Well....I guess the Arizona bet didn't go well. Missed it by.......about a light year. That's a couple pretty strong defensive performances put up by Nebraska over the past couple of games, no? I will apologize for doubting the Huskers, for fear that their defensive line will finish consuming the flesh of the Arizona offensive line, turn their attention to me, storm to Fishers, drag me out to my front yard and throw me around like a rag doll for 3 hours. that treatment would be no different than those to have gotten recently.
Air Force +5 1/2 v Houston: Taking a bit of a flyer on the flyboys here. We all know that Houston is a heck of an offensive team, one that obviously can cause some problems for Air Force, but there's a couple things working in AF's favor here. First, they have been very stout on defense, ranking 16th in overall yards per play during the season. Also, Houston has been predictably bad against the run all year, ranking 108th. they've also lost in recent weeks to East Carolina and UCF, teams that are infeior to Air Force. I also can't see how Houston gets up for this game. They played and beat this same Air Force team by 6 in this exact same bowl a year ago. I would think that AF will have the motivational edge in this one. Both teams are likely to move the ball quite a bit on the other, but Air Force has a pretty good defense capable of stoipping Houston and their getting more than a FG. I think AF+ is the right side here.
Stanford +10 v Oklahoma: I'm not exactly sprinting to the window on this one after having watched Arizona's performance against Nebraska last night, as we're talking about another Pac-10/Big 12 game here, but I'll carry on. Actually, the pc-10 as a whole has been unimpressive...Cal and Oregon St losing to MWC teams(no shame in that actually), and only USC looking decent. There's actually no honor in that either...it's like being happy about Ohio St winning the Motor City Bowl. Anyway, Oklahoma is a double digit favorite in this game mostly because the Cardinal will most likely be without Andrew Luck. Even if that's the case, and I don't trust Harbaugh to not be playing coy on this whole deal, you can do worse than tavita Pritchard as the backup. The team loves him, Harbaugh has confidence in him, and he's had some success in the past. Stanford's offense, by the way was one of the best in the country this year: 9th overall, 5th in rushing and 21st in passing. The offense was good because there were 11 guys makng suere it was good. when you take the QB away, it makes a difference, but doesn't turn them into a Arizona circa 12/30/09 overnight. Also, if you examine OU in games away from home, they were not good...actually being outgained by opponents for the season in their road games. Included in there are some horrible efforts against the likes of Texas Tech and BYU, not bad defenses, but by no means juggernauts. Stanford struggles some on defense, so the Sooners will have some success if they get Ryan Broyles involved, but i don't think they are in the position to dominate a team that has a lot of reasons to feel good about itself. The apparent weakness of the Pac 10, which looks to be being exposed this bowl season worres me though.
Iowa St +2 v Minnesota: More of a fade of Minnesota more than anything else. Iowa St is certainly not a good offensive football team, but neither is Minnesota. Even with All everything WR Eric Decker, they were a 90-95 ranked offense, and now that he's gone...well, they ain't too good. This is the kind of matchup that depresses the hell out of you if you're an Illinois football fan. These two piece of shit teams can qualify for a bowl and we can't? What a disgrace. Good thing they fired Zook, so we at least have some hope for the future. What????!!!!! Anyway, neither of these teams does anywell well, with the possible exception of Iowa St's ability to run the ball. also, it seems that Iowa St has some positive momentum because they have really rallied around their new coach, a players guy apparently. The additional motivation and positivity on the Iowa st side combined with their ability to run the ball, Minnesota's patheticness and 2 points are enough for me to go with Iowa St.
Virginia Tech -5 v Tennessee: Here's another SEC v ACC example. VT is normally immune to this type of analysis, but the last 2 years have disqualified them from that immunity. The fact that they lost at home to UNC cemented it. They're a bona fide ACC team now. I went into capping this game fully expecting to be taking the points here, but the facts lead me back to VT. You really hate to take an ACC team over an SEC team, especially when you have to lay points, but i'm prepared to do it since it's less than a TD. Tennessee has had a nice year, better than most weould have anticipated thanks to a solid defense and massive improvement from QB Jonathan Crompton. However, this is not a deep team, and has some flaws. They have struggled to stop good running games this year. Dexter McCluster from Ole Miss embarrassed them(285 rush yards), Curtis steele from memphis got 140 on them, Randall Cobb from kentucky ran all over them, ben tate from Auburn gashed them...you get the picture. gthey're ranked 72nd against the run, and the only reason they are that high is that they held Western Ky to negative rush yards in their opener. Meanwhile, Va tech's defense matches up well with them because they can get after the QB and has been good against the run, and is ranked 8th against the pass. Special teams are a heavy edge to the Hokies as well, as Tennessee has been bad kicking FGs as well as in their coverage teams. The one weakness that the Hokies have is that they give up a lot of sacks, but UT hasn't pressured the QB all year, so Taylor will probably have a chance to be comfortable, and when he has been, he's been effective throwing the ball. Seriously, I like betting on Tennessee, as a review of the previous musings will bear out, but this is a bad matchup for them.
