12/31 Musings

Well....I guess the Arizona bet didn't go well. Missed it by.......about a light year. That's a couple pretty strong defensive performances put up by Nebraska over the past couple of games, no? I will apologize for doubting the Huskers, for fear that their defensive line will finish consuming the flesh of the Arizona offensive line, turn their attention to me, storm to Fishers, drag me out to my front yard and throw me around like a rag doll for 3 hours. that treatment would be no different than those to have gotten recently.

Air Force +5 1/2 v Houston: Taking a bit of a flyer on the flyboys here. We all know that Houston is a heck of an offensive team, one that obviously can cause some problems for Air Force, but there's a couple things working in AF's favor here. First, they have been very stout on defense, ranking 16th in overall yards per play during the season. Also, Houston has been predictably bad against the run all year, ranking 108th. they've also lost in recent weeks to East Carolina and UCF, teams that are infeior to Air Force. I also can't see how Houston gets up for this game. They played and beat this same Air Force team by 6 in this exact same bowl a year ago. I would think that AF will have the motivational edge in this one. Both teams are likely to move the ball quite a bit on the other, but Air Force has a pretty good defense capable of stoipping Houston and their getting more than a FG. I think AF+ is the right side here.

Stanford +10 v Oklahoma: I'm not exactly sprinting to the window on this one after having watched Arizona's performance against Nebraska last night, as we're talking about another Pac-10/Big 12 game here, but I'll carry on. Actually, the pc-10 as a whole has been unimpressive...Cal and Oregon St losing to MWC teams(no shame in that actually), and only USC looking decent. There's actually no honor in that either...it's like being happy about Ohio St winning the Motor City Bowl. Anyway, Oklahoma is a double digit favorite in this game mostly because the Cardinal will most likely be without Andrew Luck. Even if that's the case, and I don't trust Harbaugh to not be playing coy on this whole deal, you can do worse than tavita Pritchard as the backup. The team loves him, Harbaugh has confidence in him, and he's had some success in the past. Stanford's offense, by the way was one of the best in the country this year: 9th overall, 5th in rushing and 21st in passing. The offense was good because there were 11 guys makng suere it was good. when you take the QB away, it makes a difference, but doesn't turn them into a Arizona circa 12/30/09 overnight. Also, if you examine OU in games away from home, they were not good...actually being outgained by opponents for the season in their road games. Included in there are some horrible efforts against the likes of Texas Tech and BYU, not bad defenses, but by no means juggernauts. Stanford struggles some on defense, so the Sooners will have some success if they get Ryan Broyles involved, but i don't think they are in the position to dominate a team that has a lot of reasons to feel good about itself. The apparent weakness of the Pac 10, which looks to be being exposed this bowl season worres me though.

Iowa St +2 v Minnesota: More of a fade of Minnesota more than anything else. Iowa St is certainly not a good offensive football team, but neither is Minnesota. Even with All everything WR Eric Decker, they were a 90-95 ranked offense, and now that he's gone...well, they ain't too good. This is the kind of matchup that depresses the hell out of you if you're an Illinois football fan. These two piece of shit teams can qualify for a bowl and we can't? What a disgrace. Good thing they fired Zook, so we at least have some hope for the future. What????!!!!! Anyway, neither of these teams does anywell well, with the possible exception of Iowa St's ability to run the ball. also, it seems that Iowa St has some positive momentum because they have really rallied around their new coach, a players guy apparently. The additional motivation and positivity on the Iowa st side combined with their ability to run the ball, Minnesota's patheticness and 2 points are enough for me to go with Iowa St.

Virginia Tech -5 v Tennessee: Here's another SEC v ACC example. VT is normally immune to this type of analysis, but the last 2 years have disqualified them from that immunity. The fact that they lost at home to UNC cemented it. They're a bona fide ACC team now. I went into capping this game fully expecting to be taking the points here, but the facts lead me back to VT. You really hate to take an ACC team over an SEC team, especially when you have to lay points, but i'm prepared to do it since it's less than a TD. Tennessee has had a nice year, better than most weould have anticipated thanks to a solid defense and massive improvement from QB Jonathan Crompton. However, this is not a deep team, and has some flaws. They have struggled to stop good running games this year. Dexter McCluster from Ole Miss embarrassed them(285 rush yards), Curtis steele from memphis got 140 on them, Randall Cobb from kentucky ran all over them, ben tate from Auburn gashed them...you get the picture. gthey're ranked 72nd against the run, and the only reason they are that high is that they held Western Ky to negative rush yards in their opener. Meanwhile, Va tech's defense matches up well with them because they can get after the QB and has been good against the run, and is ranked 8th against the pass. Special teams are a heavy edge to the Hokies as well, as Tennessee has been bad kicking FGs as well as in their coverage teams. The one weakness that the Hokies have is that they give up a lot of sacks, but UT hasn't pressured the QB all year, so Taylor will probably have a chance to be comfortable, and when he has been, he's been effective throwing the ball. Seriously, I like betting on Tennessee, as a review of the previous musings will bear out, but this is a bad matchup for them.

Really having a hard time figuring out what to do with Navy/Missouri. Navy is getting 6/6.5, and I would be inclined to go with them in most cases, but I think Mizzou is a bad matchup for them with their passing game. Going to sit that one out.

I'll be back with New Year's Day bowls here before too long. Sorry for the tardiness in these.