I went to bed and it was 24-7 Boise. I wake up, and the dream ends. Hard to believe. The South exhales.
Something has to be said about football uniforms. It's a MFing epidemic. In the NFL, you can't find a game where the two teams are wearing their normal uniforms. The Bears have worn those stupid throwbacks twice(with names on the back and helmets from today). If you can't replicate the uniforms from decades ago(leather helmets, high top cleats, tiny shoulder pads) then just forget it. Is there some sort of clamoring for throwback uni's. (And while I'm at it, the only throwback uni I actually want to see is the Fouts era Air Coryell unis with the royal blue and yellow pants, but there has been a steadfast refusal to wear them, or people just forget about some of the coolest uniforms any team has ever worn. Have the Chargers disowned that those teams or something? If it isn't the throwbacks, it's the alternates, like the Bears or Dolphins orange, or various blacks. Terrible. Don't even get me started on college. We get treated to these abominations known as the Nike pro combat uniforms in what seems to be every week. The newest additions were shown in the Backyard brawl yesterday, with WV wearing rusty garbage cans on their heads. Earlier this year, we were treated to the "exploding brain/shotgun blast to the head" Air Force helmets. Add that to the myriad of programs pandering to the military with these camo tinged uniforms with things like 'Pride" "Committment" and "Honor" substituted for the names on the back. This from programs whose players were probably hurling their girlfriends through plate glass windows or breaking someone's skull at a bar fight the night before. I've really had enough. Here's the exploding brain helmets by the way.
5-3 to start after the Boise debacle, though I'm sure some didn't get Oregon at 18 where I did. That one should have an asterisk, I guess, or we can call it 5-3-1. Whatever. I must also note that in 2 cases, teams that the musings were on made significant comebacks...Auburn and Arizona St(down 17-0 as a 12 point favorite). Can't bitch about that, can I?
9. @Purdue -3 v Indiana: I have some reservations on this one because Purdue has looked so bad at times on offense this year, but how can you pass up a chance to fade Indiana on the road laying only a FG? Answer: You cant. Indiana has been somewhat worthy of your money when they play at home, but as we all know, it's been a different story on the road, as it has been every year under Lynch. Even when they play well and are supposed to cover they don't. As long as Purdue has Rob Henry back there playing QB, they are mildly dangerous, and good enough to compete in the BIg Ten, as their game with a disinterested Michigan State showed last week Defensively, they are actually pretty decent, ranked in the top half of the country in YPP. Indiana can't stop a soul on defense. On a neutral, this would probably go down to the wire, but not at Purdue.
10. Michigan State -1 1/2 @Penn State: Frankly, when I saw that Penn State was being dogged at home here, to a team that hasn't ever really been close to beating them in Happy Valley, I was ready to pull the trigger on the Nits. After looking at this one closely, though, I have to go with Michigan State. Earlier this year, Penn State's major problem was it's offense under the freshman Bolden, but it masked the fact that their defense has niot been very good all year. They are ranked 70th in total defense(ypp), 83rd against the run and 72nd in pass efficiency defense. Michigan State is a pretty good offensive team, and they are going to be ready to play coming off the clunker performance against Purdue and fighting for a share of the conference crown. If the Nits can get MSU into 3rd down spots, they might have a shot because they are strangely good defensively on 3rd down(6th) and MSU is strangely bad offensively on 3rd down(83rd), but overall, MSU has been much better than Penn State on both sides of the ball. teams like Minnesota and Indiana have hung with PSU effectively this year, albeit away from happy valley. I also think that a 12 noon kickoff reduces the home field edge a bit.
11. @Utah -8 1/2 v BYU: Despite Utah's tough stretch lately, I still think they are a solid squad. Historically, they seem to get the better of the Holy War matchups..when they are better, they blow out BYU, when BYU is better, they give them a good game. This year, as well know, BYU has not been itself. They've come back lately to get themselves bowl eligible, but when you have a 4 game stretch against a bunch of collective circle jerks (Wyoming, Colorado St, UNLV and New Mexico) and 3 of them are at home, it's no wonder you strung together a couple wins. Now they go back on the road against real competition, and that has not been a pretty picture for BYU, having lost to Utah State soundly among non-competitive games with AF, Florida St and TCU. They can't throw the ball at all, and Utah can stop the run. I think it will be more of the same for BYU.
12. @Cal -7 v Washington: I can't believe how favorite heavy I am this week...almost every game is a square bet, too, but this seems to be the case on Thanksgiving weekend. Home Cal laying only 7 to a shitty team like Washington? Wow. I realize that Brock Mansion is about the worst QB to suit up for a BCS team in decades, but even he can lead a drive or 3 against this terrible Washington defense, especially when he has Shane Vereen to hand the ball off to. Defensively, cal will put the clamps on the wildly overrated Jake Locker, and bounce back from that terrible performance they had against Stanford last week.
13 @Oklahoma St -2 1/2 v Oklahoma: At least that's the spread on Bet US. Oklahoma has lost 2 games previously to Missouri and Texas A&M on the road, and I would submit that this will be their toughest test of the 3. Oklahoma, contrary to popular belief is not that good on either side of the ball statistically. They are 61st in total offense, 102nd in rushing pards per carry. They are 68th against the run defensively. Oklahoma St, on the other hand is better than Oklahoma on both sides of the ball. They are explosive as well, able to score from anywhere. They had a tough go defensively when Nebraska came in there, but other than that, they have been pretty good defeensively by their standards. Oklahoma will have to play extremely well to win this game. they've owned the pokes recently, but I don't think they match up well this year.
Others. I like BC getting 3 at Syracuse. neither team will be able to do much offensively, but BC is a borderline elite defense, and has the better playmakers on offense. I'll take the 3 there. Syracuse has trouble winning tough games in which they are favored......I lean to Ohio St laying 16.5 at home to michigan. OSU should be able to name the score offensively because as with every offense, they are a terrible matchup for michigan's defense, but Tressel has a penchant for conservative play that does not translate to covering big spreads, especially when Michigan is capable of scoring like they are. That was very close to a musing.....Also like Cincinnati to beat UCONN at UCONN. The Huskies have had all kinds of trouble stopping spread attacks over the years, and Cincy looks like they are back to competence with the return of Zack Collaros. Cincy also stops the run(ranked 7th) so UCONN will have a hard time doing what they do. You can pass on the Bearcats, but UCONN sucks at that.....I think the Cats are in for a long day in Madison, but 24 is a bit much to lay for a musing. Since Bielema is such as asshole, and an admittedly dumb one at that since he readily admits he is too mind-numbingly stupid to deviate at all from the 2 point conversion "card",the chance for a 35 point win in there. This is especially true with Evan Watkins barking the signals instead of Dan Persa. That's it. Sorry for the lateness....
Saturday, November 27, 2010
Thursday, November 25, 2010
Week 13 Musings (Friday)
7-4-1 last week gets the overall record to 67-79-6. So if I go 12-0 this week, (though I'll probably have more than that) which I of course expect, we can get back to even minus the juice, which would mean someone following these picks would only be down 15 units. That's if I go 12-0. Sounds great! Happy Thanksgiving by the way!!
This weekend looks like a fantastic weekend for games. The fact that the Big Ten has extended their season an additional week makes this probably the best overall card of the year. Michigan/Ohio St, previously the biggest game on any day it's played, is a total afterthought this week other than the drama surrounding whether DickRod will be able to keep his job. In my opinion, if Michigan can just get a competent defensive mind to corredinate for them, they aren't that far from being back in the mix for the Big Ten, so I can see the point of view for supporters of DR, because you cannot argue with the explosiveness of that offense. However, at the end of the day, there's a guy out there in Palo Alto who coaches a program in a way that makes old school Wolverines drool. Harbaugh is such a dead center perfect fit for Michigan that if he showed even a modicum of interest, I would lop off DR's head in a public ceremony if it helped my chances at getting Harbaugh. Anyway, in addition to that game, you have the Iron Bowl, LSU/Arkansas, all of the top teams playing, including Boise in a tough game with Nevada. It's just a great week. It's been extremely difficult to get a handle on all the games, so I'll probably leave a couple out that I'll look back on and wish I included.
Friday:
1. Ohio -3 1/2 @Kent St: I'm probably 0 for the year on the MAC, and a couple of the losses, if I remember correctly, were as a sresult of backing this sad sack Kent St team. The reason I had liked them this year was because their defense was playing extremely well. For a portion of the year, they were #1 in rush defense(per carry) and #2 in total defense(ypp). This was after playing some pretty decent teams, including Penn St. Even now, they're still ranked 4th in ypc against, but that really doesn't matter. They simply find ways to fuck everything up. Even though nobody can run on them, they still have managed to give up 21 rushing TDs. Offensively, they are terrible. they've had chances to do something notable several times this year and have failed each time. Now Ohio, the polar o[pposite of them, comes in. Ohio is not much statistically, but all they so is win under Solich. They just beat a good temple team(who admittedly is falling apart a bit) and come in on an 8 game conference winning streak. Kent's coach just resigned, and they've completely had the wheels come off, as even their defense has failed them. They've given up 45 to Army and 38 to Western Michigan in the last 2 weeks. I just can't see them hanging with a team that knows how to win.
2. Louisville -3 @Rutgers: it's tough to back a team as a road favorite when they've lost two in a row at home, but in this case, I think Louisville brings a solid effort. They have a shot at a bowl, since they are 5-6...Rutgers has been eliminated from bowl contention after their humiliation at Cincinnati last week. Nice call by the musings there. Thanksfully I didn't say something nice about the Rutgers defense in that blurb because they gave up 69 points and 600+ yards. Here's the basis of the play: Rutgers is ranked 107th in total offense, 117th in rushing offense. Louisville is 29th in total defense and 48th against the run. Rutgers is last in the country in sacks allowed, Louisville is 24th in sacks. Louisville also has the edge in offensive linev defensive line and can run the ball well with Bilal Powell. It just looks to me like the more motivated and overall better Louisville team should be able to take care of business here.
3. @Pitt -3 v West Virginia: If you put this game on a neutral field, I think I would make Pitt a 3-4 point favorite, so it makes sense that I would not have a problem backing them as only a 3 point favorite at home. Although WV is extremely good on defense, they are going to have a devil of a time scoring on Pitt on the road. Geno Smith is having all kinds of problems throwing the ball, and it's become evident that Noel Devine has been hurt pretty much all year. As a result, the explosiveness has completely vanished from the WV offensive attack. Even though WV will put up a good fight when they are on defense, as long at Pitt avoids turnovers, they have enough offensive talent to put up enough points to cover the short number. Oh, and this is one of the few times Wanny will have a distinct coaching edge.
4. @Akron -1 v Buffalo: Just for shits and giggles, I'll throw this one out there, because I think Akron will get their first win of the season here. They are currently 0-11, but have looked ok the last two weeks, losing in OT on the road to Ball State and falling in the last 5 minutes by 5 against a bowl team in Miami(OH). On the other hand, Buffalo, who is ranked 117th in total offense, has lost in consecutive weeks at home to two of the worst team in Division 1, Eastern Michigan and Ball St. Ball St actually dominated the Bulls, winning 20-3, and held them to a total of 144 yards of offense!. Akron is actually ranked in the top half in total defense, so they should have similar success in being able to control the various line plunges and crossbucks that this 6th grade level offense dreams up.
