----- Forwarded Message ----From: Peter Lavette
Well shit. The Thursday night game didn't go well.I'm glad I hustled to get that winner out there. I hate starting off on a losing foot. The last few weeks have been good for weekday games, but not tonight. I guess I should have known that the anemic Va Tech offense would confidently pile up almost 500 yards in this one. That couldn't have been Sean Glennon playing QB for Va Tech. Had to be Tom Brady. Well, he got sacked 7 times, so it must have been Sean Glennon. I think the Goergia Tech game plan was this: "Lets put pressure on the QB, but our coverage strategy will be to sprint as far away from the receiver as possible at the snap, watch him catch it, then miss a tackle and escort him out of bounds. While we're at it, let's immediately abandon our bread and butter run game and have our scatterbrained QB chuck it into triple coverage 5 times. Hey, let's get fooled on a couple "oldest trick in the book moves" like an on-sides kick or a naked bootleg too!!"
I loved hearing the following from Chris Fowler on the play by play: "The Hokies are really moving the ball. That's something they aren't used to." and "Glennon, for the first time all year looks to be in control". "Glennon is uncharateristically accurate and confident tonight." All this on the road against the #7 defense in the country. Whatever.
Last week, the numbered musings went 7-3, but we got boned on Tulane when their kicker shanked a 22 yard FG with less than 2 minutes left, up 6, then watched Memphis blitzkrieg down the field and punch in a TD with 15 seconds left to win by a point. That sucked big time. I don't know what's worse, the fact that the game ended like that, or that I was upstairs on the internet watching the play by play of a Tulane/Memphis game. De-gen-er-ate.
Also, while we're at it, let's send out a big, bony, extended middle fingert out to Comcast. This week, there is a bunch of negative press for them because the Wisconsin/Ohio St game will be on the Big Ten Network, and they still haven't reached an agreement, because they claim they don't want to force their customers to pay more. Now this week, they raised their prices, forcing their customers to pay more, with no appreciable increase in service or programming. Nice. Yet they still have the ability to spend their entire advertising budget on a smear campaign against BTN. I think I've heard these radio commercials more than 100 times. Hey assholes!! Why not take all that cash you spent on jading the public and use it to come to an agreement to give your customers a chance to get the programming they want? The commercials are laughable too. They pretty much say that the best Big ten games are already on cable(ESPN, etc) and then go on to brag that Comcast will be carrying more than 100 football games this year, including the NFL regular season, and ENTIRE PLAYOFF SCHEDULE. Hey, jagoff....if I have a 1973 Sylvania black and white tv and a creatively manipulated coat hanger, I can get the entire NFL playoff schedule, so shut the hell up. If i'm a Comcast subscriber and want to watch the Wisconsin/Ohio St game in my house, I can't do that because you refuse to give me the option. You say that they will charge a mandatory fee to all cable subscibers, and not everyone wants the Big ten Network. Well, ESPN charges one, and not everyone watches ESPN. Home Shopping Network charges one, and I can damn well guarantee you that not everyone watches that. So what's the difference? Luckily for me, I'm not a Comcast subscriber.
On to the games...
2. Rutgers +2 @Connecticut: UConn has done a nice job this year, thanks mostly to their defense and some nice fortune, especially that joke of a punt return TD against Lawvul a couple Fridays ago. They're 7-1. I can't imagine they continue this run, especially since they have just won two emotional games in a row. Rutgers is frankly a better team than they are. Uconn is the kind of team that will kepp knocking people off when they are dogged, but crash and burn the first time they are favored. That's the case this week. If Mike Teel gets his head out of his ass, they can put up some big plays on the Huskies, and Ray Rice is Ray Rice.
3. @Indiana -6 1/2 v Ball St: Indiana pretty much has to have this game to get bowl eligible. They have more chances later, but there are no gimmies left on their schedule after this. Ball St, as we know if good offensively, but on the road, they are completely helpless defensively. The Illini didn't completely run over them last week, but that is simply not a good offense right now. Indiana has a good offense, and against a team that gives up 5+ ypc and over 8.5 per pass attempt on the road, Kellen Lewis should have himself a nice afternoon. Defensively, Indiana is much better at home, and they will be able to pressure Nate Davis, who looked really beat up last week. It's asking a lot of Testicle Tech to play a 3rd straight road game and compete two weeks in a row against Big Ten competition. Also, Indiana has taken care of business against MAC opponents under this coaching staff.
