Week 11 Musings

So the musings went 7-5-1 last week. Not bad, but not a very good recipe for success if you are trying to get your yearly record back to .500. It's similar to a boxing match where you take a haymaker, land a couple love taps, then take a couple more haymakers, then land a love tap. Does that work? No. You end up looking this this guy.

Not good. So, the overall record for this year comes now to 56-68-5. So we'll need to go 13-0 this week. Shouldn't be that difficult. I noticed that Oklahoma State is a sizable favorite over Texas this week. Hmmmm...that reminds me of the preseason musings. I think I might have made mention that I thought they were going to struggle this year. Let's take a look, to see how I fared in my prognostications, shall we?

Here's who I liked:

1. Auburn - "...they have a legitimate shot to be undefeated when they tee it up with Alabama in Tuscaloosa in the Iron Bowl..." Ok. Nice start.
2. Boise: That was a given. Not impressive.
3. A&M "...they willshow a lot of improvement on D because they brought in AirForce's former defensive coordinator..." Nice. A&M total defense yards per pay last year: 90th. This year: 9th. Good call.
4. South Carolina, vis a vis their chances in the SEC East. "...Florida will probably experience some growing pains..." Yes. "..Tennessee is a train wreck.." Yes. "...Steven Garcia is no virtuoso back there.." Nailed it.
5. Iowa and Wisconsin: No kidding, but Wisconsin is doing better than people thought.
Overall, not a bad list.

Who I didn't like:

1. Tennessee: Oh yeah, but that was easy to call.

2. LSU: Ugh...Ole Less has pulled yet another rabbit out of his hat. Someone cue the loud buzzer on that one.

3. BYU: Nailed this one. They've turned out even worse than I thought.

4. Oklahoma St: "...Talk about a cupboard being left bare....good Lord. Luckily for them Zac Robinson got hurt for awhile last year so QB Brandon Weeden could get some experience, otherwise, it would be Kendall Hunter and the 21 dwarves as far as returning experience goes. Hopefully, that punk Mike Gundy recruited some athletes." I guess I had never heard of Justin Blackmon. I also compared them to Washington St of all people. it's time to stand up and count Mike Gundy as one of the better coaches out there. I apologize for my poor judgement there.

On to this week. And remember....to quote Martin Short in the famous synchronized swimming "documentary" on SNL in the mid to late 80's..."I'm not that strong a hanicapper".



1. @Louisville -2 v South Florida: Both teams come into this game needing a win to become bowl eligible, but it's certainly more remarkable for Louisville, as many had them pegged for last in the Big East. Louisville has some question marks on offense in this game because they might be missing their QB and standout RB Bilal Powell, but they were missing both of those dudes last week and they handled Syracuse on the road anyway. I think USF will have all kinds of trouble getting anything going offensively against a pretty good Louisville defense, and the Cards have the added motivation of Senior Day and the home crowd. All we'll need is for them to win, and I think they can handle that.

2 Miami -2 1/2 @Georgia Tech: As I've mentioned in some previous entries, Georgia Tech just is not the same team as they were last year, and now they will be missing Josh Nesbitt, who is out for the year after fracturing his arm last week. I had a chance to watch backup Tevian Robinson, and he looked clueless with his decision making. They are also banged up in the backfield, and on the OL, which is not a good thing against this Miami defense who has been extremely good all year this year, and completely shut down this option attack last year in Miami. No word yet on if Jacory Harris plays, but if I'm a 'Canes fan, I actually root for a hangnail for Jacory so he doesn't play, as backup Stephen Morris has been just as good as Harris without the annoyances of the rapid fire INTs followed by lighting fast pouting. GT has had trouble stopping good passing attacks, which Miami has. Bad matchup for the Jackets.

3. @Colorado +2 1/2 v Iowa State: I realize that Colorado just made a coaching change, but in this case, it might have a positive effect. Also, Iowa State is completely foreign to the role of conference road favorite, having been in that role only once in the last 16 conference road games. Colorado, despite all they've botched in recent years, can run it a bit with Rodney Stewart, and they've had some success at home, having knocked off Georgia and rather easily dispatched Hawaii(which I am still trying to figure out.) I think they play with some urgency and get it done this week against a team that will be completely out of their element on the road.

