Week 12 Musings

Back on track last week...somewhat, as the numbered musings went 7-5-1. That gets the number back to about 55.5% for the year(66-53), short of the do-over goal of 57%, but still strong enough to make a profit, as long as you're not laying -150. I think I mentioned that I have been absolutely terrified of a possible Minnesota appearance in one of the New Year's Day bowl games, but no worries. They have cooperated the last two weeks and coughed up a couple hair balls in back to back home losses to Northwestern without their skill people and that shell of a former competent program, Dick Rod's Wolverines. A throttling at the hands of Michigan, no less. Now they stare down an unpleasant task of facing a couple more legit squads in their windups in Wisconsin this week and at home against Iowa next week. So instead of embarrassing the Big Ten further(if that's possible these days) by getting shellacked in a Florida Jan 1 game, the Goofers will only inflict whatever embarrassment is garnered these days by yet another loss to the MAC, since they'll probably be headed to the Motor City bowl to play Central Michigan or Ball St. Fantastic.

In light of Texas Tech's demolition of Okie St, I decided to look ahead to the remainder of the schedule and try to make sense of what might transpire over the coming weeks, as it relates to the BCS MNC game. I cannot express how much I love this shit, and I suppose that makes me some sort of dork, though my guess is that I might have earned that distinction long ago. Maybe it was when I got picked off first in Little League, despite the fact that league rules prohibit leading off. . Maybe it was the fact that in that instance, it was the pitcher who tagged me out, having sprinted over from the pitcher's mound to tag me while I was watching the train rumble by behind the backstop at DRLL's A field. Whatever. So I spent some time breaking down this crap....here's the way I see it:

1. Alabama and Florida go the rest of the season unbeaten, but Florida surprisingly catches some good fortune and beats Bama in the SEC title game with the help of 3 sub 10 yard TD drives. Urban Meyer decrees it, SO IT WILL BE SO!!.

2. Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma and Oklahoma beats Okie St in Stillwater, resulting in a 3 way tie in the B12 South between Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahomo. Tiebreakers don't help until you get to #5, which means the BCS standings will determine who goes to the B12 title game. That will end up beng Texas, since the were the only one of the three to win on a neutral site in the triangle of games..the other two just held serve at home. So they go to Kansas City, where they BETTER beat Missouri, or else the whole thing goes up in flames. If they do, they'll get Florida in the MNC.

3. Southern Cal will get their secret wish of avoiding pounding the Big Ten runner up in the Rose Bowl because Oregon St runs the table and wins the Rose Bowl berth. It figures that this will happen the one year the actual Big Ten champ finally plays in the Rose Bowl(Penn St). As a result, USC gets Bama in a fantastic Sugar Bowl. Unfortunately, the Rose Bowl would get a rematch of Penn St's bloody beat down from week two over the Beavers. No big deal I guess.

4. Nobody gives a rat's ass about the ACC or the Big East, but they'll hold a shitfest in the Orange Bowl...I'll say it ends up being Wake v Cincinnati. God help us. The spread will be 3 one way or the other, and it'll probably push.

5. Texas Tech draws Utah in the Fiesta, as the Fiesta people decide they've had enough of Bob Stoops and his infernal choke jobs.

Of course, there will probably be some sort of silliness here in the next couple of weeks to throw a wrench into the proceedings. Hopefully not too much though, because I do NOT want to see Pete Carroll in the MNC game. F that dude.

On to the week, though I must admit...not much of a card. Especially at night. I've actually got social plans this Saturday(work related, of course), but this is the week to have them, since there ain't much to see.

1. Notre Dame -4 v Navy(Baltimore): As most of you may or may not know, I have developed somewhat of an unhealthy fascination with Navy, having actually found and subsequently visited some Navy message boards. I frequent this board weekly to find out whether or not Kaipo's season long hammy twinge has subsided, and whether or not he will play. If he does, generally Navy becomes a good bet, becuase, like most Navy QB's he knows what he is doing. More times than not, the wildly brutal backup, Jarrod Bryant plays in his place, and Navy goes from one of my favorite squads to back to an unbetable pile of dreck. Throughout the season, Navy has proven it's lack of worth.All of it's "impressive" wins are the result of an orgy of turnovers provided by the opposition(Wake and Air Force for example), and when teams haven't turned the ball over, i.e. Pitt a few weeks ago, they've found themselves in trouble. Defensively, they cannot hang with an offense like Notre Dame's, even if the Irish fails to show up, which they won't. Jarrod Bryant is indeed starting this week. Since Ken Niumatuololololo doesn't seem to be a complete basket case, I'll go ahead and assume he'll move to his somewhat capable 3rd string QB, Ricky Dobbs at some point early in the second quarter. It's possible by then that ND will be up 17-0 by that point, so it will probably be too late.

