Week 13 Musings (Friday)

7-4-1 last week gets the overall record to 67-79-6. So if I go 12-0 this week, (though I'll probably have more than that) which I of course expect, we can get back to even minus the juice, which would mean someone following these picks would only be down 15 units. That's if I go 12-0. Sounds great! Happy Thanksgiving by the way!!

This weekend looks like a fantastic weekend for games. The fact that the Big Ten has extended their season an additional week makes this probably the best overall card of the year. Michigan/Ohio St, previously the biggest game on any day it's played, is a total afterthought this week other than the drama surrounding whether DickRod will be able to keep his job. In my opinion, if Michigan can just get a competent defensive mind to corredinate for them, they aren't that far from being back in the mix for the Big Ten, so I can see the point of view for supporters of DR, because you cannot argue with the explosiveness of that offense. However, at the end of the day, there's a guy out there in Palo Alto who coaches a program in a way that makes old school Wolverines drool. Harbaugh is such a dead center perfect fit for Michigan that if he showed even a modicum of interest, I would lop off DR's head in a public ceremony if it helped my chances at getting Harbaugh. Anyway, in addition to that game, you have the Iron Bowl, LSU/Arkansas, all of the top teams playing, including Boise in a tough game with Nevada. It's just a great week. It's been extremely difficult to get a handle on all the games, so I'll probably leave a couple out that I'll look back on and wish I included.

Friday:

1. Ohio -3 1/2 @Kent St: I'm probably 0 for the year on the MAC, and a couple of the losses, if I remember correctly, were as a sresult of backing this sad sack Kent St team. The reason I had liked them this year was because their defense was playing extremely well. For a portion of the year, they were #1 in rush defense(per carry) and #2 in total defense(ypp). This was after playing some pretty decent teams, including Penn St. Even now, they're still ranked 4th in ypc against, but that really doesn't matter. They simply find ways to fuck everything up. Even though nobody can run on them, they still have managed to give up 21 rushing TDs. Offensively, they are terrible. they've had chances to do something notable several times this year and have failed each time. Now Ohio, the polar o[pposite of them, comes in. Ohio is not much statistically, but all they so is win under Solich. They just beat a good temple team(who admittedly is falling apart a bit) and come in on an 8 game conference winning streak. Kent's coach just resigned, and they've completely had the wheels come off, as even their defense has failed them. They've given up 45 to Army and 38 to Western Michigan in the last 2 weeks. I just can't see them hanging with a team that knows how to win.

2. Louisville -3 @Rutgers: it's tough to back a team as a road favorite when they've lost two in a row at home, but in this case, I think Louisville brings a solid effort. They have a shot at a bowl, since they are 5-6...Rutgers has been eliminated from bowl contention after their humiliation at Cincinnati last week. Nice call by the musings there. Thanksfully I didn't say something nice about the Rutgers defense in that blurb because they gave up 69 points and 600+ yards. Here's the basis of the play: Rutgers is ranked 107th in total offense, 117th in rushing offense. Louisville is 29th in total defense and 48th against the run. Rutgers is last in the country in sacks allowed, Louisville is 24th in sacks. Louisville also has the edge in offensive linev defensive line and can run the ball well with Bilal Powell. It just looks to me like the more motivated and overall better Louisville team should be able to take care of business here.

3. @Pitt -3 v West Virginia: If you put this game on a neutral field, I think I would make Pitt a 3-4 point favorite, so it makes sense that I would not have a problem backing them as only a 3 point favorite at home. Although WV is extremely good on defense, they are going to have a devil of a time scoring on Pitt on the road. Geno Smith is having all kinds of problems throwing the ball, and it's become evident that Noel Devine has been hurt pretty much all year. As a result, the explosiveness has completely vanished from the WV offensive attack. Even though WV will put up a good fight when they are on defense, as long at Pitt avoids turnovers, they have enough offensive talent to put up enough points to cover the short number. Oh, and this is one of the few times Wanny will have a distinct coaching edge.

