Week 12 Musings

Wow...week 12 already. It seems like just yesterday that I was doing the preseason musings, and here we are in the last full schedule week of the year. Kind of sad, but it means that bowl games will be here before too long. Since my entre family has contracted the flu, and a particulary violent, projectile vomiting strain at that, I haven't had a whole lot of time to cap the weekday games. Having said that, I did spend some time on that Oregon/Arizona game from last night. Generally, when you have a Thursday night home dog, the points are attractive, especially when the favorite struggles to stop the pass and the dog can pile up passing yards. I stayed off this one, though, because I didn't see Arizona being able to stop Oregon(with Dixon), and Oregon has a penchant for big plays on D, while Arizona has given up a lot of sacks and negative plays. So I stayed away.

I feel compelled to state this again, though: I really like that Thursday night ESPN crew, especially the broadcasters. Chris Fowler is a solid PBP guy who doesn't get in the way with his own opinions, and if he offers one, it's usually astute. Craig James and Doug Flutie are very likable, and Erin Andrews is there to look at. (I said look at, not listen to). Speaking of Flutie, I thought he was great last night. Generally, in an analyst, you want someone who can give you insight you didn't already have, or point out things you haven't noticed. Granted, not an easy task, but he did it last night. In the defining drive of the game late in the 4th quarter for Arizona, Tuitama tripped over his center, resulting in a fumble when he botched the handoff to the running back. Oregon recovered, and it looked like they were on the way to tying the game, a crippling mistake by Arizona. Generally, when there's a fumble, I might not mentally turn the page because it might have looked like the runner was down or whatever, so you consider the possibility of replay, but in this case, it never occurred to me that a replay might be needed until Flutie remarked that Arizona might want to look for a review since Tuitama's knee might have been down before he handed the ball off. Sure enough, it was. Then, in the delay during which the officials were trying to figure out where to spot the ball, Flutie said, "I don't know what the problem is here, the ball should be spotted on the 38 1/2 yard line." They hadn't even shown the replay yet. When the replay came on, Tuitama's knee clearly was down at the 36, so I thought to myself that the bal should be spotted there. However, just as I was thinking that, Flutie says, "Now remember(dumbass), the ball should be spotted where the ball is, not where his knee touches". DUH. Because there was so much emphasis on looking at the timing of his knee touching, I completely forgot to notice that he was stretching another yard or 2 when reaching to hand it off. Nice work by Flutie there. With as much complaining and hand wringing I do about Mike Patrick, All NFL Fox analysts other than Aikman and that abomination that makes Monday Nights an excruciating, torturesome experience complete with burning sensation, we should point out when a telecast is downright delightful. One other quick note, now that A Rod has re-signed with the Yankees and Barry Bonds has been indicted, we can all pretty much forget about listening to any National sports talk radio for the next month. Unless of course you strive to be bored out of your mind.

Last week was another waste of time, 5-5, right up there with a coin flip. It would have been better if some live home dogs could have shown up instead of completely shitting the bed and themselves. South Carolina never stopped Florida once. Not once. They fumbled the snap on the first play from scrimmage. What a bunch of fags. Oklahoma St was completely dumbfounded by the cosmic greatness that is the Kansas offense, run by the genius man/walrus Mark Mangino. Maybe some of these dogs will fare better this week. Season numbers: 66-53. 55.5%. Need a good week.


1. @Michigan St +3 v Penn State: Well, another week, another dissertation about how Anthony Morelli can't win a game for you on the road. Obviously, Penn State is good defensively, but they are not as good on the road as they are at home. Even last week against Temple, Penn St gave up almost 200 yards in the first half. MSU's offense is really coming around, with good balance running and passing. Purdue never had a chance against them last week. Defensively, they match up well with Penn St, since they aren't very dynamic in the passing game(Morelli again). MSU has stopped the run in home games, and that's Penn St's bread and butter. I just think getting a very good offense +a FG against a team that might struggle with their own offense is a very nice proposition. Also remember that a very subpar MSU team playing in John L Smith's swan song should have beaten Penn St last year in Happy Valley.

2. @Indiana +2 v Purdue: A rivalry game, in that the two teams come from the same state. It really isn't much of a rivalry because Purdue has been pretty much slapping IU around for the past 10 years, or as long as Joe Tiller has been there. Well, having said that, this is probably the best shot IU has had since Randle El left the building, and they really need this game to meet their goal of playing in a bowl game to honor the memory of meathead Terry Hoeppner. It's also a pretty good matchup for them, because IU is really a completely different team at home. Their defense is more aggressive, and the passing game almost always churns out some yards, especially against a pedestrian stop unit like Purdue's. Purdue already has 7 wins, so they are safe as far as bowl games go. There is definitely an emotional edge for Indiana here.

