week 8 weekday musing

This one is tardy, but here's is what we had for the Thursday night game. Scroll down for the Saturday plays.... Not sure yet if we'll have anything Friday night, but I'm going to be on one for Thursday for sure. Decent bounceback last week for the numbered musings, but I had a tough week overall...played too many games. Full complement will come at some point on Friday. 1. @Rutgers +3 v South Florida: This line is at 2 1/2 in some spots, 3 in others. I just got it at 3 (-113) at matchbook. Coming into this season, we all kind of knew that South Florida had a shot at making some BCS noise, especially if they could figure out a way to get past Auburn in week 2. Well, since Auburn was pretty much in disarray at that point, they went in there and won, despite not even playing all that well. They are, were and always will be a terrible matchup for West Virginia, and they proved why a couple Fridays ago. Now they are coming off a fantastic effort against a not bad UCF squad in which they pulled a pissed off Droopy act on the Knights. Afterwards, they were rewarded with a #2 AP ranking. They have no choice but to look in the mirror and burst with pride and satisfaction. Meanwhile, Rutgers remembers what happened to them in the exact same situation last year. THEY were the media darling ranked too high for their own good, and got squashed by Cincinnati, then got shut out of the BCS, to end up in a 3rd tier bowl not even on national TV. They are also coming off two home losses in a row, and are certainly lathered up to make amends and not be embarrassed on their home field for a 3rd consecutive time. South Florida, on the other hand, is looking at their schedule and has to realize that this is by far the toughest remaining test they have. The remainder of their challenge games are at home, so they could be nervous, knowing that this is the place where they can blow their season. In my opinion, the motivational/situational edge goes to Rutgers. On the field, I tend to lean toward Rutgers as well. The strength of USF this year has been an opportunistic offense combined with a very good defense. They have been good against the run, much like they were last year. However, there is one game that sticks out on their docket from last year in rushing yards allowed, and that's the Rutgers game. Ray Rice went for 202 yards on 35 carries. The Bulls couldn't get a stop as long as Rice was involved. Remember that this was in Tampa, where nobody runs on USF. I think the chances are very good that Rice has his way again, and this will be by far the most explosive pass offense USF has faced, light years ahead of Florida Atlantic and QB Rusty Smith, who dropped 257 yard and a 3td/1int performance on them in their most recent road game. On the flip side, Matt Groethe has the ptential to put up a 125 yard passing effort for sure. I expect the Bulls to struggle offensively on the road, much like they did last year against Louisville(8 points), Cincy(6 points) and Kansas(7 points). We need to remember that this remains a pedestrian offensive squad against solid teams, as they haven't topped 325 yards against anyone of note since Grothe has gotten there. Overall, I think the Scarlet Knights have the situational, emotional and matchup advantages all in their favor. If USF pulls this one out, I will without question doff my cap to them, because it will take a hurculean effort from the players as well as the coaches.