the offense to stay within 17.....I'll also be taking a shot with New Mexico against an overrated Arizona team laying 10. The best game of the week to watch will probably be Louisville and Kentucky, but with that spread down to 5, I have no play on it. Mike Cassity scares the crap out of me as a D coordinator against an explosive offense. Too bad that game doesn't appear to be on TV. Someone should be horsewhipped for that. Good luck this week!!!!
I also have to give a mea culpa in regards to that South Carolina game. I am completely ashamed of myself for not sticking to my guns and going with the Cocks on that one. When it opened at 5 1/2, I was seriously looking at South Carolina, But then the line moved all the way to 3 by kickoff, and I changed my tune completely, surmising that a win outright at this juncture was unlikely. Maybe so, but at the very least, that should have been a no play. At no time should I go from favoring one side to favoring the other enough to include it as a numbered musing. It should be impossible to have such a change of opinion based on only 2 points of line movement.I will not have that happen again. Ugh, I'm still kicking myself on that one.
One the brightside, though, my prayers were answered. After a near miss last week, I got to see Lard Ass, Dickface Cocksuckerville and Douche Bag all lose on the same weekend. Too bad ND and Michigan play each other this week. One of them will be 0-3 though!!
There weren't any musings for the weekday games because I thought the lines were about right on the Thursday games. Turns out the WV/MD game was right on the line, and the TCU/AF ended up in an upset that I definitely would not have seen coming. A spread cover maybe, but an outright win by the Flyboys? No. Tomorrow's(tonight's) game between Oklahoma St and Troy leaves me confused, so that's a no play as well.
1. @Michigan St -10 V Pitt: This one started at 8, and has moved to 10, even 10 1/2 in some spots. I got it at 10. Pitt has teed it up so far this year against Eastern Michigan and Grambling. Not a murderer's row there. They've done ok, but they are starting an all Freshman backfield. Now they have to go on the road to face MSU who are coming off a clunker performance against BG. Are you going to tell me that a Wanny tutored freshman QB/RB combo with no weapons in the passing game is going to have any success at all in a hostile environment? If you are telling me that, I must insist on looking at your "papers". Last year, MSU(under John L Smith mind you) waltzed into Heinz Field and beat Wanny into submission. "AAAAAP, we didn't make many plays from a stopping the run standpoint..AAAAAPPPP!!!!!" That was a veteran Pitt team with Palko at QB, and it was a bunch of lazy ass quitters for MSU coached by a basket case. MSU piled up 335 yards rushing at a 7.0 clip in their house. Now Pitt comes to MSU, who is now better coached and not a bunch of lazy asses. This should be about a 34-13 type game.
2. @East Carolina +1 v Southern Miss: Another tale of past results being a good indication of the future. Last year ECU went down to Hattiesburg, a definite uncomfortable place to play, and completely stuffed everything USM tried to do on offense. They outgained them by more than 100 yards, held them to a total of 180 yard and out first-downed them 20-7. Due to some bad luck, they had to go to OT to pull out the W, but they managed it. The entire front 7 for ECU returns this year to wreak more havoc, and they appear to have settled in,having stonewalled Va Tech for 3 1/2 quarters two weeks ago. Offensively, they aren't as good as last year, but in their only home game last week, QB Patrick Pinckney dropped 400+ passing yards on North Carolina. They should be able to score on USM at home, and if history is any indication, USM will have all kinds of difficulty moving the ball. Hell, their QB Jeremy Young only completed 11 of 24 against Tennessee Martin for crying out loud. We're not talking about a juggernaut here.
3. @Alabama -3 1/2 V Arkansas: Last year Bama went down to Fayetteville to take on the Hogs in what turned out to be a dream season for Houston Nutt and co. In that game, Bama outgained Arkansas by more than 100 yards and lost on a missed XP in overtime after a fumble return by Ark sent it to OT. Darren McFadden had 113 yards on 27 carries, a pedestrian effort by his previous body of work. This year,it won't be a dream season for Arkansas, and the game moves to Tuscaloosa in El Diablo's first BIG home game as Bama coach. The Tide gets to trade in Shula for the Devil himself, a true upgrade if there ever was one. I'm guessing the Lord of Darkness can probably figure out that stopping the Hogs run game is necessary, so I'm thinking he'll outwit Houston Nutt and get that done. That leaves Arkansas with their hopes pinned on.....the very flaccid Casey Dick, rendered even more flaccid than usual with the absence of playmaking receiver Marcus Monk. If Bama can get the better of the Hogs on the road with Corky Shula calling the shots, they certainly can do so at home with Mr Satan, I mean Saban at the helm.
