Week 4 musings

Week 3 was an unmitigated disaster. 5-7 or 5-6-1 based on where you got Alabama. I got them at 3, but the musings said 3 1/2, so we go with 3 1/2, thus the 5-7 record on the numbered musings. Hopefully, everyone found some logic they liked in the other listed games, which went 6-0. I actually went 18-9(I know, too many games), but I certainly picked the wrong games to list as numbered musings. There were, however, some bright spots from the week, namely that noted jackass Tommy Tuberville and his sickly Auburn team got beat outright at home by Sly Croom and his band of misfits. I almost was hoping for Auburn to pull it out in that one so we could continue the "Fade Auburn" joyride. Now I'm afraid it'll cost a heavy price from this point on to fade those cripples.

Quick Rant: Why does ESPN think that a football game does not provide enough entertainment on it's own during their telecasts? If you watch tonight's game, they will preview for you what topics they'll be covering during the game. they'll actually have a menu for each quarter, as if the game I'm watching isn't important enough to pay attention to. Tonight, they've got the #3 team in the country on, but I bet they'll feel more inclined to bash Notre Dame or Michigan instead. The height of this bullshit was Saturday during the Alabama Arkansas game. During the game, they have a phone conversation between the guys in the booth and some chick from the US Soccer team calling from whatever godforsaken place they're having the "Women's" World Cup this year. So I have to listen to this giggling maniac talk about the US team's awesome win over Bulungi, or Shitbagistan or whoever the hell they played. Hey assholes!!! I"M WATCHING ALABAMA/ARKANSAS!!!! WHAT THE HELL DO I CARE ABOUT THIS SHIT??????? STOP FORCING THIS POLITICALLY CORRECT BULLSHIT ON ME IN MY DOMAIN AND TALK ABOUT THE MOTHERFUCKING GAME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Had to get that off my chest. On to this week....Good strart so far thanks to the 'Canes.


2. @Tulsa +231/2(hopefully 24) v Oklahoma: Tonight. If you hesitate on this one, I have no problem with that, since Oklahoma has looked extremely good thus far. I have a feeling we might have 3 undefeateds, much like in '03, because the Sooners don't appear to have a game on their schedule in which they'll be favored by less than about 8, as it appears that they'll consume Texas in one bite and shit them about about two hours later. However, this might be one of the very few spots to go against them. Despite their utter destruction of their opponents so far, the level of offensive talent against them hasn't been good. Miami was playing the buffoonish Kirby Freeman at QB for the defining portions of their game, so that doesn't count. Utah St is a joke, so they don't count. This is also their first foray on the road, so we can expect some struggles, and trust me, Sam Bradford can't be THAT good can he? OK, Oklahoma's good, but so is Tulsa in my opinion. Todd Graham has proven to be a helluva coach, and they way they moved the ball o0n BYU last week suggests that they will be successful to some degree against just about everyone, especially at home. Unfortunately, they have been a sieve on D, so we'll have to hope for OU to come out without all cylinders firing. 23 is a lot of points..if Tulsa has their offense working and doesn't give up 60 I think they can get under the number. The game certainly means a lot more to Tulsa(and they're undefeated) that it does to OU. It'll be a fun one to watch.

3. @Michigan +3 v Penn St: I said in the preseason musings that Michigan "should have" run the table. I will now say that they "should" run the table from here. They sucked it in the first two games because they didn't match up for shit against Oregon, and because Appy St happened to have a spread offense as well, which they have proven they can't stop to save their Syracuses. In this game, they match up. Anthony Morelli, in my opinion, still has not shown that he can do much of anything positive in a tough situation, and frankly Penn St hasn't really beaten anyone to justify their ranking. Lloyd Carr despite being a douche bag has beaten Paterno nine times in a row. If he lets Ryan Mallett actually play quarterback this week and use his weapons, I think Michigan can easily win this game. They'll have a lot to prove in the wake of the nonstop chatter about how much they suck. They really don't suck.

