Last week was positive anyway, 6-4 to get the total up to 80-59, a 57.55% clip. Above the do-over goal of 57%. Let's see if we can stay there. Having looked back at the results for the year, I'd have to be pretty happy with the percentage, but a little disappointed in the fact that there have been 3 losing weeks for the year, compared to only 1 last year. Obviously, there have been more successful weeks this year, i.e., weeks of 11-3, 8-2, etc, while last year it was pretty much a collection of coin flips.
A big. bony extended middle finger goes out to Texas Tech who's performance last weekend served as a walking, steaming, real life definition of "shitting the bed". If someone ever asks you what "shitting the bed" means, just pop this tape into the Betamax. In addition of depriving us any meaningful football to watch Saturday night(unless you get Versus, in which case you saw the Oregon St/Arizona game), they have singlehandedly inspired more insipid "Why can't we have a playoff" hand wringing.
I thought I had this Big 12 South thing figured out. It would have gone something like this, going into Saturday night's game in Norman, Texas Tech is in the driver's seat because they control their own destiny. They win, they're in the B12 title game. As for the other two, it seemed to me that Oklahoma was pretty much screwed. In a three way tie, you would have Oklahoma losing to Texas on a neutral field, rather soundly. Then you have Texas losing to Texas Tech, but on the last play of the game, on the road, when their goat of a safety dropped a feathery soft tipped ball on the next to last play. So in my estimation, as long as Tech lost to Oklahoma on something more than the last play of the game, Texas's win on a neutral field trumps everything else, and they get the call.
Now, Texas Tech had their asses kicked so thoroughly, so embarrassingly, that no serious case can be made for them to be in the title game at all. Also, it has thrown a wrench into the whole pecking order of who's win over the other was the most impressive. In the end, I think the whole mess really helps USC. I think the chances are pretty slim that Oklahoma loses in the Bedlam game next week, so now let's consider: I originally would have said that a win for Texas over Oklahoma is the most impressive because it occurred on a neutral field, and the other two wins(OU's over TT and TT over Texas) happened on those team's home fields. But Oklahoma's win was so remarkable that more credence has to be given to it, as much as I don't want to admit it. Here's Bob Stoops's comment after the game:
“The logic of whether to put us in front of Texas? If you can’t do that because they beat us, then you’ve got to keep Texas Tech in front of Texas. What’s logical for one is logical for the other.”
That pissed me off when I read it, because you aren't comparing apples to apples. All this they beat us, we beat them shit only is comparable if the venue was consistent for all of them. But I'd only be right about that if the results were even somewhat consistent. Texas Tech's complete obliteration has thrown a wrench into everything, because although Texas was the only team that could say that they won on something other than their home field, now Oklahoma is the only team that can say they destroyed one of the other two. So now who goes? If Oklahoma wins convincingly at Oklahoma St, I'm betting it's them. If they lose though, Texas Tech goes even though Texas would probably be higher in the BCS standings. Tech , though, proved they can't even compete in a non-friendly environment against an elite squad. So if they win, then what? You can't conceivably allow Texas Tech play Florida after that performance can you? You would need a conference champ, right? If so, USC would be in line, but only if Oregon St loses to Oregon! You also, in my opinion, can't take Texas, they didn't even "win"their division. You'd be down to Penn St, or maybe even Utah! If Tech wins, I think they are out. If they would have competed with Oklahoma, then I would say yes, but not the way they laid an egg last week. By the way, why did the B12 write the BCS standings as the #5 tiebreaker? Couldn't they have come up with something else? How about total point differential between the 3 teams? Non-conference winning percentages for opponents. It seems as though they could have used something better, especially since the coaches poll ballots remain secret until the last week.
Slightly limited card, but let's get rolling. I don't have these in chronological order..check the dates, some might be on Friday, some on Saturday
1. Florida -16 1/2 @ Florida St: I really don't give a rat's ass how high this spread gets, I'm going to be on Florida, because the genius that is Urban Meyer is just too devastating a force for any team in the country to endure. His ability to conjure up ridiculously lame play by all who dare forsake him by playing his team is getting legendary. No doubt it will happen again this week against Florida St. They'll try a fumblerooski from their own one yard line but forget to have the guy pick the ball up off the ground, or someone will field a punt inside their own 5 and the guy will trip and heave the ball into the endzone. This is not to mention the obligatory 95 yard INT return, several questionable spots, a timely roughing the passer penalty or 3...you get the drift. Never mind that this is a hideous matchup for Florida St, since the Seminoles cannot effectively pass the ball against any semblance of a pass rush thanks to their WAC level offensive line. Florida's defense, in addition to being able to possibly outscore FSU by themselves, is also showing signs of being among the best in the country in all phases. The Noles are not a bad team, but they don't match up well at all here. This might be another case of a team having to chase the spread from behind beginning in the second quarter.
2. @Texas Tech -21(buy it down if you have to) v Baylor: This is an overreaction to last week. Baylor is improved, it's true, but they still aren't in any semblance of a position in which they can hope to stop Texas Tech on the road. Obviously, Tech will be looking for redemption from that debacle last week in an effort to get everyone to remember what they were prior to that game:An offensive juggernaut that gets stopped maybe once or twice a year. Baylor, despite all of it's improvement, is still ranked 95th in the country on defense, 99th against the pass. They, like just about everyone else, will almost certainly give up 49-56 points in this one. If that's the case, they need to pile up 30+ to cover. It can happen, yes, but this spread, if floated out a couple weeks ago, would almost certainly be in the 28 range. The only that's changed from a couple weeks ago is that we know now that Tech can struggle in the night time spotlight at Oklahoma. That has no bearing on whether or not Baylor can stop them.
3. Oklahoma -7(buy it down if necessary) @ Oklahoma St: I know, I feel like a complete square taking all these public favorites. However, I can't see how Oklahoma St keeps this one close. People will tell you that OU is a different team on the road, and historically that is true, but it isn't this year. They have pretty much beat the hell out of everyone they have played save for one half in Dallas against Texas. They will continue to be motivated on the quest to the BCS MNC game. I do not think that Okie St has a chance to stop that offense, and although OSu's own offense has been good, I don't think they have enough balance to be able to avoid open possessions, which will have to be kept at a minimum in order to compete here. I think Oki St is a nice squad capable of taking apart the dregs of the Big 12, but this is a different animal. Hell, even if they play fantastically, they could still fail to cover this. It's too important of a game for OU...I think the march continues for them.
4. @Eastern Michigan +10 v Central Michigan: Another rivalry game, and I am hesitant to go on this wagon again because I have been forsaken by EMU a couple times this year, but they're due, right? This is another of those directional Michigan games that in the past has always trended as you would not expect. For example, in this series, 3 of the last 4 have gone to overtime, and the one that didn't, last year, EMU won at CMU outright as a 14 point dog. Don't forget that CMU won the league last year. Now, CMU travels to EMU as a 10 point favorite. Despite their prowess, they have won exactly zero MAC games by more than 10 points this year. On the road, they haven't won a game by more than 3, and that includes games with MAC weaklings Ohio and Toledo. Their weakness remains stopping the pass(#105 in passer rating against), and EMU can throw it around a bit(30th in passing yards), as evidenced by QB Andy Schmitt's 50 completions last week against a previously stingy Temple defense. The Chips are coming off a tough disappointing loss at home to Ball St to end any MAC title hopes for them, and EMU's popular coach just got fired, so motivation is probably going to be on the side of the Hurons(I won't call them the Eagles). I can really see an outright here for EMU. Despite their 2-9 record, they have outgained their opponents on the year.
5. UCLA +10 1/2 @ Arizona St: If Arizona St has proven anything this year, it's that they are a big fat steaming pile of disappointment and despair. Both of these teams come in at 4-6, so I fail to see why ASU should be favored. If I'm an ASU fan, I am so goddamn sick of Rudy Carpenter and this collection of underachievers that I'm telling them to keep a close eye on the proximity of the door to their collective ass on their way out of Tempe. Since a decent opening to the season, ASU has lost 6 of their last 8, with the only wins coming against the two teams that any team in the country could handle, Washington and Washington St. Other than that, they've just shown up, kicked off and pretty much fell into the fetal position until the game was in hand and the other team got comfortable, save for a mildly inspired performance against an Oregon St team that was clearly looking past them. So how are they a 10 point favorite? I have no clue. At least UCLA has been showing up in games, competing at Oregon and at Cal. I think they are in a better spot to compete in this game too. I just can't see ASU as a dd favorite against any real team at this point.
6. UTEP + 5 1/2 @ East Carolina: This is a classic case of two teams matching up with vastly different styles. At this point, ECU is a mere shadow of itself from earlier this year due to a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. UTEp, on the other hand has been coming on, as evidenced most recently by a very close shave loss at Houston last week as a 17 point dog. Now they travel across country to ECU. Offensively, UTEP is very good, especially with QB Trevor Vittatoe under center, as he has thrown for a 31/6 ratio this year. Their defense at times has been atrocious, but has stepped up in recent weeks with some pretty decent performances. ECU, while stingy on defense has been putrid lately on offense, falling short of 300 yards of total offense in back to back weeks against UAB(111th in the country and total defense) and Southern Miss, hardly defensive heavyweights. Perhaps they will find themselves against UTEP accommodating D, but I think it's more likely that their own defense will give up points to the UTEP attack. This matchup kind of reminds me of their game with Houston earlier this year, where the Cougar offense scored early and often and ran away and hid in a blowout. I don't think UTEP will blow them out, but I can see a similar pace of play in this game, so I'll take the points.
7. Kentucky + 4 1/2 @ Tennessee: These two teams will have so much trouble scoring on each other that 4 1/2 points becomes very valuable. To be honest, I don't even know how much Tennessee even tries to score on offense anymore, as they only threw the ball 8 times last week once they got up via freak turnovers against Vandy. I'm not even sure who was playing QB last week, as you cant really tell by looking at the box score, so I'm not going to even try to guess. Kentucky's defense is pretty good, so they'll be able to hold down that pathetic attack. Kentucky will be challenged as well by UT's defense, but in my opinion, this is a toss up game that could go either way. I'd say that Kentucky is a slightly better squad, so I think taking these points seems pretty prudent. UK needs this one to sew up a bowl as well.
8 @Duke +8 1/2 v North Carolina: UNC continues to get outgained every week, and Duke, believe it or not, when healthy, has been able to outgain their opponents at home. They've struggled the past couple of weeks because starting QB Thad Lewis has been out, but he's back this week. Duke's defense has held opponents to a respectable 350 per game at home, and UNC, as we have seen has been struggling to find consistency on offense. I think we might also see a distinct motivational advantage for Duke here. I wouldn't be surprised if Duke wins this one outright.
9. Notre Dame +32 1/2 @USC: I realize that ND has found themselves in a world of hurt here, but this line is a joke. Even if USC covers this, the value side is Notre Dame. ND is a 6-5 team, they have outgained their last 8 opponents, despite the scoreboard results, and defensively they are giving up only 320 yards per game. Obviously, they are stepping up in class against USC here, but USC hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard this year. Look at the previous spreads ND has been faced with...and keep in mind that some of their previous teams under Willingham were helpless. The highest spread USC had to cover was 24. I can tell you that despite their current situation, ND is better now than they were in those years, and USC isn't as explosive either. This is an absolute overreaction to last week's result. Maybe ND doesn't even show up and USC rolls them, but even with a 41-10 type game, ND covers.
10 Auburn +14 1/2 @ Alabama: As bad as Auburn has been this year, they are still averaging only 300 yards against on defense. As we know, Alabama as complete and efficient as they are, are not an offensive juggernaut, as their inability to shake teams like Kentucky would suggest. In this game, I will give some respect to my arch enemy Tommy Tuberville. Say what you will about him...he's a dickface, he smells bad, he'd run over his grandma for a chance at a slightly more convenient parking spot, whatever. He can beat Alabama, as he's done it 6 times in a row. IN addition, the Auburn players will be giving Bama their best shot and Bama might be looking ahead to Florida in their game of the decade next week. I think the possiblity definitely exists that Bama is in for a dogfight, especially if JP Wilson isn't careful and Auburn successfully stops Bama's run game. I would like nothing more than to see Bama run it up on poor Tommy, but I foresee Auburn's best effort of the year this week.
