Week 3 Musings

After an 8-4 week, the numbered musings are 19-5 for the year. That's a 79% clip. I guess you can make some money that way. Unfortunately, I wouldn't know because I got blistered in the pros trying to cash in on dog money lines. There were opportunities, but it was like a relay race of failure for all these dogs trying to win outright. Bears, Giants, Ravens, Cardinals. Bunch of fags, all of 'em.

I also have to give a mea culpa in regards to that South Carolina game. I am completely ashamed of myself for not sticking to my guns and going with the Cocks on that one. When it opened at 5 1/2, I was seriously looking at South Carolina, But then the line moved all the way to 3 by kickoff, and I changed my tune completely, surmising that a win outright at this juncture was unlikely. Maybe so, but at the very least, that should have been a no play. At no time should I go from favoring one side to favoring the other enough to include it as a numbered musing. It should be impossible to have such a change of opinion based on only 2 points of line movement.I will not have that happen again. Ugh, I'm still kicking myself on that one.

One the brightside, though, my prayers were answered. After a near miss last week, I got to see Lard Ass, Dickface Cocksuckerville and Douche Bag all lose on the same weekend. Too bad ND and Michigan play each other this week. One of them will be 0-3 though!!

There weren't any musings for the weekday games because I thought the lines were about right on the Thursday games. Turns out the WV/MD game was right on the line, and the TCU/AF ended up in an upset that I definitely would not have seen coming. A spread cover maybe, but an outright win by the Flyboys? No. Tomorrow's(tonight's) game between Oklahoma St and Troy leaves me confused, so that's a no play as well.

1. @Michigan St -10 V Pitt: This one started at 8, and has moved to 10, even 10 1/2 in some spots. I got it at 10. Pitt has teed it up so far this year against Eastern Michigan and Grambling. Not a murderer's row there. They've done ok, but they are starting an all Freshman backfield. Now they have to go on the road to face MSU who are coming off a clunker performance against BG. Are you going to tell me that a Wanny tutored freshman QB/RB combo with no weapons in the passing game is going to have any success at all in a hostile environment? If you are telling me that, I must insist on looking at your "papers". Last year, MSU(under John L Smith mind you) waltzed into Heinz Field and beat Wanny into submission. "AAAAAP, we didn't make many plays from a stopping the run standpoint..AAAAAPPPP!!!!!" That was a veteran Pitt team with Palko at QB, and it was a bunch of lazy ass quitters for MSU coached by a basket case. MSU piled up 335 yards rushing at a 7.0 clip in their house. Now Pitt comes to MSU, who is now better coached and not a bunch of lazy asses. This should be about a 34-13 type game.

2. @East Carolina +1 v Southern Miss: Another tale of past results being a good indication of the future. Last year ECU went down to Hattiesburg, a definite uncomfortable place to play, and completely stuffed everything USM tried to do on offense. They outgained them by more than 100 yards, held them to a total of 180 yard and out first-downed them 20-7. Due to some bad luck, they had to go to OT to pull out the W, but they managed it. The entire front 7 for ECU returns this year to wreak more havoc, and they appear to have settled in,having stonewalled Va Tech for 3 1/2 quarters two weeks ago. Offensively, they aren't as good as last year, but in their only home game last week, QB Patrick Pinckney dropped 400+ passing yards on North Carolina. They should be able to score on USM at home, and if history is any indication, USM will have all kinds of difficulty moving the ball. Hell, their QB Jeremy Young only completed 11 of 24 against Tennessee Martin for crying out loud. We're not talking about a juggernaut here.

3. @Alabama -3 1/2 V Arkansas: Last year Bama went down to Fayetteville to take on the Hogs in what turned out to be a dream season for Houston Nutt and co. In that game, Bama outgained Arkansas by more than 100 yards and lost on a missed XP in overtime after a fumble return by Ark sent it to OT. Darren McFadden had 113 yards on 27 carries, a pedestrian effort by his previous body of work. This year,it won't be a dream season for Arkansas, and the game moves to Tuscaloosa in El Diablo's first BIG home game as Bama coach. The Tide gets to trade in Shula for the Devil himself, a true upgrade if there ever was one. I'm guessing the Lord of Darkness can probably figure out that stopping the Hogs run game is necessary, so I'm thinking he'll outwit Houston Nutt and get that done. That leaves Arkansas with their hopes pinned on.....the very flaccid Casey Dick, rendered even more flaccid than usual with the absence of playmaking receiver Marcus Monk. If Bama can get the better of the Hogs on the road with Corky Shula calling the shots, they certainly can do so at home with Mr Satan, I mean Saban at the helm.

