Pre-season Musings 2008.

Very sorry for the late update to the blog. I wasn't sure if I wanted to keep it going, but figured since I'm doing the musings, they might as well be on here. I will be cutting and pasting the first four weeks, as well as the preseason musings.


Well, another year approaches. I must say that this year has been one of the least painful waits for CFB because this Cubs team has been so interesting, and such a pleasure to watch. In previous years, I'd be so sick of the Dust Bag and his absolute ass-backward ideas on the most basic tenets of baseball, that I'd be scrambling for other outlets to pay attention to. This would lead to a vastly premature dive into all things college football. I'd generally have just about everything broken down by July 1st, then sit there and pound my pud for 45 days until it was prudent to start talking about the upcoming season, This year, the Cubs have kept me occupied.

Well, enough of that bullshit, college football is almost here. Time to pay attention to what matters. Football season, of course marks the opening of the true betting season, and I am looking forward to that, partly because I have found what an absolute gold mine fading myself can be(in all cases other than CFB sides). I look forward to fully taking advantage of my own squareness, especially when college hoops season gets started.

So here are the pre-season musings. As I've mentioned in the past, don't be surprised if teams I mention here end up being teams I play on in the coming weeks. I typically mention the teams I either like, or don't like, relative to the expectations that we might see or read in preseason chatter among the talking heads. Here are some observations:


-Georgia is ranked #1 in the country, but they'll probably fail to finish 1st in their own division in the SEC. Seriously, does Mark Richt have dirty pictures of the entire collective CFB media? The media has been on this team's jock consistently since about November 1st of last year. Nothing was more annoying than the mindless "Georgia is the hottest team and deserves to be in the MNC game" chatter we were beaten over the skull with as the BCS screeching got appreciably louder. Yes, they have some people back. Their defense looks very good. However, I am not sold on Matt Stafford, they just lost their All SEC LT to a season ending knee injury, and they have a schedule that I wouldn't wish on Lloyd Carr. Keep in mind that Florida has just about all of their playmakers back and are certainly looking for revenge after Urban Meyer got all offended when Georgia went ghetto on the Gators after that TD in Jacksonville. As long as Percy Harvin is healthy, their offense will be a scoring machine. Florida plays SEC road games at Arkansas, Vandy and Tennessee, while Georgia has South Carolina, Auburn, LSU and Kentucky as well as the Florida game at a neutral site. Tell me you wouldn't bet on Florida having a tad easier time in conference.

-Unfortunately, with the untimely firing of Bill Doba at Washington St, we have to find a new village idiot in the college football coaching ranks. Of course, there exists a myriad of candidates, as I would estimate that more than 50% of these meatheads would be unable to function in the Non-football real world. Mike Stoops at Arizona, Phil Fullmer at UT and of course Les Miles at LSU are fun choices. Tim Brewster at Minnesota established himself as a contender with his rah-rah "we will do things the right way" and "our young men will compete" drivel. But the runaway winner has to be Bill Stewart, the new HC at West Virginia. It's true that WV stomped Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl in his only game as HC, but let's take a look here. Dick Rod's OC was still there calling the plays, so he didn't have to do much in that regard. He never donned the headset at any time during the game, and spent the entire game searching diligently for people to hug. His previous head coaching experience is limited to a 8-25 record in Division II. Nevertheless, WV gave him the job. With no leftover assistants from the Dick Rod era, it should be interesting. If I'm a 'Eers fan(and thank God I'm not, because that would make me a couch burning hillbilly), I am absolutely a regular at "Fire Bill Stewart.com." South Florida is going to win that league.

Ok here are some teams I like. Obviously, you don't need me to tell you that teams like Oklahoma, Missouri, Florida, Ohio St, etc are going to be good. So I won't. They're going to be good though. Maybe Missouri I do. They'll be good....see last year for evidence on that. Moving on:

1. South Florida: Surprise! Matt Grothe is a "steely resolve" type ,the RB and most of their WRs return, as do 4/5 of their offensive linemen and most of their defensive playmakers. They still have a bitter taste in their mouths after getting teabagged by a perceived chump team(Dennis Dixon-less Oregon) in their bowl game, so there's a major shoulder chip, and their coach, though showing occasional signs of meatheadedness, is never overmatched. They are also getting used to the hype that they were new to last year. Jan 1 looks to be in their future.

