Week 7 Musings

Ho Hum week last week, as the numbered musings went 7-6. That brings the overall record to 42-39-2, for a 51.9% percentage. At least it's on the right side of 50%, but that ain't saying much. it also doesn't give much wiggle room in the event we have the obligatory disaster week of 4-8 or something. Well...we'll see what happens. By the way, a couple of nice games I tried to steer you to. It took all of about 30 seconds for any competent observer to determine that Texas was definitely NOT the correct side to be on in the Red River Shootout. Had Oklahoma taken a knee on every snap on offense, they would have won 21-17. And here I thought Mack Brown would have his charges ready. Mack Brown can go and have relations with himself. I also made a suggestion that it might be a good idea to back the Kentucky Wildcats and their brainiac of a coach, Joker Phillips.Well, that didn't go too well,. I asked if South Carolina can score 21 points and the answer to that was a resounding "YES" as they chalked up 54. Apparently, my assertion that Kentucky had an "adequate defense" was misguided.

Another interesting game from last week was the Nevada/UNLV game. Nevada turned the ball over 5 times, and still won the game 37-0. They outgained UNLV 699-110. UNLV QB Caleb Herring, a week after tossing three pick 6s to Southern Utah of all people, put up a passing line of 1-14 for 7 yards. I think it's still safe to say that UNLV is struggling on the road. Just a hunch, but you might see me on the other side when the Rebs are on the road.

Big game for the Illini this week. They're 6-0 and I have to say that I am completely unfamiliar with this territory for them. We normally play a logically devoid non-conference schedule that usually yields neither wins nor big ticket opponents. Our NC schedule is usually littered with very dangerous opponents who offer no cache if you actually beat them, and lots of times, we go on the road to play them. This year has been different, hence the undefeated record. Ohio St comes to town, who we have not beaten since our freshman year in college in Champaign(strangely, we've beaten them 5 times in Columbus during that span), and even though it's not your older brother's Ohio St, it's still a big game. I won't be playing it, but I can see why OSU is a dog in this case. Give the Illini credit, they are pretty strong in all areas other than special teams. They've stopped the run(9th), they're ok against the pass(32), they lead the nation in sacks, and they are balanced on offense. The problem is that I think OSU will easily be the best defense they've played, and I've seen our offensive line get manhandled by Northwestern's D line, and ASU kept us from a first down for most of the second half. That doesn't bode well with OSU coming to town. I think Scheelhaase will have to throw effectively on them. We scored 17 on ASU...that's about what you can expect in this one. Offensively, I'll be surprised if OSU cracks 250 total yards, so 17 should be enough, I just worry that a special teams score or a killer turnover will make this one a "misleading score". I guess I lean to the under here. Illinois football has been remarkably consistent with one thing. Right when the fanbase starts to get excited, they'll fuck things up. Sometimes it's not they're fault, sometimes it is...I guess I'm just waiting for the shoe to drop so we can go back to not having any true emotional involvement in th college football season.

On to the week.....though I must say one more thing. I did not consider any MAC games this week, no matter how juicy they looked. 0-2 in MAC mentions last week, and 7-13 on the year, so I'm done with those teams. Also, I hate myself for doing this, but I like a lot of favorites this week. Don't think that I didn't notice.

1. @Wisconsin -39.5 v Indiana: This one is pretty simple. Wisconsin will win this game by however many points they feel like winning it by. Indiana has no say in things. They are merely a bystander, playing the part of the kid in the school play who forgets his line and wets his pants on stage. I could explain why this is reality, but I don't suspect anyone needs any explanation. We are now in week 7, and Wisconsin has not even broken a sweat. They've probably run 4 different plays all year, because that's all they've had to run. Indiana played Illinois last week, and got destroyed even though Illinois tried like hell to keep them in the game for the entire first quarter. One of the "bright spots" for Iu was that during garbage time, they used a true freshman at QB, and in between laughably feeble attempts to throw the ball, he looked somewhat shifty while getting sacked. This has excited the Hoosier faithful, who now think they have the second coming of Antwaan Randle El. So there is pressure to start him and begin a new era of completely incompetent football. So imagine....a true freshman QB starting on National TV in Madison, with all his effeminate IU buddies there to "have his back". Destruction. Let's also remember that Bret Bielema seems to enjoy scoring as much as possible. Witness the 83 he put up on this same collection of misfits last year. They need style points. I'm going to say this one ends up at 77-7. Maybe even 91-13.

