Good start with UVA last night, although it looked like they were trying their hardest to screw up my money line bet. Good job to them though. We'll see if Bronco and his pack of Mormons can show enough balls to stay on the field with TCU tonight. I think they will. But that usually doesn't mean anything.
Also, last night, I stayed up to watch the World Series game. That in itself is pretty rare, as I don't recall a single pitch from any World Series since the one the White Sox were in. However, if the Cardinals have a chance to get closed out, and I get an opportunity to perhaps witness Cardinal fans having their hearts ripped out. I'm always going to be up for that. Great game, but I didn't get what I hoped. Actually, I got the opposite. As you may or may not know, the Cardinals spent most of the late innings falling behind, then battling back to tie the game. They did it in the 7th, they did it again in the bottom of the 9th. Fast forward to the 10th, where Josh Hamilton cranks a two run homer to put the Cardinals behind once again. The camera immediately cuts to some punk kid Cardinals fan, who is maybe 9 years old looking up at the sky and shaking his head, as if he is lamenting his terrible luck as a baseball fan. He's about to burst out crying, when the camera cuts away. Now, this is the moment I've been waiting for. I want misery for these people, especially the children. But instead of feeling satisfaction, now I'm angry. This little mother fucker thinks he's got it bad? Because your team fell behind in one of the best World Series games ever played? Shit, you're only 9 years old and you've already seen your team win a World Series! In a year where they sucked! Talk to the 107 year old guy from Skokie who was too young to remember the last time the Cubs won one, then feel sorry for yourself, asshole!
Speaking of the Cubs, let me give you my reaction to the course of events that led to Theo Epstien and his gang of baseball nerd geniuses taking over operations. Joy. Finally, I will have a regime that I can 100% get behind. One that is making decisions based on logic and reason rather than hip snap and rustic mountain man shoulders, or "plate coverage". I'm all in. Don't say anything bad about Theo Epstien or any of these guys, because if you do, I will track you down and attempt to change your mind and convince you the error of your ways.
Last week was of course a disaster. I should have known to call for a fade. This is a good example of how it's hard to build much momentum if you don't have any outstanding weeks, which I have not had in a long time. 8-5 is great, but you need some 10-3's or 11-4's to get yourself in position to absorb a shit week. 4-8 was the damage last week. Season record falls to 53-53-2. A big middle finger gets extended to a few people as a result. 1. Colorado. Not a person, but if it was, Colorado's football team would be a combination of the following. http://izismile.com/2009/07/29/the_best_nerds_of_all_ever_46_pics.html .I was hoping that Darron Thomas would only play a half. He didn't even play at all. A backup QB, third string RB and you still can't even compete on your home field? Disgraceful. I'm a disgrace for even thinking they had a chance to compete. I'm going to wear a bag over my head. 2. The guy from Georgia Tech who fielded a bouncing punt, bobbled it, then kicked it backwards into the end zone so a Miami guy could fall on it. Nothing like just handing your opponent a touchdown like you're handing out Halloween candy or flipping a nickel to a bum, especially when it takes your offense 22 plays and 11 minutes just to miss a field goal. 3. Dayne Crist. Nice job. I'll just let you watch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIwK6HmYfYg&feature=related.
3. @Indiana +9 v Northwestern: I think this line might continue to go up now that it's been confirmed that Dan Persa is going to play, but Northwestern's defense is so bad, I don't think it really matters. There's just no way they should be laying this many points on the road. Of course, with this Indiana team it's risky to back them since the suck ass themselves, but they looked a lot better on offense last week, and teams under first year coaches start to gain some momentum around this time. Also, looking at their remaining schedule, this one is about the best chance they have to get a win, and I think they'll be working hard for it. They've settled on Tre Roberson as their QB, which is probably their best option. In the last 7 meetings, all the games have been close, with the margins being 3,1,2,3, OT and OT. These were much better Northwestern teams, too. The Cats are ranked 102nd in overall defense and 109th against the pass. It's hard for me to think they'll win this in a blowout. If Indiana gets off to a good start, they could win this outright pretty easily. Unless of course NW returns the opening kickoff for a score and then IU fumbles the first offensive snap at their own 14.
4. @Texas A&M -10 v Missouri: Things are starting to unravel for Mizzou, as they lost a tough one at home to Oklahoma St in a game that was closer than it appeared. They are just not having a charmed year. The schedule broke bad for them, and they are turning the ball over in tough spots. last year, the came in to College Station put a whooping on A&M in what was easily their worst game of the year. A&M will be ready to make amends this year, and I think Mizzou will be a willing foil based on their game last week. Mizzou can run it, but A&M is 4th in the country against the run. A&M's weakness on defense is against the pass, but Mizzou has been struggling in that area. Mizou plays pretty good defense but they can't stop the pass, something that A&M excels at. Just more bad timing for the Tigers. If they want to cover this, they'll have to hold A&M under 30, and I don't see it happening.
5. NC State +19 @Florida State: Back to the well here. Nc State after last week is now 24-11 as a road dog since '01. They beat a good Virginia team outright as a dog last week on the road, so I'm going to count them worthy for consideration again. FSU is coming into this one off 2 pretty easy victories, and this will be their second straight against a ho hum opponent at home. Noon start doesn't elicit much enthusiasm either, so I would be surprised if NC State gets FSU's best effort. NC State has also been very opportunistic on defense, leading the country in interceptions while Manuel and Trickett have both had issues tossing the ball around carelessly. FSU has also been weak defensively against the pass, which is NC State's "strength" if you can count on Mike Glennon. They should stay in the game, unless of course, Glennon gets stung by a bee and coughs it up on his own 2 a couple times or something.
6. @Penn State -5 v Illinois: Bad matchup here for the Illini. One thing that we've seen from Ron Zook is that once the snowball starts rolling downhill, he has a hard time coaching his team up to stop it. In the last 3 weeks, Illinois has come out completely flat and not ready to play. When they're playing Indiana, who couldn't get out of their own way, they were able to overcome it. When they play decent teams like Ohio State and Purdue(at least Home Purdue), they can't overcome it. The same is likely to happen this week. For whatever reason, they don't trust Nathan Scheelhaase to do what made him the 8th ranked passer in the country in passer rating the first 6 weeks of the season. They won't be able to run on Penn State, that is for certain, and the sideways, short stuff isn't going to work either. they probably won't be able to protect well enough to go downfield, since they are ranked 105th in sacks against and PSU has been pressuring people all year. Penn state, on the other hand won't have much success on offense either, but they'll have enough for a comfortable win against an Illinois team that needs the bye week pretty badly.
7. @Kansas St +13 v Oklahoma: This is a very public play, but this is just way too many points here. Oklahoma has shown that against good competition, they are not the juggernaut that everybody thinks they are. Missouri torched them all game on defense, Florida State shut them down on offense, and we know what Texas Tech did last week. K State doesn't look like much offensively or defensively on the stat sheet, but they keep doing what it takes to win, and they have moved the ball effectively against everyone they've played. There is a risk that they'll be unable to stop OU's passing game, but I think Bill Snyder has shown that he can scheme with the best of them, and I think you'll see an inspired effort from the Cats. If OU gets off the mat and blows them out, I'll tip my cap.
8. @Oklahoma State -14 v Baylor: It seems like a lot of points, but when the game figures to have have more than 80 points scored, 14 isn't all that much. Baylor is dreadful on defense, and especially dreadful when trying to keep this particular madcap offense under wraps. Last year, Baylor gave up 725 yards to these guys. 55 points seems like an inefficient total considering that yardage. They racked up 8.8 yards per play. In their last game, Baylor gave up 681 yards to an inferior offense to this in A&M, so we can probably expect as many yards/points as the Cowboys feel like dropping in this one. Obviously, Baylor is also capable of some offensive fireworks, but OSU's strength is stopping the pass. They actually rank 15th against the pass nationally.It'll be a high scoring game, but Baylor won't be able to keep up. This line should include another TD cushion for the Bears.
9. @Rutgers +7(buy it) v West Virginia: Say what you will about Rutgers(and I've said a lot), they find ways to stay in every game. They are brutal on offense from a yards per play standpoint (AAAAAAPPP!!), but they've found ways to get points on the board. WV looked absolutely brutal last week, and I'm not sure if Dana Holgerson is the kind of guy to rally the troops into a better performance this week. He's more of a "You guys suck and aren't worthy of my system" guy, in my opinion. Rutgers has lost 16 in a row to WV, so they'll definitely be jacked up to end that streak. I made the mistake of thinking that the Mountainners had a good defense last week, but they couldn't find their ass in a haystack up in that stupid dome. Rutgers has been good defensively, especially at home and has been good in this role. They are also much more likely to win the turnover battle here, and the last time they were dogged in a position like this, they took care of Pitt rather easily.
10. Oregon St +5 @Utah: Another terrible pick by the musings last week was Utah, who mustered only 170 yards of offense against Cal. Now they come home to face Oregon St, yet another subject of a painful musing. Oregon St usually starts to hit their stride about now, and Utah is starting to show where this particular edition of the Utes stacks up within the PAC 12. I think they'll eventually compete under Whittingham, but this team has issues, especially at QB now that Jordan Wynn is hurt. This clown Hays was able to engineer a victory or two outside of the league, but Utah has struggled like crazy in conference, having been beaten soundly by Cal and USC on the road, and Washington and Arizona St at home. Don't really see why they should be favored here, especially since the Beavs are playing much better on both sides of the ball.
11. @Auburn -12.5 v Ole Miss: This is another square play, but I can't see the Rebs throwing out a good performance here, especially at noght against an Auburn squad that should be motivated after shitting the bed on national TV last week. Big time class relief for Auburn and RB Michael Dyer, who should have a big day against the nation's 116th rush defense. Auburn also will be facing an offense no better than the Florida team they held to 6 points two weeks ago. There's a lot of nonsense about avoiding going against Houston Nutt, because he's dangerous when he's desperate. I think the guy's a buffoon, and I am not impressed by his intellect, to say the least. I'm laying the points!
12. @Ohio St +7.5 v Wisconsin: Big situational advantage here for Ohio St, coming off a bye while Wisconsin just lived through their worst nightmare last Saturday night. My guess is that OSU has devised some schemes to allow them to actually throw a forward pass this week, but even if not, I think they will have some success running the ball with Herron and Miller. Also, they now have all of their people back on defense, and I think they'll match up pretty well against Wisconsin. I just don't see the Badgers imposing their will here, and I think they'll get OSU's best effort. If their best effort isn't enough to some within a TD at home against the Badgers, then I'll tip my cap.
13. Clemson -3.5 @Georgia Tech: This might be one of the squarest plays I've ever made, but those seem to be the ones I cash lately. Georgia Tech completely blew the doors off everyone they played early in the year, but that is now starting to look like a function of their competition more than the result of a finely tuned machine. They ran all over Kansas, MTSU, etc, which should bn expected, especially given what Home Run Hire Turner Gill has given us in terms of defensive results this year. In the last 3 weeks, against decent, but not great defenses, GT has averaged 4.37 yards per play. That would be good for 109th in the country if extrapolated through the whole year. Like I said, they've played decent defenses in thiose weeks. Maryland(84th in ypp against), Virginia(32) and Miami(78) are the teams they've faced. Now they face Clemson, who is ranked 65th, but has handled the option pretty well in their last 3 tries against it, much like Miami had previously. Throw in the fact that Clemson has a horseshoe up it's ass, and GT likes to fumble punts into their own endzone and you've got a pretty compelling case for the Tigers. GT also has had loads of problems stopping offenses like this in recent years, and I'll be extremely surprised if Ellington and Watkins don't have a load of big plays. This is a team that scored 59 points last week on only 450 total yards. Let's just admit it's their year, and that they are likely to be able to keep it going against a team that has bad shit happen to it constantly.
Others: It's the mother of all bad spots for Michigan St, coming off two mega emotional games with Nebraska(-4) just licking their chops off a bye and Minnesota, but I don't trust Nebraska's defense enough to recommend it solely on the bad spot when I have to lay more than a FG. if it was 3 or less, it'd be a musing though....Navy is getting 21.5 at Notre Dame, and this would normally be an auto musing, but navy's QB got hurt, and I know nothing about the new kid. Also, navy is absolutely helpless on defense. It's still too many points for this schizophrenic ND team in any case, but not a musing due to the uncertainty of the QB couple with the certainty which is their putrid defense....I lean to Wake(+7) because they are a solid squad playing against a turnover machine in UNC. QB tanner Price has been ailing though, so I'd hate to recommend it and then hear that he's not going to play. UNC is also due to put a nice game together, but until they do, I'll back a nice Wake squad against them getting significant points.....I have a feeling that Tennessee(+3) is going to spoil things for the head Ball Coach this week, even though they are starting a true freshman QB against a dynamite defense. However, South Carolina can't do a thing on offense, and that will especially be the case without Marcus Lattimore. They find ways to screw things up at times as well..this seems like a good time for it....I'll never back Tulane in a musing again, but I am stuck on the fact that they look really good on paper. For example, this week, they appear to have the edge in almost every statistical category at ECU, but they're getting 17 points. I have to take them on principle, despite the fact that they've been blown out on the road against Army and Duke this year, and are coming off a loss to Memphis of all people. That's it for now, take care!!!!!!!
