My historical worst week of the season, Thanksgiving, continued it's shitfest this year. Everything I touched turned to fecal matter. 3-4-1. Just start fading me I guess. USC and Florida are the most perfect football teams the Good Lord has ever bestowed on this earth, apparently. I bet on Florida, they suck donkey ass against Georgia. I bet on USC, they look like a bunch of frightened children against Oregon. Then both of them completely lay a beat down on a couple of solid clubs. Whatever. By the way, I'm getting to the point where I am trying to handicap which team is most likely to win the turnover battle, but we all know that's a bunch of nonsense, since it's impossible to tell who is going to drop the football in a given week, and if we waste time trying to predict it, we'll end up in like J Peterman in the Burmese jungle speaking gibberish to one of the natives. Having said that, I'm still considering it, because I am getting hammered by turnovers. I stopped counting, but I amidst the carnage last weekend, I checked the box scores of the games I bet on to see how many of "my" teams won the turnover battle. I stopped checking after game #13, when the grand total remained at zero. On those 13 games, I was -23. Nice. Waaaaaaaaahhhh!!!!!!!!! Stop crying you half a queer! Season results aren't worth talking about anymore. If you followed the numbered musings this year, you'd be up enough to maybe buy yourself a Mars Bar.
As for the BCS/why is there not a playoff babble, we all agree that college football is great, yes? Every once in awhile there is a season like this one where there is no clear cut participants who we all can agree should be facing off in the MNC game. In most years, there is. Why do we feel that there is a need to change the entire landscape of a great sport just so we MIGHT be able to better identify who should be playing in one game. Is avoiding the unfortunate circumstance of a team having an unfulfilled claim to the play in the MNC game worth changing college football as we know it? I don't know about you guys, but other than for gambling purposes, I don't give even one quarter of a shit about college basketball right now, nor will I at any point until March, since my team inexplicably doesn't have a single good player on it. I don't want that to happen to college football. I'm not saying that a playoff couldn't work, but I just don't want to take a chance that it makes it worse.
The only good thing to say about this being the last week of college football is that we are that much closer to the bowl season. Here we go:
1. Oklahoma -3 V Missouri: Missouri played a fantastic game against Kansas last week, much better than I thought they could. If Gary Pinkel can get his team to play that well one week later, when all the pressure in the world is on his team, then he is all that and a bag of Doritos. Here's the problem. Oklahoma is better than Missouri. They aren't as consistent, but they're better. There is a ton of pressure on this Missouri team, since they are playing for a chance to play for the National Championship for the second week in a row. That is heavy, baby. Both teams have weak pass defenses, but interestingly, OU has the higher ranked pass offense, as well as a higher ranked pass defense. Mizzou is at 107 in pass D efficiency, and Bradford is ranked #2 among QBs in the same area. I just think asking Mizzou to pull this out, a week after the biggest game in their history is asking too much.
2. Tennessee +7 1/2 v LSU: Ok, can someone please explain to me why I keep hearing people on the radio say variations of the following: "I realize that LSU has lost two games, but in my opinion, if they had a playoff, they would walk right through it." Must we continue to listen to people continue to say that LSU is he best team in the country? Based on what? The Virginia Tech game? After that game, we assumed that this was what we could expect from LSU. Then the Tulane game happened, where they trailed at halftime. We all figured that was an anomaly. Then the should have lost to Florida. Then they definitely should have lost at home to a decent Auburn team. Then they should really definitely have lost to a .500 Alabama squad. Another anomaly. Then they gav up 465 yards and got outgained by 100 against Ole Miss with their backup QB in there. Fluke. Then they lost at home to a ho hum Arkansas team(lost to Kentucky at home, hammered by Tennessee, etc) when they were playing for the right to go to the National Championship as a 2 TD favorite. So what game was the anomaly? Yeah, the Va Tech game. Conclusion: As much as we all want LSU to be the best team in the country, they just aren't, ok? They're coached by a moron, and they just arent the best team in the country. Deal with it America, and move on. ok.....so now they get Tennessee. They've been carved up by just about everyone in their last 8 games, and you can make a case that this is the best offense they have faced since Florida. Very balanced. LSU does do a couple things well: put pressure on the QB, and get turnovers. However, Erik Ainge does a great job of holding on to the ball, and he's only been sacked 4 times ALL SEASON. LSU is bummed out because their chances to play for the MNC are gone. I think it shapes up for a good opportunity for UT. Their defense is not good, but LSU has not exactly lit it up on offense lately either.
3. Virginia Tech -4 1/2 v Boston College: This is a very dangerous play because a lot of public consensus agrees with it, but I think this is the play here. Va Tech has the obvious emotional edge because of what happened to them in Blacksburg a few weeks ago. Don't forget that for most of that game Matt Ryan looked awful, as did the BC offensive line. Also, since then, VT has turned into a downright respectable offensive club, with Branden Ore finding holes and Sean Glennon turning remarkably accurate throwing the ball. They piled up 430 yards against a very good Virginia defense on the road last week, and they ran Miami off the field the week before that On the flip side, BC slogged through a weak performance against Miami last week, and was extremely lucky to beat Clemson the week prior to that. I think the Hokies get it done here and move on to the BCS.
4. @Stanford +13 v Cal: Has anyone actually watched Cal play the last month. They suck. They can't stop anyone, and their offense has become largely pedestrian. I know Stanford is nothing to look at themselves, since they have the offensive explosiveness of a potted plant, but they still play hard, and this will be their Super Bowl for sure. Cal is just trying to get the whole thing over with and they have been in that mode since the USC game. 13 is a lot here. One other thing. If Cal wins, they play at home in shit weather in the Emerald Bowl. I they lose, they get to go to Vegas. Maybe not a bad idea if they lose, huh?
5. North Texas - 2 1/2 @ Fla International: What the hell am I doing here? No kidding, I feel dirty even referring to this game, backing a 1-10 team as a road favorite. Sometimes, though, just keep it simple. FLAINT is ranked 118th in total offense, 107th in total defense. It's the last ever college football game in the Orange Bowl, but that didn't work for Miami, so why should it work for Florida International? North Texas actually can move the ball, and they've done it both on the ground and through the air recently. All they have to do is beat this putrid team. I'm guessing Todd Dodge, who despite his record is getting feelers from other schools, gets it done here.
6. Central Michigan -3 v Miami(OH). CMU is the best team in the MAC. They have the best QB in the conference in Benet Academy's Dan LeFevour, and he's facing a defense that has had a hard time this year. For the record, CMU's has too, but there isn't much comparison at all between the offenses. CMU has struggled as a significant favorite this year, but that's not the case here. The cream generally rises to the top in the MAC title game, and CMU is the better team with the much better QB.
Others: Who would believe two weeks ago that on November 30th, Oregon would be a 1 point dog at home to the Beavs in the civil war? Well, that's how much Dennis Dixon means to this team. It's legit. Jonathan Stewart is back, and he's their only offensive hope this week. Too bad OSU is #1 in the country against the run......I get this game wrong every year, but I'll take Army +14. They have some talent at WR and QB, and Navy cannot stop a soul on defense. As we discussed previously, they should not be favored by 2 scores when they have the worst D in division 1......I caught some of the Apple Cup last week on replay last week. I noticed that Washington was helpless against WSU's two good wide receivers, who combined to catch 12 balls for 225 yards. UW was absolutely unable to cover these guys, as their secondary is banged up and just doesn't have the bodies to handle a good passing attack. That being the case,if they can't cover 2 good receivers, how in the hell are they going to cover 5 on the island aganst Hawaii when the 'Bows will be looking to run up as many points as possible to help ther BCS case as well as Colt Brennan's Heisman case? This should actually be a musing, but Washington has been good on offense lately, so there is a risk of them putting up 40 themselves.Probably not though. Maybe the over here.
Take care and Godspeed.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Thursday, November 22, 2007
Week 13 Musings
Last week was 6-6, once again, right up there with a coin flip. Nice. What's the point, then right? Sometimes I think the same thing. Actually, oftentimes, I think the same thing because what's the point of proclaiming your acumen if you can't pick your boxers out of your asscrack, let alone have any clue whether or not Alex Brink is going to yell "you want 7 more?" at the Oregon St D as he lofts pick #6 of the first half up for grabs. Actually, in addition to the 6 picks, Wazzou also failed on a fake punt and were stopped on downs at the OSU 1 in the first half...the equivalent of 8 turnovers in one half. Resident village idiot/douchebag Bill Doba mut be very proud of "his guys". Way to entertain the home crowd in a must win game!!
After watching this past Sunday's NFL lineup, I must ask he following question: Does anybody cover anyone in the NFL? Why is it that I can routinely watch Terrell Owens streaking through the Washington secondary, completely ignored by the Redskin DBs. Maybe I'm just naive, or the game has passsed me by or whatever, but if a certain HOF wide receiver runs past you, and you are a cornerback, isn't that somewhat alarming? Like I said, I might be naive, but when I played, my #1 concern or fear was letting a receiver get behind me, because it might result in....GASP....a touchdown! That's bad! Am I right? Giving up a TD is a bad thing, right? Just checking. So why do I watch NFL cornerbacks nonchalantly backpedaling and then pretty much ignoring Randy Moss/Terrell Owens as they sprint past them, instead choosing to lock up a piece of grass in their assigned zone. "Hey man, I have deep help...I can just let him go." Yeah, deep "help". That means there MIGHT be someone back there to HELP you. You still might want to cover that guy, instead of minding a piece of field turf. Last I checked, a square yard of field turf can't catch a football, then gyrate suggestively in your face after it sashays into the endzone pimp-style. One more time: On third and 19, if Randy Moss runs past you, ther's a chance he might actually catch the ball if they throw it to him. That IS possible. You might want to buck the recent trend and try covering him. That's all.
One other quick rant: Why am I hearing this underlying Heisman babble for Glen Dorsey? Since there isn't a clear cut frontrunner(and really, who the hell gives a shit anyway), some morons are trying to bang the drum for Dorsey, since it would be cool to have a defensive guy win it. First of all, Tim Tebow should win it, and it's not even close. He just broke the season record in the SEC for most rushing TDs in a season, has the 2nd best passer rating in the country, and has done all this with a shoulder that keeps popping out of it's socket. But Dorsey? Why should he win it? Because he's the best player on a defense that gave up 40+ to Kentucky? Because he's the best player on a defense that got carved up by JP Wilson? Because he's the best player on a defense that just gave up 465 yards of offense to Ole Miss? Huh? That's actually not very good. Let's go ahead and nip that drivel in the bud, ok?
Season numbers: 72-59 on the numbered. 55%. On to this week.
1. Kansas -2 v Missouri: Both of these smiling genius programs are unbeaten against the spread. So Kansas will probably win by 2 right? Well, maybe, but I like the Jayhawks quite a bit in this one. First, this is being billed as a neutral site game, but it's actually a KU home game that they voluntarily moved to Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is in Missouri, but it's a KU town. Suffice it to say, the crowd will be mostly pro-Kansas. Both of these offenses are very good, but Kansas offers a little more balance. I also think KU has the clear advantage on the defensive side of the ball, and Mangino definitely is the superior coaching micnd compared with Gary Pinkel. If K State hd a set of balls or a couple of firing synapses, they could have run away with the game last week, especially since they outgained the Tigers 250-112 in the first half. I think KU is better in just about every phase.