3. Tulsa -15 @Army: Once again, I must ask: Why is so much deference given to the service academies(especially Army) when it comes to setting lines? I used to like to take Army as a dog, since I held this incorrect assumption that discipline and hard work overcome a stunning lack of talent, but obviously, I was wrong. Army has been outgained by every opponent they have played this year, and in most cases it's by more than 200 yards. They are averaging 250 total yards on offense, and they obviously struggle to stop good offenses, which Tulsa is definitely one. There is almost no chance that they can hang with Tulsa on the scoreboard unless there is an inordinate amount of turnovers or if Tulsa just decides to suit up the clinical psychology department. 15 is a lot, but come on.

4. Ohio St -4 @Michigan: Ohio St, of course, is coming off their shit game for this year, but a beautiful one from any Illini homer's vantage point. As a result of that, much discussion has taken place about whether or not OSU's defense is that good in the first place. I tend to think it is, they just ran into an offense that they didn't match up well with. This week, they match up really well with an offense that is banged up at QB and RB. I think it's asking a lot of Michigan to expect to put up points on this OSU defense with a half speed MIke Hart and a hurting Chad Henne, though I do feel that if Henne can get the ball downfield, OSU's secondary is vulnerable. I also think that Todd Boeckman and OSU's OL are a lot better than they showed last week, and Tressel definitely has a Grand Canyon of a coaching advantage here. Expect some steely resolve from the Buckeyes this week. As for the rarity of Michigan as a home dog, the last time OSU came into Ann Arbor they were favored, and they covered, so no fear there.

5. New Mexico +15 @Utah: Utah coach Kyle Whittingham is a total dick. Last week, Wyoming coach Joe Glenn, when speaking to a group of students at an on campus event, jokingly guaranteed that the Cowboys would beat Utah in Salt Lake City last week. Not a good idea, since Utah won 50-0. But Whittingham called for a fake punt when Utah was up 43-0. When asked about it, he made a smarmy remark about coaches guaranteeing victories, and people being held accountable for their actions, etc. Hey asshole, he was talking to a group of students on his campus. Get over yourself. This punk has been a coach for 2 years, Joe Glenn has been one for 20, and he thinks it's up to him to teach a lesson. What a complete jackass. Total dick move...I have a new least favorite coach, and it's good timing too, since it looks like Tuberville might be bolting from Auburn(A&M when coach Fran gets launched) and Carr might be retiring. Anyway, I have a rule to always take more than 2 TDs when a good team is getting the points. New Mexico hasn't been good lately, but they are still 7-3, same as Utah. Also, QB Brian Johnson has been on a tear lately, but he has not been pressured at all, New Mexico, with their oddball 3-3-5 scheme probably will be able to put pressure on them. It's unlikely to expect Utah to dominate yet again, especially since so much attention has been given to the fiasco from last week. If this game was being played a month ago, the spread would probably be around 5 or 6. Lots of value with a Lobo team that can move the ball.

6. @Washington St -3 V Oregon St: This game opened at WAZZOU -1, but unfortunately, that wacko tout Dr Bob is on Washington St, so the line moved all the way to three. It probably won't matter anyway, but it's still frustrating. Oregon St has a nice team, especially defensively, but this is a bad matchup for them. What Washington St does well(throw the ball at home) is precisely what Oregon St does poorly(stop the pass on the road). Washington St might as well not even try running the ball, because they won't be able to, since the Beavs stop everyone on the ground. Like I said, it probably won't matter, though I would never count out a possible brain cramp by resident village idiot Bill Doba. On offense, Oregon St is now starting someone named Lyle Moevao, and in addition to not being able to pronounce his name, I can't for the life of me tell why the Beaver coaching staff thinks he is a D-1 QB. Sean Canfield, a walking turnover himself, is now hurt, and that's too bad, because he was coming around. This Moevao guy, different story. 1 TD, 4 picks, and against Washington, who previously had been absolutely torched, he went 12/24 for 100 yards...you guessed it, a "west coast" type of attack. Since OSU is likely to give up some points here, this guy is going to have to show up. I'm guessing he'll show up, but hs teammates will wish he hadn't.

7. Iowa St +26 1/2 @Kansas: Hey, I know that Kansas is the end all be all, perhaps the most efficient, unselfish bunch of brianiacs ever assembled on a college campus, but there's no way Iowa St should be getting this many points. First off, Kansas is in a supreme look ahead situation with Mizzou on deck. They are unlikely to bring out all the stops here as they probably will be saving things for the biggest game in school history next week. Also, if you look at Iowa St, what have they done to be considered such a shit outfit? They just beat two decent squads back to back in Kansas St and Colorado, they outgained Missouri on the road, hung with Oklahoma in a game that was contested until the final minutes, and outgained 6 or their 12 opponents this year. I guess everyone is still looking at that 56-3 thrashing they took from Texas in a game that every possible thing went against them. Maybe Kansas comes out and smokes them, but if they do, my hat is definitely off to them, because this is about as inconvenient a spot you can come across.