2. Baylor +9 @Texas A&M: Not a huge fan of going with the public on a road dog here, but I have really lost faith in A&M. I like A&M, I really do, and I want them to do well, so if they cover this good for them, but the matchup doesn't look good. It's tough to cover a sizable number, even at home, when you will have loads of trouble stopping the other team. I think that's going to be the case here, as Baylor has the most efficient passing attack in the country while A&M is ranked 84th, despite leading the country in sacks per game. That tells me that if you get the pass off, bad things happen for Aggies. In addition, Baylor is ranked 8th in yards per carry, and A&M has given up 100 yards+ to almost all of the decent RBs they've faced. On the flip side, A&M should be able to run all over Baylor, but to me, this looks like a game that comes down to the wire, with A&M being somewhat fragile given their previous second half collapses this year. I'll take the 9.

3. Navy +4 @Rutgers: One of these days, Rutgers's house of cards is going to come crashing down. They appear to be incapable of gaining better than 4,5 yards per play in any game, yet here they are 4-1 and perfect against the spread for the year. Last week, they managed to blow out Pitt despite not cracking 300 total yards, converting 3 of 15 3rd downs and having their QB complete 40% of his throws. If you take away a 60 yard busted play screen pass, they had 3.45 yards per play. For comparison's sake, the worst offenses in the country over the past 3 years averaged 4.0, 3.9. 3.6 and 3.5 yards per play for the year. Now they face Navy, whose big weakness is defense. Big class relief here for them on that side of the ball, and as we all know, they are covering machines in this role (19-6). I'm betting that the Rutgers joy ride ends this week.


4. @Michigan St -2.5 v Michigan: The more I read about this game, the more I see people climbing on the Michigan bandwagon. Many people are pointing out the common opponent between these two(ND) and that Michigan beat them while MSU took it on the chin. Truthfully, save the miraculous comeback in which Notre Dame gagged on their tater tots, Michigan's offense did mostly nothing in that game. On the flip side, MSU's defense held ND to 275 total yards. While I am not surprised that Michigan has gotten off to this start, and I think they'll end up having a very nice year, this looks like a bad matchup for them to me. First of all, this will be, by leaps and bounds, the best defense they have faced this year, and it will come on the road, only the second time they've ventured out so far. It can be pointed out that MSU has not faced anyone like DRob and the Michigan offense and that would be true, but they faced him last year in the Big House, under an offense that was completely geared toward his strengths. In that game, as a 5 point dog MSU held Michigan 17 points and one of their lowest yardage outputs of the year. DRob also tossed them 3 picks, something he hasn't avoided this year so far either. If MSU starts getting penetration and starts disrupting things(as #1 ranked defenses tend to do), it might be a long day if Michigan needs to throw to move the ball. On the flip side, I think MSU is more than capable of moving the ball, especially through the air with Cousins. Also don't forget that DRob has a history of getting injured in Big Ten games...definitely a concern for the Wolverines here. I think it'll be back to drawing board for Brady Hoke and co after this one.

5. @North Carolina -3 v Miami: I've been wrong on some ACC games this year that I've loved(VT/Clemson comes to mind) so I might be wrong here, but as Charles Barkley would say, "I doubt it." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIPapliRgQY. (Sorry for that ridiculous interlude). Miami comes in off a very tough loss at VT where they hung in and looked good, especially on offense. Unfortunately, they gave up 38 points to a previously inept VT offense and are currently ranked 97th in yards per play on defense, 103rd against the run and 89th against the pass. They are now going back on the road to face a very balanced offense in UNC, one who sleepwalked through their home game last week and will be ready to redeem themselves in front of the home folks. Miami has to go back on the road for another toughie, and we can certainly expect our pal Jacory Harris to throw it to the Heels at least twice.As long as Brynn Renner(and trust me, I am not excited about counting on determined play from a kid whose name elicits visions of a douchebag)avoids turning the ball over at an alarming rate, I think the Heels get the job done here.