5. Auburn +4 1/2 @Alabama: When I contemplated this game during the course of the season, I thought that would would almost certainly be on Alabama, and I figured that this is where the spread would be, within about a 1/2 point. After looking at this game closely and comtemplating what I've seen from this Alabama team, I'm going the other way. When facing a good offense this year, Bama has struggled..there's no doubt about that. At home, they are a different animal, but I can't get the visions of Jordan Jefferson and Stephen Garcia having extremely good games against this defense out of my brain. Yes, Jordan Jefferson had very good success against this defense, and Stephen garcia was just about perfect. You would have to think that Cam Newton will be able to have some pretty good success in this game, regardless of where it's being played. Also, Bama cannot pressure the Qb. They are 89th in the country in sacks. If you are going to have success against a high powered offense, you have to impose your will be applying pressure. They haven't been able to do it against worst offenses than this. Also, as we all know, this Auburn offense is the top rushing offense in the country. bama has been hurt on the ground this year by lesser running attacks. Everyone talks about Auburn's defnse being lacking, but they are ranked 38th in yards per play...not bad. They struggle against the pass, but McElroy has been struggling in recent weeks, and Bama has not defined an identity for themselves offensively. Even if they decide to run, which is probably their best bet, Auburn is 22nd against the run, and Bama hasn't had a 100 yard rusher since they ran over Tennessee in October. I just think that geting 4 1/2 is the way to go in a game that I lean slightly to Auburn outright.
6. @Arizona St -12 v UCLA: As has been made clear recently, I like Arizona State's team this year. they've run into a lot of bad breaks and lost some close games. They'll have to win this one and beat Arizona on the road to make a bowl game, and that's too bad because they are better than probably 25 teams that will go bowling this year. Anyway, they have the same record as UCLA, but UCLA is 4-6 for good reason. They just suck ass. 111th in total offense, 120th in pass offense, 103rd in rush defense, 107th in 3rd down conversions against. If they had played a real Texas team and if Case Kennum and his backup haddn't gotten hurt, they'd be 2-8 and a laughingstiock nationally. ASU is competent in all the phases opposite the ones I listed for UCLA. They're 39th in total offense, 29th in total defense...they are a solid squad. This one should be over by halftime unless something screwy happens, or these teams play nothing like they've played all year. I dare say that this is one of my favorite games of the year.
7. @Oregon -18 v Arizona: This game is all over the board as far as a spread, but I just got it at 18 on Bet US. Oregon is coming off a terrible performance at Cal. It's ok, they're allowed one bad one. I seriously doubt it will happen again, and I don't think this Arizona defense will be much more than a wet nap in resistence. Arizona is looked at as a solid squad, but some careful observation will show that they really haven't been one. They beat iowa at home early, but so has 3 other teams, including Northwestern, and they needed several fluky plays to do it. The lost at home to Oregon St when the Beavers were lost. They should have lost to road Cal in Tucson. They gave up 400 yards of offense to UCLA. Stanford put up 500 yards on them, and they were noncompetitive in that one. They lost at home to USC. So ehat does that leave, as far as positives? Not much. Oregon is due to explode again, and I think they will. If Arizona plans on scoring 27 or so, maybe they'll cover...then again, maybe they won't because I think Oregon is going to want to make a statement. generally, I don't like laying points like this, but it's prudent here. I've been saying that I thought Oregon would drop one somewhere, but it won't be this week. I guess the Civil War then.
8. Boise -13 1/2 @Nevada: Boise is going to blow them out. Nevada won't hang with them. Nice team, but it's all Boise, all the time. Blood, Guts, Gore, Victory. By 28. Boom goes the dynamite.
This weekend looks like a fantastic weekend for games. The fact that the Big Ten has extended their season an additional week makes this probably the best overall card of the year. Michigan/Ohio St, previously the biggest game on any day it's played, is a total afterthought this week other than the drama surrounding whether DickRod will be able to keep his job. In my opinion, if Michigan can just get a competent defensive mind to corredinate for them, they aren't that far from being back in the mix for the Big Ten, so I can see the point of view for supporters of DR, because you cannot argue with the explosiveness of that offense. However, at the end of the day, there's a guy out there in Palo Alto who coaches a program in a way that makes old school Wolverines drool. Harbaugh is such a dead center perfect fit for Michigan that if he showed even a modicum of interest, I would lop off DR's head in a public ceremony if it helped my chances at getting Harbaugh. Anyway, in addition to that game, you have the Iron Bowl, LSU/Arkansas, all of the top teams playing, including Boise in a tough game with Nevada. It's just a great week. It's been extremely difficult to get a handle on all the games, so I'll probably leave a couple out that I'll look back on and wish I included.
Friday:
1. Ohio -3 1/2 @Kent St: I'm probably 0 for the year on the MAC, and a couple of the losses, if I remember correctly, were as a sresult of backing this sad sack Kent St team. The reason I had liked them this year was because their defense was playing extremely well. For a portion of the year, they were #1 in rush defense(per carry) and #2 in total defense(ypp). This was after playing some pretty decent teams, including Penn St. Even now, they're still ranked 4th in ypc against, but that really doesn't matter. They simply find ways to fuck everything up. Even though nobody can run on them, they still have managed to give up 21 rushing TDs. Offensively, they are terrible. they've had chances to do something notable several times this year and have failed each time. Now Ohio, the polar o[pposite of them, comes in. Ohio is not much statistically, but all they so is win under Solich. They just beat a good temple team(who admittedly is falling apart a bit) and come in on an 8 game conference winning streak. Kent's coach just resigned, and they've completely had the wheels come off, as even their defense has failed them. They've given up 45 to Army and 38 to Western Michigan in the last 2 weeks. I just can't see them hanging with a team that knows how to win.
2. Louisville -3 @Rutgers: it's tough to back a team as a road favorite when they've lost two in a row at home, but in this case, I think Louisville brings a solid effort. They have a shot at a bowl, since they are 5-6...Rutgers has been eliminated from bowl contention after their humiliation at Cincinnati last week. Nice call by the musings there. Thanksfully I didn't say something nice about the Rutgers defense in that blurb because they gave up 69 points and 600+ yards. Here's the basis of the play: Rutgers is ranked 107th in total offense, 117th in rushing offense. Louisville is 29th in total defense and 48th against the run. Rutgers is last in the country in sacks allowed, Louisville is 24th in sacks. Louisville also has the edge in offensive linev defensive line and can run the ball well with Bilal Powell. It just looks to me like the more motivated and overall better Louisville team should be able to take care of business here.
3. @Pitt -3 v West Virginia: If you put this game on a neutral field, I think I would make Pitt a 3-4 point favorite, so it makes sense that I would not have a problem backing them as only a 3 point favorite at home. Although WV is extremely good on defense, they are going to have a devil of a time scoring on Pitt on the road. Geno Smith is having all kinds of problems throwing the ball, and it's become evident that Noel Devine has been hurt pretty much all year. As a result, the explosiveness has completely vanished from the WV offensive attack. Even though WV will put up a good fight when they are on defense, as long at Pitt avoids turnovers, they have enough offensive talent to put up enough points to cover the short number. Oh, and this is one of the few times Wanny will have a distinct coaching edge.
4. @Akron -1 v Buffalo: Just for shits and giggles, I'll throw this one out there, because I think Akron will get their first win of the season here. They are currently 0-11, but have looked ok the last two weeks, losing in OT on the road to Ball State and falling in the last 5 minutes by 5 against a bowl team in Miami(OH). On the other hand, Buffalo, who is ranked 117th in total offense, has lost in consecutive weeks at home to two of the worst team in Division 1, Eastern Michigan and Ball St. Ball St actually dominated the Bulls, winning 20-3, and held them to a total of 144 yards of offense!. Akron is actually ranked in the top half in total defense, so they should have similar success in being able to control the various line plunges and crossbucks that this 6th grade level offense dreams up.
5. Auburn +4 1/2 @Alabama: When I contemplated this game during the course of the season, I thought that would would almost certainly be on Alabama, and I figured that this is where the spread would be, within about a 1/2 point. After looking at this game closely and comtemplating what I've seen from this Alabama team, I'm going the other way. When facing a good offense this year, Bama has struggled..there's no doubt about that. At home, they are a different animal, but I can't get the visions of Jordan Jefferson and Stephen Garcia having extremely good games against this defense out of my brain. Yes, Jordan Jefferson had very good success against this defense, and Stephen garcia was just about perfect. You would have to think that Cam Newton will be able to have some pretty good success in this game, regardless of where it's being played. Also, Bama cannot pressure the Qb. They are 89th in the country in sacks. If you are going to have success against a high powered offense, you have to impose your will be applying pressure. They haven't been able to do it against worst offenses than this. Also, as we all know, this Auburn offense is the top rushing offense in the country. bama has been hurt on the ground this year by lesser running attacks. Everyone talks about Auburn's defnse being lacking, but they are ranked 38th in yards per play...not bad. They struggle against the pass, but McElroy has been struggling in recent weeks, and Bama has not defined an identity for themselves offensively. Even if they decide to run, which is probably their best bet, Auburn is 22nd against the run, and Bama hasn't had a 100 yard rusher since they ran over Tennessee in October. I just think that geting 4 1/2 is the way to go in a game that I lean slightly to Auburn outright.
6. @Arizona St -12 v UCLA: As has been made clear recently, I like Arizona State's team this year. they've run into a lot of bad breaks and lost some close games. They'll have to win this one and beat Arizona on the road to make a bowl game, and that's too bad because they are better than probably 25 teams that will go bowling this year. Anyway, they have the same record as UCLA, but UCLA is 4-6 for good reason. They just suck ass. 111th in total offense, 120th in pass offense, 103rd in rush defense, 107th in 3rd down conversions against. If they had played a real Texas team and if Case Kennum and his backup haddn't gotten hurt, they'd be 2-8 and a laughingstiock nationally. ASU is competent in all the phases opposite the ones I listed for UCLA. They're 39th in total offense, 29th in total defense...they are a solid squad. This one should be over by halftime unless something screwy happens, or these teams play nothing like they've played all year. I dare say that this is one of my favorite games of the year.
7. @Oregon -18 v Arizona: This game is all over the board as far as a spread, but I just got it at 18 on Bet US. Oregon is coming off a terrible performance at Cal. It's ok, they're allowed one bad one. I seriously doubt it will happen again, and I don't think this Arizona defense will be much more than a wet nap in resistence. Arizona is looked at as a solid squad, but some careful observation will show that they really haven't been one. They beat iowa at home early, but so has 3 other teams, including Northwestern, and they needed several fluky plays to do it. The lost at home to Oregon St when the Beavers were lost. They should have lost to road Cal in Tucson. They gave up 400 yards of offense to UCLA. Stanford put up 500 yards on them, and they were noncompetitive in that one. They lost at home to USC. So ehat does that leave, as far as positives? Not much. Oregon is due to explode again, and I think they will. If Arizona plans on scoring 27 or so, maybe they'll cover...then again, maybe they won't because I think Oregon is going to want to make a statement. generally, I don't like laying points like this, but it's prudent here. I've been saying that I thought Oregon would drop one somewhere, but it won't be this week. I guess the Civil War then.
