Week 7 Musings

First of all, I apologize that I didn't get a weekday musings out to everyone for the Thursday game with Wake and Florida State. The normal protocol would indicate taking Wake as a dog in that one, especially on a Thursday night, but I completely forgot to get something out after being on the road earlier in the week. Hopefully, everyone caught that Wake was a dog there. Sorry 'bout that.

I'm not sure if anyone caught the Wednesday night game between Pitt and Navy, but good ole Wanny did us proud again. First of all, Pitt has a freshman running back named LeSean McCoy who is a slashing type runner(kind of like me). He's good. Navy, assignment based and scrappy as they are(read:small and slow) had no answer for him. In the second OT, Navy kicks a FG. Pitt, in it's subsequent possession, drives to a first and goal at the 6. On 1st down, Mc Coy rambles to the 1. 2nd and goal from the one: Pass.(incomplete) Third and goal from the one: Pass.(incomplete). Now it's fourth down. Wanny decides to go for it, a baffling move, since another OT might have caused Navy to collectively drop dead right there. However, the best part was the play call. Give the ball to McCoy, and nobody questions it. But what does Wanny do? He throws a fade with a freshman QB to a shit receiver who can't jump or catch. THIS IS NAVY WE"RE TALKING ABOUT DUMBASS!!!!!!!!!! RUN IT DOWN THEIR THROATS!! With the game on the line, and while facing a defense that had practically collapsed, Wanny put all his eggs in the basket of what is almost an entirely random event, a fade pattern in the endzone. Gotta love Wanny and his patchy mustache.

Another thing: USC lost as a 41 point favorite. They're ranked 10th, and I am still waiting for all the guffawing and smart aleck media columns pointing fun at Pete Carrol. I hate Lloyd Carr 10 times more than the next guy, but why is it that Michigan loses to Appy St, drops completely out of the top 25 never to be heard from again and gets destroyed for it for 5 solid weeks, but now, USC loses at home to Stanford, as a 41 point favorite no less(and confirmed as the largest dog in gambling history to ever win outright), they come in at #10 in the polls and we hear nary a peep? Have I just missed the internet articles by Johnny Amatuer Comedian? Is Lloyd Carr that unlikeable? Wait, don't answer that.

Conditions didn't improve for the musings this week, as we went 4-7-1 on the numbered offerings. There were some bad beats, but there's no sense in going through them all. 38-29 for the year, but it has not been pretty over the last 4 weeks. The also rans had a couple winners, but shit. To say that we're due for a good week is the understatement of the century. On to this week's games.

1. (FRIDAY) @San Jose St +17 1/2 v Hawaii: I locked this one in at 19 earlier this week, but I notice that the line has dropped. Last year, San Jose St, after years of playing the Washington Generals to everyone else's Globetrotters, put together a nice year and ended up in a bowl. During the season they hung with some tough teams, beat some others, and won their bowl game against a solid New Mexico squad on the Lobos home field. They were good because they had a QB, Adam Tafralis who threw effectively(21-7 ratio)and a good defense that didn't get embarrassed by anyone. Most of their guys were back, including Tafralis, so things looked good for this year. However, they came out and opened with a pathetic performance against Arizona St, and then looked helpless in their next two games against K St and Stanford. A tough schedule, yes, but they were just bludgeoned in the process, with Tafralis posting some helpless looking numbers. However, in the past 3 weeks, SJSU has won 3 in a row, and Tafralis has his YPA up over 8 with a 10/6 ratio. Hawaii, as we all know, has a pinball machine for an offense, but things just haven't been right for them this year. Due to an abysmal schedule, they are still on track for an undefeated year, but they had to scratch and claw to get past some horrid teams. They haven't played anywhere near the caliber of teams SJSU has played. Colt Brennan has been hurt the past few weeks, and hasn't had the rhythm he has shown in the past. They almost lost to La Tech earlier this year, and I think SJSU, with a good QB and a solid coach in Dick Tomey, is much better than La Tech. It's an ESPN gme, so everyone will be jacked..I think SJSU will give the 'Bows a very good game, and with what has happened so far in college football this year, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won this one outright.

2. Rutgers -17 1/2 @Syracuse: Back to the well with the Scarlet Knights here. If this game was played 3 weeks ago, Rutgers would be a 28 point favorite. Syracuse has played a tough schedule but still has not played a game in which they were outgained by less than 130 yards. Offensively, we know what they are capable of(other than that aberration against Louisville), having been held to 202 yards last week by WV, and only 300 the week before that in a loss against MAC weakling Miami(OH). Now they face Rutgers, a team coming off two losses in a row, and possessors of an explosive passing game(10+ yards per pass play)and a solid runnning game with Ray Rice. The Orange, frankly, has not been able to stop anyone this year in either facet. To be honest, if Rutgers doesn't lay waste to these guys, Greg Sciano can go F himself for the rest of the year as far as I'm concerned.