Really having a hard time figuring out what to do with Navy/Missouri. Navy is getting 6/6.5, and I would be inclined to go with them in most cases, but I think Mizzou is a bad matchup for them with their passing game. Going to sit that one out.
I'll be back with New Year's Day bowls here before too long. Sorry for the tardiness in these.
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Wednesday, December 30, 2009
12/30 Bowl Musings
Surprisingly, we've been doing ok on the bowls thus far.(6-2). Even UCLA covered yesterday and I threw a few bucks on the Badgers last night and that worked out as well. I'm going to try to get something down on paper on the rest of the bowl games, just for accounting purposes, so forgive me for the minutia.
Back to that UCLA game. Having watched a decent portion of that game(another example of the power gambling has toward TV ratings), I came away thinking that UCLA is perhaps the worst team that I've ever cashed a bet on. Their running back Chane Moline has to be the slowest running back in the game today. His "moves" reminded me of this guy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vMA22xJEcQ. Their QB Kevin Prince, is perhaps as bad as Kevin Craft, the walking defensive TD himself, and I never thought I'd say that about any QB past the age of 13. He's a dizzying combination of al the things you don't want in a QB: Poor accuracy, noodle arm, slow, unaware of pressure, etc. Their defense gave up 3 TD's to what has to be one of the worst offenses that has appeared on national TV in a decade, with the possible exception of OHIO U a couple days ago. (108 total yards). Yet they covered.
Also, speaking of the Champs Sports Bowl last night, Miami broke the record for worst uniforms I have ever seen..a record that has been shattered 7 times previously this year. the guys that had their white socks pulled up absolutely looked like they were wearing ballet outfits. Mike and I discussed this, and we determined that if there was such a thing as a female football league, their uniforms would have looked like the ones Miami wore last night. No wonder Wisconsin pummelled them for 3 hours.
Idaho -1 v Bowling Green: This game has been lined with BG a small favorite for the past 2 weeks, and I grabbed it at +2 over the weekend, but it's settled in now with the Vandals as a small favorite. We basically have 2 middle of the pack teams from weak conferences matching up here in a battle of terrrible defenses. BG can't stop the run to save their lives, and Idaho is absolutely helpless in all phases. I'm always nervous betting on a team that I know going in has almost no chance of stopping the opponent, but the same can be said about BG's potential ability to stop Idaho's attack. Idaho is 3rd in the country in yards per play and also 3rd in yards per pass attempt. BG is 93rd. Idaho's offense is actually very balanced, as they have made plays down the field in the passing game as well as in the run game. their run game features 3 running backs who have had success this year, and believe it or not, they have an OT that is going to get drafted early this year(Mike Iupati). BG, conversely is ranked 110th against the run, and they certainly don't have any defensive lineman that can match up with Iupati. On the other side of the ball, I'll be very surprised if BG experiences much resistance from the Idaho D, but BG is more of a dink and dunk type of offense, so there exists more of a chance that penalties or turnovers might hurt them. Also, this game is in Boise, so they have all the disadvantages of travelling, while Idaho will be playing in their home state in front of their fans(however many they have). Public is also mostly on BG. At the end of the day, I think there's value in taking the better offense in a game in which the defenses will only be serving as window dressing.
Arizona +3 v Nebraska: You always have to avoid putting too much stock in what a team did in it's last game. In most cases, you'll find teams overvalued when they blow someone out in their previous game or win impressively over a solid opponent. In this case, Nebraska didn't even win it's game, but looked so good defensively against Texas that you'd think nobody would have chance to score against them at this juncture. Of course, you'd have to forget that Nebraska's offense has been putrid for most of the year and barely gained 100 yards themselves in that fabled Big 12 title game. If you take away Nebraska's 3 games against Sun belt opponents in the nonconference, Nebraska is averaging 270.5 yards per game for the season, havng been outgained overall. There is no doubt that their defense is good, and I am just as mesmerized as the next guy by Ndamakong Suh, but their offense is going to have just as tough a time scoring on Arizona, maybe moreso, than Arizona will have scoring on them. Looking at the numbers, Arizona will have the advantage against Nebraska's run game and their pass game, and they have been able to put pressure on teams, ranking 12th in the country in sacks.On the other side of the ball, Arizona is a well balanced offense. They have put up good numbers against good defenses, and have a fighting chance to catch Nebraska on some big plays. I think this comes down to 2 teams that are likely to struggle offensively, but I'll take the much better offense that's getting a FG.
That's it for now..I'll have more later on the big slate coming up over the next 3 days.