4. Houston -15 1/2 @Tulane: The knock on new Tulane coach Bob Toledo when he was at UCLA was that he would just as soon drop a duece in an overturned port o let than spend any time working on his team's defensive game plan. Well, when one peruses last week's box scores and notices that noted mastermind Sly Croom mixed on his defense to the tune of 482 yards, it appears that nothing has changed. I happen to think that Art Briles is one of the better offensive minds in the game, as his 575 yard output at Oregon with a rookie QB would attest. The Cougars will put up points at will in this one..many more than Tulane can hang with.
5. @North Carolina -3 V Virginia: Al Groh cannot cover a spread as a road dog to save his hooded sweatshirt. Virginia has no offense to speak of, and on the road, they are prone to give up points as well. UNC is not good, but believe it or not have given up less than 2 yards per carry on defense so far this year. That means Virginia will probably have to pass to be successful. Not happening. UNC has been able to move the ball thus far..having given ECU's solid D all it could hanle on the road last week.
6. Tennessee +7 1/2 @ Florida: This be risky, based on Florida's results so far, but there has been a MAJOR difference in competition between these teams so far. At Cal, UT actually impressed me on offense. Ainge seems to put the ball where it needs to be all the time, and Florida lost just about everyone from their stud defense last year. UT will definitely provide a worthy test for the Gators. UT will have it's complement of running backs back this week, and Florida is due to struggle against a real squad. It's not going to be all daisies and butterflies for Urban Meyer forever.
7. Texas Tech -28 @Rice: Rice is a mess, especially in their pass defense.To wit: Baylor and feeble QB Blake SZymanski lit up Rice for 400+ passing yards last week in a game that was over by the end of the 1st Q. Let's also note that comparing the Baylor passing game to Mike Leach's crew in Lubbock is like comparing an i-phone to a couple of tomato cans strung together . TT can score as much as they want in this one, and Leach is known to pile up 70+ if the modd strikes.
8. @Kansas -24 V Toledo: There's no truth to the rumor that Kansas will be playing Bella Vita Nursing Home next week. It just seems like they play all patsies...This week they get a shot to atone for the debacle that happened in Toledo last year, where KU outgained the Rockets by more than 200 yards and held Toledo to zero 2nd half first downs, only to come up short. They absolutely destroyed Central Michigan 52-7 in week one, who subsequently knocked around Toledo this week 52-21. Toledo plays no D at all, and they have a QB who throws the ball like a shot put. The last time these teams played in Lawrence, KU won 63-14. This KU team is better than that one, and that Toledo squad had Bruce Gradkowski. I think KU will be motivated enough atoning for last year's debacle(which kept them out of a bowl) that they'll cover the 24.
9 @Syracuse +12 v Illinois: I don't give a shit if Illinois is playing a D-3 squad, they cannot be trusted as a favorite. I'll personally be ecstatic if Illinois wins any game against a D-1 opponent on the road, let alone covers 12. Syracuse won in Champaign last year, despite getting outgained by a ton. I'll be honest, until this team learns how to win, they could outgain their opponent 950-75, and I still think they'd figure out a way to lose. Some D lineman will catch a twice tipped pass and rumble 98 yards for a score or a wide receiver will pick up a running back's fumble in the middle of a pile and take it 60 yards for a TD, (that actually happened in last year's game with these teams)or Illinois' kicker will shank a FG right into a Syracuse guy's facemask, and he'll take it to the house...something like that. At the same time, Illinois will gain 625 yards on offense and score 13 points. I will not back Illinois as a faviorite, even against someone as dreadful as Syracuse. And that team is dreadful, ghastly, stinking, you name it.
10: Ohio St -3 1/2 @Washington: Just about every pundit I've seen is on Washington in this one. I really can't see why. Sure they ran over a feeble Syracuse team in week one and beat Boise in week 2, but that doesn't tell the story. Boise outgained UW in the game, and completely shut them down in the last 2 1/2 quarters of that game. 5 punts and one INT in their last 6 possessions. Boise made 5 trips to the red zone in that span and ended with 2 picks, a blocked FG, a made FG, and were stopped on downs. We're not talking about an offensive juggernaut with Washington here. They are now facing a big boy defense. Ohio St hasn't given up anhything, and there are many reports that Tressel has kept his offense close to the vest so far. They're starting a new QB in his first road game, but Boeckman has been capable and he faces a defense that can be pushed around. I'll be really surprised if the Huskies get much if anything going on offense.
11. BC +7 @Georgia Tech: It sits at 6 1/2 now, but it has been 7, and the late money will probably push it back to 7 at game time. I'll be playing it regardless probably. These teams are so evenly matched that any significant points are attractive here. Ga Tech has looked great, but any team would have handled Notre Dame the way Demetruis Jones handed them 4 possessions in ND territory like that. Even against ND's wet napkin defense, Ga Tech had to settle for field goals in the first half because of their complete inability to make a 3rd down. They rely a lot on their running game, but BC has all but one of their front 7 back. Matt Ryan looks like he is going to put up points on just about everyone this year, and Ga Tech has been very difficult to trust when the the going gets good.