4. Houston -15 1/2 @Tulane: The knock on new Tulane coach Bob Toledo when he was at UCLA was that he would just as soon drop a duece in an overturned port o let than spend any time working on his team's defensive game plan. Well, when one peruses last week's box scores and notices that noted mastermind Sly Croom mixed on his defense to the tune of 482 yards, it appears that nothing has changed. I happen to think that Art Briles is one of the better offensive minds in the game, as his 575 yard output at Oregon with a rookie QB would attest. The Cougars will put up points at will in this one..many more than Tulane can hang with.

5. @North Carolina -3 V Virginia: Al Groh cannot cover a spread as a road dog to save his hooded sweatshirt. Virginia has no offense to speak of, and on the road, they are prone to give up points as well. UNC is not good, but believe it or not have given up less than 2 yards per carry on defense so far this year. That means Virginia will probably have to pass to be successful. Not happening. UNC has been able to move the ball thus far..having given ECU's solid D all it could hanle on the road last week.

6. Tennessee +7 1/2 @ Florida: This be risky, based on Florida's results so far, but there has been a MAJOR difference in competition between these teams so far. At Cal, UT actually impressed me on offense. Ainge seems to put the ball where it needs to be all the time, and Florida lost just about everyone from their stud defense last year. UT will definitely provide a worthy test for the Gators. UT will have it's complement of running backs back this week, and Florida is due to struggle against a real squad. It's not going to be all daisies and butterflies for Urban Meyer forever.

7. Texas Tech -28 @Rice: Rice is a mess, especially in their pass defense.To wit: Baylor and feeble QB Blake SZymanski lit up Rice for 400+ passing yards last week in a game that was over by the end of the 1st Q. Let's also note that comparing the Baylor passing game to Mike Leach's crew in Lubbock is like comparing an i-phone to a couple of tomato cans strung together . TT can score as much as they want in this one, and Leach is known to pile up 70+ if the modd strikes.

8. @Kansas -24 V Toledo: There's no truth to the rumor that Kansas will be playing Bella Vita Nursing Home next week. It just seems like they play all patsies...This week they get a shot to atone for the debacle that happened in Toledo last year, where KU outgained the Rockets by more than 200 yards and held Toledo to zero 2nd half first downs, only to come up short. They absolutely destroyed Central Michigan 52-7 in week one, who subsequently knocked around Toledo this week 52-21. Toledo plays no D at all, and they have a QB who throws the ball like a shot put. The last time these teams played in Lawrence, KU won 63-14. This KU team is better than that one, and that Toledo squad had Bruce Gradkowski. I think KU will be motivated enough atoning for last year's debacle(which kept them out of a bowl) that they'll cover the 24.

9 @Syracuse +12 v Illinois: I don't give a shit if Illinois is playing a D-3 squad, they cannot be trusted as a favorite. I'll personally be ecstatic if Illinois wins any game against a D-1 opponent on the road, let alone covers 12. Syracuse won in Champaign last year, despite getting outgained by a ton. I'll be honest, until this team learns how to win, they could outgain their opponent 950-75, and I still think they'd figure out a way to lose. Some D lineman will catch a twice tipped pass and rumble 98 yards for a score or a wide receiver will pick up a running back's fumble in the middle of a pile and take it 60 yards for a TD, (that actually happened in last year's game with these teams)or Illinois' kicker will shank a FG right into a Syracuse guy's facemask, and he'll take it to the house...something like that. At the same time, Illinois will gain 625 yards on offense and score 13 points. I will not back Illinois as a faviorite, even against someone as dreadful as Syracuse. And that team is dreadful, ghastly, stinking, you name it.