2. @Maryland +3 v North Carolina: It must be nice to have been outgained for the season by your opposition, yet still be favored on the road against a team going to a bowl. That's the case for the Tar Heels this week as they tee it up with the bipolar Maryland Terrapins. Maryland s among the most inconsistent teams in creation, as they have found ways to absolutely dominate Wake one week, then lose badly to MTSU the week after. They have been good at home, however, notching a 5-0 record in College Park this season. Offensively, they have the weapons necessary to win this game easily, and their defense can hold their own. I also like MD's offense, as the switch out of Steffy to Mr Sunshine has garnered some passing competency, and their run game remains good. I see an upset here, albeit a small one.

3. Nebraska -6 @Kansas St: Over the past several weeks, Nebraska has played much better than they did at the beginning of the season, when Va Tech's junior high offense ran them ragged and then Missouri toyed around with them the following week. Since then, however, they have looked good, starting with their trip to Lubbock in which they were about the only team to have figured out any way to control Tech's offense. Other than their obligatory thrashing at Oklahoma, they've pretty much dominated everyone else. They still have problems with good passing games, but their problems pale in comparison to K St's on the defensive side of the ball. It's been a well known fact that K St can't stop anyone on defense, and theie entore coaching staff is a collection of lame ducks as a result. At this point, K State is probably incapable of covering anything other than a 20+ spread against a disinterested superior opponent. This week, they have a smaller than a touchdown spread against a motivated superior opponent in an environment where the fans will probably be more interested in expressing their ire for the outgoing collection of dolts that sent their program back to laughingstock status than providing some sort of home field advantage to the inept juco mercenary thugs wearing their beloved colors.

4. @Nevada -15 v San Jose St: I'm still a little stung from the historically inept offensive performance turned in by SJSU last week. In case you didn't notice(and if you didn't good for you) they polluted the musings last week by allowing themselves to fall prey to the jungle cat-like savagery of.....Louisiana Tech? In that game, here's what they accomplished, against a defense that could have been previously characterized as "run of the mill", "uninteresting", "milquetoast" or "forgettable". At home, mind you, against a team that traveled across the entire country: Zero points. 148 total yards(62 on a fluke tipped pass, leaving 86 for the remainder of the 56 plays they ran). 6 first downs. Now they travel to Nevada to face a team that has quite a bit to play for in a possible bowl berth, and who is hitting their stride offensively. On defense, they are ranked second in the country against the run, so SJSU will have to get dynamic with the passing game to have any success, a laughable suggestion. Nevada is the #5 offense in the country, #1 in rushing. There is really no way SJSU can keep up with them in this one, unless all of Nevada's skill guys get absconded on the way to the stadium.

5. @Colorado St +2 v New Mexico: I really can't see why Colorado St is the underdog in this game. Perhaps people are still impressed by their 70-7 win over San Diego St several weeks ago. CSU was actually made the favorite when lines came out, but the betting public(maybe some admittedly sharp money) has flipped the numbers. Colorado St has been good at home this year, playing very close with both BYU and TCU and beating a very good offensive team in Houston early in the year. New Mexico has been eliminated from bowl contention while CSU, despite a 4-6 record, can get to bowl eligibility with wins in this game and next week at Wyoming. Very doable. There is also a mismatch between a capable CSU passing offense and a New Mexico D that has been giving up a lot of big plays in the passing game. For the year, New Mexico's QB's have a 3/13 ratio..the inability to pass effectively does not lead to success in sustaining drives on the road. If they can run it down CSU's throats for 4 quarters, God love 'em, but I'm guessing they'll have to do more than that.

6. @Oregon St -3 v California: As I mentioned before, I think Oregon St is going to run the table and win the BCS bid for the PAC 10. I might be the only person who thinks that though, and I believe that the Beavs have read all about it. I happen to think that Mike Riley is a really good coach, especially in an underdog role. They aren't dogs here per se, but their overall situation still can be classified as that. I comes Cal, who has the rep and overall feel of a "contending team" so most people might see this as a great opportunity for the Beavs to drop one. I don't really see it. Cal is coming off a poor performance on the road at SC(offensively, at least) and they are once again flip flopping QBs. They venture out on the road again this week against a team with everything to play for, who is well coached, is balanced on both sides of the ball and Cal only gets 3 points? Not enough in my opinion. I'm not actually sure who is going to play QB for Oregon St, but it doesn't really matter. What used to be a major handicap for OSU in the past has turned to a strength, as both Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao have shown they can move the ball through the air. They also have a very good running game and a solid defense. This is a legit squad.