12. @Colorado +4 v Florida St: At this point, I just don't think Florida St should be favored on the road against any competant BCS club. This team just refuses to be efficient on offense, yet will continue to get everyone's best shot because of who they are. So far this year, even their defense hasn't looked all that great, as both Clemson (with a rookie QB) and UAB threw it effectively on them. Colorado is not great, and they got clubbed by Arizona St last week, but a lot of people will this year. They finally have a QB who can throw it effectively, and they have been scrappy on defense the last couple of years, especially at home. FSU just struggled mightily with UAB at home. UAB is really bad, as Michigan St showed us in week one. FSU has done nothing to indicate that they should be favored here.
Others: I think Todd Graham at Tulsa is a really good coach. He took Rice to a bowl last year, and look at what's happening to them now. Tulsa has experience on both sides of the ball and a veteran QB, and they play well at home. They're catching 6 1/2 at home against BYU, who is in a bit of a letdown spot..i like it....Idaho is getting 25 at WAZZOU. They actually looked ok at USC in the opener. Not that there's much you can take from that, but their RB ran it for 100 yards on 22 carries and defensively they picked off 2 passes and held their own. They travel the short trip to Pullman, and WSU has USC on deck. Robb Akey, the coach at Idaho was the Cougs' d coordinator for the past 7 years, so Doba probably won't run it up on him....FAU gets 10 in Miami from Minnesota. Historically Minny has been bad on the road, and this year they were a sniff away from being 0-2 at home against a couple of MAC squads. FAU looked good in their opener..I don't think the Gophers should be laying DD to anyone on the road at this point. I'd really like it if it was at FAU's stadium, but it's in Joe Robbie or whatever they call it now....I also think Indiana will handle Akron. Indiana is underrated offensively, and Akron can't move the ball to save their lives. That's good for Indiana, because they haven't proven anything on defense yet. They have to cover 13. I think they'll manage that. After a scare at La Tech, I think Hawaii will lay the wood on UNLV this week. Both teams aren't as good/bad as they showed last week. UNLV matched up well with a sleepwalking Wisconsin team. The'Bows will be motivated after their clunker last week, and the Rebs don't have the offense to stay within 17.....I'll also be taking a shot with New Mexico against an overrated Arizona team laying 10. The best game of the week to watch will probably be Louisville and Kentucky, but with that spread down to 5, I have no play on it. Mike Cassity scares the crap out of me as a D coordinator against an explosive offense. Too bad that game doesn't appear to be on TV. Someone should be horsewhipped for that. Good luck this week!!!!
Friday, September 7, 2007
Week 2 musings, contd
I'd like for someone to explain to me what on God's Green Earth just happened in Louisville tonight. MTSU gains a grand total of 217 yards on a glorified junior high squad, and then 4 days later waltzes into Papa John's stadium and drops 42 points and 554 yards? We all figured correctly that Louisville would be able to name the score, but who knew they didn't give a rat's ass that they'd give up 42 points against an opponent that would be overwlemed by the 1994 Marian Catholic Spartans. Oh well...there always risk in laying 40. Cincy came through though, so we went 1-1. Man, that's terrible. Hopefully Rutgers will get us going.
Did anyone notice that Lloyd Carr and the Miss Shit Can Wolverines lost to Appy St? Yeah, that happened, in case you didn't hear about it. Charlie Weis took a dumper as well, as predicted by the musings. If only that ethical and morally bankrupt jagoff Tommy Tuberville had lost to K St last week, I would have had the trifecta. It almost happened, but K State's QB was crippled, and their LT might as well have been crippled trying to keep Quentin Groves out of the backfield in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, K State's coach sat there with his thumb up his ass hoping his statue of a QB might somehow make something happen before Groves could sprint 7 yards to bury his helmet into Freeman's kidneys. Ever heard of keeping a back in to block? I was holding a juicy +500 ML ticket on that one. Oh well, there's always this week.
1. @Ohio St -28 1/2(better hurry) v Akron: Actually, who cares...it's over 28, and has been stationary pretty much all week. Ok, so here we have Akron, coming off several years of mediocrity, and off a home win against Army in what was a total taffy pull. They both slogged around for 3 hours, traded punts and an occasional score brought about by the other team's incompetence. It resulted in about a dead heat, but Akron pulled out a 22-14 win. Army came into that game not sure if it would get a first down, and probably wouldn't have if they played anyone worth a crap. Army ran it on the road against Akron, so you can bet the Buckeyes will have no problem. We all know about OSU's D, and Akron is breaking in 4 new OL and just came off a game in which they struggled to score on Army at home. This looks like a mismatch. Of course, laying the big number is always risky, just ask Pete last night. We all should have known that MTSU would morph from Sun Belt speed bag to a West Virginia/Texas Tech hybrid offensive juggernaut in 4 days, right?
