12/30 Bowl Musings

Surprisingly, we've been doing ok on the bowls thus far.(6-2). Even UCLA covered yesterday and I threw a few bucks on the Badgers last night and that worked out as well. I'm going to try to get something down on paper on the rest of the bowl games, just for accounting purposes, so forgive me for the minutia.

Back to that UCLA game. Having watched a decent portion of that game(another example of the power gambling has toward TV ratings), I came away thinking that UCLA is perhaps the worst team that I've ever cashed a bet on. Their running back Chane Moline has to be the slowest running back in the game today. His "moves" reminded me of this guy. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vMA22xJEcQ. Their QB Kevin Prince, is perhaps as bad as Kevin Craft, the walking defensive TD himself, and I never thought I'd say that about any QB past the age of 13. He's a dizzying combination of al the things you don't want in a QB: Poor accuracy, noodle arm, slow, unaware of pressure, etc. Their defense gave up 3 TD's to what has to be one of the worst offenses that has appeared on national TV in a decade, with the possible exception of OHIO U a couple days ago. (108 total yards). Yet they covered.

Also, speaking of the Champs Sports Bowl last night, Miami broke the record for worst uniforms I have ever seen..a record that has been shattered 7 times previously this year. the guys that had their white socks pulled up absolutely looked like they were wearing ballet outfits. Mike and I discussed this, and we determined that if there was such a thing as a female football league, their uniforms would have looked like the ones Miami wore last night. No wonder Wisconsin pummelled them for 3 hours.

Idaho -1 v Bowling Green: This game has been lined with BG a small favorite for the past 2 weeks, and I grabbed it at +2 over the weekend, but it's settled in now with the Vandals as a small favorite. We basically have 2 middle of the pack teams from weak conferences matching up here in a battle of terrrible defenses. BG can't stop the run to save their lives, and Idaho is absolutely helpless in all phases. I'm always nervous betting on a team that I know going in has almost no chance of stopping the opponent, but the same can be said about BG's potential ability to stop Idaho's attack. Idaho is 3rd in the country in yards per play and also 3rd in yards per pass attempt. BG is 93rd. Idaho's offense is actually very balanced, as they have made plays down the field in the passing game as well as in the run game. their run game features 3 running backs who have had success this year, and believe it or not, they have an OT that is going to get drafted early this year(Mike Iupati). BG, conversely is ranked 110th against the run, and they certainly don't have any defensive lineman that can match up with Iupati. On the other side of the ball, I'll be very surprised if BG experiences much resistance from the Idaho D, but BG is more of a dink and dunk type of offense, so there exists more of a chance that penalties or turnovers might hurt them. Also, this game is in Boise, so they have all the disadvantages of travelling, while Idaho will be playing in their home state in front of their fans(however many they have). Public is also mostly on BG. At the end of the day, I think there's value in taking the better offense in a game in which the defenses will only be serving as window dressing.

Arizona +3 v Nebraska: You always have to avoid putting too much stock in what a team did in it's last game. In most cases, you'll find teams overvalued when they blow someone out in their previous game or win impressively over a solid opponent. In this case, Nebraska didn't even win it's game, but looked so good defensively against Texas that you'd think nobody would have chance to score against them at this juncture. Of course, you'd have to forget that Nebraska's offense has been putrid for most of the year and barely gained 100 yards themselves in that fabled Big 12 title game. If you take away Nebraska's 3 games against Sun belt opponents in the nonconference, Nebraska is averaging 270.5 yards per game for the season, havng been outgained overall. There is no doubt that their defense is good, and I am just as mesmerized as the next guy by Ndamakong Suh, but their offense is going to have just as tough a time scoring on Arizona, maybe moreso, than Arizona will have scoring on them. Looking at the numbers, Arizona will have the advantage against Nebraska's run game and their pass game, and they have been able to put pressure on teams, ranking 12th in the country in sacks.On the other side of the ball, Arizona is a well balanced offense. They have put up good numbers against good defenses, and have a fighting chance to catch Nebraska on some big plays. I think this comes down to 2 teams that are likely to struggle offensively, but I'll take the much better offense that's getting a FG.

That's it for now..I'll have more later on the big slate coming up over the next 3 days.