Friday, October 28, 2011
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Week 9 Weekday Musings
Very quickly, I'll get these out. I'll get to the carnage that was week 8 in the full complement, which will come later. Safe to say that I was afraid of the possibility of a 4-8 week. I just hoped that for once a couple wrong sides would cover. What a hillarious proposition. On to the weekday stuff.
1. Virginia +14 @Miami(FL)(Thursday!!): If this was a regular Saturday noon game, I'd be even more excited about the play, but I think this sets up very nicely. Virginia has shown quite a bit of improvement this year, defensively they've been tough, ranked 14th in the country in yards per play against, and they've done enough offensively, at least with the running game to be dangerous. Last week, however, coming off a nice win over Georgia Tech, they laid an egg offensively at home, losing in disappointing fashion. The reports are that the team has really bought in to coach Mike London's schemes, so chances are they will deliver a good performance coming off that clunker.LOn the other hand, Miami is coming off their 3rd straight good performance, yet another game in which Jacory Harris kept his mistakes to a minimum. They did a great job on Georgia Tech last week...and I conveniently ignored that they've had a good history in doing that since Johnson has been at Ga Tech. However, they are still giving up better than 4.5 a pop on the ground even after holding down Tech, and UVa has run it effectively. After coming within a whisker of winning in Blacksburg, beating UNC in Chapel Hill and blasting Georgia Tech last week, there is little chance that Miami is at all impressed with the prospect of Virginia coming to town, even though the Cavaliers beat them last year. Virginia is good enough defensively that they will have to be firing on all cylinders in order to score adequately. I think there's a chance for the outright for Virginia here. That's assuming their QB doesn't bobble a snap, have it bounce off his knee into an on-rushing defender's hands for a 78 yard TD.
2. BYU +13 v TCU(at Jerry's World) FRIDAY: After looking for ways to fade Jake Heaps led BYU earlier this year, I've been looking for ways to back Riley Nelson led BYU now. I've found one here. Since Nelson took the controls in the 2nd half of their comeback win at home against Utah St a few weeks back, BYU has gone from 100+ in yard per pass attempt to 12th in the country during that span. Nelson's combination of running and passing ability has completely changed their offense, and I think he matches up well against TCU's defense. TCU has improved their numbers since their bad start defensively, but it's mostly because they've been playing the New Mexicos of the world. They are struggling to stop the pass, still ranked 90th. Defensively, BYU is better than most of the teams TCU has played. Throw in the fact that this one is not being played at TCU, but at Jerry's Worls, and I think 13 is way too much. In my opinion, these teams are very evenly matched. I'll definitely take the points here. Hopefully BYU won't muff a punt for a TD, or fumble a couple kickoff returns for scores.
That's it for now. More to come later. Hopefully, I'll have some sort of clue this week.
1. Virginia +14 @Miami(FL)(Thursday!!): If this was a regular Saturday noon game, I'd be even more excited about the play, but I think this sets up very nicely. Virginia has shown quite a bit of improvement this year, defensively they've been tough, ranked 14th in the country in yards per play against, and they've done enough offensively, at least with the running game to be dangerous. Last week, however, coming off a nice win over Georgia Tech, they laid an egg offensively at home, losing in disappointing fashion. The reports are that the team has really bought in to coach Mike London's schemes, so chances are they will deliver a good performance coming off that clunker.LOn the other hand, Miami is coming off their 3rd straight good performance, yet another game in which Jacory Harris kept his mistakes to a minimum. They did a great job on Georgia Tech last week...and I conveniently ignored that they've had a good history in doing that since Johnson has been at Ga Tech. However, they are still giving up better than 4.5 a pop on the ground even after holding down Tech, and UVa has run it effectively. After coming within a whisker of winning in Blacksburg, beating UNC in Chapel Hill and blasting Georgia Tech last week, there is little chance that Miami is at all impressed with the prospect of Virginia coming to town, even though the Cavaliers beat them last year. Virginia is good enough defensively that they will have to be firing on all cylinders in order to score adequately. I think there's a chance for the outright for Virginia here. That's assuming their QB doesn't bobble a snap, have it bounce off his knee into an on-rushing defender's hands for a 78 yard TD.
2. BYU +13 v TCU(at Jerry's World) FRIDAY: After looking for ways to fade Jake Heaps led BYU earlier this year, I've been looking for ways to back Riley Nelson led BYU now. I've found one here. Since Nelson took the controls in the 2nd half of their comeback win at home against Utah St a few weeks back, BYU has gone from 100+ in yard per pass attempt to 12th in the country during that span. Nelson's combination of running and passing ability has completely changed their offense, and I think he matches up well against TCU's defense. TCU has improved their numbers since their bad start defensively, but it's mostly because they've been playing the New Mexicos of the world. They are struggling to stop the pass, still ranked 90th. Defensively, BYU is better than most of the teams TCU has played. Throw in the fact that this one is not being played at TCU, but at Jerry's Worls, and I think 13 is way too much. In my opinion, these teams are very evenly matched. I'll definitely take the points here. Hopefully BYU won't muff a punt for a TD, or fumble a couple kickoff returns for scores.
That's it for now. More to come later. Hopefully, I'll have some sort of clue this week.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Week 8 Musings
7-6 again last week keeps us right up there with a coin flip. 49-45-2 for a 52.12% winning percentage. Almost covering the juice!!! It was actually disappointing last week because at 8:00 we were there with a 7-3 record, but sadly, Wazzou became about the 50th consecutive opponent to succumb to the greatness that is Stanford, Florida muffed about 12 punts(seriously) which led to all of Auburn's points, and then in the late nighter, Utah State completely forgot how to play football in the second half against Fresno. So we ended up at 7-6. I probably should have just gone ahead and faded Illinois in the musings, since I had that game pretty much nailed. I should have known the Illini would go into the fetal position and refuse to trust their players ability to complete, or even attempt a pass longer then 3 yards downfield in the first half. Early in the game, it became clear that the coaches knew that the only way Ohio State was going to put up any significant points was if they gave them the ball in the red zone on turnovers. So they trembled with fear at the thought of turning the ball over. What happens when you do that? Yep, you play so tentatively and with such fear that you turn it over anyway. When my son Jeffrey is bringing a glass of milk into the living room, and I don't say anything to him, he comes in, sits down, takes a drink and enjoys his milk. When I tell him, "Be careful Jeffrey, make sure you don't spill that milk", he invariably will spill it, and will fail to enjoy his milk. Same concept. Upon reflection this week, here was the Zooker's quote. ‘‘Ohio State did what they do,’’ Zook said. ‘‘We maybe sat back instead of going after it. I don’t want to say we played tight, but we didn’t play the way we’re capable of playing. Sometimes you want something so bad . . . maybe we [coaches] put too much pressure on [the players].’’ At least he got that right. We'll see where it takes them this week. I'm worried about the Purdue game, but not enough for it to be a musing.
A couple other observations:
1. Rick Neuheisel sealed his fate last night. National TV game against a 1-5 team who just fired their coach and are using Tim Kish as the interim guy, and he gets blown out. It was 42-7 at the half. If that's not bad enough, even when down 35 points, they laid down and couldn't even get anything going offensively against a disinterested defense who was previously ranked 117th in the country in yards per play. If a coach on the hot seat has any chance of survival, his team will come out after getting throttled in the first half and show some pride. Take a look at this drive summary in the second half. http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=201110200057&page=drives. What a bunch of gutless chumps. They should have come out in pink leotards. (Although, in breast cancer awareness month, we may have already seen that somewhere.) Oh, by the way, if I seem extra bitter about this, I had the over (60.5).
2. You may have heard that a couple star players for LSU got suspended for this week's game against Auburn. This is how Less Miles says, "No Comment." http://www.wwltv.com/video/mobile/Les-Miles-Im-not-inclined-to-comment-on-suspensions-132204848.html
Ok...on to this week. It'll be interesting to see if the top teams continue to dominate like they have been in recent weeks. It doesn't matter what the spread is , teams like LSU, Bama, Wisconsin, Stanford, etc have been covering. Now you're seeing lines that are staggering. LSU laying 22 to Auburn for example. Overall, it's a tough card, because college football has been a game of blowouts this year. A lot of these middling teams are just shitting their pants grabbing their ankles. It would be nice if some of them could show a little fight, but I haven't seen much of it this year. Maybe it'll happen this week. I guess we'll see.
1. FRIDAY West Virginia -14 @Syracuse: WV has gotten themselves into a groove, having whacked the past 2 teams they've played(Bowling Green and UCONN) by 30+ points and 300+ plus yards each since they dropped over 500 yards on LSU in September. I think it's safe to say that Holgerson's offense is starting to take shape. Also, after a slow start, the new guys on defense are getting comfortable under outstanding DC Jeff Casteel's scheme, as they have risen up to 12th in the country in yards per play. They roll into Syracuse, who has regressed from the progress they made last year. Although they have the potential to have a pretty good passing attack, they have sputtered offensively against worse defenses than they'll face this week. On defense, they're ranked 86th in passer rating against, and if Rutgers can throw for 288 yards with rotating QB's, what is this WV offense going to do to them. Bad things I'm afraid. Also, WV is 7-3 in it's last 10 Big East roadies, while Syracuse is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home.
2. Kansas St -10 (buy it) @Kansas: Last year, a much worse, especially defensively, K State team went into Lawrence and destroyed Home Run Hire Turner Gill's team by a 59-7 count. Now they come back to the scene of the crime to play their rival again, though this time they are better on both sides of the ball, while KU wallows well below the dregs of college football as indisputably the worst defense in America. To be fair, Kansas has had no breaks in the schedule, so they've been playing blitzkrieg offenses every week, but with the way Colin Klein has been running the ball, it's hard to see KU being able to slow the Cats sown this week. They give up 6.2 yards per carry. How bad is that? Memphis gives up a full yard fewer per play. They're ranked 115th. I'd also say that we have a mammoth coaching advantage in Bill Snyder's favor here. Although Kansas can move the ball a bit, if K State shows up, they shouldn't have any problem. I'd be surprised if that happens, given Snyder's preparation and the fact that this is a big rivalry game for them.
3. Oklahoma St -7 @Missouri: Here's one that I originally would have liked to take the dog, but after further reflection, and seeing as though Okie St always covers as a road favorite, I'm sticking with Gundy. They are now 12-3 in their last 15 in that role. At first glace, Missouri's stats look pretty good, but they are pretty heavily skewed by the mythical ass kicking they gave Western Illinois, in which they outgained the Leathernecks by 700 yards. Once you take that game away, Missouri falls to 76th against the pass. I think Ok State will continue to have success throwing the ball. Mizzou can run it, but I don't think they'll be able to trade scores with the Cowboys here. I'm going to ride these guys until they fail in this role.
4. Wake Forest -3 1/2 @Duke: I feel dirty doing this because it's yet another road favorite, and a public one at that(aren't they all), but Duke is terrible in this role, having failed to cover both times this year and falling to 16-32 in the past 10 years as a home dog. Wake has been pretty good defensively this year, while Duke has not. Both offenses are capable, but Wake has a big edge on the defensive side of the ball. Wake should be able to throw at will on Duke. Duke also generally loses the turnover battle, and that would be the only way I can see them hanging with Wake here. They'd probably be better off if this game was in Winston Salem.
5. Auburn +21 @LSU: Auburn is not a great team, but they have been scrappy this year, and have proven that they figure out ways to stay in games. I was surprised that they played as well as they did last week at home against Florida. They held the Gators to less than 200 yards of total offense, which is pretty impressive, considering the abuse their defense has taken. Now LSU catches them in a look ahead situation with a couple guys suspended. It's a day game in Baton Rouge, where the Tigers have struggled to get lubed up in the past. They are also going to be without their unquestioned leader, Tyrann Mathieu, among others for engaging in various depraved acts. If Auburn can manage a couple scores, I think they can keep this one a game, as it appears to me to be as good a chance for a shitty effort from LSU as any week this year. Hugely inflated spread.
6. East Carolina +11.5 @Navy: Once again we find Navy in a role for which they are ill-suited. Significant home favorite. They dropped 76 on ECU last year at ECU, but they were in a dog role there, and ECU still put up just as many yards as they did. I think Navy, although likely to move the ball easily, will have just as much trouble getting their defense off the field, as ECU's passing game has hit it's stride the past couple of weeks after struggling at the beginning of the year. They've also been better on defense this year, while Navy 105th overall and 110th against the pass. They will see a steady diet of short tosses in this one. It will be hard for them to cover double digits as a result, especially when they're 3-8 as a DD home favorite in the last 5 years.