6. @Wyoming -10.5 v UNLV: This should be an auto play for anyone, considering what I wrote above. Also consider that afrer the Reno game, UNLV is now 6-26-1 ATS in their last 33 as a road dog. Actually, Wyoming isn't as bad as their game last week with Utah St either..I kind of like their young QB, they can throw it around a bit. Not that it matters. UNLV on the road is an auto fade. They haven't come within 28 points of anybody on the road since early 2009. Take a look at their road performances over the past 2+ years. Lots of 59-7s in there.

7. @Tulane -1 v UTEP: I hope I'm not asking too much from Tulane to simply win a home game against a team that has won 5 road games in 5 years, and only 2 against teams not from New Mexico. Tulane has been somewhat explosive on offense, having piled up 471 yards on Syracuse last week and 550 on the road at UAB a couple weeks before that. UTEP comes in ranked 116th in yards per play against on defense. Offensively, they are not great either, as it appears to me that Tulane will have the edge on that side of the ball as well. On paper, Tulane looks like about a 10 point favorite to me, so only a complete shit the bed performance will keep them from a victory here.

8. Oklahoma St -7 @Texas: You might be thinking, "What's up with this moron. Last week, he loved 10 points with Texas against Oklahoma but now he DOESN'T like a TD at home against a lesser opponent?" Ok, I will admit, this is a departure from what I thought last week. But consider: If I am a rape victim who had a rough go of it in what I considered a clearly inviting dark alley last week, am I going to enter a slightly less dark alley this week? No, I am not..I have changed my mind about dark alleys. Also, Oklahoma State is a runaway freight train as a road favorite, having gone 11-3 in that role under Gundy, who I am slowly starting to consider one of the best coaches in the country. On the other hand, Texas is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Also, although Oklahoma never needed to even send their offense on the field, they merely toyed with Texas's secondary, and Texas is ranked 98th in the country in sacks...not a good proposition when facing the Pokes pass offense. Texas might have a little easier sledding against Okie St's defense, but if they don't run effectively, I don't see the Horns being able to trade scores with Okie St. Texas is going to have a hard time keeping this one close in my opinion.

9. LSU -17 v Tennessee: Tennessee's only chance in this one is to hope that they can hold LSU down in the low 20's because they aren't going to score on LSU, especially without their QB Tyler Bray, now injured, who I think is a pretty good player. Even with him, Georgia held them to 12 and very little success, so I would think LSU will be thinking offense on defense. They certainly will not be giving up anything significant as long as they are motivated. Defensively, Tennessee is ranked 73rd in the country..not impressive by any stretch, and don't look now, but LSU is getting to be pretty explosive on offense now that they have developed some playmakers at WR, ranking in the top 25 in passer rating and yards per attempt. I'd also expect a couple defensive or ST scores from LSU here..looks like a 38-7 type game to me. Coming off the big home win over Florida last week, I actually like them better on the road than if this game was a day game in Baton Rouge.

10. Alabama - whatever (26.5??) @Mississippi: Ole Miss has no shot of scoring on Alabama..they're ranked 103rd in total offense. They are also ranked 90th against the run, which is terrible news if you have designs on keeping Trent Richardson from steamrolling you all night. This is one of those games that Bama would win by 21 if they never took the defense off the field. 44-0. I hate doing this, but this year, it seems all you have to do is bet on a top10 favorite, then sit back and count your money. That'll probably change in a couple weeks though.