11. South Carolina +1 @ Clemson: Clemson's offense has been pathetic lately, most recently suggested in last week's taffy pull at Virginia, where they ran for a grand total of 20 yards. This week they move up in class against a good defense in South Carolina. I don't see them doing much of anything against that defense, and although I am losing interest in figuring in Steve Spurrier as any kind of coaching advantage these days, he has to have a tactical advantage over Dabo Swinney doesn't he? South Carolina has a healthy hatred for Clemson, so they'll be motivated, and they match up well on the lines in this game as long as they avoid silly turnovers. Clemson is playing for a bowl, as well as respectability so it's a big game for them, but "big games" usually doesn't bode well for teams with feminine tendencies.
Others: I like Virginia a bit getting 8 1/2 at Va Tech because of Tech's weak offense. However, their propensity to turn it over, especially given the venue, scares me off on jumping in with two feet......Georgia Tech is in the same boat. I'd really like to have DD in this game, but 8 1/2 will have to do. Georgia's defense has not proven able to handle assignments, which they will have to do to win this one. They also have shown limited ability to blow people out, and Ga Tech's defense is certainly capable of keeping them in this game.....Nevada(-5) is a very bad matchup for Louisiana Tech, since they stop the run and La Tech is completely unable to throw the ball. Also, Nevada's offense is capable of easily outscoring them. I just don't like it as much because La Tech has won some nice games at home, ad it's very tough for teams to come from West to East and play well for some reason. I actually don't know which way I'll go there, not sure why I'm listing it....interesting aspects of the game I guess, as if anyone cares.....I'll be on NC State +1 at home against Miami because I really like the way they're playing, especially the QB. If I was getting a FG it would be a musing, but this team is still learning how to win, so a collapse and late FG win for Miami is a distinct possibility. New Mexico St is a total Jeckyl and Hyde team due to their schizophrenic coach Hal Mumme, but they are getting 6 points at Utah St. NMSU has a very good offense when motivated, and they have already won at Nevada and took Fresno to the wire on the road, so they can certainly hang within 6 of Utah St......Maryland plays like a bunch of pansies on the road, so going to the cold to play BC seems like a gimme, but the spread will probably reach 7 and BC is playing with a backup QB. They'll probably cover anyway, but I can't wholeheartedly recommend it. That's about it for the week.....Hope everyone has a nice Turkey Day.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Friday, November 21, 2008
Week 13 Musings
Week 13. Where in the hell did the season go? This week marks the last full card of the season, since the Big Ten is done after this week, as are a good portion of the Big 12, the MWC and a couple other conferences. Much better card this week, as far as interesting games, but who am I to judge, since last week worked out just fine. 8-2 for the numbered musings...even the also rans were good, and that's saying something, considering that those tidbits have been about as accurate as a mid 90's Harry Caray Latin baseball player name pronunciation. The mark for the year improves to 74-55 (57.36%). If we can follow it up with another good week, we might have an outside shot at 60%. As I say that, phrases like "pipe dream", "fantasy world" and "unlikely scenario" come to mind rapidly, especially if any of you had the misfortune of opening the email I sent earlier this week on the Kent/NIU game. It's not going to be counted in the overall record because I made it clear that it wasn't a musing, and because it helps my case.
College Basketball has started and I'm already weary of it, probably because I saw Vitale on ESPN tonight. Actually, it's probably because in most cases, games are decided by who shoots significantly better than 3, which team flops better, and which team the refs feel like calling less fouls on. Illinois, who will probably be God-awful this year, just beat Vandy at Vandy, even while shooting under 25% from 2 point range. They hit 11 3's however, so they won, even though the last 3 minutes of the game mirrored how all Illinois games have gone in the late going the past couple of years: Illinois misses a shot, other team gets fouled. Illinois misses a shot, other team gets fouled. Shower rinse repeat until Bruce Weber is effeminately shaking the other coach's hand and racewalking back to the locker room a 7-9 point loser. Only this time, the other team missed a bunch of free throws and they ended up winning. Not that I'm not glad that the Illini and their talentless roster got a nice win. It's true, winning at Vandy is tough no matter when you play them, so good for Coach Bruce I guess.
Here in Indy, they wrote a story in the Indy Star about Joe Tiller since this week is his career windup in the Bucket game, which this year is even more pathetic than usual. It's not Washington/Washington St retard fight level stuff, but it'll be bad. Tiller pretty much got forced out, and maybe he overstayed his welcome, but Purdue should never forget where they were before Tiller. For those who forgot where they were, I'll suggest a word. Irrelevant...and in some seasons, "irrelevant" is being kind. Good luck Danny Hope.
On to this week:
1. @Ohio St -20 1/2 v Michigan: Not quite sure why the oddsmakers aren't making this one in the 28 point range. The last time Michigan found themselves in this type of spot, they were 24 1/2 point dogs at Penn St. In that game, they actually played very well for 3 quarters, and still failed to cover. Motivations in this game don't need to be explained, since I think this the aspects of this rivalry have been covered somewhat by the media in past years, but it's safe to say that Ohio St probably won't mind embarrassing Michigan if they get the chance, and as sure as the sun comes up in the East, they will get the chance. Remember that last year, with all of the talent Michigan had that now resides in the NFL(Henne, Hart, Manningham, Arrington, etc) Michigan rolled up a grand total of 91 yards in Ann Arbor against a defense that pretty much returns intact. Now we all know how I feel about Lloyd Carr, and his offense was woeful considering the talent he had, but they were better on offense last year, we can establish that, I think. Defensively, Michigan has done nothing but suck ass all year, so they'll be trading off between running around like morons trying to catch Terrelle Pryor or getting their collective skulls crushed by Ohio St's running game. This game will not be pretty.
2. @Northwestern +3 v Illinois: So Illinois is in a game they must win on the road to avoid embarrassment(a losing season coming off a Rose Bowl) with the prize being a bowl trip to Detroit to play a MAC team that will probably beat them. They are playing a scrappy 8-3 team that everyone is telling them they are faster and more talented than. HMMM, sounds like an important coaching job and a scenario where said team will have to suck it up, come up big, and avoid situational disadvantages. Boy, everything we've seen from the Illini this year screams success in this scenario, doesn't it? Gimme Northwestern, and I get a FG to boot!!
3. @Purdue -10 1/2 v Indiana: We're kind of Big Ten centric here I guess. At this point, any opportunity to fade Indiana, especially on the road henonly giving up 10 or so must be capitalized on. If that's the case, given recent results, you would assume that the team that's only laying 10 in this scenario must be a sad sack outfit, right? Well, you'd be right, but only for the most part. If you take a look at Purdue's season, they've been bad, but there are some good things about them. Defensively, they've been pretty good, holding Ohio St to 16 points and only 222 total yards, they held Michigan St to only 14 offensive points, and last week, they played Iowa to pretty much a standstill, all on the road. At home., they've even looked good offensively, rolling up 500+ yards on Michigan a couple weeks ago. On the flip side, Indiana truly defines bad. They've given up, their coach should be launched, and they don't have any talent that cares to even suit up. About the only aspect that they have going for them is that almost every team in the country would be pretty much bored with their existence, so they might be able to slink in and out of town with a polite 24-31 point beat down. They don't even have that this week, since Purdue would like nothing more than to do disgusting and demeaning things to them. Like in 2004 when they rolled up 763 yards and 63 points on IU after a couple of especially frustrating losses. Considering that IU has given up an average of 521 yards in their last 3 games, those numbers possible this week.
4. NC State +11 @North Carolina: Here's another case of a team with a struggling offense expected to cover a double digit number against a pretty good opponent. Obviously, NC State has been good to us this year, and once again they are the recipient of a generous spread. Sometimes the books get excited about teams that used to stink but now have shown levels of competence, and they over inflate the lines because bettors are eager to back those teams in an effort to look smarter than everyone else. UNC has had a good year from the get go this year, so I don't know if that's the case with them anymore, but if you really look at what these teams have been doing in recent weeks, you'll notice that they are very evenly matched. UNC is only averaging 350 yards per game, not many first downs either(15 per). They have been very reliant on turnovers, but as long as Russell Wilson is playing QB for NC St, the Pack is not turnover prone. (12/1 TD/INT ratio!!!) Frankly I'll take any team with 11 1/2 points that has a QB with that type of ratio. There's also uncertainty at QB for UNC since Tyler Yates is about healthy now, so both guys might be looking over their shoulder. Throw in the fact that, in this game, 4 out of the last 5 years, the dog has won outright, 3 times as a double digit dog. The dog is definitely the value side here.
5. @Vanderbilt -3 v Tennessee: This spread indicates that on a neutral field these two teams are equal, with a slight edge perhaps to Tennessee. Anyone that has spent any time observing either of these teams would laugh uproariously at that proposition. Vandy has beaten South Carolina, won at Ole Miss, hung tough at Georgia and bludgeoned Kentucky in Lexington last week. Frankly, by looking at their numbers, you'd be hard pressed to pinpoint how they;ve done that, but, they've done it, mostly through solid coaching and disciplined approaches. Now that they have become bowl eligible, they can relax and concentrate on the task at hand, which is to shove it down UT's throats. At this point, Tennessee is completely uninterested, and although they might show some life at kickoff, as soon as they have a couple bad things happen to them, they'll crawl back into whatever hole they emerged from that morning. Vandy has run it on people this year, and although they might have some difficulty moving it consistently on the Vols relatively sturdy defense, they'll find some cracks once the mood changes.
6. Army +19 1/2 @ Rutgers: This line is inflated based on some crazy results in recent Rutgers games. Last week is a good example, as Rutgers forced 6 turnovers which snowballed into a 49-16 win over South Florida, who quickly is fading into oblivion. They also thrashed Pittsburgh, putting up 54, but that was again a bit misleading as they completed 14 passes and scored TDs on 6 of them. Flukish I would say. In that game they were outgained and gave up 150 yards and 4 TDs on the ground to Le Sean McCoy. Now they return home to a hero's welcome after all this plundering and tee it up with Army, who has quietly put together a nice season by Army standards. They stand at 3-7, and have not been blown out in any game since their farcical opener against Temple in which they lost 42-7 despite outgaining Temple by more than 100 yards. Their success has been their running game, and a good example of their progress was in their game against Air Force 3 weeks ago where they beat the Flyboys at their own game, outgaining them 250-177 yet falling short. It indicates their competence on defense. They have outgained their last 5 opponents, the aforementioned Air Force as well as some other decent squads mixed in there. They will be able to move the ball on Rutgers. As long as Rutgers doesn't pull another horseshoe out of their rectum on the turnover front, Army will give them a game.
7. @Maryland +1 v Florida St: I am skeptical about Florida St's ability to win in this game because it looks entirely likely that they will have a helluva time trying to stop Maryland's ground game. In road games this year, including a couple that they've won against teams that don't run it as well as Maryland does, they've given up 6.1 yards per carry. Maryland has a nice two headed monster running attack going right now in DaRel Scott and Davin Meggett(Dave Meggett's kid), and their QB Napolean Dynamite/Sunshine doesn't really make many mistakes. Offensively, FSU's offensive line is very poor, as they have had difficulty getting any consistent running game going. Antone Smith and Jermaine Thomas have had some success breaking off big runs at a time, but it's either feast or famine for them. Looking at these two teams on paper, they have the same record, and unit by unit, I think Maryland is a little bit better than Florida St. Since I'm getting a point and my the better team, in my opinion, is at home, I guess there's not really a question here, now is there?
8. @Virginia +3 (Buy from 2 1/2)V Clemson: Historically, Al Groh has been a fantastic home dog, and when you are in that spot against an underachieving type team, it makes it that more attractive. Clemson, since the Tommy Bowden ouster, has been jeckyl and hyde. This line is probably an effect of Clemson's easy win over Duke last week, but you can throw that out because Duke QB Thad Lewis got hurt early, and everything unraveled for the Devils. Clemson gives up yards on the ground, and Cedric Peerman is healthy this week, so that should work in Virginia's favor. QB Marc Verica has cooled off in recent weeks, but he is capable, giving Virginia a balanced attack. At times on the road, Clemson has looked anemic, which there really is no excuse for given their talent, but we've been over that....it's because they're a bunch of pussies. Keep in mind that only 3 weeks ago this Virginia team went into Atlanta and beat Georgia Tech pretty soundly, so they have the chops to have their way with Clemson. Both are still bowl-alive, so the motivation is there. Going with dogs in the ACC has been pretty money, so I'll take the home dog in this case.