3. @Texas Tech -9 1/2 v Texas A&M: Yikes. This line went up another point overnight. I'm still on board, though. In the two times coach Fran has gone to Lubbock Mike Leach has dropped 59 and 56 points on his considerable melon. This year, A&M can't stop a soul through the air, evidenced by the 10.6 YPA they gave up to Kyle Wright a few weeks ago. Tech is as good as ever in the passing game, and they have been under the radar, unranked with a 5-1 record, so they are probably looking to lay a beatdown on someone. A&M's offense hasn't really hit on all cylinders this year. They were the first team in more than 4 years to fail to score 30 on Oklahoma State in a Cowboy road game, and they looked pathetic against Miami(not a total indictment). If they want to stay in this one, they'll have to put up 40 at least, and I don't see that happening. Unless of course, coach Fran suddenly figures out how to stop a passing game, or Mike Leach decides to switch to the veer. One other note: A&M's remaining schedule is the following: @TT, @Nebraska, Kansas, @Oklahoma, @Missouri, Texas. Can you say "Coach Fran farewell tour?"

4. Missouri +12 @Oklahoma: I always hesitate with Gary Pinkel at the helm for Mizzou, and surprisingly undefeated teams in cases like this rarely deliver the goods, but 12 points is a bit much in my estimation. First of all, you won't have the requisite shivering QB wilting like a lily in this one. Chase Daniel is the real deal. He's tough, he'll run if he has to, and he has put up solid performances against good teams in the past. Oklahoma, despite a blistering start, has struggled in the secondary. A hobbled Colt McCoy carved them up for 12.46 YPA last week. To compare, in his previous 4 games, Mc Coy has YPAs of 6.75, 5.12, 5.51 and 6.28. The only other team on OU's slate who has thrown it with any precision is Tulsa, and Paul Smith lit them up as well(10.96 per atempt). I think Daniel will have some success. The perceived problem for Mizzou has been the defense, which has given up some big numbers this year. However, in every game they have played, they have been up big by early in the third quarter. They held Rahshard Mendenhall to 33 yards on 11 carries. They gave up jack crap to Nebraska until the Huskers begged for mercy like a playground wimp. I think their defense is better than people give them credit for, and I think they have a better than average shot in this one.

5. Oregon St +14 @Cal: This is a bit of a hunch play, but I think the Beavs can make this a game, despite their struggles. I like Cal. I think Jeff Tedford is just dreamy as a head coach, I really do. But there is no well in hell this team is the second best team in the country. They aren't anywhere near as good as they have been in any one of the last 4 years as a matter of fact. They are coming off a bye, and find themselves in this position, and probably can't help but feel the urge to roll their helmets out there and call it a day. However, Nate Longshore is hurting...there is some uncertainty if he will play. Even if he does, Oregon St has a solid defense. They have completely stuffed everyone who has tried to run on them(1.9 ypc). They've struggled in pass defense, but Cal's game this year has been the running game, and will be this week for sure if Longshore can't go. The Beavs have outgained opponents by more than 100 per this year, but sit at 3-3 due to their astounding ability to throw interceptions. Their QB Sean Canfield has been the culprit, but his numbers have improved over the past two weeks. Mike Riley is a good coach, and the Beavs can run it with yvenson Bernard. If they avoid turnovers, they will almost certainly hold their own in this one.

6. @MIchigan St -3 1/2 v Indiana: This game kind of reminds me of IU's game last year at Minnesota. They had a couple nice efforts in a row, then went up to Minnesota expecting to win. The spread indicated correctly that the Hoosiers were misguided in their confidence, but the betting public was wholeheartedly agreeing with the Hoosiers, running the line down 2 points in the process. Well, Minny dropped 63 on the Loosiers, and the betting public stood with mouths agape. Now, we revisit the scene of the crime, this time with Michigan St as the perpetrator. MSU comes off a sickly performance against CJ Bacher and his pals which led to a lot of joyous eyebrow burrowing by Pat Fitzgerald. Indiana has spent the past two weeks playing keep away from the sissies of the Big Ten. The line on this one has gone from 5 1/2 to 3 1/2, but with good reason, right? Indiana is going to go to East Lansing off two good performances in a row and win again, right? They're going to have no problem stopping Javon Ringer and his 6.7 ypc average and Brian Hoyer and his 11/3 ratio right? Indiana's offense, with all 3 of their running backs listed as questionable is going to move it up and down the field on a well coached MSU defense that uncharacteristically just got blistered and embarrassed on their home field? I don't think so. I see a reversal of fortunes for both of these teams. I doubt seriously that Indiana will be 6-1, (3-1). 5-2, (2-2) seems a lot more likely doesn't it?

7. @Miami -2 1/2 v Goergia Tech: I'm not sure what the fascination is with Georgia Tech, but they keep getting saddled with extremely cumbersome spreads(for them) on the road. I'm more than happy to oblige, as both Virginia and Maryland were getting points at home against Ga tech and won outright. Now they travel to Miami, where they won as a 14 point dog two years ago. Miami has dropped 2 in a row to these guys lately, so they definitely have their attention. Tech continues to struggle with their passing game, and is likely to do so again against a Miami team that plays well when motivated at home. Kyle Wright also has shown an ability to be competent at home. Miami is coming off a total clunker against North Carolina, but they roared back after getting down big early. I think they'll take care of business this week and get the win.