4. NC State +11 1/2 @Miami(FL): First off, Kyle Wright is banged up, so we might see Kirby Freeman at QB for the Canes. That's bad for Miami. Second, this is a noon(EST) tilt, so the atmosphere in the Orange Bowl will be comparable to an activity room at your local old folks home. NC St is finally resembling a decent outfit. I guess it took O'Brien more time than expected to get that handled, but it looks like he's on his way now. They're on a two week winning streak, and both the offense and defense have settled in. QB Daniel Evans threw for 300+ on Virginia last week, and they've had a couple young guys emerge on both sides of the ball. Miami really shouldn't be favored by DD against any conference foes, except maybe Duke..or if Notre Dame was in the ACC.
5. @Kansas -18(late note...now 20) v Nebraska: I really try to avoid big favorites at this time of year like the plague, but this is looking like a supreme ass kicking waiting to happen. Consider this: You are Nebraska. You have somehow played so poorly on defense that you are DEAD LAST in rushing defense in the country and 101st in toal defense overall. You've been outgained 8 games in a row, including home games with Ball St and Iowa St. You got embarrassed on your home field twice in a row to the point where your coach almost certainly will be fired because you have given such an anemic performance. Fueled by unrelenting criticism and the desire to save your coach's job, you pick youself off the mat and give an inspired performance on the road as a 21 point dog only to blow a 17-3 second half lead and get your heart broken because, again, you allow someone to shove the ball down your throat when the chips are down. So now you slunk off, beaten and deflated to play another road game..this time against the #8 team in the country who runs the ball extremely well. By the way, this team has been spending the better part of the last half century getting humiliated by you, and would like nothing better than to whip your sorry ass up and down the field and make you like it. If they beat you 107-0, they'll be about 1/20th the way back to making up for your previous transgressions. One more thing: Your QB got hurt in that game last week, so you'll be starting a brand new QB who has never taken a snap against the #3 D in the country. You'll also be running a conservative version of the West Coast offense. It does't look good for you this week, does it?
6. Navy + 3 1/2 @ Notre Dame: Here's a question: If Navy was playing on the road against any other 1-7 team with the worst offense the nation has seen in 3 years, what would the spread be? Say, if they were playing Mississippi St from 3 years ago? Would it be Navy -10? Probably. Notre Dame in their home games, has been outgained 413 to 178, and they've given up 5.4 yards per carry. Starting with the USC game last year, they been outgained by the opponents by 286, 258, 151, 300,151, 142, 237 and 197 yards. That's downright Florida International-ish. Navy, as we know, runs it on everyone. They will run it on Notre Dame. Navy struggles to stop good offenses, but this isn't a....I don't even need to say it do I? Hell, if Navy can't get this thing done this year, they will never do it. They have also seemed to play a lot better at Notre Dame in this series than on the various neutral sites they've played at. If ND covers this one, hats off to them, but it will mean that some things will have happened that have not happened this year. Paul Johnson is a damn good coach, so I'm thinking the bye week won't create an advantage for Charlie Manatee.
7. South Carolina +5 1/2 @Arkansas: One of two unlikely things is going to happen in this game. Either South Carolina and the OBC are going to lose 3 in a row, or Arkansas is going to lose their 3rd SEC home game of the year. These teams are evenly matched in my opinion, but I think there is a vast advantage between the coaching staffs. There also might exist a template on how to stop the Arkansas running game authored by Auburn a couple weeks back. South Carolina struggles to stop the run, but it really hasn't hurt them all that much so far this year, and they will not struggle to score on the Hogs. 5 1/2 points is too much for a South Carolina team that really needs a win.
