Week 15 Musings ("Championship Week")

Sorry for the lateness....

Last week was another one of those weeks...4-7 overall, highlighted by some miserable handicapping, most notably with South Carolina and UTEP(though I heard that the Miners had a flu epidemic that week, so they can be partially excused.) South Carolina just stunk, and I really should have seen that coming, since the Ball Coach is beyond overrated at this point.Why do people still give this guy props. The visor flings and gnashing of teeth has outnumbered the smarmy grins by about a 10 to 1 ratio in recent years. How many medieval beatdowns is it going to take until we all figure out that he's no better than the next guy when it comes to offensive schemes? Also, you might have heard that UCLA gave up a total of 120 yards in their game vs Arizona St, yet still failed to cover a double digit spread, thanks to their handing ASU 4, count em 4 defensive scores and a 60 yard punt return that set up another FG. What are the chances that a team could give up 4 defensive TDs and not be counted on for a cover by Pete LaVette? 5%? Whatever...the 4-7 week gets us to 84-66 for the year on the numbereds (56%). We need a good week this week. I also think I am going to keep close track of the bowls this year, so we won't close out the numbers until the end of the bowl season. Still hoping for at least 57%.

Lots of coaching casualties this week, and wouldn't you know it, good old dickface got tossed out at Auburn. So did Sly Croom!! Two of my favorite coaches to either intensely dislike(Tuberville) or pity(Sly) are now gone. I'll have to take inventory, because I'm not even sure who I like and dislike anymore. On to the week...you are not going to believe this, but I am on all favorites this week. I'm borderline ashamed of myself, but these are the right sides.

1. Ball St -14 1/2 v Buffalo: I would consider buying this down to 14, but that might be expensive because this spread may have climbed to 15. I'll be doing it, though to be safe. Ball St comes into this game under some criticism in some quarters because they refused a chance to play Boise in the Humanitarian Bowl on the Blue turf. Count me among those who don't fault them for that. I'm pretty excited about a potential Boise/TCU matchup in the Poinsettia Bowl anyway, so I'm not too disappointed about it. Anyway, Ball St needs this game to put the finishing touches on an undefeated regular season, and only Buffalo remains in the way. The Bulls are a much improved squad in recent years, but I just don't see them competing in this one. Buffalo has a nice offense, especially at the skill positions as QB Willy, RB Starks and WR Roosevelt all are solid players. But as a whole, Buffalo isn't much better than a middle of the pack squad, as they won 2 OT games in the MAC and a third on a Hail Mary as time expired, so 7-5 could easily be 4-8. Ball St, meanwhile hasn't really been stopped by anyone all season, and Buffalo, with it's 94th ranked overall defense will be no departure from that. These two teams, with just about all of the same players, matched up last year and it wasn't even a ballgame, as Ball was up 28-0 early in the second quarter. I just don't see Buffalo getting many stops in this game, and their offense, while competent, isn't explosive enough to keep up on the scoreboard. I can see a 45-17 type game rather easily.

2. Florida -9 1/2 v Alabama: First of all, let me say that this pains me greatly to write. I had every intention of being on Bama in this game, and I will be rooting hard for them, but after closer inspection and reflection, they are probably going to lose this game handily, and I like money, so I'll be on Florida. If you spend time trying to make a case for Alabama, you have to point to their ability to "control the clock" to keep the Florida offense off the field. Whenever your hear that as a strategy for a team, how does that work out? Every once in awhile, you'll see a game like Nebraska v Texas Tech this year, but for the most part, the explosive team blows the grinders out. Another supposed arrow in the Bama quiver is their defense, but I would submit to you that Florida's is just about as good, ranking 7th nationally in yards per play, while Bama is ranked 3rd. If Bama is going to hang in this game, they have to be able to get off to a good start, get ahead, get some breaks and wear Florida down. I just don't see that happening. While Bama can run the ball, the fact still remains that they struggle to throw the ball. JP Wilson has not hurt them this year, but in this environment, we're talking about a different set of circumstances. We all know that the omniscient Urban Meyer is going to control all the breaks to go Florida's way, so when they get a twice tipped pass for a 65 yard TD to open the game, what will Bama do then? If Florida stacks the line and stops the run, the game is esentially over, because as good as Alabama's defense is, the difference in speed is still too much to overcome. They are going to give up points in this game, and unless JP Wilson turns into some latter day version of Norm Van Brocklin, Bama won't be able to keep up. It's true that I can conjure up a scenario where Saban and company go in and get the job done through hard work, physicality and dirty tricks, but how much more likely is it that Florida dominates the Tide on defense and has it's normal game on offense, leading to a rout? I'd say 3 or 4 times more likely. Also, don't get excited about that spread. When a team scores like Florida does, and can put up 30-40 points on anyone, 9 1/2 isn't a lot. Bama could play a great game and still not cover that, especially if Florida gets the breaks they are accustomed to. And since I will be rooting hard emotionally for Bama, you can bet the farm that they'll get 'em.