4. Utah -5 @Notre Dame: I usually like to back the dog in games like this, but Notre Dame just doesn't have the players to compete in this game. If they had been injury free this year and not lost the likes of QB Crist, Armando Allen, Rudolph, etc,you could possibly make a case for them, but not now, especially when we are almost guaranted that their defense will continue to play the "matador" scheme. ND's strength is their offense, but we saw(Navy) how they can get in trouble when they are missing their playmakers, and in that case, even their offense looks bad. Utah, despite having their collective heads lopped off last week at home by TCU, does possess a statistically elite defense. I just don't see how the Irish will be able to keep up in this one, but it's definitely a public play.

5.Texas Tech +15 @Oklahoma: It's dangerous to fade the Sooners in Norman, but I remain convinced that this team is not very good. Statistically, these two teams are similar, and you can make several cases that TT is actually superior to Oklahoma on offense, especially when you look at the rushing numbes for the Sooners. TT struggles with turnovers, but if the Red Raiders can avoid getting turnovers, they might have enough power to put a big scare in to the Sooners, and you have to wonder about OU's psyche since they are now playing without the carrot in front of them.

6. Wyoming -4 1/2 @ UNLV: Haaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhh???? Wyoming lost last week to New Mexico!!! How in the world can I back them as a road favorite this week??? Because they appear to have a running game scratched together, and they are playing UNLV, who is probably the biggest collection of sad sacks college football has seen in awhile. They have not warmed up to their new coach, and rumors abound that they have given up for the season. Their results certainly indicate that. Since their rivalry game with Nevada, they have not been competitive, having lost 49-10, 43-10, 48-6 and 55-7 in their last 4. They are absolutely laying down for people. Any kind of rational number must be taken when the opponent is UNLV at this point.

7. @Colorado St +6 1/2 v BYU: Even when BYU was good they always struggled in Fort Collins. Now, CSU has a better offense, a comparable defense, and is getting 6 1/2.. BYu has not been competitive at all on the road, and Colorado State is getting better as their true freshman QB finally figures out how to throw the ball further than 7 yards downfield.

8. Texas A&M -3 @Baylor: Baylor really let me down last week when they traveled to Boone Pickens's house to take on the OSU Cowboys and got blown out. They have all kinds of problems on defense, and as you might have heard, I am on board with the decision to throw Ryan Taneyhill out there to get the offense rolling. A&M's defense is for real, so I'll give them a much better shot at stopping that Baylor attack, while I expect limited response from the Baylor D against Mike Sherman's game plan.

9. @Florida St: -6 v Clemson: Clemson can't do a thing on offense as long as Andre Ellington is out of commision, especially this week because the FSU defense is plenty pertubed about the grabby grab performance they showed against UNC last week. One of the Stoops brothers is their DC, so I'm sure he was screaming and drooling and spitting when he talked all week at practice. You'll see an inspired defense, and as long as the offense can throw out a decent performance, FSU should be in good shape. Keep in mind that Clemson is only averaging 333 yards per game, and had only 260 last week. FSU's defense in Tallahassee is a hell of a lot more menacing than Nc State's is on the road, I can tell you that. There is some chatter that Christian Ponder might be a game time decision, but the Noles need this game, so I'm sure he's going to play.

10. @Florida -6 1/2 v South Carolina: The battle for the SEC East's spot in the SEC Championship game is on the line here, and Florida is in position again. South Carolina has not looked good lately. I can give them a pass for the game last week against Arkansas, since the game this week was for all the marbles regardless of what the Cocks did in that game. Even Spurrier looked like he mailed it in. I'm not making this determination based at all on that game, because I think South Carolina is going to play a spirited game. But even so, things just have a way of falling apart for this program. That's been evident in Spurrier's entire tenure. I will be rooting hard for them in this game, because I really don't want to see Florida in the SEC title game again, but I just don't see it. RB Marcus Lattimore is extremely important to their success offensively, and he is very banged up and won't be 100%. That means that Stephen garcia will have to conjure up a second herculean performance this year, and the poor kid just doesn't have it in him. The over under on Florida defensive scores should probably be set at 1.5, as they are a ball hawking bunch, and Urban undoubtedly wants a couple, so it shall be so. Like I said..I'll be rooting for the Cocks, but I see this being a 28-13 type game.

