Week 13 Musings

Week 13. Where in the hell did the season go? This week marks the last full card of the season, since the Big Ten is done after this week, as are a good portion of the Big 12, the MWC and a couple other conferences. Much better card this week, as far as interesting games, but who am I to judge, since last week worked out just fine. 8-2 for the numbered musings...even the also rans were good, and that's saying something, considering that those tidbits have been about as accurate as a mid 90's Harry Caray Latin baseball player name pronunciation. The mark for the year improves to 74-55 (57.36%). If we can follow it up with another good week, we might have an outside shot at 60%. As I say that, phrases like "pipe dream", "fantasy world" and "unlikely scenario" come to mind rapidly, especially if any of you had the misfortune of opening the email I sent earlier this week on the Kent/NIU game. It's not going to be counted in the overall record because I made it clear that it wasn't a musing, and because it helps my case.

College Basketball has started and I'm already weary of it, probably because I saw Vitale on ESPN tonight. Actually, it's probably because in most cases, games are decided by who shoots significantly better than 3, which team flops better, and which team the refs feel like calling less fouls on. Illinois, who will probably be God-awful this year, just beat Vandy at Vandy, even while shooting under 25% from 2 point range. They hit 11 3's however, so they won, even though the last 3 minutes of the game mirrored how all Illinois games have gone in the late going the past couple of years: Illinois misses a shot, other team gets fouled. Illinois misses a shot, other team gets fouled. Shower rinse repeat until Bruce Weber is effeminately shaking the other coach's hand and racewalking back to the locker room a 7-9 point loser. Only this time, the other team missed a bunch of free throws and they ended up winning. Not that I'm not glad that the Illini and their talentless roster got a nice win. It's true, winning at Vandy is tough no matter when you play them, so good for Coach Bruce I guess.

Here in Indy, they wrote a story in the Indy Star about Joe Tiller since this week is his career windup in the Bucket game, which this year is even more pathetic than usual. It's not Washington/Washington St retard fight level stuff, but it'll be bad. Tiller pretty much got forced out, and maybe he overstayed his welcome, but Purdue should never forget where they were before Tiller. For those who forgot where they were, I'll suggest a word. Irrelevant...and in some seasons, "irrelevant" is being kind. Good luck Danny Hope.

On to this week:

1. @Ohio St -20 1/2 v Michigan: Not quite sure why the oddsmakers aren't making this one in the 28 point range. The last time Michigan found themselves in this type of spot, they were 24 1/2 point dogs at Penn St. In that game, they actually played very well for 3 quarters, and still failed to cover. Motivations in this game don't need to be explained, since I think this the aspects of this rivalry have been covered somewhat by the media in past years, but it's safe to say that Ohio St probably won't mind embarrassing Michigan if they get the chance, and as sure as the sun comes up in the East, they will get the chance. Remember that last year, with all of the talent Michigan had that now resides in the NFL(Henne, Hart, Manningham, Arrington, etc) Michigan rolled up a grand total of 91 yards in Ann Arbor against a defense that pretty much returns intact. Now we all know how I feel about Lloyd Carr, and his offense was woeful considering the talent he had, but they were better on offense last year, we can establish that, I think. Defensively, Michigan has done nothing but suck ass all year, so they'll be trading off between running around like morons trying to catch Terrelle Pryor or getting their collective skulls crushed by Ohio St's running game. This game will not be pretty.

2. @Northwestern +3 v Illinois: So Illinois is in a game they must win on the road to avoid embarrassment(a losing season coming off a Rose Bowl) with the prize being a bowl trip to Detroit to play a MAC team that will probably beat them. They are playing a scrappy 8-3 team that everyone is telling them they are faster and more talented than. HMMM, sounds like an important coaching job and a scenario where said team will have to suck it up, come up big, and avoid situational disadvantages. Boy, everything we've seen from the Illini this year screams success in this scenario, doesn't it? Gimme Northwestern, and I get a FG to boot!!

3. @Purdue -10 1/2 v Indiana: We're kind of Big Ten centric here I guess. At this point, any opportunity to fade Indiana, especially on the road henonly giving up 10 or so must be capitalized on. If that's the case, given recent results, you would assume that the team that's only laying 10 in this scenario must be a sad sack outfit, right? Well, you'd be right, but only for the most part. If you take a look at Purdue's season, they've been bad, but there are some good things about them. Defensively, they've been pretty good, holding Ohio St to 16 points and only 222 total yards, they held Michigan St to only 14 offensive points, and last week, they played Iowa to pretty much a standstill, all on the road. At home., they've even looked good offensively, rolling up 500+ yards on Michigan a couple weeks ago. On the flip side, Indiana truly defines bad. They've given up, their coach should be launched, and they don't have any talent that cares to even suit up. About the only aspect that they have going for them is that almost every team in the country would be pretty much bored with their existence, so they might be able to slink in and out of town with a polite 24-31 point beat down. They don't even have that this week, since Purdue would like nothing more than to do disgusting and demeaning things to them. Like in 2004 when they rolled up 763 yards and 63 points on IU after a couple of especially frustrating losses. Considering that IU has given up an average of 521 yards in their last 3 games, those numbers possible this week.