9. @Penn St -14 v Michigan St: First of all, this line sits at 15 right now, having come down from 15 1/2. That jackoff Dr Bob sent it up to 15 1/5 yesterday afternoon from 14, and now it's starting to come down. Based on the size of the line, I would not lay more than 14, so my goal would be to have it come to 14 1/2 and then buy it to 14. In the end, I'll be betting it regardless, but the possibility of a backdoor is too good to recommend it at more than 14. I think Vegas is begging people to take Michigan St in this game, and I can see why. Michigan St is 9-2, certainly a great record.( I won't get into how they should have at least 2 more losses) They have ridden Javon Ringer like a rented mule all year, at times unnecessarily in my opinion. He's generated a lot of hype, but he's been workmanlike at best. Consider: against Purdue, he ran for 3.8 ypc. V Wisconsin, 2.6. Against Northwestern 3.5. Do you think he'll be able to do any better than that at Penn St? I don't either. Then they're stuck relying on Brian Hoyer and his 48% completion ratio. Lots of 3 and outs are in store for the Spartans here.To be honest, the dominant running back in this game will be Evan Royster from Penn St. Penn St is averaging 6.3 yards per carry at home, and more than 5 per for the year. Michigan St has given up big rushing numbers to just about every RB they've faced this year, giving up 5.5 per clip...that's brutal. Tyrell Sutton gashed them for 6.3 ypc, the Wisconsin RBs were 6.38(in E Lansing)Shonn Grene ran for 5+. Even Indiana ran for 6.8 yards per carry..not a good sign. We haven't seen a Penn St ambush for a few weeks, but it's coming this week. 63% of the public are on MSU, very rare for a sizable dog....it all adds up to a blowout. To be safe, though, get the spread to 14.
10 Iowa St +10 @ Kansas St: The fact that K State and their punching bag defense is giving up 10 to anyone is a joke. Iowa St is a walking punchline themselves, but come on. To say that K State has possibly given up is like saying Mike LaVette isn't quite sure about this Obama fellow. Their fan base is already wearing bags over their heads. Iowa St, in spite of all their problems, at least thinks it has a decent coach and has some underclassmen who have had some success o offense. They've run it ok, and Austen Arnaud has thrown it capably. I think at the end of the day you have two sad sack teams, but one has given up while the other one hasn't and the one that hasn't is getting 10 points. As for the home field, fans with bags on their heads generally don't cause much of a home field advantage in my opinion.
Others.....The LSU/Ole Miss line has fallen all the way to 3 1/2..I liked it from an Ole Miss standpoint when it opened at 7, but there's no value now. Still, though, I really for some reason think Ole Miss is going to beat them outright, so maybe a FG helper is of value. I kind of hope not, though because I'd like to see LSU in the Cotton Bowl against one of the Big 12 heavies.......I might break with tradition and actually bet on Wake laying a slight number (2)at home to BC this week. The spot is really bad for BC. They're coming off two very emotional games(ND and at FSU) in which they got a ton of bog play turnovers, including an 80 yard INT return last week and 2 big ones against ND the week prior. That's not likely to happen against Riley Skinner and Wake. I think Wake takes care of them this week.....Tulane is so banged up that they are a shell of themselves from earlier in the year. Now they have to travel to Tulsa to deal with a Golden Hurricane team that just got the Holy Bejeezus beaten out of them against Houston last week(70-30!!!). They will be mad, and they will be successful. Todd Graham, the Tulsa coach isn't afraid to run it up. 28 probably won't be close to enough.....I also, believe it or not, think Wyoming can beat Colorado St this week. Even though CSU is still playing for a bowl, they have all kinds of trouble stopping the run, and that's something that Wyoming can do...run the ball. They are getting 2 at home in what will probably be Joe Glenn's swan song. Wyoming also plays capable D at home. I can see them winning this one, even though CSU has been a dear friend of the musings this year. That's it for this week..hopefully we don't see a regression to the mean this week.
College Basketball has started and I'm already weary of it, probably because I saw Vitale on ESPN tonight. Actually, it's probably because in most cases, games are decided by who shoots significantly better than 3, which team flops better, and which team the refs feel like calling less fouls on. Illinois, who will probably be God-awful this year, just beat Vandy at Vandy, even while shooting under 25% from 2 point range. They hit 11 3's however, so they won, even though the last 3 minutes of the game mirrored how all Illinois games have gone in the late going the past couple of years: Illinois misses a shot, other team gets fouled. Illinois misses a shot, other team gets fouled. Shower rinse repeat until Bruce Weber is effeminately shaking the other coach's hand and racewalking back to the locker room a 7-9 point loser. Only this time, the other team missed a bunch of free throws and they ended up winning. Not that I'm not glad that the Illini and their talentless roster got a nice win. It's true, winning at Vandy is tough no matter when you play them, so good for Coach Bruce I guess.
Here in Indy, they wrote a story in the Indy Star about Joe Tiller since this week is his career windup in the Bucket game, which this year is even more pathetic than usual. It's not Washington/Washington St retard fight level stuff, but it'll be bad. Tiller pretty much got forced out, and maybe he overstayed his welcome, but Purdue should never forget where they were before Tiller. For those who forgot where they were, I'll suggest a word. Irrelevant...and in some seasons, "irrelevant" is being kind. Good luck Danny Hope.
On to this week:
1. @Ohio St -20 1/2 v Michigan: Not quite sure why the oddsmakers aren't making this one in the 28 point range. The last time Michigan found themselves in this type of spot, they were 24 1/2 point dogs at Penn St. In that game, they actually played very well for 3 quarters, and still failed to cover. Motivations in this game don't need to be explained, since I think this the aspects of this rivalry have been covered somewhat by the media in past years, but it's safe to say that Ohio St probably won't mind embarrassing Michigan if they get the chance, and as sure as the sun comes up in the East, they will get the chance. Remember that last year, with all of the talent Michigan had that now resides in the NFL(Henne, Hart, Manningham, Arrington, etc) Michigan rolled up a grand total of 91 yards in Ann Arbor against a defense that pretty much returns intact. Now we all know how I feel about Lloyd Carr, and his offense was woeful considering the talent he had, but they were better on offense last year, we can establish that, I think. Defensively, Michigan has done nothing but suck ass all year, so they'll be trading off between running around like morons trying to catch Terrelle Pryor or getting their collective skulls crushed by Ohio St's running game. This game will not be pretty.
2. @Northwestern +3 v Illinois: So Illinois is in a game they must win on the road to avoid embarrassment(a losing season coming off a Rose Bowl) with the prize being a bowl trip to Detroit to play a MAC team that will probably beat them. They are playing a scrappy 8-3 team that everyone is telling them they are faster and more talented than. HMMM, sounds like an important coaching job and a scenario where said team will have to suck it up, come up big, and avoid situational disadvantages. Boy, everything we've seen from the Illini this year screams success in this scenario, doesn't it? Gimme Northwestern, and I get a FG to boot!!
3. @Purdue -10 1/2 v Indiana: We're kind of Big Ten centric here I guess. At this point, any opportunity to fade Indiana, especially on the road henonly giving up 10 or so must be capitalized on. If that's the case, given recent results, you would assume that the team that's only laying 10 in this scenario must be a sad sack outfit, right? Well, you'd be right, but only for the most part. If you take a look at Purdue's season, they've been bad, but there are some good things about them. Defensively, they've been pretty good, holding Ohio St to 16 points and only 222 total yards, they held Michigan St to only 14 offensive points, and last week, they played Iowa to pretty much a standstill, all on the road. At home., they've even looked good offensively, rolling up 500+ yards on Michigan a couple weeks ago. On the flip side, Indiana truly defines bad. They've given up, their coach should be launched, and they don't have any talent that cares to even suit up. About the only aspect that they have going for them is that almost every team in the country would be pretty much bored with their existence, so they might be able to slink in and out of town with a polite 24-31 point beat down. They don't even have that this week, since Purdue would like nothing more than to do disgusting and demeaning things to them. Like in 2004 when they rolled up 763 yards and 63 points on IU after a couple of especially frustrating losses. Considering that IU has given up an average of 521 yards in their last 3 games, those numbers possible this week.
4. NC State +11 @North Carolina: Here's another case of a team with a struggling offense expected to cover a double digit number against a pretty good opponent. Obviously, NC State has been good to us this year, and once again they are the recipient of a generous spread. Sometimes the books get excited about teams that used to stink but now have shown levels of competence, and they over inflate the lines because bettors are eager to back those teams in an effort to look smarter than everyone else. UNC has had a good year from the get go this year, so I don't know if that's the case with them anymore, but if you really look at what these teams have been doing in recent weeks, you'll notice that they are very evenly matched. UNC is only averaging 350 yards per game, not many first downs either(15 per). They have been very reliant on turnovers, but as long as Russell Wilson is playing QB for NC St, the Pack is not turnover prone. (12/1 TD/INT ratio!!!) Frankly I'll take any team with 11 1/2 points that has a QB with that type of ratio. There's also uncertainty at QB for UNC since Tyler Yates is about healthy now, so both guys might be looking over their shoulder. Throw in the fact that, in this game, 4 out of the last 5 years, the dog has won outright, 3 times as a double digit dog. The dog is definitely the value side here.
5. @Vanderbilt -3 v Tennessee: This spread indicates that on a neutral field these two teams are equal, with a slight edge perhaps to Tennessee. Anyone that has spent any time observing either of these teams would laugh uproariously at that proposition. Vandy has beaten South Carolina, won at Ole Miss, hung tough at Georgia and bludgeoned Kentucky in Lexington last week. Frankly, by looking at their numbers, you'd be hard pressed to pinpoint how they;ve done that, but, they've done it, mostly through solid coaching and disciplined approaches. Now that they have become bowl eligible, they can relax and concentrate on the task at hand, which is to shove it down UT's throats. At this point, Tennessee is completely uninterested, and although they might show some life at kickoff, as soon as they have a couple bad things happen to them, they'll crawl back into whatever hole they emerged from that morning. Vandy has run it on people this year, and although they might have some difficulty moving it consistently on the Vols relatively sturdy defense, they'll find some cracks once the mood changes.
6. Army +19 1/2 @ Rutgers: This line is inflated based on some crazy results in recent Rutgers games. Last week is a good example, as Rutgers forced 6 turnovers which snowballed into a 49-16 win over South Florida, who quickly is fading into oblivion. They also thrashed Pittsburgh, putting up 54, but that was again a bit misleading as they completed 14 passes and scored TDs on 6 of them. Flukish I would say. In that game they were outgained and gave up 150 yards and 4 TDs on the ground to Le Sean McCoy. Now they return home to a hero's welcome after all this plundering and tee it up with Army, who has quietly put together a nice season by Army standards. They stand at 3-7, and have not been blown out in any game since their farcical opener against Temple in which they lost 42-7 despite outgaining Temple by more than 100 yards. Their success has been their running game, and a good example of their progress was in their game against Air Force 3 weeks ago where they beat the Flyboys at their own game, outgaining them 250-177 yet falling short. It indicates their competence on defense. They have outgained their last 5 opponents, the aforementioned Air Force as well as some other decent squads mixed in there. They will be able to move the ball on Rutgers. As long as Rutgers doesn't pull another horseshoe out of their rectum on the turnover front, Army will give them a game.
7. @Maryland +1 v Florida St: I am skeptical about Florida St's ability to win in this game because it looks entirely likely that they will have a helluva time trying to stop Maryland's ground game. In road games this year, including a couple that they've won against teams that don't run it as well as Maryland does, they've given up 6.1 yards per carry. Maryland has a nice two headed monster running attack going right now in DaRel Scott and Davin Meggett(Dave Meggett's kid), and their QB Napolean Dynamite/Sunshine doesn't really make many mistakes. Offensively, FSU's offensive line is very poor, as they have had difficulty getting any consistent running game going. Antone Smith and Jermaine Thomas have had some success breaking off big runs at a time, but it's either feast or famine for them. Looking at these two teams on paper, they have the same record, and unit by unit, I think Maryland is a little bit better than Florida St. Since I'm getting a point and my the better team, in my opinion, is at home, I guess there's not really a question here, now is there?
