Week 8 Musings

7-6 again last week keeps us right up there with a coin flip. 49-45-2 for a 52.12% winning percentage. Almost covering the juice!!! It was actually disappointing last week because at 8:00 we were there with a 7-3 record, but sadly, Wazzou became about the 50th consecutive opponent to succumb to the greatness that is Stanford, Florida muffed about 12 punts(seriously) which led to all of Auburn's points, and then in the late nighter, Utah State completely forgot how to play football in the second half against Fresno. So we ended up at 7-6. I probably should have just gone ahead and faded Illinois in the musings, since I had that game pretty much nailed. I should have known the Illini would go into the fetal position and refuse to trust their players ability to complete, or even attempt a pass longer then 3 yards downfield in the first half. Early in the game, it became clear that the coaches knew that the only way Ohio State was going to put up any significant points was if they gave them the ball in the red zone on turnovers. So they trembled with fear at the thought of turning the ball over. What happens when you do that? Yep, you play so tentatively and with such fear that you turn it over anyway. When my son Jeffrey is bringing a glass of milk into the living room, and I don't say anything to him, he comes in, sits down, takes a drink and enjoys his milk. When I tell him, "Be careful Jeffrey, make sure you don't spill that milk", he invariably will spill it, and will fail to enjoy his milk. Same concept. Upon reflection this week, here was the Zooker's quote. ‘‘Ohio State did what they do,’’ Zook said. ‘‘We maybe sat back instead of going after it. I don’t want to say we played tight, but we didn’t play the way we’re capable of playing. Sometimes you want something so bad .  .  . maybe we [coaches] put too much pressure on [the players].’’ At least he got that right. We'll see where it takes them this week. I'm worried about the Purdue game, but not enough for it to be a musing.

A couple other observations:

1. Rick Neuheisel sealed his fate last night. National TV game against a 1-5 team who just fired their coach and are using Tim Kish as the interim guy, and he gets blown out. It was 42-7 at the half. If that's not bad enough, even when down 35 points, they laid down and couldn't even get anything going offensively against a disinterested defense who was previously ranked 117th in the country in yards per play. If a coach on the hot seat has any chance of survival, his team will come out after getting throttled in the first half and show some pride. Take a look at this drive summary in the second half. http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/boxscore?gid=201110200057&page=drives. What a bunch of gutless chumps. They should have come out in pink leotards. (Although, in breast cancer awareness month, we may have already seen that somewhere.) Oh, by the way, if I seem extra bitter about this, I had the over (60.5).

2. You may have heard that a couple star players for LSU got suspended for this week's game against Auburn. This is how Less Miles says, "No Comment." http://www.wwltv.com/video/mobile/Les-Miles-Im-not-inclined-to-comment-on-suspensions-132204848.html


Ok...on to this week. It'll be interesting to see if the top teams continue to dominate like they have been in recent weeks. It doesn't matter what the spread is , teams like LSU, Bama, Wisconsin, Stanford, etc have been covering. Now you're seeing lines that are staggering. LSU laying 22 to Auburn for example. Overall, it's a tough card, because college football has been a game of blowouts this year. A lot of these middling teams are just shitting their pants grabbing their ankles. It would be nice if some of them could show a little fight, but I haven't seen much of it this year. Maybe it'll happen this week. I guess we'll see.

1. FRIDAY West Virginia -14 @Syracuse: WV has gotten themselves into a groove, having whacked the past 2 teams they've played(Bowling Green and UCONN) by 30+ points and 300+ plus yards each since they dropped over 500 yards on LSU in September. I think it's safe to say that Holgerson's offense is starting to take shape. Also, after a slow start, the new guys on defense are getting comfortable under outstanding DC Jeff Casteel's scheme, as they have risen up to 12th in the country in yards per play. They roll into Syracuse, who has regressed from the progress they made last year. Although they have the potential to have a pretty good passing attack, they have sputtered offensively against worse defenses than they'll face this week. On defense, they're ranked 86th in passer rating against, and if Rutgers can throw for 288 yards with rotating QB's, what is this WV offense going to do to them. Bad things I'm afraid. Also, WV is 7-3 in it's last 10 Big East roadies, while Syracuse is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 at home.