Back to that UCLA game. Having watched a decent portion of that game(another example of the power gambling has toward TV ratings), I came away thinking that UCLA is perhaps the worst team that I've ever cashed a bet on. Their running back Chane Moline has to be the slowest running back in the game today. His "moves" reminded me of this guy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vMA22xJEcQ. Their QB Kevin Prince, is perhaps as bad as Kevin Craft, the walking defensive TD himself, and I never thought I'd say that about any QB past the age of 13. He's a dizzying combination of al the things you don't want in a QB: Poor accuracy, noodle arm, slow, unaware of pressure, etc. Their defense gave up 3 TD's to what has to be one of the worst offenses that has appeared on national TV in a decade, with the possible exception of OHIO U a couple days ago. (108 total yards). Yet they covered.
Also, speaking of the Champs Sports Bowl last night, Miami broke the record for worst uniforms I have ever seen..a record that has been shattered 7 times previously this year. the guys that had their white socks pulled up absolutely looked like they were wearing ballet outfits. Mike and I discussed this, and we determined that if there was such a thing as a female football league, their uniforms would have looked like the ones Miami wore last night. No wonder Wisconsin pummelled them for 3 hours.
Idaho -1 v Bowling Green: This game has been lined with BG a small favorite for the past 2 weeks, and I grabbed it at +2 over the weekend, but it's settled in now with the Vandals as a small favorite. We basically have 2 middle of the pack teams from weak conferences matching up here in a battle of terrrible defenses. BG can't stop the run to save their lives, and Idaho is absolutely helpless in all phases. I'm always nervous betting on a team that I know going in has almost no chance of stopping the opponent, but the same can be said about BG's potential ability to stop Idaho's attack. Idaho is 3rd in the country in yards per play and also 3rd in yards per pass attempt. BG is 93rd. Idaho's offense is actually very balanced, as they have made plays down the field in the passing game as well as in the run game. their run game features 3 running backs who have had success this year, and believe it or not, they have an OT that is going to get drafted early this year(Mike Iupati). BG, conversely is ranked 110th against the run, and they certainly don't have any defensive lineman that can match up with Iupati. On the other side of the ball, I'll be very surprised if BG experiences much resistance from the Idaho D, but BG is more of a dink and dunk type of offense, so there exists more of a chance that penalties or turnovers might hurt them. Also, this game is in Boise, so they have all the disadvantages of travelling, while Idaho will be playing in their home state in front of their fans(however many they have). Public is also mostly on BG. At the end of the day, I think there's value in taking the better offense in a game in which the defenses will only be serving as window dressing.
Arizona +3 v Nebraska: You always have to avoid putting too much stock in what a team did in it's last game. In most cases, you'll find teams overvalued when they blow someone out in their previous game or win impressively over a solid opponent. In this case, Nebraska didn't even win it's game, but looked so good defensively against Texas that you'd think nobody would have chance to score against them at this juncture. Of course, you'd have to forget that Nebraska's offense has been putrid for most of the year and barely gained 100 yards themselves in that fabled Big 12 title game. If you take away Nebraska's 3 games against Sun belt opponents in the nonconference, Nebraska is averaging 270.5 yards per game for the season, havng been outgained overall. There is no doubt that their defense is good, and I am just as mesmerized as the next guy by Ndamakong Suh, but their offense is going to have just as tough a time scoring on Arizona, maybe moreso, than Arizona will have scoring on them. Looking at the numbers, Arizona will have the advantage against Nebraska's run game and their pass game, and they have been able to put pressure on teams, ranking 12th in the country in sacks.On the other side of the ball, Arizona is a well balanced offense. They have put up good numbers against good defenses, and have a fighting chance to catch Nebraska on some big plays. I think this comes down to 2 teams that are likely to struggle offensively, but I'll take the much better offense that's getting a FG.
That's it for now..I'll have more later on the big slate coming up over the next 3 days.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Bowl Musings 12/29
Just one for tomorrow...
UCLA -4 v Temple: At first glance, you might look at the stats for this game and comw to the conclusion that a disinterested UCLA team might be ripe for the picking. They spent the lion's share of the season getting outgained severely, and now they play a Temple team that had all kinds of success against it's own MAC slate this year. However, this a good case of schedule strength. There certainly exists a possibility where UCLA will stagger into the Washington DC, all the way on the other side of the country and lay an egg, but I don't think the circumstances will bear that out. If UCLA was playing in their 5th straight bowl game, and there were high expectations coming into the season, this might be a snoozer for UCLA, in which case Temple can jump up and surprise them. That's not the case. UCLA missed out on a bowl game last year, and this is their first one under Neuheisel, so I think they will be well prepared and eager to start building on next year. Also, in these kinds of games, the underdog needs to have an offense that can cause problems for the opponent. In this case, Temple can't throw the ball, and relies completely on a straight forward run game. they played only one BCS conference team this year(Penn State) and were completely shut down. The difference in athleticism will be too great for temple to be able to smash mouth it on UCLA. If they ran a tricky spread or something, they might get UCLA frustrated and have some legs toward an upset. I really don't see a scenario where UCLA will let them physically dominate. maybe Al Golden has some tricks up his sleeves in the passing game, but since his team was ranked 106th in the country in pass efficiency against a MAC slate, i'm guessing he won't. Like I said, there's potential for a disinterested favorite/upstart on fire type game here, but the matchup just doesn't fit the mold. i think UCLA handles them in this one.