4. @Arkansas -7 v Kentucky: Kentucky is coming off their best win in several years, maybe even decades last week against Louisville. Everyone is on the bandwagon in Lexington, and they are now ranked in the top 25 for the first time in awhile. there is no way in hell they can be prepared and mentally ready enough to compete with Arkansas. The Hogs really impressed me last week in Tuscaloosa by coming back when they were completely out of it early. Casey Dick even looked pretty good throwing the ball, piling up 38 points on the road in the process. Now they come back home to play a night game on national TV against a distracted team that doesn't have half of the D that Bama does. It will not be made difficult for them. They will need to slow down Woodson and co, but this team has not really proven that they can pile up the necessary points against a competent SEC defense on the road. In their last 7 SEC road games against the non Mississippi/Vandy schools they have scored 12,0,7,13,7, and 16 points. They'll need at least 28 to cover this one in my opinion, maybe more.

5. @Wisconsin -7 v Iowa: I kind of think this spread will go up, so you might want to jump on it. Home teams in these type of situations(national night games, relatively short favorites) tend to jump all over their unsuspecting prey like hyenas. Wisconsin has not looked very good this year in any of their games...The freakin Citadel had them on the ropes this past week for goodness sakes, but this is the first game they play that they'll really have their juices flowing. Iowa, by contrast, already played someone who had their juices flowing last week, the dreadful Iowa St Cyclones, who punked them as 17 point dogs despite not denting the end zone even once. Iowa should be a lot better than they've shown, but they just refuse to be efficient on offense, despite some good talent. Jake Christensen threw for a paltry amount of yards against iowa St's sieve, as well as Northern. Their running game is decent, but rather pedestrian and will probably be almost non-existant against Wisconsin. They are unlikely to put up much offense. Wisconsin might not either, but they have shown an ability to get things done in the passing game, and maybe PJ Hill will feel like running hard. They'll get more than enough to cover this one. It'll probably be over early in the second half.

6. @BYU -11 1/2 v Air Force: Air Force has looked good so far this year, winning at Utah, and at home against TCU.However, Utah was playing their first game with new skill people, and weren't really ready to play a disciplined squad like AF, and TCU actually outgained the Syracuse out of AF in theThursday night game, they just fell victim to a couple big plays and a bunch of turnovers. As a matter of fact, TCU's super pedestrian QB threw for 300+ on them. Now they go on the road to face BYU's passing attck, which just dropped over 500 in a losing cause at Tulsa, and riddled UCLA for a ton on the road in another loss. BYU has struggled against the pass, but has not had any problems against the run. In short, this is a bad matchup for the Academy here. Also, the points almost never come into play in BYU home games..they either blow people out or lose outright. At 1-2, this team is NOT going to lose this game.

7. @Alabama -3 1/2 V Georgia: It's a good idea to avoid the urge to dismiss Bama after they puked up that lead last week against Arkansas. They are back in a good spot this week at home, on national TV against an overrated Georgia team. I don't think Stafford is ready yet to pull out a victory on the road when the band is playing against a solid team like Bama. georgia has had cases of extreme matador-like behavior at times lately, and if that tendency shows up this week, they have no chance to cover. They also can't turn the ball over, which they are prone to do at times as well.

8. New Mexico St +161/2 @ Auburn: OK. Auburn is 1-2. We know that. They are 1-2 because they suck ass. To wit, South Florida didn't even play that well against them in week 2 and beat them. K St was completely incapable because they had a crippled QB a helpless/special needs left tackle and a retarded head cosch, but they still almost beat them. Mississippi St, a horrific team in their own right had their QBs go 5/18 for 41 yards passing AND WON. Auburn now is using 2 QBs, one a true frshman who can't throw, as well as a ton of frshman and sophomores in other areas. Their defense is completely banged up. Now NMSU comes in, they of the electric passing game and helpless defense. The helpless defense, however is somewhat mitigated by the in shambles offense on the other side. Last year MNSU outgained their opponents by almost 100 ypg and have outgained their foes in all their games this year. They will almost certainly go up and down the field on Auburn. I don't expect an outright win, but I don't think Auburn should be favored by this much against a capable offensive squad.