8. @Virginia +3 (Buy from 2 1/2)V Clemson: Historically, Al Groh has been a fantastic home dog, and when you are in that spot against an underachieving type team, it makes it that more attractive. Clemson, since the Tommy Bowden ouster, has been jeckyl and hyde. This line is probably an effect of Clemson's easy win over Duke last week, but you can throw that out because Duke QB Thad Lewis got hurt early, and everything unraveled for the Devils. Clemson gives up yards on the ground, and Cedric Peerman is healthy this week, so that should work in Virginia's favor. QB Marc Verica has cooled off in recent weeks, but he is capable, giving Virginia a balanced attack. At times on the road, Clemson has looked anemic, which there really is no excuse for given their talent, but we've been over that....it's because they're a bunch of pussies. Keep in mind that only 3 weeks ago this Virginia team went into Atlanta and beat Georgia Tech pretty soundly, so they have the chops to have their way with Clemson. Both are still bowl-alive, so the motivation is there. Going with dogs in the ACC has been pretty money, so I'll take the home dog in this case.
9. @Penn St -14 v Michigan St: First of all, this line sits at 15 right now, having come down from 15 1/2. That jackoff Dr Bob sent it up to 15 1/5 yesterday afternoon from 14, and now it's starting to come down. Based on the size of the line, I would not lay more than 14, so my goal would be to have it come to 14 1/2 and then buy it to 14. In the end, I'll be betting it regardless, but the possibility of a backdoor is too good to recommend it at more than 14. I think Vegas is begging people to take Michigan St in this game, and I can see why. Michigan St is 9-2, certainly a great record.( I won't get into how they should have at least 2 more losses) They have ridden Javon Ringer like a rented mule all year, at times unnecessarily in my opinion. He's generated a lot of hype, but he's been workmanlike at best. Consider: against Purdue, he ran for 3.8 ypc. V Wisconsin, 2.6. Against Northwestern 3.5. Do you think he'll be able to do any better than that at Penn St? I don't either. Then they're stuck relying on Brian Hoyer and his 48% completion ratio. Lots of 3 and outs are in store for the Spartans here.To be honest, the dominant running back in this game will be Evan Royster from Penn St. Penn St is averaging 6.3 yards per carry at home, and more than 5 per for the year. Michigan St has given up big rushing numbers to just about every RB they've faced this year, giving up 5.5 per clip...that's brutal. Tyrell Sutton gashed them for 6.3 ypc, the Wisconsin RBs were 6.38(in E Lansing)Shonn Grene ran for 5+. Even Indiana ran for 6.8 yards per carry..not a good sign. We haven't seen a Penn St ambush for a few weeks, but it's coming this week. 63% of the public are on MSU, very rare for a sizable dog....it all adds up to a blowout. To be safe, though, get the spread to 14.
10 Iowa St +10 @ Kansas St: The fact that K State and their punching bag defense is giving up 10 to anyone is a joke. Iowa St is a walking punchline themselves, but come on. To say that K State has possibly given up is like saying Mike LaVette isn't quite sure about this Obama fellow. Their fan base is already wearing bags over their heads. Iowa St, in spite of all their problems, at least thinks it has a decent coach and has some underclassmen who have had some success o offense. They've run it ok, and Austen Arnaud has thrown it capably. I think at the end of the day you have two sad sack teams, but one has given up while the other one hasn't and the one that hasn't is getting 10 points. As for the home field, fans with bags on their heads generally don't cause much of a home field advantage in my opinion.
Others.....The LSU/Ole Miss line has fallen all the way to 3 1/2..I liked it from an Ole Miss standpoint when it opened at 7, but there's no value now. Still, though, I really for some reason think Ole Miss is going to beat them outright, so maybe a FG helper is of value. I kind of hope not, though because I'd like to see LSU in the Cotton Bowl against one of the Big 12 heavies.......I might break with tradition and actually bet on Wake laying a slight number (2)at home to BC this week. The spot is really bad for BC. They're coming off two very emotional games(ND and at FSU) in which they got a ton of bog play turnovers, including an 80 yard INT return last week and 2 big ones against ND the week prior. That's not likely to happen against Riley Skinner and Wake. I think Wake takes care of them this week.....Tulane is so banged up that they are a shell of themselves from earlier in the year. Now they have to travel to Tulsa to deal with a Golden Hurricane team that just got the Holy Bejeezus beaten out of them against Houston last week(70-30!!!). They will be mad, and they will be successful. Todd Graham, the Tulsa coach isn't afraid to run it up. 28 probably won't be close to enough.....I also, believe it or not, think Wyoming can beat Colorado St this week. Even though CSU is still playing for a bowl, they have all kinds of trouble stopping the run, and that's something that Wyoming can do...run the ball. They are getting 2 at home in what will probably be Joe Glenn's swan song. Wyoming also plays capable D at home. I can see them winning this one, even though CSU has been a dear friend of the musings this year. That's it for this week..hopefully we don't see a regression to the mean this week.
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Week 12 Musings
Back on track last week...somewhat, as the numbered musings went 7-5-1. That gets the number back to about 55.5% for the year(66-53), short of the do-over goal of 57%, but still strong enough to make a profit, as long as you're not laying -150. I think I mentioned that I have been absolutely terrified of a possible Minnesota appearance in one of the New Year's Day bowl games, but no worries. They have cooperated the last two weeks and coughed up a couple hair balls in back to back home losses to Northwestern without their skill people and that shell of a former competent program, Dick Rod's Wolverines. A throttling at the hands of Michigan, no less. Now they stare down an unpleasant task of facing a couple more legit squads in their windups in Wisconsin this week and at home against Iowa next week. So instead of embarrassing the Big Ten further(if that's possible these days) by getting shellacked in a Florida Jan 1 game, the Goofers will only inflict whatever embarrassment is garnered these days by yet another loss to the MAC, since they'll probably be headed to the Motor City bowl to play Central Michigan or Ball St. Fantastic.
In light of Texas Tech's demolition of Okie St, I decided to look ahead to the remainder of the schedule and try to make sense of what might transpire over the coming weeks, as it relates to the BCS MNC game. I cannot express how much I love this shit, and I suppose that makes me some sort of dork, though my guess is that I might have earned that distinction long ago. Maybe it was when I got picked off first in Little League, despite the fact that league rules prohibit leading off. . Maybe it was the fact that in that instance, it was the pitcher who tagged me out, having sprinted over from the pitcher's mound to tag me while I was watching the train rumble by behind the backstop at DRLL's A field. Whatever. So I spent some time breaking down this crap....here's the way I see it:
1. Alabama and Florida go the rest of the season unbeaten, but Florida surprisingly catches some good fortune and beats Bama in the SEC title game with the help of 3 sub 10 yard TD drives. Urban Meyer decrees it, SO IT WILL BE SO!!.
2. Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma beats Okie St in Stillwater, resulting in a 3 way tie in the B12 South between Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahomo. Tiebreakers don't help until you get to #5, which means the BCS standings will determine who goes to the B12 title game. That will end up beng Texas, since the were the only one of the three to win on a neutral site in the triangle of games..the other two just held serve at home. So they go to Kansas City, where they BETTER beat Missouri, or else the whole thing goes up in flames. If they do, they'll get Florida in the MNC.
3. Southern Cal will get their secret wish of avoiding pounding the Big Ten runner up in the Rose Bowl because Oregon St runs the table and wins the Rose Bowl berth. It figures that this will happen the one year the actual Big Ten champ finally plays in the Rose Bowl(Penn St). As a result, USC gets Bama in a fantastic Sugar Bowl. Unfortunately, the Rose Bowl would get a rematch of Penn St's bloody beat down from week two over the Beavers. No big deal I guess.
4. Nobody gives a rat's ass about the ACC or the Big East, but they'll hold a shitfest in the Orange Bowl...I'll say it ends up being Wake v Cincinnati. God help us. The spread will be 3 one way or the other, and it'll probably push.
5. Texas Tech draws Utah in the Fiesta, as the Fiesta people decide they've had enough of Bob Stoops and his infernal choke jobs.
Of course, there will probably be some sort of silliness here in the next couple of weeks to throw a wrench into the proceedings. Hopefully not too much though, because I do NOT want to see Pete Carroll in the MNC game. F that dude.
On to the week, though I must admit...not much of a card. Especially at night. I've actually got social plans this Saturday(work related, of course), but this is the week to have them, since there ain't much to see.
1. Notre Dame -4 v Navy(Baltimore): As most of you may or may not know, I have developed somewhat of an unhealthy fascination with Navy, having actually found and subsequently visited some Navy message boards. I frequent this board weekly to find out whether or not Kaipo's season long hammy twinge has subsided, and whether or not he will play. If he does, generally Navy becomes a good bet, becuase, like most Navy QB's he knows what he is doing. More times than not, the wildly brutal backup, Jarrod Bryant plays in his place, and Navy goes from one of my favorite squads to back to an unbetable pile of dreck. Throughout the season, Navy has proven it's lack of worth.All of it's "impressive" wins are the result of an orgy of turnovers provided by the opposition(Wake and Air Force for example), and when teams haven't turned the ball over, i.e. Pitt a few weeks ago, they've found themselves in trouble. Defensively, they cannot hang with an offense like Notre Dame's, even if the Irish fails to show up, which they won't. Jarrod Bryant is indeed starting this week. Since Ken Niumatuololololo doesn't seem to be a complete basket case, I'll go ahead and assume he'll move to his somewhat capable 3rd string QB, Ricky Dobbs at some point early in the second quarter. It's possible by then that ND will be up 17-0 by that point, so it will probably be too late.
2. @Maryland +3 v North Carolina: It must be nice to have been outgained for the season by your opposition, yet still be favored on the road against a team going to a bowl. That's the case for the Tar Heels this week as they tee it up with the bipolar Maryland Terrapins. Maryland s among the most inconsistent teams in creation, as they have found ways to absolutely dominate Wake one week, then lose badly to MTSU the week after. They have been good at home, however, notching a 5-0 record in College Park this season. Offensively, they have the weapons necessary to win this game easily, and their defense can hold their own. I also like MD's offense, as the switch out of Steffy to Mr Sunshine has garnered some passing competency, and their run game remains good. I see an upset here, albeit a small one.
3. Nebraska -6 @Kansas St: Over the past several weeks, Nebraska has played much better than they did at the beginning of the season, when Va Tech's junior high offense ran them ragged and then Missouri toyed around with them the following week. Since then, however, they have looked good, starting with their trip to Lubbock in which they were about the only team to have figured out any way to control Tech's offense. Other than their obligatory thrashing at Oklahoma, they've pretty much dominated everyone else. They still have problems with good passing games, but their problems pale in comparison to K St's on the defensive side of the ball. It's been a well known fact that K St can't stop anyone on defense, and theie entore coaching staff is a collection of lame ducks as a result. At this point, K State is probably incapable of covering anything other than a 20+ spread against a disinterested superior opponent. This week, they have a smaller than a touchdown spread against a motivated superior opponent in an environment where the fans will probably be more interested in expressing their ire for the outgoing collection of dolts that sent their program back to laughingstock status than providing some sort of home field advantage to the inept juco mercenary thugs wearing their beloved colors.
4. @Nevada -15 v San Jose St: I'm still a little stung from the historically inept offensive performance turned in by SJSU last week. In case you didn't notice(and if you didn't good for you) they polluted the musings last week by allowing themselves to fall prey to the jungle cat-like savagery of.....Louisiana Tech? In that game, here's what they accomplished, against a defense that could have been previously characterized as "run of the mill", "uninteresting", "milquetoast" or "forgettable". At home, mind you, against a team that traveled across the entire country: Zero points. 148 total yards(62 on a fluke tipped pass, leaving 86 for the remainder of the 56 plays they ran). 6 first downs. Now they travel to Nevada to face a team that has quite a bit to play for in a possible bowl berth, and who is hitting their stride offensively. On defense, they are ranked second in the country against the run, so SJSU will have to get dynamic with the passing game to have any success, a laughable suggestion. Nevada is the #5 offense in the country, #1 in rushing. There is really no way SJSU can keep up with them in this one, unless all of Nevada's skill guys get absconded on the way to the stadium.
