Week 5 Musings

I woke this morning to some really terrific news. Bill Wirtz died last night. That is fantastic. I don't know if it's possible for me to give a shit about today's NHL, but this is a good start toward finding out, as long as Wirtz's spineless kids don't fear him from the grave. Hopefully, Peter Wirtz doesn't think to himself, "'Ok, Dad's dead. I'm in charge now. Any moron with the sense God gave to an amoeba can see that home games should be televised, but damn, if I do that, his decrepit, rotting hand might rise out of the earth and strangle me." The more dangerous scenario might be the fear of not doing "what he would have wanted." Well, the aspects of "what he wanted" reduced a once-proud franchise to a completely irrelevant laughingstock, so go ahead and give that a try.

Last week blew, 6-5 on the numbered musings and a collection of babbling absurdity among the also rans. The numbered musings are now at 64%..so we have some work to do to get to the stated(if unrealistic) goal of 66% for the year. It's still a number you can clean up with, but disappointing nontheless, since the last two weeks have been shit.

Every year, there's a week where you run into brutal luck with games you're on. I think (and hope) that last week was that week. For example, Wake is 3/4ths the way through their standard choke job as a favorite, losing 24-3 with Maryland knocking on the door at the 3 yard line looking to go up 31-3. Unfortunately, Maryland's womanly quarterback Jordan Steffy(could you conjure up a more homosexual name than that?) limpwristed a duck that was subsequently picked off and taken to the house for a 102 yard score. Wake scores again after a 3 and out, recovers an on side kick and scores to tie it with 3 seconds left, Naturally, Maryland shits the bed in OT to fail to cover the 3 1/2. Then later on, two thirds of Arkansas's team comes down with a mystery virus, causing most of their team to have a puke fest prior to the game. Despite that, Arkansas leads 20-7 with a 350-102 yard edge in the closing seconds of the first half, with the ball at Kentucky's 30, looking to add another score. Then their ham-fisted quarterback Casey Dick trips over the pulling guard, bounces a handoff to McFadden, which in turn bounces right into the hands of an in-stride Kentucky defender who takes it 75 yards for a score with 25 seconds left in the half. They then get the opening kick of the second half and take it down for a score to make it 21-20. After that, Arkansas runs out of IVs for all it's sick players, several of them are too dehyrated to continue, and they wilt sown the stretch and lose. For the sake of time I won't get into the Iowa/Wisconsin debacle, or the fact that New Mexico State figured out a way to turn it over 7 times, which answers the question, "How do you outgain your opponent for the game and lead at halftime, but still manage to fail to cover a game by 18 points?"

On to this week:
1. @Arkansas St -4 V Mepis: THURSDAY This was an original musing from week 2, but the game was cancelled due to inclement weather. Unfortunately, at the time, the spread was Arky St +4. I guess we would have been on the right side in retrospect. Arky St failed to cover at Tennessee last week by a point thanks to a late FG by UT and 2 consecutive missed 4th downs inside Ut's 10 in the 4th quarter. Oh well, another bone job. In that game however, the Tribe continued to show that they can compete against the big boys. Their RB ran for 130 yards on 16 carries, and they threw it effectively as well. Memphis spent the day getting drilled by Central Florida, who was in a supreme letdown spot after losing the tough one to Texas the week before. When you play a bunch of wet wipes, though, it really doesn't make any difference what spot you find yourself in.Even their backup QBcame in and went 11 for12. UCF ended up with a 600+ yard performance. This is Central Florida we're talking about, not Oklahoma or something. Tommy West is clearly a lame duck, and his team knows it. Arky St will still be looking at this as a statement opportunity, and they are certainly the better team at this point.

2. @South Florida +7 v West Virginia: FRIDAY. There is always some danger in going against this juggernaut, but South Florida is a terrble matchup for WV. They are fast, tough and smart on defense, and they'll be playing this game on grass. Last year in Morgantown, South Florida came in and beat them in a must win for WV, and it wasn't a fluke. They outgained them for the day, and injured Pat White in the process. WV never got anything going on the ground, with a season low output of 132 yards rushing(3.2 per). Now they come back with both teams basically intact this year to tee it up again. It's being billed as the biggest home game in So Fla's history. I think this could go either way, so I'll take the 7.