11. Mississippi St +13 @Alabama: I think it's going to be hard for Alabama to produce enough points to cover 13 against Mississippi St (+13) even though the game is in Tuscaloosa. Miss St is ranked 24th in the country in yards per play, so I would see a yardage total of about 350 for Bama in this one, and it's hard to cover double digits in that case unless you get a bunch of turnovers. It can happen, because Miss St isn't very good on offense, but I have faith in Dan Mullen to cover this. Kudos to the Mulldogs, by the way...their road slate in the SEC is @LSU, @Florida and @Bamaplus the Egg Bowl, and they'll probably be in a good bowl game. They also were a dropped pass away from beating Auburn in that early Thursday nighter too. Not sure about Alabama's psyche coming into this game either.

12 @Arizona St +5 1/2 v Stanford: Arizona St is a completely snakebitten team. They've lost by 1 at Wisconsin because of a blocked extra point, then lost by one last week at USC because USC took back a blocked extra point for 2. They also lost at Oregon State on a last second FG, and outgained Oregon by 200+ yards in another loss. Their other loss was by 50 or something, but that was to Home Cal, so no criticism there. Now they get Stanford at home, and this is the #1 public play of the week. It's more of a hunch for me, because this line has not budged..it seems like Vegas is begging for money on ASU. Also, I think Stanford is due for a clunker, as they've looked absolutely fabulous the last couple weeks.


Others: I think there's a good chance that Purdue might be getting 14 when all is said and done, so I have a hunch that the Boilers will hang with Michigan at home. Their offense has been brutal, but they get to go against that Michigan D, and like I said, it's hard to cover a 2 TD spread when you can't stop anyone on defense....vandy has been an embarrassment this year, and they have dropped the ball twice in a row in their preferred role of road conference dog, but I'll have faith in them one more time as they travel to kentucly catching 14.5....Maryland is a sad sack program, but they find themselves still in the hunt in whatever division they play in in the ACC. I guess the other teams in their division, whoever the hell they are, haven't asserted themselves, so Maryland can win the damn thing if they win out. They'll probably fuck that up this week at Virginia(+2.5).... Nobody knows if Cam Newton is going to play this week, because it appears that the heat is getting very hot in the kitchen at Auburn regarding whether or not Newton's father sold him to Auburn. If I'm Auburn, if he gets declared ineligible, the whole season gts forfeited anyway, so I play him. However, there is some whispering that the NCAA is telling Auburn they have the goods, and the death penalty comes in play if they don't sit the kid immediately. Anyway, if Newton plays, Georgia is going to get a beat down, and the spread was at 7 last I saw. If not, the gme isn't betable, unless they favor Georgia or something stupid like that....Anyone who gets in the way of this Oregon runaway locomotive (like TCU) is a moron, so I won't make it a musing, but on principle, Home Cal is getting 20 points!!!! It's got to be taken, just to see if the earth will reverse it's rotation or something. Could be an atomic collision, since Home Cal is not human. It's like King Kong or something. Home Cal must be killed to be defeated....... I generally like Oklahoma St to beat Texas like a red headed stepchild this week, but Matt Millen is calling that game, so anything that can possibly completely ruin my viewing pleasure will happen in that game. I'd like to see Texas get crushed and embarrassed at home, so they'll probably sack up and win. Seriously, Millen equals death for me. I've had 5 or 6 musings on the games he's called, and I'm 0 for the year in those games. Last week, he called the Northwestern/Penn State game. No musing on that game last week, but I threw a couple bucks on NW +7, and I almost always root for the Cats. I wasn't watching during the first quarter, and was delighted to see the cats up 21-0. Then I started watching, and the Millen effect took hold. 35 unanswered points later, I lose the bet and realize the mistake I made. That guy is cancer. He's AIDS. He's whatever you hate the most in human form. I hope he comes across a band of homosexual bikers on the way to Austin and gets....ahh forget it.

Hope you guys have a good week. take care!!!!!!!!