2. Texas -5 1/2 @ Texas A&M: This is probably Coach Fran's swan song...ask Lloyd Carr how that went for him last week. 91 total yards...yeesh. Last year, in Austin, A&M came in and beat the Horns, who were in a bit of a freefall at the time because of Colt McCoy's problems with his melon. They pressured him, beat him up, and got just enough offense to pull the upset. Texas definitely remembers that, and will be out for revenge, especially since they can see how vulnerable Oklahoma is if Sam Bradford doesn't go on Saturday. Texas's offense has been firing on all cylinders lately, and A&M has had all kinds of trouble stopping good offenses. They key for A&M will be to stop the run and put pressure on Mc Coy, but they are giving up a lot of rushing yards (5.5 ypc on the road) and rank 107th in the country in sacks. They might hang for awhile, but once the emotion wears off, it might get ugly for the Aggies.
3. South Florida -10 1/2 @ Pitt: Another road dog, but this is a bad matchup for Wanny and company. South Florida can stuff the running game, which at this point is Pitt's bread, butter, toast and jam and they are going to be tough on freshman QB Bostick with their attacking style. Pitt has really hung tough the last couple weeks...their D has been good, but I think this is the week that they get opened up like stuck pig.
*****Thursday4. @Arizona St +3 v USC: This is a real lack of respect for a Sun Devil team that is 9-1. I realize that USC is the gold standard in the Pac 10, but they HAVE NOT been that team this year. On the road, their offense has been staunchly pedestrian. They lost to Stanford, struggled with Washington, almost lost at home to Arizona, struggled like crazy with a Cal team that has completely imploded and looked like a bunch of losers in their game at Oregon. Arizona St hung with a much better USC team last year with Dirk Koetter at the helm in Los Angeles. USC is decidedly less explosive on offense now, and say what you will about Dennis Erickson and his mysterious but unconfirmable sliminess, he makes a difference on both sides of the ball. ASU's defense is good, especially at home, and once they get rolling, their offense is solid with good balance, regardless of who is running the ball. I do believe that Arizona St is the better team, and they are at home and are getting a FG. Unless they shit the bed at the mere sight of the false idols, they should be in good shape. There is a lot of value here.
5. Arkansas +13 1/2 @LSU You might want to wait until tomorrow, because the spread might go to 14. Last year, Arkansas outgained LSU despite getting a 3 for 17 performance from QB Casey Dickface, I mean Dick. This year, he's better. Arkansas has been able to play well defensively against LSU in each of the last 2 years, and we all know that LSU, since the Va Tech game, has not been able to blow out anyone. Les Miles catches a break this week because he matches up with a coach that he won't get completely made a fool of by, but he still is at a disadvantage. I think the Hogs have it in them to put together a nice performance. If McFadden and company can really get it going, they are capable of making things very uncomfortable for LSU as they try not to screw up their spot in the MNC game.
6. @UCLA + 1 1/2 v Oregon: Talk about a tough spot. Oregon is coming off a devastating loss against Arizona when they were ranked #2. Pretty much everyone else that has lost this season in that scenario has laid an egg in the following week. Oregon is a huge candidate for that. First of all, they are a completely different team with Brady Leaf at the helm instead of Dennis Dixon. This week, they'll be facing off against a solid defense on the road in UCLA with RB Jonathan Stweart hobbled. Second, their defense has been underwhelming all year, depending on the offense to outscore the other team. That's unlikely to happen this week without turnovers. UCLA might oblige, but I think this matchup favors UCLA. It's a bad spot for the Ducks.
7 @Boston College -14 1/2 v Miami(Fl): Miami has completely given up. It's true that BC has locked up a spot in the ACC title game, but it'll be Senior Day, and Miami is still a team tha people get up for, unfortunately for them. They are completely helpless in the passing game, and BC puts pressure on the QB. With Kyle Wright hurting, there might actually be a Kirby Freeman sighting. If BC puts effort into this one and actually gives a shit, it should be over by the middle of the 3rd quarter.
8. Florida St +14 @ Florida: Florida's defense is not good enough to cover this, in my opinion. Drew Weatherford, as long as he is healthy, can be effective, as he's only thrown 1 interception all year compared to 8TDs. They also moved Preston Parker to RB with good results last week. Defensively, Florida St is jacked up, and they hit hard, leaving open the possibility that Tebow will take some shots on his already injured shoulder. I think FSU will show up and play with emotion, something they did not do 2 years ago in Gainesville when they got whupped.
Others: Oklahoma might be without Sam Bradford, and they for sure will be without De Marco Murray(RB). Their defense remains very shaky against the pass. Oklahoma St is getting 11 1/2 here.If Bradford doesn't play, and they struggle on offense with the backup, that Big 12 South title that seemed a given 3 weeks ago might not happen after all.....I have a hunch that Tennessee takes care of business and wins at kentucky. They need it to get to the SEC title game. Kentucky is in a good spot motivationallty, but they're favored by 3, which I think will work against them. It's against all logic, since UT has been so awful on defense on the road this year, but I can see Ainge pulling out a good performance. I think they'll win, and really like getting points in the process.....I like Utah catching 4 1/2 in he rivalry game with BYU. There's something about BYU that keeps me unsold on them, and Utah has been on fire lately. Their coach is an asshole though......Virginia is a very good dog at home, and they are catching 3 1/2 against Va Tech. Not many people are giving them much of a shot in this one, but I have a feeling they can hold their own.....Clemson generally collapses at this point in the year, and they are favored(2 1/2) against South Carolina on the road. Spurrier has had two weeks to prepare, and this is South Carolina's last chance to actually show some balls and stop someone. Last year, South Carolina completely beat up this Clemson team, and moved the ball at will throughout the entire game. Chances are, with an extra week to prepare, they'll be in position to do so again this year.....I also like Nebraska Friday getting 4 from Colorao. With Joe Ganz under center, they have been almost unstoppable on offense. Colorado...they haven't been doing anything lately.....K State should be able to throw it at will with Josh Freeman and Jordy Nelson. There is no excuse, if they are worth a crap at all to not win as a 1 point dog at Fresno. That's about it for the week. Happy Thanksgiving!!!!
After watching this past Sunday's NFL lineup, I must ask he following question: Does anybody cover anyone in the NFL? Why is it that I can routinely watch Terrell Owens streaking through the Washington secondary, completely ignored by the Redskin DBs. Maybe I'm just naive, or the game has passsed me by or whatever, but if a certain HOF wide receiver runs past you, and you are a cornerback, isn't that somewhat alarming? Like I said, I might be naive, but when I played, my #1 concern or fear was letting a receiver get behind me, because it might result in....GASP....a touchdown! That's bad! Am I right? Giving up a TD is a bad thing, right? Just checking. So why do I watch NFL cornerbacks nonchalantly backpedaling and then pretty much ignoring Randy Moss/Terrell Owens as they sprint past them, instead choosing to lock up a piece of grass in their assigned zone. "Hey man, I have deep help...I can just let him go." Yeah, deep "help". That means there MIGHT be someone back there to HELP you. You still might want to cover that guy, instead of minding a piece of field turf. Last I checked, a square yard of field turf can't catch a football, then gyrate suggestively in your face after it sashays into the endzone pimp-style. One more time: On third and 19, if Randy Moss runs past you, ther's a chance he might actually catch the ball if they throw it to him. That IS possible. You might want to buck the recent trend and try covering him. That's all.
One other quick rant: Why am I hearing this underlying Heisman babble for Glen Dorsey? Since there isn't a clear cut frontrunner(and really, who the hell gives a shit anyway), some morons are trying to bang the drum for Dorsey, since it would be cool to have a defensive guy win it. First of all, Tim Tebow should win it, and it's not even close. He just broke the season record in the SEC for most rushing TDs in a season, has the 2nd best passer rating in the country, and has done all this with a shoulder that keeps popping out of it's socket. But Dorsey? Why should he win it? Because he's the best player on a defense that gave up 40+ to Kentucky? Because he's the best player on a defense that got carved up by JP Wilson? Because he's the best player on a defense that just gave up 465 yards of offense to Ole Miss? Huh? That's actually not very good. Let's go ahead and nip that drivel in the bud, ok?
Season numbers: 72-59 on the numbered. 55%. On to this week.
1. Kansas -2 v Missouri: Both of these smiling genius programs are unbeaten against the spread. So Kansas will probably win by 2 right? Well, maybe, but I like the Jayhawks quite a bit in this one. First, this is being billed as a neutral site game, but it's actually a KU home game that they voluntarily moved to Arrowhead Stadium. Kansas City is in Missouri, but it's a KU town. Suffice it to say, the crowd will be mostly pro-Kansas. Both of these offenses are very good, but Kansas offers a little more balance. I also think KU has the clear advantage on the defensive side of the ball, and Mangino definitely is the superior coaching micnd compared with Gary Pinkel. If K State hd a set of balls or a couple of firing synapses, they could have run away with the game last week, especially since they outgained the Tigers 250-112 in the first half. I think KU is better in just about every phase.
2. Texas -5 1/2 @ Texas A&M: This is probably Coach Fran's swan song...ask Lloyd Carr how that went for him last week. 91 total yards...yeesh. Last year, in Austin, A&M came in and beat the Horns, who were in a bit of a freefall at the time because of Colt McCoy's problems with his melon. They pressured him, beat him up, and got just enough offense to pull the upset. Texas definitely remembers that, and will be out for revenge, especially since they can see how vulnerable Oklahoma is if Sam Bradford doesn't go on Saturday. Texas's offense has been firing on all cylinders lately, and A&M has had all kinds of trouble stopping good offenses. They key for A&M will be to stop the run and put pressure on Mc Coy, but they are giving up a lot of rushing yards (5.5 ypc on the road) and rank 107th in the country in sacks. They might hang for awhile, but once the emotion wears off, it might get ugly for the Aggies.
3. South Florida -10 1/2 @ Pitt: Another road dog, but this is a bad matchup for Wanny and company. South Florida can stuff the running game, which at this point is Pitt's bread, butter, toast and jam and they are going to be tough on freshman QB Bostick with their attacking style. Pitt has really hung tough the last couple weeks...their D has been good, but I think this is the week that they get opened up like stuck pig.
*****Thursday4. @Arizona St +3 v USC: This is a real lack of respect for a Sun Devil team that is 9-1. I realize that USC is the gold standard in the Pac 10, but they HAVE NOT been that team this year. On the road, their offense has been staunchly pedestrian. They lost to Stanford, struggled with Washington, almost lost at home to Arizona, struggled like crazy with a Cal team that has completely imploded and looked like a bunch of losers in their game at Oregon. Arizona St hung with a much better USC team last year with Dirk Koetter at the helm in Los Angeles. USC is decidedly less explosive on offense now, and say what you will about Dennis Erickson and his mysterious but unconfirmable sliminess, he makes a difference on both sides of the ball. ASU's defense is good, especially at home, and once they get rolling, their offense is solid with good balance, regardless of who is running the ball. I do believe that Arizona St is the better team, and they are at home and are getting a FG. Unless they shit the bed at the mere sight of the false idols, they should be in good shape. There is a lot of value here.