3. @Purdue -21 v Notre Dame: I don't want to pile on, since Notre Dame has a taken enough criticism over the past few weeks, but Good Lord, passing on this game is just foolish. With this offense, which has reached mythic proportions in it's ineptitude, Notre Dame matches up well with no team in Division 1. But Purdue? Outside of Okalhoma or LSU, or God forbid USC(they ought to cancel that one in a couple weeks) there isn't a worse matchup for the Irish than Purdue right now. Instead of going into specifics, let me just tell you that ND is statistically the worst offense Division 1 has seen in at least 5 years, probably longer. They are last in every measurable offensive category in the country. Texas Tech has as many passing touchdowns as they have first downs if you can believe that. In short, it would be a miracle if they can score more than 14 points, against any defense. What we tend to forget about Notre Dame, is that they have a bad defense as well. It hasn't really been exposed because teams haven't even needed to pass against them. They're actually in the top 10 nationally against the pass, but when you notice that teams are only attempting 20 throws per game against them, and that they've still managed to give up 8TD's vs 2 INTs, you see that this is not much of a unit. Purdue QB CurtisPainter has thrown 12 TDs vs 0 Ints and has been sacked once all year. I'd say Tiller has things working well. Considering they will have an average field position of ND's 40 thanks to a collection of sacks, turnovers and shanked punts, it will be even easier for them. Also, don't forget that Purdue has spent the better part of 3 years getting punded by ND, and Joe Tiller is known to be a bit of a cock, so don't expect them to let up at all.

4. @Florida -18 v Auburn: Auburn and Tommy Tuberville have lived a charmed life over the past few years. He has gone from county dullard about to be run out on a rail to privilegded media cupcake in the process. This week, he and his collection weakling queers are going to know pain. The difference in skill level between these teams is frightening, and Florida definitely remembers who somehow gave them their only loss last year. Unless Urban Meyer is guilty of some kind of shananigans that Tuberville has pictures of, or he decides to take his starting offense to visit sick children during the game or something, this should be a beatdown.

5. Clemson -3 @Georgia Tech: Historically, I have had a hard time trusting Clemson, especially as a road favorite, and especially especially when they are already coming off a game in which they covered as a road favorite, but in this case, I'm taking the plunge. They have turned into a balanced offense with the development of Cullen Harper. So far this year, he's thrown 12 TD's with no INTs, and he's played against Florida St and NC State. Last week against NC State, they completely dominated, with both of their RBs going over 100, and holding NC state to nothing on offense until the game was pretty much over. Georgia Tech continues to stink offensively, especially on 3rd down. Taylor Bennett is starting to remind people of Reggie Ball. Georgia Tech is sliding..Clemson should hammer them.

6. Western Michigan pk @Toledo: After a bit of a hiatus, Western Michigan returns to the musings. Toledo is coming off a home win against Iowa St, but don't get too excited. They were pretty much dominated in the game, and only won because they got 2 special teams TD's in the last 8 minutes of the game. Plus, Iowa St will find a way to lose a road game, regardless of the opponent. So far this year, Toledo has given up 52, 52, 35 and 31 points in their games and now face another solid passing attack in WMU. After a slow start, they are starting to pick it up offensively, and despite their numbers being skewed by games against West Virginia and Missouri, they have a good stop unit. I think this is where the Broncos will stke their claim as the class of the MAC.

7 Colorado St +11 @TCU: TCU followed up a two game losing streak with an absolute clunker last week against SMU. To illustrate TCu's offensive struggles, consider that SMU coming into that game was dead last in pass defense, having given up 600+ to previously impotent North Texas through the air. TCU ended up getting outgained by more than 100 yards in the game, and only totalled 108 passing yards for the game at home. Luckily for them, their defense held SMU to 7, and they scored 2 TDs on returns, so they won, but of course failed to cover. Now they come in as double digit favorites against a much better Colorado St team(despite being winless against a tough openeing slate of Colorado, Cal and Houston on the road) who has a solid offense. (28 vs Colorado, 27 vs Cal) In order to cover this, TCU will probably have to put up at least 28, and their defense took a hit when their best player, DE Tommy Blake had to leave the team for personal reasons. Colorado St also isn't going winless..they have a great shot at an outright win.

