Week 10 Musings

Mark Dantonio, you might want to have one of your worthless homosexual players start your car this week. I was made a fool of last week by your chicken shit team, and I don't take kindly to being made a fool of. Dickrod....do you think it might be time to find a single player who can tackle someone, or perhaps it might be time to hire a defensive coordinator who breathes through his nose occasionally? Houston Dale Nutt....you could have confused Cam Newton by making him wear his unfamiliar white uniform, but you couldn't even figure that out, and Auburn rearranged your team's collective face. (And yeah, that was the only reason.) Lane Kiffin, you gave me yet another reason as to why you sit atop my list of people I'd most like to punch in the face. Look at the bright side, though..at least your team of 5 star Adonis athletes were able to hold Oregon under 600 total yards(599) on your home field. You can be proud of that.

The musings went 4-6-1 last week, which brings the overall record to 8-79-3 for the year. At least it feels that way. I am officially punch drunk. The actual record is 49-63-4...almost no chance to battle back to .500. I'm hoping everyone got my subliminals last week. Believe it or not, I was fortunate to cover a game last week. I told you all that I would relay any information about a fortunate break for the musings if it ever happened, and for the first time in weeks, it did. Marshall should not have covered against UTEP last week. With 7 minutes left in the game, UTEP trailed 7-6, then scored a TD. However, Marshall blocked the PAT and ran it back for 2 points, which made the score 12-9 when it should have been 13-7. Marshall then took the next possession and scored a TD, taking the lead 16-12 and eventually covering the 3. So there. It happened. Once. I'll continue to report any additional lucky breaks.

Once thing I failed to mention last week was the remarkable events of the World Series. Not so much that the Rangers and Giants franchises made it, but that a team managed by Ron Washington AND a team generally managed by Brian Sabean actually both made the world series. I don't think people realize how unlikely this was. First, have any of you ever seen Ron Washington? First of all, he's an admitted coke fiend. He looks like he would be just as likely to be found sprawled on the sidewalk in front of a Harvey liquor store as he would be in the Rangers clubhouse...actually much more so. It would literally take me all night to list all of the bonehead moves that Brian Sabean has made over the years, but suffice it to say he makes Jim Hendry look like an astute follower of sabermetrics. He doesn't have the sense God gave to an ant. That those two made it to the World Series makes you understand that sometimes the Good Lord works in mysterious ways. He proved that when Less Miles got a head coaching job.

On to this weeks laughable attempt. As always, I swear I really like these games!!!

1. Maryland +8 @Miami(FL): Back to the well against Miami, for what seems like about the 10th time this season. Of course it's a very dangerous play because Maryland sucks ass on offense and they are coming off a game of a lifetime against Wake(62-14) and Miami just lost to Vagina of all people, so you couldn't possibly get less value with this spread. However, consider this: Maryland is 6-2, and they are ranked 7th in the country in yards allowed per play. They will be facing a backup QB who failed to complete even 41% of his passes in relief duty of the concussed and fetal position prone Jacory Harris and threw in 3 picks for good measure. They also will be without starting RB Damien berry, who has been getting ALL the carries in this offense lately, and Maryland is ranked 18th in the country against the run. Miami at this point has lost all hope of reaching any of their goals, and they aren't well coached to begin with. Another half filled house awaits them at noon in that stadium...you might get a lethargic performance even for them. Like I said, Maryland is 6-2, and smells a much better bowl game than they thought they had a right to dream about coming in to the season. I think there's a good chance Maryland wins this outright. I'll be surprised if Miami plays inspired at all.

2. Louisville +7 @Syracuse: I would buy this up from the current 6.5...the line moved from 6 earlier today, so it might be 7 when the public gets a hold of it tomorrow. Syracuse has been a nice story, and I've profited on them quite a bit this year. they have been a very good road dog, but they, and teams like them are very ill-suited for this role. Offensively, they are doing things with smoke and mirrors. Statistically, these two teams are basically identical, but it looks like Louisville RB Bilal Powell, their best player, won't be playing. They have a previous 1k rusher ready to step in (Victor Anderson) so the line move will be sufficient to cover for the value. This game can be capped with both teams managing about 275-300 yards of total offense. It's very hard for a team to cover a sizable spread with those conditions, and as I mentioned Syracuse is very ill suited for the favorites role. How many times have you seen a team relish the dog role and cover based on good breaks and nice bounces, then come home and lay an egg as a decent sized favorite? Happens a lot.

