Merry Christmas musings

We'll move on to the next few days....Merry Christmas by the way!

Tomorrow

Marshall +3 v Ohio: Looking at this game, I see a bit of a stalemate. The offenses are pretty similar, but Ohio has a statistically better defense. I think you might be able to chalk that up to conference differences, because although it's not a great league, CUSA is certainly a step up from the MAC. Ohio had a nice year, but I'm really missing the reasons why so many people assume that they will walk all over Marshall. On ESPN last night, I noticed that 90% of the public(via their bowl challenge) is on Ohio in this game. This is no MAC juggernaut we're talking about here. Ohio had problems with high tempo offenses just like everyone else in their league would. Marshall isn't necessarily what I would call a high octane offense, but they have some good players, namely their RB Darius Marshall, and their QB Anderson is a pretty decent thrower as well, especially in the past few games. If I have the ability to go against a mediocre public team, I'm going to do it, espcially when the dog is from a stronger conference. Ohio also does not have much of a bowl pedigree. Lots of people making unsound assumptions in Ohio's favor in my opinion here.

Pitt -1 v North Carolina: I'm a big believer in situational advantages, especially in bowls, and you can make a case that Pitt is stuck behind the 8 ball in that regard here. They were a whisker away from playing in the BCS, and now they have to play an also-ran ACC team on the day after Christmas. To say they're disappointed with their bowl assignment would be an understatment. Take it up with the Big East I guess. Anyway, that motivation disadvantage appears to be tied up in this line, because on paper, Pitt is the much more well rounded team. I've been saying for several weeks that I thought they were among the best offense/defense mixes in the country. North Carolina has also been very good on defense, so good in fact that I considered taking the points with them, but the spread is now down to 2. truly, if Pitt shows up and plays even close to their normal game, they have a 67/33 chance of winning this game. UNC is going to have problems maintaining any drives against this Pitt defense, as they did against almost everyone they played this year. They certainly are capable of a big play on offense and are a threat to bring back an INT for a score, but Pitt is probably a better bet to do that considering TJ Yates's issues with INTs this year and Bill Stull's relative care with the ball. Pitt is also capable of big plays themselves. I just think Pitt is the better team, despite the motivational disadvantage. Both defenses might have advantages in this one, but Pitt's is minimal(UNC had issues with good pass attacks this year)while UNC's is profound.

USC -7 v Boston College: Statistically, this isn't as big of a mismatch as you might think , but in my opinion, a lot of intangibles favor USC in this one. Matt barkley has been a problem for USC this year, mostly in cases where he was pressured into throwing INTs. BC, however, ranks 99th in the country in sacks. They're strength on defense has been stopping the run, but teams with good rushing attacks(Va tech, Clemson) have shredded them. USc can still run it, despite their issues on offense. Also, BC has struggled like crazy to score on the road. Terrible defenses like Notre Dame and Maryland have held them under 20 points in recent weeks, and I think the same will be true with USC here. Frank Spaziani walks into his first bowl game against Pete Carroll..not a good matchup based on Pete's recent bowl success. If BC is going to compete in this game, QB Dave Shinskie will have to be a net positive for them. There is no evidence that he can be that in this environment. BC is kind of like a poor man's UCLA. Spread is about the same as that game, and I expect a similar result. Somewhere in the 28-7 range. I'll be rooting for BC, of course. If i'm wrong here, it won't bother me in the slightest. USC remain a bunch of thug assholes, even after their humbling season. F Pete Carroll.

I'll have some additional thoughts hopefullt tomorrow on some additional upcoming games. One preview though....if you can get UCLA -4 against Temple, go ahead and jump on it now.

others...I'm going to take the points with Kentucky since I get more than a score now.(7.5) SEC vs ACC mostly, and I think Kentucky is much better coached and has a secondary that matches up well with the young QB.

Also going with Georgia on Monday. Don't like laying points here, but there's no way a sad sack team like A&M sacks up and beats a decent SEC team. Georgia has taken some lumps this year, but they haven't been as bad as it seems. It's under 7 now, but so I'll go with the Dawgs.