Week 14 Musings

Last week was positive anyway, 6-4 to get the total up to 80-59, a 57.55% clip. Above the do-over goal of 57%. Let's see if we can stay there. Having looked back at the results for the year, I'd have to be pretty happy with the percentage, but a little disappointed in the fact that there have been 3 losing weeks for the year, compared to only 1 last year. Obviously, there have been more successful weeks this year, i.e., weeks of 11-3, 8-2, etc, while last year it was pretty much a collection of coin flips.

A big. bony extended middle finger goes out to Texas Tech who's performance last weekend served as a walking, steaming, real life definition of "shitting the bed". If someone ever asks you what "shitting the bed" means, just pop this tape into the Betamax. In addition of depriving us any meaningful football to watch Saturday night(unless you get Versus, in which case you saw the Oregon St/Arizona game), they have singlehandedly inspired more insipid "Why can't we have a playoff" hand wringing.

I thought I had this Big 12 South thing figured out. It would have gone something like this, going into Saturday night's game in Norman, Texas Tech is in the driver's seat because they control their own destiny. They win, they're in the B12 title game. As for the other two, it seemed to me that Oklahoma was pretty much screwed. In a three way tie, you would have Oklahoma losing to Texas on a neutral field, rather soundly. Then you have Texas losing to Texas Tech, but on the last play of the game, on the road, when their goat of a safety dropped a feathery soft tipped ball on the next to last play. So in my estimation, as long as Tech lost to Oklahoma on something more than the last play of the game, Texas's win on a neutral field trumps everything else, and they get the call.

Now, Texas Tech had their asses kicked so thoroughly, so embarrassingly, that no serious case can be made for them to be in the title game at all. Also, it has thrown a wrench into the whole pecking order of who's win over the other was the most impressive. In the end, I think the whole mess really helps USC. I think the chances are pretty slim that Oklahoma loses in the Bedlam game next week, so now let's consider: I originally would have said that a win for Texas over Oklahoma is the most impressive because it occurred on a neutral field, and the other two wins(OU's over TT and TT over Texas) happened on those team's home fields. But Oklahoma's win was so remarkable that more credence has to be given to it, as much as I don't want to admit it. Here's Bob Stoops's comment after the game:
“The logic of whether to put us in front of Texas? If you can’t do that because they beat us, then you’ve got to keep Texas Tech in front of Texas. What’s logical for one is logical for the other.”

That pissed me off when I read it, because you aren't comparing apples to apples. All this they beat us, we beat them shit only is comparable if the venue was consistent for all of them. But I'd only be right about that if the results were even somewhat consistent. Texas Tech's complete obliteration has thrown a wrench into everything, because although Texas was the only team that could say that they won on something other than their home field, now Oklahoma is the only team that can say they destroyed one of the other two. So now who goes? If Oklahoma wins convincingly at Oklahoma St, I'm betting it's them. If they lose though, Texas Tech goes even though Texas would probably be higher in the BCS standings. Tech , though, proved they can't even compete in a non-friendly environment against an elite squad. So if they win, then what? You can't conceivably allow Texas Tech play Florida after that performance can you? You would need a conference champ, right? If so, USC would be in line, but only if Oregon St loses to Oregon! You also, in my opinion, can't take Texas, they didn't even "win"their division. You'd be down to Penn St, or maybe even Utah! If Tech wins, I think they are out. If they would have competed with Oklahoma, then I would say yes, but not the way they laid an egg last week. By the way, why did the B12 write the BCS standings as the #5 tiebreaker? Couldn't they have come up with something else? How about total point differential between the 3 teams? Non-conference winning percentages for opponents. It seems as though they could have used something better, especially since the coaches poll ballots remain secret until the last week.

Slightly limited card, but let's get rolling. I don't have these in chronological order..check the dates, some might be on Friday, some on Saturday

1. Florida -16 1/2 @ Florida St: I really don't give a rat's ass how high this spread gets, I'm going to be on Florida, because the genius that is Urban Meyer is just too devastating a force for any team in the country to endure. His ability to conjure up ridiculously lame play by all who dare forsake him by playing his team is getting legendary. No doubt it will happen again this week against Florida St. They'll try a fumblerooski from their own one yard line but forget to have the guy pick the ball up off the ground, or someone will field a punt inside their own 5 and the guy will trip and heave the ball into the endzone. This is not to mention the obligatory 95 yard INT return, several questionable spots, a timely roughing the passer penalty or 3...you get the drift. Never mind that this is a hideous matchup for Florida St, since the Seminoles cannot effectively pass the ball against any semblance of a pass rush thanks to their WAC level offensive line. Florida's defense, in addition to being able to possibly outscore FSU by themselves, is also showing signs of being among the best in the country in all phases. The Noles are not a bad team, but they don't match up well at all here. This might be another case of a team having to chase the spread from behind beginning in the second quarter.