7. @Colorado +31 v Oregon: Ok, Colorado, I've already advocated throwing you out of the Pac 10 for not covering 30+ at Stanford, now you are a 31 point dog, at home against Oregon. Can you even show up? Show some pride? Seriously, although they are going to be without some major pieces due to injury, this spread is crazy. Although LaMichael James's injury isn't a big deal because they have a platoon of similar jitterbug speed merchants waiting to fill in, QB Darron Thomas's injury is a big deal. Nobody knows if he is going to play or not after he hurt his knee last week, but he claims that he will. They don't have another QB on the roster who has taken a meaningful snap, and I can't see any reason to risk playing the guy in a game like this. Even if he does play, you would think that they would be pretty careful with him once they get ahead. Colorado has been blown out this year by good teams, but you have to think that they'llbe able to put up a fight at home. Can I hope for 41-13?
8. Georgia Tech +3 @Miami(FL): Georgia tech has apparently gone from world beater to a bunch of dorks in a week, as they are now dogged against a 3-3 Miami team that is ranked 85th in the country in yards per play against. I agree that the Canes have looked impressive the past two weeks, but I wouldn't get too excited about last week. They rode some nice fortune to jump out to a 27-3 lead against North Carolina, then got dominated in the second half and almost blew it on a last second Hail Mary. Now they face a GT team that is pissed off after blowing things last week, and one that is capable of dissecting them into a million pieces. The spread is where it is because Miami has looked good on offense, and GT has always struggled to stop good attacks, but GT is better this year on that side of the ball, and very opportunistic. Jacory Harris has avoided turnovers lately, but let's just say he is overdue for some pick 6s. Lots of value on GT here coming off their bad performance last week. Not much of a home field advantage for Miami here during the day in that stadium either.
9. Army +11 @ Vanderbilt: Despite the fact that Vandy is definitely improved and appears to be on the upswing with the new coaching regime, the fact remains that they generally cannot score. They put up 28 on Georgia last week, but one of the scores came on special teams, and another came on a halfback option pass. they remain 115th out of 120 in total offense, and both of these teams are going to be keeping the ball on the ground for the most part. Army is a methodical bunch. Although Vandy has been good on defense, Army is averaging 400+ yards and ranks 38th in total offense. I don't think Vandy can cover this line without at least 1 defense or special teams score, and Army's defense has been opportunistic as well. They also are much better in this role, and Vandy is definitely not used to it.
10. @Michigan St +7 v Wisconsin: Everyone knows what a juggernaut Wisconsin has been, but they really haven't been tested, and this is their first road game of the year. MSU is no joke on defense. Individually, I still wonder how Wisconsin does it. We know about Russell Wilson, but their receivers are nothing special(Nick Toon is not full strength), and Montee Ball and James White look like system guys. MSU held them under 300 yards last year, and the Spartans are leaps and bounds better on defense than they were last year. I also saw Indiana's running back run very successfully all day on the Badgers last week, believe it or not. (7.10 per carry). If they face an offense that doesn't show up scared shitless and actually moves the ball, we might see a different outcome.
11. Utah +2 @ Cal: At this point, I am ditching the "Home Cal/Road Cal" dynamic for the season, as Cal played like a bunch of idiots last Thursday night at home against USC. Plus, as we know, they are playing their home games at Pac Bell Park in San Francisco. In this matchup. I just think Utah is the better team. They are both struggling on offense, but Utah is vastly superior to Cal on defense, and I think Utah will be able to run on the Cal defense. Utah is ranked 16th in total defense and is coming off a dominating effort at Pitt last week. Although I think he's a complete asshole, Kyle Whittingham knows what he's doing. Over the past 2-3 years, the same can't be said for former golden boy Jeff Tedford at Cal.
12. Washington St -3 v Oregon St: This game is being played in Seattle, so it won't be a true home game for the Cougs. They are coming off a rough outing last week, having been the latest to be mesmerized by the greatness that is Stanford. However, they'll get some nice class relief here, as Oregon State has been having all kinds of trouble stopping people this year, especially away from home. The Cougs sport the country's 17th best pass offense while the Beavs are stuck at 104th against the pass. Defensively, WSU won't be overmatched because the Beavs are not a very efficient outfit on that side of the ball either. On a neutral site, I make the Cougs a TD favorite in this one, and it's going to be more of a home game for WSU than it will be for the Beavs. laying only 3 against this Oregon St away from Corvalis is definitely a bargain.
Others: I originally liked UNC (+10.5) a lot, but there is some question about some of their guys being injured, so I'm cooling on it. But they are a good offense, had a deceiving score last week, and I think they match up with Clemson....Arkansas (-15) heads to Oxford to take on Houston Nutt in his swan song. Ole Miss is brutal in every facet..ranked worse than 100th in every conceivable category, offensively and defensively. However, their schedule has been brutal, especially with solid defenses, so there's a chance they find some class relief with the Hogs, who really struggle against the run. I can't see Ole Miss being in the game though, so I think the Hogs will cover....I'll be on Air Force (+30) because that spread is ridiculous. Air Force is too good a program to be getting that many, and this is the first time Boise has seen them. Having said that, Air Force is allowing 73% completions this year. Kellen Moore might not throw an incompletion, so it's only a mild endorsement...Ohio U(-14) is coming off a loss, but gets Akron this week. No better way to make things right again with the world than a tilt with the Zips...I have a hunch that Iowa State(+21) makes a game of it with A&M. They were as bad as they can be last weel in Columbia, but they've shown some moxie under Paul Rhoads. 21 is a lot to cover for A&M....I really wanted to bet against NC State heavy this week because they stink against the run(and the pass) and Virginia(-5.5) has been a tough team to play against for foes this year. However, the spot is bad for Virginia off the big GT win last week and a bye for NC State. All things being equal though, the weak kneed play of NC State has me expecting a comfy victory for the Cavaliers....that's it for now. Have a good week!
A couple other observations:
1. Rick Neuheisel sealed his fate last night. National TV game against a 1-5 team who just fired their coach and are using Tim Kish as the interim guy, and he gets blown out. It was 42-7 at the half. If that's not bad enough, even when down 35 points, they laid down and couldn't even get anything going offensively against a disinterested defense who was previously ranked 117th in the country in yards per play. If a coach on the hot seat has any chance of survival, his team will come out after getting throttled in the first half and show some pride. Take a look at this drive summary in the second half. http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=201110200057&page=drives. What a bunch of gutless chumps. They should have come out in pink leotards. (Although, in breast cancer awareness month, we may have already seen that somewhere.) Oh, by the way, if I seem extra bitter about this, I had the over (60.5).
2. You may have heard that a couple star players for LSU got suspended for this week's game against Auburn. This is how Less Miles says, "No Comment." http://www.wwltv.com/video/mobile/Les-Miles-Im-not-inclined-to-comment-on-suspensions-132204848.html
Ok...on to this week. It'll be interesting to see if the top teams continue to dominate like they have been in recent weeks. It doesn't matter what the spread is , teams like LSU, Bama, Wisconsin, Stanford, etc have been covering. Now you're seeing lines that are staggering. LSU laying 22 to Auburn for example. Overall, it's a tough card, because college football has been a game of blowouts this year. A lot of these middling teams are just shitting their pants grabbing their ankles. It would be nice if some of them could show a little fight, but I haven't seen much of it this year. Maybe it'll happen this week. I guess we'll see.
1. FRIDAY West Virginia -14 @Syracuse: WV has gotten themselves into a groove, having whacked the past 2 teams they've played(Bowling Green and UCONN) by 30+ points and 300+ plus yards each since they dropped over 500 yards on LSU in September. I think it's safe to say that Holgerson's offense is starting to take shape. Also, after a slow start, the new guys on defense are getting comfortable under outstanding DC Jeff Casteel's scheme, as they have risen up to 12th in the country in yards per play. They roll into Syracuse, who has regressed from the progress they made last year. Although they have the potential to have a pretty good passing attack, they have sputtered offensively against worse defenses than they'll face this week. On defense, they're ranked 86th in passer rating against, and if Rutgers can throw for 288 yards with rotating QB's, what is this WV offense going to do to them. Bad things I'm afraid. Also, WV is 7-3 in it's last 10 Big East roadies, while Syracuse is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home.
2. Kansas St -10 (buy it) @Kansas: Last year, a much worse, especially defensively, K State team went into Lawrence and destroyed Home Run Hire Turner Gill's team by a 59-7 count. Now they come back to the scene of the crime to play their rival again, though this time they are better on both sides of the ball, while KU wallows well below the dregs of college football as indisputably the worst defense in America. To be fair, Kansas has had no breaks in the schedule, so they've been playing blitzkrieg offenses every week, but with the way Colin Klein has been running the ball, it's hard to see KU being able to slow the Cats sown this week. They give up 6.2 yards per carry. How bad is that? Memphis gives up a full yard fewer per play. They're ranked 115th. I'd also say that we have a mammoth coaching advantage in Bill Snyder's favor here. Although Kansas can move the ball a bit, if K State shows up, they shouldn't have any problem. I'd be surprised if that happens, given Snyder's preparation and the fact that this is a big rivalry game for them.
3. Oklahoma St -7 @Missouri: Here's one that I originally would have liked to take the dog, but after further reflection, and seeing as though Okie St always covers as a road favorite, I'm sticking with Gundy. They are now 12-3 in their last 15 in that role. At first glace, Missouri's stats look pretty good, but they are pretty heavily skewed by the mythical ass kicking they gave Western Illinois, in which they outgained the Leathernecks by 700 yards. Once you take that game away, Missouri falls to 76th against the pass. I think Ok State will continue to have success throwing the ball. Mizzou can run it, but I don't think they'll be able to trade scores with the Cowboys here. I'm going to ride these guys until they fail in this role.
4. Wake Forest -3 1/2 @Duke: I feel dirty doing this because it's yet another road favorite, and a public one at that(aren't they all), but Duke is terrible in this role, having failed to cover both times this year and falling to 16-32 in the past 10 years as a home dog. Wake has been pretty good defensively this year, while Duke has not. Both offenses are capable, but Wake has a big edge on the defensive side of the ball. Wake should be able to throw at will on Duke. Duke also generally loses the turnover battle, and that would be the only way I can see them hanging with Wake here. They'd probably be better off if this game was in Winston Salem.
5. Auburn +21 @LSU: Auburn is not a great team, but they have been scrappy this year, and have proven that they figure out ways to stay in games. I was surprised that they played as well as they did last week at home against Florida. They held the Gators to less than 200 yards of total offense, which is pretty impressive, considering the abuse their defense has taken. Now LSU catches them in a look ahead situation with a couple guys suspended. It's a day game in Baton Rouge, where the Tigers have struggled to get lubed up in the past. They are also going to be without their unquestioned leader, Tyrann Mathieu, among others for engaging in various depraved acts. If Auburn can manage a couple scores, I think they can keep this one a game, as it appears to me to be as good a chance for a shitty effort from LSU as any week this year. Hugely inflated spread.
6. East Carolina +11.5 @Navy: Once again we find Navy in a role for which they are ill-suited. Significant home favorite. They dropped 76 on ECU last year at ECU, but they were in a dog role there, and ECU still put up just as many yards as they did. I think Navy, although likely to move the ball easily, will have just as much trouble getting their defense off the field, as ECU's passing game has hit it's stride the past couple of weeks after struggling at the beginning of the year. They've also been better on defense this year, while Navy 105th overall and 110th against the pass. They will see a steady diet of short tosses in this one. It will be hard for them to cover double digits as a result, especially when they're 3-8 as a DD home favorite in the last 5 years.
7. @Colorado +31 v Oregon: Ok, Colorado, I've already advocated throwing you out of the Pac 10 for not covering 30+ at Stanford, now you are a 31 point dog, at home against Oregon. Can you even show up? Show some pride? Seriously, although they are going to be without some major pieces due to injury, this spread is crazy. Although LaMichael James's injury isn't a big deal because they have a platoon of similar jitterbug speed merchants waiting to fill in, QB Darron Thomas's injury is a big deal. Nobody knows if he is going to play or not after he hurt his knee last week, but he claims that he will. They don't have another QB on the roster who has taken a meaningful snap, and I can't see any reason to risk playing the guy in a game like this. Even if he does play, you would think that they would be pretty careful with him once they get ahead. Colorado has been blown out this year by good teams, but you have to think that they'llbe able to put up a fight at home. Can I hope for 41-13?
8. Georgia Tech +3 @Miami(FL): Georgia tech has apparently gone from world beater to a bunch of dorks in a week, as they are now dogged against a 3-3 Miami team that is ranked 85th in the country in yards per play against. I agree that the Canes have looked impressive the past two weeks, but I wouldn't get too excited about last week. They rode some nice fortune to jump out to a 27-3 lead against North Carolina, then got dominated in the second half and almost blew it on a last second Hail Mary. Now they face a GT team that is pissed off after blowing things last week, and one that is capable of dissecting them into a million pieces. The spread is where it is because Miami has looked good on offense, and GT has always struggled to stop good attacks, but GT is better this year on that side of the ball, and very opportunistic. Jacory Harris has avoided turnovers lately, but let's just say he is overdue for some pick 6s. Lots of value on GT here coming off their bad performance last week. Not much of a home field advantage for Miami here during the day in that stadium either.