5. Arkansas +13 1/2 @LSU You might want to wait until tomorrow, because the spread might go to 14. Last year, Arkansas outgained LSU despite getting a 3 for 17 performance from QB Casey Dickface, I mean Dick. This year, he's better. Arkansas has been able to play well defensively against LSU in each of the last 2 years, and we all know that LSU, since the Va Tech game, has not been able to blow out anyone. Les Miles catches a break this week because he matches up with a coach that he won't get completely made a fool of by, but he still is at a disadvantage. I think the Hogs have it in them to put together a nice performance. If McFadden and company can really get it going, they are capable of making things very uncomfortable for LSU as they try not to screw up their spot in the MNC game.
6. @UCLA + 1 1/2 v Oregon: Talk about a tough spot. Oregon is coming off a devastating loss against Arizona when they were ranked #2. Pretty much everyone else that has lost this season in that scenario has laid an egg in the following week. Oregon is a huge candidate for that. First of all, they are a completely different team with Brady Leaf at the helm instead of Dennis Dixon. This week, they'll be facing off against a solid defense on the road in UCLA with RB Jonathan Stweart hobbled. Second, their defense has been underwhelming all year, depending on the offense to outscore the other team. That's unlikely to happen this week without turnovers. UCLA might oblige, but I think this matchup favors UCLA. It's a bad spot for the Ducks.
7 @Boston College -14 1/2 v Miami(Fl): Miami has completely given up. It's true that BC has locked up a spot in the ACC title game, but it'll be Senior Day, and Miami is still a team tha people get up for, unfortunately for them. They are completely helpless in the passing game, and BC puts pressure on the QB. With Kyle Wright hurting, there might actually be a Kirby Freeman sighting. If BC puts effort into this one and actually gives a shit, it should be over by the middle of the 3rd quarter.
8. Florida St +14 @ Florida: Florida's defense is not good enough to cover this, in my opinion. Drew Weatherford, as long as he is healthy, can be effective, as he's only thrown 1 interception all year compared to 8TDs. They also moved Preston Parker to RB with good results last week. Defensively, Florida St is jacked up, and they hit hard, leaving open the possibility that Tebow will take some shots on his already injured shoulder. I think FSU will show up and play with emotion, something they did not do 2 years ago in Gainesville when they got whupped.
Others: Oklahoma might be without Sam Bradford, and they for sure will be without De Marco Murray(RB). Their defense remains very shaky against the pass. Oklahoma St is getting 11 1/2 here.If Bradford doesn't play, and they struggle on offense with the backup, that Big 12 South title that seemed a given 3 weeks ago might not happen after all.....I have a hunch that Tennessee takes care of business and wins at kentucky. They need it to get to the SEC title game. Kentucky is in a good spot motivationallty, but they're favored by 3, which I think will work against them. It's against all logic, since UT has been so awful on defense on the road this year, but I can see Ainge pulling out a good performance. I think they'll win, and really like getting points in the process.....I like Utah catching 4 1/2 in he rivalry game with BYU. There's something about BYU that keeps me unsold on them, and Utah has been on fire lately. Their coach is an asshole though......Virginia is a very good dog at home, and they are catching 3 1/2 against Va Tech. Not many people are giving them much of a shot in this one, but I have a feeling they can hold their own.....Clemson generally collapses at this point in the year, and they are favored(2 1/2) against South Carolina on the road. Spurrier has had two weeks to prepare, and this is South Carolina's last chance to actually show some balls and stop someone. Last year, South Carolina completely beat up this Clemson team, and moved the ball at will throughout the entire game. Chances are, with an extra week to prepare, they'll be in position to do so again this year.....I also like Nebraska Friday getting 4 from Colorao. With Joe Ganz under center, they have been almost unstoppable on offense. Colorado...they haven't been doing anything lately.....K State should be able to throw it at will with Josh Freeman and Jordy Nelson. There is no excuse, if they are worth a crap at all to not win as a 1 point dog at Fresno. That's about it for the week. Happy Thanksgiving!!!!
Friday, November 16, 2007
Week 12 Musings
Wow...week 12 already. It seems like just yesterday that I was doing the preseason musings, and here we are in the last full schedule week of the year. Kind of sad, but it means that bowl games will be here before too long. Since my entre family has contracted the flu, and a particulary violent, projectile vomiting strain at that, I haven't had a whole lot of time to cap the weekday games. Having said that, I did spend some time on that Oregon/Arizona game from last night. Generally, when you have a Thursday night home dog, the points are attractive, especially when the favorite struggles to stop the pass and the dog can pile up passing yards. I stayed off this one, though, because I didn't see Arizona being able to stop Oregon(with Dixon), and Oregon has a penchant for big plays on D, while Arizona has given up a lot of sacks and negative plays. So I stayed away.
I feel compelled to state this again, though: I really like that Thursday night ESPN crew, especially the broadcasters. Chris Fowler is a solid PBP guy who doesn't get in the way with his own opinions, and if he offers one, it's usually astute. Craig James and Doug Flutie are very likable, and Erin Andrews is there to look at. (I said look at, not listen to). Speaking of Flutie, I thought he was great last night. Generally, in an analyst, you want someone who can give you insight you didn't already have, or point out things you haven't noticed. Granted, not an easy task, but he did it last night. In the defining drive of the game late in the 4th quarter for Arizona, Tuitama tripped over his center, resulting in a fumble when he botched the handoff to the running back. Oregon recovered, and it looked like they were on the way to tying the game, a crippling mistake by Arizona. Generally, when there's a fumble, I might not mentally turn the page because it might have looked like the runner was down or whatever, so you consider the possibility of replay, but in this case, it never occurred to me that a replay might be needed until Flutie remarked that Arizona might want to look for a review since Tuitama's knee might have been down before he handed the ball off. Sure enough, it was. Then, in the delay during which the officials were trying to figure out where to spot the ball, Flutie said, "I don't know what the problem is here, the ball should be spotted on the 38 1/2 yard line." They hadn't even shown the replay yet. When the replay came on, Tuitama's knee clearly was down at the 36, so I thought to myself that the bal should be spotted there. However, just as I was thinking that, Flutie says, "Now remember(dumbass), the ball should be spotted where the ball is, not where his knee touches". DUH. Because there was so much emphasis on looking at the timing of his knee touching, I completely forgot to notice that he was stretching another yard or 2 when reaching to hand it off. Nice work by Flutie there. With as much complaining and hand wringing I do about Mike Patrick, All NFL Fox analysts other than Aikman and that abomination that makes Monday Nights an excruciating, torturesome experience complete with burning sensation, we should point out when a telecast is downright delightful. One other quick note, now that A Rod has re-signed with the Yankees and Barry Bonds has been indicted, we can all pretty much forget about listening to any National sports talk radio for the next month. Unless of course you strive to be bored out of your mind.
Last week was another waste of time, 5-5, right up there with a coin flip. It would have been better if some live home dogs could have shown up instead of completely shitting the bed and themselves. South Carolina never stopped Florida once. Not once. They fumbled the snap on the first play from scrimmage. What a bunch of fags. Oklahoma St was completely dumbfounded by the cosmic greatness that is the Kansas offense, run by the genius man/walrus Mark Mangino. Maybe some of these dogs will fare better this week. Season numbers: 66-53. 55.5%. Need a good week.
1. @Michigan St +3 v Penn State: Well, another week, another dissertation about how Anthony Morelli can't win a game for you on the road. Obviously, Penn State is good defensively, but they are not as good on the road as they are at home. Even last week against Temple, Penn St gave up almost 200 yards in the first half. MSU's offense is really coming around, with good balance running and passing. Purdue never had a chance against them last week. Defensively, they match up well with Penn St, since they aren't very dynamic in the passing game(Morelli again). MSU has stopped the run in home games, and that's Penn St's bread and butter. I just think getting a very good offense +a FG against a team that might struggle with their own offense is a very nice proposition. Also remember that a very subpar MSU team playing in John L Smith's swan song should have beaten Penn St last year in Happy Valley.
2. @Indiana +2 v Purdue: A rivalry game, in that the two teams come from the same state. It really isn't much of a rivalry because Purdue has been pretty much slapping IU around for the past 10 years, or as long as Joe Tiller has been there. Well, having said that, this is probably the best shot IU has had since Randle El left the building, and they really need this game to meet their goal of playing in a bowl game to honor the memory of meathead Terry Hoeppner. It's also a pretty good matchup for them, because IU is really a completely different team at home. Their defense is more aggressive, and the passing game almost always churns out some yards, especially against a pedestrian stop unit like Purdue's. Purdue already has 7 wins, so they are safe as far as bowl games go. There is definitely an emotional edge for Indiana here.
3. Tulsa -15 @Army: Once again, I must ask: Why is so much deference given to the service academies(especially Army) when it comes to setting lines? I used to like to take Army as a dog, since I held this incorrect assumption that discipline and hard work overcome a stunning lack of talent, but obviously, I was wrong. Army has been outgained by every opponent they have played this year, and in most cases it's by more than 200 yards. They are averaging 250 total yards on offense, and they obviously struggle to stop good offenses, which Tulsa is definitely one. There is almost no chance that they can hang with Tulsa on the scoreboard unless there is an inordinate amount of turnovers or if Tulsa just decides to suit up the clinical psychology department. 15 is a lot, but come on.
4. Ohio St -4 @Michigan: Ohio St, of course, is coming off their shit game for this year, but a beautiful one from any Illini homer's vantage point. As a result of that, much discussion has taken place about whether or not OSU's defense is that good in the first place. I tend to think it is, they just ran into an offense that they didn't match up well with. This week, they match up really well with an offense that is banged up at QB and RB. I think it's asking a lot of Michigan to expect to put up points on this OSU defense with a half speed MIke Hart and a hurting Chad Henne, though I do feel that if Henne can get the ball downfield, OSU's secondary is vulnerable. I also think that Todd Boeckman and OSU's OL are a lot better than they showed last week, and Tressel definitely has a Grand Canyon of a coaching advantage here. Expect some steely resolve from the Buckeyes this week. As for the rarity of Michigan as a home dog, the last time OSU came into Ann Arbor they were favored, and they covered, so no fear there.
5. New Mexico +15 @Utah: Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is a total dick. Last week, Wyoming coach Joe Glenn, when speaking to a group of students at an on campus event, jokingly guaranteed that the Cowboys would beat Utah in Salt Lake City last week. Not a good idea, since Utah won 50-0. But Whittingham called for a fake punt when Utah was up 43-0. When asked about it, he made a smarmy remark about coaches guaranteeing victories, and people being held accountable for their actions, etc. Hey asshole, he was talking to a group of students on his campus. Get over yourself. This punk has been a coach for 2 years, Joe Glenn has been one for 20, and he thinks it's up to him to teach a lesson. What a complete jackass. Total dick move...I have a new least favorite coach, and it's good timing too, since it looks like Tuberville might be bolting from Auburn(A&M when coach Fran gets launched) and Carr might be retiring. Anyway, I have a rule to always take more than 2 TDs when a good team is getting the points. New Mexico hasn't been good lately, but they are still 7-3, same as Utah. Also, QB Brian Johnson has been on a tear lately, but he has not been pressured at all, New Mexico, with their oddball 3-3-5 scheme probably will be able to put pressure on them. It's unlikely to expect Utah to dominate yet again, especially since so much attention has been given to the fiasco from last week. If this game was being played a month ago, the spread would probably be around 5 or 6. Lots of value with a Lobo team that can move the ball.