11. Florida -2 @Auburn: Everyone is on Auburn...especially "the experts" but in my opinion, Florida's got the edge here. They've been blown out the last two weeks, but that was obviously against the two best teams in the country, and the two best defenses by a mile. Now they get class relief against an Auburn defense that everyone knows leaves something to be desired. Although the QB situation is in a flux, I think they'll have success running the ball against that defense. Auburn is actually on a bit of a downward spiral right now, as the natives are getting restless with starting QB Barrett Trotter. He'll start this week, but he might not last long. Defensively, Florida remains a solid group, and Auburn has surprisingly fallen to 71st in the country in offense(ypp). They can't throw the ball at all, and I think Florida will be ready to take care of their running game. Florida seems to have the edge on both sides of the coin here, and by a big margin. It'll be tough to win a night game at Auburn, but I think they are the better team and are due for a good performance.

12. @Washington St +21 v Stanford: It's been a death sentence to go against top 10 teams when favored this year, but something's gotta give at some point. Stanford has struggled somewhat against the pass, and I think, especially at home in what has to be their biggest home game in several years, Wazzou will have some success there. Defensively, Wazzou has been compeititive, and Stanford has played absolutely zero decent defensive teams, so I think they might be a little overrated on offense. At some point, Stanford is not going to have every break go their way. Hell, I don't need them to lose, I just need them to win 40-20. I like this Washington St team offensively..I think they can puit up enough points to stay in this game.

13. Utah St -3 @Fresno: Even though Fresno is dogged in this game, there is little likelihood that they get excited to play Utah St, while the Aggies will be licking their chops at a shot at Fresno, a team that has handled them easily in recent years. On paper, this is a mismatch, as Fresno is giving up gobs of yards on defense, especially in the running game, where Utah St excels. Also, Utah St has been stout on defense, and Fresno has yet to get things going with new QB Derek Carr. Utah State is a solid squad. They should have beaten both Auburn and BYU on the road and despite playing a good schedule, they are ranked 9th nationally in ypp on offense and 16th in ypp on defense. Fresno gave up 38 points and 445 yards at home to Ole Miss for crying out loud. Utah St is by far the better squad here.

Others: (All of these were close to being numbereds, but you have to cut somewhere) Lean to Utah(+6.5) to cover a decent sized spread in a game that will probably be very low scoring. First road start for the new Utah Qb who has had turnover problems, but Utah is the much better defense...Also lean to Louisville (+17) in their game in Cincy. They are good defensively and have had some success in the passing game. They've also had a knack for staying in games they don't belong under Charlie Strong, while also losing games they should win. They are much more comfortable in this role....Just a hunch, but I think Mississippi St(+3.5), who has been quietly waiting for South Carolina to come to town amid all the Garcia turmoil in Columbia this week, knocks off the Cocks. I'm skeptical that Connor Shaw is as good as he showed last week, and I think the Gamecocks drop a clunker off their domination of Kentucky....Almost went with UCF (+3.5) as a numbered because I think their pass defense will shut down SMU. June Jones is also 1-9-1 as a home favorite, but I was looking for a little more breathing room on that spread. Plus, I hate betting against RB Zack Line. UCF may win outright anyway though.... Boise (-31) will probably destroy Colorado St.....I think Wake (+6.5) is for real, but I don't like the spot for them coming off the Florida State win. Wake has been good on both sides of the ball, so I think they can have success against VT, but I wanted more than a TD....I think pat Fitzgerald will get a good performance out of the Cats (+6) this week at Iowa. they are so bad defensively that I would need more than a TD here, but I think they will move the ball rather easily on Iowa through the air. Kind of a bad spot for the Hawkeyes here. Despite what they've done this year, you still need a determined performance to knock off the Cats, and road dog is a good role for them.....I think Oregon(-14.5) is going to kill Arizona St. ASU handled them well in Tempe last year, but still managed to find a way to lose by DD. I think Oregon will have the better of the scrimmaging this year, even though LaMichael James is out. I'd like to see ASU hang with them though, because that's Illinois good win on the year. That's it for this week....Take care!!!!!!!!!!!!