9. Purdue -13 1/2 @ Minnesota: I do not like taking Purdue in a spot like this,(DD road favorite)but unless they completely Syracuse the bed, there is no reason they can't lay at least 50+ on the Gophers. Minnesota just gave up 590 yards, including 400+ passing and 5 TDs to the great Rusty Smith and Florida Atlantic.They also gave up 500+ to offensive lightweights like Miami(OH) and BG so it's no accident. Purdue has looked downright scary against the collection of homos they've played so far, but scary nontheless. Minnesota might be able to move it some on Purdue, but Minnesota has also shown a very bad penchant for tuning the ball over (7 last week). It's funny how Minnesota got tired of Glen Mason only getting them to second tier bowl games every year. Being the laughingstock of the Big Ten is so much more desirable.

10. @Virginia +4 v Ga Tech: I think we all were blinded by that opening performance vs an historically inept Notre Dame team when considering Ga Tech. They showed themselves to be completely unable to make a 3rd down conversion in the first 3 quarters of that game, and continued that trend in their putrid performance against BC this past week. Now they go on the road to face a Virginia defense that is better than they've shown so far. Offensively, they haven't shown a whole lot, and Ga tech will be the best D they've seen so far(though Wyoming is good as well), but they can run it pretty well, and the rotating QB system worked ok for them last week. As home dogs, they almost always find a way to cover, and Ga Tech looks ripe to be covered against.

11. Ball St +22 1/2 @Nebraska: Ball St likes itself right now, having gone 2-1 with a nice win at Navy last week. They're actually kicking themslves for yacking away their opener against Miami(OH). They have a good QB, a very good receiver and a pretty good running game. On the flip side, Nebraska is almost certainly going to have a hangover after that USC game. I like to go against big favorites in early games, since it might take them awhile to get going. There is some risk that Nebraska will run wild on BSU's d, since they've given up more than 6 yards per carry on the year, but rushing numbers are always skewed negatively coming off a game with Navy. I think Ball St is no pushover, and in order to cover 3 td's, Nebraska will have to play inspired football. Don't forget that Ball St almost beat Michigan at the big house last year in the middle of Michigan's dominant run, so they've snuck up on unsuspecting big dogs before.

Others: Coming off the Minnesota win, Florida Atlantic is laying 7 on the road at North Texas. UNT is winless, but this is the Sun Belt, and FAU can look great one week and pathetic the next. There's a new spread offinse at UNT now and they haven't unveiled it at home yet..might be a lot of points in that one, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if UNT took that one outright.....Maryland is catching 3 1/2 at Wake, so the obligatory fade Wake as a favorite rule is in play. Army's cover of them last week brought Grobe to a 3-17 record as a home favorite....Wyoming is laying 4 to Ohio. They are pretty good, especially on defense. Ohio is Notre Dame-bad offensively, so as long as the 'Boys can put up a couple scores, they should cover that...I'll be on Colorado to cover the 14 on Miami(oh). Big coaching edge in that one....Arky St is catching 20 at Tennesse. This Arky St team has looked very good so far, and UT migth be feeling sorry for themselves a bit off that thrashing they took at Florida. If they don't show up for this one,they will be ion for a dogfight....For some reason I think Northwestern gets up off the deck after that brutal loss to Duke and competes with Ohio St....I also think NC State is due for a good gme, and I think Clemson is a bit overrated at this point. They have a tendency to lose games like this, and NC St is catching 7 at home....Last note, I don't really recommend going against Florida at this point, but Urban meyer is 0-7 ATS at Florida as a road favorite. Ole Miss is the beneficiary of 23 this week. Will it be enough? History says yes.

Ok that's it. take care, and let's make up for that abortion from last week.