4. NC State +11 @North Carolina: Here's another case of a team with a struggling offense expected to cover a double digit number against a pretty good opponent. Obviously, NC State has been good to us this year, and once again they are the recipient of a generous spread. Sometimes the books get excited about teams that used to stink but now have shown levels of competence, and they over inflate the lines because bettors are eager to back those teams in an effort to look smarter than everyone else. UNC has had a good year from the get go this year, so I don't know if that's the case with them anymore, but if you really look at what these teams have been doing in recent weeks, you'll notice that they are very evenly matched. UNC is only averaging 350 yards per game, not many first downs either(15 per). They have been very reliant on turnovers, but as long as Russell Wilson is playing QB for NC St, the Pack is not turnover prone. (12/1 TD/INT ratio!!!) Frankly I'll take any team with 11 1/2 points that has a QB with that type of ratio. There's also uncertainty at QB for UNC since Tyler Yates is about healthy now, so both guys might be looking over their shoulder. Throw in the fact that, in this game, 4 out of the last 5 years, the dog has won outright, 3 times as a double digit dog. The dog is definitely the value side here.

5. @Vanderbilt -3 v Tennessee: This spread indicates that on a neutral field these two teams are equal, with a slight edge perhaps to Tennessee. Anyone that has spent any time observing either of these teams would laugh uproariously at that proposition. Vandy has beaten South Carolina, won at Ole Miss, hung tough at Georgia and bludgeoned Kentucky in Lexington last week. Frankly, by looking at their numbers, you'd be hard pressed to pinpoint how they;ve done that, but, they've done it, mostly through solid coaching and disciplined approaches. Now that they have become bowl eligible, they can relax and concentrate on the task at hand, which is to shove it down UT's throats. At this point, Tennessee is completely uninterested, and although they might show some life at kickoff, as soon as they have a couple bad things happen to them, they'll crawl back into whatever hole they emerged from that morning. Vandy has run it on people this year, and although they might have some difficulty moving it consistently on the Vols relatively sturdy defense, they'll find some cracks once the mood changes.

6. Army +19 1/2 @ Rutgers: This line is inflated based on some crazy results in recent Rutgers games. Last week is a good example, as Rutgers forced 6 turnovers which snowballed into a 49-16 win over South Florida, who quickly is fading into oblivion. They also thrashed Pittsburgh, putting up 54, but that was again a bit misleading as they completed 14 passes and scored TDs on 6 of them. Flukish I would say. In that game they were outgained and gave up 150 yards and 4 TDs on the ground to Le Sean McCoy. Now they return home to a hero's welcome after all this plundering and tee it up with Army, who has quietly put together a nice season by Army standards. They stand at 3-7, and have not been blown out in any game since their farcical opener against Temple in which they lost 42-7 despite outgaining Temple by more than 100 yards. Their success has been their running game, and a good example of their progress was in their game against Air Force 3 weeks ago where they beat the Flyboys at their own game, outgaining them 250-177 yet falling short. It indicates their competence on defense. They have outgained their last 5 opponents, the aforementioned Air Force as well as some other decent squads mixed in there. They will be able to move the ball on Rutgers. As long as Rutgers doesn't pull another horseshoe out of their rectum on the turnover front, Army will give them a game.

7. @Maryland +1 v Florida St: I am skeptical about Florida St's ability to win in this game because it looks entirely likely that they will have a helluva time trying to stop Maryland's ground game. In road games this year, including a couple that they've won against teams that don't run it as well as Maryland does, they've given up 6.1 yards per carry. Maryland has a nice two headed monster running attack going right now in DaRel Scott and Davin Meggett(Dave Meggett's kid), and their QB Napolean Dynamite/Sunshine doesn't really make many mistakes. Offensively, FSU's offensive line is very poor, as they have had difficulty getting any consistent running game going. Antone Smith and Jermaine Thomas have had some success breaking off big runs at a time, but it's either feast or famine for them. Looking at these two teams on paper, they have the same record, and unit by unit, I think Maryland is a little bit better than Florida St. Since I'm getting a point and my the better team, in my opinion, is at home, I guess there's not really a question here, now is there?