3. @Army +7 v Air Force: Buy it to 7, or just play it at 6.5 if you don't want to. I think this might finally be the year Army cracks the code and beats one of these other service academies. The Knights at 5-3, and although they haven't beaten anyone of note, and have played nowhere near the schedule of Air Force, I think they can win on Saturday. First, the situation works greatly in their favor. AF is coming off a tough loss in their last marquee test of the year at home with Utah. Now they have to travel all the way to West Point to play Army, who has been paying in wait for them for 3 weeks, since they are off a bye and a warmup with VMI the past two weeks. AF continues to be woeful against the run, which is all Army does, and Army has hung in there in all facets on defense. I just think this is a terrible spot for AF, and there's no doubt that this is Army's Superbowl to date for the year. (Until they play Navy).

4. NC State +4 @Clemson: I just got it at 4 on Bet Us..hopefully it'll stay there. I just couldn't stay away from this one, as much as I wanted to. Frankly, I'm very surprised that this line has stayed where it is even after Clemson RB Andre Ellington was ruled out of this game. Ellington basically IS the Clemson offense. In recent weeks, if he doesn't run for long TD's either at RB or on a return, Clemson doesn't score. To wit: He didn't do anything last week at BC. They lost. The week before that, Clemson scored 3 Tds. He scored all 3. 2 on long runs, and 1 on a 10 yard reception after his punt return set up Clemson in the red zone. The week before that he returned a kickoff for a score and a punt to the red zone to set up another score (which he scored) against Maryland. Two weeks before that, he scored all 3 of their TDs against Miami, including a 71 yarder. Also, Clemson is now 4-4, and my guy Dabo is hearing it from the unsatisfied Clemson faithful. If they struggle, expect to hear the boos, and NC State, though not great, has the balance on both sides of the ball to give them trouble. They're 6-2 by the way.

5. Baylor +8 1/2 @Oklahoma St: These two teams are completely indistinguishable from each other on paper. Oklahoma is slightly better on defense, but Baylor is a bit more explosive on offense. I also lean to Art Briles in the coaching matchup here. Baylor in almost every game has put up 600 yards or better, and we are all still waiting for Oklahoma St to be exposed. They haven't been great at home, having snuck past A&M and Troy while losing to Nebraska. Baylor is in dangerous territory since they just won their game of the decade against Texas, but I think they stay hungry and put up a good fight against the Pokes. With teams so similar and with similar rewards to play for 8.5 is a lot of points, even if the score gets up there.

6. Akron +13 1/2 @Ball State: Do I really recommend betting on a team that is 0-9 and coming off back to back shutouts? If they are getting two TDs from Ball State, yep. Akron is still looking for it's first W of the season, which if history is any guide, will almost certainly come. What better candidate than Ball State, a team that has already lost at home to Liberty and the putrid Eastern Michigan Eagles? You're also getting 13.5 here so even if you get mostly pasted, you will still have a great shot at a cover. An outright is definitely possible, unless BSU all of a sudden sacks up and takes care of business. (Snicker)

7 Nebraska -17 @Iowa St: I think Nebraska is going to completely destroy Iowa St in this one. The Huskers still remember Iowa St coming into their house and beating them 9-7 in what had to be one of the worst performances of the decade for the Nebraska offense. Iowa St has given up 50+ to Oklahoma and 68 to Utah in recent weeks, so Nebraska will likely see a lot of success with Taylor Martinez and company. Also, Iowa St has very little chance of doing much with the Nebraska defense, which has completely shut down most of the passing games they ave come across. I can see a 45-7 game here, very easily.

8. LSU + 6 1/2 v Alabama: Can LSU win this game? I have a hard time thinking they can, but that's my bias against Less Miles talking. Alabama has been struggling to find an identity on offense lately, and I think they will have a hard time getting points on the board in this game. LSU matches up much better against Alabama's offense than they do against an offense like Auburn's. They can stop the straight ahead running game of Ingram and Richardson, and Patrick Peterson can lock up Julio Jones. The question is whether LSU can score on Bama, and they've gotten lucky before. I just think that almost a full TD is too much here for the Tigers, and CBS's midday game usually results in a close score.