9. Army +11 @ Vanderbilt: Despite the fact that Vandy is definitely improved and appears to be on the upswing with the new coaching regime, the fact remains that they generally cannot score. They put up 28 on Georgia last week, but one of the scores came on special teams, and another came on a halfback option pass. they remain 115th out of 120 in total offense, and both of these teams are going to be keeping the ball on the ground for the most part. Army is a methodical bunch. Although Vandy has been good on defense, Army is averaging 400+ yards and ranks 38th in total offense. I don't think Vandy can cover this line without at least 1 defense or special teams score, and Army's defense has been opportunistic as well. They also are much better in this role, and Vandy is definitely not used to it.
10. @Michigan St +7 v Wisconsin: Everyone knows what a juggernaut Wisconsin has been, but they really haven't been tested, and this is their first road game of the year. MSU is no joke on defense. Individually, I still wonder how Wisconsin does it. We know about Russell Wilson, but their receivers are nothing special(Nick Toon is not full strength), and Montee Ball and James White look like system guys. MSU held them under 300 yards last year, and the Spartans are leaps and bounds better on defense than they were last year. I also saw Indiana's running back run very successfully all day on the Badgers last week, believe it or not. (7.10 per carry). If they face an offense that doesn't show up scared shitless and actually moves the ball, we might see a different outcome.
11. Utah +2 @ Cal: At this point, I am ditching the "Home Cal/Road Cal" dynamic for the season, as Cal played like a bunch of idiots last Thursday night at home against USC. Plus, as we know, they are playing their home games at Pac Bell Park in San Francisco. In this matchup. I just think Utah is the better team. They are both struggling on offense, but Utah is vastly superior to Cal on defense, and I think Utah will be able to run on the Cal defense. Utah is ranked 16th in total defense and is coming off a dominating effort at Pitt last week. Although I think he's a complete asshole, Kyle Whittingham knows what he's doing. Over the past 2-3 years, the same can't be said for former golden boy Jeff Tedford at Cal.
12. Washington St -3 v Oregon St: This game is being played in Seattle, so it won't be a true home game for the Cougs. They are coming off a rough outing last week, having been the latest to be mesmerized by the greatness that is Stanford. However, they'll get some nice class relief here, as Oregon State has been having all kinds of trouble stopping people this year, especially away from home. The Cougs sport the country's 17th best pass offense while the Beavs are stuck at 104th against the pass. Defensively, WSU won't be overmatched because the Beavs are not a very efficient outfit on that side of the ball either. On a neutral site, I make the Cougs a TD favorite in this one, and it's going to be more of a home game for WSU than it will be for the Beavs. laying only 3 against this Oregon St away from Corvalis is definitely a bargain.
Others: I originally liked UNC (+10.5) a lot, but there is some question about some of their guys being injured, so I'm cooling on it. But they are a good offense, had a deceiving score last week, and I think they match up with Clemson....Arkansas (-15) heads to Oxford to take on Houston Nutt in his swan song. Ole Miss is brutal in every facet..ranked worse than 100th in every conceivable category, offensively and defensively. However, their schedule has been brutal, especially with solid defenses, so there's a chance they find some class relief with the Hogs, who really struggle against the run. I can't see Ole Miss being in the game though, so I think the Hogs will cover....I'll be on Air Force (+30) because that spread is ridiculous. Air Force is too good a program to be getting that many, and this is the first time Boise has seen them. Having said that, Air Force is allowing 73% completions this year. Kellen Moore might not throw an incompletion, so it's only a mild endorsement...Ohio U(-14) is coming off a loss, but gets Akron this week. No better way to make things right again with the world than a tilt with the Zips...I have a hunch that Iowa State(+21) makes a game of it with A&M. They were as bad as they can be last weel in Columbia, but they've shown some moxie under Paul Rhoads. 21 is a lot to cover for A&M....I really wanted to bet against NC State heavy this week because they stink against the run(and the pass) and Virginia(-5.5) has been a tough team to play against for foes this year. However, the spot is bad for Virginia off the big GT win last week and a bye for NC State. All things being equal though, the weak kneed play of NC State has me expecting a comfy victory for the Cavaliers....that's it for now. Have a good week!
Friday, October 14, 2011
Week 7 Musings
Ho Hum week last week, as the numbered musings went 7-6. That brings the overall record to 42-39-2, for a 51.9% percentage. At least it's on the right side of 50%, but that ain't saying much. it also doesn't give much wiggle room in the event we have the obligatory disaster week of 4-8 or something. Well...we'll see what happens. By the way, a couple of nice games I tried to steer you to. It took all of about 30 seconds for any competent observer to determine that Texas was definitely NOT the correct side to be on in the Red River Shootout. Had Oklahoma taken a knee on every snap on offense, they would have won 21-17. And here I thought Mack Brown would have his charges ready. Mack Brown can go and have relations with himself. I also made a suggestion that it might be a good idea to back the Kentucky Wildcats and their brainiac of a coach, Joker Phillips.Well, that didn't go too well,. I asked if South Carolina can score 21 points and the answer to that was a resounding "YES" as they chalked up 54. Apparently, my assertion that Kentucky had an "adequate defense" was misguided.
Another interesting game from last week was the Nevada/UNLV game. Nevada turned the ball over 5 times, and still won the game 37-0. They outgained UNLV 699-110. UNLV QB Caleb Herring, a week after tossing three pick 6s to Southern Utah of all people, put up a passing line of 1-14 for 7 yards. I think it's still safe to say that UNLV is struggling on the road. Just a hunch, but you might see me on the other side when the Rebs are on the road.
Big game for the Illini this week. They're 6-0 and I have to say that I am completely unfamiliar with this territory for them. We normally play a logically devoid non-conference schedule that usually yields neither wins nor big ticket opponents. Our NC schedule is usually littered with very dangerous opponents who offer no cache if you actually beat them, and lots of times, we go on the road to play them. This year has been different, hence the undefeated record. Ohio St comes to town, who we have not beaten since our freshman year in college in Champaign(strangely, we've beaten them 5 times in Columbus during that span), and even though it's not your older brother's Ohio St, it's still a big game. I won't be playing it, but I can see why OSU is a dog in this case. Give the Illini credit, they are pretty strong in all areas other than special teams. They've stopped the run(9th), they're ok against the pass(32), they lead the nation in sacks, and they are balanced on offense. The problem is that I think OSU will easily be the best defense they've played, and I've seen our offensive line get manhandled by Northwestern's D line, and ASU kept us from a first down for most of the second half. That doesn't bode well with OSU coming to town. I think Scheelhaase will have to throw effectively on them. We scored 17 on ASU...that's about what you can expect in this one. Offensively, I'll be surprised if OSU cracks 250 total yards, so 17 should be enough, I just worry that a special teams score or a killer turnover will make this one a "misleading score". I guess I lean to the under here. Illinois football has been remarkably consistent with one thing. Right when the fanbase starts to get excited, they'll fuck things up. Sometimes it's not they're fault, sometimes it is...I guess I'm just waiting for the shoe to drop so we can go back to not having any true emotional involvement in th college football season.
On to the week.....though I must say one more thing. I did not consider any MAC games this week, no matter how juicy they looked. 0-2 in MAC mentions last week, and 7-13 on the year, so I'm done with those teams. Also, I hate myself for doing this, but I like a lot of favorites this week. Don't think that I didn't notice.
1. @Wisconsin -39.5 v Indiana: This one is pretty simple. Wisconsin will win this game by however many points they feel like winning it by. Indiana has no say in things. They are merely a bystander, playing the part of the kid in the school play who forgets his line and wets his pants on stage. I could explain why this is reality, but I don't suspect anyone needs any explanation. We are now in week 7, and Wisconsin has not even broken a sweat. They've probably run 4 different plays all year, because that's all they've had to run. Indiana played Illinois last week, and got destroyed even though Illinois tried like hell to keep them in the game for the entire first quarter. One of the "bright spots" for Iu was that during garbage time, they used a true freshman at QB, and in between laughably feeble attempts to throw the ball, he looked somewhat shifty while getting sacked. This has excited the Hoosier faithful, who now think they have the second coming of Antwaan Randle El. So there is pressure to start him and begin a new era of completely incompetent football. So imagine....a true freshman QB starting on National TV in Madison, with all his effeminate IU buddies there to "have his back". Destruction. Let's also remember that Bret Bielema seems to enjoy scoring as much as possible. Witness the 83 he put up on this same collection of misfits last year. They need style points. I'm going to say this one ends up at 77-7. Maybe even 91-13.
2. Baylor +9 @Texas A&M: Not a huge fan of going with the public on a road dog here, but I have really lost faith in A&M. I like A&M, I really do, and I want them to do well, so if they cover this good for them, but the matchup doesn't look good. It's tough to cover a sizable number, even at home, when you will have loads of trouble stopping the other team. I think that's going to be the case here, as Baylor has the most efficient passing attack in the country while A&M is ranked 84th, despite leading the country in sacks per game. That tells me that if you get the pass off, bad things happen for Aggies. In addition, Baylor is ranked 8th in yards per carry, and A&M has given up 100 yards+ to almost all of the decent RBs they've faced. On the flip side, A&M should be able to run all over Baylor, but to me, this looks like a game that comes down to the wire, with A&M being somewhat fragile given their previous second half collapses this year. I'll take the 9.
3. Navy +4 @Rutgers: One of these days, Rutgers's house of cards is going to come crashing down. They appear to be incapable of gaining better than 4,5 yards per play in any game, yet here they are 4-1 and perfect against the spread for the year. Last week, they managed to blow out Pitt despite not cracking 300 total yards, converting 3 of 15 3rd downs and having their QB complete 40% of his throws. If you take away a 60 yard busted play screen pass, they had 3.45 yards per play. For comparison's sake, the worst offenses in the country over the past 3 years averaged 4.0, 3.9. 3.6 and 3.5 yards per play for the year. Now they face Navy, whose big weakness is defense. Big class relief here for them on that side of the ball, and as we all know, they are covering machines in this role (19-6). I'm betting that the Rutgers joy ride ends this week.
4. @Michigan St -2.5 v Michigan: The more I read about this game, the more I see people climbing on the Michigan bandwagon. Many people are pointing out the common opponent between these two(ND) and that Michigan beat them while MSU took it on the chin. Truthfully, save the miraculous comeback in which Notre Dame gagged on their tater tots, Michigan's offense did mostly nothing in that game. On the flip side, MSU's defense held ND to 275 total yards. While I am not surprised that Michigan has gotten off to this start, and I think they'll end up having a very nice year, this looks like a bad matchup for them to me. First of all, this will be, by leaps and bounds, the best defense they have faced this year, and it will come on the road, only the second time they've ventured out so far. It can be pointed out that MSU has not faced anyone like DRob and the Michigan offense and that would be true, but they faced him last year in the Big House, under an offense that was completely geared toward his strengths. In that game, as a 5 point dog MSU held Michigan 17 points and one of their lowest yardage outputs of the year. DRob also tossed them 3 picks, something he hasn't avoided this year so far either. If MSU starts getting penetration and starts disrupting things(as #1 ranked defenses tend to do), it might be a long day if Michigan needs to throw to move the ball. On the flip side, I think MSU is more than capable of moving the ball, especially through the air with Cousins. Also don't forget that DRob has a history of getting injured in Big Ten games...definitely a concern for the Wolverines here. I think it'll be back to drawing board for Brady Hoke and co after this one.
5. @North Carolina -3 v Miami: I've been wrong on some ACC games this year that I've loved(VT/Clemson comes to mind) so I might be wrong here, but as Charles Barkley would say, "I doubt it." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIPapliRgQY. (Sorry for that ridiculous interlude). Miami comes in off a very tough loss at VT where they hung in and looked good, especially on offense. Unfortunately, they gave up 38 points to a previously inept VT offense and are currently ranked 97th in yards per play on defense, 103rd against the run and 89th against the pass. They are now going back on the road to face a very balanced offense in UNC, one who sleepwalked through their home game last week and will be ready to redeem themselves in front of the home folks. Miami has to go back on the road for another toughie, and we can certainly expect our pal Jacory Harris to throw it to the Heels at least twice.As long as Brynn Renner(and trust me, I am not excited about counting on determined play from a kid whose name elicits visions of a douchebag)avoids turning the ball over at an alarming rate, I think the Heels get the job done here.
6. @Wyoming -10.5 v UNLV: This should be an auto play for anyone, considering what I wrote above. Also consider that afrer the Reno game, UNLV is now 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog. Actually, Wyoming isn't as bad as their game last week with Utah St either..I kind of like their young QB, they can throw it around a bit. Not that it matters. UNLV on the road is an auto fade. They haven't come within 28 points of anybody on the road since early 2009. Take a look at their road performances over the past 2+ years. Lots of 59-7s in there.