8. Boise -13 1/2 @Nevada: Boise is going to blow them out. Nevada won't hang with them. Nice team, but it's all Boise, all the time. Blood, Guts, Gore, Victory. By 28. Boom goes the dynamite.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Week 12 Musings
First of all, sorry for all the typos. The gold continues. 4-7-1 last week, I'm woefully under .500, about 15,000 leagues under the sea with no chance in hell of ever reaching the surface, because if I was ever going to do that, I'd have to actually pick a game correctly. Some real zingers this past week too. Texas Tech. Florida, otherwise known as the most clueless offensive team in the country. Hey Urban! I think your team sucks! Did you here that? Your team smells of manure, and your players enjoy having lewd relations with one another! This is after they effeminately prance around the field ultimately making fools of themselves and you. I dare you to look knowlingly at the sky and cause a lightning bolt to strike me down as I type this!
I also gave you Colorado St, who was completely obliterated 7 real time minutes after their kickoff with BYU. It's a wonder I didn't give you the Redskins and the team under for the Eagles on Monday night as well. Or the under on the number of times the Illinois basketball team got beat to a loose ball or contested rebound in their game agaisnt Texas. Or the under on trillions of dollars the government might spend. Or the under on number of times Obama uses the term "working families". Or the over on Less Miles's ACT score. I have to double check to make sure I didn't tell all of you to take a short position on gold, or a long position on cat feces.
This song pretty much sums things up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgSPaXgAdzE
Or this one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KynpC1e9I9E
1. Northwestern +8 v Illinois(Wrigley): I realize that Dan Persa is injured and out for the year(too bad...he's a hell of a player), but I don't care if they throw Rusty Lisch or Gary Hogeboom, or Shitbag McFuckface out there at quarterback, we've all seen this story played out with Ron Zook before. Whenever Illinois is having a non-spectacular year, and appear headed to some sort of second tier bowl, they collapse in ways that you forgot a team could collapse. At least 3 times Illinois has headed north to play Northwestern needing a win to get bowl eligible, and each time they've failed miserably. The Zooker is going to have to get these kids to bounce back from yet another epic failure, as they somehow managed to lose to Minnesota at home last week, gaining fewer than 400 yards on what might be the most offensive and putrid defense in the country. Now they face NW, who will probably find a way to win. Gameday is coming to Wrigley so the game will get some exposure. Even more reason to fail miserbably for the Cryin Ill lie and whine.
2. Penn State -10 v Indiana(Washington): Indiana whored out one of their home games for a big paycheck to play the Nittany Lions at the Redskins home stadium, and it's probably a good thing too, because I'm guessing there aren't a whole lot of Hoosier fans who want to associate themselves with the football program after they gave up 80+ last week in Madison. How many Indiana "football fans" do you are planning to make that trip? Not even friends and family. Maybe Bill Lynch's wife, but that's about it. Wisconsin scored on every single drive last week. They had a total of 13 drives. They scored 11 TDs and kicked a pair of field goals. Sometimes you can make a case that a team might be embarrased and will show up the following week with a good performance, but how in the world can you bounce back after taking such a brutal beating? Penn State played a lot closer to Ohio State than the score indicated last week, they played well offensively except for a couple of turnovers, which Indiana doesn't have the capacity to force. Also, IU's passing offense is greatly exaggerated, as they've pretty much resorted to dinks and dunks, and Penn State has the defensive talent to make them look foolish. The Hoosiers won't put up any defensive resistence either. Ha! I guess I was pretty much the master of the obvious just now!
3 Troy +22 @South Carolina: I really have a hard time seeing how South Carolina gets up for this game, or how they can even justify playing their top players(especially Marcus Lattimore) in it. They are in a horrendous sandwich spot, coming off their most important win in school history and with hated rival Clemson and then the SEC title game on deck. Troy is also coming off an embarrassing home loss to FIU last week, so South Carolina will likely get an inspired effort. Keep in mid that they have already played at Oklahoma St and lost only by 3 earlier this year, so they are capable of hanging with a good team on the road. This is one of the worst situational traps I've seen in a long time.
4. Pitt -3 @South Florida: USF is off 3 consecutive wins, including one against all odds helped by a kickoff return and a hail mary pass last week at Louisville. Give them credit, they won the games, but they are certainly not a good team. They've actually been a much better road team than home team...their last 2 home games include an outright loss to Syracuse and a one point squeaker against Rutgers where they failed to cover as an 11 point favorite. Pitt, on the other hand is coming off a tough loss at UCONN amd has had a couple additional days to prepare, not that Wanny will take advantage. It's true though that Pitt is a superior team to South Florida in just about every facet, and they need to win this week if they have any plans to win the Big East and get blown out in whatever bowl they qualify for. Pitt is due for a good game, and unless Skip Holtz is a super genius, USF in is line to shit the bed a bit.
5. Northern Illinois -14 1/2 @Ball State: NIU has really proven themselves as quite a juggernaut in the MAC this year. If you take away their opener agaisnt Iowa State in which starting QB Chandler Harnish was held out in favor of some jitterbug pipsqueak who couldn't throw the ball 8 yards, they only blemish is a 5 point loss at Illinois. Other than that, it's been death and destruction for just about everyone else on their schedule. They've already clinched the MAC west so there is some concern about motivation, but they are so much better than Ball State that I don't think it will matter. Ball St has looked like a legit D-1 team only a couple times this year, and never at home. Perrenial league doormat Eastern Michigan beat them there, winless Akron took them to OT and they lost to Liberty. NIU should roll...I'm thinking 47-17.
6. Ole Miss +16 @ LSU: I've liked LSU lately, especially as a dog, but they are back in their uncomfortable favorite role. LSu is ranked 86th in the country in yards per play, Ole Miss is ranked 33rd. You'd look at the results from these two teams last week and think that LSU(a 51-0 winner) should plow through the Rebs(a 52-14 loser), but look closer. LSU gained a grand total of 278 yards against the vaunted Lou-Mon defense, good for 4.5 per play, which is amemic. When they aren't motivated, they are awful on offense, and they are much better at night than in the afternoon, though that angle is a bit overblown. Ole Miss got embarrassed by Tennessee and Derek Dooley of all people last week, but that was mostly a result of 5 terrible turnovers. This is a rivalry game, and Ole Miss will be motivated to redeem themselves. LSU might sleepwalk a bit, similar to how they did when Tennessee should have beat them back in October.
7. Stanford -6 1/2 @ Cal: Yes, I'm going against home Cal here....probably not a good idea. That would especially appear to be the case when you review what Cal did last week. Had they gotten any semblance of a competent QB performance last week they certainly would have beaten Oregon, as their defense was magnificent against the previously unstoppable Ducks. Having watched parts of that game, although credit must be given to Cal, Oregon just seemed to be out of synch. I think they will be hard pressed to repeat that kind of perormance against another solid attack this week.Offensively, Cal is in big trouble because Brock mansion simply cannot throw the ball, and harbaugh knows it. You can;t hang with elite teams two weeks in a row with a grade school level quarterback. He was 10-28 for 68 yards against a mediocre Oregon pass defense for goodness sakes! Stanford is coming off a clunker of their own, having never really gotten going at Tempe agaisnt the Sun Devils last week. They are also coming off a embarrassing home loss to Cal in the Big Game last year, so Harbaugh will be bent on revenge. Like I said, fading home Cal is risky, but it looks like the right side to me.
8. Virginia Tech -2 @Miami(Fl): Stephen Morris is the new QB for Miami and he's getting a lot of pub because of the big plays the Canes have seen since Jacory Harris started having his female problems. But the truth is he's only completing 53% of his passes and has 3 INTs to go along with his 3TDs. Miami's D has been solid, but this VT offense has been very efficient both in the running game and the passing game. When it comes down to it, I just don't think Miami has the chops to pull off a win against a good VT team here.
9 @Iowa +3 v Ohio St: Iowa must be played as a home dog. They are much too good a team to be sdogged at home by anyone, let alone a Buckeye squad that almost certainly will have issues moving the ball on them. Iowa actually has what appears to be the more explosive offense, they are at home, and the defenses are close if not even. Ohio St under Pryor has had major difficulties on the road, and I think they run into them again. Statistically these teams are very similar and Iowa is coming off two flat performances in a row...they are due to play a crisp game, and if they do, i don;t think OSU is good enough to overcome that.
10. Army +8 1/2 v Notre Dame: ND got lucky last week against Utah..don't let that 28-3 score fool you. They gained a grand total of 256 yards. I figured they would have difficulty moving the ball on Utah with Tommy Rees and without Rudolph, Riddick and Allen, and I was right. I just didn;t see the turnovers and special teams things happening. Army is a solid squad this year, they are already bowl eligible. They give their best effort against a bunch of backups who have already been torched by navy. Army is the poor man's Navy, so rather than win by 18, I think they'll merely provide good competition for ND, and that's all we need.
11. Rutgers +13 1/2 @Cincinnati: Although I'm not a big fan of Rutgers, with the way things are going for Cincinnati, I'm not sure how you fail to take these points here. Zack Collaros should be back, but he was back last week when WV pounded them, and they are 3-5 with him at the helm anyway. Defensively, Rutgers is good enough to put up a fight, and they have enough offense to score some points on Cincy's piss poor pass defense. Way too many points to lay with a team that has potentially given up.
12. @Texas A&M +2 1/2 v Nebraska: Hopefully this line will move to where you can afford it at 3, but I'm not sure that will happen, so I'll pull the trigger at this line. I'm going to continue to ride A&M and the Taneyhill train. It's true that Nebraska is ranked #1 in the country in pass efficiency defense, but they have played virtually no teams that can throw it effectively. This will be their top test in that regard. A&M's defense has been very good this year, though their inability to stop the run at Baylor last week concerns me. However, they have stopped more potent offenses than Nebraska, holding Okie St and Arkansas both to season lows in yards gained. If they can bottle up Taylor Martinez like Texas did, they have a great shot of winning the game because I think they'll get theirs on offense, and they have stopped the straight ahead running game very well this year.
Others: Michigan can;t stop anyone from running the ball. Wisconsin (-4) comes in woth the best line in the country...it should not be pretty in that phase of the game. Not playing it because it looks so obvious, but DRob ia having all kinds of problems staying healthy.....I hate betting on Clemson(-14), but they are definitely doing things right on D. They've given up 7,13,16,13 and 16 in their last 5 games, and Wake's offense is as pedestrian as the rest of 'em. They also are feeble on defense, so Clemson might finally be able to move it on someone....Gonna go with Colorado at home against Kansas St, since they are getting points at home and Kansas St can't sop the run to save their lives(last in FBS). Colorado likes to run it with Rodney Stewart, so they'll just pound away at home. I like fading Oklahoma on the road, so I probably will go with Baylor, and Navy will probably play down to their competition, as they always do. Even though Arky St is sad, I'll still take the points.
That's it, take care!!!!
I also gave you Colorado St, who was completely obliterated 7 real time minutes after their kickoff with BYU. It's a wonder I didn't give you the Redskins and the team under for the Eagles on Monday night as well. Or the under on the number of times the Illinois basketball team got beat to a loose ball or contested rebound in their game agaisnt Texas. Or the under on trillions of dollars the government might spend. Or the under on number of times Obama uses the term "working families". Or the over on Less Miles's ACT score. I have to double check to make sure I didn't tell all of you to take a short position on gold, or a long position on cat feces.