The Champs sports Bowl is a total tossup, with a slight edge to Miami because they are playing in Flroda and because Wisconsin's pass defense looks to not match up well with the Miami attack. Despite that, though, I'm taking the 4(bought it) with the Badgers. #1, Miami is very unlikely to have success running on Wisconsin, and the Badgers are very good at putting pressure on the QB, ranking in the top 20 nationally in sacks. jacory Harris has been harrassed a lot this year...their 108th in sacks allowed. I also think they'll have some success with play action when the Canes try to load up to stop John Clay. enough positives to take the 4 I think.
UCLA -4 v Temple: At first glance, you might look at the stats for this game and comw to the conclusion that a disinterested UCLA team might be ripe for the picking. They spent the lion's share of the season getting outgained severely, and now they play a Temple team that had all kinds of success against it's own MAC slate this year. However, this a good case of schedule strength. There certainly exists a possibility where UCLA will stagger into the Washington DC, all the way on the other side of the country and lay an egg, but I don't think the circumstances will bear that out. If UCLA was playing in their 5th straight bowl game, and there were high expectations coming into the season, this might be a snoozer for UCLA, in which case Temple can jump up and surprise them. That's not the case. UCLA missed out on a bowl game last year, and this is their first one under Neuheisel, so I think they will be well prepared and eager to start building on next year. Also, in these kinds of games, the underdog needs to have an offense that can cause problems for the opponent. In this case, Temple can't throw the ball, and relies completely on a straight forward run game. they played only one BCS conference team this year(Penn State) and were completely shut down. The difference in athleticism will be too great for temple to be able to smash mouth it on UCLA. If they ran a tricky spread or something, they might get UCLA frustrated and have some legs toward an upset. I really don't see a scenario where UCLA will let them physically dominate. maybe Al Golden has some tricks up his sleeves in the passing game, but since his team was ranked 106th in the country in pass efficiency against a MAC slate, i'm guessing he won't. Like I said, there's potential for a disinterested favorite/upstart on fire type game here, but the matchup just doesn't fit the mold. i think UCLA handles them in this one.
The Champs sports Bowl is a total tossup, with a slight edge to Miami because they are playing in Flroda and because Wisconsin's pass defense looks to not match up well with the Miami attack. Despite that, though, I'm taking the 4(bought it) with the Badgers. #1, Miami is very unlikely to have success running on Wisconsin, and the Badgers are very good at putting pressure on the QB, ranking in the top 20 nationally in sacks. jacory Harris has been harrassed a lot this year...their 108th in sacks allowed. I also think they'll have some success with play action when the Canes try to load up to stop John Clay. enough positives to take the 4 I think.
Merry Christmas musings
We'll move on to the next few days....Merry Christmas by the way!
Tomorrow
Marshall +3 v Ohio: Looking at this game, I see a bit of a stalemate. The offenses are pretty similar, but Ohio has a statistically better defense. I think you might be able to chalk that up to conference differences, because although it's not a great league, CUSA is certainly a step up from the MAC. Ohio had a nice year, but I'm really missing the reasons why so many people assume that they will walk all over Marshall. On ESPN last night, I noticed that 90% of the public(via their bowl challenge) is on Ohio in this game. This is no MAC juggernaut we're talking about here. Ohio had problems with high tempo offenses just like everyone else in their league would. Marshall isn't necessarily what I would call a high octane offense, but they have some good players, namely their RB Darius Marshall, and their QB Anderson is a pretty decent thrower as well, especially in the past few games. If I have the ability to go against a mediocre public team, I'm going to do it, espcially when the dog is from a stronger conference. Ohio also does not have much of a bowl pedigree. Lots of people making unsound assumptions in Ohio's favor in my opinion here.
Pitt -1 v North Carolina: I'm a big believer in situational advantages, especially in bowls, and you can make a case that Pitt is stuck behind the 8 ball in that regard here. They were a whisker away from playing in the BCS, and now they have to play an also-ran ACC team on the day after Christmas. To say they're disappointed with their bowl assignment would be an understatment. Take it up with the Big East I guess. Anyway, that motivation disadvantage appears to be tied up in this line, because on paper, Pitt is the much more well rounded team. I've been saying for several weeks that I thought they were among the best offense/defense mixes in the country. North Carolina has also been very good on defense, so good in fact that I considered taking the points with them, but the spread is now down to 2. truly, if Pitt shows up and plays even close to their normal game, they have a 67/33 chance of winning this game. UNC is going to have problems maintaining any drives against this Pitt defense, as they did against almost everyone they played this year. They certainly are capable of a big play on offense and are a threat to bring back an INT for a score, but Pitt is probably a better bet to do that considering TJ Yates's issues with INTs this year and Bill Stull's relative care with the ball. Pitt is also capable of big plays themselves. I just think Pitt is the better team, despite the motivational disadvantage. Both defenses might have advantages in this one, but Pitt's is minimal(UNC had issues with good pass attacks this year)while UNC's is profound.