7. @Tulane -1 v UTEP: I hope I'm not asking too much from Tulane to simply win a home game against a team that has won 5 road games in 5 years, and only 2 against teams not from New Mexico. Tulane has been somewhat explosive on offense, having piled up 471 yards on Syracuse last week and 550 on the road at UAB a couple weeks before that. UTEP comes in ranked 116th in yards per play against on defense. Offensively, they are not great either, as it appears to me that Tulane will have the edge on that side of the ball as well. On paper, Tulane looks like about a 10 point favorite to me, so only a complete shit the bed performance will keep them from a victory here.
8. Oklahoma St -7 @Texas: You might be thinking, "What's up with this moron. Last week, he loved 10 points with Texas against Oklahoma but now he DOESN'T like a TD at home against a lesser opponent?" Ok, I will admit, this is a departure from what I thought last week. But consider: If I am a rape victim who had a rough go of it in what I considered a clearly inviting dark alley last week, am I going to enter a slightly less dark alley this week? No, I am not..I have changed my mind about dark alleys. Also, Oklahoma State is a runaway freight train as a road favorite, having gone 11-3 in that role under Gundy, who I am slowly starting to consider one of the best coaches in the country. On the other hand, Texas is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Also, although Oklahoma never needed to even send their offense on the field, they merely toyed with Texas's secondary, and Texas is ranked 98th in the country in sacks...not a good proposition when facing the Pokes pass offense. Texas might have a little easier sledding against Okie St's defense, but if they don't run effectively, I don't see the Horns being able to trade scores with Okie St. Texas is going to have a hard time keeping this one close in my opinion.
9. LSU -17 v Tennessee: Tennessee's only chance in this one is to hope that they can hold LSU down in the low 20's because they aren't going to score on LSU, especially without their QB Tyler Bray, now injured, who I think is a pretty good player. Even with him, Georgia held them to 12 and very little success, so I would think LSU will be thinking offense on defense. They certainly will not be giving up anything significant as long as they are motivated. Defensively, Tennessee is ranked 73rd in the country..not impressive by any stretch, and don't look now, but LSU is getting to be pretty explosive on offense now that they have developed some playmakers at WR, ranking in the top 25 in passer rating and yards per attempt. I'd also expect a couple defensive or ST scores from LSU here..looks like a 38-7 type game to me. Coming off the big home win over Florida last week, I actually like them better on the road than if this game was a day game in Baton Rouge.
10. Alabama - whatever (26.5??) @Mississippi: Ole Miss has no shot of scoring on Alabama..they're ranked 103rd in total offense. They are also ranked 90th against the run, which is terrible news if you have designs on keeping Trent Richardson from steamrolling you all night. This is one of those games that Bama would win by 21 if they never took the defense off the field. 44-0. I hate doing this, but this year, it seems all you have to do is bet on a top10 favorite, then sit back and count your money. That'll probably change in a couple weeks though.
11. Florida -2 @Auburn: Everyone is on Auburn...especially "the experts" but in my opinion, Florida's got the edge here. They've been blown out the last two weeks, but that was obviously against the two best teams in the country, and the two best defenses by a mile. Now they get class relief against an Auburn defense that everyone knows leaves something to be desired. Although the QB situation is in a flux, I think they'll have success running the ball against that defense. Auburn is actually on a bit of a downward spiral right now, as the natives are getting restless with starting QB Barrett Trotter. He'll start this week, but he might not last long. Defensively, Florida remains a solid group, and Auburn has surprisingly fallen to 71st in the country in offense(ypp). They can't throw the ball at all, and I think Florida will be ready to take care of their running game. Florida seems to have the edge on both sides of the coin here, and by a big margin. It'll be tough to win a night game at Auburn, but I think they are the better team and are due for a good performance.
12. @Washington St +21 v Stanford: It's been a death sentence to go against top 10 teams when favored this year, but something's gotta give at some point. Stanford has struggled somewhat against the pass, and I think, especially at home in what has to be their biggest home game in several years, Wazzou will have some success there. Defensively, Wazzou has been compeititive, and Stanford has played absolutely zero decent defensive teams, so I think they might be a little overrated on offense. At some point, Stanford is not going to have every break go their way. Hell, I don't need them to lose, I just need them to win 40-20. I like this Washington St team offensively..I think they can puit up enough points to stay in this game.
13. Utah St -3 @Fresno: Even though Fresno is dogged in this game, there is little likelihood that they get excited to play Utah St, while the Aggies will be licking their chops at a shot at Fresno, a team that has handled them easily in recent years. On paper, this is a mismatch, as Fresno is giving up gobs of yards on defense, especially in the running game, where Utah St excels. Also, Utah St has been stout on defense, and Fresno has yet to get things going with new QB Derek Carr. Utah State is a solid squad. They should have beaten both Auburn and BYU on the road and despite playing a good schedule, they are ranked 9th nationally in ypp on offense and 16th in ypp on defense. Fresno gave up 38 points and 445 yards at home to Ole Miss for crying out loud. Utah St is by far the better squad here.
Others: (All of these were close to being numbereds, but you have to cut somewhere) Lean to Utah(+6.5) to cover a decent sized spread in a game that will probably be very low scoring. First road start for the new Utah Qb who has had turnover problems, but Utah is the much better defense...Also lean to Louisville (+17) in their game in Cincy. They are good defensively and have had some success in the passing game. They've also had a knack for staying in games they don't belong under Charlie Strong, while also losing games they should win. They are much more comfortable in this role....Just a hunch, but I think Mississippi St(+3.5), who has been quietly waiting for South Carolina to come to town amid all the Garcia turmoil in Columbia this week, knocks off the Cocks. I'm skeptical that Connor Shaw is as good as he showed last week, and I think the Gamecocks drop a clunker off their domination of Kentucky....Almost went with UCF (+3.5) as a numbered because I think their pass defense will shut down SMU. June Jones is also 1-9-1 as a home favorite, but I was looking for a little more breathing room on that spread. Plus, I hate betting against RB Zack Line. UCF may win outright anyway though.... Boise (-31) will probably destroy Colorado St.....I think Wake (+6.5) is for real, but I don't like the spot for them coming off the Florida State win. Wake has been good on both sides of the ball, so I think they can have success against VT, but I wanted more than a TD....I think pat Fitzgerald will get a good performance out of the Cats (+6) this week at Iowa. they are so bad defensively that I would need more than a TD here, but I think they will move the ball rather easily on Iowa through the air. Kind of a bad spot for the Hawkeyes here. Despite what they've done this year, you still need a determined performance to knock off the Cats, and road dog is a good role for them.....I think Oregon(-14.5) is going to kill Arizona St. ASU handled them well in Tempe last year, but still managed to find a way to lose by DD. I think Oregon will have the better of the scrimmaging this year, even though LaMichael James is out. I'd like to see ASU hang with them though, because that's Illinois good win on the year. That's it for this week....Take care!!!!!!!!!!!!
Another interesting game from last week was the Nevada/UNLV game. Nevada turned the ball over 5 times, and still won the game 37-0. They outgained UNLV 699-110. UNLV QB Caleb Herring, a week after tossing three pick 6s to Southern Utah of all people, put up a passing line of 1-14 for 7 yards. I think it's still safe to say that UNLV is struggling on the road. Just a hunch, but you might see me on the other side when the Rebs are on the road.
Big game for the Illini this week. They're 6-0 and I have to say that I am completely unfamiliar with this territory for them. We normally play a logically devoid non-conference schedule that usually yields neither wins nor big ticket opponents. Our NC schedule is usually littered with very dangerous opponents who offer no cache if you actually beat them, and lots of times, we go on the road to play them. This year has been different, hence the undefeated record. Ohio St comes to town, who we have not beaten since our freshman year in college in Champaign(strangely, we've beaten them 5 times in Columbus during that span), and even though it's not your older brother's Ohio St, it's still a big game. I won't be playing it, but I can see why OSU is a dog in this case. Give the Illini credit, they are pretty strong in all areas other than special teams. They've stopped the run(9th), they're ok against the pass(32), they lead the nation in sacks, and they are balanced on offense. The problem is that I think OSU will easily be the best defense they've played, and I've seen our offensive line get manhandled by Northwestern's D line, and ASU kept us from a first down for most of the second half. That doesn't bode well with OSU coming to town. I think Scheelhaase will have to throw effectively on them. We scored 17 on ASU...that's about what you can expect in this one. Offensively, I'll be surprised if OSU cracks 250 total yards, so 17 should be enough, I just worry that a special teams score or a killer turnover will make this one a "misleading score". I guess I lean to the under here. Illinois football has been remarkably consistent with one thing. Right when the fanbase starts to get excited, they'll fuck things up. Sometimes it's not they're fault, sometimes it is...I guess I'm just waiting for the shoe to drop so we can go back to not having any true emotional involvement in th college football season.
On to the week.....though I must say one more thing. I did not consider any MAC games this week, no matter how juicy they looked. 0-2 in MAC mentions last week, and 7-13 on the year, so I'm done with those teams. Also, I hate myself for doing this, but I like a lot of favorites this week. Don't think that I didn't notice.
1. @Wisconsin -39.5 v Indiana: This one is pretty simple. Wisconsin will win this game by however many points they feel like winning it by. Indiana has no say in things. They are merely a bystander, playing the part of the kid in the school play who forgets his line and wets his pants on stage. I could explain why this is reality, but I don't suspect anyone needs any explanation. We are now in week 7, and Wisconsin has not even broken a sweat. They've probably run 4 different plays all year, because that's all they've had to run. Indiana played Illinois last week, and got destroyed even though Illinois tried like hell to keep them in the game for the entire first quarter. One of the "bright spots" for Iu was that during garbage time, they used a true freshman at QB, and in between laughably feeble attempts to throw the ball, he looked somewhat shifty while getting sacked. This has excited the Hoosier faithful, who now think they have the second coming of Antwaan Randle El. So there is pressure to start him and begin a new era of completely incompetent football. So imagine....a true freshman QB starting on National TV in Madison, with all his effeminate IU buddies there to "have his back". Destruction. Let's also remember that Bret Bielema seems to enjoy scoring as much as possible. Witness the 83 he put up on this same collection of misfits last year. They need style points. I'm going to say this one ends up at 77-7. Maybe even 91-13.
2. Baylor +9 @Texas A&M: Not a huge fan of going with the public on a road dog here, but I have really lost faith in A&M. I like A&M, I really do, and I want them to do well, so if they cover this good for them, but the matchup doesn't look good. It's tough to cover a sizable number, even at home, when you will have loads of trouble stopping the other team. I think that's going to be the case here, as Baylor has the most efficient passing attack in the country while A&M is ranked 84th, despite leading the country in sacks per game. That tells me that if you get the pass off, bad things happen for Aggies. In addition, Baylor is ranked 8th in yards per carry, and A&M has given up 100 yards+ to almost all of the decent RBs they've faced. On the flip side, A&M should be able to run all over Baylor, but to me, this looks like a game that comes down to the wire, with A&M being somewhat fragile given their previous second half collapses this year. I'll take the 9.
3. Navy +4 @Rutgers: One of these days, Rutgers's house of cards is going to come crashing down. They appear to be incapable of gaining better than 4,5 yards per play in any game, yet here they are 4-1 and perfect against the spread for the year. Last week, they managed to blow out Pitt despite not cracking 300 total yards, converting 3 of 15 3rd downs and having their QB complete 40% of his throws. If you take away a 60 yard busted play screen pass, they had 3.45 yards per play. For comparison's sake, the worst offenses in the country over the past 3 years averaged 4.0, 3.9. 3.6 and 3.5 yards per play for the year. Now they face Navy, whose big weakness is defense. Big class relief here for them on that side of the ball, and as we all know, they are covering machines in this role (19-6). I'm betting that the Rutgers joy ride ends this week.
4. @Michigan St -2.5 v Michigan: The more I read about this game, the more I see people climbing on the Michigan bandwagon. Many people are pointing out the common opponent between these two(ND) and that Michigan beat them while MSU took it on the chin. Truthfully, save the miraculous comeback in which Notre Dame gagged on their tater tots, Michigan's offense did mostly nothing in that game. On the flip side, MSU's defense held ND to 275 total yards. While I am not surprised that Michigan has gotten off to this start, and I think they'll end up having a very nice year, this looks like a bad matchup for them to me. First of all, this will be, by leaps and bounds, the best defense they have faced this year, and it will come on the road, only the second time they've ventured out so far. It can be pointed out that MSU has not faced anyone like DRob and the Michigan offense and that would be true, but they faced him last year in the Big House, under an offense that was completely geared toward his strengths. In that game, as a 5 point dog MSU held Michigan 17 points and one of their lowest yardage outputs of the year. DRob also tossed them 3 picks, something he hasn't avoided this year so far either. If MSU starts getting penetration and starts disrupting things(as #1 ranked defenses tend to do), it might be a long day if Michigan needs to throw to move the ball. On the flip side, I think MSU is more than capable of moving the ball, especially through the air with Cousins. Also don't forget that DRob has a history of getting injured in Big Ten games...definitely a concern for the Wolverines here. I think it'll be back to drawing board for Brady Hoke and co after this one.