5. @Colorado St +2 v New Mexico: I really can't see why Colorado St is the underdog in this game. Perhaps people are still impressed by their 70-7 win over San Diego St several weeks ago. CSU was actually made the favorite when lines came out, but the betting public(maybe some admittedly sharp money) has flipped the numbers. Colorado St has been good at home this year, playing very close with both BYU and TCU and beating a very good offensive team in Houston early in the year. New Mexico has been eliminated from bowl contention while CSU, despite a 4-6 record, can get to bowl eligibility with wins in this game and next week at Wyoming. Very doable. There is also a mismatch between a capable CSU passing offense and a New Mexico D that has been giving up a lot of big plays in the passing game. For the year, New Mexico's QB's have a 3/13 ratio..the inability to pass effectively does not lead to success in sustaining drives on the road. If they can run it down CSU's throats for 4 quarters, God love 'em, but I'm guessing they'll have to do more than that.
6. @Oregon St -3 v California: As I mentioned before, I think Oregon St is going to run the table and win the BCS bid for the PAC 10. I might be the only person who thinks that though, and I believe that the Beavs have read all about it. I happen to think that Mike Riley is a really good coach, especially in an underdog role. They aren't dogs here per se, but their overall situation still can be classified as that. I comes Cal, who has the rep and overall feel of a "contending team" so most people might see this as a great opportunity for the Beavs to drop one. I don't really see it. Cal is coming off a poor performance on the road at SC(offensively, at least) and they are once again flip flopping QBs. They venture out on the road again this week against a team with everything to play for, who is well coached, is balanced on both sides of the ball and Cal only gets 3 points? Not enough in my opinion. I'm not actually sure who is going to play QB for Oregon St, but it doesn't really matter. What used to be a major handicap for OSU in the past has turned to a strength, as both Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao have shown they can move the ball through the air. They also have a very good running game and a solid defense. This is a legit squad.
7. @Michigan -3 v Northwestern:Obviously, Michigan doesn't really have anything to play for when it comes to their original goal setting at the beginning of the year, but they are making some progress, and Dick Rod is undoubtedly spinning their recent success and improved competitiveness as progress. They are on an upswing at this point, and played very well last week in their demolition of Minnesota. Now Northwestern limps into Ann Arbor coming off a shellacking from Ohio St, and they are banged up to boot. They pretty much have to win this one outright to cover this number, nd I think that's asking a lot of the Cats right now. If they get up off the mat and win at the Big House, kudos will be in store for Pat Fitzgerald. I have a feeling though that beating Michigan now is going to be a lot tougher than if they would have played them in October.
8. Texas -13 @Kansas: I hate to jump on the bandwagon of the most public game of the week, but this one looks pretty bleak for Kansas. KU has been exposed as a shell of itself last year, especially on defense. If Texas brings even it's B game on defense, Todd Reesing's head might actually fall off, as bad as he's been beaten up in recent weeks. Offensively, their line has shown very little ability to protect him, and Texas will be the toughest test they have faced this year. Defensively, they are simply overmatched, and the 'Horns will need to pile it on because style points are going to be part of the picture in the B12 South race.
9. @Florida -22 v South Carolina: Keep in mind that I hate Florida, and I've been wrong on them quite a bit in the past, but almost always in the misguided form of going against them. I've learned that this is almost always a futile proposition, because I always forget that all that Urban Meyer has to do is stare purposely at the field with a furrowed brow and every possible break that can manifest itself within the confines of a football game comes out in Florida's favor. They will score 38 points minimum in this game, regardless of how well they play, or how many yards they accumulate. On the other hand, South Carolina is not very good on offense, and Florida has been solid as well as (surprise!) opportunistic on defense. I will be stunned if they don't score at least 1 maybe two TD's on defense and ST. When I look into my crystal balls on this game, I see a lot of pained expressions and whipped visors from the ball coach. Blowout.
10. Louisiana Monroe+22 1/2@ Ole Miss: Here's another example of a much better team finding itself in a spot where the underdog they face won't get their best shot. Ole Miss s much improved, that much is true, but they still have flaws, among them a somewhat porous defense and a penchant for turning the ball over. Those two issues make it difficult to cover 3 TD+ spreads if you are not completely focused on the task at hand. Ole Miss has a trip to LSU on deck in a season in which they have to think they have a shot to win down there for the first time in a long while. Lou-Mon, meanwhile has not been bad, playing competitively in the Sun Belt, and showing competence on offense with Kinsmon Lancaster barking out the signals(19/5 ratio). They aren't a pushover, so if Ole Miss blows them out, it means they played extremely well. I thin the chances of that happening in this environment are not as good as the alternative.
Others: Iowa is an 18 1/2 point favorite at home against Purdue. Purdue has been pathetic offensively on the road in terms of scoring points, but have gotten some yards. Defensively, they have held Ohio St to 16 Penn St to 20 and Michigan St to 14(on offense). Iowa obviously isn't a juggernaut on offense. If Purdue can just slog through this game without handing Iowa points on defense, they should be able to cover that......I think Kentucky(-3 1/2) should be able to handle Vandy at home, as Vandy is going into their season ending losing spree to avoid a bowl game for something like the 30th year in a row. Since they made a QB change, Kentucky has improved measurably on offense, and their defense has been fine all year. They should be able to keep Vandy's challenged offense under wraps.....Wake is laying 3 1/2 at NC St. Currently, they are in the drivers seat in the ACC Coastline division or whatever the hell they call it, but they can easily lose this game if they aren't careful as NC State is playing their best ball in a couple years and Wake is prone to problems when they are favored. I'll be betting on NC St, as I think it's a 50/50 game and NC St gets the benefit of the FG helper....I really want to pull the trigger on Arizona as they travel to Oregon but only if the spread gets to 7. It started at 3 and has gone all the way to 6 1/2, but I don't trust them getting less than a TD. Oregon has figured out ways to keep themselves in games with opponents at home all year, so I'd like to get 7. Probably will be a no play though.....Does Minnesota have anything left? A modicum of pride? If so, despite the loss of Eric Decker, they would have a fighting chance to hang with Wisconsin since I think the line is a big overreaction to last week's results. I have a hunch they'll get a couple of turnovers and keep it close on Wisconsin. If they get their dobbers down, though, 13 1/2 won't be enough. That's it for this week. Have a nice weekend, and hopefully we'll get a better card next week. This one is underwhelming. Not that I won't be watching.
In light of Texas Tech's demolition of Okie St, I decided to look ahead to the remainder of the schedule and try to make sense of what might transpire over the coming weeks, as it relates to the BCS MNC game. I cannot express how much I love this shit, and I suppose that makes me some sort of dork, though my guess is that I might have earned that distinction long ago. Maybe it was when I got picked off first in Little League, despite the fact that league rules prohibit leading off. . Maybe it was the fact that in that instance, it was the pitcher who tagged me out, having sprinted over from the pitcher's mound to tag me while I was watching the train rumble by behind the backstop at DRLL's A field. Whatever. So I spent some time breaking down this crap....here's the way I see it:
1. Alabama and Florida go the rest of the season unbeaten, but Florida surprisingly catches some good fortune and beats Bama in the SEC title game with the help of 3 sub 10 yard TD drives. Urban Meyer decrees it, SO IT WILL BE SO!!.
2. Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma beats Okie St in Stillwater, resulting in a 3 way tie in the B12 South between Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahomo. Tiebreakers don't help until you get to #5, which means the BCS standings will determine who goes to the B12 title game. That will end up beng Texas, since the were the only one of the three to win on a neutral site in the triangle of games..the other two just held serve at home. So they go to Kansas City, where they BETTER beat Missouri, or else the whole thing goes up in flames. If they do, they'll get Florida in the MNC.
3. Southern Cal will get their secret wish of avoiding pounding the Big Ten runner up in the Rose Bowl because Oregon St runs the table and wins the Rose Bowl berth. It figures that this will happen the one year the actual Big Ten champ finally plays in the Rose Bowl(Penn St). As a result, USC gets Bama in a fantastic Sugar Bowl. Unfortunately, the Rose Bowl would get a rematch of Penn St's bloody beat down from week two over the Beavers. No big deal I guess.
4. Nobody gives a rat's ass about the ACC or the Big East, but they'll hold a shitfest in the Orange Bowl...I'll say it ends up being Wake v Cincinnati. God help us. The spread will be 3 one way or the other, and it'll probably push.
5. Texas Tech draws Utah in the Fiesta, as the Fiesta people decide they've had enough of Bob Stoops and his infernal choke jobs.
Of course, there will probably be some sort of silliness here in the next couple of weeks to throw a wrench into the proceedings. Hopefully not too much though, because I do NOT want to see Pete Carroll in the MNC game. F that dude.
On to the week, though I must admit...not much of a card. Especially at night. I've actually got social plans this Saturday(work related, of course), but this is the week to have them, since there ain't much to see.
1. Notre Dame -4 v Navy(Baltimore): As most of you may or may not know, I have developed somewhat of an unhealthy fascination with Navy, having actually found and subsequently visited some Navy message boards. I frequent this board weekly to find out whether or not Kaipo's season long hammy twinge has subsided, and whether or not he will play. If he does, generally Navy becomes a good bet, becuase, like most Navy QB's he knows what he is doing. More times than not, the wildly brutal backup, Jarrod Bryant plays in his place, and Navy goes from one of my favorite squads to back to an unbetable pile of dreck. Throughout the season, Navy has proven it's lack of worth.All of it's "impressive" wins are the result of an orgy of turnovers provided by the opposition(Wake and Air Force for example), and when teams haven't turned the ball over, i.e. Pitt a few weeks ago, they've found themselves in trouble. Defensively, they cannot hang with an offense like Notre Dame's, even if the Irish fails to show up, which they won't. Jarrod Bryant is indeed starting this week. Since Ken Niumatuololololo doesn't seem to be a complete basket case, I'll go ahead and assume he'll move to his somewhat capable 3rd string QB, Ricky Dobbs at some point early in the second quarter. It's possible by then that ND will be up 17-0 by that point, so it will probably be too late.
2. @Maryland +3 v North Carolina: It must be nice to have been outgained for the season by your opposition, yet still be favored on the road against a team going to a bowl. That's the case for the Tar Heels this week as they tee it up with the bipolar Maryland Terrapins. Maryland s among the most inconsistent teams in creation, as they have found ways to absolutely dominate Wake one week, then lose badly to MTSU the week after. They have been good at home, however, notching a 5-0 record in College Park this season. Offensively, they have the weapons necessary to win this game easily, and their defense can hold their own. I also like MD's offense, as the switch out of Steffy to Mr Sunshine has garnered some passing competency, and their run game remains good. I see an upset here, albeit a small one.
3. Nebraska -6 @Kansas St: Over the past several weeks, Nebraska has played much better than they did at the beginning of the season, when Va Tech's junior high offense ran them ragged and then Missouri toyed around with them the following week. Since then, however, they have looked good, starting with their trip to Lubbock in which they were about the only team to have figured out any way to control Tech's offense. Other than their obligatory thrashing at Oklahoma, they've pretty much dominated everyone else. They still have problems with good passing games, but their problems pale in comparison to K St's on the defensive side of the ball. It's been a well known fact that K St can't stop anyone on defense, and theie entore coaching staff is a collection of lame ducks as a result. At this point, K State is probably incapable of covering anything other than a 20+ spread against a disinterested superior opponent. This week, they have a smaller than a touchdown spread against a motivated superior opponent in an environment where the fans will probably be more interested in expressing their ire for the outgoing collection of dolts that sent their program back to laughingstock status than providing some sort of home field advantage to the inept juco mercenary thugs wearing their beloved colors.
4. @Nevada -15 v San Jose St: I'm still a little stung from the historically inept offensive performance turned in by SJSU last week. In case you didn't notice(and if you didn't good for you) they polluted the musings last week by allowing themselves to fall prey to the jungle cat-like savagery of.....Louisiana Tech? In that game, here's what they accomplished, against a defense that could have been previously characterized as "run of the mill", "uninteresting", "milquetoast" or "forgettable". At home, mind you, against a team that traveled across the entire country: Zero points. 148 total yards(62 on a fluke tipped pass, leaving 86 for the remainder of the 56 plays they ran). 6 first downs. Now they travel to Nevada to face a team that has quite a bit to play for in a possible bowl berth, and who is hitting their stride offensively. On defense, they are ranked second in the country against the run, so SJSU will have to get dynamic with the passing game to have any success, a laughable suggestion. Nevada is the #5 offense in the country, #1 in rushing. There is really no way SJSU can keep up with them in this one, unless all of Nevada's skill guys get absconded on the way to the stadium.