8. Pittsburgh +12 1/2 @Rutgers: Of course, all disclaimers apply with the whole Wanny doesn't know what he's doing thing, his mustache looks terrible, etc, but this isn't a bad matchup for Pitt. They have been able to stop the run consistently this year, so Ray Rice probably won't run all over them, and Mike Teel might not play, leaving some scattershot wildman named Jabu Lovelace as the starter. Even if Teel plays, he has really cooled off and has been accident prone lately. Pitt has a nice running game, and their QB has been ok. This season for Rutgers has been one of those in which things just seem to go wrong for them. Generally, with the talent they have, they should be able to hammer Pitt, but this year, they just haven't put it together.

9. @South Florida -8 V Louisville: Not a good matchup for Louisville coming off a tough luck loss in Morgantown. This team has been so schitzophrenic that I highly doubt that they can patch together two solid performances back to back. This type of attack has been giving Louisville fits, and the fast South Florida defense is one that can force Brohm into some mistakes. The last time Louisville went to Tampa, they were throttled, and they had a huge talent advantage in that one. This time they don't. I think they'll struggle big time this week.

10. LSU -18 @Ole Miss: Ole Miss is a joke. They've got a couple decent players, but if LSU shows up at all, this should be a laugher from the word go. Ole Miss was run all over the field by Northwestern St last week, and they can't stop a soul on defense, regardless if they're at home or on the road. LSU is due to administer an in conference ass kicking, as their offense has picked it up over the past several weeks. It's a 50/50 proposition on whether or not the Rebs get shut out. Some talking heads are making noise this week that LSU needs to have it's head on a swivel this week, but I'm not buying it. This one looks like 44-7 to me.

11. @Kansas St +7 v Missouri: You're looking at the #1 publicly favored game of the week. I of course, being the contrarian, am on the other side. K St has spent the last two weeks embarrasing themselves, first losing to Iowa St(despite running into some tough luck) then getting absolutely steamrolled by Nebraska. I happen to think that the Nebraska game is forgivable, because there was a lot of negative energy that the Cornhuskers were getting off their chest, and Joe Ganz looks to be the real deal. Having said that, this team is proud team, and they will be chomping at the bit to get after the new golden boys of the public. Don't forget that earlier this season, K St put together some nice efforts, including a thorough beating of Texas in Austin. Missouri is entirely capable of a weak offensive performance here, as K St has a tendency to pin their ears back at home, and I think the Missou D, who has been successfully hidden somehow this year, might have a problem with the Jordy Nelson/Josh Freeman combo. As with Kansas, this is a supreme lookahead spot. Not sure if Pinkel can pull off a solid performance here.

12. @Texas Tech +8 1/2 v Oklahoma: The Sooners have not been all that impressive on the road. They got beat up at Colorado in their only loss, had a taffy pull with Iowa St a few weks ago, and gave up a load of passing yards to Tulsa early in the year. Now enter Texas Tech. OU is giving up 8.2 ypa in the passing game on the road, and this will be by far the best passing attack they have faced, not that it's a foreign concept since the Red Raiders are in their division and they play them every year. Texas Tech has done ok defensively at home, so it might not be as high scoring a game as we are all used to in TT games. I'd rather have a few more points, since Tech gives up garbage TDs a lot, but this shapes up as a dangerous spot for OU.


Others......Wake is favored at home(-6) against an improving NC State team. Jim Grobe also won't have the distinct coaching advantage against O'Brien that he normally enjoys week to week...Ga Tech has had all kinds of trouble covering as a favorite this year, and they're laying DD to a deent Tar Heel squad(10)...I think BC has a bounce back game catching 8 1/2 against an "increasingly due for a shit effort" Clemson team. Matt Flynn is due for a big game, especially since people are starting to say that Clemson's QB Cullen Harper might be the best QB in the conference....I know we all like Navy, but they have the worst defense in the country. Consider that they have given up 62(!!!) points to North Texas, 59 to Delaware, 44 to Notre Dame(!!!!!!!), 45 to Pitt, 44 to Wake and 43 to Duke this year. Any team with a defense that bad should never be a 16 point favorite aganst any team with a pulse. NIU barely qualifies as having a pulse. They'll probably never stop Navy all day, but I still have to take a chance that they can come within 16, since Navy would probably have to put up 59 to cover it. Considering NIU gave up 800+ yards to Toledo a couple weeks ago, I guess it could go either way, then huh???....I also have a hunch that Kentucky(+8 1/2) gives Georgia a tough game, but I wonder when the last time was that UK was getting under 10 in Athens? Georgia is playing their third consecutive home game. It's tough to get up in that scenario, and it's an early game, I believe.....I also have a hunch that Wshington rises up and puts together a nice performance at home against Cal. Longshore is close to getting benched, as this is looking more and more like a lost season for the Bears. Jale Locker is out, but backup QB Bonnell has played a lot, and they probably won't miss much with him back there....That's it for the week. Hope everyone does well