Week 11 Musings

Nice start to the week, with Utah scraping past TCU in a game they almost certainly should have lost. TCU's inability to finish drives ultimately did them in, and Utah's penchant for doing whatever it takes to win bailed them out tonight. If that game was in Ft Worth, how many points would TCU have won by? 21? Probably. No matter. We roll on. Oh, I almost forgot!! Did anyone see the most awesomest thing that Utah did last night? Well, it was a really big game, so Utah came out in....get this.....ALL BLACK uniforms!!! And the fans wore all black too!!!!! They called it a BLACKOUT!!! It was so awesome! They looked all menacing, and the fans did too. I didn't even know that black was one of Utah's colors! I think it's GREAT when teams get creative like that!!! YAY UTAH!!

I will say that last week just turned out to be "one of those weeks". 3-8 when the dust settled. Ouch!! It was probably the worst full card week I've ever had since I started writing this weekly claptrap. To be honest though, this was somewhat of a departure from previous bad weeks, after which I would look in the mirror, shake my head disgustedly and tell the image to go F itself. This time, a lot of the games were sound plays...they just don't come in sometimes. Also when you play a lot of dogs, some of those teams will have weeks where they get stopped on downs within their opponents 20 on 5 consecutive drives and then give up the spread beater on a twice tipped pass with 2 minutes left while already down 14.(Like EMU did), or go a span of 3 quarters without forcing anything less than a TD on any drive(like Iowa St did.). It happens. By the way Okie St averaged just under 11 yards per play in that game. That's PER PLAY, not per completion, or even per passing attempt. PER PLAY. It's a wonder that they didn't score a hundred.

I also must report on my growing level of disdain for Pete Carroll. This week, he came out and admitted that he thinks the BCS "sucks". Well, I guess that's not too surprising there, jackass, since the process doesn't let you lose as a 20+ point favorite every year and still bestow a BCS opportunity on your lap. For the love of God, man, STOP LOSING TO SHIT TEAMS! Got it? Fantastic, now go talk some more agents into taking the fall for your program. I've also just about had it with Florida. Why is it that they are showered with 15 yard TD drives 4 times a week? I realize that Georgia got bum rushed, but consider: Florida had their first TD drive kept alive by a personal foul penalty, their second one aided by a horrifically bad spot which turned a 4th and 2 punting situation inexplicably into a first down. Their third one was on an 88 yard INT return. Once they get ahead, they bury you, but their ability to get ahead was aided by other issues this week. Bad calls here, good bounces there, and Urban Meyer looking on sternly, as if his resolve made it happen. I have to start looking for ways to avoid betting against these guys.

By the way, if you're a football fan in the state of Washington, wow. The Seahawks are surprisingly bad, and what do we make of these two Washington teams in the Pac-10. Last week, they lost by a combined 114-0. Washington did it's best WSU impression this week against USC. They were outgained 354-34, out forst downed 18-1, and the one was via a penalty, and it didn't come until their 6th possession. As for WAZZOU, is there even any point in talking about it anymore? You could suit suit up the Broadway cast of Cats, including the costume designers and choreographers, and they'd probably show an improvement in toughness. Arizona is the recipient of the wonderful feeling of covering a 40+ point spread by halftime this week.

Onto the week:

2.(FRIDAY NIGHT) @Fresno St +1 1/2 v Nevada: This spread did an about face yesterday, thanks to our friend Dr Bob, who obviously has looked at the rushing statistics for both teams and concludes that Fresno will be chasing QB Colin Kaepernick and company around like a bunch of beheaded chickens. Only a non-Troy Aikman FOX NFL color guy would disagree, since all logic and statistical data backs him up on that. As a result of this data, Fresno, who admittedly has played down to their competition since they realized they wouldn't be the non-BCS media darling this year is now an underdog, providing some material for Pat Hill, the ultimate us against them type coach. I'll also let you in on another secret...Nevada is last in college football in pass defense, allowing 328 yards per game. Fresno , quite uncharacteristically, is throwing the ball with very good efficiency last year. So now Nevada is expected to come into Fresno and win on the road against what really is a pretty good team. Well, what then is the worst case scenario for Fresno? How about if Nevada runs all over them, say to the tune of almost 8 ypc, and Fresno runs for single digit yardage?(possible since Nevada is 2nd in the nation in run D(!!!)). Well it happened last week in Nevada's game with Hawaii, as the Pack ran for 308 yards on 40 carries to 42 yards on 28 carries for Hawaii, and they lost anyway. That game was in Hawaii, so Nevada has had to return from a late night game on the island and get back on the road this week. Hawaii threw for an almost perfect efficiency rating on Nevada last week, so Fresno is likely to do the same. I just can't see them handling things on the road in this spot, despite their great running game. Everyone likes Nevada, and I do to, but I think they lose do to their inability to stop the forward pass.

