More College Football Bowl Musings

I should probably start out by listing some other bowls that are coming up that I didn't list in the previous batch. I like this, but I'd consider them "also rans"..not official numbered musings. Tomorrow, Cincinnati is laying 10-1/2 to Southern Miss. Cincy is in a completely different class than So Miss. The throw it, they can run it, and defensively, they stop the run extremely well. VFery opportunistic on D as well, and with longtime coach Jeff Bower having been kicked to the curb, whatever assistant they use as the interim guy will get his head handed to him by Brian Kelly. SO miss can't throw it well, and Cincy won't let them use their bread and butter, which is the running game. USM's other strong suit in the past has been their defense, but even that unit has struggled at times this year....I also lean to Nevada in their game with New Mexico, even though the Lobos are at home here. Rocky Long is a solid coach, but for whatever reason, he can't win a bowl game. It's in his head I think. San Jose St came in there last year and beat him, and now he's lost his All-MWC running back to academics. Stupid academics! UNM has some talent in the passing game, but they are going to have to ratchet it up a piece if they want to hang with Nevada, because Nevada's offense is explosive, and balanced. I like the FG here. By the way, I am looking hard for some good dogs to back, especially after Christmas, since that's generally the time that dogs do well in bowl season, but I am having a hard time. 5. South Florida -6 v Oregon: At this point, we're assuming that Oregon will be starting wither a hobbling Brady Leaf or one fo those chowderheads that played over the past 2 games for the Ducks. Regardless, Oregon will have to run it to have a chance in this one, and that is very unlikely to happen on this D. On the other side of the ball, Oregon was effective enough at times on D to not embarrass themselves, but for the most part, they surrendered yards. USF has quietly piled up more than 35 points per game this year, and they'll have a comfortable matchup with the Duck D. I don't think that will happen with teh Ducks D vs USF. 6. Fresno St +6 v Georgia Tech: Ga Tech has the chance to run all over Fresno here, since they are a good running teeam and Fresno has had all kinds of trouble stopping the run, but I think this might be a case of one team just showing up and the other being solidly motivated. We've seen this drill from Fresno before, with the whole "we'll play anybody, you can't push us around angle". They have some atheletes on offense, and are facing a team without their coach being run by a D-coordinator who is out the door. Goergia Tech has had a tendency to not show up for games in which they would appear to have all kinds of reasons for motivation, and this is definitely not one of those cases. 7. Missouri -3 v Arkansas: At first glance, this one looked like a good opportunity to fade Missouri, since they will undoubtedly be bummed to be playing in this game instead of a BCS game. However, when you bring McFadden into the picture, I think Missou will know they have a game on their hands. There will be a full blown "meathead alert" set forth for this game, because interim guy Reggie Herring at Arkansas looks like a side of beef and talks like Foghorn Leghorn on speed. We are not talking about any kind of pragmatic thinking going on with this guy. On defense, Arkansas has given up points by the bushelfull especially in the passing game. Wes Carroll of Miss St threw for 400+ on them, his first ever 300 yard game, let along 400 yard game. If Wes Carrol can carve you up, what will Chase Daniel do to you? Bad things I'm afraid. Don't forget that in their last game, the Hogs were 13 point underdogs to LSU. I realize that game was on the road, and LSU has a much better D than Missouri, but I don't think those two teams are 10 points apart. 7. Texas Tech -6 v Virginia: Oftentimes, we might say about a team, "Their defense has been good, but they haven't faced a team like this before." Never has that been more true than in the case of Virginia. They have a rep of being a stout defense with an offfense that does just enough to win. Well, take a look at their competition this year, and tell me how many legitimately good offenses they've played. Wyoming? No.(106th in total offense) Duke? No.(117th) UNC? No.(105th) Georgia Tech? No. (66tth...astoundingly the best offense on their schedule)Pitt? No.(107th) MTSU? C'mon. And they had to get a TD with 10 seconds left to win that one.(95th) UConn? Not terrrible, but not good.(83rd), Maryland..nope (88th), NC St? no. (97th), Wake? No. (98th), Miami(FL)? Monumentally bad (110th) and finally, Va tech, who carved them up on their home field in the biggest game in the past 20 years for the program? No. (99th). They themselves are ranked 100th in total offense. The long and short of it is that they've made it here based almost entirely on the fact that they've been able to squeak out wins against brutal offenses. I'd venture to guess that their defense isn't actually all that good at all, Combine that with a weak suck offense, and you've got a team that's ripe for the picking if they get matched up with a solid passing attack. Enter that wildman Mike Leach and his band of pass happy ne'er do wells. This is one of those "First half/Game" bets that Hyun giggles about so often. 8. Oklahoma -7 1/2 v West Virginia: In Oklahoma's eyes, there remains an outside chance that some rebel AP voters migt vote them #1 if LSU and Ohio St have a taffy pull while OU blows the doors off West Virginia. So there's their motivation. WV has some too, but there are a lot of problems with this team. First, Rich Rodriguez's departure is a huge blow to them. Tey rely on him for everything. He calls the plays, handles all the motivation, is a father figure to Pat White. It's a bad scene there now. Plus, we've seen what happens when WV loses confidence or momentum. Very small margin of error there. One bright spot for Wv has been their D, which was ranked 3rd in the country as late as early November. Unfortunately, once they started playing some teams with offenses, they began to get exposed. Now they have one of the best in Oklahoma, and OU's D is more than capable of doing what Pitt did. Pat White's finger and shoulder are both fragile. God help him if he gets hurt. I would probably make Missouri a solid favorite over WV, and they proved that they can't handle Oklahoma. 9. Kansas +3 v Virginia Tech: Not many people are giving KU a chance because they don't think the Jayhawks belong in the Orange Bowl. They're right about that, for sure, but it doesn't mean KU can't win this game. The long and short of it is that KU is very balanced on offense, and they have proven themselves able to stop some pretty good offenses themselves. Va Tech, as we all know is very good on defense, but KU isn't the type to cough up the ball very much. VT is going to get KU's best shot, and I can't help but think that VT might be overconfident in this one, not helpful if you have the 99th ranked offense. Mark Mangino might be a dead ringer for the guy from "Jake and the Fatman", but he knows what he's doing. 10. Tulsa -4 v Bowling Green: Tulsa has boned me a couple times this year, but man can they score. BG has a weak D by MAC standards. This will be a shootout, but Tulsa is going to light up the scoreboard here. They have the #1 offense in college fooball...more yards per game than anyone. BG can score as well, but I don;t think they'll hang with Tulsa. Others: I Like Hawaii, because I think Georgia is overrated. But I was hoping more people would be counting them out. Consensus is actually on Hawaii and the spread is dropping(7 1/2), so I'm worried. Hawaii ia going to score on them though. You can be sure of that.....I also think Clemson will handle Auburn. There is a large discrepancy between these offenses. As long as Clemson hangs on to the ball, I think they will run away and hide in this one, though Auburn is darn pesky.....Air Force should beat cal, because everyone is beating Cal right now. There is no motivation there, and Cal will have all kinds of trouble figuring out the option. When you get lazy, the first thing that goes is the brain.