5. @Colorado St +2 v New Mexico: I really can't see why Colorado St is the underdog in this game. Perhaps people are still impressed by their 70-7 win over San Diego St several weeks ago. CSU was actually made the favorite when lines came out, but the betting public(maybe some admittedly sharp money) has flipped the numbers. Colorado St has been good at home this year, playing very close with both BYU and TCU and beating a very good offensive team in Houston early in the year. New Mexico has been eliminated from bowl contention while CSU, despite a 4-6 record, can get to bowl eligibility with wins in this game and next week at Wyoming. Very doable. There is also a mismatch between a capable CSU passing offense and a New Mexico D that has been giving up a lot of big plays in the passing game. For the year, New Mexico's QB's have a 3/13 ratio..the inability to pass effectively does not lead to success in sustaining drives on the road. If they can run it down CSU's throats for 4 quarters, God love 'em, but I'm guessing they'll have to do more than that.
6. @Oregon St -3 v California: As I mentioned before, I think Oregon St is going to run the table and win the BCS bid for the PAC 10. I might be the only person who thinks that though, and I believe that the Beavs have read all about it. I happen to think that Mike Riley is a really good coach, especially in an underdog role. They aren't dogs here per se, but their overall situation still can be classified as that. I comes Cal, who has the rep and overall feel of a "contending team" so most people might see this as a great opportunity for the Beavs to drop one. I don't really see it. Cal is coming off a poor performance on the road at SC(offensively, at least) and they are once again flip flopping QBs. They venture out on the road again this week against a team with everything to play for, who is well coached, is balanced on both sides of the ball and Cal only gets 3 points? Not enough in my opinion. I'm not actually sure who is going to play QB for Oregon St, but it doesn't really matter. What used to be a major handicap for OSU in the past has turned to a strength, as both Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao have shown they can move the ball through the air. They also have a very good running game and a solid defense. This is a legit squad.
7. @Michigan -3 v Northwestern:Obviously, Michigan doesn't really have anything to play for when it comes to their original goal setting at the beginning of the year, but they are making some progress, and Dick Rod is undoubtedly spinning their recent success and improved competitiveness as progress. They are on an upswing at this point, and played very well last week in their demolition of Minnesota. Now Northwestern limps into Ann Arbor coming off a shellacking from Ohio St, and they are banged up to boot. They pretty much have to win this one outright to cover this number, nd I think that's asking a lot of the Cats right now. If they get up off the mat and win at the Big House, kudos will be in store for Pat Fitzgerald. I have a feeling though that beating Michigan now is going to be a lot tougher than if they would have played them in October.
8. Texas -13 @Kansas: I hate to jump on the bandwagon of the most public game of the week, but this one looks pretty bleak for Kansas. KU has been exposed as a shell of itself last year, especially on defense. If Texas brings even it's B game on defense, Todd Reesing's head might actually fall off, as bad as he's been beaten up in recent weeks. Offensively, their line has shown very little ability to protect him, and Texas will be the toughest test they have faced this year. Defensively, they are simply overmatched, and the 'Horns will need to pile it on because style points are going to be part of the picture in the B12 South race.
9. @Florida -22 v South Carolina: Keep in mind that I hate Florida, and I've been wrong on them quite a bit in the past, but almost always in the misguided form of going against them. I've learned that this is almost always a futile proposition, because I always forget that all that Urban Meyer has to do is stare purposely at the field with a furrowed brow and every possible break that can manifest itself within the confines of a football game comes out in Florida's favor. They will score 38 points minimum in this game, regardless of how well they play, or how many yards they accumulate. On the other hand, South Carolina is not very good on offense, and Florida has been solid as well as (surprise!) opportunistic on defense. I will be stunned if they don't score at least 1 maybe two TD's on defense and ST. When I look into my crystal balls on this game, I see a lot of pained expressions and whipped visors from the ball coach. Blowout.
10. Louisiana Monroe+22 1/2@ Ole Miss: Here's another example of a much better team finding itself in a spot where the underdog they face won't get their best shot. Ole Miss s much improved, that much is true, but they still have flaws, among them a somewhat porous defense and a penchant for turning the ball over. Those two issues make it difficult to cover 3 TD+ spreads if you are not completely focused on the task at hand. Ole Miss has a trip to LSU on deck in a season in which they have to think they have a shot to win down there for the first time in a long while. Lou-Mon, meanwhile has not been bad, playing competitively in the Sun Belt, and showing competence on offense with Kinsmon Lancaster barking out the signals(19/5 ratio). They aren't a pushover, so if Ole Miss blows them out, it means they played extremely well. I thin the chances of that happening in this environment are not as good as the alternative.
Others: Iowa is an 18 1/2 point favorite at home against Purdue. Purdue has been pathetic offensively on the road in terms of scoring points, but have gotten some yards. Defensively, they have held Ohio St to 16 Penn St to 20 and Michigan St to 14(on offense). Iowa obviously isn't a juggernaut on offense. If Purdue can just slog through this game without handing Iowa points on defense, they should be able to cover that......I think Kentucky(-3 1/2) should be able to handle Vandy at home, as Vandy is going into their season ending losing spree to avoid a bowl game for something like the 30th year in a row. Since they made a QB change, Kentucky has improved measurably on offense, and their defense has been fine all year. They should be able to keep Vandy's challenged offense under wraps.....Wake is laying 3 1/2 at NC St. Currently, they are in the drivers seat in the ACC Coastline division or whatever the hell they call it, but they can easily lose this game if they aren't careful as NC State is playing their best ball in a couple years and Wake is prone to problems when they are favored. I'll be betting on NC St, as I think it's a 50/50 game and NC St gets the benefit of the FG helper....I really want to pull the trigger on Arizona as they travel to Oregon but only if the spread gets to 7. It started at 3 and has gone all the way to 6 1/2, but I don't trust them getting less than a TD. Oregon has figured out ways to keep themselves in games with opponents at home all year, so I'd like to get 7. Probably will be a no play though.....Does Minnesota have anything left? A modicum of pride? If so, despite the loss of Eric Decker, they would have a fighting chance to hang with Wisconsin since I think the line is a big overreaction to last week's results. I have a hunch they'll get a couple of turnovers and keep it close on Wisconsin. If they get their dobbers down, though, 13 1/2 won't be enough. That's it for this week. Have a nice weekend, and hopefully we'll get a better card next week. This one is underwhelming. Not that I won't be watching.
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Week 11 Musings
Nice start to the week, with Utah scraping past TCU in a game they almost certainly should have lost. TCU's inability to finish drives ultimately did them in, and Utah's penchant for doing whatever it takes to win bailed them out tonight. If that game was in Ft Worth, how many points would TCU have won by? 21? Probably. No matter. We roll on. Oh, I almost forgot!! Did anyone see the most awesomest thing that Utah did last night? Well, it was a really big game, so Utah came out in....get this.....ALL BLACK uniforms!!! And the fans wore all black too!!!!! They called it a BLACKOUT!!! It was so awesome! They looked all menacing, and the fans did too. I didn't even know that black was one of Utah's colors! I think it's GREAT when teams get creative like that!!! YAY UTAH!!
I will say that last week just turned out to be "one of those weeks". 3-8 when the dust settled. Ouch!! It was probably the worst full card week I've ever had since I started writing this weekly claptrap. To be honest though, this was somewhat of a departure from previous bad weeks, after which I would look in the mirror, shake my head disgustedly and tell the image to go F itself. This time, a lot of the games were sound plays...they just don't come in sometimes. Also when you play a lot of dogs, some of those teams will have weeks where they get stopped on downs within their opponents 20 on 5 consecutive drives and then give up the spread beater on a twice tipped pass with 2 minutes left while already down 14.(Like EMU did), or go a span of 3 quarters without forcing anything less than a TD on any drive(like Iowa St did.). It happens. By the way Okie St averaged just under 11 yards per play in that game. That's PER PLAY, not per completion, or even per passing attempt. PER PLAY. It's a wonder that they didn't score a hundred.
I also must report on my growing level of disdain for Pete Carroll. This week, he came out and admitted that he thinks the BCS "sucks". Well, I guess that's not too surprising there, jackass, since the process doesn't let you lose as a 20+ point favorite every year and still bestow a BCS opportunity on your lap. For the love of God, man, STOP LOSING TO SHIT TEAMS! Got it? Fantastic, now go talk some more agents into taking the fall for your program. I've also just about had it with Florida. Why is it that they are showered with 15 yard TD drives 4 times a week? I realize that Georgia got bum rushed, but consider: Florida had their first TD drive kept alive by a personal foul penalty, their second one aided by a horrifically bad spot which turned a 4th and 2 punting situation inexplicably into a first down. Their third one was on an 88 yard INT return. Once they get ahead, they bury you, but their ability to get ahead was aided by other issues this week. Bad calls here, good bounces there, and Urban Meyer looking on sternly, as if his resolve made it happen. I have to start looking for ways to avoid betting against these guys.
By the way, if you're a football fan in the state of Washington, wow. The Seahawks are surprisingly bad, and what do we make of these two Washington teams in the Pac-10. Last week, they lost by a combined 114-0. Washington did it's best WSU impression this week against USC. They were outgained 354-34, out forst downed 18-1, and the one was via a penalty, and it didn't come until their 6th possession. As for WAZZOU, is there even any point in talking about it anymore? You could suit suit up the Broadway cast of Cats, including the costume designers and choreographers, and they'd probably show an improvement in toughness. Arizona is the recipient of the wonderful feeling of covering a 40+ point spread by halftime this week.
Onto the week:
2.(FRIDAY NIGHT) @Fresno St +1 1/2 v Nevada: This spread did an about face yesterday, thanks to our friend Dr Bob, who obviously has looked at the rushing statistics for both teams and concludes that Fresno will be chasing QB Colin Kaepernick and company around like a bunch of beheaded chickens. Only a non-Troy Aikman FOX NFL color guy would disagree, since all logic and statistical data backs him up on that. As a result of this data, Fresno, who admittedly has played down to their competition since they realized they wouldn't be the non-BCS media darling this year is now an underdog, providing some material for Pat Hill, the ultimate us against them type coach. I'll also let you in on another secret...Nevada is last in college football in pass defense, allowing 328 yards per game. Fresno , quite uncharacteristically, is throwing the ball with very good efficiency last year. So now Nevada is expected to come into Fresno and win on the road against what really is a pretty good team. Well, what then is the worst case scenario for Fresno? How about if Nevada runs all over them, say to the tune of almost 8 ypc, and Fresno runs for single digit yardage?(possible since Nevada is 2nd in the nation in run D(!!!)). Well it happened last week in Nevada's game with Hawaii, as the Pack ran for 308 yards on 40 carries to 42 yards on 28 carries for Hawaii, and they lost anyway. That game was in Hawaii, so Nevada has had to return from a late night game on the island and get back on the road this week. Hawaii threw for an almost perfect efficiency rating on Nevada last week, so Fresno is likely to do the same. I just can't see them handling things on the road in this spot, despite their great running game. Everyone likes Nevada, and I do to, but I think they lose do to their inability to stop the forward pass.
3. Ohio St -11 @Northwestern: Not sure who is going to start for Northwestern this week, but it'll be either an less than 100% CJ Bacher, who hasn't been that great this year anyway, or backup Mike Kafka. The likelihodd is extremely low that Kafka will be able to repeat his Bobby Douglass impression against the Buckeyes, who have absolutely owned the 'Cats in recent year, most notably last year, a 58-7 trouncing in Columbus. Keep in mind that The Cats couldn't muster any offensive scores in the entire second half against a Swiss Cheese pass D like Minnesota, so you're likely to see some major struggles from them offensively here. Terrelle Pryor and Chris Wells are obviously bad matchups for the Cats D as well. I'd love to see the Cats be competitive in this one, but I am not counting on it.