6. @Washington St -3 V Oregon St: This game opened at WAZZOU -1, but unfortunately, that wacko tout Dr Bob is on Washington St, so the line moved all the way to three. It probably won't matter anyway, but it's still frustrating. Oregon St has a nice team, especially defensively, but this is a bad matchup for them. What Washington St does well(throw the ball at home) is precisely what Oregon St does poorly(stop the pass on the road). Washington St might as well not even try running the ball, because they won't be able to, since the Beavs stop everyone on the ground. Like I said, it probably won't matter, though I would never count out a possible brain cramp by resident village idiot Bill Doba. On offense, Oregon St is now starting someone named Lyle Moevao, and in addition to not being able to pronounce his name, I can't for the life of me tell why the Beaver coaching staff thinks he is a D-1 QB. Sean Canfield, a walking turnover himself, is now hurt, and that's too bad, because he was coming around. This Moevao guy, different story. 1 TD, 4 picks, and against Washington, who previously had been absolutely torched, he went 12/24 for 100 yards...you guessed it, a "west coast" type of attack. Since OSU is likely to give up some points here, this guy is going to have to show up. I'm guessing he'll show up, but hs teammates will wish he hadn't.
7. Iowa St +26 1/2 @Kansas: Hey, I know that Kansas is the end all be all, perhaps the most efficient, unselfish bunch of brianiacs ever assembled on a college campus, but there's no way Iowa St should be getting this many points. First off, Kansas is in a supreme look ahead situation with Mizzou on deck. They are unlikely to bring out all the stops here as they probably will be saving things for the biggest game in school history next week. Also, if you look at Iowa St, what have they done to be considered such a shit outfit? They just beat two decent squads back to back in Kansas St and Colorado, they outgained Missouri on the road, hung with Oklahoma in a game that was contested until the final minutes, and outgained 6 or their 12 opponents this year. I guess everyone is still looking at that 56-3 thrashing they took from Texas in a game that every possible thing went against them. Maybe Kansas comes out and smokes them, but if they do, my hat is definitely off to them, because this is about as inconvenient a spot you can come across.
8. Pittsburgh +12 1/2 @Rutgers: Of course, all disclaimers apply with the whole Wanny doesn't know what he's doing thing, his mustache looks terrible, etc, but this isn't a bad matchup for Pitt. They have been able to stop the run consistently this year, so Ray Rice probably won't run all over them, and Mike Teel might not play, leaving some scattershot wildman named Jabu Lovelace as the starter. Even if Teel plays, he has really cooled off and has been accident prone lately. Pitt has a nice running game, and their QB has been ok. This season for Rutgers has been one of those in which things just seem to go wrong for them. Generally, with the talent they have, they should be able to hammer Pitt, but this year, they just haven't put it together.
9. @South Florida -8 V Louisville: Not a good matchup for Louisville coming off a tough luck loss in Morgantown. This team has been so schitzophrenic that I highly doubt that they can patch together two solid performances back to back. This type of attack has been giving Louisville fits, and the fast South Florida defense is one that can force Brohm into some mistakes. The last time Louisville went to Tampa, they were throttled, and they had a huge talent advantage in that one. This time they don't. I think they'll struggle big time this week.
10. LSU -18 @Ole Miss: Ole Miss is a joke. They've got a couple decent players, but if LSU shows up at all, this should be a laugher from the word go. Ole Miss was run all over the field by Northwestern St last week, and they can't stop a soul on defense, regardless if they're at home or on the road. LSU is due to administer an in conference ass kicking, as their offense has picked it up over the past several weeks. It's a 50/50 proposition on whether or not the Rebs get shut out. Some talking heads are making noise this week that LSU needs to have it's head on a swivel this week, but I'm not buying it. This one looks like 44-7 to me.
11. @Kansas St +7 v Missouri: You're looking at the #1 publicly favored game of the week. I of course, being the contrarian, am on the other side. K St has spent the last two weeks embarrasing themselves, first losing to Iowa St(despite running into some tough luck) then getting absolutely steamrolled by Nebraska. I happen to think that the Nebraska game is forgivable, because there was a lot of negative energy that the Cornhuskers were getting off their chest, and Joe Ganz looks to be the real deal. Having said that, this team is proud team, and they will be chomping at the bit to get after the new golden boys of the public. Don't forget that earlier this season, K St put together some nice efforts, including a thorough beating of Texas in Austin. Missouri is entirely capable of a weak offensive performance here, as K St has a tendency to pin their ears back at home, and I think the Missou D, who has been successfully hidden somehow this year, might have a problem with the Jordy Nelson/Josh Freeman combo. As with Kansas, this is a supreme lookahead spot. Not sure if Pinkel can pull off a solid performance here.
12. @Texas Tech +8 1/2 v Oklahoma: The Sooners have not been all that impressive on the road. They got beat up at Colorado in their only loss, had a taffy pull with Iowa St a few weks ago, and gave up a load of passing yards to Tulsa early in the year. Now enter Texas Tech. OU is giving up 8.2 ypa in the passing game on the road, and this will be by far the best passing attack they have faced, not that it's a foreign concept since the Red Raiders are in their division and they play them every year. Texas Tech has done ok defensively at home, so it might not be as high scoring a game as we are all used to in TT games. I'd rather have a few more points, since Tech gives up garbage TDs a lot, but this shapes up as a dangerous spot for OU.
Others......Wake is favored at home(-6) against an improving NC State team. Jim Grobe also won't have the distinct coaching advantage against O'Brien that he normally enjoys week to week...Ga Tech has had all kinds of trouble covering as a favorite this year, and they're laying DD to a deent Tar Heel squad(10)...I think BC has a bounce back game catching 8 1/2 against an "increasingly due for a shit effort" Clemson team. Matt Flynn is due for a big game, especially since people are starting to say that Clemson's QB Cullen Harper might be the best QB in the conference....I know we all like Navy, but they have the worst defense in the country. Consider that they have given up 62(!!!) points to North Texas, 59 to Delaware, 44 to Notre Dame(!!!!!!!), 45 to Pitt, 44 to Wake and 43 to Duke this year. Any team with a defense that bad should never be a 16 point favorite aganst any team with a pulse. NIU barely qualifies as having a pulse. They'll probably never stop Navy all day, but I still have to take a chance that they can come within 16, since Navy would probably have to put up 59 to cover it. Considering NIU gave up 800+ yards to Toledo a couple weeks ago, I guess it could go either way, then huh???....I also have a hunch that Kentucky(+8 1/2) gives Georgia a tough game, but I wonder when the last time was that UK was getting under 10 in Athens? Georgia is playing their third consecutive home game. It's tough to get up in that scenario, and it's an early game, I believe.....I also have a hunch that Wshington rises up and puts together a nice performance at home against Cal. Longshore is close to getting benched, as this is looking more and more like a lost season for the Bears. Jale Locker is out, but backup QB Bonnell has played a lot, and they probably won't miss much with him back there....That's it for the week. Hope everyone does well
I feel compelled to state this again, though: I really like that Thursday night ESPN crew, especially the broadcasters. Chris Fowler is a solid PBP guy who doesn't get in the way with his own opinions, and if he offers one, it's usually astute. Craig James and Doug Flutie are very likable, and Erin Andrews is there to look at. (I said look at, not listen to). Speaking of Flutie, I thought he was great last night. Generally, in an analyst, you want someone who can give you insight you didn't already have, or point out things you haven't noticed. Granted, not an easy task, but he did it last night. In the defining drive of the game late in the 4th quarter for Arizona, Tuitama tripped over his center, resulting in a fumble when he botched the handoff to the running back. Oregon recovered, and it looked like they were on the way to tying the game, a crippling mistake by Arizona. Generally, when there's a fumble, I might not mentally turn the page because it might have looked like the runner was down or whatever, so you consider the possibility of replay, but in this case, it never occurred to me that a replay might be needed until Flutie remarked that Arizona might want to look for a review since Tuitama's knee might have been down before he handed the ball off. Sure enough, it was. Then, in the delay during which the officials were trying to figure out where to spot the ball, Flutie said, "I don't know what the problem is here, the ball should be spotted on the 38 1/2 yard line." They hadn't even shown the replay yet. When the replay came on, Tuitama's knee clearly was down at the 36, so I thought to myself that the bal should be spotted there. However, just as I was thinking that, Flutie says, "Now remember(dumbass), the ball should be spotted where the ball is, not where his knee touches". DUH. Because there was so much emphasis on looking at the timing of his knee touching, I completely forgot to notice that he was stretching another yard or 2 when reaching to hand it off. Nice work by Flutie there. With as much complaining and hand wringing I do about Mike Patrick, All NFL Fox analysts other than Aikman and that abomination that makes Monday Nights an excruciating, torturesome experience complete with burning sensation, we should point out when a telecast is downright delightful. One other quick note, now that A Rod has re-signed with the Yankees and Barry Bonds has been indicted, we can all pretty much forget about listening to any National sports talk radio for the next month. Unless of course you strive to be bored out of your mind.
Last week was another waste of time, 5-5, right up there with a coin flip. It would have been better if some live home dogs could have shown up instead of completely shitting the bed and themselves. South Carolina never stopped Florida once. Not once. They fumbled the snap on the first play from scrimmage. What a bunch of fags. Oklahoma St was completely dumbfounded by the cosmic greatness that is the Kansas offense, run by the genius man/walrus Mark Mangino. Maybe some of these dogs will fare better this week. Season numbers: 66-53. 55.5%. Need a good week.
1. @Michigan St +3 v Penn State: Well, another week, another dissertation about how Anthony Morelli can't win a game for you on the road. Obviously, Penn State is good defensively, but they are not as good on the road as they are at home. Even last week against Temple, Penn St gave up almost 200 yards in the first half. MSU's offense is really coming around, with good balance running and passing. Purdue never had a chance against them last week. Defensively, they match up well with Penn St, since they aren't very dynamic in the passing game(Morelli again). MSU has stopped the run in home games, and that's Penn St's bread and butter. I just think getting a very good offense +a FG against a team that might struggle with their own offense is a very nice proposition. Also remember that a very subpar MSU team playing in John L Smith's swan song should have beaten Penn St last year in Happy Valley.
2. @Indiana +2 v Purdue: A rivalry game, in that the two teams come from the same state. It really isn't much of a rivalry because Purdue has been pretty much slapping IU around for the past 10 years, or as long as Joe Tiller has been there. Well, having said that, this is probably the best shot IU has had since Randle El left the building, and they really need this game to meet their goal of playing in a bowl game to honor the memory of meathead Terry Hoeppner. It's also a pretty good matchup for them, because IU is really a completely different team at home. Their defense is more aggressive, and the passing game almost always churns out some yards, especially against a pedestrian stop unit like Purdue's. Purdue already has 7 wins, so they are safe as far as bowl games go. There is definitely an emotional edge for Indiana here.