3. Ohio St -11 @Northwestern: Not sure who is going to start for Northwestern this week, but it'll be either an less than 100% CJ Bacher, who hasn't been that great this year anyway, or backup Mike Kafka. The likelihodd is extremely low that Kafka will be able to repeat his Bobby Douglass impression against the Buckeyes, who have absolutely owned the 'Cats in recent year, most notably last year, a 58-7 trouncing in Columbus. Keep in mind that The Cats couldn't muster any offensive scores in the entire second half against a Swiss Cheese pass D like Minnesota, so you're likely to see some major struggles from them offensively here. Terrelle Pryor and Chris Wells are obviously bad matchups for the Cats D as well. I'd love to see the Cats be competitive in this one, but I am not counting on it.

4. Western Michigan +7 1/2(soon to be 8) v Illinois: Sandwich spot for Illinois,and I suppose the location on the schedule of this game would make that the case regardless of who was coming up on the schedule. Ohio St is on deck for a trip to Champiagn, so this trip to a neutral site game in Detroit seems like somewhat of a pain in the ass to make. Illinois, in my opinion, is extremely vulnerable to any kind of situational disadvantages, because they are not mature enough or well coached enough to avoid letdowns when they think they should win, especially away from home. In this game, they face a team that can exploit their weakness, which is pass defense. QB Tim Hiller is 6th in the country in passing yardage per game, completes almost 70% of his passes and sports a 28/5 ratio. If you watched Dustin Scherer effortlessly convert 3rd and 15's to various random college students streaking uncovered through the secondary a couple weeks back against Wisconsin, you know that a potent passing attack is a bad formula for the Illini. On the other side of the ball, if Illinois just tells Juice Williams to air it out and go downfield, WMU won't be able to stop it. Of course, that won't happen, because Illinois's chronic addition to slow developing "spready" short passes and option runs generally allows even casual observer type defenses to force 3rd and longs on them. As an Illinois fan, I'm afraid of a loss here. Maybe that's my bias talking, and all disclosures are communicated here as a result, but it looks like a bad matchup for the Illini to me.

5. Arkansas +13 @ South Carolina: This is just too many points. South Carolina is on it's second consecutive home game, this time early in the day, and they have Florida and Clemson as their two remaining games. This, to me, looks like a game in which Arkansas won't get South Carolina's best shot. Defensively, Arkansas is not very good, but they just played the best offense in D-1 (Tulsa) and held them to 23 points, so controlling South Carolina's pedestrian unit when they might not have their A game might not be much of a task. In order to cover this, South Carolina will probably have to score a TD on D or special teams, because it's likely that Arkansas, despite South Carolina's prowess on defense will figure out some ways to get points on the board, as they have improved all season. If Casey Dick turns gets benevolent and starts serving up picks as appetizers, all bets are off, but that's the case in any game. Too many points here for a so-so offense to be expected to cover.

6. NC State +3 1/2 @Duke: Everyone is of course all excited about Duke, especially after they surprised people a couple weeks ago and beat Vandy on the road, but now as a favorite, I think they might be in over their heads. NC State remains a good dog play since Russell Wilson will be under center, and they have shown an ability to move the ball on the ground and through the air. Defensively they haven't been good, but Duke is barely hitting the 300 mark in total yards, so they won't be facing a juggernaut. More of a fade of Duke as a favorite, and a play on NC State as a dog, kind of a best of times/worst of times scenario.

7. Wisconsin -9 1/2 @Indiana: Indiana has packed it in, they have no chance to go to a bowl and they just lost their second game to a MAC opponent at home this year. Bill Lynch, since that is the case, is probably going to bench team pouter Kellen Lewis per reports locally, which robs Indiana of much of their usefulness as a home dog. Wisconsin just gagged a game away last week...they will not be in the mood to hang around with the Hoosiers this week, and I doubt that Indiana will have much interest in sucking t up to stop the Badgers two headed rushing attack. A couple turnovers/quick scores early, and this one will be a laugher.