4. @Akron -1 v Buffalo: Just for shits and giggles, I'll throw this one out there, because I think Akron will get their first win of the season here. They are currently 0-11, but have looked ok the last two weeks, losing in OT on the road to Ball State and falling in the last 5 minutes by 5 against a bowl team in Miami(OH). On the other hand, Buffalo, who is ranked 117th in total offense, has lost in consecutive weeks at home to two of the worst team in Division 1, Eastern Michigan and Ball St. Ball St actually dominated the Bulls, winning 20-3, and held them to a total of 144 yards of offense!. Akron is actually ranked in the top half in total defense, so they should have similar success in being able to control the various line plunges and crossbucks that this 6th grade level offense dreams up.

5. Auburn +4 1/2 @Alabama: When I contemplated this game during the course of the season, I thought that would would almost certainly be on Alabama, and I figured that this is where the spread would be, within about a 1/2 point. After looking at this game closely and comtemplating what I've seen from this Alabama team, I'm going the other way. When facing a good offense this year, Bama has struggled..there's no doubt about that. At home, they are a different animal, but I can't get the visions of Jordan Jefferson and Stephen Garcia having extremely good games against this defense out of my brain. Yes, Jordan Jefferson had very good success against this defense, and Stephen garcia was just about perfect. You would have to think that Cam Newton will be able to have some pretty good success in this game, regardless of where it's being played. Also, Bama cannot pressure the Qb. They are 89th in the country in sacks. If you are going to have success against a high powered offense, you have to impose your will be applying pressure. They haven't been able to do it against worst offenses than this. Also, as we all know, this Auburn offense is the top rushing offense in the country. bama has been hurt on the ground this year by lesser running attacks. Everyone talks about Auburn's defnse being lacking, but they are ranked 38th in yards per play...not bad. They struggle against the pass, but McElroy has been struggling in recent weeks, and Bama has not defined an identity for themselves offensively. Even if they decide to run, which is probably their best bet, Auburn is 22nd against the run, and Bama hasn't had a 100 yard rusher since they ran over Tennessee in October. I just think that geting 4 1/2 is the way to go in a game that I lean slightly to Auburn outright.

6. @Arizona St -12 v UCLA: As has been made clear recently, I like Arizona State's team this year. they've run into a lot of bad breaks and lost some close games. They'll have to win this one and beat Arizona on the road to make a bowl game, and that's too bad because they are better than probably 25 teams that will go bowling this year. Anyway, they have the same record as UCLA, but UCLA is 4-6 for good reason. They just suck ass. 111th in total offense, 120th in pass offense, 103rd in rush defense, 107th in 3rd down conversions against. If they had played a real Texas team and if Case Kennum and his backup haddn't gotten hurt, they'd be 2-8 and a laughingstiock nationally. ASU is competent in all the phases opposite the ones I listed for UCLA. They're 39th in total offense, 29th in total defense...they are a solid squad. This one should be over by halftime unless something screwy happens, or these teams play nothing like they've played all year. I dare say that this is one of my favorite games of the year.

7. @Oregon -18 v Arizona: This game is all over the board as far as a spread, but I just got it at 18 on Bet US. Oregon is coming off a terrible performance at Cal. It's ok, they're allowed one bad one. I seriously doubt it will happen again, and I don't think this Arizona defense will be much more than a wet nap in resistence. Arizona is looked at as a solid squad, but some careful observation will show that they really haven't been one. They beat iowa at home early, but so has 3 other teams, including Northwestern, and they needed several fluky plays to do it. The lost at home to Oregon St when the Beavers were lost. They should have lost to road Cal in Tucson. They gave up 400 yards of offense to UCLA. Stanford put up 500 yards on them, and they were noncompetitive in that one. They lost at home to USC. So ehat does that leave, as far as positives? Not much. Oregon is due to explode again, and I think they will. If Arizona plans on scoring 27 or so, maybe they'll cover...then again, maybe they won't because I think Oregon is going to want to make a statement. generally, I don't like laying points like this, but it's prudent here. I've been saying that I thought Oregon would drop one somewhere, but it won't be this week. I guess the Civil War then.

8. Boise -13 1/2 @Nevada: Boise is going to blow them out. Nevada won't hang with them. Nice team, but it's all Boise, all the time. Blood, Guts, Gore, Victory. By 28. Boom goes the dynamite.