7. @Michigan -3 v Northwestern:Obviously, Michigan doesn't really have anything to play for when it comes to their original goal setting at the beginning of the year, but they are making some progress, and Dick Rod is undoubtedly spinning their recent success and improved competitiveness as progress. They are on an upswing at this point, and played very well last week in their demolition of Minnesota. Now Northwestern limps into Ann Arbor coming off a shellacking from Ohio St, and they are banged up to boot. They pretty much have to win this one outright to cover this number, nd I think that's asking a lot of the Cats right now. If they get up off the mat and win at the Big House, kudos will be in store for Pat Fitzgerald. I have a feeling though that beating Michigan now is going to be a lot tougher than if they would have played them in October.

8. Texas -13 @Kansas: I hate to jump on the bandwagon of the most public game of the week, but this one looks pretty bleak for Kansas. KU has been exposed as a shell of itself last year, especially on defense. If Texas brings even it's B game on defense, Todd Reesing's head might actually fall off, as bad as he's been beaten up in recent weeks. Offensively, their line has shown very little ability to protect him, and Texas will be the toughest test they have faced this year. Defensively, they are simply overmatched, and the 'Horns will need to pile it on because style points are going to be part of the picture in the B12 South race.

9. @Florida -22 v South Carolina: Keep in mind that I hate Florida, and I've been wrong on them quite a bit in the past, but almost always in the misguided form of going against them. I've learned that this is almost always a futile proposition, because I always forget that all that Urban Meyer has to do is stare purposely at the field with a furrowed brow and every possible break that can manifest itself within the confines of a football game comes out in Florida's favor. They will score 38 points minimum in this game, regardless of how well they play, or how many yards they accumulate. On the other hand, South Carolina is not very good on offense, and Florida has been solid as well as (surprise!) opportunistic on defense. I will be stunned if they don't score at least 1 maybe two TD's on defense and ST. When I look into my crystal balls on this game, I see a lot of pained expressions and whipped visors from the ball coach. Blowout.

10. Louisiana Monroe+22 1/2@ Ole Miss: Here's another example of a much better team finding itself in a spot where the underdog they face won't get their best shot. Ole Miss s much improved, that much is true, but they still have flaws, among them a somewhat porous defense and a penchant for turning the ball over. Those two issues make it difficult to cover 3 TD+ spreads if you are not completely focused on the task at hand. Ole Miss has a trip to LSU on deck in a season in which they have to think they have a shot to win down there for the first time in a long while. Lou-Mon, meanwhile has not been bad, playing competitively in the Sun Belt, and showing competence on offense with Kinsmon Lancaster barking out the signals(19/5 ratio). They aren't a pushover, so if Ole Miss blows them out, it means they played extremely well. I thin the chances of that happening in this environment are not as good as the alternative.

Others: Iowa is an 18 1/2 point favorite at home against Purdue. Purdue has been pathetic offensively on the road in terms of scoring points, but have gotten some yards. Defensively, they have held Ohio St to 16 Penn St to 20 and Michigan St to 14(on offense). Iowa obviously isn't a juggernaut on offense. If Purdue can just slog through this game without handing Iowa points on defense, they should be able to cover that......I think Kentucky(-3 1/2) should be able to handle Vandy at home, as Vandy is going into their season ending losing spree to avoid a bowl game for something like the 30th year in a row. Since they made a QB change, Kentucky has improved measurably on offense, and their defense has been fine all year. They should be able to keep Vandy's challenged offense under wraps.....Wake is laying 3 1/2 at NC St. Currently, they are in the drivers seat in the ACC Coastline division or whatever the hell they call it, but they can easily lose this game if they aren't careful as NC State is playing their best ball in a couple years and Wake is prone to problems when they are favored. I'll be betting on NC St, as I think it's a 50/50 game and NC St gets the benefit of the FG helper....I really want to pull the trigger on Arizona as they travel to Oregon but only if the spread gets to 7. It started at 3 and has gone all the way to 6 1/2, but I don't trust them getting less than a TD. Oregon has figured out ways to keep themselves in games with opponents at home all year, so I'd like to get 7. Probably will be a no play though.....Does Minnesota have anything left? A modicum of pride? If so, despite the loss of Eric Decker, they would have a fighting chance to hang with Wisconsin since I think the line is a big overreaction to last week's results. I have a hunch they'll get a couple of turnovers and keep it close on Wisconsin. If they get their dobbers down, though, 13 1/2 won't be enough. That's it for this week. Have a nice weekend, and hopefully we'll get a better card next week. This one is underwhelming. Not that I won't be watching.