3. Tulsa -15 @Army: Once again, I must ask: Why is so much deference given to the service academies(especially Army) when it comes to setting lines? I used to like to take Army as a dog, since I held this incorrect assumption that discipline and hard work overcome a stunning lack of talent, but obviously, I was wrong. Army has been outgained by every opponent they have played this year, and in most cases it's by more than 200 yards. They are averaging 250 total yards on offense, and they obviously struggle to stop good offenses, which Tulsa is definitely one. There is almost no chance that they can hang with Tulsa on the scoreboard unless there is an inordinate amount of turnovers or if Tulsa just decides to suit up the clinical psychology department. 15 is a lot, but come on.
4. Ohio St -4 @Michigan: Ohio St, of course, is coming off their shit game for this year, but a beautiful one from any Illini homer's vantage point. As a result of that, much discussion has taken place about whether or not OSU's defense is that good in the first place. I tend to think it is, they just ran into an offense that they didn't match up well with. This week, they match up really well with an offense that is banged up at QB and RB. I think it's asking a lot of Michigan to expect to put up points on this OSU defense with a half speed MIke Hart and a hurting Chad Henne, though I do feel that if Henne can get the ball downfield, OSU's secondary is vulnerable. I also think that Todd Boeckman and OSU's OL are a lot better than they showed last week, and Tressel definitely has a Grand Canyon of a coaching advantage here. Expect some steely resolve from the Buckeyes this week. As for the rarity of Michigan as a home dog, the last time OSU came into Ann Arbor they were favored, and they covered, so no fear there.
5. New Mexico +15 @Utah: Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is a total dick. Last week, Wyoming coach Joe Glenn, when speaking to a group of students at an on campus event, jokingly guaranteed that the Cowboys would beat Utah in Salt Lake City last week. Not a good idea, since Utah won 50-0. But Whittingham called for a fake punt when Utah was up 43-0. When asked about it, he made a smarmy remark about coaches guaranteeing victories, and people being held accountable for their actions, etc. Hey asshole, he was talking to a group of students on his campus. Get over yourself. This punk has been a coach for 2 years, Joe Glenn has been one for 20, and he thinks it's up to him to teach a lesson. What a complete jackass. Total dick move...I have a new least favorite coach, and it's good timing too, since it looks like Tuberville might be bolting from Auburn(A&M when coach Fran gets launched) and Carr might be retiring. Anyway, I have a rule to always take more than 2 TDs when a good team is getting the points. New Mexico hasn't been good lately, but they are still 7-3, same as Utah. Also, QB Brian Johnson has been on a tear lately, but he has not been pressured at all, New Mexico, with their oddball 3-3-5 scheme probably will be able to put pressure on them. It's unlikely to expect Utah to dominate yet again, especially since so much attention has been given to the fiasco from last week. If this game was being played a month ago, the spread would probably be around 5 or 6. Lots of value with a Lobo team that can move the ball.
6. @Washington St -3 V Oregon St: This game opened at WAZZOU -1, but unfortunately, that wacko tout Dr Bob is on Washington St, so the line moved all the way to three. It probably won't matter anyway, but it's still frustrating. Oregon St has a nice team, especially defensively, but this is a bad matchup for them. What Washington St does well(throw the ball at home) is precisely what Oregon St does poorly(stop the pass on the road). Washington St might as well not even try running the ball, because they won't be able to, since the Beavs stop everyone on the ground. Like I said, it probably won't matter, though I would never count out a possible brain cramp by resident village idiot Bill Doba. On offense, Oregon St is now starting someone named Lyle Moevao, and in addition to not being able to pronounce his name, I can't for the life of me tell why the Beaver coaching staff thinks he is a D-1 QB. Sean Canfield, a walking turnover himself, is now hurt, and that's too bad, because he was coming around. This Moevao guy, different story. 1 TD, 4 picks, and against Washington, who previously had been absolutely torched, he went 12/24 for 100 yards...you guessed it, a "west coast" type of attack. Since OSU is likely to give up some points here, this guy is going to have to show up. I'm guessing he'll show up, but hs teammates will wish he hadn't.
7. Iowa St +26 1/2 @Kansas: Hey, I know that Kansas is the end all be all, perhaps the most efficient, unselfish bunch of brianiacs ever assembled on a college campus, but there's no way Iowa St should be getting this many points. First off, Kansas is in a supreme look ahead situation with Mizzou on deck. They are unlikely to bring out all the stops here as they probably will be saving things for the biggest game in school history next week. Also, if you look at Iowa St, what have they done to be considered such a shit outfit? They just beat two decent squads back to back in Kansas St and Colorado, they outgained Missouri on the road, hung with Oklahoma in a game that was contested until the final minutes, and outgained 6 or their 12 opponents this year. I guess everyone is still looking at that 56-3 thrashing they took from Texas in a game that every possible thing went against them. Maybe Kansas comes out and smokes them, but if they do, my hat is definitely off to them, because this is about as inconvenient a spot you can come across.
8. Pittsburgh +12 1/2 @Rutgers: Of course, all disclaimers apply with the whole Wanny doesn't know what he's doing thing, his mustache looks terrible, etc, but this isn't a bad matchup for Pitt. They have been able to stop the run consistently this year, so Ray Rice probably won't run all over them, and Mike Teel might not play, leaving some scattershot wildman named Jabu Lovelace as the starter. Even if Teel plays, he has really cooled off and has been accident prone lately. Pitt has a nice running game, and their QB has been ok. This season for Rutgers has been one of those in which things just seem to go wrong for them. Generally, with the talent they have, they should be able to hammer Pitt, but this year, they just haven't put it together.
9. @South Florida -8 V Louisville: Not a good matchup for Louisville coming off a tough luck loss in Morgantown. This team has been so schitzophrenic that I highly doubt that they can patch together two solid performances back to back. This type of attack has been giving Louisville fits, and the fast South Florida defense is one that can force Brohm into some mistakes. The last time Louisville went to Tampa, they were throttled, and they had a huge talent advantage in that one. This time they don't. I think they'll struggle big time this week.
10. LSU -18 @Ole Miss: Ole Miss is a joke. They've got a couple decent players, but if LSU shows up at all, this should be a laugher from the word go. Ole Miss was run all over the field by Northwestern St last week, and they can't stop a soul on defense, regardless if they're at home or on the road. LSU is due to administer an in conference ass kicking, as their offense has picked it up over the past several weeks. It's a 50/50 proposition on whether or not the Rebs get shut out. Some talking heads are making noise this week that LSU needs to have it's head on a swivel this week, but I'm not buying it. This one looks like 44-7 to me.
11. @Kansas St +7 v Missouri: You're looking at the #1 publicly favored game of the week. I of course, being the contrarian, am on the other side. K St has spent the last two weeks embarrasing themselves, first losing to Iowa St(despite running into some tough luck) then getting absolutely steamrolled by Nebraska. I happen to think that the Nebraska game is forgivable, because there was a lot of negative energy that the Cornhuskers were getting off their chest, and Joe Ganz looks to be the real deal. Having said that, this team is proud team, and they will be chomping at the bit to get after the new golden boys of the public. Don't forget that earlier this season, K St put together some nice efforts, including a thorough beating of Texas in Austin. Missouri is entirely capable of a weak offensive performance here, as K St has a tendency to pin their ears back at home, and I think the Missou D, who has been successfully hidden somehow this year, might have a problem with the Jordy Nelson/Josh Freeman combo. As with Kansas, this is a supreme lookahead spot. Not sure if Pinkel can pull off a solid performance here.
12. @Texas Tech +8 1/2 v Oklahoma: The Sooners have not been all that impressive on the road. They got beat up at Colorado in their only loss, had a taffy pull with Iowa St a few weks ago, and gave up a load of passing yards to Tulsa early in the year. Now enter Texas Tech. OU is giving up 8.2 ypa in the passing game on the road, and this will be by far the best passing attack they have faced, not that it's a foreign concept since the Red Raiders are in their division and they play them every year. Texas Tech has done ok defensively at home, so it might not be as high scoring a game as we are all used to in TT games. I'd rather have a few more points, since Tech gives up garbage TDs a lot, but this shapes up as a dangerous spot for OU.
