Week 11 College Football Musings

There weren't any weekday musings this week, and won't be any tomorrow because I can't get any feel for these horseshit vagabond games tomorrow. As for tonight's games, I didn't feel strongly enough about either of the games to recommend them. I stayed off the Louisville/WV game completely because I thought 17 was too much for a good offensive team in Louisville, but didn't trust their defense, since they can't tackle, can't cover anyone, and appear to be coordinated by Wile E Coyoye. Alas, a no play for me. Of course, I was on BYU -7, so after being up 24-9 and 27-15, I was subject to a pleasant 13 play 97 yard drive in the final 3 minutes by TCU, only to be followed by BYU taking a knee at the 2 yard line while TCU had 2 timeouts in their pocket as time expired. Loved that. What a bunch of filthy bastards. Oh well. That's gambling for you. The tally now sits at about 4-173 for me in games like that. BYu has been good enough to do that to me two weeks in a row, though last week was much more interesting, as the backup QB threw a pick 6 while they were up 35-9 with 2 minutes left to blow the -20 wager against Colorado St. From now on, Bronco Mendenhall and his upstanding Mormon studemt atheletes can have relations with themselves continuously for the rest of the year. I don't care. The numbered musings had a workmanlike 6-4 week last week, which brings the season total to 61-48, or about 56 1/2 %. Meh. Decent, I guess. On to this week. I must admit, the lines are pretty solid. No gimmes this week. 1. @Northwestern +2 v Indiana: Back to the well with the 'Cats. At home, they've been averaging 458 yards per game, while IU has given up 448. On the flip side, Indiana, in addition to being much worse defensively on the road, is also much worse offensively, coming up with only 320 per game on offense. In this match up, we can of course expect Indiana to fare better than they have on the road offensively against the generous Cats D, but we can also expect the "Cats offense to get back on track. NW also needs this one more than IU does, and IU foolishly thinks they've got a bowl game wrapped up since they picked up their 6th win last week. Northwestern still needs a win to get bowl eligible. We've seen what happens to IU when they become enamored with themselves before a road game. 2. @Wisconsin +3 V Michigan. Michigan has lived a freakishly charmed life over this "turnaround period" in the last few weeks. In their 3 road games this year, they've been outgained by Northwestern, only to pull that game out, they had Illinois fucking hand a game to them with a myriad of bonehead penalties, muffed punts and an array of other atrocities, and they escaped within an inch of their lives after getting bludgeoned by a .500 Michigan St team. By the way, go on youtube and search Mark Dantonio Michigan, and see how much he appreciated Mike Hart mouthing off about the game. I think I saw smoke coming out of his ears. I like that guy. Speaking of Mike Hart...the Bears appear to be in the market for another"tough runner" with a lot of miles on him who can get you 3 yards a carry. Mike Hart anyone??? If that happens, I'll projectile vomit on the spot. Anyway..back to this game. So Michigan sucks it, and they've been lucky. That pretty much sums up the Badgers the past 24 months. However, I think they are primed for a nice performance after the Ohio St implosion. They pretty much shut down OSU's attack for the first 3 quarters, and Michigan has been getting gashed on the ground. Since it's a home game, they'll have have their backup RB Lance Smith, who runs hard, but can't travel to road games because he's a dirtbag who can't stay out of trouble. So if(when) PJ Hill pusses out and gets an owie on his footie of whatever, at least they'll have a bona-fide RB to complement their underrated passing game. I think they'll win. 3. @South Carolina +7 1/2 v Florida: I realize South Carolina just gave up 1400 yards rushing to Arkansas last week, but they aren't really that bad. Ok, against the run they are, but they won't be that bad against Florida. Earlier in the year, this was a pretty solid defensive squad, so I think you'll see an inspired performance from their defense. On the other hand, I haven't seen any evidence that would indicate that Florida can go on the road and stop South Carolina. Worse offenses have shredded this Gator D, especially on the road. Definite value on a good team catching more than a TD at home against a shaky D with a banged up running QB. 4. @Oklahoma St +6 v Kansas: At home, this Oklahoma St team pretty much runs up big numbers on everybody. That would include Kansas, despite their scorched earth numbers on both sides of the ball. Kansas gave up 400+ through the air at home against Nebraska last week, although that was strictly garbage time for the Jayhawks. Nonetheless, this remains the best opportunity for Kansas to stumble heading into the showdown with Missouri in a couple weeks. Last year, Okie St, with heavy assistance from WR Adarius Bowman completely riddled Kansas's secondary to the tune of 605 total yards. so they have a template. This smells like a trap for Kansas...I think the 'Pokes might spring one on 'em. Kansas is also due for some bad fortune. 