2. @Oklahoma -10 1/2 v Miami: I'm seeing lots of people gobbling up the DD points and taking Miami in this one on principle. I have one question to ask these people: Have they ever seen Kirby Freeman play quarterback? For the uninitiated, it looks like bad. He reminds me of former NC State goofball Marcus Stone, who's primary skill was looking fly in his uniform. I spent my New Year's Eve last year throwing up on myself after putting my money in his hands against Nevada in the Blue Turf bowl needing to cover 3. Now he has to go to Oklahoma and face one of the top defenses in the nation, and certainly one of the top secondaries. Miami's MO will be to run it, but they haven't had an effective run game in years, having failed to crack 100 yards in 6 games last year, including games with Duke (26 carries 30 yards!!!!) and Fla Int'l (29 carries 90 yards)!!!!!!!! They have people back on the line, but I don't want people that get pushed around by Duke. Now Oklahoma on the road? I don't like their chances to score much here when the alterative if Freeman chucking it. Oklahoma is very underrated on offense, and although Miami has a solid D, Shannon will be matching wits with Stoops on the road. They will get the ball to their playmakers and score plenty. Bad, bad matchup for Miami here.
3. @Arkansas St +4 v Memphis: These two teams played last year in Memphis, and Arky St won on a Hail Mary as time expired. You might think it was a lucky victory, but the Indians(kudos for telling the NCAA to suck it on that issue) outgained Memphis by almost 100 in that game. They actually outgained their opponents on the year last year, which is rare for a Sun Belt team. Coming into the year, a kid on their team made news by predicting they would go undefeated, eliciting a smattering of guffaws from anyone who happened to notice. That tells me they have a confident bunch, and lo and behold they absolutely took it to Texas last week, outgaining them 397-340, stopping the run, haraasing Mc Coy...it was legit.(21-13 final). Now they get a rare home game against a team from a bigger conference than theirs, so they'll be jacked up. Memphis showed they are entirely capable of pissing away a game based on what they did against Ole Miss. So they are totally capable of losing this one.
4. West Virginia -24 @Marshall: Hate to lay the wood like this on the road in what some people call a rivalry game, but this looks like a mismatch. Marshall lost their best defensive player just before last week's game, and they trudged through the Miami game showing no ability to do anything. WVU looks like they have figured their defense out, especially against weaker squads, so I doubt Marshall will be putting up a lot of points, which is the exact opposite of what WV will do. It simply does not matter who they are playing, they will not be stopped. I tend to think they just torched a better defensive squad in WMU, putting up 62. In order to cover this Marshall will probably have to score at least 24. That's unlikely, but even if they do, WVU might drop 60 again and make it a moot point.
5. South Florida +7 @Auburn: Last week USF started slow, much like they did last year. Auburn, as we should know by now, is not very good. I don't happen to think that K st is worth a shit, when it comes right down to it, and they should have beaten them last week, outgaining them and holding them under 300 total yards. That marks about the 900th consecutive time that's happened to Auburn. USF has a good Qb with experience, and this squad has won in environments like this before. I tend to think they are better than K State, and almost certainly better coached than K st is at this point. I'll be rooting for a win outright, but the TD helper is nice.
6. @SMU -17 1/2 v North Texas: North Texas is so bad it's not even funny. Oklahoma was practically trying not to score, but still ended up racking up 79 on them. SMU is coming off a painful shellacking on their home field on national TV at the hands of Texas Tech, so they will be eager play schoolyard bully on the glorified high school team that N Texas is. Throw in the fact that NT somehow beat SMU last year(I think SMU QB Justin Willis was suspended for that game) and SMU even has revenge on it's mind. This one won't be pretty.
7. @UCLA -7 V BYU: BYU looked good facing Arizona at home last week, but the tables will be turned in this one. I think they will really struggle to score on the road with UCLA, and they won't have an inept offense breaking in a new system when they travel to Pasadena. Ben Olson was spectacular last week on the road at Stanford, which is not saying much, but I don't think BYU will have much success either, despite the fact that they are a solid D. 7 isn't enough here, I think UCLA wins comfortably.