2. @Texas Tech -21(buy it down if you have to) v Baylor: This is an overreaction to last week. Baylor is improved, it's true, but they still aren't in any semblance of a position in which they can hope to stop Texas Tech on the road. Obviously, Tech will be looking for redemption from that debacle last week in an effort to get everyone to remember what they were prior to that game:An offensive juggernaut that gets stopped maybe once or twice a year. Baylor, despite all of it's improvement, is still ranked 95th in the country on defense, 99th against the pass. They, like just about everyone else, will almost certainly give up 49-56 points in this one. If that's the case, they need to pile up 30+ to cover. It can happen, yes, but this spread, if floated out a couple weeks ago, would almost certainly be in the 28 range. The only that's changed from a couple weeks ago is that we know now that Tech can struggle in the night time spotlight at Oklahoma. That has no bearing on whether or not Baylor can stop them.

3. Oklahoma -7(buy it down if necessary) @ Oklahoma St: I know, I feel like a complete square taking all these public favorites. However, I can't see how Oklahoma St keeps this one close. People will tell you that OU is a different team on the road, and historically that is true, but it isn't this year. They have pretty much beat the hell out of everyone they have played save for one half in Dallas against Texas. They will continue to be motivated on the quest to the BCS MNC game. I do not think that Okie St has a chance to stop that offense, and although OSu's own offense has been good, I don't think they have enough balance to be able to avoid open possessions, which will have to be kept at a minimum in order to compete here. I think Oki St is a nice squad capable of taking apart the dregs of the Big 12, but this is a different animal. Hell, even if they play fantastically, they could still fail to cover this. It's too important of a game for OU...I think the march continues for them.

4. @Eastern Michigan +10 v Central Michigan: Another rivalry game, and I am hesitant to go on this wagon again because I have been forsaken by EMU a couple times this year, but they're due, right? This is another of those directional Michigan games that in the past has always trended as you would not expect. For example, in this series, 3 of the last 4 have gone to overtime, and the one that didn't, last year, EMU won at CMU outright as a 14 point dog. Don't forget that CMU won the league last year. Now, CMU travels to EMU as a 10 point favorite. Despite their prowess, they have won exactly zero MAC games by more than 10 points this year. On the road, they haven't won a game by more than 3, and that includes games with MAC weaklings Ohio and Toledo. Their weakness remains stopping the pass(#105 in passer rating against), and EMU can throw it around a bit(30th in passing yards), as evidenced by QB Andy Schmitt's 50 completions last week against a previously stingy Temple defense. The Chips are coming off a tough disappointing loss at home to Ball St to end any MAC title hopes for them, and EMU's popular coach just got fired, so motivation is probably going to be on the side of the Hurons(I won't call them the Eagles). I can really see an outright here for EMU. Despite their 2-9 record, they have outgained their opponents on the year.

5. UCLA +10 1/2 @ Arizona St: If Arizona St has proven anything this year, it's that they are a big fat steaming pile of disappointment and despair. Both of these teams come in at 4-6, so I fail to see why ASU should be favored. If I'm an ASU fan, I am so goddamn sick of Rudy Carpenter and this collection of underachievers that I'm telling them to keep a close eye on the proximity of the door to their collective ass on their way out of Tempe. Since a decent opening to the season, ASU has lost 6 of their last 8, with the only wins coming against the two teams that any team in the country could handle, Washington and Washington St. Other than that, they've just shown up, kicked off and pretty much fell into the fetal position until the game was in hand and the other team got comfortable, save for a mildly inspired performance against an Oregon St team that was clearly looking past them. So how are they a 10 point favorite? I have no clue. At least UCLA has been showing up in games, competing at Oregon and at Cal. I think they are in a better spot to compete in this game too. I just can't see ASU as a dd favorite against any real team at this point.

6. UTEP + 5 1/2 @ East Carolina: This is a classic case of two teams matching up with vastly different styles. At this point, ECU is a mere shadow of itself from earlier this year due to a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball. UTEp, on the other hand has been coming on, as evidenced most recently by a very close shave loss at Houston last week as a 17 point dog. Now they travel across country to ECU. Offensively, UTEP is very good, especially with QB Trevor Vittatoe under center, as he has thrown for a 31/6 ratio this year. Their defense at times has been atrocious, but has stepped up in recent weeks with some pretty decent performances. ECU, while stingy on defense has been putrid lately on offense, falling short of 300 yards of total offense in back to back weeks against UAB(111th in the country and total defense) and Southern Miss, hardly defensive heavyweights. Perhaps they will find themselves against UTEP accommodating D, but I think it's more likely that their own defense will give up points to the UTEP attack. This matchup kind of reminds me of their game with Houston earlier this year, where the Cougar offense scored early and often and ran away and hid in a blowout. I don't think UTEP will blow them out, but I can see a similar pace of play in this game, so I'll take the points.