This song pretty much sums things up.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgSPaXgAdzE
Or this one.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KynpC1e9I9E
1. Northwestern +8 v Illinois(Wrigley): I realize that Dan Persa is injured and out for the year(too bad...he's a hell of a player), but I don't care if they throw Rusty Lisch or Gary Hogeboom, or Shitbag McFuckface out there at quarterback, we've all seen this story played out with Ron Zook before. Whenever Illinois is having a non-spectacular year, and appear headed to some sort of second tier bowl, they collapse in ways that you forgot a team could collapse. At least 3 times Illinois has headed north to play Northwestern needing a win to get bowl eligible, and each time they've failed miserably. The Zooker is going to have to get these kids to bounce back from yet another epic failure, as they somehow managed to lose to Minnesota at home last week, gaining fewer than 400 yards on what might be the most offensive and putrid defense in the country. Now they face NW, who will probably find a way to win. Gameday is coming to Wrigley so the game will get some exposure. Even more reason to fail miserbably for the Cryin Ill lie and whine.
2. Penn State -10 v Indiana(Washington): Indiana whored out one of their home games for a big paycheck to play the Nittany Lions at the Redskins home stadium, and it's probably a good thing too, because I'm guessing there aren't a whole lot of Hoosier fans who want to associate themselves with the football program after they gave up 80+ last week in Madison. How many Indiana "football fans" do you are planning to make that trip? Not even friends and family. Maybe Bill Lynch's wife, but that's about it. Wisconsin scored on every single drive last week. They had a total of 13 drives. They scored 11 TDs and kicked a pair of field goals. Sometimes you can make a case that a team might be embarrased and will show up the following week with a good performance, but how in the world can you bounce back after taking such a brutal beating? Penn State played a lot closer to Ohio State than the score indicated last week, they played well offensively except for a couple of turnovers, which Indiana doesn't have the capacity to force. Also, IU's passing offense is greatly exaggerated, as they've pretty much resorted to dinks and dunks, and Penn State has the defensive talent to make them look foolish. The Hoosiers won't put up any defensive resistence either. Ha! I guess I was pretty much the master of the obvious just now!
3 Troy +22 @South Carolina: I really have a hard time seeing how South Carolina gets up for this game, or how they can even justify playing their top players(especially Marcus Lattimore) in it. They are in a horrendous sandwich spot, coming off their most important win in school history and with hated rival Clemson and then the SEC title game on deck. Troy is also coming off an embarrassing home loss to FIU last week, so South Carolina will likely get an inspired effort. Keep in mid that they have already played at Oklahoma St and lost only by 3 earlier this year, so they are capable of hanging with a good team on the road. This is one of the worst situational traps I've seen in a long time.
4. Pitt -3 @South Florida: USF is off 3 consecutive wins, including one against all odds helped by a kickoff return and a hail mary pass last week at Louisville. Give them credit, they won the games, but they are certainly not a good team. They've actually been a much better road team than home team...their last 2 home games include an outright loss to Syracuse and a one point squeaker against Rutgers where they failed to cover as an 11 point favorite. Pitt, on the other hand is coming off a tough loss at UCONN amd has had a couple additional days to prepare, not that Wanny will take advantage. It's true though that Pitt is a superior team to South Florida in just about every facet, and they need to win this week if they have any plans to win the Big East and get blown out in whatever bowl they qualify for. Pitt is due for a good game, and unless Skip Holtz is a super genius, USF in is line to shit the bed a bit.
5. Northern Illinois -14 1/2 @Ball State: NIU has really proven themselves as quite a juggernaut in the MAC this year. If you take away their opener agaisnt Iowa State in which starting QB Chandler Harnish was held out in favor of some jitterbug pipsqueak who couldn't throw the ball 8 yards, they only blemish is a 5 point loss at Illinois. Other than that, it's been death and destruction for just about everyone else on their schedule. They've already clinched the MAC west so there is some concern about motivation, but they are so much better than Ball State that I don't think it will matter. Ball St has looked like a legit D-1 team only a couple times this year, and never at home. Perrenial league doormat Eastern Michigan beat them there, winless Akron took them to OT and they lost to Liberty. NIU should roll...I'm thinking 47-17.
6. Ole Miss +16 @ LSU: I've liked LSU lately, especially as a dog, but they are back in their uncomfortable favorite role. LSu is ranked 86th in the country in yards per play, Ole Miss is ranked 33rd. You'd look at the results from these two teams last week and think that LSU(a 51-0 winner) should plow through the Rebs(a 52-14 loser), but look closer. LSU gained a grand total of 278 yards against the vaunted Lou-Mon defense, good for 4.5 per play, which is amemic. When they aren't motivated, they are awful on offense, and they are much better at night than in the afternoon, though that angle is a bit overblown. Ole Miss got embarrassed by Tennessee and Derek Dooley of all people last week, but that was mostly a result of 5 terrible turnovers. This is a rivalry game, and Ole Miss will be motivated to redeem themselves. LSU might sleepwalk a bit, similar to how they did when Tennessee should have beat them back in October.
7. Stanford -6 1/2 @ Cal: Yes, I'm going against home Cal here....probably not a good idea. That would especially appear to be the case when you review what Cal did last week. Had they gotten any semblance of a competent QB performance last week they certainly would have beaten Oregon, as their defense was magnificent against the previously unstoppable Ducks. Having watched parts of that game, although credit must be given to Cal, Oregon just seemed to be out of synch. I think they will be hard pressed to repeat that kind of perormance against another solid attack this week.Offensively, Cal is in big trouble because Brock mansion simply cannot throw the ball, and harbaugh knows it. You can;t hang with elite teams two weeks in a row with a grade school level quarterback. He was 10-28 for 68 yards against a mediocre Oregon pass defense for goodness sakes! Stanford is coming off a clunker of their own, having never really gotten going at Tempe agaisnt the Sun Devils last week. They are also coming off a embarrassing home loss to Cal in the Big Game last year, so Harbaugh will be bent on revenge. Like I said, fading home Cal is risky, but it looks like the right side to me.
8. Virginia Tech -2 @Miami(Fl): Stephen Morris is the new QB for Miami and he's getting a lot of pub because of the big plays the Canes have seen since Jacory Harris started having his female problems. But the truth is he's only completing 53% of his passes and has 3 INTs to go along with his 3TDs. Miami's D has been solid, but this VT offense has been very efficient both in the running game and the passing game. When it comes down to it, I just don't think Miami has the chops to pull off a win against a good VT team here.
9 @Iowa +3 v Ohio St: Iowa must be played as a home dog. They are much too good a team to be sdogged at home by anyone, let alone a Buckeye squad that almost certainly will have issues moving the ball on them. Iowa actually has what appears to be the more explosive offense, they are at home, and the defenses are close if not even. Ohio St under Pryor has had major difficulties on the road, and I think they run into them again. Statistically these teams are very similar and Iowa is coming off two flat performances in a row...they are due to play a crisp game, and if they do, i don;t think OSU is good enough to overcome that.
10. Army +8 1/2 v Notre Dame: ND got lucky last week against Utah..don't let that 28-3 score fool you. They gained a grand total of 256 yards. I figured they would have difficulty moving the ball on Utah with Tommy Rees and without Rudolph, Riddick and Allen, and I was right. I just didn;t see the turnovers and special teams things happening. Army is a solid squad this year, they are already bowl eligible. They give their best effort against a bunch of backups who have already been torched by navy. Army is the poor man's Navy, so rather than win by 18, I think they'll merely provide good competition for ND, and that's all we need.
11. Rutgers +13 1/2 @Cincinnati: Although I'm not a big fan of Rutgers, with the way things are going for Cincinnati, I'm not sure how you fail to take these points here. Zack Collaros should be back, but he was back last week when WV pounded them, and they are 3-5 with him at the helm anyway. Defensively, Rutgers is good enough to put up a fight, and they have enough offense to score some points on Cincy's piss poor pass defense. Way too many points to lay with a team that has potentially given up.
12. @Texas A&M +2 1/2 v Nebraska: Hopefully this line will move to where you can afford it at 3, but I'm not sure that will happen, so I'll pull the trigger at this line. I'm going to continue to ride A&M and the Taneyhill train. It's true that Nebraska is ranked #1 in the country in pass efficiency defense, but they have played virtually no teams that can throw it effectively. This will be their top test in that regard. A&M's defense has been very good this year, though their inability to stop the run at Baylor last week concerns me. However, they have stopped more potent offenses than Nebraska, holding Okie St and Arkansas both to season lows in yards gained. If they can bottle up Taylor Martinez like Texas did, they have a great shot of winning the game because I think they'll get theirs on offense, and they have stopped the straight ahead running game very well this year.
Others: Michigan can;t stop anyone from running the ball. Wisconsin (-4) comes in woth the best line in the country...it should not be pretty in that phase of the game. Not playing it because it looks so obvious, but DRob ia having all kinds of problems staying healthy.....I hate betting on Clemson(-14), but they are definitely doing things right on D. They've given up 7,13,16,13 and 16 in their last 5 games, and Wake's offense is as pedestrian as the rest of 'em. They also are feeble on defense, so Clemson might finally be able to move it on someone....Gonna go with Colorado at home against Kansas St, since they are getting points at home and Kansas St can't sop the run to save their lives(last in FBS). Colorado likes to run it with Rodney Stewart, so they'll just pound away at home. I like fading Oklahoma on the road, so I probably will go with Baylor, and Navy will probably play down to their competition, as they always do. Even though Arky St is sad, I'll still take the points.
That's it, take care!!!!
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Week 11 Musings
So the musings went 7-5-1 last week. Not bad, but not a very good recipe for success if you are trying to get your yearly record back to .500. It's similar to a boxing match where you take a haymaker, land a couple love taps, then take a couple more haymakers, then land a love tap. Does that work? No. You end up looking this this guy.
Not good. So, the overall record for this year comes now to 56-68-5. So we'll need to go 13-0 this week. Shouldn't be that difficult. I noticed that Oklahoma State is a sizable favorite over Texas this week. Hmmmm...that reminds me of the preseason musings. I think I might have made mention that I thought they were going to struggle this year. Let's take a look, to see how I fared in my prognostications, shall we?
Here's who I liked:
1. Auburn - "...they have a legitimate shot to be undefeated when they tee it up with Alabama in Tuscaloosa in the Iron Bowl..." Ok. Nice start.
2. Boise: That was a given. Not impressive.
3. A&M "...they willshow a lot of improvement on D because they brought in AirForce's former defensive coordinator..." Nice. A&M total defense yards per pay last year: 90th. This year: 9th. Good call.
4. South Carolina, vis a vis their chances in the SEC East. "...Florida will probably experience some growing pains..." Yes. "..Tennessee is a train wreck.." Yes. "...Steven Garcia is no virtuoso back there.." Nailed it.
5. Iowa and Wisconsin: No kidding, but Wisconsin is doing better than people thought.
Overall, not a bad list.
Who I didn't like:
1. Tennessee: Oh yeah, but that was easy to call.
2. LSU: Ugh...Ole Less has pulled yet another rabbit out of his hat. Someone cue the loud buzzer on that one.
3. BYU: Nailed this one. They've turned out even worse than I thought.
4. Oklahoma St: "...Talk about a cupboard being left bare....good Lord. Luckily for them Zac Robinson got hurt for awhile last year so QB Brandon Weeden could get some experience, otherwise, it would be Kendall Hunter and the 21 dwarves as far as returning experience goes. Hopefully, that punk Mike Gundy recruited some athletes." I guess I had never heard of Justin Blackmon. I also compared them to Washington St of all people. it's time to stand up and count Mike Gundy as one of the better coaches out there. I apologize for my poor judgement there.