2. Kansas St -10 (buy it) @Kansas: Last year, a much worse, especially defensively, K State team went into Lawrence and destroyed Home Run Hire Turner Gill's team by a 59-7 count. Now they come back to the scene of the crime to play their rival again, though this time they are better on both sides of the ball, while KU wallows well below the dregs of college football as indisputably the worst defense in America. To be fair, Kansas has had no breaks in the schedule, so they've been playing blitzkrieg offenses every week, but with the way Colin Klein has been running the ball, it's hard to see KU being able to slow the Cats sown this week. They give up 6.2 yards per carry. How bad is that? Memphis gives up a full yard fewer per play. They're ranked 115th. I'd also say that we have a mammoth coaching advantage in Bill Snyder's favor here. Although Kansas can move the ball a bit, if K State shows up, they shouldn't have any problem. I'd be surprised if that happens, given Snyder's preparation and the fact that this is a big rivalry game for them.

3. Oklahoma St -7 @Missouri: Here's one that I originally would have liked to take the dog, but after further reflection, and seeing as though Okie St always covers as a road favorite, I'm sticking with Gundy. They are now 12-3 in their last 15 in that role. At first glace, Missouri's stats look pretty good, but they are pretty heavily skewed by the mythical ass kicking they gave Western Illinois, in which they outgained the Leathernecks by 700 yards. Once you take that game away, Missouri falls to 76th against the pass. I think Ok State will continue to have success throwing the ball. Mizzou can run it, but I don't think they'll be able to trade scores with the Cowboys here. I'm going to ride these guys until they fail in this role.

4. Wake Forest -3 1/2 @Duke: I feel dirty doing this because it's yet another road favorite, and a public one at that(aren't they all), but Duke is terrible in this role, having failed to cover both times this year and falling to 16-32 in the past 10 years as a home dog. Wake has been pretty good defensively this year, while Duke has not. Both offenses are capable, but Wake has a big edge on the defensive side of the ball. Wake should be able to throw at will on Duke. Duke also generally loses the turnover battle, and that would be the only way I can see them hanging with Wake here. They'd probably be better off if this game was in Winston Salem.

5. Auburn +21 @LSU: Auburn is not a great team, but they have been scrappy this year, and have proven that they figure out ways to stay in games. I was surprised that they played as well as they did last week at home against Florida. They held the Gators to less than 200 yards of total offense, which is pretty impressive, considering the abuse their defense has taken. Now LSU catches them in a look ahead situation with a couple guys suspended. It's a day game in Baton Rouge, where the Tigers have struggled to get lubed up in the past. They are also going to be without their unquestioned leader, Tyrann Mathieu, among others for engaging in various depraved acts. If Auburn can manage a couple scores, I think they can keep this one a game, as it appears to me to be as good a chance for a shitty effort from LSU as any week this year. Hugely inflated spread.

6. East Carolina +11.5 @Navy: Once again we find Navy in a role for which they are ill-suited. Significant home favorite. They dropped 76 on ECU last year at ECU, but they were in a dog role there, and ECU still put up just as many yards as they did. I think Navy, although likely to move the ball easily, will have just as much trouble getting their defense off the field, as ECU's passing game has hit it's stride the past couple of weeks after struggling at the beginning of the year. They've also been better on defense this year, while Navy 105th overall and 110th against the pass. They will see a steady diet of short tosses in this one. It will be hard for them to cover double digits as a result, especially when they're 3-8 as a DD home favorite in the last 5 years.

7. @Colorado +31 v Oregon: Ok, Colorado, I've already advocated throwing you out of the Pac 10 for not covering 30+ at Stanford, now you are a 31 point dog, at home against Oregon. Can you even show up? Show some pride? Seriously, although they are going to be without some major pieces due to injury, this spread is crazy. Although LaMichael James's injury isn't a big deal because they have a platoon of similar jitterbug speed merchants waiting to fill in, QB Darron Thomas's injury is a big deal. Nobody knows if he is going to play or not after he hurt his knee last week, but he claims that he will. They don't have another QB on the roster who has taken a meaningful snap, and I can't see any reason to risk playing the guy in a game like this. Even if he does play, you would think that they would be pretty careful with him once they get ahead. Colorado has been blown out this year by good teams, but you have to think that they'llbe able to put up a fight at home. Can I hope for 41-13?

8. Georgia Tech +3 @Miami(FL): Georgia tech has apparently gone from world beater to a bunch of dorks in a week, as they are now dogged against a 3-3 Miami team that is ranked 85th in the country in yards per play against. I agree that the Canes have looked impressive the past two weeks, but I wouldn't get too excited about last week. They rode some nice fortune to jump out to a 27-3 lead against North Carolina, then got dominated in the second half and almost blew it on a last second Hail Mary. Now they face a GT team that is pissed off after blowing things last week, and one that is capable of dissecting them into a million pieces. The spread is where it is because Miami has looked good on offense, and GT has always struggled to stop good attacks, but GT is better this year on that side of the ball, and very opportunistic. Jacory Harris has avoided turnovers lately, but let's just say he is overdue for some pick 6s. Lots of value on GT here coming off their bad performance last week. Not much of a home field advantage for Miami here during the day in that stadium either.