8. Missouri -5 1/2 @ Ole Miss: Nobody was all that impressed with Mizzou's D last week against Illinois, since the Illini put up 34 on them with their backup QB. however, one thing Missouri did do was shut down Illinois's running game, which was tops in the Big Ten last year(believe it or not). In order for Ole Miss to have any success on offense, they will need to run it, and I have to believe that Illinois has a better running game than Ole Miss. Ole Miss got a win last week, but Memphis all but handed it to them, and outgained them badly. Martin Hankins completed 40 passes against them. What do you think Chase Daniel will do? In order to hang in this one, they will have to shut down one of the top offenses in the country or put up 24 or so points. I don't think either is likely. There is risk in backing Gary Pinkel(moron) as a road favorite, but they should roll here.
9. @Georgia -3 1/2 v South Carolina: This spread keeps moving down. As you know, I like South Carolina, but Georgia looks to be much improved on offense. Asking So carolina to go in there and basically play Georgia to a standstill in Blake Mitchell's first game of the year is asking a lot. They really struggled stopping the run last week as well. I can see Mitchell laying an egg here. I can see hem turning it aroundd later and still having a great year, but this doesn't appear to be a good matchup for them at this juncture.
10 @Baylor -6 1/2 V Rice: Too bad for Rice that they are breaking in yet another new coach, and the David Bailiff era started with a loss to Nicholls St. To make matters worse, in the post game press conference, Bailiff basically just made a bunch of excuses. That's never a good sign, as the coach is already covering for his inability to prepare his team. Guy Morriss knows what he's doing at Baylor despite the talent thing. If they concentrate on stopping Chase Clement and Jarrett Dillard, they should have no problem. Rice might be in serious trouble this year.
Others: A lot this week....I like La La believe it or not getting 2 at home against Ohio. LA La ran it down South carolina's throat last week, and have a tricky offensive sceme. Ohio has a weak offense..I think they'll have their hands full... I'ts a lot of points, but I'm not sure how ND is going to score off of Penn St's D. We all know that ND's D is porous so 17 1/2 might not be too much in this one. It could be a 41-17 type game, a reverse of last year...There are two teams with classic look-ahead situations that shape up well. Nebraska is coming off a game where they walked on water and has USC on deck, and they are playing Wake on the road, who is coming off a poor performance in what shapes up to be perhaps their marquee home game of the year. Riley Skinner probably won't play, but that offense doesn't rely a ton on the QB and their backup looked ok against BC last week. The spread is up to 8, and we all know what Wake can do as a dog. The second one is Kentucky -12 1/2 v Kent. Kentucky has Louisville coming to Lexington next week, and they just got done watching Louisville get torched, so they are probably licking their chops. However, before they get a crack at Louisville they have Kent to contend with, who is coming off a win on the road against a BCS opponent. (weak one in Iowa St, but nontheless...)Big trap situation for both....So Miss goes to Knoxville getting only 10 1/2. In the past, So Miss has been a solid squad, but they struggled as sizable dogs last year with this bunch. Tennessee showed me something at cal by hanging in there in a firestorm. They should be able to handle this amount if they have a good defensive game.....That's it for now. Good luck to whoever drops a dime.
Did anyone notice that Lloyd Carr and the Miss Shit Can Wolverines lost to Appy St? Yeah, that happened, in case you didn't hear about it. Charlie Weis took a dumper as well, as predicted by the musings. If only that ethical and morally bankrupt jagoff Tommy Tuberville had lost to K St last week, I would have had the trifecta. It almost happened, but K State's QB was crippled, and their LT might as well have been crippled trying to keep Quentin Groves out of the backfield in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, K State's coach sat there with his thumb up his ass hoping his statue of a QB might somehow make something happen before Groves could sprint 7 yards to bury his helmet into Freeman's kidneys. Ever heard of keeping a back in to block? I was holding a juicy +500 ML ticket on that one. Oh well, there's always this week.
1. @Ohio St -28 1/2(better hurry) v Akron: Actually, who cares...it's over 28, and has been stationary pretty much all week. Ok, so here we have Akron, coming off several years of mediocrity, and off a home win against Army in what was a total taffy pull. They both slogged around for 3 hours, traded punts and an occasional score brought about by the other team's incompetence. It resulted in about a dead heat, but Akron pulled out a 22-14 win. Army came into that game not sure if it would get a first down, and probably wouldn't have if they played anyone worth a crap. Army ran it on the road against Akron, so you can bet the Buckeyes will have no problem. We all know about OSU's D, and Akron is breaking in 4 new OL and just came off a game in which they struggled to score on Army at home. This looks like a mismatch. Of course, laying the big number is always risky, just ask Pete last night. We all should have known that MTSU would morph from Sun Belt speed bag to a West Virginia/Texas Tech hybrid offensive juggernaut in 4 days, right?