Others......Wake is favored at home(-6) against an improving NC State team. Jim Grobe also won't have the distinct coaching advantage against O'Brien that he normally enjoys week to week...Ga Tech has had all kinds of trouble covering as a favorite this year, and they're laying DD to a deent Tar Heel squad(10)...I think BC has a bounce back game catching 8 1/2 against an "increasingly due for a shit effort" Clemson team. Matt Flynn is due for a big game, especially since people are starting to say that Clemson's QB Cullen Harper might be the best QB in the conference....I know we all like Navy, but they have the worst defense in the country. Consider that they have given up 62(!!!) points to North Texas, 59 to Delaware, 44 to Notre Dame(!!!!!!!), 45 to Pitt, 44 to Wake and 43 to Duke this year. Any team with a defense that bad should never be a 16 point favorite aganst any team with a pulse. NIU barely qualifies as having a pulse. They'll probably never stop Navy all day, but I still have to take a chance that they can come within 16, since Navy would probably have to put up 59 to cover it. Considering NIU gave up 800+ yards to Toledo a couple weeks ago, I guess it could go either way, then huh???....I also have a hunch that Kentucky(+8 1/2) gives Georgia a tough game, but I wonder when the last time was that UK was getting under 10 in Athens? Georgia is playing their third consecutive home game. It's tough to get up in that scenario, and it's an early game, I believe.....I also have a hunch that Wshington rises up and puts together a nice performance at home against Cal. Longshore is close to getting benched, as this is looking more and more like a lost season for the Bears. Jale Locker is out, but backup QB Bonnell has played a lot, and they probably won't miss much with him back there....That's it for the week. Hope everyone does well
Friday, November 9, 2007
Week 11 College Football Musings
There weren't any weekday musings this week, and won't be any tomorrow because I can't get any feel for these horseshit vagabond games tomorrow. As for tonight's games, I didn't feel strongly enough about either of the games to recommend them. I stayed off the Louisville/WV game completely because I thought 17 was too much for a good offensive team in Louisville, but didn't trust their defense, since they can't tackle, can't cover anyone, and appear to be coordinated by Wile E Coyoye. Alas, a no play for me. Of course, I was on BYU -7, so after being up 24-9 and 27-15, I was subject to a pleasant 13 play 97 yard drive in the final 3 minutes by TCU, only to be followed by BYU taking a knee at the 2 yard line while TCU had 2 timeouts in their pocket as time expired. Loved that. What a bunch of filthy bastards. Oh well. That's gambling for you. The tally now sits at about 4-173 for me in games like that. BYu has been good enough to do that to me two weeks in a row, though last week was much more interesting, as the backup QB threw a pick 6 while they were up 35-9 with 2 minutes left to blow the -20 wager against Colorado St. From now on, Bronco Mendenhall and his upstanding Mormon studemt atheletes can have relations with themselves continuously for the rest of the year. I don't care. The numbered musings had a workmanlike 6-4 week last week, which brings the season total to 61-48, or about 56 1/2 %. Meh. Decent, I guess. On to this week. I must admit, the lines are pretty solid. No gimmes this week. 1. @Northwestern +2 v Indiana: Back to the well with the 'Cats. At home, they've been averaging 458 yards per game, while IU has given up 448. On the flip side, Indiana, in addition to being much worse defensively on the road, is also much worse offensively, coming up with only 320 per game on offense. In this match up, we can of course expect Indiana to fare better than they have on the road offensively against the generous Cats D, but we can also expect the "Cats offense to get back on track. NW also needs this one more than IU does, and IU foolishly thinks they've got a bowl game wrapped up since they picked up their 6th win last week. Northwestern still needs a win to get bowl eligible. We've seen what happens to IU when they become enamored with themselves before a road game. 2. @Wisconsin +3 V Michigan. Michigan has lived a freakishly charmed life over this "turnaround period" in the last few weeks. In their 3 road games this year, they've been outgained by Northwestern, only to pull that game out, they had Illinois fucking hand a game to them with a myriad of bonehead penalties, muffed punts and an array of other atrocities, and they escaped within an inch of their lives after getting bludgeoned by a .500 Michigan St team. By the way, go on youtube and search Mark Dantonio Michigan, and see how much he appreciated Mike Hart mouthing off about the game. I think I saw smoke coming out of his ears. I like that guy. Speaking of Mike Hart...the Bears appear to be in the market for another"tough runner" with a lot of miles on him who can get you 3 yards a carry. Mike Hart anyone??? If that happens, I'll projectile vomit on the spot. Anyway..back to this game. So Michigan sucks it, and they've been lucky. That pretty much sums up the Badgers the past 24 months. However, I think they are primed for a nice performance after the Ohio St implosion. They pretty much shut down OSU's attack for the first 3 quarters, and Michigan has been getting gashed on the ground. Since it's a home game, they'll have have their backup RB Lance Smith, who runs hard, but can't travel to road games because he's a dirtbag who can't stay out of trouble. So if(when) PJ Hill pusses out and gets an owie on his footie of whatever, at least they'll have a bona-fide RB to complement their underrated passing game. I think they'll win. 3. @South Carolina +7 1/2 v Florida: I realize South Carolina just gave up 1400 yards rushing to Arkansas last week, but they aren't really that bad. Ok, against the run they are, but they won't be that bad against Florida. Earlier in the year, this was a pretty solid defensive squad, so I think you'll see an inspired performance from their defense. On the other hand, I haven't seen any evidence that would indicate that Florida can go on the road and stop South Carolina. Worse offenses have shredded this Gator D, especially on the road. Definite value on a good team catching more than a TD at home against a shaky D with a banged up running QB. 4. @Oklahoma St +6 v Kansas: At home, this Oklahoma St team pretty much runs up big numbers on everybody. That would include Kansas, despite their scorched earth numbers on both sides of the ball. Kansas gave up 400+ through the air at home against Nebraska last week, although that was strictly garbage time for the Jayhawks. Nonetheless, this remains the best opportunity for Kansas to stumble heading into the showdown with Missouri in a couple weeks. Last year, Okie St, with heavy assistance from WR Adarius Bowman completely riddled Kansas's secondary to the tune of 605 total yards. so they have a template. This smells like a trap for Kansas...I think the 'Pokes might spring one on 'em. Kansas is also due for some bad fortune. 5. Auburn +2 @Georgia: This pains me. It really does. But hey, if this musing loses, at least I can revel in Tommy Tuberville's misery, right? Since losing in week 3 to Mississippi St, Auburn Qb Brandon Cox has completed 65% of his passes for a 6/1 ratio. This includes road games with Arkansas, LSU and Florida, so it hasn't exactly been against chopped liver. Also, their defense has figured out a way to pretty much shut down Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. Those are 4 of the most dynamic players in college football right now, so forgive me if I say they won't be impressed with Matthew Stafford. Georgia's defense has also given up some yards on occasion. This game will go down to the wire, but I think Georgia has another loss in them. 6. Air Force -3 1/2 @ Notre Dame: There really isn't any reason to not take Air Force here. Jimmy Claussen is back under center, and he's only been good for 4 yards an attempt on the year. ND is running it at less than 2 ypc, and AF has only been giving up 18 ppg against good offenses in the Mountain West. We know they'll run it on ND, just like everyone else has, and just how you would expect a 1-8 team to behave. Again, I must pontificate: A 7-3 team laying only a FG to a 1-8 team doesn't make sense. There just isn't a good reason to not fade ND here. Maybe they break out of it and win this one. If so, hey, God love 'em. 7. @Nc St -3 1/2 v North Carolina: This is dangerous because we are talking about a rivalry game here, but I think(as I mentioned last week) that Tom O'Brien has this thing turned around. They've developed a nice passing attack, and it appears that they may have rid themselves of the evildoers that were still loitering around from the Amato regime. Carolina is getting better, but might have hit a wall. At this point, they aren't catching any breaks, and if you were to ask me if I would be interested in betting on them on the road while only catching 3 1/2.....well, not even with your money, friend. 8. UTEP -4 1/2 @ Tulane: First of all, I love Matt Forte, the RB from Tulane who will be playing on Sundays next year, and yes, he will run all over UTEP in this game. However, Tulane will find themselves just as helpless against UTEP's passing attack as UTEP will against Forte. In order to win, you have to have some semblance of a passing game, just in case your RB gets stopped occasionally, or if you get an overzealous umpire flagging you for holding. Sadly, Tulane doesn't really have one yet. This game might shape up similarly to Tulane's game last week with Tulsa. Tulsa also can't stop the run, and Forte only ran for 103 on them.That one ended up 48-25 on a 6 1/2 point spread. Even if Forte gets 300+, I think there is a good chance UTEP still lays 45 on Tulane and makes it a moot point. 9 Arkansas pk @ Tennessee: In order for the Vols to stop Mc Fadden and Jones, they will have to be at their best, completely fired up and effecient in all phases on defense. Unfortunately for them, this game is the 12:30 Jefferson Pilot game. Home teams just don't see as much of an advantage in that game, as opposed to the 3:30 CBS game or the ESPN night game. So far this year, Tennessee has been absolutely stampeded by the dynamic offenses they have played, such as Cal, Florida, South Carolina, and even Bama and that queer JP Wilson. (In crunch time, not only does he get sacked when you absolutely cannot get sacked, not only does he fumble when you absolutely cannot fumble, but he finds a way to throw the ball back to his own 3 yard line where only 3 LSU guys have a shot at recovering it. He couldn't have conjured up a way to fail more spectactularly. Kudos to you, Asshole!!!!) Now they face Arkansas having struggled all year to stop the run. South Carolina has struggled to stop the run too. That didn't work out too well for them, and I suspect it won't work out too well for UT either. Ainge better bring the Ben Gay Saturday, because he's going to need a boatload of points. 10 @ Wazzou -10 1/2 V Stanford: I think the Cardinal has pretty much thrown in the towel. They overachieved for Harbaugh there over a 3-4 week period and got some nice wins, but they are just out of gas. Washington, who cannot stop a soul, help them to 9 points last week and outgained them by 250 yards. Washington St has been very tough at home this year, and should be able to almost name the score if they show up. Stanford has little chance to stop Alex Brink. There is some risk of a backdoor if Wazzou pulls a BYu and and goes into sleep mode in the second half, but as long as ther isn't a slew of 22 yard Fgs, it shouldn't matter. others: Purdue is a bunch of losers. They hung with Penn State and covered, but pulled the run of the mill loser move by settling for FGs all day, and then coughed up the lead when Penn St decided to take it from them. Then, after the game, all the quotes from Purdue focused on the fact that they "competed" and how they were "proud of their effort". Hey ladies! It's Penn St!! We're not talking about the Persian army here. They're just ok. Shit, if all they want at Purdue is the ability to not get their doors blown off by mediocre teams on the road, then maybe the Minnesota wannabe element there has the right idea and Tiller should be launched. Anyway, these chicken hearted, pantywaste, lily liver, pussified, crybaby, creampuff rectal bandits play Michigan St this week. On principle, I'll be taking the Spartans. At least they're pissed off that they lost last week......Wake is catching 9 1/2 against a Clemson team that is way way way way way overdue for a crap effort.......Navy is laying 15 to North Texas. There is virtually no chance that we'll see Navy's punter this week. My only hesitation is that North Texas can throw it and Navy might still be drunk on Ovaltine from thir ND victory last week.....Memphis is getting 16 1/2 against Southern Miss this week. There have been times when So Miss has looked awful on both sides of the ball. It's dangerous for them to be laying this much against a team that has averaged 400+ through the air recently.....Speaking of yardage through the air, Texas has been struggling all year in stopping the pass, and Texas Tech is coming to town. I'd like more than 6 1/2 though, because Mike Leach gets stopped on 4th down a lot, leading to some skewed yardage numbers, and he don't do much of that there stoppin of the other team, which is a bad thing. I still lean to Tech though.....I've got a sneaking suspicscion that UCLA jumps up and bites Arizona St. UCLA is getting 7 1/2, and the one thing they can do is pressure the QB. Rudy Carpenter has been getting sacked a lot, so it might not be a good matchup for him, especially coming off their downer of a loss to the Ducks last week.....Well, that about does it for this week. Good luck to all, and Go Illini!!! |
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Week 10 Musings
Note the timestamp of the attached. I greatly apologize for not getting these on. Looks like they won't help anyone....
----- Forwarded Message ----From: Peter LavetteTo: asavick@hotmail.com; kevin.haas@chrobinson.com; jonathan hyun ; jefflavette@yahoo.com; mikelavette@yahoo.com; bradlazzari@hotmail.comSent: Friday, November 2, 2007 8:54:35 AMSubject: Week 10 Musings
Well shit. The Thursday night game didn't go well.I'm glad I hustled to get that winner out there. I hate starting off on a losing foot. The last few weeks have been good for weekday games, but not tonight. I guess I should have known that the anemic Va Tech offense would confidently pile up almost 500 yards in this one. That couldn't have been Sean Glennon playing QB for Va Tech. Had to be Tom Brady. Well, he got sacked 7 times, so it must have been Sean Glennon. I think the Goergia Tech game plan was this: "Lets put pressure on the QB, but our coverage strategy will be to sprint as far away from the receiver as possible at the snap, watch him catch it, then miss a tackle and escort him out of bounds. While we're at it, let's immediately abandon our bread and butter run game and have our scatterbrained QB chuck it into triple coverage 5 times. Hey, let's get fooled on a couple "oldest trick in the book moves" like an on-sides kick or a naked bootleg too!!"
I loved hearing the following from Chris Fowler on the play by play: "The Hokies are really moving the ball. That's something they aren't used to." and "Glennon, for the first time all year looks to be in control". "Glennon is uncharateristically accurate and confident tonight." All this on the road against the #7 defense in the country. Whatever.
Last week, the numbered musings went 7-3, but we got boned on Tulane when their kicker shanked a 22 yard FG with less than 2 minutes left, up 6, then watched Memphis blitzkrieg down the field and punch in a TD with 15 seconds left to win by a point. That sucked big time. I don't know what's worse, the fact that the game ended like that, or that I was upstairs on the internet watching the play by play of a Tulane/Memphis game. De-gen-er-ate.
