Week 9 Musings cont'd

Good start with UVA last night, although it looked like they were trying their hardest to screw up my money line bet. Good job to them though. We'll see if Bronco and his pack of Mormons can show enough balls to stay on the field with TCU tonight. I think they will. But that usually doesn't mean anything.

Also, last night, I stayed up to watch the World Series game. That in itself is pretty rare, as I don't recall a single pitch from any World Series since the one the White Sox were in. However, if the Cardinals have a chance to get closed out, and I get an opportunity to perhaps witness Cardinal fans having their hearts ripped out. I'm always going to be up for that. Great game, but I didn't get what I hoped. Actually, I got the opposite. As you may or may not know, the Cardinals spent most of the late innings falling behind, then battling back to tie the game. They did it in the 7th, they did it again in the bottom of the 9th. Fast forward to the 10th, where Josh Hamilton cranks a two run homer to put the Cardinals behind once again. The camera immediately cuts to some punk kid Cardinals fan, who is maybe 9 years old looking up at the sky and shaking his head, as if he is lamenting his terrible luck as a baseball fan. He's about to burst out crying, when the camera cuts away. Now, this is the moment I've been waiting for. I want misery for these people, especially the children. But instead of feeling satisfaction, now I'm angry. This little mother fucker thinks he's got it bad? Because your team fell behind in one of the best World Series games ever played? Shit, you're only 9 years old and you've already seen your team win a World Series! In a year where they sucked! Talk to the 107 year old guy from Skokie who was too young to remember the last time the Cubs won one, then feel sorry for yourself, asshole!

Speaking of the Cubs, let me give you my reaction to the course of events that led to Theo Epstien and his gang of baseball nerd geniuses taking over operations. Joy. Finally, I will have a regime that I can 100% get behind. One that is making decisions based on logic and reason rather than hip snap and rustic mountain man shoulders, or "plate coverage". I'm all in. Don't say anything bad about Theo Epstien or any of these guys, because if you do, I will track you down and attempt to change your mind and convince you the error of your ways.

Last week was of course a disaster. I should have known to call for a fade. This is a good example of how it's hard to build much momentum if you don't have any outstanding weeks, which I have not had in a long time. 8-5 is great, but you need some 10-3's or 11-4's to get yourself in position to absorb a shit week. 4-8 was the damage last week. Season record falls to 53-53-2. A big middle finger gets extended to a few people as a result. 1. Colorado. Not a person, but if it was, Colorado's football team would be a combination of the following. http://izismile.com/2009/07/29/the_best_nerds_of_all_ever_46_pics.html .I was hoping that Darron Thomas would only play a half. He didn't even play at all. A backup QB, third string RB and you still can't even compete on your home field? Disgraceful. I'm a disgrace for even thinking they had a chance to compete. I'm going to wear a bag over my head. 2. The guy from Georgia Tech who fielded a bouncing punt, bobbled it, then kicked it backwards into the end zone so a Miami guy could fall on it. Nothing like just handing your opponent a touchdown like you're handing out Halloween candy or flipping a nickel to a bum, especially when it takes your offense 22 plays and 11 minutes just to miss a field goal. 3. Dayne Crist. Nice job. I'll just let you watch. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIwK6HmYfYg&feature=related.

3. @Indiana +9 v Northwestern: I think this line might continue to go up now that it's been confirmed that Dan Persa is going to play, but Northwestern's defense is so bad, I don't think it really matters. There's just no way they should be laying this many points on the road. Of course, with this Indiana team it's risky to back them since the suck ass themselves, but they looked a lot better on offense last week, and teams under first year coaches start to gain some momentum around this time. Also, looking at their remaining schedule, this one is about the best chance they have to get a win, and I think they'll be working hard for it. They've settled on Tre Roberson as their QB, which is probably their best option. In the last 7 meetings, all the games have been close, with the margins being 3,1,2,3, OT and OT. These were much better Northwestern teams, too. The Cats are ranked 102nd in overall defense and 109th against the pass. It's hard for me to think they'll win this in a blowout. If Indiana gets off to a good start, they could win this outright pretty easily. Unless of course NW returns the opening kickoff for a score and then IU fumbles the first offensive snap at their own 14.