8. @Ohio St -15 1/2 v Wisconsin: Another large favorite that I am not crazy about, but this is another game that I can easily see getting to 38-7. Wisconsin's defense has improved lately, but it was against teams that pretty much just laid down for them. Every time Indiana got anything going last week, they succumbed to the mystique of Camp Randall or whatever voodoo Wisconsin has placed on opponents to make them hand the Badgers games over the past couple years. They just coughed up ball after ball, thrusting it into ther waiting breadbaskets of Badger defenders. There will be no such mystique this week. Ohio St, in my opinion has a legitimately great offense, probably better than last year, nd Wisconsin is going to have all kinds of trouble on offense, since PJ Hill almost certainly will puss out. He's already hobbled...just wait until he gets a couple hard hits laid on him. No Lance Smith on the road, so they'll be stuck with the third stringer, and the Buckeyes will pin their ears back. Wisconsin has struggled to stop people on the road, and they will certainly struggle to move the ball on that defense(rated #1 in the nation by the way.)
9. @Alabama +7 1/2 V LSU: I can't resisit. With as many tough ballgames that LSU has been in lately, this one just looks like another one on the schedule for them. had it been earlier in the season, I think they would get jacked for it, but at this point, how many emotionally draining games can you get up for? Saban will have the monumental coaching advantage in this one, and Bama is on the upswing, JP Wilson doing a good job over the past couple weeks. We've also seen that despite their emotion, and their talent, LSU is playing to it's competition. If it's a close game, I think Miles' luck is going to run out. Also, Ryan Perrilloux is suspended so that's a facet of the game that Bama doesn't have to prepare for. The home crowd will be whipped up into a frenzy, and I think Bama is good enough to win this one outright. I'll definitely take more than a TD.
10. @Northwestern -1 1/2 v Iowa: Iowa's M.O. this year has been perceived as a good D, weak O situation. The weak O has definitely been true, especially in the passing game. I still think Jake Christensen is better than he has shown, but he's had so many injuries and suspensions in the passing game that he hasn't had much of a chance. On the road, they are averaging only 227 yards and 9 points a game. When they can run the ball, they are competent on offense, but they are only doing so at 2.6 yards a pop on the road. There might be some concern that NU might get overpowered by Iowa, but the 'Cats went into iowa City last year and completely stuffed a better Iowa team than this one(21-7) with a 180 yard advantage. For the record, Iowa's D has been a myth on the road too, as Iowa st, penn St and Purdue all outgained them severely, rolling up 400+ yards in the process. We all know that Northwestern moves the ball on everyone, especially at home. They become bowl eligible with a win. I think it's unlikely that Iowa will hold them to the 17 or so they'll need to in order to win.
Others: I think Mizzou is due for a clunker, and Colorado(+4) is definitely due for a strong game at home after their last home perfrmance against Kansas. Missouri generally runs out of gas this time of year, especially on the road. Kudos to them if they win, because it will probably set up an unlikely showdown with Kansas the last week of the season.....I like Oitt to cover 13 against Syracuse at home. Syracuse should be getting at least 17 against any decent team on the road. Pitt should be able to run it down their throats, adn at the same time stuff Syracuse's anemic offense..... I'll be on all 3 dogs in the Friday night games(@NM St +7 v Nevada, Temple +9 @ Ohio U, Akron +7 @BG) None of these MAC teams are good enough to be favored that much against anyone. As a matter of fact, the dog has covered in almost every MAC game this year. It's pretty uncanny. NM St/Nevada should be a shootout, assuming Chase Holbrook plays for the Aggies. That one os for fun more than anything else.....I think Okie St will beat Texas. This Texas team just isn't that great on either side of the ball, and Okie St has shown that they can score, especially against a lazy defense like Texas.they've also shown some spunk on defense. If Texas doesn't play very well, they will get beat.....I'd be all over Oregon St +15 at USC if their tough running back Yvenson bernard were healthy, but he's doubtful. USC will struggle to score on them unless they bring Carson Palmer and Mike Williams back from the NFL. I'm merely on them this week instead of all over them because of Bernard's injury.
take care! That's it for the week. Hopefully, we'll turn the corner this week.
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