On to this week. And remember....to quote Martin Short in the famous synchronized swimming "documentary" on SNL in the mid to late 80's..."I'm not that strong a hanicapper".
1. @Louisville -2 v South Florida: Both teams come into this game needing a win to become bowl eligible, but it's certainly more remarkable for Louisville, as many had them pegged for last in the Big East. Louisville has some question marks on offense in this game because they might be missing their QB and standout RB Bilal Powell, but they were missing both of those dudes last week and they handled Syracuse on the road anyway. I think USF will have all kinds of trouble getting anything going offensively against a pretty good Louisville defense, and the Cards have the added motivation of Senior Day and the home crowd. All we'll need is for them to win, and I think they can handle that.
2 Miami -2 1/2 @Georgia Tech: As I've mentioned in some previous entries, Georgia Tech just is not the same team as they were last year, and now they will be missing Josh Nesbitt, who is out for the year after fracturing his arm last week. I had a chance to watch backup Tevian Robinson, and he looked clueless with his decision making. They are also banged up in the backfield, and on the OL, which is not a good thing against this Miami defense who has been extremely good all year this year, and completely shut down this option attack last year in Miami. No word yet on if Jacory Harris plays, but if I'm a 'Canes fan, I actually root for a hangnail for Jacory so he doesn't play, as backup Stephen Morris has been just as good as Harris without the annoyances of the rapid fire INTs followed by lighting fast pouting. GT has had trouble stopping good passing attacks, which Miami has. Bad matchup for the Jackets.
3. @Colorado +2 1/2 v Iowa State: I realize that Colorado just made a coaching change, but in this case, it might have a positive effect. Also, Iowa State is completely foreign to the role of conference road favorite, having been in that role only once in the last 16 conference road games. Colorado, despite all they've botched in recent years, can run it a bit with Rodney Stewart, and they've had some success at home, having knocked off Georgia and rather easily dispatched Hawaii(which I am still trying to figure out.) I think they play with some urgency and get it done this week against a team that will be completely out of their element on the road.
4. Utah -5 @Notre Dame: I usually like to back the dog in games like this, but Notre Dame just doesn't have the players to compete in this game. If they had been injury free this year and not lost the likes of QB Crist, Armando Allen, Rudolph, etc,you could possibly make a case for them, but not now, especially when we are almost guaranted that their defense will continue to play the "matador" scheme. ND's strength is their offense, but we saw(Navy) how they can get in trouble when they are missing their playmakers, and in that case, even their offense looks bad. Utah, despite having their collective heads lopped off last week at home by TCU, does possess a statistically elite defense. I just don't see how the Irish will be able to keep up in this one, but it's definitely a public play.
5.Texas Tech +15 @Oklahoma: It's dangerous to fade the Sooners in Norman, but I remain convinced that this team is not very good. Statistically, these two teams are similar, and you can make several cases that TT is actually superior to Oklahoma on offense, especially when you look at the rushing numbes for the Sooners. TT struggles with turnovers, but if the Red Raiders can avoid getting turnovers, they might have enough power to put a big scare in to the Sooners, and you have to wonder about OU's psyche since they are now playing without the carrot in front of them.
6. Wyoming -4 1/2 @ UNLV: Haaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh???? Wyoming lost last week to New Mexico!!! How in the world can I back them as a road favorite this week??? Because they appear to have a running game scratched together, and they are playing UNLV, who is probably the biggest collection of sad sacks college football has seen in awhile. They have not warmed up to their new coach, and rumors abound that they have given up for the season. Their results certainly indicate that. Since their rivalry game with Nevada, they have not been competitive, having lost 49-10, 43-10, 48-6 and 55-7 in their last 4. They are absolutely laying down for people. Any kind of rational number must be taken when the opponent is UNLV at this point.
7. @Colorado St +6 1/2 v BYU: Even when BYU was good they always struggled in Fort Collins. Now, CSU has a better offense, a comparable defense, and is getting 6 1/2.. BYu has not been competitive at all on the road, and Colorado State is getting better as their true freshman QB finally figures out how to throw the ball further than 7 yards downfield.
8. Texas A&M -3 @Baylor: Baylor really let me down last week when they traveled to Boone Pickens's house to take on the OSU Cowboys and got blown out. They have all kinds of problems on defense, and as you might have heard, I am on board with the decision to throw Ryan Taneyhill out there to get the offense rolling. A&M's defense is for real, so I'll give them a much better shot at stopping that Baylor attack, while I expect limited response from the Baylor D against Mike Sherman's game plan.
9. @Florida St: -6 v Clemson: Clemson can't do a thing on offense as long as Andre Ellington is out of commision, especially this week because the FSU defense is plenty pertubed about the grabby grab performance they showed against UNC last week. One of the Stoops brothers is their DC, so I'm sure he was screaming and drooling and spitting when he talked all week at practice. You'll see an inspired defense, and as long as the offense can throw out a decent performance, FSU should be in good shape. Keep in mind that Clemson is only averaging 333 yards per game, and had only 260 last week. FSU's defense in Tallahassee is a hell of a lot more menacing than Nc State's is on the road, I can tell you that. There is some chatter that Christian Ponder might be a game time decision, but the Noles need this game, so I'm sure he's going to play.
10. @Florida -6 1/2 v South Carolina: The battle for the SEC East's spot in the SEC Championship game is on the line here, and Florida is in position again. South Carolina has not looked good lately. I can give them a pass for the game last week against Arkansas, since the game this week was for all the marbles regardless of what the Cocks did in that game. Even Spurrier looked like he mailed it in. I'm not making this determination based at all on that game, because I think South Carolina is going to play a spirited game. But even so, things just have a way of falling apart for this program. That's been evident in Spurrier's entire tenure. I will be rooting hard for them in this game, because I really don't want to see Florida in the SEC title game again, but I just don't see it. RB Marcus Lattimore is extremely important to their success offensively, and he is very banged up and won't be 100%. That means that Stephen garcia will have to conjure up a second herculean performance this year, and the poor kid just doesn't have it in him. The over under on Florida defensive scores should probably be set at 1.5, as they are a ball hawking bunch, and Urban undoubtedly wants a couple, so it shall be so. Like I said..I'll be rooting for the Cocks, but I see this being a 28-13 type game.
11. Mississippi St +13 @Alabama: I think it's going to be hard for Alabama to produce enough points to cover 13 against Mississippi St (+13) even though the game is in Tuscaloosa. Miss St is ranked 24th in the country in yards per play, so I would see a yardage total of about 350 for Bama in this one, and it's hard to cover double digits in that case unless you get a bunch of turnovers. It can happen, because Miss St isn't very good on offense, but I have faith in Dan Mullen to cover this. Kudos to the Mulldogs, by the way...their road slate in the SEC is @LSU, @Florida and @Bamaplus the Egg Bowl, and they'll probably be in a good bowl game. They also were a dropped pass away from beating Auburn in that early Thursday nighter too. Not sure about Alabama's psyche coming into this game either.
12 @Arizona St +5 1/2 v Stanford: Arizona St is a completely snakebitten team. They've lost by 1 at Wisconsin because of a blocked extra point, then lost by one last week at USC because USC took back a blocked extra point for 2. They also lost at Oregon State on a last second FG, and outgained Oregon by 200+ yards in another loss. Their other loss was by 50 or something, but that was to Home Cal, so no criticism there. Now they get Stanford at home, and this is the #1 public play of the week. It's more of a hunch for me, because this line has not budged..it seems like Vegas is begging for money on ASU. Also, I think Stanford is due for a clunker, as they've looked absolutely fabulous the last couple weeks.
Others: I think there's a good chance that Purdue might be getting 14 when all is said and done, so I have a hunch that the Boilers will hang with Michigan at home. Their offense has been brutal, but they get to go against that Michigan D, and like I said, it's hard to cover a 2 TD spread when you can't stop anyone on defense....vandy has been an embarrassment this year, and they have dropped the ball twice in a row in their preferred role of road conference dog, but I'll have faith in them one more time as they travel to kentucly catching 14.5....Maryland is a sad sack program, but they find themselves still in the hunt in whatever division they play in in the ACC. I guess the other teams in their division, whoever the hell they are, haven't asserted themselves, so Maryland can win the damn thing if they win out. They'll probably fuck that up this week at Virginia(+2.5).... Nobody knows if Cam Newton is going to play this week, because it appears that the heat is getting very hot in the kitchen at Auburn regarding whether or not Newton's father sold him to Auburn. If I'm Auburn, if he gets declared ineligible, the whole season gts forfeited anyway, so I play him. However, there is some whispering that the NCAA is telling Auburn they have the goods, and the death penalty comes in play if they don't sit the kid immediately. Anyway, if Newton plays, Georgia is going to get a beat down, and the spread was at 7 last I saw. If not, the gme isn't betable, unless they favor Georgia or something stupid like that....Anyone who gets in the way of this Oregon runaway locomotive (like TCU) is a moron, so I won't make it a musing, but on principle, Home Cal is getting 20 points!!!! It's got to be taken, just to see if the earth will reverse it's rotation or something. Could be an atomic collision, since Home Cal is not human. It's like King Kong or something. Home Cal must be killed to be defeated....... I generally like Oklahoma St to beat Texas like a red headed stepchild this week, but Matt Millen is calling that game, so anything that can possibly completely ruin my viewing pleasure will happen in that game. I'd like to see Texas get crushed and embarrassed at home, so they'll probably sack up and win. Seriously, Millen equals death for me. I've had 5 or 6 musings on the games he's called, and I'm 0 for the year in those games. Last week, he called the Northwestern/Penn State game. No musing on that game last week, but I threw a couple bucks on NW +7, and I almost always root for the Cats. I wasn't watching during the first quarter, and was delighted to see the cats up 21-0. Then I started watching, and the Millen effect took hold. 35 unanswered points later, I lose the bet and realize the mistake I made. That guy is cancer. He's AIDS. He's whatever you hate the most in human form. I hope he comes across a band of homosexual bikers on the way to Austin and gets....ahh forget it.
Hope you guys have a good week. take care!!!!!!!!
Not good. So, the overall record for this year comes now to 56-68-5. So we'll need to go 13-0 this week. Shouldn't be that difficult. I noticed that Oklahoma State is a sizable favorite over Texas this week. Hmmmm...that reminds me of the preseason musings. I think I might have made mention that I thought they were going to struggle this year. Let's take a look, to see how I fared in my prognostications, shall we?
Here's who I liked:
1. Auburn - "...they have a legitimate shot to be undefeated when they tee it up with Alabama in Tuscaloosa in the Iron Bowl..." Ok. Nice start.
2. Boise: That was a given. Not impressive.
3. A&M "...they willshow a lot of improvement on D because they brought in AirForce's former defensive coordinator..." Nice. A&M total defense yards per pay last year: 90th. This year: 9th. Good call.
4. South Carolina, vis a vis their chances in the SEC East. "...Florida will probably experience some growing pains..." Yes. "..Tennessee is a train wreck.." Yes. "...Steven Garcia is no virtuoso back there.." Nailed it.
5. Iowa and Wisconsin: No kidding, but Wisconsin is doing better than people thought.
Overall, not a bad list.
