2008 Bowl Musings Part 1

As we move to the bowls this year, I feel significantly more comfortable looking at the lines this year than I did in the previous two years. I can vividly remember, both last year and the year before that, staring at the lines and drawing a blank. Not really the case this year. Actually, handicapping the bowls is a different animal overall than handicapping the regular season. You have to take motivation into consideration more now, and coaching, while always important, is even moreso now because of the time off, and the structure needed to adequately communicate and execute a game plan. So, having said that, there are generally three areas I look for edges among teams in bowl season:

1. Who has the motivational edge?
2. Who has the smarter/better coach?
3. Who has the better QB?

This isn't the end all be all for a bowl matchup, but if you can find a team with edges in all 3 areas, you're probably looking at a team that should be a DD favorite, and if you don't see that, you probably have yourself a very logical play. In most cases you won't see a big discrepancy in these areas, so I won't be harping on them constantly in the write ups, but when they're there, I'll let you know. I'm going to start with the first week or so of games up until Christmas.

1. BYU +3 v Arizona: Ok, here is one game where all three of the aforementioned factors might be on one side. Actually, I know that Bronco Mendenhall is a superior coach to Mike Stoops, and frankly so does Mike Stoops and everyone on both teams. Truthfully, both of these teams were not very good when they ventured on the road this year. BYU was shellacked in their game at TCU, and imploded in the 4th quarter at Utah. Arizona, meanwhile, gave up 55 points at Oregon, 36 at New Mexico, 28 @ Wazzou, the most pathetic excuse for a football team we saw all year, and 24 in an embarrassing run D display at Stanford. The two teams are similar in the passing game, both offensively and defensively, with perhaps a slight edge to BYU due to a recent move toward a more conservative running attack for Arizona. But there isn't much of a comparison in the running games. Arizona is giving up more than 5 yards a rush on the road, and Harvey Unga and company can run it for sure, as their 7.0 per rush numbers vs the 14 rush D in the country (Utah) attest. I think BYU will have their way with Arizona's porous D in Vegas, and I think the motivational edge favors BYU as well, as MWC teams generally salivate at the chance to knock off a Pac 10 school, and they have an ownership in this bowl as the one representing their conference. Definite edge at QB, certain edge in coaching, and I also think.the motivational edge favors BYU here. And I get 3 points? OK.

2. TCU -2 v Boise St: It's become clear that in most cases, fading Boise for any reason is generally not a good idea. It's unclear at times how they get it done, but complete dismantlings of pretty decent teams often happen when Boise gets their hands on them. Taking a look at this year's team, they went undefeated again, garnering a lot of positive press(obviously) in the process. They score 45-49 every week against the dregs of the WAC(which was considerably down this year), and their defense is very good. However, they are in a place where few teams should want to find themselves, and that is looking toward a date with the TCU Horned Frogs. TCU's defense is absolutely brutal to play against, and they are frothing at the mouth right now due to some perceived dissing or a general lack of attention from the CFB press. Coach Gary Patterson was livid after his season ended because some talking head said something nice about BYU when the nicety should have been directed at TCU. Patterson is certainly still seething about that game in November when TCU's kicker shit the bed on two short FGs resulting in Utah's eventual theft of a game TCU dominated in Salt Lake. Patterson publicly begged for a shot at Boise. In my opinion, there is no doubt that TCU will have a motivational edge in this one, as even though TCU is certainly a formidable opponent, I think it is difficult for Boise to be as excited to play them in the Poinsettia Bowl as they would have been to play a BCS heavyweight. Boise also has not faced a defense even in the same stratosphere with TCU all season. In fact, only 3 of their opponents are ranked even in the top 75 in total D. TCU has played Oklahoma, Utah and BYU, and pretty much destroyed everyone else on their schedule. Perhaps the Boise pixie dust will prevail once again, but this time they are playing a well coached, pissed off, legitimate top 12 team looking to prove something. If Boise wins this, hats off to them, but I think they are headed into a hornet's nest.

3. Notre Dame -1 @Hawaii: After watching the North Shore Country Day v New England Patriots level shitkicking that ND was subjected to in the LA Coloseum 2 weeks ago, it becomes pretty understandable as to why most people, especially those with a cynical, sarcastic anti-ND bent would think that ND is going to further embarrass themselves on the island against this hopelessly medicore Hawaii squad. Hawaii's MO is to lure some team to the island who is either overmatched or unmotivated so they can ambush them in pleasant weather conditions while their wild Samoan goon squad fanbase does the same to the unsuspecting polite vacationers on the other side. Well, I suspect that ND's team will be neither overmatched nor unmotivated, since they have become the laughingstock of college football over their last 2 games. Let's put those last 2 games aside and look at ND's season as a whole. Before the USC game they had outgained 8 straight opponents, including 3 bowl teams on the road. For the year, they have allowed only 327 yards per game, good for 38th best in the country. There is no doubt that they have a significant talent advantage, since this is a rebuilding Hawaii team, and Weis is facing a first year guy in Greg McMackin. Michael Floyd will be back, so their corners will have to deal with Golden Tate and Michael Floyd on either side, and Hawaii blitzes a lot, so there should be ample opportunities for Jimmy Clausen to beat man coverage if he can keep himself from being steamrolled by the rush.There is no excuse for Fat Charlie if he doesn't bust that bowl losing streak this year. If you can't beat the 4th best team in the WAC when you should have the motivational edge, you need to just forget about catching the plane back home, stay on the island and transition into a new, but well rehearsed role as a beached whale.

Others: I lean to Navy(+3) in the early game Saturday, but it's really hard to call that game because it's a rematch(boo). Navy won the first one on the road outright as a 12 point dog due to Riley Skinner's horrific day at the office. Most people would look at that game and chalk it up as a fluke because of all the turnovers, but Navy actually got the better of Wake in that game statistically as well, as they outgained them by more than a yard per play. Navy also generally matches up well with teams that can't blow them off the field offensively, but Wake, at #103 offensively, is not one of those teams. Kaipo looks good medically, and that makes Navy much more explosive because he does a much better job than the rest of yahoos Navy has suited up at Qb this year at getting the ball to Shun White. You can almost expect a couple of long runs from him in this game. Don't forget that Navy has shut out the last 2 teams they've faced (Army and NIU) and both of those teams are pretty similar to Wake offensively.......The Colorado St/Fresno game is a complete tossup, but since Fresno generally doesn't feel like giving a shit unless they are matched up with a BCS squad, they'll probably give a half assed effort, so I'll take the points with Colorado St, who definitely is capable up putting up 30+ on Fresno even on a good day for the Bulldogs.....No real opinion on Memphis(+12) v USF, but I guess I'll take the points, since Memphis does have a pretty good offense, and USF can't possibly care about this game, and they have turned in some brutal performances this year when they were not interested. The only problem is that Memphis has stunk up the joint in their games against decent defensive squads, which USF generally is(13th in total D).....No opinion on the New Orleans bowl, but for interest purposes, I'll take the points (Southern Miss +4 v Troy). USM has been great in their last 4 games, they have a good QB and some BCS caliber athletes. Troy might too, but they're not the ones getting 4.

That's it for now.....good luck, and I'll have more right around Christmas.