Bowl Musings Continued (Part 2)

1-2 to start, not surprising since I have gotten off to bad starts the past couple of years. I have to say, though, that I think you can make a case for all 3 being the right side. For example, a confluence of about 8 events had to come together for TCU to avoid covering the Poinsettia Bowl. They had more first downs than Boise had rushing yards for crying out loud. How do you outgain a team by 225+ yards, outrush them 250-23 and only win the game by 1? I', still trying to figure that out myself. As for BYU, they played like complete dogshit, effed up just about every play they ran, didn't cover a soul the entire game, yet still had to absolutely shit the bed in the last 5 minutes to blow the cover. If BYU showed up and played with any resolve at all, they win the game by DD. Oh well, what can you do? Besides scream obscenities at the TV for a two hour span, that is.

4.Wisconsin +6 v Florida St: Frankly, I see no discernible advantage for either team in this game. Generally Florida St would have a distinct speed advantage over any Wisconsin squad, but this isn't necessarily a fast Florida St team. They rely more on size and position in the passing game, and less on speed, so Wisconsin matches up pretty well with them. Both teams run it well and stop the run ok, and struggle throwing the ball, though I think Christian Ponder is a little more turnover prone than Scherer is for the Badgers. Also, I would be surprised if FSU has faced an offensive line as good as Wisconsin's with the exception of Florida, who ran roughshod over the Noles in a deluge. If Florida St struggles to stop the run(and Clay could be primed for a big day), I can rather easily see an outright win for Wisconsin, since FSU is certainly not explosive on offense, and Wisconsin is no pushover on D. The spread has moved to 6, and 70% of the public is on FSU. There isn't a lot of logic behind that in my opinion. Florida St could win by 7 or more, but I think an outright by the Badgers is just about as likely.

5. NC State +7 v Rutgers: Rutgers has definitely proved themselves as one of the most improved squads during the course of this year. A the beginning of the season, they looked like the Washington Generals..a running comedy of errors. As the season wore on, however, and I guess as they moved deeper into the Big East schedule, Mike Teel got his wits about him and started letting his explosive receiving corps make plays for him. As a result, they have won their last 5, and outgained their opponent in 3 of those 5 by 300+. Explosiveness in the passing game and a myriad of turnovers have led to this. However, at the end of the day, I think Mike Teel comes up short in the gumption department in games that mean something, and this bowl game against a legit opponent means something. Now, you might be thinking, "Legit opponent? NC State? 6-6 NC State? Yes. They are 6-6, it's true, but with Russell Wilson under center, they are 5-3 and a perfect 8-0 against the spread. Keep in mind that NC State was a dog in every one of their lined games this season and went 6-6. Not bad when you put it in that context. Also, if you are going to give me a TD with a team coached by Tom O"Brien with a solid running game and a QB with a 16/1 ratio, I am a taker, especially if that team is getting a TD from a 7-5 team out of the Big East. Strong public fade as well, I like this one.

6. Louisiana Tech pk v Northern Illinois: Listen, neither of these teams are worth a crap, both play in conferences with questionable teams at best, NIU squeaked out a 6-6 record, La Tech a 7-5 record. However, I think there are enough positives as this matchup takes shape to put me solidly in La Tech's side here. Early in the season, La Tech was downright putrid on offense, especially in the passing game, because they had a QB (Taylor Bennett) who literally could not throw a spiral off the broad side of a barn. Once they made the move to Ross Jenkins, they at least went from utterly helpless to somewhat competent. At the same time, they started running the ball better. Their MO is run the ball and stop the run. and it's a good thing for them too, because they cannot stop the pass to save their lives. Luckily for them, NIU can't really throw it, so it's a favorable matchup for them. NIU has had some success on offense, but only against teams ranked in the bottom 25-30 in total defense. When they played anyone with a pulse on defense, they struggled mightily. In order to win this game, NIU is going to have to throw it and throw it often. That is not their comfort zone. La Tech is ranked 11th against the run, and has a shut down performance of Nevada on their resume. Keep in mind that Nevada is the top rushing attack in the country. Louisiana Tech has a better running game than Northern, they stop the run better than NIU and the game is in their backyard. They definitely look like the value side in this one.

Others: I lean to North Carolina (+2) in the opener on Saturday in Charlotte over West Virginia. North Carolina is fast enough on defense to stick with Pat White, and there are rumors that Noel Devine's ovaries hurt, so he might not play. Major coaching advantage for UNC as well in this one, and TJ Yates is back healthy on offense, so we'll likely see an improvement in their passing game.....The Miami/Cal line is going up, having reached 10. It might get higher. I originally liked Cal at around a TD because of the major advantage they'll have running he ball on Miami, but if this line keeps going up, a Jacory Harris led attack for Miami is much better than a Robert Marve led attack. Hard to back Miami, though when they've given up 691 yards on the ground in their past 2 games and are now facing the #8 per carry rushing attack in the country. If it sticks at 10 or maybe goes down, I'll probably pull the trigger on the favorite.....Northwesterm/Mizzou(-12 1/2) is a tough one. Mizzou is so bad on defense that they are hard to back at DD, but Northwestern's offense is severely overrated, and they will struggle to stop Mizzou's attack unless there is some kind of common knowledge being shared with the square jawed Pat Fitzgerald. (The NW coach, not the guy prosecuting our bag of shit Governor Blago). If there's some sort of method to getting pressure on Chase Daniel that NW can follow, I would like them, but I fear for them. I really do. I'll probably be taking the points though....I mean NW is 9-3 aren't they? That's it for now. More to come probably Monday night.