2. Texas Tech: What's not to like? 2 Heisman candidates in Graham Harrell and Michael Crabtree, tons of receivers back, all 5 linemen back , and easily the best D that Leach has had there. If Mike Leach can figure out a way to first wake himself up, then devise some kind of plan to help them compete in Norman on November 22, they've got a great chance at an 11 win year, and maybe more.

3. Cincinnati: Another Big East team, and one nobody is talking about, but I like this team. There are some question marks at Qb, because Ben Mauk, their guy from last year was denied a 12th year of eligibility by the NCAA. However, the guy that played before Mauk transferred there, Dustin Grutza is no slouch, having started 24 times since his Freshman year. Their defense also looks to be very strong, as they return 43 combined sacks and INTs from a good D last year. I'm also very fond of their coach, Brian Kelly..Cincy is a dark horse in the Big East.

4. Indiana: Don't laugh. Ok laugh. They actually made a mistake in hiring Bill Lynch on full time, but for the short term, it might work out. This could be one of those predictions that I look back on and cringe, but hear me out. They backed into a bowl game last year, but were fairly legit, and they've got a good shot to do the same thing again, with an outside shot of reaching one of the upper tier B10 bowls due to their schedule. They miss Ohio St and Michigan(no great travesty this year)in the B10 schedule, and their NC schedule is predictably cupcake city. I actually think they made an attempt to be even more cowardly than their schedule makes them appear, since I'm sure if they could trade in Ball St and Central Michigan for a couple other MAC teams, they'd do it immediately. Their last 2 games are on the road with Purdue and Penn St, but prior to that, 8 of their first 10 are at home, and one of the road games is against Minnesota, a winnable game if there ever was one. Their home games are with Western Ky, the Racers of Murray St, aforementioned MACsters CMU and Testicle Tech, Michigan St, Iowa and Northwestern.MSU, NW and Iowa will be fighting for the same lot in life that the Hoosiers will....home field will be big in those games. They then get the Badgers at home, followed by the final two. They have a great shot to be 9-1 (the other road game is at Illinois) when they tee it up with Wisconsin, and anything less than 8-2 would have to include at least one loss as a significant favorite. As far as the team goes, Kellen Lewis should be back from his indiscretions in the offseason, and he is one of the most underrated QBs in the country. He ran for 1,000 yards and threw for 3k more with a 28-10 ratio. On defense, this will be their best squad in many years, with a lot of their playmakers returning. Most of the publications I've seen has IU coming in last in the Big Ten. I just don't think that can possibly happen. Not to belabor this point, but this looks like a pretty interesting situation. They will almost certainly be ranked into October.

5. The MAC West: There are some very good teams in this division, two of whom I mentioned already, CMU and Nad St. Cmu has one of the best players not playing in a BCS league, Benet Academy's Dan LeFevour. They also have every conceivable player back who did anything on their team last year, and they should have beaten Purdue in the bowl game. They always play a tough schedule, and they got pounded at times last year in the NC, but they will probably be more of a tough out this year when they play Georgia, Purdue and Indiana. Ball St has another good QB in Nate Davis, and a bunch of good skill guys in the passing game. Western Michigan also looks good. This might be a year that some Big Ten teams slip up against the MAC like in years past.

6. FAU: Teams looking for feeble homecoming opponents used to come calling to Florida Atlantic with check in hand, and FAU has been a willing speedbag while they've tried to build up their program, but the Owls have now graduated to a second level of sorts. The Sun Belt has been a goofy league, where upsets routinely happen because every team in the league was bad enough to get beat as a DD favorite.That is unlikely to happen this year because FAU is so far ahead of everyone else in the league now that Haugabook from Troy and his jackrabbit but rockheaded buddies have all "graduated". This was a prolific offense last year. QB Rusty Smith (great name) is another underrated QB (32/9 ratio) who led the team to 7 30+ performances, and they have everyone back. This is probably the easiest conference race to handicap in the country, even easier than the PAC 10. Not that anyone cares about the Sun Belt, but there you go.

