Ok, so our attempted march back to mediocrity picked up some steam last week with a mark of 8-4. It apears as though it's a case of too little too late, since we are shockingly only 2 weeks away from the end of the regular season. Season total is now 67-74. I'll pretty much have to spontaneously ignite over the last 2 weeks to have a shot at .500 for the year, but what the hell, we'll give it a whirl. Don't have time to correct the typos, so I apologize in advance.
Although the season has seemed somewhat lacking in terms of excitement and compelling games this year, last week was a good one. I'd venture to say that the Oregon/Arizona game was one of the best I've watched in awhile, almost certainly the best one this year. Although I've never really been much of an Oregon Duck fan(uniforms, obviously) I found myself rooting for them last week. Going into their game with Arizona, both the Wildcats and the Ducks controlled their own destiny. If either won out, they would represent the Pac-10 in the Rose Bowl against Ohio St. Oregon St was in the mix, but needed a loss from Arizona to be able to control their destiny. An Oregon win meant the bid comes down to next Thursday's Civil War game between Oregon and Oregon St in Eugene. An Arizona win all but sewed up a Rose Bowl birth for Arizona...their first ever. I have to admit, I'm glad they lost. Now we get to see a Civil War on national TV for all the marbles, and frankly. Arizona already lost convincingly to Iowa, so seeeing them in the Rose Bowl against Ohio St wouldn't conjure up any excitement for me. Best case scenario happened there.
Also, In the SEC, Ole Miss survived a late comeback from LSU to win by 2. I could whine about that being a tough luck loss for the musings, since LSU got embarassingly outgained in the game and needed a lucky coverage breakdown from Ole Miss to come under the number, but that wasn't the real story in this game..The biggest, and most wonderful story was that Les Miles provided us with some hijinks and overall spastic behavior, both during and after the game. It's too long of a story to recount, but let's just say his end of game management was subpar. All of a sudden there is a statewide call to arms in Louisiana among all LSU fans, and Les Miles is in the crosshairs. What's this?? People are claiming that Less Miles is somewhat lacking in his coaching acumen? They've figured that out, have they? I can't imagine. It appears that my dream of seeing ol Less running the Michigan program into the ground is becoming less and less likely with each passing game. Too bad he sucks so bad. To add insult to injury, not only did he completely blow that game for his team, but he threw his young quaterback under the bus in the process. On the bright side, though, he gave us several new examples of his copyrighted mush-mouthed, logic deficient, incoherent babble in the process. For more on this whole episode, see http://collegefootballmadcapper.blogspot.com/
One other thing....can we conjure up some kind regards for Pat Fitzgerald at Northwestern? He's sewn up his second consecutive 8 win season, despite the fact that he had to replace all but 3 starters on his offensive team, and that he is doing it at Northwestern. God only knows where he is geting these kids from to come there, but they play smart, which is not surprising given the size of their brains. Compare Northwestern's roster with Illinois. Now switch the coaches. Fitzgerald would almost certainly have not missed out on two bowls in a row. How many wins do you think Zook would have with this Northwestern group? I'd peg it at somewhere between negative one and 1. Rhymes with Beer-o. On to this week......there's one on Thanksgiving night, but I'm laying off because nobody can accurately predict whether A&M will play like a legitimate team or a Brownie pack. The line sits at 21. If it dips under 21, I might throw a couple bucks on Texas, but I'll probably sit it out. Lots of games Friday. Don't forget.
1, @Colorado +11 v Nebraska: I'd buy it to 11 if necessary. This game always seems to favor the dog, and I think this year will be no exception. Buffs coach Dan Hawkins is probably on his way out, so his kids would like nothing better than to knock off Nebraska in this game. Cu fans are somewhat indifferent to the program right now, but they'll get lathered up for Nebraska. Despite their terrible stats, Colorado has looked better in person than they have on paper this year. They hung well with Texas for a good portion of that game, and they had Okie St beat on the road last week as well. They've beaten teams like Kansas and A&M at home. Nebraska has had a good year, but they are prone to terrible stretches on offense and they've already sewn up the Big 12 North, so this could be a ho hum game for them. They aren't good enough to get by with a B or C game performance. I think Colorado has a great shot at catching them in this one and possibly pulling off the win.
2. Alabama -10 @Auburn: I originally took a look at this line and decided I wanted no part of it. That was when it opened at 12. Since the line dropped I took a closer look at this one and feel that Bama is a solid play, and in my opinion, only because the game is at Auburn, which makes the line manageable. Auburn built their reputation this year at the beginning of the year, when Gus Malzahn's offense was churning out yards and they were burying people with asolid rushing attack, led by a thunder and lightning type combo in Ben Tate and Ontario McCalebb. McCalebb is now banged up, so it's the Ben Tate show going forward. Their passing game has never been good, mostly because Chris Todd is very limited and makes bad decisions. He was sheltered by the running game and the early schedule, as they either played bad opponents, or good ones in tough situations(WV getting their QB hurt and giving them 5 turnovers). The truth is that Alabama will not allow them to run. It simply won't happen, because nobody runs on Alabama, and Ben tate ran his mouth off this week, saying he's better than Mark Ingram. If Chris Todd tries to throw the ball downfield with any regularity, the pick 6 over/under will be set at 1.5. On the flipside, Auburn's defense has been getting gashed, as their depth has been depleted completely. they've never been good against the run, but now they are really struggling to stop anyone. Even Mississippi St and georgia were running all over them in recent weeks, and Kentucky did it at Auburn back when they were healthy. bama will run all over these guys. I'd venture to say that this is the best matchuo for Bama's offense all year. The betting public is looking at Auburn's results from earlier this year and their results over the past 7 years against Bama and is liking the points. I think it's a mistake. Bama rolls 34-13.