4. @Texas A&M -10 v Missouri: Things are starting to unravel for Mizzou, as they lost a tough one at home to Oklahoma St in a game that was closer than it appeared. They are just not having a charmed year. The schedule broke bad for them, and they are turning the ball over in tough spots. last year, the came in to College Station put a whooping on A&M in what was easily their worst game of the year. A&M will be ready to make amends this year, and I think Mizzou will be a willing foil based on their game last week. Mizzou can run it, but A&M is 4th in the country against the run. A&M's weakness on defense is against the pass, but Mizzou has been struggling in that area. Mizou plays pretty good defense but they can't stop the pass, something that A&M excels at. Just more bad timing for the Tigers. If they want to cover this, they'll have to hold A&M under 30, and I don't see it happening.


5. NC State +19 @Florida State: Back to the well here. Nc State after last week is now 24-11 as a road dog since '01. They beat a good Virginia team outright as a dog last week on the road, so I'm going to count them worthy for consideration again. FSU is coming into this one off 2 pretty easy victories, and this will be their second straight against a ho hum opponent at home. Noon start doesn't elicit much enthusiasm either, so I would be surprised if NC State gets FSU's best effort. NC State has also been very opportunistic on defense, leading the country in interceptions while Manuel and Trickett have both had issues tossing the ball around carelessly. FSU has also been weak defensively against the pass, which is NC State's "strength" if you can count on Mike Glennon. They should stay in the game, unless of course, Glennon gets stung by a bee and coughs it up on his own 2 a couple times or something.

6. @Penn State -5 v Illinois: Bad matchup here for the Illini. One thing that we've seen from Ron Zook is that once the snowball starts rolling downhill, he has a hard time coaching his team up to stop it. In the last 3 weeks, Illinois has come out completely flat and not ready to play. When they're playing Indiana, who couldn't get out of their own way, they were able to overcome it. When they play decent teams like Ohio State and Purdue(at least Home Purdue), they can't overcome it. The same is likely to happen this week. For whatever reason, they don't trust Nathan Scheelhaase to do what made him the 8th ranked passer in the country in passer rating the first 6 weeks of the season. They won't be able to run on Penn State, that is for certain, and the sideways, short stuff isn't going to work either. they probably won't be able to protect well enough to go downfield, since they are ranked 105th in sacks against and PSU has been pressuring people all year. Penn state, on the other hand won't have much success on offense either, but they'll have enough for a comfortable win against an Illinois team that needs the bye week pretty badly.

7. @Kansas St +13 v Oklahoma: This is a very public play, but this is just way too many points here. Oklahoma has shown that against good competition, they are not the juggernaut that everybody thinks they are. Missouri torched them all game on defense, Florida State shut them down on offense, and we know what Texas Tech did last week. K State doesn't look like much offensively or defensively on the stat sheet, but they keep doing what it takes to win, and they have moved the ball effectively against everyone they've played. There is a risk that they'll be unable to stop OU's passing game, but I think Bill Snyder has shown that he can scheme with the best of them, and I think you'll see an inspired effort from the Cats. If OU gets off the mat and blows them out, I'll tip my cap.

8. @Oklahoma State -14 v Baylor: It seems like a lot of points, but when the game figures to have have more than 80 points scored, 14 isn't all that much. Baylor is dreadful on defense, and especially dreadful when trying to keep this particular madcap offense under wraps. Last year, Baylor gave up 725 yards to these guys. 55 points seems like an inefficient total considering that yardage. They racked up 8.8 yards per play. In their last game, Baylor gave up 681 yards to an inferior offense to this in A&M, so we can probably expect as many yards/points as the Cowboys feel like dropping in this one. Obviously, Baylor is also capable of some offensive fireworks, but OSU's strength is stopping the pass. They actually rank 15th against the pass nationally.It'll be a high scoring game, but Baylor won't be able to keep up. This line should include another TD cushion for the Bears.

9. @Rutgers +7(buy it) v West Virginia: Say what you will about Rutgers(and I've said a lot), they find ways to stay in every game. They are brutal on offense from a yards per play standpoint (AAAAAAPPP!!), but they've found ways to get points on the board. WV looked absolutely brutal last week, and I'm not sure if Dana Holgerson is the kind of guy to rally the troops into a better performance this week. He's more of a "You guys suck and aren't worthy of my system" guy, in my opinion. Rutgers has lost 16 in a row to WV, so they'll definitely be jacked up to end that streak. I made the mistake of thinking that the Mountainners had a good defense last week, but they couldn't find their ass in a haystack up in that stupid dome. Rutgers has been good defensively, especially at home and has been good in this role. They are also much more likely to win the turnover battle here, and the last time they were dogged in a position like this, they took care of Pitt rather easily.