5. @North Carolina -3 v Miami: I've been wrong on some ACC games this year that I've loved(VT/Clemson comes to mind) so I might be wrong here, but as Charles Barkley would say, "I doubt it." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIPapliRgQY. (Sorry for that ridiculous interlude). Miami comes in off a very tough loss at VT where they hung in and looked good, especially on offense. Unfortunately, they gave up 38 points to a previously inept VT offense and are currently ranked 97th in yards per play on defense, 103rd against the run and 89th against the pass. They are now going back on the road to face a very balanced offense in UNC, one who sleepwalked through their home game last week and will be ready to redeem themselves in front of the home folks. Miami has to go back on the road for another toughie, and we can certainly expect our pal Jacory Harris to throw it to the Heels at least twice.As long as Brynn Renner(and trust me, I am not excited about counting on determined play from a kid whose name elicits visions of a douchebag)avoids turning the ball over at an alarming rate, I think the Heels get the job done here.
6. @Wyoming -10.5 v UNLV: This should be an auto play for anyone, considering what I wrote above. Also consider that afrer the Reno game, UNLV is now 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog. Actually, Wyoming isn't as bad as their game last week with Utah St either..I kind of like their young QB, they can throw it around a bit. Not that it matters. UNLV on the road is an auto fade. They haven't come within 28 points of anybody on the road since early 2009. Take a look at their road performances over the past 2+ years. Lots of 59-7s in there.
7. @Tulane -1 v UTEP: I hope I'm not asking too much from Tulane to simply win a home game against a team that has won 5 road games in 5 years, and only 2 against teams not from New Mexico. Tulane has been somewhat explosive on offense, having piled up 471 yards on Syracuse last week and 550 on the road at UAB a couple weeks before that. UTEP comes in ranked 116th in yards per play against on defense. Offensively, they are not great either, as it appears to me that Tulane will have the edge on that side of the ball as well. On paper, Tulane looks like about a 10 point favorite to me, so only a complete shit the bed performance will keep them from a victory here.
8. Oklahoma St -7 @Texas: You might be thinking, "What's up with this moron. Last week, he loved 10 points with Texas against Oklahoma but now he DOESN'T like a TD at home against a lesser opponent?" Ok, I will admit, this is a departure from what I thought last week. But consider: If I am a rape victim who had a rough go of it in what I considered a clearly inviting dark alley last week, am I going to enter a slightly less dark alley this week? No, I am not..I have changed my mind about dark alleys. Also, Oklahoma State is a runaway freight train as a road favorite, having gone 11-3 in that role under Gundy, who I am slowly starting to consider one of the best coaches in the country. On the other hand, Texas is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Also, although Oklahoma never needed to even send their offense on the field, they merely toyed with Texas's secondary, and Texas is ranked 98th in the country in sacks...not a good proposition when facing the Pokes pass offense. Texas might have a little easier sledding against Okie St's defense, but if they don't run effectively, I don't see the Horns being able to trade scores with Okie St. Texas is going to have a hard time keeping this one close in my opinion.
9. LSU -17 v Tennessee: Tennessee's only chance in this one is to hope that they can hold LSU down in the low 20's because they aren't going to score on LSU, especially without their QB Tyler Bray, now injured, who I think is a pretty good player. Even with him, Georgia held them to 12 and very little success, so I would think LSU will be thinking offense on defense. They certainly will not be giving up anything significant as long as they are motivated. Defensively, Tennessee is ranked 73rd in the country..not impressive by any stretch, and don't look now, but LSU is getting to be pretty explosive on offense now that they have developed some playmakers at WR, ranking in the top 25 in passer rating and yards per attempt. I'd also expect a couple defensive or ST scores from LSU here..looks like a 38-7 type game to me. Coming off the big home win over Florida last week, I actually like them better on the road than if this game was a day game in Baton Rouge.
10. Alabama - whatever (26.5??) @Mississippi: Ole Miss has no shot of scoring on Alabama..they're ranked 103rd in total offense. They are also ranked 90th against the run, which is terrible news if you have designs on keeping Trent Richardson from steamrolling you all night. This is one of those games that Bama would win by 21 if they never took the defense off the field. 44-0. I hate doing this, but this year, it seems all you have to do is bet on a top10 favorite, then sit back and count your money. That'll probably change in a couple weeks though.
11. Florida -2 @Auburn: Everyone is on Auburn...especially "the experts" but in my opinion, Florida's got the edge here. They've been blown out the last two weeks, but that was obviously against the two best teams in the country, and the two best defenses by a mile. Now they get class relief against an Auburn defense that everyone knows leaves something to be desired. Although the QB situation is in a flux, I think they'll have success running the ball against that defense. Auburn is actually on a bit of a downward spiral right now, as the natives are getting restless with starting QB Barrett Trotter. He'll start this week, but he might not last long. Defensively, Florida remains a solid group, and Auburn has surprisingly fallen to 71st in the country in offense(ypp). They can't throw the ball at all, and I think Florida will be ready to take care of their running game. Florida seems to have the edge on both sides of the coin here, and by a big margin. It'll be tough to win a night game at Auburn, but I think they are the better team and are due for a good performance.
12. @Washington St +21 v Stanford: It's been a death sentence to go against top 10 teams when favored this year, but something's gotta give at some point. Stanford has struggled somewhat against the pass, and I think, especially at home in what has to be their biggest home game in several years, Wazzou will have some success there. Defensively, Wazzou has been compeititive, and Stanford has played absolutely zero decent defensive teams, so I think they might be a little overrated on offense. At some point, Stanford is not going to have every break go their way. Hell, I don't need them to lose, I just need them to win 40-20. I like this Washington St team offensively..I think they can puit up enough points to stay in this game.
13. Utah St -3 @Fresno: Even though Fresno is dogged in this game, there is little likelihood that they get excited to play Utah St, while the Aggies will be licking their chops at a shot at Fresno, a team that has handled them easily in recent years. On paper, this is a mismatch, as Fresno is giving up gobs of yards on defense, especially in the running game, where Utah St excels. Also, Utah St has been stout on defense, and Fresno has yet to get things going with new QB Derek Carr. Utah State is a solid squad. They should have beaten both Auburn and BYU on the road and despite playing a good schedule, they are ranked 9th nationally in ypp on offense and 16th in ypp on defense. Fresno gave up 38 points and 445 yards at home to Ole Miss for crying out loud. Utah St is by far the better squad here.
Others: (All of these were close to being numbereds, but you have to cut somewhere) Lean to Utah(+6.5) to cover a decent sized spread in a game that will probably be very low scoring. First road start for the new Utah Qb who has had turnover problems, but Utah is the much better defense...Also lean to Louisville (+17) in their game in Cincy. They are good defensively and have had some success in the passing game. They've also had a knack for staying in games they don't belong under Charlie Strong, while also losing games they should win. They are much more comfortable in this role....Just a hunch, but I think Mississippi St(+3.5), who has been quietly waiting for South Carolina to come to town amid all the Garcia turmoil in Columbia this week, knocks off the Cocks. I'm skeptical that Connor Shaw is as good as he showed last week, and I think the Gamecocks drop a clunker off their domination of Kentucky....Almost went with UCF (+3.5) as a numbered because I think their pass defense will shut down SMU. June Jones is also 1-9-1 as a home favorite, but I was looking for a little more breathing room on that spread. Plus, I hate betting against RB Zack Line. UCF may win outright anyway though.... Boise (-31) will probably destroy Colorado St.....I think Wake (+6.5) is for real, but I don't like the spot for them coming off the Florida State win. Wake has been good on both sides of the ball, so I think they can have success against VT, but I wanted more than a TD....I think pat Fitzgerald will get a good performance out of the Cats (+6) this week at Iowa. they are so bad defensively that I would need more than a TD here, but I think they will move the ball rather easily on Iowa through the air. Kind of a bad spot for the Hawkeyes here. Despite what they've done this year, you still need a determined performance to knock off the Cats, and road dog is a good role for them.....I think Oregon(-14.5) is going to kill Arizona St. ASU handled them well in Tempe last year, but still managed to find a way to lose by DD. I think Oregon will have the better of the scrimmaging this year, even though LaMichael James is out. I'd like to see ASU hang with them though, because that's Illinois good win on the year. That's it for this week....Take care!!!!!!!!!!!!
Friday, October 7, 2011
Week 6 Musings
Not a bad week last week, going 8-5 to bring the season total back above .500 (35-33-2....51.4%). Still not covering the juice, but I'll take it at this point. Among the 5 losses were a couple of head scratchers(Tulane and VT come to mind quickly) but those things happen. 8-2 on the also rans as well, so if you threw a couple bucks on some of those games, chances are you did ok. A couple highlights from last week: 1. Illinois wins but fails to cover. This was a best of both worlds scenario. Obviously, I was rooting fo the Illini, but I also held a NW +10 ticket, so it was nice to see an exciting 3 point win. 2. The SMU +13 @TCU bet was one of my favorites in a long time, so I was obviously glad that one came in. This one was a HEAVY public favorite. I love winning while knowing at the same time that a bunch of degenerates are burning their tickets in anger. By the way, speaking of temper tantrums, I might be brewing up a little hatred for a previously nondescript(to me) guy. TCU coach Gary Patterson, a guy who's been having his knob slobbed uncontrollably for the past several years by a panting national college football media, has decided that he is NOT happy about how that loss to SMU went down. He's bitching about refs, he's mad at June Jones, and he's mad at SMU in general. TCU has now lost 2 games this year, which is more than they lost in the past two years combined, and Gary Patterson will have you know that it is certainly not his fault, and he sees no reason for the knob slobbing to stop. Here's a link to the story, he comes off as a total dickface: http://espn.go.com/dallas/ncf/story/_/id/7064059/smu-mustangs-coach-june-jones-tcu-horned-frogs-coach-gary-patterson-misconstrued-compliment
This is a little late, but I feel I should say this in the wake of all the terrible uniforms we've been subjected to in recent years and months, and also here in October where everything in the world is pink. (Ed note; I understand the importance of breast cancer awareness, but do the leaders of that movement have dirty pictures of every CEO, sports commissioner or power broker in the country?? I'm waiting for the flag's colors to change from red white and blue to pink, pink and pink.) Having said that, I have to say that there are some nice developments in on the uniform front. 1. I am a fan of white helmets. This year, I have seen a bunch of teams going to white helmets, if not all the time, at least some of the time. Indiana used one, Kentucky has used one(a great departure back to the Tim Couch/Hefty Lefty days) and most recently, Cal had one tonight, which I thought looked pretty good.
2. The previous worst uniforms in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills 3 tone blue jerseys with dark blue pants have been shitcanned and replaced with the vintage unis from the Joe Ferguson era: White helmets with the Blue Buffalo. Not the red docile Buffalo, but the charging one. HUGE improvement. Kudos to the Bills.
Last thing: One shocking development of this year is that Home Run Hire Turner Gill has not yet completed his domination of the Big 12 at Kansas. I'm sure it's only a matter of time, since he IS the original no brainer Home Run Hire. It appears that the major problem for Kansas this year has been their defense. They've had a bit of a slow start..they rank 120th in total defense, rush defense and pass defense depending on the category. Just a blip on the radar screen I'm sure. My guess is they'll get it figured out, and we'll see major improvement. How can they not? Home Run Hire is there. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Their remaining schedule is as follows: @Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, Kansas St, @Texas, @Iowa St, Baylor, Texas A&M, and Missouri. I'm sure they'll improve against that bunch.
On to this week:
1. Texas +10.5 v Oklahoma: The prevailing wisdom here is that Texas is too young in the skill positions to avoid turnovers and as a result, the Horns have little chance in this game. Well, if they turn the ball over a ton, that will be true. However, if I look at a game and conclude that I have the better team and I'm getting 10.5 points, I'm jumping on it. Oklahoma has been good, no doubt about that. They scored about 9 TDs in 37 seconds against poor Ball State last week, and they look darn impressive at times. But I still don't see how you can justify making them a DD favorite in this game. Texas has settled back in as an elite defense..actually, numbers wise they didn't really drop off last year, everything just collapsed around them. Oklahoma has struggled to run the ball against good defenses with their walk on running back, and I think that will continue this week. Texas is also ranked 5th against the pass, although they haven't faced any world beaters. On the flip side, Oklahoma has only the 46th ranked defense in the country in yards per play, while Texas has settled in well since they politely told Garrett Gilbert to get lost. New OC Bryan Harsin, previously Boise's OC, has had a very positive effect on the team. Oklahoma has given up some yards..this is not a dominating defense in my opinion. Missouri gashed them for 500+ yards and had 2 guys go for 100+ on the ground, so I'm sure Harsin will figure out a way to exploit them, just like he did for Boise in the famous Statue of Liberty game back in the '05 Fiesta Bowl when he was the OC there. This game is a complete tossup and I'd not be surprised if Texas wins outright as long as Case Mc Coy doesn't shit the bed. I wouldn't expect that, given his pedigree. Obviously, I feel getting 10.5 is a major bargain.