Who I didn't like:
1. Tennessee: Oh yeah, but that was easy to call.
2. LSU: Ugh...Ole Less has pulled yet another rabbit out of his hat. Someone cue the loud buzzer on that one.
3. BYU: Nailed this one. They've turned out even worse than I thought.
4. Oklahoma St: "...Talk about a cupboard being left bare....good Lord. Luckily for them Zac Robinson got hurt for awhile last year so QB Brandon Weeden could get some experience, otherwise, it would be Kendall Hunter and the 21 dwarves as far as returning experience goes. Hopefully, that punk Mike Gundy recruited some athletes." I guess I had never heard of Justin Blackmon. I also compared them to Washington St of all people. it's time to stand up and count Mike Gundy as one of the better coaches out there. I apologize for my poor judgement there.
On to this week. And remember....to quote Martin Short in the famous synchronized swimming "documentary" on SNL in the mid to late 80's..."I'm not that strong a hanicapper".
1. @Louisville -2 v South Florida: Both teams come into this game needing a win to become bowl eligible, but it's certainly more remarkable for Louisville, as many had them pegged for last in the Big East. Louisville has some question marks on offense in this game because they might be missing their QB and standout RB Bilal Powell, but they were missing both of those dudes last week and they handled Syracuse on the road anyway. I think USF will have all kinds of trouble getting anything going offensively against a pretty good Louisville defense, and the Cards have the added motivation of Senior Day and the home crowd. All we'll need is for them to win, and I think they can handle that.
2 Miami -2 1/2 @Georgia Tech: As I've mentioned in some previous entries, Georgia Tech just is not the same team as they were last year, and now they will be missing Josh Nesbitt, who is out for the year after fracturing his arm last week. I had a chance to watch backup Tevian Robinson, and he looked clueless with his decision making. They are also banged up in the backfield, and on the OL, which is not a good thing against this Miami defense who has been extremely good all year this year, and completely shut down this option attack last year in Miami. No word yet on if Jacory Harris plays, but if I'm a 'Canes fan, I actually root for a hangnail for Jacory so he doesn't play, as backup Stephen Morris has been just as good as Harris without the annoyances of the rapid fire INTs followed by lighting fast pouting. GT has had trouble stopping good passing attacks, which Miami has. Bad matchup for the Jackets.
3. @Colorado +2 1/2 v Iowa State: I realize that Colorado just made a coaching change, but in this case, it might have a positive effect. Also, Iowa State is completely foreign to the role of conference road favorite, having been in that role only once in the last 16 conference road games. Colorado, despite all they've botched in recent years, can run it a bit with Rodney Stewart, and they've had some success at home, having knocked off Georgia and rather easily dispatched Hawaii(which I am still trying to figure out.) I think they play with some urgency and get it done this week against a team that will be completely out of their element on the road.
4. Utah -5 @Notre Dame: I usually like to back the dog in games like this, but Notre Dame just doesn't have the players to compete in this game. If they had been injury free this year and not lost the likes of QB Crist, Armando Allen, Rudolph, etc,you could possibly make a case for them, but not now, especially when we are almost guaranted that their defense will continue to play the "matador" scheme. ND's strength is their offense, but we saw(Navy) how they can get in trouble when they are missing their playmakers, and in that case, even their offense looks bad. Utah, despite having their collective heads lopped off last week at home by TCU, does possess a statistically elite defense. I just don't see how the Irish will be able to keep up in this one, but it's definitely a public play.
5.Texas Tech +15 @Oklahoma: It's dangerous to fade the Sooners in Norman, but I remain convinced that this team is not very good. Statistically, these two teams are similar, and you can make several cases that TT is actually superior to Oklahoma on offense, especially when you look at the rushing numbes for the Sooners. TT struggles with turnovers, but if the Red Raiders can avoid getting turnovers, they might have enough power to put a big scare in to the Sooners, and you have to wonder about OU's psyche since they are now playing without the carrot in front of them.
6. Wyoming -4 1/2 @ UNLV: Haaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh???? Wyoming lost last week to New Mexico!!! How in the world can I back them as a road favorite this week??? Because they appear to have a running game scratched together, and they are playing UNLV, who is probably the biggest collection of sad sacks college football has seen in awhile. They have not warmed up to their new coach, and rumors abound that they have given up for the season. Their results certainly indicate that. Since their rivalry game with Nevada, they have not been competitive, having lost 49-10, 43-10, 48-6 and 55-7 in their last 4. They are absolutely laying down for people. Any kind of rational number must be taken when the opponent is UNLV at this point.
7. @Colorado St +6 1/2 v BYU: Even when BYU was good they always struggled in Fort Collins. Now, CSU has a better offense, a comparable defense, and is getting 6 1/2.. BYu has not been competitive at all on the road, and Colorado State is getting better as their true freshman QB finally figures out how to throw the ball further than 7 yards downfield.
8. Texas A&M -3 @Baylor: Baylor really let me down last week when they traveled to Boone Pickens's house to take on the OSU Cowboys and got blown out. They have all kinds of problems on defense, and as you might have heard, I am on board with the decision to throw Ryan Taneyhill out there to get the offense rolling. A&M's defense is for real, so I'll give them a much better shot at stopping that Baylor attack, while I expect limited response from the Baylor D against Mike Sherman's game plan.
9. @Florida St: -6 v Clemson: Clemson can't do a thing on offense as long as Andre Ellington is out of commision, especially this week because the FSU defense is plenty pertubed about the grabby grab performance they showed against UNC last week. One of the Stoops brothers is their DC, so I'm sure he was screaming and drooling and spitting when he talked all week at practice. You'll see an inspired defense, and as long as the offense can throw out a decent performance, FSU should be in good shape. Keep in mind that Clemson is only averaging 333 yards per game, and had only 260 last week. FSU's defense in Tallahassee is a hell of a lot more menacing than Nc State's is on the road, I can tell you that. There is some chatter that Christian Ponder might be a game time decision, but the Noles need this game, so I'm sure he's going to play.
10. @Florida -6 1/2 v South Carolina: The battle for the SEC East's spot in the SEC Championship game is on the line here, and Florida is in position again. South Carolina has not looked good lately. I can give them a pass for the game last week against Arkansas, since the game this week was for all the marbles regardless of what the Cocks did in that game. Even Spurrier looked like he mailed it in. I'm not making this determination based at all on that game, because I think South Carolina is going to play a spirited game. But even so, things just have a way of falling apart for this program. That's been evident in Spurrier's entire tenure. I will be rooting hard for them in this game, because I really don't want to see Florida in the SEC title game again, but I just don't see it. RB Marcus Lattimore is extremely important to their success offensively, and he is very banged up and won't be 100%. That means that Stephen garcia will have to conjure up a second herculean performance this year, and the poor kid just doesn't have it in him. The over under on Florida defensive scores should probably be set at 1.5, as they are a ball hawking bunch, and Urban undoubtedly wants a couple, so it shall be so. Like I said..I'll be rooting for the Cocks, but I see this being a 28-13 type game.
11. Mississippi St +13 @Alabama: I think it's going to be hard for Alabama to produce enough points to cover 13 against Mississippi St (+13) even though the game is in Tuscaloosa. Miss St is ranked 24th in the country in yards per play, so I would see a yardage total of about 350 for Bama in this one, and it's hard to cover double digits in that case unless you get a bunch of turnovers. It can happen, because Miss St isn't very good on offense, but I have faith in Dan Mullen to cover this. Kudos to the Mulldogs, by the way...their road slate in the SEC is @LSU, @Florida and @Bamaplus the Egg Bowl, and they'll probably be in a good bowl game. They also were a dropped pass away from beating Auburn in that early Thursday nighter too. Not sure about Alabama's psyche coming into this game either.
12 @Arizona St +5 1/2 v Stanford: Arizona St is a completely snakebitten team. They've lost by 1 at Wisconsin because of a blocked extra point, then lost by one last week at USC because USC took back a blocked extra point for 2. They also lost at Oregon State on a last second FG, and outgained Oregon by 200+ yards in another loss. Their other loss was by 50 or something, but that was to Home Cal, so no criticism there. Now they get Stanford at home, and this is the #1 public play of the week. It's more of a hunch for me, because this line has not budged..it seems like Vegas is begging for money on ASU. Also, I think Stanford is due for a clunker, as they've looked absolutely fabulous the last couple weeks.
Others: I think there's a good chance that Purdue might be getting 14 when all is said and done, so I have a hunch that the Boilers will hang with Michigan at home. Their offense has been brutal, but they get to go against that Michigan D, and like I said, it's hard to cover a 2 TD spread when you can't stop anyone on defense....vandy has been an embarrassment this year, and they have dropped the ball twice in a row in their preferred role of road conference dog, but I'll have faith in them one more time as they travel to kentucly catching 14.5....Maryland is a sad sack program, but they find themselves still in the hunt in whatever division they play in in the ACC. I guess the other teams in their division, whoever the hell they are, haven't asserted themselves, so Maryland can win the damn thing if they win out. They'll probably fuck that up this week at Virginia(+2.5).... Nobody knows if Cam Newton is going to play this week, because it appears that the heat is getting very hot in the kitchen at Auburn regarding whether or not Newton's father sold him to Auburn. If I'm Auburn, if he gets declared ineligible, the whole season gts forfeited anyway, so I play him. However, there is some whispering that the NCAA is telling Auburn they have the goods, and the death penalty comes in play if they don't sit the kid immediately. Anyway, if Newton plays, Georgia is going to get a beat down, and the spread was at 7 last I saw. If not, the gme isn't betable, unless they favor Georgia or something stupid like that....Anyone who gets in the way of this Oregon runaway locomotive (like TCU) is a moron, so I won't make it a musing, but on principle, Home Cal is getting 20 points!!!! It's got to be taken, just to see if the earth will reverse it's rotation or something. Could be an atomic collision, since Home Cal is not human. It's like King Kong or something. Home Cal must be killed to be defeated....... I generally like Oklahoma St to beat Texas like a red headed stepchild this week, but Matt Millen is calling that game, so anything that can possibly completely ruin my viewing pleasure will happen in that game. I'd like to see Texas get crushed and embarrassed at home, so they'll probably sack up and win. Seriously, Millen equals death for me. I've had 5 or 6 musings on the games he's called, and I'm 0 for the year in those games. Last week, he called the Northwestern/Penn State game. No musing on that game last week, but I threw a couple bucks on NW +7, and I almost always root for the Cats. I wasn't watching during the first quarter, and was delighted to see the cats up 21-0. Then I started watching, and the Millen effect took hold. 35 unanswered points later, I lose the bet and realize the mistake I made. That guy is cancer. He's AIDS. He's whatever you hate the most in human form. I hope he comes across a band of homosexual bikers on the way to Austin and gets....ahh forget it.
Hope you guys have a good week. take care!!!!!!!!
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Week 10 Musings
Mark Dantonio, you might want to have one of your worthless homosexual players start your car this week. I was made a fool of last week by your chicken shit team, and I don't take kindly to being made a fool of. Dickrod....do you think it might be time to find a single player who can tackle someone, or perhaps it might be time to hire a defensive coordinator who breathes through his nose occasionally? Houston Dale Nutt....you could have confused Cam Newton by making him wear his unfamiliar white uniform, but you couldn't even figure that out, and Auburn rearranged your team's collective face. (And yeah, that was the only reason.) Lane Kiffin, you gave me yet another reason as to why you sit atop my list of people I'd most like to punch in the face. Look at the bright side, though..at least your team of 5 star Adonis athletes were able to hold Oregon under 600 total yards(599) on your home field. You can be proud of that.