10. Oregon St +5 @Utah: Another terrible pick by the musings last week was Utah, who mustered only 170 yards of offense against Cal. Now they come home to face Oregon St, yet another subject of a painful musing. Oregon St usually starts to hit their stride about now, and Utah is starting to show where this particular edition of the Utes stacks up within the PAC 12. I think they'll eventually compete under Whittingham, but this team has issues, especially at QB now that Jordan Wynn is hurt. This clown Hays was able to engineer a victory or two outside of the league, but Utah has struggled like crazy in conference, having been beaten soundly by Cal and USC on the road, and Washington and Arizona St at home. Don't really see why they should be favored here, especially since the Beavs are playing much better on both sides of the ball.

11. @Auburn -12.5 v Ole Miss: This is another square play, but I can't see the Rebs throwing out a good performance here, especially at noght against an Auburn squad that should be motivated after shitting the bed on national TV last week. Big time class relief for Auburn and RB Michael Dyer, who should have a big day against the nation's 116th rush defense. Auburn also will be facing an offense no better than the Florida team they held to 6 points two weeks ago. There's a lot of nonsense about avoiding going against Houston Nutt, because he's dangerous when he's desperate. I think the guy's a buffoon, and I am not impressed by his intellect, to say the least. I'm laying the points!

12. @Ohio St +7.5 v Wisconsin: Big situational advantage here for Ohio St, coming off a bye while Wisconsin just lived through their worst nightmare last Saturday night. My guess is that OSU has devised some schemes to allow them to actually throw a forward pass this week, but even if not, I think they will have some success running the ball with Herron and Miller. Also, they now have all of their people back on defense, and I think they'll match up pretty well against Wisconsin. I just don't see the Badgers imposing their will here, and I think they'll get OSU's best effort. If their best effort isn't enough to some within a TD at home against the Badgers, then I'll tip my cap.

13. Clemson -3.5 @Georgia Tech: This might be one of the squarest plays I've ever made, but those seem to be the ones I cash lately. Georgia Tech completely blew the doors off everyone they played early in the year, but that is now starting to look like a function of their competition more than the result of a finely tuned machine. They ran all over Kansas, MTSU, etc, which should bn expected, especially given what Home Run Hire Turner Gill has given us in terms of defensive results this year. In the last 3 weeks, against decent, but not great defenses, GT has averaged 4.37 yards per play. That would be good for 109th in the country if extrapolated through the whole year. Like I said, they've played decent defenses in thiose weeks. Maryland(84th in ypp against), Virginia(32) and Miami(78) are the teams they've faced. Now they face Clemson, who is ranked 65th, but has handled the option pretty well in their last 3 tries against it, much like Miami had previously. Throw in the fact that Clemson has a horseshoe up it's ass, and GT likes to fumble punts into their own endzone and you've got a pretty compelling case for the Tigers. GT also has had loads of problems stopping offenses like this in recent years, and I'll be extremely surprised if Ellington and Watkins don't have a load of big plays. This is a team that scored 59 points last week on only 450 total yards. Let's just admit it's their year, and that they are likely to be able to keep it going against a team that has bad shit happen to it constantly.


Others: It's the mother of all bad spots for Michigan St, coming off two mega emotional games with Nebraska(-4) just licking their chops off a bye and Minnesota, but I don't trust Nebraska's defense enough to recommend it solely on the bad spot when I have to lay more than a FG. if it was 3 or less, it'd be a musing though....Navy is getting 21.5 at Notre Dame, and this would normally be an auto musing, but navy's QB got hurt, and I know nothing about the new kid. Also, navy is absolutely helpless on defense. It's still too many points for this schizophrenic ND team in any case, but not a musing due to the uncertainty of the QB couple with the certainty which is their putrid defense....I lean to Wake(+7) because they are a solid squad playing against a turnover machine in UNC. QB tanner Price has been ailing though, so I'd hate to recommend it and then hear that he's not going to play. UNC is also due to put a nice game together, but until they do, I'll back a nice Wake squad against them getting significant points.....I have a feeling that Tennessee(+3) is going to spoil things for the head Ball Coach this week, even though they are starting a true freshman QB against a dynamite defense. However, South Carolina can't do a thing on offense, and that will especially be the case without Marcus Lattimore. They find ways to screw things up at times as well..this seems like a good time for it....I'll never back Tulane in a musing again, but I am stuck on the fact that they look really good on paper. For example, this week, they appear to have the edge in almost every statistical category at ECU, but they're getting 17 points. I have to take them on principle, despite the fact that they've been blown out on the road against Army and Duke this year, and are coming off a loss to Memphis of all people. That's it for now, take care!!!!!!!