4. Western Michigan +7 1/2(soon to be 8) v Illinois: Sandwich spot for Illinois,and I suppose the location on the schedule of this game would make that the case regardless of who was coming up on the schedule. Ohio St is on deck for a trip to Champiagn, so this trip to a neutral site game in Detroit seems like somewhat of a pain in the ass to make. Illinois, in my opinion, is extremely vulnerable to any kind of situational disadvantages, because they are not mature enough or well coached enough to avoid letdowns when they think they should win, especially away from home. In this game, they face a team that can exploit their weakness, which is pass defense. QB Tim Hiller is 6th in the country in passing yardage per game, completes almost 70% of his passes and sports a 28/5 ratio. If you watched Dustin Scherer effortlessly convert 3rd and 15's to various random college students streaking uncovered through the secondary a couple weeks back against Wisconsin, you know that a potent passing attack is a bad formula for the Illini. On the other side of the ball, if Illinois just tells Juice Williams to air it out and go downfield, WMU won't be able to stop it. Of course, that won't happen, because Illinois's chronic addition to slow developing "spready" short passes and option runs generally allows even casual observer type defenses to force 3rd and longs on them. As an Illinois fan, I'm afraid of a loss here. Maybe that's my bias talking, and all disclosures are communicated here as a result, but it looks like a bad matchup for the Illini to me.
5. Arkansas +13 @ South Carolina: This is just too many points. South Carolina is on it's second consecutive home game, this time early in the day, and they have Florida and Clemson as their two remaining games. This, to me, looks like a game in which Arkansas won't get South Carolina's best shot. Defensively, Arkansas is not very good, but they just played the best offense in D-1 (Tulsa) and held them to 23 points, so controlling South Carolina's pedestrian unit when they might not have their A game might not be much of a task. In order to cover this, South Carolina will probably have to score a TD on D or special teams, because it's likely that Arkansas, despite South Carolina's prowess on defense will figure out some ways to get points on the board, as they have improved all season. If Casey Dick turns gets benevolent and starts serving up picks as appetizers, all bets are off, but that's the case in any game. Too many points here for a so-so offense to be expected to cover.
6. NC State +3 1/2 @Duke: Everyone is of course all excited about Duke, especially after they surprised people a couple weeks ago and beat Vandy on the road, but now as a favorite, I think they might be in over their heads. NC State remains a good dog play since Russell Wilson will be under center, and they have shown an ability to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Defensively they haven't been good, but Duke is barely hitting the 300 mark in total yards, so they won't be facing a juggernaut. More of a fade of Duke as a favorite, and a play on NC State as a dog, kind of a best of times/worst of times scenario.
7. Wisconsin -9 1/2 @Indiana: Indiana has packed it in, they have no chance to go to a bowl and they just lost their second game to a MAC opponent at home this year. Bill Lynch, since that is the case, is probably going to bench team pouter Kellen Lewis per reports locally, which robs Indiana of much of their usefulness as a home dog. Wisconsin just gagged a game away last week...they will not be in the mood to hang around with the Hoosiers this week, and I doubt that Indiana will have much interest in sucking t up to stop the Badgers two headed rushing attack. A couple turnovers/quick scores early, and this one will be a laugher.
8. Kansas +1 1/2 @Nebraska: In the last 3 years vs the Huskers, Kansas has scored 76, lost in overtime as a 22 point dog, and blown out Nebraska 40-15 in a pick em game. Safe to say that Mark Mangino has done his job in getting the Jayhawks ready to play and having a pretty good plan, I guess. In this one, KU is a little bit better than Nebraska in all phases, and the Jayhawks are playing for more, as they still have an outside shot at the Big 12 North and stand at 6-3. Nebraska has really struggled to stop the run, and KU has seen that part of their offensive game improve steadily all year. I like KU here..
9. @San Jose St -7 v Louisiana Tech: LT scored a big upset last week by knocking off Fresno St, and did so using a concept previously foreign to them: points on offense. Now, coming off that great occurrence, they travel all the way across the country to face what is probably the best defense in their conference. On the road this year, they've averaged 6 points a game topping out with 14 at Hawaii among their 4 road games. Chances of them getting more than about 10 at SJSU are pretty remote, unless they do things they have not done in several years, not just this year. SJSU shouldn't have a problem finding points against LT's garden variety defense either.
10. @Colorado -9 1/2 v Iowa St: Any chance to fade Iowa St on the road and not have to lay double digits must be jumped on at this juncture. In their last 3 road games, (Okie St, covered earlier, Baylor and UNLV) the Cyclones have been outgained by 320, 178 and 148. Throw in a complete destruction by Nebraska at home in there and you have a recipe for blowouts. Now Colorado, by the way, would not be my first choice for a team to back at this point, hell they wouldn't be my 50th based on the complete pussification of their offense during the year, but they'll do. Defensively, they don't embarrass themselves(at least in non-Missouri games), and they can run it a bit. I also will still say that their offensive talent is much better than it's shown.
11. Arizona St -14 1/2 @ Washington: In most cases, I would never back ASU as a road favorite, but Washington is in such a horrific state right now, they must also be faded. Their defense cannot stop a soul, living or dead, as evidenced by their ranking of dead last in the FBS in total defense. Arizona St has not much to play for, but showed signs of life last week at Oregon St, and have been energized by the play of some young people, especially true freshman Ryan Bass at running back. In addition to their putrid offense, Washington has nothing to offer offensively either. Their game with Washington St coming up will be the retard fight of all time, with people from around the country tuning in to witness the awkward punches and uncoordinated lurching.
12. @Missouri -27 v Kansas St. Mizzou will absolutely name the score this week, as K St has completely given up, and still hasn't found a way to stop any offense, much less one like MIssouri's who is still taking their frustrations out on people to compensate for previous failures. As K state fans shudder at the thought of the specter of the mid 80's, they are now pining for Bill Snyder to come back to rescue a program that bad coaching and juco talent have poisoned. Take that combination(bad coaching and juco players), have them give up, and see what happens. Ron prince already resigned in anticipation. It's a big spread, but it's going to be a bloodbath, much like the Colorado game in Columbia earlier this year.
13 Stanford +14 @Orgon: Despite Oregon's penchant for stopping the run, I think Toby Gerhart, who has been able to run on everyone when healthy, will get his yards, and I think the Cardinal have played tough enough to show that they won't get blown out here. Oregon also, despite high expectations, has not really taken care of business in a dominant manner at home, with their games with UCLA and Boise in Eugene being examples. In the end, I just don't think Oregon's QB play allows them to run away and hide like the could before, and if Stanford can chew up th clock and make them impatient, the Cardinal might have a shot at knocking them off. Harbaugh seems to have a knack for doing that crap.
Others: I like ND(+3 1/2) to win at BC. If BC can get borderline dominated against Clemson, the Irish can go in there and win, especially if Chris Crane has more dropsy issues......Minnesota should handle Michigan(-7 1/2), especially since Threet probably won't play and Michigan can't stop a soul on defense. 530 yards to Purdue's 3rd string QB?? Come on, now. Minnesota's Achilles heel is pass defense, which won't come into play much against the Wolverines, as we all know......Baylor is catching 28 at Texas...they impressively hung with Missouri last week, and Texas is very banged up. They are unlikely to get much of an inspired effort from the Longhorns, so I think 28 is a very manageable number here....Wake is a home favorite against Virginia...all caveats in play on Wake as a home favorite of course. It's likely to be a FG fest so 3 1/2 points can be valuable...That's about it for the week.....hope everyone does well....
I will say that last week just turned out to be "one of those weeks". 3-8 when the dust settled. Ouch!! It was probably the worst full card week I've ever had since I started writing this weekly claptrap. To be honest though, this was somewhat of a departure from previous bad weeks, after which I would look in the mirror, shake my head disgustedly and tell the image to go F itself. This time, a lot of the games were sound plays...they just don't come in sometimes. Also when you play a lot of dogs, some of those teams will have weeks where they get stopped on downs within their opponents 20 on 5 consecutive drives and then give up the spread beater on a twice tipped pass with 2 minutes left while already down 14.(Like EMU did), or go a span of 3 quarters without forcing anything less than a TD on any drive(like Iowa St did.). It happens. By the way Okie St averaged just under 11 yards per play in that game. That's PER PLAY, not per completion, or even per passing attempt. PER PLAY. It's a wonder that they didn't score a hundred.
I also must report on my growing level of disdain for Pete Carroll. This week, he came out and admitted that he thinks the BCS "sucks". Well, I guess that's not too surprising there, jackass, since the process doesn't let you lose as a 20+ point favorite every year and still bestow a BCS opportunity on your lap. For the love of God, man, STOP LOSING TO SHIT TEAMS! Got it? Fantastic, now go talk some more agents into taking the fall for your program. I've also just about had it with Florida. Why is it that they are showered with 15 yard TD drives 4 times a week? I realize that Georgia got bum rushed, but consider: Florida had their first TD drive kept alive by a personal foul penalty, their second one aided by a horrifically bad spot which turned a 4th and 2 punting situation inexplicably into a first down. Their third one was on an 88 yard INT return. Once they get ahead, they bury you, but their ability to get ahead was aided by other issues this week. Bad calls here, good bounces there, and Urban Meyer looking on sternly, as if his resolve made it happen. I have to start looking for ways to avoid betting against these guys.
By the way, if you're a football fan in the state of Washington, wow. The Seahawks are surprisingly bad, and what do we make of these two Washington teams in the Pac-10. Last week, they lost by a combined 114-0. Washington did it's best WSU impression this week against USC. They were outgained 354-34, out forst downed 18-1, and the one was via a penalty, and it didn't come until their 6th possession. As for WAZZOU, is there even any point in talking about it anymore? You could suit suit up the Broadway cast of Cats, including the costume designers and choreographers, and they'd probably show an improvement in toughness. Arizona is the recipient of the wonderful feeling of covering a 40+ point spread by halftime this week.
Onto the week:
2.(FRIDAY NIGHT) @Fresno St +1 1/2 v Nevada: This spread did an about face yesterday, thanks to our friend Dr Bob, who obviously has looked at the rushing statistics for both teams and concludes that Fresno will be chasing QB Colin Kaepernick and company around like a bunch of beheaded chickens. Only a non-Troy Aikman FOX NFL color guy would disagree, since all logic and statistical data backs him up on that. As a result of this data, Fresno, who admittedly has played down to their competition since they realized they wouldn't be the non-BCS media darling this year is now an underdog, providing some material for Pat Hill, the ultimate us against them type coach. I'll also let you in on another secret...Nevada is last in college football in pass defense, allowing 328 yards per game. Fresno , quite uncharacteristically, is throwing the ball with very good efficiency last year. So now Nevada is expected to come into Fresno and win on the road against what really is a pretty good team. Well, what then is the worst case scenario for Fresno? How about if Nevada runs all over them, say to the tune of almost 8 ypc, and Fresno runs for single digit yardage?(possible since Nevada is 2nd in the nation in run D(!!!)). Well it happened last week in Nevada's game with Hawaii, as the Pack ran for 308 yards on 40 carries to 42 yards on 28 carries for Hawaii, and they lost anyway. That game was in Hawaii, so Nevada has had to return from a late night game on the island and get back on the road this week. Hawaii threw for an almost perfect efficiency rating on Nevada last week, so Fresno is likely to do the same. I just can't see them handling things on the road in this spot, despite their great running game. Everyone likes Nevada, and I do to, but I think they lose do to their inability to stop the forward pass.
3. Ohio St -11 @Northwestern: Not sure who is going to start for Northwestern this week, but it'll be either an less than 100% CJ Bacher, who hasn't been that great this year anyway, or backup Mike Kafka. The likelihodd is extremely low that Kafka will be able to repeat his Bobby Douglass impression against the Buckeyes, who have absolutely owned the 'Cats in recent year, most notably last year, a 58-7 trouncing in Columbus. Keep in mind that The Cats couldn't muster any offensive scores in the entire second half against a Swiss Cheese pass D like Minnesota, so you're likely to see some major struggles from them offensively here. Terrelle Pryor and Chris Wells are obviously bad matchups for the Cats D as well. I'd love to see the Cats be competitive in this one, but I am not counting on it.