8. @Virginia +3 (Buy from 2 1/2)V Clemson: Historically, Al Groh has been a fantastic home dog, and when you are in that spot against an underachieving type team, it makes it that more attractive. Clemson, since the Tommy Bowden ouster, has been jeckyl and hyde. This line is probably an effect of Clemson's easy win over Duke last week, but you can throw that out because Duke QB Thad Lewis got hurt early, and everything unraveled for the Devils. Clemson gives up yards on the ground, and Cedric Peerman is healthy this week, so that should work in Virginia's favor. QB Marc Verica has cooled off in recent weeks, but he is capable, giving Virginia a balanced attack. At times on the road, Clemson has looked anemic, which there really is no excuse for given their talent, but we've been over that....it's because they're a bunch of pussies. Keep in mind that only 3 weeks ago this Virginia team went into Atlanta and beat Georgia Tech pretty soundly, so they have the chops to have their way with Clemson. Both are still bowl-alive, so the motivation is there. Going with dogs in the ACC has been pretty money, so I'll take the home dog in this case.

9. @Penn St -14 v Michigan St: First of all, this line sits at 15 right now, having come down from 15 1/2. That jackoff Dr Bob sent it up to 15 1/5 yesterday afternoon from 14, and now it's starting to come down. Based on the size of the line, I would not lay more than 14, so my goal would be to have it come to 14 1/2 and then buy it to 14. In the end, I'll be betting it regardless, but the possibility of a backdoor is too good to recommend it at more than 14. I think Vegas is begging people to take Michigan St in this game, and I can see why. Michigan St is 9-2, certainly a great record.( I won't get into how they should have at least 2 more losses) They have ridden Javon Ringer like a rented mule all year, at times unnecessarily in my opinion. He's generated a lot of hype, but he's been workmanlike at best. Consider: against Purdue, he ran for 3.8 ypc. V Wisconsin, 2.6. Against Northwestern 3.5. Do you think he'll be able to do any better than that at Penn St? I don't either. Then they're stuck relying on Brian Hoyer and his 48% completion ratio. Lots of 3 and outs are in store for the Spartans here.To be honest, the dominant running back in this game will be Evan Royster from Penn St. Penn St is averaging 6.3 yards per carry at home, and more than 5 per for the year. Michigan St has given up big rushing numbers to just about every RB they've faced this year, giving up 5.5 per clip...that's brutal. Tyrell Sutton gashed them for 6.3 ypc, the Wisconsin RBs were 6.38(in E Lansing)Shonn Grene ran for 5+. Even Indiana ran for 6.8 yards per carry..not a good sign. We haven't seen a Penn St ambush for a few weeks, but it's coming this week. 63% of the public are on MSU, very rare for a sizable dog....it all adds up to a blowout. To be safe, though, get the spread to 14.

10 Iowa St +10 @ Kansas St: The fact that K State and their punching bag defense is giving up 10 to anyone is a joke. Iowa St is a walking punchline themselves, but come on. To say that K State has possibly given up is like saying Mike LaVette isn't quite sure about this Obama fellow. Their fan base is already wearing bags over their heads. Iowa St, in spite of all their problems, at least thinks it has a decent coach and has some underclassmen who have had some success o offense. They've run it ok, and Austen Arnaud has thrown it capably. I think at the end of the day you have two sad sack teams, but one has given up while the other one hasn't and the one that hasn't is getting 10 points. As for the home field, fans with bags on their heads generally don't cause much of a home field advantage in my opinion.

Others.....The LSU/Ole Miss line has fallen all the way to 3 1/2..I liked it from an Ole Miss standpoint when it opened at 7, but there's no value now. Still, though, I really for some reason think Ole Miss is going to beat them outright, so maybe a FG helper is of value. I kind of hope not, though because I'd like to see LSU in the Cotton Bowl against one of the Big 12 heavies.......I might break with tradition and actually bet on Wake laying a slight number (2)at home to BC this week. The spot is really bad for BC. They're coming off two very emotional games(ND and at FSU) in which they got a ton of bog play turnovers, including an 80 yard INT return last week and 2 big ones against ND the week prior. That's not likely to happen against Riley Skinner and Wake. I think Wake takes care of them this week.....Tulane is so banged up that they are a shell of themselves from earlier in the year. Now they have to travel to Tulsa to deal with a Golden Hurricane team that just got the Holy Bejeezus beaten out of them against Houston last week(70-30!!!). They will be mad, and they will be successful. Todd Graham, the Tulsa coach isn't afraid to run it up. 28 probably won't be close to enough.....I also, believe it or not, think Wyoming can beat Colorado St this week. Even though CSU is still playing for a bowl, they have all kinds of trouble stopping the run, and that's something that Wyoming can do...run the ball. They are getting 2 at home in what will probably be Joe Glenn's swan song. Wyoming also plays capable D at home. I can see them winning this one, even though CSU has been a dear friend of the musings this year. That's it for this week..hopefully we don't see a regression to the mean this week.