Also, while we're at it, let's send out a big, bony, extended middle fingert out to Comcast. This week, there is a bunch of negative press for them because the Wisconsin/Ohio St game will be on the Big Ten Network, and they still haven't reached an agreement, because they claim they don't want to force their customers to pay more. Now this week, they raised their prices, forcing their customers to pay more, with no appreciable increase in service or programming. Nice. Yet they still have the ability to spend their entire advertising budget on a smear campaign against BTN. I think I've heard these radio commercials more than 100 times. Hey assholes!! Why not take all that cash you spent on jading the public and use it to come to an agreement to give your customers a chance to get the programming they want? The commercials are laughable too. They pretty much say that the best Big ten games are already on cable(ESPN, etc) and then go on to brag that Comcast will be carrying more than 100 football games this year, including the NFL regular season, and ENTIRE PLAYOFF SCHEDULE. Hey, jagoff....if I have a 1973 Sylvania black and white tv and a creatively manipulated coat hanger, I can get the entire NFL playoff schedule, so shut the hell up. If i'm a Comcast subscriber and want to watch the Wisconsin/Ohio St game in my house, I can't do that because you refuse to give me the option. You say that they will charge a mandatory fee to all cable subscibers, and not everyone wants the Big ten Network. Well, ESPN charges one, and not everyone watches ESPN. Home Shopping Network charges one, and I can damn well guarantee you that not everyone watches that. So what's the difference? Luckily for me, I'm not a Comcast subscriber.
On to the games...
2. Rutgers +2 @Connecticut: UConn has done a nice job this year, thanks mostly to their defense and some nice fortune, especially that joke of a punt return TD against Lawvul a couple Fridays ago. They're 7-1. I can't imagine they continue this run, especially since they have just won two emotional games in a row. Rutgers is frankly a better team than they are. Uconn is the kind of team that will kepp knocking people off when they are dogged, but crash and burn the first time they are favored. That's the case this week. If Mike Teel gets his head out of his ass, they can put up some big plays on the Huskies, and Ray Rice is Ray Rice.
3. @Indiana -6 1/2 v Ball St: Indiana pretty much has to have this game to get bowl eligible. They have more chances later, but there are no gimmies left on their schedule after this. Ball St, as we know if good offensively, but on the road, they are completely helpless defensively. The Illini didn't completely run over them last week, but that is simply not a good offense right now. Indiana has a good offense, and against a team that gives up 5+ ypc and over 8.5 per pass attempt on the road, Kellen Lewis should have himself a nice afternoon. Defensively, Indiana is much better at home, and they will be able to pressure Nate Davis, who looked really beat up last week. It's asking a lot of Testicle Tech to play a 3rd straight road game and compete two weeks in a row against Big Ten competition. Also, Indiana has taken care of business against MAC opponents under this coaching staff.
4. NC State +11 1/2 @Miami(FL): First off, Kyle Wright is banged up, so we might see Kirby Freeman at QB for the Canes. That's bad for Miami. Second, this is a noon(EST) tilt, so the atmosphere in the Orange Bowl will be comparable to an activity room at your local old folks home. NC St is finally resembling a decent outfit. I guess it took O'Brien more time than expected to get that handled, but it looks like he's on his way now. They're on a two week winning streak, and both the offense and defense have settled in. QB Daniel Evans threw for 300+ on Virginia last week, and they've had a couple young guys emerge on both sides of the ball. Miami really shouldn't be favored by DD against any conference foes, except maybe Duke..or if Notre Dame was in the ACC.
5. @Kansas -18(late note...now 20) v Nebraska: I really try to avoid big favorites at this time of year like the plague, but this is looking like a supreme ass kicking waiting to happen. Consider this: You are Nebraska. You have somehow played so poorly on defense that you are DEAD LAST in rushing defense in the country and 101st in toal defense overall. You've been outgained 8 games in a row, including home games with Ball St and Iowa St. You got embarrassed on your home field twice in a row to the point where your coach almost certainly will be fired because you have given such an anemic performance. Fueled by unrelenting criticism and the desire to save your coach's job, you pick youself off the mat and give an inspired performance on the road as a 21 point dog only to blow a 17-3 second half lead and get your heart broken because, again, you allow someone to shove the ball down your throat when the chips are down. So now you slunk off, beaten and deflated to play another road game..this time against the #8 team in the country who runs the ball extremely well. By the way, this team has been spending the better part of the last half century getting humiliated by you, and would like nothing better than to whip your sorry ass up and down the field and make you like it. If they beat you 107-0, they'll be about 1/20th the way back to making up for your previous transgressions. One more thing: Your QB got hurt in that game last week, so you'll be starting a brand new QB who has never taken a snap against the #3 D in the country. You'll also be running a conservative version of the West Coast offense. It does't look good for you this week, does it?
6. Navy + 3 1/2 @ Notre Dame: Here's a question: If Navy was playing on the road against any other 1-7 team with the worst offense the nation has seen in 3 years, what would the spread be? Say, if they were playing Mississippi St from 3 years ago? Would it be Navy -10? Probably. Notre Dame in their home games, has been outgained 413 to 178, and they've given up 5.4 yards per carry. Starting with the USC game last year, they been outgained by the opponents by 286, 258, 151, 300,151, 142, 237 and 197 yards. That's downright Florida International-ish. Navy, as we know, runs it on everyone. They will run it on Notre Dame. Navy struggles to stop good offenses, but this isn't a....I don't even need to say it do I? Hell, if Navy can't get this thing done this year, they will never do it. They have also seemed to play a lot better at Notre Dame in this series than on the various neutral sites they've played at. If ND covers this one, hats off to them, but it will mean that some things will have happened that have not happened this year. Paul Johnson is a damn good coach, so I'm thinking the bye week won't create an advantage for Charlie Manatee.
7. South Carolina +5 1/2 @Arkansas: One of two unlikely things is going to happen in this game. Either South Carolina and the OBC are going to lose 3 in a row, or Arkansas is going to lose their 3rd SEC home game of the year. These teams are evenly matched in my opinion, but I think there is a vast advantage between the coaching staffs. There also might exist a template on how to stop the Arkansas running game authored by Auburn a couple weeks back. South Carolina struggles to stop the run, but it really hasn't hurt them all that much so far this year, and they will not struggle to score on the Hogs. 5 1/2 points is too much for a South Carolina team that really needs a win.
8. @Ohio St -15 1/2 v Wisconsin: Another large favorite that I am not crazy about, but this is another game that I can easily see getting to 38-7. Wisconsin's defense has improved lately, but it was against teams that pretty much just laid down for them. Every time Indiana got anything going last week, they succumbed to the mystique of Camp Randall or whatever voodoo Wisconsin has placed on opponents to make them hand the Badgers games over the past couple years. They just coughed up ball after ball, thrusting it into ther waiting breadbaskets of Badger defenders. There will be no such mystique this week. Ohio St, in my opinion has a legitimately great offense, probably better than last year, nd Wisconsin is going to have all kinds of trouble on offense, since PJ Hill almost certainly will puss out. He's already hobbled...just wait until he gets a couple hard hits laid on him. No Lance Smith on the road, so they'll be stuck with the third stringer, and the Buckeyes will pin their ears back. Wisconsin has struggled to stop people on the road, and they will certainly struggle to move the ball on that defense(rated #1 in the nation by the way.)
9. @Alabama +7 1/2 V LSU: I can't resisit. With as many tough ballgames that LSU has been in lately, this one just looks like another one on the schedule for them. had it been earlier in the season, I think they would get jacked for it, but at this point, how many emotionally draining games can you get up for? Saban will have the monumental coaching advantage in this one, and Bama is on the upswing, JP Wilson doing a good job over the past couple weeks. We've also seen that despite their emotion, and their talent, LSU is playing to it's competition. If it's a close game, I think Miles' luck is going to run out. Also, Ryan Perrilloux is suspended so that's a facet of the game that Bama doesn't have to prepare for. The home crowd will be whipped up into a frenzy, and I think Bama is good enough to win this one outright. I'll definitely take more than a TD.
10. @Northwestern -1 1/2 v Iowa: Iowa's M.O. this year has been perceived as a good D, weak O situation. The weak O has definitely been true, especially in the passing game. I still think Jake Christensen is better than he has shown, but he's had so many injuries and suspensions in the passing game that he hasn't had much of a chance. On the road, they are averaging only 227 yards and 9 points a game. When they can run the ball, they are competent on offense, but they are only doing so at 2.6 yards a pop on the road. There might be some concern that NU might get overpowered by Iowa, but the 'Cats went into iowa City last year and completely stuffed a better Iowa team than this one(21-7) with a 180 yard advantage. For the record, Iowa's D has been a myth on the road too, as Iowa st, penn St and Purdue all outgained them severely, rolling up 400+ yards in the process. We all know that Northwestern moves the ball on everyone, especially at home. They become bowl eligible with a win. I think it's unlikely that Iowa will hold them to the 17 or so they'll need to in order to win.
Others: I think Mizzou is due for a clunker, and Colorado(+4) is definitely due for a strong game at home after their last home perfrmance against Kansas. Missouri generally runs out of gas this time of year, especially on the road. Kudos to them if they win, because it will probably set up an unlikely showdown with Kansas the last week of the season.....I like Oitt to cover 13 against Syracuse at home. Syracuse should be getting at least 17 against any decent team on the road. Pitt should be able to run it down their throats, adn at the same time stuff Syracuse's anemic offense..... I'll be on all 3 dogs in the Friday night games(@NM St +7 v Nevada, Temple +9 @ Ohio U, Akron +7 @BG) None of these MAC teams are good enough to be favored that much against anyone. As a matter of fact, the dog has covered in almost every MAC game this year. It's pretty uncanny. NM St/Nevada should be a shootout, assuming Chase Holbrook plays for the Aggies. That one os for fun more than anything else.....I think Okie St will beat Texas. This Texas team just isn't that great on either side of the ball, and Okie St has shown that they can score, especially against a lazy defense like Texas.they've also shown some spunk on defense. If Texas doesn't play very well, they will get beat.....I'd be all over Oregon St +15 at USC if their tough running back Yvenson bernard were healthy, but he's doubtful. USC will struggle to score on them unless they bring Carson Palmer and Mike Williams back from the NFL. I'm merely on them this week instead of all over them because of Bernard's injury.
take care! That's it for the week. Hopefully, we'll turn the corner this week.
----- Forwarded Message ----From: Peter Lavette
Well shit. The Thursday night game didn't go well.I'm glad I hustled to get that winner out there. I hate starting off on a losing foot. The last few weeks have been good for weekday games, but not tonight. I guess I should have known that the anemic Va Tech offense would confidently pile up almost 500 yards in this one. That couldn't have been Sean Glennon playing QB for Va Tech. Had to be Tom Brady. Well, he got sacked 7 times, so it must have been Sean Glennon. I think the Goergia Tech game plan was this: "Lets put pressure on the QB, but our coverage strategy will be to sprint as far away from the receiver as possible at the snap, watch him catch it, then miss a tackle and escort him out of bounds. While we're at it, let's immediately abandon our bread and butter run game and have our scatterbrained QB chuck it into triple coverage 5 times. Hey, let's get fooled on a couple "oldest trick in the book moves" like an on-sides kick or a naked bootleg too!!"