2. Bowling Green +10 @Western Michigan: Not a fan of these MAC games, but I see value in this one. Both of these offenses have been very successful, especially with their passing games. Bowling Green is 28th in passer rating, WMU is 32nd. Both have not been pushovers in pass defense either. BG is actually ranked 16th against the pass nationally, but that number is skewed by their game with Morgan St in which they only gave up 39 yards on 28 pass attempts(!!!). They've also played against West Virginia, Idaho , Wyoming and Miami(OH) though, all of which have competent passing games. The difference between these two teams, however is the running game. WMU can't run to save their lives..they hardly even try. They also can't stop the run, ranking 109th nationally in ypc against. BG has had one of their backs top 100 yards in every game but 1 this year, even in their demolition by West Virginia in the rain last week. The result of that game plus WMU's nice performance so far this year against BCS squads has made this line as big as it is, but I think these two teams are evenly matched, and that's being nice to WMU given their running game deficiencies. Also remember that BG has handled both Idaho and Miami(OH) on the road this year. I'll take the 10.
3. @LSU -13 v Florida: Having watched Florida in the second half against Alabama, it's pretty clear to me that they are not at the level of the elites in the SEC. Will Muschamp is going to run around and deliver some vein popping screams here and there, but for the time being, it doesn't look like they are going to have much success moving the ball. One way or another, Florida is going to have a Freshman QB at the helm this weekend, and that does not bode well against this defense. LSU's defensive line has 4 playmakers on it and they are almost as fast as those little scatbacks Florida has running around back there. I thoroughly expect LSU to score at least once on defense, and Tyrann Matthieu, nicknamed "The Honey Badger" will probably score on either defense or special teams as well. The call him The Honey Badger because he's as tenacious as this guy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ua3M1O-WQrM.
Offensively, I think LSU is getting better, as they have uncovered a couple of playmakers at WR, and they have a bunch of tough runners behind an elite offensive line. It's a day game, luckily for Florida, but it's national TV and the place will be looking for blood. They'll be jacked up for Florida like they always are, except this time, Florida won't be anywhere near the offensive threat one would expect. LSU will be looking to make a statement. Hopefully, Less doesn't have too much of an effect.
4. Southern Miss +2 @Navy: Navy isn't a good favorite, and they aren't an especially good home team either. I love Navy, but they are best suited for an underdog role. In this instance, Southern Miss has been very good against the run, ranked 10th nationally in ypc. That doesn't necessarily mean that Navy won't be able to have some success, because they probably will, but we won't see Navy being able to just pound the fullback on them. On the other hand, Navy's defense has not been good this year, having been gashed on the ground and they are always very shaky against the pass. Under Fedora, USM has always had good balance, so Navy will not be able to key on any one area. USM has the clear edge in almost every category when these teams line up, so I'll take a couple points and expect the outright win.
5. Air Force +14 @ Notre Dame: Surprisingly, these two teams have not played each other since 2007. After dispatching an apparently overmatched Purdue team last week, the national consensus on Notre Dame is that they are now settled in and ready to run off 7 in a row on the way to a BCS game. In comes AirForce, with the 3rd ranked offense in the country, thanks mostly to their option attack. As everyone knows, I consider Navy or Air Force as a double digit underdog virtually an auto play, and this one is no different. Air Force will shorten the number of possessions because of their nature, making it hard for a 2 TD favorite to cover. In addition, making the case that ND has just magically figured out how to hold on to the ball is nonsense. If they turn it over once or twice, the question is going to change from whether or not they cover to whether or not they win. This would be a game that the Notre Dame teams of the past 4 years or so figure out a way to lose. If they take care of business and handle this solid Air Force team easily, maybe they are on their way to great things. But given their penchant for turnovers, boneheaded play and blown coverages in the secondary(and Air Force has already thrown 6 TD passes this year), I doubt it.
6. Iowa +4 @ Penn State: Awful Announcing has slacked, so I'm not sure who's doing what game, but I think one way or the other I am stuck with Black Death(otherwise known as Matt Millen) poisoning my team. He might be here, but he almost certainly will be on one of the big ABC/ESPN games, all of which I have a strong opinion on. As far as this game, Iowa has owned Penn State. Ferentz is 8-1 against Penn State in his last 9 games, and the past couple years, they've handled Penn State with no problem, beating the spread by more than 2 scores in both cases. Statistically, the teams match up pretty evenly. Both teams' defenses should have the better of things, but we'll see what Penn State's pass defense does with Iowa, because this will be by far the best pass offense they've faced. Iowa's Achilles heel has been pass defense, but Penn State has shown zero ability to exploit that, regardless of which one of those clowns they trot out there at QB. Basically, I'll take more than a FG in what appears likely to be a very low scoring game with the better passing game and the coach that's dominated play in this series.
7. @Houston -11 v East Carolina: This line has moved a couple of points over the past couple of days, but I still feel it's got a lot of value. This is a very interesting game. Last year, the book on ECU was that they were absolutely helpless on defense, but the new Texas Tech style offense kept them in games because they stayed on the field by dinking and dunking people to death. This year, coming into the North Carolina game last week, the ECU world was turned on it's head, because they were ranked in the bottom fifth in offense, but their defense was looking ok. Now things are changing. Last week, they piled up a bunch of yards at home against UNC, if not all that many points(20), but fell back into the doldrums defensively, surrendering 11.5 yards per pass attempt(!!). In their only previous game away from home, they gave up 56 to South Carolina, which was a bit deceiving, but shit, they still found a way to give up 56 freakin points. Now they have to go to Houston and face that wildman Case Keenum. The last time they faced him in Houston, (as a 10 point dog, mind you)with a better defense under a much better staff(Skip Holtz), they gave up 619 yards and 41 points. Houston is much better defensively at home, and since Keenum has been at the helm full time, they are 8-1 ATS at home. ECU will have to do more than accumulate yards to stay in this one.
8. @Texas Tech +9.5 v Texas A&M: Texas Tech has been pretty woeful on defense this year, so it seems likely that A&M should be able to move the ball on them, but I just can't see A&M, in their current state rising up and taking care of business like this in Lubbock. Tech, as usual is throwing the ball effectively, this time under QB Seth Doege. A&M is burning oil in their secondary, ranked 91st after getting torched in the second half for the second week in a row. This is a night game in Lubbock, and Tech has been handled 2 years in a row by the Aggies. There is no doubt that we'll see a max effort from the Red Raiders and their fans in what will probably be the Aggies swan song in Lubbock for a long time. If Sherman sacks up and squeezes a dominant effort in what has historically been a hellhole for A&M, I'll tip my hat. Actually, I'll do that if he wins the game.
9. @Baylor -15 v Iowa St: Baylor got a wakeup call from what had thus far been the Robert Griffin deification tour, as they dropped a toughie to KSt last weekend in Manhattan. Now they return home to play a pedestrian Iowa St squad who has suddenly begun to show their warts, especially defensively. Coming into the K St game, Griffin had famously thrown more TD passes than incompletions. Even after that game, it's 18 TDs to 20 incompletions. In order to hang in this one, Iowa State is going to have to put up points, and Baylor has been surprisingly good defensively this year. I don't think this one will be close.
10. @Nevada -20.5 v UNLV: After a 3 week respite from the road, UNLV goes back to the place they least like to be..which is anywhere in the world other than Las Vegas. They are now 6-26 as a road dog over their last 32, and they don't match up well in this one either. This is Nevada's first home game of the year believe it or not, after having played at Texas Tech, Oregon, San Jose St and Boise. Ouch. Major class drop for the Wolf Pack here, and since Ault took over his second tenure here in 2004 they are 23-11 as a home favorite. So we have 23-11 vs 6-26. I'll go with Nevada, especially since they'll be motivated in their home opener off a tough loss.
11. Colorado +30 @Stanford: I understand Stanford is really good and Colorado has looked pretty bad this year, but this line is pretty ridiculous. 30 points? Despite their record, Colorado has been ok statistically, with a nice ability to run the ball and pass it a bit. They had a late collapse last week, but were beating a pretty good Wazzou team by 10. Stanford has been very fortunate in their games, as they've gotten a bunch of defensive scores and some late front door covers. I also don't think Stanford can give their best effort here...there is no way they are going to be hyped up for a weak opponent 2 weeks in a row at home. Can I ask for 42-14??? Come on. Like Kentucky last week, drop their asses out of the Pac 10 if Colorado can't handle this spread.
12. @Nebraska -11 v Ohio St: Who is going to throw the ball for Ohio State? I can't tell you how bad they suck, and to make matters worse, they had this week circled on the calendar as the game they get their studs back, and now that's not even going to happen, so they have to play with the same stiffs that couldn't get a 1st down in Columbus against Michigan St last week. Nebraska has not been any great shakes themselves on defense this year, but they are going to be spitting nails coming off that embarrassment last week, and now they're getting a chance to redeem themselves at home in front of a prime time national TV audience. Bo Pelini will physically assault them if they don't , so I expect them to be ready. The fans will be behind them too, eager to show the Big Ten what a game in Lincoln is all about. Ohio State might be able to hang defensively for awhile, but after about their 5th consecutive 3 and out, they'll lose hope and get steamrolled. I wouldn't be surprised if this one ends up in the 31-6 range.
13 Washington State +4 @UCLA: I really hesitate to get too caught up on the Wazzou bandwagon, especially when they are on the road 2 weeks in a row, but I can't get past a couple things. WSU is ranked 8th in total offense, UCLA is 103rd. WSU is 10th in passing, UCLA is 100th. UCLA is under enormous pressure to win this one, and they elicit no confidence from their fan base. WAZZOU, surprisingly, has also been pretty good on defense and rate pretty even with UCLA's offense, while they hold an extreme advantage when they have the ball. Given that I get what looks to be the better team, more than a FG and a team trying their best to not implode under extreme pressure, I'll take the Cougs here.
Others: I like Eastern Michigan(+21) to hang with Toledo in what appears to be a terrible spot for the Rockets coming off the beat down of temple. EMU can really run it, and 21 will be a lot to ask Toledo to cover against an improved team that they probably won't give 2 shits about.....Can South Carolina score 21 points against anyone?? We'll see if Connor Shaw can do it but unless they score a couple times on defense against Kentucky, it's going to be hard. I'll take the 21 with Kentucky, assuming their adequate defense hold down So Car and hey at least get a couple field goals....I really liked Wake at +14 when it came out, but that line has been bet down to 10, so I'm not as excited. However, I thin they have a shot at the outright based on how they've played so far, so I will take the 10 points.....NIU's(-16.5) major problem has been their defense, as they can score on anyone. This week they get the 120th ranked offense in the country in kent, so I thinkthey'll roll if they score like they're capable......I have a hunch Mizzou(-4) walks into Manhattan and ends K State's fantasy ride. They have proven themselves as worthy competitiors on the road, having given Arizona State and Oklahoma all they wanted. K State is due for a clunker, and the public is on them heavily as a home dog..... I don't know that Syracuse should be favored on the road against anyone, and Tulane is no exception. The Green Wave(+10) had everything possible go wrong for them last week against Army, increasing this line. I wouldn't be surprised if they won it outright.
That's it for now. have a good one!!
This is a little late, but I feel I should say this in the wake of all the terrible uniforms we've been subjected to in recent years and months, and also here in October where everything in the world is pink. (Ed note; I understand the importance of breast cancer awareness, but do the leaders of that movement have dirty pictures of every CEO, sports commissioner or power broker in the country?? I'm waiting for the flag's colors to change from red white and blue to pink, pink and pink.) Having said that, I have to say that there are some nice developments in on the uniform front. 1. I am a fan of white helmets. This year, I have seen a bunch of teams going to white helmets, if not all the time, at least some of the time. Indiana used one, Kentucky has used one(a great departure back to the Tim Couch/Hefty Lefty days) and most recently, Cal had one tonight, which I thought looked pretty good.
2. The previous worst uniforms in the NFL, the Buffalo Bills 3 tone blue jerseys with dark blue pants have been shitcanned and replaced with the vintage unis from the Joe Ferguson era: White helmets with the Blue Buffalo. Not the red docile Buffalo, but the charging one. HUGE improvement. Kudos to the Bills.
Last thing: One shocking development of this year is that Home Run Hire Turner Gill has not yet completed his domination of the Big 12 at Kansas. I'm sure it's only a matter of time, since he IS the original no brainer Home Run Hire. It appears that the major problem for Kansas this year has been their defense. They've had a bit of a slow start..they rank 120th in total defense, rush defense and pass defense depending on the category. Just a blip on the radar screen I'm sure. My guess is they'll get it figured out, and we'll see major improvement. How can they not? Home Run Hire is there. I guess we'll have to wait and see. Their remaining schedule is as follows: @Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, Kansas St, @Texas, @Iowa St, Baylor, Texas A&M, and Missouri. I'm sure they'll improve against that bunch.