Teams I don't like:

1. Mich Shit gan: So now they have Dick Rod. Ok, great. Explain to me, Mr Dick Rod, who is going to score your touchdowns this year? Mike Hart? Gone. Manningham? Gone. Arrington? Gone. Henne? Sucked anyway, but gone. Also, you have no quarterbacks who don't look like Lerch from the Addams Family, and your non-freshman running backs are either ineligible, on crack, or fat. Not a good fit for the run n choke(see Pitt last year) offense you run. Throw in the fact that there is only 1 returning starter on the line, and you've got some issues my friend. Actually, the guys projected to start on the OL haven't even seen much action, not even in mop up duty. Defensively, they have some guys back, but it's not like they set the world ablaze on that side of the ball last year. Frankly, they remind of Notre Dame coming into last year. They can't possibly be that bad, though. Here's hoping they are! Cheers!

2. Notre Dame: Holy shit, where do I start with this pack of non-talents.The common refrain among the talking heads is that Notre Dame will bounce back this year. I guess that's because they are Notre Dame, and they have Coach Front-Butt and his brilliant, savvy, I'm smarter than you are schemes. Do we have to remind people how bad this team was last year? In week 7, they were dead last in the NCAA in total offense by almost 100 yards per game. 4 times(4 TIMES!!!) they were held under 20 yards in a first half and failed to gain 200 yards in a game 7 times. 3 times they were held under 100 yards for an entire game. Keep in mind that when they teed it up last year, Charlie had 2 1/2 recruiting classes under his considerable belt. Did he recruit a bunch of twerps? I think not. So what does that say? He either recruited players with talent enough to be easily the worst offense in D-1, or his schemes were sorely lacking. Taking a look at his roster, it's pretty much the same guys who sucked ass last year, so where is the improvement coming from? Mr Wonderful is going to have to prove it to us. By the way, is there a more disturbing looking college football player than Jimmy Claussen. With his long hair, he looks like a newly transgendered male. He is not difficult to dislike. It's too bad, because now that I cover South Bend, and have some dealer acquaintances with close ties to the program I wouldn't mind not despising this team. Oh well.

3. Miami(FL): The free fall enabled by Skeletor Coker has been only enhanced by the overmatched Randy Shannon. When is this administration going to figure out that they can only be relevant if they get a bunch of coked up street thugs? For the third year in a row, their offense stunk, and now they have to break in another QB, probably a freshman. Defensively, they should be pretty good, but they won't score many points. They also don't have any home field advantage anymore, since they moved to whatever they call the Dolphins home stadium these days. They'll probably draw about 20k per game.

4. Louisville: How the mighty have fallen. This team used to assault whatever team had the misfortune of playing them at home. Now they are but a shell of themselves, having lost at home to Syracuse of all people, the undisputed king of the BCS weaklings. They lost just about every link to their dominant recent past this past year. All new receivers, only the fullback returns in the backfield, and the QB is new, although Hunter Cantwell has played some in the past. Defensively, they were atrocious, so they'll have to outscore people with all new skill players, unless of course they morph into a sturdy defense overnight.

others: Mostly the usual suspects...Akron will be bad, Army, Tulane, Syracuse(really bad). I think Sly Croom will return to his rightful place in the SEC JV, they'll probably get lapped by Nutt at Ole Miss, and eventually Petrino at Arkansas. Not a fan of Texas this year, and won't until they learn to play some pass D. Colt Mc Coy lost a lot of his buddies on offense too. I assume they'll reload, but whispers are that Mack Brown missed a bit on the last couple recruiting classes.

Some trends: All ATS

Under Miles, LSU is 11-2 in nonconference ATS, 6-17-3 in conference.
Saban was 1-6 as a favorite last year at Bama.
Northwestern is 0-5 as a home favorite under Pat Fitzgerald.
Missouri is 10-2 in the NC the last 3 years, Illinois is 1-6 NC in the last 2. Hmmmmmmm.
Urban Meyer is 2-9 as a road favorite at Florida.
Oregon is 12-3 as a home favorite the last 3 years.
Arizona is 1-6 as a HF under Mike Stoops.
Wyoming is 5-18 in conference over the past 3 years.

There are some others, but there are the extremes. Well, that's it for the preseason. Let's get this thing rolling. Week one musings will be coming shortly. Keep it real.