4. Western Michigan +7 1/2(soon to be 8) v Illinois: Sandwich spot for Illinois,and I suppose the location on the schedule of this game would make that the case regardless of who was coming up on the schedule. Ohio St is on deck for a trip to Champiagn, so this trip to a neutral site game in Detroit seems like somewhat of a pain in the ass to make. Illinois, in my opinion, is extremely vulnerable to any kind of situational disadvantages, because they are not mature enough or well coached enough to avoid letdowns when they think they should win, especially away from home. In this game, they face a team that can exploit their weakness, which is pass defense. QB Tim Hiller is 6th in the country in passing yardage per game, completes almost 70% of his passes and sports a 28/5 ratio. If you watched Dustin Scherer effortlessly convert 3rd and 15's to various random college students streaking uncovered through the secondary a couple weeks back against Wisconsin, you know that a potent passing attack is a bad formula for the Illini. On the other side of the ball, if Illinois just tells Juice Williams to air it out and go downfield, WMU won't be able to stop it. Of course, that won't happen, because Illinois's chronic addition to slow developing "spready" short passes and option runs generally allows even casual observer type defenses to force 3rd and longs on them. As an Illinois fan, I'm afraid of a loss here. Maybe that's my bias talking, and all disclosures are communicated here as a result, but it looks like a bad matchup for the Illini to me.
5. Arkansas +13 @ South Carolina: This is just too many points. South Carolina is on it's second consecutive home game, this time early in the day, and they have Florida and Clemson as their two remaining games. This, to me, looks like a game in which Arkansas won't get South Carolina's best shot. Defensively, Arkansas is not very good, but they just played the best offense in D-1 (Tulsa) and held them to 23 points, so controlling South Carolina's pedestrian unit when they might not have their A game might not be much of a task. In order to cover this, South Carolina will probably have to score a TD on D or special teams, because it's likely that Arkansas, despite South Carolina's prowess on defense will figure out some ways to get points on the board, as they have improved all season. If Casey Dick turns gets benevolent and starts serving up picks as appetizers, all bets are off, but that's the case in any game. Too many points here for a so-so offense to be expected to cover.
6. NC State +3 1/2 @Duke: Everyone is of course all excited about Duke, especially after they surprised people a couple weeks ago and beat Vandy on the road, but now as a favorite, I think they might be in over their heads. NC State remains a good dog play since Russell Wilson will be under center, and they have shown an ability to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Defensively they haven't been good, but Duke is barely hitting the 300 mark in total yards, so they won't be facing a juggernaut. More of a fade of Duke as a favorite, and a play on NC State as a dog, kind of a best of times/worst of times scenario.
7. Wisconsin -9 1/2 @Indiana: Indiana has packed it in, they have no chance to go to a bowl and they just lost their second game to a MAC opponent at home this year. Bill Lynch, since that is the case, is probably going to bench team pouter Kellen Lewis per reports locally, which robs Indiana of much of their usefulness as a home dog. Wisconsin just gagged a game away last week...they will not be in the mood to hang around with the Hoosiers this week, and I doubt that Indiana will have much interest in sucking t up to stop the Badgers two headed rushing attack. A couple turnovers/quick scores early, and this one will be a laugher.
8. Kansas +1 1/2 @Nebraska: In the last 3 years vs the Huskers, Kansas has scored 76, lost in overtime as a 22 point dog, and blown out Nebraska 40-15 in a pick em game. Safe to say that Mark Mangino has done his job in getting the Jayhawks ready to play and having a pretty good plan, I guess. In this one, KU is a little bit better than Nebraska in all phases, and the Jayhawks are playing for more, as they still have an outside shot at the Big 12 North and stand at 6-3. Nebraska has really struggled to stop the run, and KU has seen that part of their offensive game improve steadily all year. I like KU here..
9. @San Jose St -7 v Louisiana Tech: LT scored a big upset last week by knocking off Fresno St, and did so using a concept previously foreign to them: points on offense. Now, coming off that great occurrence, they travel all the way across the country to face what is probably the best defense in their conference. On the road this year, they've averaged 6 points a game topping out with 14 at Hawaii among their 4 road games. Chances of them getting more than about 10 at SJSU are pretty remote, unless they do things they have not done in several years, not just this year. SJSU shouldn't have a problem finding points against LT's garden variety defense either.
10. @Colorado -9 1/2 v Iowa St: Any chance to fade Iowa St on the road and not have to lay double digits must be jumped on at this juncture. In their last 3 road games, (Okie St, covered earlier, Baylor and UNLV) the Cyclones have been outgained by 320, 178 and 148. Throw in a complete destruction by Nebraska at home in there and you have a recipe for blowouts. Now Colorado, by the way, would not be my first choice for a team to back at this point, hell they wouldn't be my 50th based on the complete pussification of their offense during the year, but they'll do. Defensively, they don't embarrass themselves(at least in non-Missouri games), and they can run it a bit. I also will still say that their offensive talent is much better than it's shown.
11. Arizona St -14 1/2 @ Washington: In most cases, I would never back ASU as a road favorite, but Washington is in such a horrific state right now, they must also be faded. Their defense cannot stop a soul, living or dead, as evidenced by their ranking of dead last in the FBS in total defense. Arizona St has not much to play for, but showed signs of life last week at Oregon St, and have been energized by the play of some young people, especially true freshman Ryan Bass at running back. In addition to their putrid offense, Washington has nothing to offer offensively either. Their game with Washington St coming up will be the retard fight of all time, with people from around the country tuning in to witness the awkward punches and uncoordinated lurching.
12. @Missouri -27 v Kansas St. Mizzou will absolutely name the score this week, as K St has completely given up, and still hasn't found a way to stop any offense, much less one like MIssouri's who is still taking their frustrations out on people to compensate for previous failures. As K state fans shudder at the thought of the specter of the mid 80's, they are now pining for Bill Snyder to come back to rescue a program that bad coaching and juco talent have poisoned. Take that combination(bad coaching and juco players), have them give up, and see what happens. Ron prince already resigned in anticipation. It's a big spread, but it's going to be a bloodbath, much like the Colorado game in Columbia earlier this year.
13 Stanford +14 @Orgon: Despite Oregon's penchant for stopping the run, I think Toby Gerhart, who has been able to run on everyone when healthy, will get his yards, and I think the Cardinal have played tough enough to show that they won't get blown out here. Oregon also, despite high expectations, has not really taken care of business in a dominant manner at home, with their games with UCLA and Boise in Eugene being examples. In the end, I just don't think Oregon's QB play allows them to run away and hide like the could before, and if Stanford can chew up th clock and make them impatient, the Cardinal might have a shot at knocking them off. Harbaugh seems to have a knack for doing that crap.
Others: I like ND(+3 1/2) to win at BC. If BC can get borderline dominated against Clemson, the Irish can go in there and win, especially if Chris Crane has more dropsy issues......Minnesota should handle Michigan(-7 1/2), especially since Threet probably won't play and Michigan can't stop a soul on defense. 530 yards to Purdue's 3rd string QB?? Come on, now. Minnesota's Achilles heel is pass defense, which won't come into play much against the Wolverines, as we all know......Baylor is catching 28 at Texas...they impressively hung with Missouri last week, and Texas is very banged up. They are unlikely to get much of an inspired effort from the Longhorns, so I think 28 is a very manageable number here....Wake is a home favorite against Virginia...all caveats in play on Wake as a home favorite of course. It's likely to be a FG fest so 3 1/2 points can be valuable...That's about it for the week.....hope everyone does well....
Week 11 Musings (Weeknight)
I'll have the bloody recap of last week in the primary musings, but for now, I'll go right into the Thursday night contest....
1. @Utah +2 v TCU: You might be able to get this at 2 1/2, but it appears that most will be looking at 2 in this one. At first glance, I looked at this line and immediately screeched "TRAP!!!!!" since we have the #8 ranked team in the country, undefeated, getting points from a team ranked a few spots lower than them and definitely a rung lower on the hype food chain. However, once you review what these teams have been doing over the past several weeks, you can see why the line is justified. TCU has been just devastating. Everyone knows about the schoolyard beatdown they administered to BYU a couple weeks back, and they have spent the weeks since then doing their best blood and gore acts on the likes of San Diego St and UNLV(last week, especially after QB Omar Clayton had to be carted off late in the first half). Utah, on the flip side, has looked mostly pedestrian, especially last week against New Mexico, a 13-10 snoozefest which left most of the players and fans searching for answers. While the Utes struggled on the scoreboard, they have been ok on the stat sheet, running the ball effectively, and generally exhibiting good balance on offense, while continuing their very strong play on D. Traditionally, the Utes are a handful at home to say the least, and it appears as though the weather will be in their favor Thursday night. TCU will have had to travel from Vegas to Dallas on a Saturday night, then pick up and go from 80 degree weather into a 30-35 degree night only a couple days later. They have an offense that has looked fine this year, but traditionally struggles offensively on the road(won only 13-7 in inclement weather at Colorado St this year). The atmosphere will be wild in Salt Lake, with a new dynamic in play since Utah will be the dogs, and they've taken some heat from the local press for not winning pretty enough. If TCU can walk into that environment and whoop Utah's collective ass, then I will doff my cap to them. I think however, that they are due for a subpar performance, and this might be the week that their penalty problems(last in the country in penalty yards and total penalties) might catch up with them. I think the Utes will get it done.
I really think that on paper, Maryland has a great chance to be the significantly better team at Virginia Tech, but you won't catch me banking on that schitzophrenic team putting it all together in Blacksburg catching less than a FG. VT has no clue who will be playing at QB, and they've been completely helpless in the passing game all year, but Maryland is entirely capable of giving up 28 points on ST and defensive scores, maybe even likely to do so, so I won't be on them. Had they been getting a traditional Thursday night in Blacksburg number, their relative superiority over VT would be too hard to pass up, but I don't trust a team that has already lost to MTSU and been completely cornholed by Virginia on the road this year. No play for me on that one..unless of course we see a big move on the line to 4 1/2 or something.
More to come later...although it's questionable if that's a good thing.
1. @Utah +2 v TCU: You might be able to get this at 2 1/2, but it appears that most will be looking at 2 in this one. At first glance, I looked at this line and immediately screeched "TRAP!!!!!" since we have the #8 ranked team in the country, undefeated, getting points from a team ranked a few spots lower than them and definitely a rung lower on the hype food chain. However, once you review what these teams have been doing over the past several weeks, you can see why the line is justified. TCU has been just devastating. Everyone knows about the schoolyard beatdown they administered to BYU a couple weeks back, and they have spent the weeks since then doing their best blood and gore acts on the likes of San Diego St and UNLV(last week, especially after QB Omar Clayton had to be carted off late in the first half). Utah, on the flip side, has looked mostly pedestrian, especially last week against New Mexico, a 13-10 snoozefest which left most of the players and fans searching for answers. While the Utes struggled on the scoreboard, they have been ok on the stat sheet, running the ball effectively, and generally exhibiting good balance on offense, while continuing their very strong play on D. Traditionally, the Utes are a handful at home to say the least, and it appears as though the weather will be in their favor Thursday night. TCU will have had to travel from Vegas to Dallas on a Saturday night, then pick up and go from 80 degree weather into a 30-35 degree night only a couple days later. They have an offense that has looked fine this year, but traditionally struggles offensively on the road(won only 13-7 in inclement weather at Colorado St this year). The atmosphere will be wild in Salt Lake, with a new dynamic in play since Utah will be the dogs, and they've taken some heat from the local press for not winning pretty enough. If TCU can walk into that environment and whoop Utah's collective ass, then I will doff my cap to them. I think however, that they are due for a subpar performance, and this might be the week that their penalty problems(last in the country in penalty yards and total penalties) might catch up with them. I think the Utes will get it done.
I really think that on paper, Maryland has a great chance to be the significantly better team at Virginia Tech, but you won't catch me banking on that schitzophrenic team putting it all together in Blacksburg catching less than a FG. VT has no clue who will be playing at QB, and they've been completely helpless in the passing game all year, but Maryland is entirely capable of giving up 28 points on ST and defensive scores, maybe even likely to do so, so I won't be on them. Had they been getting a traditional Thursday night in Blacksburg number, their relative superiority over VT would be too hard to pass up, but I don't trust a team that has already lost to MTSU and been completely cornholed by Virginia on the road this year. No play for me on that one..unless of course we see a big move on the line to 4 1/2 or something.
More to come later...although it's questionable if that's a good thing.
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