2. @Oklahoma -10 1/2 v Miami: I'm seeing lots of people gobbling up the DD points and taking Miami in this one on principle. I have one question to ask these people: Have they ever seen Kirby Freeman play quarterback? For the uninitiated, it looks like bad. He reminds me of former NC State goofball Marcus Stone, who's primary skill was looking fly in his uniform. I spent my New Year's Eve last year throwing up on myself after putting my money in his hands against Nevada in the Blue Turf bowl needing to cover 3. Now he has to go to Oklahoma and face one of the top defenses in the nation, and certainly one of the top secondaries. Miami's MO will be to run it, but they haven't had an effective run game in years, having failed to crack 100 yards in 6 games last year, including games with Duke (26 carries 30 yards!!!!) and Fla Int'l (29 carries 90 yards)!!!!!!!! They have people back on the line, but I don't want people that get pushed around by Duke. Now Oklahoma on the road? I don't like their chances to score much here when the alterative if Freeman chucking it. Oklahoma is very underrated on offense, and although Miami has a solid D, Shannon will be matching wits with Stoops on the road. They will get the ball to their playmakers and score plenty. Bad, bad matchup for Miami here.
3. @Arkansas St +4 v Memphis: These two teams played last year in Memphis, and Arky St won on a Hail Mary as time expired. You might think it was a lucky victory, but the Indians(kudos for telling the NCAA to suck it on that issue) outgained Memphis by almost 100 in that game. They actually outgained their opponents on the year last year, which is rare for a Sun Belt team. Coming into the year, a kid on their team made news by predicting they would go undefeated, eliciting a smattering of guffaws from anyone who happened to notice. That tells me they have a confident bunch, and lo and behold they absolutely took it to Texas last week, outgaining them 397-340, stopping the run, haraasing Mc Coy...it was legit.(21-13 final). Now they get a rare home game against a team from a bigger conference than theirs, so they'll be jacked up. Memphis showed they are entirely capable of pissing away a game based on what they did against Ole Miss. So they are totally capable of losing this one.
4. West Virginia -24 @Marshall: Hate to lay the wood like this on the road in what some people call a rivalry game, but this looks like a mismatch. Marshall lost their best defensive player just before last week's game, and they trudged through the Miami game showing no ability to do anything. WVU looks like they have figured their defense out, especially against weaker squads, so I doubt Marshall will be putting up a lot of points, which is the exact opposite of what WV will do. It simply does not matter who they are playing, they will not be stopped. I tend to think they just torched a better defensive squad in WMU, putting up 62. In order to cover this Marshall will probably have to score at least 24. That's unlikely, but even if they do, WVU might drop 60 again and make it a moot point.
5. South Florida +7 @Auburn: Last week USF started slow, much like they did last year. Auburn, as we should know by now, is not very good. I don't happen to think that K st is worth a shit, when it comes right down to it, and they should have beaten them last week, outgaining them and holding them under 300 total yards. That marks about the 900th consecutive time that's happened to Auburn. USF has a good Qb with experience, and this squad has won in environments like this before. I tend to think they are better than K State, and almost certainly better coached than K st is at this point. I'll be rooting for a win outright, but the TD helper is nice.
6. @SMU -17 1/2 v North Texas: North Texas is so bad it's not even funny. Oklahoma was practically trying not to score, but still ended up racking up 79 on them. SMU is coming off a painful shellacking on their home field on national TV at the hands of Texas Tech, so they will be eager play schoolyard bully on the glorified high school team that N Texas is. Throw in the fact that NT somehow beat SMU last year(I think SMU QB Justin Willis was suspended for that game) and SMU even has revenge on it's mind. This one won't be pretty.
7. @UCLA -7 V BYU: BYU looked good facing Arizona at home last week, but the tables will be turned in this one. I think they will really struggle to score on the road with UCLA, and they won't have an inept offense breaking in a new system when they travel to Pasadena. Ben Olson was spectacular last week on the road at Stanford, which is not saying much, but I don't think BYU will have much success either, despite the fact that they are a solid D. 7 isn't enough here, I think UCLA wins comfortably.
8. Missouri -5 1/2 @ Ole Miss: Nobody was all that impressed with Mizzou's D last week against Illinois, since the Illini put up 34 on them with their backup QB. however, one thing Missouri did do was shut down Illinois's running game, which was tops in the Big Ten last year(believe it or not). In order for Ole Miss to have any success on offense, they will need to run it, and I have to believe that Illinois has a better running game than Ole Miss. Ole Miss got a win last week, but Memphis all but handed it to them, and outgained them badly. Martin Hankins completed 40 passes against them. What do you think Chase Daniel will do? In order to hang in this one, they will have to shut down one of the top offenses in the country or put up 24 or so points. I don't think either is likely. There is risk in backing Gary Pinkel(moron) as a road favorite, but they should roll here.