8. @ Virginia -3 V UCONN. UCONN is undefeated, but they play in the SICA East, so they haven't really been tested. Well, actually they have, by Temple, so take that for what it's worth. Virginia almost always plays well at home, and they will likely be lashered up at the chance to knock off an undefeated team. I think UCONN goes quietly in this one.

9. @Michigan -5 v Purdue: Looking at stats, this would generally be a nice spot for Purdue. Michigan has not really gotten going offensively, and they have struggled against spread offenses. However, Purdue's numbers are skewed because they haven't faced anyone that can play defense, other than Ohio St, who completely stifled them last week. Purdue's problems in the Big House are legendary, with something like a 20 game losing streak up there, dating back to the 50's, and the glory days of Paddy McDivitt, Wilbur Stubbs and Jackrabbit DuCharme. Defensively, Purdue is having trouble getting stops, and Michigan is due for a breakout game. Manningham and Henne have been quiet lately, and Purdue won't have an answer for Hart. Purdue is actually ranked, while Michigan is not, providing some juice for the Wolverines.

10. Colorado +5 @Kansas St: Statistically, these two team match up almost even, but I think we have a case of teams going in opposite directions. Colorado started the season with Colorado St, Arizona St and Florida St, the last two sporting defenses who were really on a roll. The Buffs struggled in those games, but got back on track soon after. Any team that can statistically sodimize Oklahoma, which they did two weeks ago, has got my attention. Off that win, they handled a potential trap game at Baylor beautifully, getting up early and coasting to a win. K St is in a letdown spot, and they might be caught with their pants down because they handled Colorado rather easily in Boulder last year. However, this Colorado team is much better than they were last year, and the coaching advantage is solidly in the Buffs favor. I'll take the points here.

11. Baylor +27 @Kansas: Talk about a letdown spot. Kansas thundered through their laughable non-con schedule before teeing it up in their rivalry game to start off the conference slate last week. The college football media was skeptical, but Kansas proved themselves with a nice effort at K St, getting a tough victory. Now, the media is off their back, and they have ben annointed as the real deal. It will be absolutely impossible to expect anything but a lackluster effort from Kansas this week. They have played very well every single week this year, and the chip might have fallen off their shoulders. In the past, Kansas has stuggled hugely against good passing attacks, and Baylor has had a couple games where Guy Morriss has tossed it around a bit. They piled up 400+ in garbage time last week against Colorado..thy can certainly do that this week if they find themselves behind early. Maybe Kansas is good enough to roll their helmets out there and win by 30, but in this season of upsets and overall mayhem, I doubt it.

Others: I didn't want to jinx them, and the line has climbed to over 4, but there isn't any reason why the illini shouldn't wipe the floor with the new weak sister of the B10, Iowa. This Iowa offense is awful. They absolutely can't throw, and frankly, with 8 in the box, they can't run either. Illinois weakness is giving up yards in the passing game. They won't have to worry about that this week. I see single digits on the board for Iowa, and Illinois running game is starting to look like one of those that will pile up yards against whoever they play. Should be a 24-7 type game for the Illini......If Kentucky's RB Rafael Little wasn't banged up, I'd be on Kentucky for sure, but asking a team less than 100% to hang with LSU is not fair. Having said that, this is the letdown of all letdowns, as LSU is coming off that epic game with Florida, and has Auburn on deck. But the game is on national TV, so they won't look past it. I do think Kentucky will play a lot better than people think on defense, and should be able to do some minor things on offense. I'll be taking a flier with the 9 1/2 on the home dog.....I'll also be on Sly Croom, believe it or not getting 7 at home against Tennessee.. At home, they have shown the ability to punch people in the mouth at times on defense, and they have a good running game which matches up well with a UT defense that has given up more than 5 a pop this year. Possible letdown spot for UT as well....Toledo is getting 4 1/2 at Buffalo. Listen, I know Buffalo is better, and Toledo has looked bad this year, but I just cannot expect the MAC pecking order to do a complete about face in this game. A similar scenario played out last week with Ball St and CMU,and I fell fot it. Not this week....Duke is catching 14 at home against Va Tech. We know Va Tech has a good defense, but Duke has been figuring out ways to score this year, while Va Tech has not. At all. On offense at least. They rank 112th in total offense. They'll likely fare better against the Dukies, but they lost their best defensive player (Vince Hall) last week in their misleading win at Clemson. They might be looking at a letdown at Duke. If they don't get some non-offensive scores, they'll be in a dogfight.....Arizona comes off a beating at the hands of Oregon St and goes into Troy to face USC, fresh off the game that actually probably never happened. The prevailing wisdom would be that they will be going into a lion's den, but I really don't see it that way. I see USC as a team without their starting QB who just lost to Stanford. Arizona is getting 21...I'll bite....Two other hunches: I think Iowa St will surprise people and turn in a good performance at home against Texas getting 16 1/2, and I have a feeling UCF will give USF all they can handle getting 11 1/2. UCF has a great running back in Kevin Smith, and they caught absolutely no breaks last week in their game against East Carolina.

Best of luck to everyone. Hopefully we see a nice turnaround this week.