The musings went 4-6-1 last week, which brings the overall record to 8-79-3 for the year. At least it feels that way. I am officially punch drunk. The actual record is 49-63-4...almost no chance to battle back to .500. I'm hoping everyone got my subliminals last week. Believe it or not, I was fortunate to cover a game last week. I told you all that I would relay any information about a fortunate break for the musings if it ever happened, and for the first time in weeks, it did. Marshall should not have covered against UTEP last week. With 7 minutes left in the game, UTEP trailed 7-6, then scored a TD. However, Marshall blocked the PAT and ran it back for 2 points, which made the score 12-9 when it should have been 13-7. Marshall then took the next possession and scored a TD, taking the lead 16-12 and eventually covering the 3. So there. It happened. Once. I'll continue to report any additional lucky breaks.
Once thing I failed to mention last week was the remarkable events of the World Series. Not so much that the Rangers and Giants franchises made it, but that a team managed by Ron Washington AND a team generally managed by Brian Sabean actually both made the world series. I don't think people realize how unlikely this was. First, have any of you ever seen Ron Washington? First of all, he's an admitted coke fiend. He looks like he would be just as likely to be found sprawled on the sidewalk in front of a Harvey liquor store as he would be in the Rangers clubhouse...actually much more so. It would literally take me all night to list all of the bonehead moves that Brian Sabean has made over the years, but suffice it to say he makes Jim Hendry look like an astute follower of sabermetrics. He doesn't have the sense God gave to an ant. That those two made it to the World Series makes you understand that sometimes the Good Lord works in mysterious ways. He proved that when Less Miles got a head coaching job.
On to this weeks laughable attempt. As always, I swear I really like these games!!!
1. Maryland +8 @Miami(FL): Back to the well against Miami, for what seems like about the 10th time this season. Of course it's a very dangerous play because Maryland sucks ass on offense and they are coming off a game of a lifetime against Wake(62-14) and Miami just lost to Vagina of all people, so you couldn't possibly get less value with this spread. However, consider this: Maryland is 6-2, and they are ranked 7th in the country in yards allowed per play. They will be facing a backup QB who failed to complete even 41% of his passes in relief duty of the concussed and fetal position prone Jacory Harris and threw in 3 picks for good measure. They also will be without starting RB Damien berry, who has been getting ALL the carries in this offense lately, and Maryland is ranked 18th in the country against the run. Miami at this point has lost all hope of reaching any of their goals, and they aren't well coached to begin with. Another half filled house awaits them at noon in that stadium...you might get a lethargic performance even for them. Like I said, Maryland is 6-2, and smells a much better bowl game than they thought they had a right to dream about coming in to the season. I think there's a good chance Maryland wins this outright. I'll be surprised if Miami plays inspired at all.
2. Louisville +7 @Syracuse: I would buy this up from the current 6.5...the line moved from 6 earlier today, so it might be 7 when the public gets a hold of it tomorrow. Syracuse has been a nice story, and I've profited on them quite a bit this year. they have been a very good road dog, but they, and teams like them are very ill-suited for this role. Offensively, they are doing things with smoke and mirrors. Statistically, these two teams are basically identical, but it looks like Louisville RB Bilal Powell, their best player, won't be playing. They have a previous 1k rusher ready to step in (Victor Anderson) so the line move will be sufficient to cover for the value. This game can be capped with both teams managing about 275-300 yards of total offense. It's very hard for a team to cover a sizable spread with those conditions, and as I mentioned Syracuse is very ill suited for the favorites role. How many times have you seen a team relish the dog role and cover based on good breaks and nice bounces, then come home and lay an egg as a decent sized favorite? Happens a lot.
3. @Army +7 v Air Force: Buy it to 7, or just play it at 6.5 if you don't want to. I think this might finally be the year Army cracks the code and beats one of these other service academies. The Knights at 5-3, and although they haven't beaten anyone of note, and have played nowhere near the schedule of Air Force, I think they can win on Saturday. First, the situation works greatly in their favor. AF is coming off a tough loss in their last marquee test of the year at home with Utah. Now they have to travel all the way to West Point to play Army, who has been paying in wait for them for 3 weeks, since they are off a bye and a warmup with VMI the past two weeks. AF continues to be woeful against the run, which is all Army does, and Army has hung in there in all facets on defense. I just think this is a terrible spot for AF, and there's no doubt that this is Army's Superbowl to date for the year. (Until they play Navy).
4. NC State +4 @Clemson: I just got it at 4 on Bet Us..hopefully it'll stay there. I just couldn't stay away from this one, as much as I wanted to. Frankly, I'm very surprised that this line has stayed where it is even after Clemson RB Andre Ellington was ruled out of this game. Ellington basically IS the Clemson offense. In recent weeks, if he doesn't run for long TD's either at RB or on a return, Clemson doesn't score. To wit: He didn't do anything last week at BC. They lost. The week before that, Clemson scored 3 Tds. He scored all 3. 2 on long runs, and 1 on a 10 yard reception after his punt return set up Clemson in the red zone. The week before that he returned a kickoff for a score and a punt to the red zone to set up another score (which he scored) against Maryland. Two weeks before that, he scored all 3 of their TDs against Miami, including a 71 yarder. Also, Clemson is now 4-4, and my guy Dabo is hearing it from the unsatisfied Clemson faithful. If they struggle, expect to hear the boos, and NC State, though not great, has the balance on both sides of the ball to give them trouble. They're 6-2 by the way.
5. Baylor +8 1/2 @Oklahoma St: These two teams are completely indistinguishable from each other on paper. Oklahoma is slightly better on defense, but Baylor is a bit more explosive on offense. I also lean to Art Briles in the coaching matchup here. Baylor in almost every game has put up 600 yards or better, and we are all still waiting for Oklahoma St to be exposed. They haven't been great at home, having snuck past A&M and Troy while losing to Nebraska. Baylor is in dangerous territory since they just won their game of the decade against Texas, but I think they stay hungry and put up a good fight against the Pokes. With teams so similar and with similar rewards to play for 8.5 is a lot of points, even if the score gets up there.
6. Akron +13 1/2 @Ball State: Do I really recommend betting on a team that is 0-9 and coming off back to back shutouts? If they are getting two TDs from Ball State, yep. Akron is still looking for it's first W of the season, which if history is any guide, will almost certainly come. What better candidate than Ball State, a team that has already lost at home to Liberty and the putrid Eastern Michigan Eagles? You're also getting 13.5 here so even if you get mostly pasted, you will still have a great shot at a cover. An outright is definitely possible, unless BSU all of a sudden sacks up and takes care of business. (Snicker)
7 Nebraska -17 @Iowa St: I think Nebraska is going to completely destroy Iowa St in this one. The Huskers still remember Iowa St coming into their house and beating them 9-7 in what had to be one of the worst performances of the decade for the Nebraska offense. Iowa St has given up 50+ to Oklahoma and 68 to Utah in recent weeks, so Nebraska will likely see a lot of success with Taylor Martinez and company. Also, Iowa St has very little chance of doing much with the Nebraska defense, which has completely shut down most of the passing games they ave come across. I can see a 45-7 game here, very easily.
8. LSU + 6 1/2 v Alabama: Can LSU win this game? I have a hard time thinking they can, but that's my bias against Less Miles talking. Alabama has been struggling to find an identity on offense lately, and I think they will have a hard time getting points on the board in this game. LSU matches up much better against Alabama's offense than they do against an offense like Auburn's. They can stop the straight ahead running game of Ingram and Richardson, and Patrick Peterson can lock up Julio Jones. The question is whether LSU can score on Bama, and they've gotten lucky before. I just think that almost a full TD is too much here for the Tigers, and CBS's midday game usually results in a close score.
9. @Texas A&M +3 v Oklahoma: I've always wondered why Mike Sherman never got another pro job after he left the Packers. The guy was the head coach and I believe GM or a successful NFL team that was in the playoffs just about every year, and for all intents and purposes, the Packers were considered a well run organization at the time. Now he coaches A&M, and I think his offense has really taken off now that he has found the right Qb for his offense. Ryan Taneyhill was installed as the starter after some nice looking work in relief of turnover machine Jerod Johnson vs Kansas. Since then, A&M is putting up monster numbers. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has played twice on the road, and was outgained by it's foes both times. For the season, OU is ranked 50th in ypp on defense, and is 98th in rush offense. They've looked lethargic in their road games, and I think if Taneyhill plays aggressively, they can win this game.
10. Texas -3 1/2 @Kansas St: If you look at Texas during this slide, they have outgained all of their opponents, including Baylor last week and Oklahoma a couple weeks before. Texas matches up very well with Kansas St, since the Wildcats pretty much are relegated to running the ball. Texas stops the run for the most part, and I think K State is a bit out of their element. Texas wil probably be happy to be away from Austin as well.
11. Oregon St -5 @UCLA: The death march continues for this UCLA team . Oregon St, on the other hand, hits it's stride at this time of year every year. Their defensive stats are skewed a bit, as they've gotten some parts back from injury. UCLA simply can't score or throw the bal at all. Oregon St will get theirs since the line and offense appear to be settling in. I like the Beavers big in this one.
12. Arizona St +5 1/2 @ USC: This line looks like a misprint, but i like the situation for ASU. USC just had their SuperBowl, and they now enter their thrird consecutive home game. What, at this point, is there to get excited about for anyone in that program? That you can go 9-4?? Arizona St is certainly not an exciting opponent, but they have been a pretty good team this year with success on both sides of the ball. Take away their blowout loss to schitzophrenic Cal,(Aside......speaking of Cal, I don't think I've ever seen a team have such a bipolar personality based on whether they are at home or on the road. If anyone remembers the Tom and Jerry episode where Jerry mistakenly drinks the mothballs/acid combination that turns him into a seething growling beast who rips Tom's arms off, then immediately wears off and turns him back into a meek, tiny little mouse, that's home and road Cal. So losing to home Cal appears to just be a fact of life at this point) and they've lost by a FG at Oregon State, a single point at Wisconsin, and beat Washington handily when Washington was healthy. Also keep in mind that they are ranked 37th in yards per play on offense, while USC is 100th on defense, and you can see why the spread sits where it does. The public is 77% on USC, but I don't think they are taking into consideration the mammoth situational advantage enjoyed by ASU here.
Others: Don't look now, but the Illini can reach bowl eligibility with a win at Michigan, which would be their thrird in a row over Dickrod. hell, they still have a game with minnesota too, so they might get themselves to a Jan 1 bowl if they can find ways to beat Northwestern at Wrigley and Fresno at Fresno. Who knows. This will be an emotional hedge for me, as getting a third win in a row and further embarrassment for Dickrod is probably too much to ask. Michigan is laying only 3 at home.....I'll be fading the home run hire Turner Gill until he figures out a way to get within double digits of anyone. Colorado is laying 8 against them in lawrence this week. Can you believe that? Dan Hawkins, who will almost certainly be finally fired as soon as the final gun goes off, is bette than a TD favorite on the road against these guys.....Utah is getting 5 at home. I know that TCU is an 800 pound gorilla with a chainsaw for a penis, but you have to take Utah in that role....Wake looked so bad last week that there is no way I can resist laying 3 with BC at Wake. Would never recommend it as a musing, though. as BC should not be favored on the road....Is this the week WAZZOU gets a win? If not, they might cover because they are getting 14 against "puny Jerry" CaL, who will be without QB Kevin Riley.
That's it for this week. Keep on fading, bros!!!!