8. @Oregon -5 v Cal: I think most people would look at this game and say "Holy Shit, I can get 5 with Cal?" I thought that too, but a closer inspection indicates that Oregon looks like the right side. Oregon's offense has been devestating this year. They're probably the top offense in college football right now with the way they can run and pass. Dennis Dixon has 11 TDs against zero picks, and they are running it at 6.2 ypc. Cal's defense is nothing to write home about, especially on the road. In addition, their offense loses some luster as well, as Nate Longshore in his career only averages about 185 yards passing per game with a 6/9 TD/INT ratio on the road, and Cal was outgained in their only road game this year, a 34-28 squeaker with Colorado St in which Longshore only totalled 146 yards through the air. If they hope to hang with Oregon this week, they'll need to have one of their best offensive games in years, or they'll have to get a shitload of turnovers, because Oregon is going to move it on them for sure.

9. @Tulsa -21 V UAB: You can pretty much take it to the bank that Tulsa is going to put up a ton of points in this one...I really doubt that UAB will be able to stop that offense at all. Their defense is also much better than they've shown, considering the offenses they've faced. I can easily see a 63-21 game here.

10. Indiana +11 @Iowa: I think there might be some sentiment for Iowa because they hung with Wisconsin, but all they proved to me was that they still can't move the ball. This week, they lost two of their good offensive weapons in the game, so they're even more shorthanded. Indiana, despite their troubles with Illinois last week, has an offense that can move the ball. I think that as long as they don't turn the ball over a bunch of times and show some semblance of a rush defense, they have a shot in this game.

Others: There are a lot of dogs I like this week. I don't LOVE them, but I like them enough to plop a couple bucks on 'em. First, any team catching points when playing Louisville at home is a must play. I realize NC State showed nothing against Clemson last week, but any team that can give up 400+ yards passing to Syracuse has got to be the worst defense ever created. When DC Mike Cassity was at Illinois, there came a time when the Illini just could not stop a soul on defense, as if they just forgot what defense was after a couple years of competence. Looks like that's happening to Louisville, because they have just given up on defense. MTSU and Syracuse, other than in their games with Louisville, can't even walk and chew gum at the same time. With the 9, I'll go with Nc State.........I like Pitt to bounce back after their loss to UCONN at home. They made a QB switch and with the solid running game they have along with a pretty good D, they might sneak up on Virginia who is laying 7 coming off an emotional game with Ga Tech......UCONN might also have a big letdown after their win at Pitt last week. They are laying 13 1/2 to Akron. Don't forget that UCONN barely squeaked by Temple two weeks ago and should have lost if a replay official got a TD catch called correctly. Akron, despite a weak offense, has shown the ability to hang....Arizona St gave up 500+ at home to Oregon St last week, getting outgained by 100+ in the process. Luckily for them they were granted 5 INTs by Oregon St basket case Sean Canfield. Now they go on the road for the first time this year to play what looks to be an improved Stanford team, who can throw it a bit. They're laying more than 2 TDs(14 1/2). I'll go with the home dog there...... Even though Bama has let us down two weeks in a row, I don't trust a Florida St team that still can't convert a third down to cover as a favorite against them on a neutral field. FSU hasn't even really been that good on defense. I like Bama there.....Texas A&M might have a letdown after getting pummelled by Miami. Baylor comes in as a 17 point dog. So far this year, Baylor has shown some life in the passing game, and A&M has shown no ability to stop anyone. It's an early game on the plains, so A&M might take some time to warm up, and Baylor has hung tough with them two years in a row.....TREND PLAY: Vandy has always struggled as a favorite, and this week they are laying 20 to Eastern Michigan. EMU isn't much, but Vandy might struggle with a number that big. Hopefully, we see a nice turnaround from last week. Take care.