USC -7 v Boston College: Statistically, this isn't as big of a mismatch as you might think , but in my opinion, a lot of intangibles favor USC in this one. Matt barkley has been a problem for USC this year, mostly in cases where he was pressured into throwing INTs. BC, however, ranks 99th in the country in sacks. They're strength on defense has been stopping the run, but teams with good rushing attacks(Va tech, Clemson) have shredded them. USc can still run it, despite their issues on offense. Also, BC has struggled like crazy to score on the road. Terrible defenses like Notre Dame and Maryland have held them under 20 points in recent weeks, and I think the same will be true with USC here. Frank Spaziani walks into his first bowl game against Pete Carroll..not a good matchup based on Pete's recent bowl success. If BC is going to compete in this game, QB Dave Shinskie will have to be a net positive for them. There is no evidence that he can be that in this environment. BC is kind of like a poor man's UCLA. Spread is about the same as that game, and I expect a similar result. Somewhere in the 28-7 range. I'll be rooting for BC, of course. If i'm wrong here, it won't bother me in the slightest. USC remain a bunch of thug assholes, even after their humbling season. F Pete Carroll.
I'll have some additional thoughts hopefullt tomorrow on some additional upcoming games. One preview though....if you can get UCLA -4 against Temple, go ahead and jump on it now.
others...I'm going to take the points with Kentucky since I get more than a score now.(7.5) SEC vs ACC mostly, and I think Kentucky is much better coached and has a secondary that matches up well with the young QB.
Also going with Georgia on Monday. Don't like laying points here, but there's no way a sad sack team like A&M sacks up and beats a decent SEC team. Georgia has taken some lumps this year, but they haven't been as bad as it seems. It's under 7 now, but so I'll go with the Dawgs.
Tomorrow
Marshall +3 v Ohio: Looking at this game, I see a bit of a stalemate. The offenses are pretty similar, but Ohio has a statistically better defense. I think you might be able to chalk that up to conference differences, because although it's not a great league, CUSA is certainly a step up from the MAC. Ohio had a nice year, but I'm really missing the reasons why so many people assume that they will walk all over Marshall. On ESPN last night, I noticed that 90% of the public(via their bowl challenge) is on Ohio in this game. This is no MAC juggernaut we're talking about here. Ohio had problems with high tempo offenses just like everyone else in their league would. Marshall isn't necessarily what I would call a high octane offense, but they have some good players, namely their RB Darius Marshall, and their QB Anderson is a pretty decent thrower as well, especially in the past few games. If I have the ability to go against a mediocre public team, I'm going to do it, espcially when the dog is from a stronger conference. Ohio also does not have much of a bowl pedigree. Lots of people making unsound assumptions in Ohio's favor in my opinion here.
Pitt -1 v North Carolina: I'm a big believer in situational advantages, especially in bowls, and you can make a case that Pitt is stuck behind the 8 ball in that regard here. They were a whisker away from playing in the BCS, and now they have to play an also-ran ACC team on the day after Christmas. To say they're disappointed with their bowl assignment would be an understatment. Take it up with the Big East I guess. Anyway, that motivation disadvantage appears to be tied up in this line, because on paper, Pitt is the much more well rounded team. I've been saying for several weeks that I thought they were among the best offense/defense mixes in the country. North Carolina has also been very good on defense, so good in fact that I considered taking the points with them, but the spread is now down to 2. truly, if Pitt shows up and plays even close to their normal game, they have a 67/33 chance of winning this game. UNC is going to have problems maintaining any drives against this Pitt defense, as they did against almost everyone they played this year. They certainly are capable of a big play on offense and are a threat to bring back an INT for a score, but Pitt is probably a better bet to do that considering TJ Yates's issues with INTs this year and Bill Stull's relative care with the ball. Pitt is also capable of big plays themselves. I just think Pitt is the better team, despite the motivational disadvantage. Both defenses might have advantages in this one, but Pitt's is minimal(UNC had issues with good pass attacks this year)while UNC's is profound.