The musings went 4-6-1 last week, which brings the overall record to 8-79-3 for the year. At least it feels that way. I am officially punch drunk. The actual record is 49-63-4...almost no chance to battle back to .500. I'm hoping everyone got my subliminals last week. Believe it or not, I was fortunate to cover a game last week. I told you all that I would relay any information about a fortunate break for the musings if it ever happened, and for the first time in weeks, it did. Marshall should not have covered against UTEP last week. With 7 minutes left in the game, UTEP trailed 7-6, then scored a TD. However, Marshall blocked the PAT and ran it back for 2 points, which made the score 12-9 when it should have been 13-7. Marshall then took the next possession and scored a TD, taking the lead 16-12 and eventually covering the 3. So there. It happened. Once. I'll continue to report any additional lucky breaks.
Once thing I failed to mention last week was the remarkable events of the World Series. Not so much that the Rangers and Giants franchises made it, but that a team managed by Ron Washington AND a team generally managed by Brian Sabean actually both made the world series. I don't think people realize how unlikely this was. First, have any of you ever seen Ron Washington? First of all, he's an admitted coke fiend. He looks like he would be just as likely to be found sprawled on the sidewalk in front of a Harvey liquor store as he would be in the Rangers clubhouse...actually much more so. It would literally take me all night to list all of the bonehead moves that Brian Sabean has made over the years, but suffice it to say he makes Jim Hendry look like an astute follower of sabermetrics. He doesn't have the sense God gave to an ant. That those two made it to the World Series makes you understand that sometimes the Good Lord works in mysterious ways. He proved that when Less Miles got a head coaching job.
On to this weeks laughable attempt. As always, I swear I really like these games!!!
1. Maryland +8 @Miami(FL): Back to the well against Miami, for what seems like about the 10th time this season. Of course it's a very dangerous play because Maryland sucks ass on offense and they are coming off a game of a lifetime against Wake(62-14) and Miami just lost to Vagina of all people, so you couldn't possibly get less value with this spread. However, consider this: Maryland is 6-2, and they are ranked 7th in the country in yards allowed per play. They will be facing a backup QB who failed to complete even 41% of his passes in relief duty of the concussed and fetal position prone Jacory Harris and threw in 3 picks for good measure. They also will be without starting RB Damien berry, who has been getting ALL the carries in this offense lately, and Maryland is ranked 18th in the country against the run. Miami at this point has lost all hope of reaching any of their goals, and they aren't well coached to begin with. Another half filled house awaits them at noon in that stadium...you might get a lethargic performance even for them. Like I said, Maryland is 6-2, and smells a much better bowl game than they thought they had a right to dream about coming in to the season. I think there's a good chance Maryland wins this outright. I'll be surprised if Miami plays inspired at all.
2. Louisville +7 @Syracuse: I would buy this up from the current 6.5...the line moved from 6 earlier today, so it might be 7 when the public gets a hold of it tomorrow. Syracuse has been a nice story, and I've profited on them quite a bit this year. they have been a very good road dog, but they, and teams like them are very ill-suited for this role. Offensively, they are doing things with smoke and mirrors. Statistically, these two teams are basically identical, but it looks like Louisville RB Bilal Powell, their best player, won't be playing. They have a previous 1k rusher ready to step in (Victor Anderson) so the line move will be sufficient to cover for the value. This game can be capped with both teams managing about 275-300 yards of total offense. It's very hard for a team to cover a sizable spread with those conditions, and as I mentioned Syracuse is very ill suited for the favorites role. How many times have you seen a team relish the dog role and cover based on good breaks and nice bounces, then come home and lay an egg as a decent sized favorite? Happens a lot.
3. @Army +7 v Air Force: Buy it to 7, or just play it at 6.5 if you don't want to. I think this might finally be the year Army cracks the code and beats one of these other service academies. The Knights at 5-3, and although they haven't beaten anyone of note, and have played nowhere near the schedule of Air Force, I think they can win on Saturday. First, the situation works greatly in their favor. AF is coming off a tough loss in their last marquee test of the year at home with Utah. Now they have to travel all the way to West Point to play Army, who has been paying in wait for them for 3 weeks, since they are off a bye and a warmup with VMI the past two weeks. AF continues to be woeful against the run, which is all Army does, and Army has hung in there in all facets on defense. I just think this is a terrible spot for AF, and there's no doubt that this is Army's Superbowl to date for the year. (Until they play Navy).
4. NC State +4 @Clemson: I just got it at 4 on Bet Us..hopefully it'll stay there. I just couldn't stay away from this one, as much as I wanted to. Frankly, I'm very surprised that this line has stayed where it is even after Clemson RB Andre Ellington was ruled out of this game. Ellington basically IS the Clemson offense. In recent weeks, if he doesn't run for long TD's either at RB or on a return, Clemson doesn't score. To wit: He didn't do anything last week at BC. They lost. The week before that, Clemson scored 3 Tds. He scored all 3. 2 on long runs, and 1 on a 10 yard reception after his punt return set up Clemson in the red zone. The week before that he returned a kickoff for a score and a punt to the red zone to set up another score (which he scored) against Maryland. Two weeks before that, he scored all 3 of their TDs against Miami, including a 71 yarder. Also, Clemson is now 4-4, and my guy Dabo is hearing it from the unsatisfied Clemson faithful. If they struggle, expect to hear the boos, and NC State, though not great, has the balance on both sides of the ball to give them trouble. They're 6-2 by the way.
5. Baylor +8 1/2 @Oklahoma St: These two teams are completely indistinguishable from each other on paper. Oklahoma is slightly better on defense, but Baylor is a bit more explosive on offense. I also lean to Art Briles in the coaching matchup here. Baylor in almost every game has put up 600 yards or better, and we are all still waiting for Oklahoma St to be exposed. They haven't been great at home, having snuck past A&M and Troy while losing to Nebraska. Baylor is in dangerous territory since they just won their game of the decade against Texas, but I think they stay hungry and put up a good fight against the Pokes. With teams so similar and with similar rewards to play for 8.5 is a lot of points, even if the score gets up there.
6. Akron +13 1/2 @Ball State: Do I really recommend betting on a team that is 0-9 and coming off back to back shutouts? If they are getting two TDs from Ball State, yep. Akron is still looking for it's first W of the season, which if history is any guide, will almost certainly come. What better candidate than Ball State, a team that has already lost at home to Liberty and the putrid Eastern Michigan Eagles? You're also getting 13.5 here so even if you get mostly pasted, you will still have a great shot at a cover. An outright is definitely possible, unless BSU all of a sudden sacks up and takes care of business. (Snicker)
7 Nebraska -17 @Iowa St: I think Nebraska is going to completely destroy Iowa St in this one. The Huskers still remember Iowa St coming into their house and beating them 9-7 in what had to be one of the worst performances of the decade for the Nebraska offense. Iowa St has given up 50+ to Oklahoma and 68 to Utah in recent weeks, so Nebraska will likely see a lot of success with Taylor Martinez and company. Also, Iowa St has very little chance of doing much with the Nebraska defense, which has completely shut down most of the passing games they ave come across. I can see a 45-7 game here, very easily.
8. LSU + 6 1/2 v Alabama: Can LSU win this game? I have a hard time thinking they can, but that's my bias against Less Miles talking. Alabama has been struggling to find an identity on offense lately, and I think they will have a hard time getting points on the board in this game. LSU matches up much better against Alabama's offense than they do against an offense like Auburn's. They can stop the straight ahead running game of Ingram and Richardson, and Patrick Peterson can lock up Julio Jones. The question is whether LSU can score on Bama, and they've gotten lucky before. I just think that almost a full TD is too much here for the Tigers, and CBS's midday game usually results in a close score.
9. @Texas A&M +3 v Oklahoma: I've always wondered why Mike Sherman never got another pro job after he left the Packers. The guy was the head coach and I believe GM or a successful NFL team that was in the playoffs just about every year, and for all intents and purposes, the Packers were considered a well run organization at the time. Now he coaches A&M, and I think his offense has really taken off now that he has found the right Qb for his offense. Ryan Taneyhill was installed as the starter after some nice looking work in relief of turnover machine Jerod Johnson vs Kansas. Since then, A&M is putting up monster numbers. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has played twice on the road, and was outgained by it's foes both times. For the season, OU is ranked 50th in ypp on defense, and is 98th in rush offense. They've looked lethargic in their road games, and I think if Taneyhill plays aggressively, they can win this game.
10. Texas -3 1/2 @Kansas St: If you look at Texas during this slide, they have outgained all of their opponents, including Baylor last week and Oklahoma a couple weeks before. Texas matches up very well with Kansas St, since the Wildcats pretty much are relegated to running the ball. Texas stops the run for the most part, and I think K State is a bit out of their element. Texas wil probably be happy to be away from Austin as well.
11. Oregon St -5 @UCLA: The death march continues for this UCLA team . Oregon St, on the other hand, hits it's stride at this time of year every year. Their defensive stats are skewed a bit, as they've gotten some parts back from injury. UCLA simply can't score or throw the bal at all. Oregon St will get theirs since the line and offense appear to be settling in. I like the Beavers big in this one.
12. Arizona St +5 1/2 @ USC: This line looks like a misprint, but i like the situation for ASU. USC just had their SuperBowl, and they now enter their thrird consecutive home game. What, at this point, is there to get excited about for anyone in that program? That you can go 9-4?? Arizona St is certainly not an exciting opponent, but they have been a pretty good team this year with success on both sides of the ball. Take away their blowout loss to schitzophrenic Cal,(Aside......speaking of Cal, I don't think I've ever seen a team have such a bipolar personality based on whether they are at home or on the road. If anyone remembers the Tom and Jerry episode where Jerry mistakenly drinks the mothballs/acid combination that turns him into a seething growling beast who rips Tom's arms off, then immediately wears off and turns him back into a meek, tiny little mouse, that's home and road Cal. So losing to home Cal appears to just be a fact of life at this point) and they've lost by a FG at Oregon State, a single point at Wisconsin, and beat Washington handily when Washington was healthy. Also keep in mind that they are ranked 37th in yards per play on offense, while USC is 100th on defense, and you can see why the spread sits where it does. The public is 77% on USC, but I don't think they are taking into consideration the mammoth situational advantage enjoyed by ASU here.
Others: Don't look now, but the Illini can reach bowl eligibility with a win at Michigan, which would be their thrird in a row over Dickrod. hell, they still have a game with minnesota too, so they might get themselves to a Jan 1 bowl if they can find ways to beat Northwestern at Wrigley and Fresno at Fresno. Who knows. This will be an emotional hedge for me, as getting a third win in a row and further embarrassment for Dickrod is probably too much to ask. Michigan is laying only 3 at home.....I'll be fading the home run hire Turner Gill until he figures out a way to get within double digits of anyone. Colorado is laying 8 against them in lawrence this week. Can you believe that? Dan Hawkins, who will almost certainly be finally fired as soon as the final gun goes off, is bette than a TD favorite on the road against these guys.....Utah is getting 5 at home. I know that TCU is an 800 pound gorilla with a chainsaw for a penis, but you have to take Utah in that role....Wake looked so bad last week that there is no way I can resist laying 3 with BC at Wake. Would never recommend it as a musing, though. as BC should not be favored on the road....Is this the week WAZZOU gets a win? If not, they might cover because they are getting 14 against "puny Jerry" CaL, who will be without QB Kevin Riley.
That's it for this week. Keep on fading, bros!!!!
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