9. @Georgia -3 1/2 v South Carolina: This spread keeps moving down. As you know, I like South Carolina, but Georgia looks to be much improved on offense. Asking So carolina to go in there and basically play Georgia to a standstill in Blake Mitchell's first game of the year is asking a lot. They really struggled stopping the run last week as well. I can see Mitchell laying an egg here. I can see hem turning it aroundd later and still having a great year, but this doesn't appear to be a good matchup for them at this juncture.
10 @Baylor -6 1/2 V Rice: Too bad for Rice that they are breaking in yet another new coach, and the David Bailiff era started with a loss to Nicholls St. To make matters worse, in the post game press conference, Bailiff basically just made a bunch of excuses. That's never a good sign, as the coach is already covering for his inability to prepare his team. Guy Morriss knows what he's doing at Baylor despite the talent thing. If they concentrate on stopping Chase Clement and Jarrett Dillard, they should have no problem. Rice might be in serious trouble this year.
Others: A lot this week....I like La La believe it or not getting 2 at home against Ohio. LA La ran it down South carolina's throat last week, and have a tricky offensive sceme. Ohio has a weak offense..I think they'll have their hands full... I'ts a lot of points, but I'm not sure how ND is going to score off of Penn St's D. We all know that ND's D is porous so 17 1/2 might not be too much in this one. It could be a 41-17 type game, a reverse of last year...There are two teams with classic look-ahead situations that shape up well. Nebraska is coming off a game where they walked on water and has USC on deck, and they are playing Wake on the road, who is coming off a poor performance in what shapes up to be perhaps their marquee home game of the year. Riley Skinner probably won't play, but that offense doesn't rely a ton on the QB and their backup looked ok against BC last week. The spread is up to 8, and we all know what Wake can do as a dog. The second one is Kentucky -12 1/2 v Kent. Kentucky has Louisville coming to Lexington next week, and they just got done watching Louisville get torched, so they are probably licking their chops. However, before they get a crack at Louisville they have Kent to contend with, who is coming off a win on the road against a BCS opponent. (weak one in Iowa St, but nontheless...)Big trap situation for both....So Miss goes to Knoxville getting only 10 1/2. In the past, So Miss has been a solid squad, but they struggled as sizable dogs last year with this bunch. Tennessee showed me something at cal by hanging in there in a firestorm. They should be able to handle this amount if they have a good defensive game.....That's it for now. Good luck to whoever drops a dime.
Thursday, September 6, 2007
Wee 2 Musings, Weeknight edition
Well, it certainly was a nice week last week. Hopefully, everyone took a look at the Week 1 musings, printed them out, got on a plane for vegas, took out the max your ATM card can handle and proceeded to bring the thunder to the sportsbook of your choice. 11-1 on the numbered musings, 4-2 on the others receiving votes, though I ended up playing Georgia after all, since Matchbook was begging me to do it, giving out -6 1/2 at +111. Actually, the only loser was Utah, and their starting QB and starting RB had to get hurt in the 1st quarter in order for that one to lose. It was 7-0 when the injuries happened. (More on that later)
The full gamut will come later on, probably Friday, but I wanted to get out the games for tomorrow and Friday. There's three games total on those days, and wouldn't you know it, I have thoughts on all 3.
Thursday
1. @Louisville -39 v Middle Tennessee St:I the past 3 years, while at home, Louisville has broken 50 9 times. As a matter of fact, they've scored more than 60 6 times. They've done this against the likes of Rutgers, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Oregon St and TCU. Now they face MTSU, who last week against Florida Atlantic was trailing 24-0 in the 4th quarter, at that point having only made 5 first downs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC! Now Howard's bunch at FAU might be improved from last year, but that program is still miles and miles away from being anything other than cannon fodder for any substantial programs in D-1. MTSU played cannon fodder to FAU last week. What are they this week, nuclear fallout? Anthrax in the water supply? Scud missile residue? Louisville absolutely names the score in this one, and when Louisville has been in this position in the past, they're throwing in a couple of elbow drops off the top rope for good measure in the 4th quarter, even after the opponent is having convulsions. The public is all over this one, but for good reason for once.
2. @Cincinnati +3 1/2 v Oregon St: As I mentioned above, Oregon St handled Utah last Thursday night 24-7. You'd think it was all good for the Beavs, handling a solid MWC team in the opener, but they got lucky. Utah completely collapsed after their offensive leaders went down(go figure) and Oregon St cruised. However, their QB by committee arrangement was awful, completing far less than 50% of it's passes. The ended up ok becuase they ran it well with Yvensen Bernard who piled up 150 on the ground. In their first road game, they will need to run it at least as well this week, since they can't bank on getting another crack at a collection of backups. Enter Cincy, a team on the upswing. Last year, Cincy only gave up 106 yards rushing per game, and that includes games with Ohio St, Va Tech, Louisville and the ultimate stat skewer West Virginia. At home, they gave up 2.4, 2.6, 1.4, 1.9, 3.2, 2.0 and 2.4 per carry. 6 of their front 7 returns, so their strength will be stopping the run. New coach Brian Kelly has implemented a spread offense that worked like a charm last year at CMU, even with a true freshman at QB. They piled up 661 yards in their opener. Granted, it was against SE Mo St, but 600+ is 600+. I think if Cincy stops the run and makes Canfield and the other guy beat them, they have a great shot of winning this game as long as they don;t give up any ST TDs.