USC -7 v Boston College: Statistically, this isn't as big of a mismatch as you might think , but in my opinion, a lot of intangibles favor USC in this one. Matt barkley has been a problem for USC this year, mostly in cases where he was pressured into throwing INTs. BC, however, ranks 99th in the country in sacks. They're strength on defense has been stopping the run, but teams with good rushing attacks(Va tech, Clemson) have shredded them. USc can still run it, despite their issues on offense. Also, BC has struggled like crazy to score on the road. Terrible defenses like Notre Dame and Maryland have held them under 20 points in recent weeks, and I think the same will be true with USC here. Frank Spaziani walks into his first bowl game against Pete Carroll..not a good matchup based on Pete's recent bowl success. If BC is going to compete in this game, QB Dave Shinskie will have to be a net positive for them. There is no evidence that he can be that in this environment. BC is kind of like a poor man's UCLA. Spread is about the same as that game, and I expect a similar result. Somewhere in the 28-7 range. I'll be rooting for BC, of course. If i'm wrong here, it won't bother me in the slightest. USC remain a bunch of thug assholes, even after their humbling season. F Pete Carroll.
I'll have some additional thoughts hopefullt tomorrow on some additional upcoming games. One preview though....if you can get UCLA -4 against Temple, go ahead and jump on it now.
others...I'm going to take the points with Kentucky since I get more than a score now.(7.5) SEC vs ACC mostly, and I think Kentucky is much better coached and has a secondary that matches up well with the young QB.
Also going with Georgia on Monday. Don't like laying points here, but there's no way a sad sack team like A&M sacks up and beats a decent SEC team. Georgia has taken some lumps this year, but they haven't been as bad as it seems. It's under 7 now, but so I'll go with the Dawgs.
Bowl Musings through Christmas
Well, 2 games, and predictably a 1-1 record. We move on.
The game Tuesday night in Vegas is a head scratcher. Last year, BYU outplayed Arizona but lost in this same bowl. Now they return, likely looking for some redemption against an Oregon State team that always seems to play well. BYU, as usual dominated the competition when they were heavily favored, but struggled when they were playing anyone with a pulse. Even though i think they will have the motivational edge and hold some statistical advantages on paper, I'm going to side with the hordes on this one and go with the Beavers. At the end of the day, BYu has struggled to score against real defenses, and has shown chinks in the defensive armor in these cases as well. Meanwhile, although OSU has shown some weakness on D, they have also handled solid offenses like Cal and fought hard against a great offense in Cincinnati. I think they'll find a way to win while BYU figures out a way to lose it. OSU - 2.5...up to 3.
I really like SMU in their game on the island against Nevada Christmas Eve catching 14-15. I got it at 15 a few days ago, the number is 14.5 currently. To me, this is a matchup between two defenses who will be struggling mightily to stop the opposing offense. Nevada's run game is ridiculously good. It's not even worth looking up what SMU has done against the rush this year, as Nevada will certainly pile up the rushng yards. What is also apparent is that Nevada will struggle to stop SMU's pass offense, as they are dead last aginst the pass this year. Nevad also will be missing both of their top RBs, Lippincott and Taua, but they'll have QB Colin Kaepernick, who is the ley for them. June Jones is returning to the island, and I have a hunch that SMU will be more motivated for their first bowl game in 25 years. More than 2 TDs is just too much here when you consider that SMU will havbe all knids of success throwing the ball on Nevada's defense. Take the points here.
As for the others, I'll be going with Utah + points (3). Also giving it a whirl with MTSU to surprise So Miss.
I'll have more thoughts soon....
The game Tuesday night in Vegas is a head scratcher. Last year, BYU outplayed Arizona but lost in this same bowl. Now they return, likely looking for some redemption against an Oregon State team that always seems to play well. BYU, as usual dominated the competition when they were heavily favored, but struggled when they were playing anyone with a pulse. Even though i think they will have the motivational edge and hold some statistical advantages on paper, I'm going to side with the hordes on this one and go with the Beavers. At the end of the day, BYu has struggled to score against real defenses, and has shown chinks in the defensive armor in these cases as well. Meanwhile, although OSU has shown some weakness on D, they have also handled solid offenses like Cal and fought hard against a great offense in Cincinnati. I think they'll find a way to win while BYU figures out a way to lose it. OSU - 2.5...up to 3.
I really like SMU in their game on the island against Nevada Christmas Eve catching 14-15. I got it at 15 a few days ago, the number is 14.5 currently. To me, this is a matchup between two defenses who will be struggling mightily to stop the opposing offense. Nevada's run game is ridiculously good. It's not even worth looking up what SMU has done against the rush this year, as Nevada will certainly pile up the rushng yards. What is also apparent is that Nevada will struggle to stop SMU's pass offense, as they are dead last aginst the pass this year. Nevad also will be missing both of their top RBs, Lippincott and Taua, but they'll have QB Colin Kaepernick, who is the ley for them. June Jones is returning to the island, and I have a hunch that SMU will be more motivated for their first bowl game in 25 years. More than 2 TDs is just too much here when you consider that SMU will havbe all knids of success throwing the ball on Nevada's defense. Take the points here.
As for the others, I'll be going with Utah + points (3). Also giving it a whirl with MTSU to surprise So Miss.
I'll have more thoughts soon....
Bowl Musings!!!!