9. Army +11 @ Vanderbilt: Despite the fact that Vandy is definitely improved and appears to be on the upswing with the new coaching regime, the fact remains that they generally cannot score. They put up 28 on Georgia last week, but one of the scores came on special teams, and another came on a halfback option pass. they remain 115th out of 120 in total offense, and both of these teams are going to be keeping the ball on the ground for the most part. Army is a methodical bunch. Although Vandy has been good on defense, Army is averaging 400+ yards and ranks 38th in total offense. I don't think Vandy can cover this line without at least 1 defense or special teams score, and Army's defense has been opportunistic as well. They also are much better in this role, and Vandy is definitely not used to it.

10. @Michigan St +7 v Wisconsin: Everyone knows what a juggernaut Wisconsin has been, but they really haven't been tested, and this is their first road game of the year. MSU is no joke on defense. Individually, I still wonder how Wisconsin does it. We know about Russell Wilson, but their receivers are nothing special(Nick Toon is not full strength), and Montee Ball and James White look like system guys. MSU held them under 300 yards last year, and the Spartans are leaps and bounds better on defense than they were last year. I also saw Indiana's running back run very successfully all day on the Badgers last week, believe it or not. (7.10 per carry). If they face an offense that doesn't show up scared shitless and actually moves the ball, we might see a different outcome.


11. Utah +2 @ Cal: At this point, I am ditching the "Home Cal/Road Cal" dynamic for the season, as Cal played like a bunch of idiots last Thursday night at home against USC. Plus, as we know, they are playing their home games at Pac Bell Park in San Francisco. In this matchup. I just think Utah is the better team. They are both struggling on offense, but Utah is vastly superior to Cal on defense, and I think Utah will be able to run on the Cal defense. Utah is ranked 16th in total defense and is coming off a dominating effort at Pitt last week. Although I think he's a complete asshole, Kyle Whittingham knows what he's doing. Over the past 2-3 years, the same can't be said for former golden boy Jeff Tedford at Cal.

12. Washington St -3 v Oregon St: This game is being played in Seattle, so it won't be a true home game for the Cougs. They are coming off a rough outing last week, having been the latest to be mesmerized by the greatness that is Stanford. However, they'll get some nice class relief here, as Oregon State has been having all kinds of trouble stopping people this year, especially away from home. The Cougs sport the country's 17th best pass offense while the Beavs are stuck at 104th against the pass. Defensively, WSU won't be overmatched because the Beavs are not a very efficient outfit on that side of the ball either. On a neutral site, I make the Cougs a TD favorite in this one, and it's going to be more of a home game for WSU than it will be for the Beavs. laying only 3 against this Oregon St away from Corvalis is definitely a bargain.

Others: I originally liked UNC (+10.5) a lot, but there is some question about some of their guys being injured, so I'm cooling on it. But they are a good offense, had a deceiving score last week, and I think they match up with Clemson....Arkansas (-15) heads to Oxford to take on Houston Nutt in his swan song. Ole Miss is brutal in every facet..ranked worse than 100th in every conceivable category, offensively and defensively. However, their schedule has been brutal, especially with solid defenses, so there's a chance they find some class relief with the Hogs, who really struggle against the run. I can't see Ole Miss being in the game though, so I think the Hogs will cover....I'll be on Air Force (+30) because that spread is ridiculous. Air Force is too good a program to be getting that many, and this is the first time Boise has seen them. Having said that, Air Force is allowing 73% completions this year. Kellen Moore might not throw an incompletion, so it's only a mild endorsement...Ohio U(-14) is coming off a loss, but gets Akron this week. No better way to make things right again with the world than a tilt with the Zips...I have a hunch that Iowa State(+21) makes a game of it with A&M. They were as bad as they can be last weel in Columbia, but they've shown some moxie under Paul Rhoads. 21 is a lot to cover for A&M....I really wanted to bet against NC State heavy this week because they stink against the run(and the pass) and Virginia(-5.5) has been a tough team to play against for foes this year. However, the spot is bad for Virginia off the big GT win last week and a bye for NC State. All things being equal though, the weak kneed play of NC State has me expecting a comfy victory for the Cavaliers....that's it for now. Have a good week!