8. Kansas +1 1/2 @Nebraska: In the last 3 years vs the Huskers, Kansas has scored 76, lost in overtime as a 22 point dog, and blown out Nebraska 40-15 in a pick em game. Safe to say that Mark Mangino has done his job in getting the Jayhawks ready to play and having a pretty good plan, I guess. In this one, KU is a little bit better than Nebraska in all phases, and the Jayhawks are playing for more, as they still have an outside shot at the Big 12 North and stand at 6-3. Nebraska has really struggled to stop the run, and KU has seen that part of their offensive game improve steadily all year. I like KU here..

9. @San Jose St -7 v Louisiana Tech: LT scored a big upset last week by knocking off Fresno St, and did so using a concept previously foreign to them: points on offense. Now, coming off that great occurrence, they travel all the way across the country to face what is probably the best defense in their conference. On the road this year, they've averaged 6 points a game topping out with 14 at Hawaii among their 4 road games. Chances of them getting more than about 10 at SJSU are pretty remote, unless they do things they have not done in several years, not just this year. SJSU shouldn't have a problem finding points against LT's garden variety defense either.

10. @Colorado -9 1/2 v Iowa St: Any chance to fade Iowa St on the road and not have to lay double digits must be jumped on at this juncture. In their last 3 road games, (Okie St, covered earlier, Baylor and UNLV) the Cyclones have been outgained by 320, 178 and 148. Throw in a complete destruction by Nebraska at home in there and you have a recipe for blowouts. Now Colorado, by the way, would not be my first choice for a team to back at this point, hell they wouldn't be my 50th based on the complete pussification of their offense during the year, but they'll do. Defensively, they don't embarrass themselves(at least in non-Missouri games), and they can run it a bit. I also will still say that their offensive talent is much better than it's shown.

11. Arizona St -14 1/2 @ Washington: In most cases, I would never back ASU as a road favorite, but Washington is in such a horrific state right now, they must also be faded. Their defense cannot stop a soul, living or dead, as evidenced by their ranking of dead last in the FBS in total defense. Arizona St has not much to play for, but showed signs of life last week at Oregon St, and have been energized by the play of some young people, especially true freshman Ryan Bass at running back. In addition to their putrid offense, Washington has nothing to offer offensively either. Their game with Washington St coming up will be the retard fight of all time, with people from around the country tuning in to witness the awkward punches and uncoordinated lurching.

12. @Missouri -27 v Kansas St. Mizzou will absolutely name the score this week, as K St has completely given up, and still hasn't found a way to stop any offense, much less one like MIssouri's who is still taking their frustrations out on people to compensate for previous failures. As K state fans shudder at the thought of the specter of the mid 80's, they are now pining for Bill Snyder to come back to rescue a program that bad coaching and juco talent have poisoned. Take that combination(bad coaching and juco players), have them give up, and see what happens. Ron prince already resigned in anticipation. It's a big spread, but it's going to be a bloodbath, much like the Colorado game in Columbia earlier this year.

13 Stanford +14 @Orgon: Despite Oregon's penchant for stopping the run, I think Toby Gerhart, who has been able to run on everyone when healthy, will get his yards, and I think the Cardinal have played tough enough to show that they won't get blown out here. Oregon also, despite high expectations, has not really taken care of business in a dominant manner at home, with their games with UCLA and Boise in Eugene being examples. In the end, I just don't think Oregon's QB play allows them to run away and hide like the could before, and if Stanford can chew up th clock and make them impatient, the Cardinal might have a shot at knocking them off. Harbaugh seems to have a knack for doing that crap.


Others: I like ND(+3 1/2) to win at BC. If BC can get borderline dominated against Clemson, the Irish can go in there and win, especially if Chris Crane has more dropsy issues......Minnesota should handle Michigan(-7 1/2), especially since Threet probably won't play and Michigan can't stop a soul on defense. 530 yards to Purdue's 3rd string QB?? Come on, now. Minnesota's Achilles heel is pass defense, which won't come into play much against the Wolverines, as we all know......Baylor is catching 28 at Texas...they impressively hung with Missouri last week, and Texas is very banged up. They are unlikely to get much of an inspired effort from the Longhorns, so I think 28 is a very manageable number here....Wake is a home favorite against Virginia...all caveats in play on Wake as a home favorite of course. It's likely to be a FG fest so 3 1/2 points can be valuable...That's about it for the week.....hope everyone does well....