7. Kentucky + 4 1/2 @ Tennessee: These two teams will have so much trouble scoring on each other that 4 1/2 points becomes very valuable. To be honest, I don't even know how much Tennessee even tries to score on offense anymore, as they only threw the ball 8 times last week once they got up via freak turnovers against Vandy. I'm not even sure who was playing QB last week, as you cant really tell by looking at the box score, so I'm not going to even try to guess. Kentucky's defense is pretty good, so they'll be able to hold down that pathetic attack. Kentucky will be challenged as well by UT's defense, but in my opinion, this is a toss up game that could go either way. I'd say that Kentucky is a slightly better squad, so I think taking these points seems pretty prudent. UK needs this one to sew up a bowl as well.

8 @Duke +8 1/2 v North Carolina: UNC continues to get outgained every week, and Duke, believe it or not, when healthy, has been able to outgain their opponents at home. They've struggled the past couple of weeks because starting QB Thad Lewis has been out, but he's back this week. Duke's defense has held opponents to a respectable 350 per game at home, and UNC, as we have seen has been struggling to find consistency on offense. I think we might also see a distinct motivational advantage for Duke here. I wouldn't be surprised if Duke wins this one outright.

9. Notre Dame +32 1/2 @USC: I realize that ND has found themselves in a world of hurt here, but this line is a joke. Even if USC covers this, the value side is Notre Dame. ND is a 6-5 team, they have outgained their last 8 opponents, despite the scoreboard results, and defensively they are giving up only 320 yards per game. Obviously, they are stepping up in class against USC here, but USC hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard this year. Look at the previous spreads ND has been faced with...and keep in mind that some of their previous teams under Willingham were helpless. The highest spread USC had to cover was 24. I can tell you that despite their current situation, ND is better now than they were in those years, and USC isn't as explosive either. This is an absolute overreaction to last week's result. Maybe ND doesn't even show up and USC rolls them, but even with a 41-10 type game, ND covers.

10 Auburn +14 1/2 @ Alabama: As bad as Auburn has been this year, they are still averaging only 300 yards against on defense. As we know, Alabama as complete and efficient as they are, are not an offensive juggernaut, as their inability to shake teams like Kentucky would suggest. In this game, I will give some respect to my arch enemy Tommy Tuberville. Say what you will about him...he's a dickface, he smells bad, he'd run over his grandma for a chance at a slightly more convenient parking spot, whatever. He can beat Alabama, as he's done it 6 times in a row. IN addition, the Auburn players will be giving Bama their best shot and Bama might be looking ahead to Florida in their game of the decade next week. I think the possiblity definitely exists that Bama is in for a dogfight, especially if JP Wilson isn't careful and Auburn successfully stops Bama's run game. I would like nothing more than to see Bama run it up on poor Tommy, but I foresee Auburn's best effort of the year this week.

11. South Carolina +1 @ Clemson: Clemson's offense has been pathetic lately, most recently suggested in last week's taffy pull at Virginia, where they ran for a grand total of 20 yards. This week they move up in class against a good defense in South Carolina. I don't see them doing much of anything against that defense, and although I am losing interest in figuring in Steve Spurrier as any kind of coaching advantage these days, he has to have a tactical advantage over Dabo Swinney doesn't he? South Carolina has a healthy hatred for Clemson, so they'll be motivated, and they match up well on the lines in this game as long as they avoid silly turnovers. Clemson is playing for a bowl, as well as respectability so it's a big game for them, but "big games" usually doesn't bode well for teams with feminine tendencies.


Others: I like Virginia a bit getting 8 1/2 at Va Tech because of Tech's weak offense. However, their propensity to turn it over, especially given the venue, scares me off on jumping in with two feet......Georgia Tech is in the same boat. I'd really like to have DD in this game, but 8 1/2 will have to do. Georgia's defense has not proven able to handle assignments, which they will have to do to win this one. They also have shown limited ability to blow people out, and Ga Tech's defense is certainly capable of keeping them in this game.....Nevada(-5) is a very bad matchup for Louisiana Tech, since they stop the run and La Tech is completely unable to throw the ball. Also, Nevada's offense is capable of easily outscoring them. I just don't like it as much because La Tech has won some nice games at home, ad it's very tough for teams to come from West to East and play well for some reason. I actually don't know which way I'll go there, not sure why I'm listing it....interesting aspects of the game I guess, as if anyone cares.....I'll be on NC State +1 at home against Miami because I really like the way they're playing, especially the QB. If I was getting a FG it would be a musing, but this team is still learning how to win, so a collapse and late FG win for Miami is a distinct possibility. New Mexico St is a total Jeckyl and Hyde team due to their schizophrenic coach Hal Mumme, but they are getting 6 points at Utah St. NMSU has a very good offense when motivated, and they have already won at Nevada and took Fresno to the wire on the road, so they can certainly hang within 6 of Utah St......Maryland plays like a bunch of pansies on the road, so going to the cold to play BC seems like a gimme, but the spread will probably reach 7 and BC is playing with a backup QB. They'll probably cover anyway, but I can't wholeheartedly recommend it. That's about it for the week.....Hope everyone has a nice Turkey Day.