3. @Rutgers -15 1/2 V Navy: Bad spot for the Middies. When I first saw this line, I immediately thought about taking Navy, since it's always a smart move to gobble up DD points on a team that runs it at a good clip. However, Navy is very weak on the lines, and is not athletic in the secondary on D. Rutgers is really turning the corner offensively. We all know about Ray Rice and his ability to bludgeon people, but Teel and the passing game have made great strides. They have playmakers, especially Underwoodat receiver, and their D is stout. In last year's game in Anapolis, Navy's QB got hurt, so one might think that the game was an aberration, but it wasn't. Rutgers held Navy to 2.3 ypc, the only time all year that they didn't top 4ypc. Navy's D is weaker this year, and Rutgers offense is better. The game is in Piscataway instead of Anapolis. Rutgers drilled them 34-0 last year. Expect a similar result Friday night.
That's it for now, I' should have the remainder of the week at some point on Friday,
The full gamut will come later on, probably Friday, but I wanted to get out the games for tomorrow and Friday. There's three games total on those days, and wouldn't you know it, I have thoughts on all 3.
Thursday
1. @Louisville -39 v Middle Tennessee St:I the past 3 years, while at home, Louisville has broken 50 9 times. As a matter of fact, they've scored more than 60 6 times. They've done this against the likes of Rutgers, North Carolina, Cincinnati, Oregon St and TCU. Now they face MTSU, who last week against Florida Atlantic was trailing 24-0 in the 4th quarter, at that point having only made 5 first downs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC! Now Howard's bunch at FAU might be improved from last year, but that program is still miles and miles away from being anything other than cannon fodder for any substantial programs in D-1. MTSU played cannon fodder to FAU last week. What are they this week, nuclear fallout? Anthrax in the water supply? Scud missile residue? Louisville absolutely names the score in this one, and when Louisville has been in this position in the past, they're throwing in a couple of elbow drops off the top rope for good measure in the 4th quarter, even after the opponent is having convulsions. The public is all over this one, but for good reason for once.
2. @Cincinnati +3 1/2 v Oregon St: As I mentioned above, Oregon St handled Utah last Thursday night 24-7. You'd think it was all good for the Beavs, handling a solid MWC team in the opener, but they got lucky. Utah completely collapsed after their offensive leaders went down(go figure) and Oregon St cruised. However, their QB by committee arrangement was awful, completing far less than 50% of it's passes. The ended up ok becuase they ran it well with Yvensen Bernard who piled up 150 on the ground. In their first road game, they will need to run it at least as well this week, since they can't bank on getting another crack at a collection of backups. Enter Cincy, a team on the upswing. Last year, Cincy only gave up 106 yards rushing per game, and that includes games with Ohio St, Va Tech, Louisville and the ultimate stat skewer West Virginia. At home, they gave up 2.4, 2.6, 1.4, 1.9, 3.2, 2.0 and 2.4 per carry. 6 of their front 7 returns, so their strength will be stopping the run. New coach Brian Kelly has implemented a spread offense that worked like a charm last year at CMU, even with a true freshman at QB. They piled up 661 yards in their opener. Granted, it was against SE Mo St, but 600+ is 600+. I think if Cincy stops the run and makes Canfield and the other guy beat them, they have a great shot of winning this game as long as they don;t give up any ST TDs.
3. @Rutgers -15 1/2 V Navy: Bad spot for the Middies. When I first saw this line, I immediately thought about taking Navy, since it's always a smart move to gobble up DD points on a team that runs it at a good clip. However, Navy is very weak on the lines, and is not athletic in the secondary on D. Rutgers is really turning the corner offensively. We all know about Ray Rice and his ability to bludgeon people, but Teel and the passing game have made great strides. They have playmakers, especially Underwoodat receiver, and their D is stout. In last year's game in Anapolis, Navy's QB got hurt, so one might think that the game was an aberration, but it wasn't. Rutgers held Navy to 2.3 ypc, the only time all year that they didn't top 4ypc. Navy's D is weaker this year, and Rutgers offense is better. The game is in Piscataway instead of Anapolis. Rutgers drilled them 34-0 last year. Expect a similar result Friday night.
That's it for now, I' should have the remainder of the week at some point on Friday,
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)