5. Auburn +2 @Georgia: This pains me. It really does. But hey, if this musing loses, at least I can revel in Tommy Tuberville's misery, right? Since losing in week 3 to Mississippi St, Auburn Qb Brandon Cox has completed 65% of his passes for a 6/1 ratio. This includes road games with Arkansas, LSU and Florida, so it hasn't exactly been against chopped liver. Also, their defense has figured out a way to pretty much shut down Darren McFadden, Felix Jones, Tim Tebow and Percy Harvin. Those are 4 of the most dynamic players in college football right now, so forgive me if I say they won't be impressed with Matthew Stafford. Georgia's defense has also given up some yards on occasion. This game will go down to the wire, but I think Georgia has another loss in them. 6. Air Force -3 1/2 @ Notre Dame: There really isn't any reason to not take Air Force here. Jimmy Claussen is back under center, and he's only been good for 4 yards an attempt on the year. ND is running it at less than 2 ypc, and AF has only been giving up 18 ppg against good offenses in the Mountain West. We know they'll run it on ND, just like everyone else has, and just how you would expect a 1-8 team to behave. Again, I must pontificate: A 7-3 team laying only a FG to a 1-8 team doesn't make sense. There just isn't a good reason to not fade ND here. Maybe they break out of it and win this one. If so, hey, God love 'em. 7. @Nc St -3 1/2 v North Carolina: This is dangerous because we are talking about a rivalry game here, but I think(as I mentioned last week) that Tom O'Brien has this thing turned around. They've developed a nice passing attack, and it appears that they may have rid themselves of the evildoers that were still loitering around from the Amato regime. Carolina is getting better, but might have hit a wall. At this point, they aren't catching any breaks, and if you were to ask me if I would be interested in betting on them on the road while only catching 3 1/2.....well, not even with your money, friend. 8. UTEP -4 1/2 @ Tulane: First of all, I love Matt Forte, the RB from Tulane who will be playing on Sundays next year, and yes, he will run all over UTEP in this game. However, Tulane will find themselves just as helpless against UTEP's passing attack as UTEP will against Forte. In order to win, you have to have some semblance of a passing game, just in case your RB gets stopped occasionally, or if you get an overzealous umpire flagging you for holding. Sadly, Tulane doesn't really have one yet. This game might shape up similarly to Tulane's game last week with Tulsa. Tulsa also can't stop the run, and Forte only ran for 103 on them.That one ended up 48-25 on a 6 1/2 point spread. Even if Forte gets 300+, I think there is a good chance UTEP still lays 45 on Tulane and makes it a moot point. 9 Arkansas pk @ Tennessee: In order for the Vols to stop Mc Fadden and Jones, they will have to be at their best, completely fired up and effecient in all phases on defense. Unfortunately for them, this game is the 12:30 Jefferson Pilot game. Home teams just don't see as much of an advantage in that game, as opposed to the 3:30 CBS game or the ESPN night game. So far this year, Tennessee has been absolutely stampeded by the dynamic offenses they have played, such as Cal, Florida, South Carolina, and even Bama and that queer JP Wilson. (In crunch time, not only does he get sacked when you absolutely cannot get sacked, not only does he fumble when you absolutely cannot fumble, but he finds a way to throw the ball back to his own 3 yard line where only 3 LSU guys have a shot at recovering it. He couldn't have conjured up a way to fail more spectactularly. Kudos to you, Asshole!!!!) Now they face Arkansas having struggled all year to stop the run. South Carolina has struggled to stop the run too. That didn't work out too well for them, and I suspect it won't work out too well for UT either. Ainge better bring the Ben Gay Saturday, because he's going to need a boatload of points. 10 @ Wazzou -10 1/2 V Stanford: I think the Cardinal has pretty much thrown in the towel. They overachieved for Harbaugh there over a 3-4 week period and got some nice wins, but they are just out of gas. Washington, who cannot stop a soul, help them to 9 points last week and outgained them by 250 yards. Washington St has been very tough at home this year, and should be able to almost name the score if they show up. Stanford has little chance to stop Alex Brink. There is some risk of a backdoor if Wazzou pulls a BYu and and goes into sleep mode in the second half, but as long as ther isn't a slew of 22 yard Fgs, it shouldn't matter. others: Purdue is a bunch of losers. They hung with Penn State and covered, but pulled the run of the mill loser move by settling for FGs all day, and then coughed up the lead when Penn St decided to take it from them. Then, after the game, all the quotes from Purdue focused on the fact that they "competed" and how they were "proud of their effort". Hey ladies! It's Penn St!! We're not talking about the Persian army here. They're just ok. Shit, if all they want at Purdue is the ability to not get their doors blown off by mediocre teams on the road, then maybe the Minnesota wannabe element there has the right idea and Tiller should be launched. Anyway, these chicken hearted, pantywaste, lily liver, pussified, crybaby, creampuff rectal bandits play Michigan St this week. On principle, I'll be taking the Spartans. At least they're pissed off that they lost last week......Wake is catching 9 1/2 against a Clemson team that is way way way way way overdue for a crap effort.......Navy is laying 15 to North Texas. There is virtually no chance that we'll see Navy's punter this week. My only hesitation is that North Texas can throw it and Navy might still be drunk on Ovaltine from thir ND victory last week.....Memphis is getting 16 1/2 against Southern Miss this week. There have been times when So Miss has looked awful on both sides of the ball. It's dangerous for them to be laying this much against a team that has averaged 400+ through the air recently.....Speaking of yardage through the air, Texas has been struggling all year in stopping the pass, and Texas Tech is coming to town. I'd like more than 6 1/2 though, because Mike Leach gets stopped on 4th down a lot, leading to some skewed yardage numbers, and he don't do much of that there stoppin of the other team, which is a bad thing. I still lean to Tech though.....I've got a sneaking suspicscion that UCLA jumps up and bites Arizona St. UCLA is getting 7 1/2, and the one thing they can do is pressure the QB. Rudy Carpenter has been getting sacked a lot, so it might not be a good matchup for him, especially coming off their downer of a loss to the Ducks last week.....Well, that about does it for this week. Good luck to all, and Go Illini!!!