3. Oklahoma -16 1/2 v Missouri: The fact remains that Oklahoma basically cannot be stopped at this point. It's child's play for them, and has been in every game since the second half vs Texas when the inexplicably went through a 4 drive span without scoring, leading to their loss. The more I see them, the more I think that was a fluke. Nobody in the Big 12 can stop them... certainly not Missouri, who ranks 117th in the country in passing yards against. Think Sam Bradford might have a chance to be successful this week? Remember that when Missouri teed it up with good teams this year, they lost. Oklahoma St beat them rather soundly, and Mizzou clearly demonstrated that they did not belong on the same field with Texas. If you remember, here's how that game went: Mizzou: 3 and out. Texas TD. Mizzou 3 and out. Texas TD. Mizzou 3 and out Texas TD. Mizzou three and out. Texas TD. Commence garbage time. In order to hang in this game, they will have to have their best game of the year by far on offense and figure out some way to revamp their pass defense to keep OU under 50. I really see no evidence that they are any different from any of the other defenses that have given up 60+ to OU recently, and they are not coming in with any positive momentum, having blown their rivalry game with KU. Oklahoma will not be taking their foot off the gas either. Even if Sam Bradford gets him arm caught in a thresher or something, I think OU covers this. Beatdown.

4. @Arizona -10 1/2 v Arizona St: The Sun Devils won't have Kevin Craft to bail them out this week. Arizona is very good at home, on both sides of the ball. Arizona St's offense is a borderline embarrassment, and Arizona will be jacked up to rub it in their faces. I'm not impressed with the intestinal fortitude of ASU, so if they get behind early, don't expect much of a fight. I know it's another favorite, but it's another game where the dog finds itself in a tough matchup. Expect a lot of Rudy Carpenter writhing on the turf, then dramatically limping off to the sideline, only to come back and get pummeled again. He might actually openly weep. Look for that.

5. Navy -10 1/2 v Army: I'm sure everyone is stunned on this one. 5 favorites in a row, and I'm almost always on Army in this game. Actually, I had to rewrite my paragraph on this one, since I originally liked Army, due to their relatively solid season and their previous nice performance against Air Force. However, there are too many obstacles for Army in this one. First, it appears that Kaipo is going to play in this game for Navy, and Army's QB Chip Bowden sprained his ankle in practice this week. That changes everything. For Army to have a chance in this one, they need to have all hands on deck at 100%. A sprained ankle is a big deal. Even if he plays, it's still going to hamper him. Navy is weak against the pass, but they are 40th in the country against the run, which is all Army can do. Army is unquestionably the worst passing offense in America (4 yards per attempt). In addition, their special teams are a nightmare, and you can pretty much chalk up a turnover disadvantage for them, since Navy has been very good all year at forcing turnovers. If Army gets behind, or has to make up for a turnover or two, it's sayonnara. I will destroy my TV if I see Jarrod Bryant trotting out there at QB, but even if Kaipo wimps out again, they'll probably go with Ricky Dobbs at QB. Again. I will probably be emotionally rooting for the other side, but my head is telling me that there are too many factors going against Army here, and the line continues to trend down.

6. @Troy -11 v Arky St: I generally like Arkansas St because they always seem to outgain their opponents, but Troy has some sort of voodoo curse over them. I remember last year, when a dominant at home Arky St team welcomed a struggling Troy bunch and troy somehow thumped them 27-0 in Jonesboro. This year, it's kind of more of the same, as Arky St has been solid at home, but a different team on the road. Troy meanwhile is outgaining opponents 504-235 at home and outscoring them by an average of 40-8. Combine the jedi mind tricks with a clear advantage on paper, and you have yourself a recipe for a rout.

Others: Love the fact that Pete Carroll is directing the Trojans to wear red in their game at UCLA. That's sweet. Both teams home uniforms are miles better than their roadies..love it. USC is laying 32, the same number they did to ND. It's a road game, but not really, as UCLA is selling out the Rose Bowl so plenty of Trojan fans will be there. USC certainly can shut out UCLA if they feel like it, and would probably win the game even if the only offensive player they suited up was the punter. What are the chances Kevin Craft suffers a couple turnovers in this one? Right, pretty good. 32 is ton, though, and the good feelings with the whole uniform situation might lead PC to keep it down. Also, I don't trust Neuheisel. It would surprise me to see USC players dropping like flies because he snuck into their locker room and spiked their Gatorade. USC really should hammer them though.....I'm leaning toward BC in their pick 'em game with VT that nobody cares to watch. They played once, and VT got two defensive scores and still lost. If you take away Tyrod Taylor's scrambling in that game, VT totaled about 100 yards of offense. They won't be able to run it on BC. BC has their backup going in this one, but that might be a good thing considering how turnover prone starter Chris Crane has been. BC has also shown an ability to come up with big picks, and VT's Qbs have a 5/10 ratio. I also think BC is a little better in the skill positions, so I'll give them the edge to play in an Orange Bowl that will be appealing to about 10 people in the entire country. Since there will be a line on that game, count me among the ten.....The C-USA game is a really interesting game. If it was on a neutral site I would be all over East Carolina +DD vs Tulsa, but for some reason, it's at Tulsa. Since Tulsa's lowest output at home this year is 49 points, it would take a heck of a lot more than 12 1/2 points to go against the Golden Hurricane..... I also lean to UCONN(-2 1/2) over Pitt as a fade on Wanny. There isn't much to play for in Pitt's case, so coaching and motivation will come into play a bit more here. Not a good sign if you're a Pitt backer and you're on the road against a well coached team.