I loved hearing the following from Chris Fowler on the play by play: "The Hokies are really moving the ball. That's something they aren't used to." and "Glennon, for the first time all year looks to be in control". "Glennon is uncharateristically accurate and confident tonight." All this on the road against the #7 defense in the country. Whatever.
Last week, the numbered musings went 7-3, but we got boned on Tulane when their kicker shanked a 22 yard FG with less than 2 minutes left, up 6, then watched Memphis blitzkrieg down the field and punch in a TD with 15 seconds left to win by a point. That sucked big time. I don't know what's worse, the fact that the game ended like that, or that I was upstairs on the internet watching the play by play of a Tulane/Memphis game. De-gen-er-ate.
Also, while we're at it, let's send out a big, bony, extended middle fingert out to Comcast. This week, there is a bunch of negative press for them because the Wisconsin/Ohio St game will be on the Big Ten Network, and they still haven't reached an agreement, because they claim they don't want to force their customers to pay more. Now this week, they raised their prices, forcing their customers to pay more, with no appreciable increase in service or programming. Nice. Yet they still have the ability to spend their entire advertising budget on a smear campaign against BTN. I think I've heard these radio commercials more than 100 times. Hey assholes!! Why not take all that cash you spent on jading the public and use it to come to an agreement to give your customers a chance to get the programming they want? The commercials are laughable too. They pretty much say that the best Big ten games are already on cable(ESPN, etc) and then go on to brag that Comcast will be carrying more than 100 football games this year, including the NFL regular season, and ENTIRE PLAYOFF SCHEDULE. Hey, jagoff....if I have a 1973 Sylvania black and white tv and a creatively manipulated coat hanger, I can get the entire NFL playoff schedule, so shut the hell up. If i'm a Comcast subscriber and want to watch the Wisconsin/Ohio St game in my house, I can't do that because you refuse to give me the option. You say that they will charge a mandatory fee to all cable subscibers, and not everyone wants the Big ten Network. Well, ESPN charges one, and not everyone watches ESPN. Home Shopping Network charges one, and I can damn well guarantee you that not everyone watches that. So what's the difference? Luckily for me, I'm not a Comcast subscriber.
On to the games...
2. Rutgers +2 @Connecticut: UConn has done a nice job this year, thanks mostly to their defense and some nice fortune, especially that joke of a punt return TD against Lawvul a couple Fridays ago. They're 7-1. I can't imagine they continue this run, especially since they have just won two emotional games in a row. Rutgers is frankly a better team than they are. Uconn is the kind of team that will kepp knocking people off when they are dogged, but crash and burn the first time they are favored. That's the case this week. If Mike Teel gets his head out of his ass, they can put up some big plays on the Huskies, and Ray Rice is Ray Rice.
3. @Indiana -6 1/2 v Ball St: Indiana pretty much has to have this game to get bowl eligible. They have more chances later, but there are no gimmies left on their schedule after this. Ball St, as we know if good offensively, but on the road, they are completely helpless defensively. The Illini didn't completely run over them last week, but that is simply not a good offense right now. Indiana has a good offense, and against a team that gives up 5+ ypc and over 8.5 per pass attempt on the road, Kellen Lewis should have himself a nice afternoon. Defensively, Indiana is much better at home, and they will be able to pressure Nate Davis, who looked really beat up last week. It's asking a lot of Testicle Tech to play a 3rd straight road game and compete two weeks in a row against Big Ten competition. Also, Indiana has taken care of business against MAC opponents under this coaching staff.
4. NC State +11 1/2 @Miami(FL): First off, Kyle Wright is banged up, so we might see Kirby Freeman at QB for the Canes. That's bad for Miami. Second, this is a noon(EST) tilt, so the atmosphere in the Orange Bowl will be comparable to an activity room at your local old folks home. NC St is finally resembling a decent outfit. I guess it took O'Brien more time than expected to get that handled, but it looks like he's on his way now. They're on a two week winning streak, and both the offense and defense have settled in. QB Daniel Evans threw for 300+ on Virginia last week, and they've had a couple young guys emerge on both sides of the ball. Miami really shouldn't be favored by DD against any conference foes, except maybe Duke..or if Notre Dame was in the ACC.
5. @Kansas -18(late note...now 20) v Nebraska: I really try to avoid big favorites at this time of year like the plague, but this is looking like a supreme ass kicking waiting to happen. Consider this: You are Nebraska. You have somehow played so poorly on defense that you are DEAD LAST in rushing defense in the country and 101st in toal defense overall. You've been outgained 8 games in a row, including home games with Ball St and Iowa St. You got embarrassed on your home field twice in a row to the point where your coach almost certainly will be fired because you have given such an anemic performance. Fueled by unrelenting criticism and the desire to save your coach's job, you pick youself off the mat and give an inspired performance on the road as a 21 point dog only to blow a 17-3 second half lead and get your heart broken because, again, you allow someone to shove the ball down your throat when the chips are down. So now you slunk off, beaten and deflated to play another road game..this time against the #8 team in the country who runs the ball extremely well. By the way, this team has been spending the better part of the last half century getting humiliated by you, and would like nothing better than to whip your sorry ass up and down the field and make you like it. If they beat you 107-0, they'll be about 1/20th the way back to making up for your previous transgressions. One more thing: Your QB got hurt in that game last week, so you'll be starting a brand new QB who has never taken a snap against the #3 D in the country. You'll also be running a conservative version of the West Coast offense. It does't look good for you this week, does it?
6. Navy + 3 1/2 @ Notre Dame: Here's a question: If Navy was playing on the road against any other 1-7 team with the worst offense the nation has seen in 3 years, what would the spread be? Say, if they were playing Mississippi St from 3 years ago? Would it be Navy -10? Probably. Notre Dame in their home games, has been outgained 413 to 178, and they've given up 5.4 yards per carry. Starting with the USC game last year, they been outgained by the opponents by 286, 258, 151, 300,151, 142, 237 and 197 yards. That's downright Florida International-ish. Navy, as we know, runs it on everyone. They will run it on Notre Dame. Navy struggles to stop good offenses, but this isn't a....I don't even need to say it do I? Hell, if Navy can't get this thing done this year, they will never do it. They have also seemed to play a lot better at Notre Dame in this series than on the various neutral sites they've played at. If ND covers this one, hats off to them, but it will mean that some things will have happened that have not happened this year. Paul Johnson is a damn good coach, so I'm thinking the bye week won't create an advantage for Charlie Manatee.
7. South Carolina +5 1/2 @Arkansas: One of two unlikely things is going to happen in this game. Either South Carolina and the OBC are going to lose 3 in a row, or Arkansas is going to lose their 3rd SEC home game of the year. These teams are evenly matched in my opinion, but I think there is a vast advantage between the coaching staffs. There also might exist a template on how to stop the Arkansas running game authored by Auburn a couple weeks back. South Carolina struggles to stop the run, but it really hasn't hurt them all that much so far this year, and they will not struggle to score on the Hogs. 5 1/2 points is too much for a South Carolina team that really needs a win.
8. @Ohio St -15 1/2 v Wisconsin: Another large favorite that I am not crazy about, but this is another game that I can easily see getting to 38-7. Wisconsin's defense has improved lately, but it was against teams that pretty much just laid down for them. Every time Indiana got anything going last week, they succumbed to the mystique of Camp Randall or whatever voodoo Wisconsin has placed on opponents to make them hand the Badgers games over the past couple years. They just coughed up ball after ball, thrusting it into ther waiting breadbaskets of Badger defenders. There will be no such mystique this week. Ohio St, in my opinion has a legitimately great offense, probably better than last year, nd Wisconsin is going to have all kinds of trouble on offense, since PJ Hill almost certainly will puss out. He's already hobbled...just wait until he gets a couple hard hits laid on him. No Lance Smith on the road, so they'll be stuck with the third stringer, and the Buckeyes will pin their ears back. Wisconsin has struggled to stop people on the road, and they will certainly struggle to move the ball on that defense(rated #1 in the nation by the way.)
9. @Alabama +7 1/2 V LSU: I can't resisit. With as many tough ballgames that LSU has been in lately, this one just looks like another one on the schedule for them. had it been earlier in the season, I think they would get jacked for it, but at this point, how many emotionally draining games can you get up for? Saban will have the monumental coaching advantage in this one, and Bama is on the upswing, JP Wilson doing a good job over the past couple weeks. We've also seen that despite their emotion, and their talent, LSU is playing to it's competition. If it's a close game, I think Miles' luck is going to run out. Also, Ryan Perrilloux is suspended so that's a facet of the game that Bama doesn't have to prepare for. The home crowd will be whipped up into a frenzy, and I think Bama is good enough to win this one outright. I'll definitely take more than a TD.
10. @Northwestern -1 1/2 v Iowa: Iowa's M.O. this year has been perceived as a good D, weak O situation. The weak O has definitely been true, especially in the passing game. I still think Jake Christensen is better than he has shown, but he's had so many injuries and suspensions in the passing game that he hasn't had much of a chance. On the road, they are averaging only 227 yards and 9 points a game. When they can run the ball, they are competent on offense, but they are only doing so at 2.6 yards a pop on the road. There might be some concern that NU might get overpowered by Iowa, but the 'Cats went into iowa City last year and completely stuffed a better Iowa team than this one(21-7) with a 180 yard advantage. For the record, Iowa's D has been a myth on the road too, as Iowa st, penn St and Purdue all outgained them severely, rolling up 400+ yards in the process. We all know that Northwestern moves the ball on everyone, especially at home. They become bowl eligible with a win. I think it's unlikely that Iowa will hold them to the 17 or so they'll need to in order to win.
Others: I think Mizzou is due for a clunker, and Colorado(+4) is definitely due for a strong game at home after their last home perfrmance against Kansas. Missouri generally runs out of gas this time of year, especially on the road. Kudos to them if they win, because it will probably set up an unlikely showdown with Kansas the last week of the season.....I like Oitt to cover 13 against Syracuse at home. Syracuse should be getting at least 17 against any decent team on the road. Pitt should be able to run it down their throats, adn at the same time stuff Syracuse's anemic offense..... I'll be on all 3 dogs in the Friday night games(@NM St +7 v Nevada, Temple +9 @ Ohio U, Akron +7 @BG) None of these MAC teams are good enough to be favored that much against anyone. As a matter of fact, the dog has covered in almost every MAC game this year. It's pretty uncanny. NM St/Nevada should be a shootout, assuming Chase Holbrook plays for the Aggies. That one os for fun more than anything else.....I think Okie St will beat Texas. This Texas team just isn't that great on either side of the ball, and Okie St has shown that they can score, especially against a lazy defense like Texas.they've also shown some spunk on defense. If Texas doesn't play very well, they will get beat.....I'd be all over Oregon St +15 at USC if their tough running back Yvenson bernard were healthy, but he's doubtful. USC will struggle to score on them unless they bring Carson Palmer and Mike Williams back from the NFL. I'm merely on them this week instead of all over them because of Bernard's injury.
take care! That's it for the week. Hopefully, we'll turn the corner this week.
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