Sorry for the late post...Christmas traveling and all. I'll paste these...you'll have to trust that I didn't write these "posthumously"
Greetings to all this Christmas season. I hope that everyone is in good spirits, as you all should be, since Bowl season is upon us. I've quoted Andy Williams before, but I'll do it again. It's the most wonderful time of the year. I've not finished taking a close look at the entire card of bowl games, but I figured i'd give you some thoughts on the games today. I doubt seriously that I'll have any thoughts on the Sunday game, the R&L Carriers Excrement Bowl or whatever it is. On second thought, I really shouldn't disparage any of these bowls, since we all know I'll be watching and wagering on all of them, and Lord knows that there are plenty of amateur comedians posing as sports media that do plenty of that. Which reminds me of one of my pet peeves....I was listening to a radio program during one of my countless death marches across this godforsaken state of half-hearted facial hair, and the hosts were having a contest of who knew less about some of the teams that made bowls. Now, keep in mind that these jackasses are paid to know sports. Why do people like to flaunt their ignorance? More evidence that I hate everyone, and you all should too.
The Big Ten is going to expand, and the reason they give is that it will help them in the current BCS format because they currently fall out of the public eye because they finish their season earlier than everyone else and don't play a conference championship game. I apologize for my dullardness, but I'm missing the logic here. Hasn't Ohio St played in the MNC game three times since '02? Didn't they make it twice in a row just a couple years ago? Wouldn't adding another game to potentially lose HURT their chances? Here's two scenarios: 1.Ohio St has one loss on Nov 22. They beat michigan that day. they finish 11-1, their season is over. Florida has one loss. They beat Florida St on Nov 22. Now they play LSU or Alabama, who both have 2 losses in the SEC championship game. Who has a better chance to end up with one loss? Which team's conference set up makes it tougher? Am I missing something here? Anyway, the Big Ten's possible expansion will probably set the groundwork for an 8 team playoff, and if a playoff is inevitable, this is what they should do...if a playoff is inevitable:
Expand the Big Ten and the PAC 10 to 12 teams apiece so the top 6 conferences all have title games, effectively creating a first round of playoffs that first week of December. You then eliminate any crying from a conference also ran not making it. You have to win your conference to be in, period. Throw Utah and BYU in the Pac 10, so you continue to have a network of travel partners, much like it currently exists now. Add Nevada and Boise to the Mountain West and make them the 7th automatic bid to the BCS. The 8th team is whoever's champion of the remaining conferences is ranked the highest. If you made those changes, you'd be eliminating almost all of the possible teams that are currently beefing about being left out of the current set up. Seed the teams 1-8 and switch off each year between the 4 BCS bowls on who gets which game. Add two more games the following week for the winners and a title game the week after, again at revolving sites. (Sorry Rose Bowl purists, but the Rose Bowl blew it by bastardizing themselves in the first place when they agreed to become part of the deal back in the 90's. Once Washington St played Oklahoma that one year, the sanctity was gone for me, so screw it.)It's going to cause problems for fans having to travel for poitentially 4 neutral site games, but at least we won't have some sort of 16 team abomination that destroys the bowl system.
Here's my thoughts on the Saturday games. I'd characterize these both as also rans, not numbered musings, though I think I'm going to keep track of all the games I bet. What the hell...
Wyoming +11 v Fresno St: Wyoming might be one of the worst teams statistically on paper to make a bowl in a long time. Their offense is ranked in the low 100's and their defense isn't much better, but they beat some bad teams and plied up 6 wins. They find themselves matched up with Fresno, who can't stop anyone on defense, but has a nice running game thanks to RB Ryan matthews, who led the country in rushing this year. Wyoming, however, held up well against against teams with weak defenses, which Fresno certainly is. We also know that Fresno has a hell of a time scaring up any resolve to play teams they can't prove anything against, and Wyoming would qualify as one of those teams, just like another 6-6 MWC team Colorado St did last year. CSU beat Fresno outright as an 8 point favorite. I just think the motivational edge goes to Wyoming, and I think they'll find themselves having success moving the ball with their modified spread. i'll take the points.
UCF +3 (I'll be buying up from 2.5 if necessary) v Rutgers: Big situational edge here for UCF who is better offensively than a lot of people think. They'll be playing close to home and reports are that they'll have a good contingent of fans there in St Pete. Rutgers kids are taking finals as late as this morning with proctors on site, and they've only had one week off since the end of their season to prepare. They probably won't have one of their key playmakers Tim Brown, who has a bad high ankle sprain. Also, UCF stops the run very well and is 6th in the country in sacks, while Rutgers doesn't run it all that well and is 112th in the country in giving up sacks. UCF will probably have some issues moving it on Rutgers as well, but i think positive momentum will carry them to some big plays, which Rutgers has been prone to giving up this year. The Knights are due for a loss in the postseason..it just looks like there are too many peripheral disadvantages for them to overcome this year.
that's it for now....Take care everyone!!!