On to this week:
1. Texas +10.5 v Oklahoma: The prevailing wisdom here is that Texas is too young in the skill positions to avoid turnovers and as a result, the Horns have little chance in this game. Well, if they turn the ball over a ton, that will be true. However, if I look at a game and conclude that I have the better team and I'm getting 10.5 points, I'm jumping on it. Oklahoma has been good, no doubt about that. They scored about 9 TDs in 37 seconds against poor Ball State last week, and they look darn impressive at times. But I still don't see how you can justify making them a DD favorite in this game. Texas has settled back in as an elite defense..actually, numbers wise they didn't really drop off last year, everything just collapsed around them. Oklahoma has struggled to run the ball against good defenses with their walk on running back, and I think that will continue this week. Texas is also ranked 5th against the pass, although they haven't faced any world beaters. On the flip side, Oklahoma has only the 46th ranked defense in the country in yards per play, while Texas has settled in well since they politely told Garrett Gilbert to get lost. New OC Bryan Harsin, previously Boise's OC, has had a very positive effect on the team. Oklahoma has given up some yards..this is not a dominating defense in my opinion. Missouri gashed them for 500+ yards and had 2 guys go for 100+ on the ground, so I'm sure Harsin will figure out a way to exploit them, just like he did for Boise in the famous Statue of Liberty game back in the '05 Fiesta Bowl when he was the OC there. This game is a complete tossup and I'd not be surprised if Texas wins outright as long as Case Mc Coy doesn't shit the bed. I wouldn't expect that, given his pedigree. Obviously, I feel getting 10.5 is a major bargain.
2. Bowling Green +10 @Western Michigan: Not a fan of these MAC games, but I see value in this one. Both of these offenses have been very successful, especially with their passing games. Bowling Green is 28th in passer rating, WMU is 32nd. Both have not been pushovers in pass defense either. BG is actually ranked 16th against the pass nationally, but that number is skewed by their game with Morgan St in which they only gave up 39 yards on 28 pass attempts(!!!). They've also played against West Virginia, Idaho , Wyoming and Miami(OH) though, all of which have competent passing games. The difference between these two teams, however is the running game. WMU can't run to save their lives..they hardly even try. They also can't stop the run, ranking 109th nationally in ypc against. BG has had one of their backs top 100 yards in every game but 1 this year, even in their demolition by West Virginia in the rain last week. The result of that game plus WMU's nice performance so far this year against BCS squads has made this line as big as it is, but I think these two teams are evenly matched, and that's being nice to WMU given their running game deficiencies. Also remember that BG has handled both Idaho and Miami(OH) on the road this year. I'll take the 10.
3. @LSU -13 v Florida: Having watched Florida in the second half against Alabama, it's pretty clear to me that they are not at the level of the elites in the SEC. Will Muschamp is going to run around and deliver some vein popping screams here and there, but for the time being, it doesn't look like they are going to have much success moving the ball. One way or another, Florida is going to have a Freshman QB at the helm this weekend, and that does not bode well against this defense. LSU's defensive line has 4 playmakers on it and they are almost as fast as those little scatbacks Florida has running around back there. I thoroughly expect LSU to score at least once on defense, and Tyrann Matthieu, nicknamed "The Honey Badger" will probably score on either defense or special teams as well. The call him The Honey Badger because he's as tenacious as this guy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ua3M1O-WQrM.
Offensively, I think LSU is getting better, as they have uncovered a couple of playmakers at WR, and they have a bunch of tough runners behind an elite offensive line. It's a day game, luckily for Florida, but it's national TV and the place will be looking for blood. They'll be jacked up for Florida like they always are, except this time, Florida won't be anywhere near the offensive threat one would expect. LSU will be looking to make a statement. Hopefully, Less doesn't have too much of an effect.
4. Southern Miss +2 @Navy: Navy isn't a good favorite, and they aren't an especially good home team either. I love Navy, but they are best suited for an underdog role. In this instance, Southern Miss has been very good against the run, ranked 10th nationally in ypc. That doesn't necessarily mean that Navy won't be able to have some success, because they probably will, but we won't see Navy being able to just pound the fullback on them. On the other hand, Navy's defense has not been good this year, having been gashed on the ground and they are always very shaky against the pass. Under Fedora, USM has always had good balance, so Navy will not be able to key on any one area. USM has the clear edge in almost every category when these teams line up, so I'll take a couple points and expect the outright win.
5. Air Force +14 @ Notre Dame: Surprisingly, these two teams have not played each other since 2007. After dispatching an apparently overmatched Purdue team last week, the national consensus on Notre Dame is that they are now settled in and ready to run off 7 in a row on the way to a BCS game. In comes AirForce, with the 3rd ranked offense in the country, thanks mostly to their option attack. As everyone knows, I consider Navy or Air Force as a double digit underdog virtually an auto play, and this one is no different. Air Force will shorten the number of possessions because of their nature, making it hard for a 2 TD favorite to cover. In addition, making the case that ND has just magically figured out how to hold on to the ball is nonsense. If they turn it over once or twice, the question is going to change from whether or not they cover to whether or not they win. This would be a game that the Notre Dame teams of the past 4 years or so figure out a way to lose. If they take care of business and handle this solid Air Force team easily, maybe they are on their way to great things. But given their penchant for turnovers, boneheaded play and blown coverages in the secondary(and Air Force has already thrown 6 TD passes this year), I doubt it.
6. Iowa +4 @ Penn State: Awful Announcing has slacked, so I'm not sure who's doing what game, but I think one way or the other I am stuck with Black Death(otherwise known as Matt Millen) poisoning my team. He might be here, but he almost certainly will be on one of the big ABC/ESPN games, all of which I have a strong opinion on. As far as this game, Iowa has owned Penn State. Ferentz is 8-1 against Penn State in his last 9 games, and the past couple years, they've handled Penn State with no problem, beating the spread by more than 2 scores in both cases. Statistically, the teams match up pretty evenly. Both teams' defenses should have the better of things, but we'll see what Penn State's pass defense does with Iowa, because this will be by far the best pass offense they've faced. Iowa's Achilles heel has been pass defense, but Penn State has shown zero ability to exploit that, regardless of which one of those clowns they trot out there at QB. Basically, I'll take more than a FG in what appears likely to be a very low scoring game with the better passing game and the coach that's dominated play in this series.
7. @Houston -11 v East Carolina: This line has moved a couple of points over the past couple of days, but I still feel it's got a lot of value. This is a very interesting game. Last year, the book on ECU was that they were absolutely helpless on defense, but the new Texas Tech style offense kept them in games because they stayed on the field by dinking and dunking people to death. This year, coming into the North Carolina game last week, the ECU world was turned on it's head, because they were ranked in the bottom fifth in offense, but their defense was looking ok. Now things are changing. Last week, they piled up a bunch of yards at home against UNC, if not all that many points(20), but fell back into the doldrums defensively, surrendering 11.5 yards per pass attempt(!!). In their only previous game away from home, they gave up 56 to South Carolina, which was a bit deceiving, but shit, they still found a way to give up 56 freakin points. Now they have to go to Houston and face that wildman Case Keenum. The last time they faced him in Houston, (as a 10 point dog, mind you)with a better defense under a much better staff(Skip Holtz), they gave up 619 yards and 41 points. Houston is much better defensively at home, and since Keenum has been at the helm full time, they are 8-1 ATS at home. ECU will have to do more than accumulate yards to stay in this one.
8. @Texas Tech +9.5 v Texas A&M: Texas Tech has been pretty woeful on defense this year, so it seems likely that A&M should be able to move the ball on them, but I just can't see A&M, in their current state rising up and taking care of business like this in Lubbock. Tech, as usual is throwing the ball effectively, this time under QB Seth Doege. A&M is burning oil in their secondary, ranked 91st after getting torched in the second half for the second week in a row. This is a night game in Lubbock, and Tech has been handled 2 years in a row by the Aggies. There is no doubt that we'll see a max effort from the Red Raiders and their fans in what will probably be the Aggies swan song in Lubbock for a long time. If Sherman sacks up and squeezes a dominant effort in what has historically been a hellhole for A&M, I'll tip my hat. Actually, I'll do that if he wins the game.
9. @Baylor -15 v Iowa St: Baylor got a wakeup call from what had thus far been the Robert Griffin deification tour, as they dropped a toughie to KSt last weekend in Manhattan. Now they return home to play a pedestrian Iowa St squad who has suddenly begun to show their warts, especially defensively. Coming into the K St game, Griffin had famously thrown more TD passes than incompletions. Even after that game, it's 18 TDs to 20 incompletions. In order to hang in this one, Iowa State is going to have to put up points, and Baylor has been surprisingly good defensively this year. I don't think this one will be close.
10. @Nevada -20.5 v UNLV: After a 3 week respite from the road, UNLV goes back to the place they least like to be..which is anywhere in the world other than Las Vegas. They are now 6-26 as a road dog over their last 32, and they don't match up well in this one either. This is Nevada's first home game of the year believe it or not, after having played at Texas Tech, Oregon, San Jose St and Boise. Ouch. Major class drop for the Wolf Pack here, and since Ault took over his second tenure here in 2004 they are 23-11 as a home favorite. So we have 23-11 vs 6-26. I'll go with Nevada, especially since they'll be motivated in their home opener off a tough loss.
11. Colorado +30 @Stanford: I understand Stanford is really good and Colorado has looked pretty bad this year, but this line is pretty ridiculous. 30 points? Despite their record, Colorado has been ok statistically, with a nice ability to run the ball and pass it a bit. They had a late collapse last week, but were beating a pretty good Wazzou team by 10. Stanford has been very fortunate in their games, as they've gotten a bunch of defensive scores and some late front door covers. I also don't think Stanford can give their best effort here...there is no way they are going to be hyped up for a weak opponent 2 weeks in a row at home. Can I ask for 42-14??? Come on. Like Kentucky last week, drop their asses out of the Pac 10 if Colorado can't handle this spread.
12. @Nebraska -11 v Ohio St: Who is going to throw the ball for Ohio State? I can't tell you how bad they suck, and to make matters worse, they had this week circled on the calendar as the game they get their studs back, and now that's not even going to happen, so they have to play with the same stiffs that couldn't get a 1st down in Columbus against Michigan St last week. Nebraska has not been any great shakes themselves on defense this year, but they are going to be spitting nails coming off that embarrassment last week, and now they're getting a chance to redeem themselves at home in front of a prime time national TV audience. Bo Pelini will physically assault them if they don't , so I expect them to be ready. The fans will be behind them too, eager to show the Big Ten what a game in Lincoln is all about. Ohio State might be able to hang defensively for awhile, but after about their 5th consecutive 3 and out, they'll lose hope and get steamrolled. I wouldn't be surprised if this one ends up in the 31-6 range.
13 Washington State +4 @UCLA: I really hesitate to get too caught up on the Wazzou bandwagon, especially when they are on the road 2 weeks in a row, but I can't get past a couple things. WSU is ranked 8th in total offense, UCLA is 103rd. WSU is 10th in passing, UCLA is 100th. UCLA is under enormous pressure to win this one, and they elicit no confidence from their fan base. WAZZOU, surprisingly, has also been pretty good on defense and rate pretty even with UCLA's offense, while they hold an extreme advantage when they have the ball. Given that I get what looks to be the better team, more than a FG and a team trying their best to not implode under extreme pressure, I'll take the Cougs here.
Others: I like Eastern Michigan(+21) to hang with Toledo in what appears to be a terrible spot for the Rockets coming off the beat down of temple. EMU can really run it, and 21 will be a lot to ask Toledo to cover against an improved team that they probably won't give 2 shits about.....Can South Carolina score 21 points against anyone?? We'll see if Connor Shaw can do it but unless they score a couple times on defense against Kentucky, it's going to be hard. I'll take the 21 with Kentucky, assuming their adequate defense hold down So Car and hey at least get a couple field goals....I really liked Wake at +14 when it came out, but that line has been bet down to 10, so I'm not as excited. However, I thin they have a shot at the outright based on how they've played so far, so I will take the 10 points.....NIU's(-16.5) major problem has been their defense, as they can score on anyone. This week they get the 120th ranked offense in the country in kent, so I thinkthey'll roll if they score like they're capable......I have a hunch Mizzou(-4) walks into Manhattan and ends K State's fantasy ride. They have proven themselves as worthy competitiors on the road, having given Arizona State and Oklahoma all they wanted. K State is due for a clunker, and the public is on them heavily as a home dog..... I don't know that Syracuse should be favored on the road against anyone, and Tulane is no exception. The Green Wave(+10) had everything possible go wrong for them last week against Army, increasing this line. I wouldn't be surprised if they won it outright.
That's it for now. have a good one!!
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