9. @Texas A&M +3 v Oklahoma: I've always wondered why Mike Sherman never got another pro job after he left the Packers. The guy was the head coach and I believe GM or a successful NFL team that was in the playoffs just about every year, and for all intents and purposes, the Packers were considered a well run organization at the time. Now he coaches A&M, and I think his offense has really taken off now that he has found the right Qb for his offense. Ryan Taneyhill was installed as the starter after some nice looking work in relief of turnover machine Jerod Johnson vs Kansas. Since then, A&M is putting up monster numbers. Oklahoma, on the other hand, has played twice on the road, and was outgained by it's foes both times. For the season, OU is ranked 50th in ypp on defense, and is 98th in rush offense. They've looked lethargic in their road games, and I think if Taneyhill plays aggressively, they can win this game.

10. Texas -3 1/2 @Kansas St: If you look at Texas during this slide, they have outgained all of their opponents, including Baylor last week and Oklahoma a couple weeks before. Texas matches up very well with Kansas St, since the Wildcats pretty much are relegated to running the ball. Texas stops the run for the most part, and I think K State is a bit out of their element. Texas wil probably be happy to be away from Austin as well.

11. Oregon St -5 @UCLA: The death march continues for this UCLA team . Oregon St, on the other hand, hits it's stride at this time of year every year. Their defensive stats are skewed a bit, as they've gotten some parts back from injury. UCLA simply can't score or throw the bal at all. Oregon St will get theirs since the line and offense appear to be settling in. I like the Beavers big in this one.

12. Arizona St +5 1/2 @ USC: This line looks like a misprint, but i like the situation for ASU. USC just had their SuperBowl, and they now enter their thrird consecutive home game. What, at this point, is there to get excited about for anyone in that program? That you can go 9-4?? Arizona St is certainly not an exciting opponent, but they have been a pretty good team this year with success on both sides of the ball. Take away their blowout loss to schitzophrenic Cal,(Aside......speaking of Cal, I don't think I've ever seen a team have such a bipolar personality based on whether they are at home or on the road. If anyone remembers the Tom and Jerry episode where Jerry mistakenly drinks the mothballs/acid combination that turns him into a seething growling beast who rips Tom's arms off, then immediately wears off and turns him back into a meek, tiny little mouse, that's home and road Cal. So losing to home Cal appears to just be a fact of life at this point) and they've lost by a FG at Oregon State, a single point at Wisconsin, and beat Washington handily when Washington was healthy. Also keep in mind that they are ranked 37th in yards per play on offense, while USC is 100th on defense, and you can see why the spread sits where it does. The public is 77% on USC, but I don't think they are taking into consideration the mammoth situational advantage enjoyed by ASU here.

Others: Don't look now, but the Illini can reach bowl eligibility with a win at Michigan, which would be their thrird in a row over Dickrod. hell, they still have a game with minnesota too, so they might get themselves to a Jan 1 bowl if they can find ways to beat Northwestern at Wrigley and Fresno at Fresno. Who knows. This will be an emotional hedge for me, as getting a third win in a row and further embarrassment for Dickrod is probably too much to ask. Michigan is laying only 3 at home.....I'll be fading the home run hire Turner Gill until he figures out a way to get within double digits of anyone. Colorado is laying 8 against them in lawrence this week. Can you believe that? Dan Hawkins, who will almost certainly be finally fired as soon as the final gun goes off, is bette than a TD favorite on the road against these guys.....Utah is getting 5 at home. I know that TCU is an 800 pound gorilla with a chainsaw for a penis, but you have to take Utah in that role....Wake looked so bad last week that there is no way I can resist laying 3 with BC at Wake. Would never recommend it as a musing, though. as BC should not be favored on the road....Is this the week WAZZOU gets a win? If not, they might cover because they are getting 14 against "puny Jerry" CaL, who will be without QB Kevin Riley.

That's it for this week. Keep on fading, bros!!!!