Greetings to all this Christmas season. I hope that everyone is in good spirits, as you all should be, since Bowl season is upon us. I've quoted Andy Williams before, but I'll do it again. It's the most wonderful time of the year. I've not finished taking a close look at the entire card of bowl games, but I figured i'd give you some thoughts on the games today. I doubt seriously that I'll have any thoughts on the Sunday game, the R&L Carriers Excrement Bowl or whatever it is. On second thought, I really shouldn't disparage any of these bowls, since we all know I'll be watching and wagering on all of them, and Lord knows that there are plenty of amateur comedians posing as sports media that do plenty of that. Which reminds me of one of my pet peeves....I was listening to a radio program during one of my countless death marches across this godforsaken state of half-hearted facial hair, and the hosts were having a contest of who knew less about some of the teams that made bowls. Now, keep in mind that these jackasses are paid to know sports. Why do people like to flaunt their ignorance? More evidence that I hate everyone, and you all should too.
The Big Ten is going to expand, and the reason they give is that it will help them in the current BCS format because they currently fall out of the public eye because they finish their season earlier than everyone else and don't play a conference championship game. I apologize for my dullardness, but I'm missing the logic here. Hasn't Ohio St played in the MNC game three times since '02? Didn't they make it twice in a row just a couple years ago? Wouldn't adding another game to potentially lose HURT their chances? Here's two scenarios: 1.Ohio St has one loss on Nov 22. They beat michigan that day. they finish 11-1, their season is over. Florida has one loss. They beat Florida St on Nov 22. Now they play LSU or Alabama, who both have 2 losses in the SEC championship game. Who has a better chance to end up with one loss? Which team's conference set up makes it tougher? Am I missing something here? Anyway, the Big Ten's possible expansion will probably set the groundwork for an 8 team playoff, and if a playoff is inevitable, this is what they should do...if a playoff is inevitable:
Expand the Big Ten and the PAC 10 to 12 teams apiece so the top 6 conferences all have title games, effectively creating a first round of playoffs that first week of December. You then eliminate any crying from a conference also ran not making it. You have to win your conference to be in, period. Throw Utah and BYU in the Pac 10, so you continue to have a network of travel partners, much like it currently exists now. Add Nevada and Boise to the Mountain West and make them the 7th automatic bid to the BCS. The 8th team is whoever's champion of the remaining conferences is ranked the highest. If you made those changes, you'd be eliminating almost all of the possible teams that are currently beefing about being left out of the current set up. Seed the teams 1-8 and switch off each year between the 4 BCS bowls on who gets which game. Add two more games the following week for the winners and a title game the week after, again at revolving sites. (Sorry Rose Bowl purists, but the Rose Bowl blew it by bastardizing themselves in the first place when they agreed to become part of the deal back in the 90's. Once Washington St played Oklahoma that one year, the sanctity was gone for me, so screw it.)It's going to cause problems for fans having to travel for poitentially 4 neutral site games, but at least we won't have some sort of 16 team abomination that destroys the bowl system.
Here's my thoughts on the Saturday games. I'd characterize these both as also rans, not numbered musings, though I think I'm going to keep track of all the games I bet. What the hell...
Wyoming +11 v Fresno St: Wyoming might be one of the worst teams statistically on paper to make a bowl in a long time. Their offense is ranked in the low 100's and their defense isn't much better, but they beat some bad teams and plied up 6 wins. They find themselves matched up with Fresno, who can't stop anyone on defense, but has a nice running game thanks to RB Ryan matthews, who led the country in rushing this year. Wyoming, however, held up well against against teams with weak defenses, which Fresno certainly is. We also know that Fresno has a hell of a time scaring up any resolve to play teams they can't prove anything against, and Wyoming would qualify as one of those teams, just like another 6-6 MWC team Colorado St did last year. CSU beat Fresno outright as an 8 point favorite. I just think the motivational edge goes to Wyoming, and I think they'll find themselves having success moving the ball with their modified spread. i'll take the points.
UCF +3 (I'll be buying up from 2.5 if necessary) v Rutgers: Big situational edge here for UCF who is better offensively than a lot of people think. They'll be playing close to home and reports are that they'll have a good contingent of fans there in St Pete. Rutgers kids are taking finals as late as this morning with proctors on site, and they've only had one week off since the end of their season to prepare. They probably won't have one of their key playmakers Tim Brown, who has a bad high ankle sprain. Also, UCF stops the run very well and is 6th in the country in sacks, while Rutgers doesn't run it all that well and is 112th in the country in giving up sacks. UCF will probably have some issues moving it on Rutgers as well, but i think positive momentum will carry them to some big plays, which Rutgers has been prone to giving up this year. The Knights are due for a loss in the postseason..it just looks like there are too many peripheral disadvantages for them to overcome this year.
that's it for now....Take care everyone!!!
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)