10: Ohio St -3 1/2 @Washington: Just about every pundit I've seen is on Washington in this one. I really can't see why. Sure they ran over a feeble Syracuse team in week one and beat Boise in week 2, but that doesn't tell the story. Boise outgained UW in the game, and completely shut them down in the last 2 1/2 quarters of that game. 5 punts and one INT in their last 6 possessions. Boise made 5 trips to the red zone in that span and ended with 2 picks, a blocked FG, a made FG, and were stopped on downs. We're not talking about an offensive juggernaut with Washington here. They are now facing a big boy defense. Ohio St hasn't given up anhything, and there are many reports that Tressel has kept his offense close to the vest so far. They're starting a new QB in his first road game, but Boeckman has been capable and he faces a defense that can be pushed around. I'll be really surprised if the Huskies get much if anything going on offense.

11. BC +7 @Georgia Tech: It sits at 6 1/2 now, but it has been 7, and the late money will probably push it back to 7 at game time. I'll be playing it regardless probably. These teams are so evenly matched that any significant points are attractive here. Ga Tech has looked great, but any team would have handled Notre Dame the way Demetruis Jones handed them 4 possessions in ND territory like that. Even against ND's wet napkin defense, Ga Tech had to settle for field goals in the first half because of their complete inability to make a 3rd down. They rely a lot on their running game, but BC has all but one of their front 7 back. Matt Ryan looks like he is going to put up points on just about everyone this year, and Ga Tech has been very difficult to trust when the the going gets good.

12. @Colorado +4 v Florida St: At this point, I just don't think Florida St should be favored on the road against any competant BCS club. This team just refuses to be efficient on offense, yet will continue to get everyone's best shot because of who they are. So far this year, even their defense hasn't looked all that great, as both Clemson (with a rookie QB) and UAB threw it effectively on them. Colorado is not great, and they got clubbed by Arizona St last week, but a lot of people will this year. They finally have a QB who can throw it effectively, and they have been scrappy on defense the last couple of years, especially at home. FSU just struggled mightily with UAB at home. UAB is really bad, as Michigan St showed us in week one. FSU has done nothing to indicate that they should be favored here.

Others: I think Todd Graham at Tulsa is a really good coach. He took Rice to a bowl last year, and look at what's happening to them now. Tulsa has experience on both sides of the ball and a veteran QB, and they play well at home. They're catching 6 1/2 at home against BYU, who is in a bit of a letdown spot..i like it....Idaho is getting 25 at WAZZOU. They actually looked ok at USC in the opener. Not that there's much you can take from that, but their RB ran it for 100 yards on 22 carries and defensively they picked off 2 passes and held their own. They travel the short trip to Pullman, and WSU has USC on deck. Robb Akey, the coach at Idaho was the Cougs' d coordinator for the past 7 years, so Doba probably won't run it up on him....FAU gets 10 in Miami from Minnesota. Historically Minny has been bad on the road, and this year they were a sniff away from being 0-2 at home against a couple of MAC squads. FAU looked good in their opener..I don't think the Gophers should be laying DD to anyone on the road at this point. I'd really like it if it was at FAU's stadium, but it's in Joe Robbie or whatever they call it now....I also think Indiana will handle Akron. Indiana is underrated offensively, and Akron can't move the ball to save their lives. That's good for Indiana, because they haven't proven anything on defense yet. They have to cover 13. I think they'll manage that. After a scare at La Tech, I think Hawaii will lay the wood on UNLV this week. Both teams aren't as good/bad as they showed last week. UNLV matched up well with a sleepwalking Wisconsin team. The'Bows will be motivated after their clunker last week, and the Rebs don't have the offense to stay within 17.....I'll also be taking a shot with New Mexico against an overrated Arizona team laying 10. The best game of the week to watch will probably be Louisville and Kentucky, but with that spread down to 5, I have no play on it. Mike Cassity scares the crap out of me as a D coordinator against an explosive offense. Too bad that game doesn't appear to be on TV. Someone should be horsewhipped for that. Good luck this week!!!!