3. @West Virginia pk v Pittsburgh: Pitt is an interesting team. It's very true that they have been pretty much flawless all year, and truly they have been one of the most balanced teams in the country. Look at the stats: They're ranked highly in just about every category. Offensively, they run the ball well, and Bill Stull has had a great season completely out of nowhere. They're ranked in the top 20 nationally in almost every offensive category. In addition to that, their defense has been stout. Against the run, they've been very good, against the pass, not so much, but not bad. Most shockingly, they have not yet been hurt by Wanny's clockwork ability to coach them into a loss. This is the basis for my feeling here. How awesome would it be for Pitt to win this game against their top rival to set up a battle royale next week against Cincinatti in which Pitt has a 10-1 record? That would be cool, indded, but I read a quote by Wanny that would make my blood run cold if I was a Pitt fan. It went something like this: "This is a big rivalry game for us, but whether we win 40-0 or they win 40-0 we're still playing for all the marbles next week against Cincinnati." Vintage Wanny. Keep in mind that WV would like nothing better than to put a damper on Pitt's season, and remember that this team is pretty damn good itself and is coming off a bye to get Noel Devine healthy. Pitt has struggled some against the pass, WV has been pretty stout themselves on defense, and the motivational edge will certainly be with the home team. I foresee some flaming couches and delighted hillbillies come late friday night.
4. @Oklahoma -8 v Oklahoma St: I realize that Oklahoma is completely banged up and is looking at a 6-5 record, but I still see very little chance that Okie St comes into Norman and competes. Oklahoma is coming off an embarrassing loss to Texas Tech on the road last week , and will be plenty motivated to take it to Oklahoma St to keep them from an at large bid in the BCS, which they will certainly wrap up if they win this game. In order for Oklahoma St to be able to hang with any Oklahoma team in Norman, they need to be at full strength, and they clearly are not. They had the tough break loss of Dez Bryant due to his stupidity, they lost starting tailback Kendall Hunter, and now Zac Robinson is banged up and questionable for this game, though one would assume he'll play. Oklahoma will be 6-6 if they don't take care of business here...they still have great weapons on offense and a good defense, despite what happened last week. I think we see an outfit similar to the one that shat on Texas A&M two weeks ago rather than the one who flailed around aimlessly in Lubbock.
5. @Duke +5 v Wake Forest: I am totally missing why a 4-7 Wake team is a 5 point favorite on the road in this one. I like the Deacons as much as the next guy and I've always been a fan of Riley Skinner, but they are still a terrible favorite. Duke is solid, people. They struggle against elite defenses, but Wake has proven to be anything but that, having just surrendered an avalanche of points and yards to a Florida St team starting a true freshman in his first ever college game at home. Thad Lewis will be able to do what he likes to do, and Duke's defense is not chopped liver. i would have made Duke about a FG favorite in this one. It'll probably be close, but there's all kinds of value in Duke +5, or 4 1/2 or whatever you end up getting better than a FG.
6. Missouri -3 v Kansas @KC: Missouri has quietly been having a nice little run over the past few weeks, while Kansas loudly been crashing and burning. The whole Mark Mangino is a psychpathic fat tub of cruel and inappropriate lard thing has obviously affected the team negatively. Missouri is racking up yards and has a couple very nice defensive efforts sprinkled in there as well. They handled both Colorado and Kansas St easilt on the road in recent weeks, and if you throw out their fluke loss at home to Baylor, they'd be 8-3 and looking at a very lucrative bowl. At this point, Kansas's offense is a shell of it's former self. I just can't see the Jayhawks rising up in this spot and knocking off Missouri with the positive momentum Missori has. I would have expected this spread to be closer to a TD, if not more. Stranger things have happened, but both of these teams will have to do an absolute 180 degree about face for KU to win this.
7. Arkansas +4 @LSU: You might want to wait on this one too, since I think people will be looking at this one and pounding LSU. Although Miles and company have pulled several Houdini acts over the years, and stay i games they shouldn't, etc, I like the Hogs here. There is all kinds of gnashing of teeth going on on the Bayou due to Miles's puking all over himself in their game last week, and people are starting to see what some others have seen for about 5 years. The guy can't coach, and when he's not surrounded by smart assistants, he gets exposed. This week he's going to match wits with Bobby Petrino, so he's going to be at a disadvantage there. LSU has been outgained by their opponents for the year, and Arkansas has outgained theirs by an average of 50 per game, despite having roadies with Florida, Bama and Ole Miss on their schedule. LSU previously lost their top player, RB Charles Scott for the year to injury, and now their 2nd RB Kieland Williams is also gone for the year. They'll have thir 3rd stringer in there, so it's likely Jordan Jefferson will have to carry the mail. Not a good scenario for LSU. If their defense does not play extremely well, they're going to lose. This has the potential to be a real shitstorm for Miles, as the natives are getting restless. He better not fall behind early.
8. Tennessee -2 1/2(buy it if you have to) @Kentucky: I was very glad to see Kentucky knock off Georgia last week, since it was a musing, but these are the games that the Wildcats just have not been able to win. Well, any game against Tennessee would fall into that category, since they haven't beaten UT since 1984, but they've had other games in which they could follow up a nice win with another one, and they've failed almost every time. While they beat georgia, they were woefully outgained in the game, and now they play a better team in UT who needs this win to get a Jan 1 bowl game. UK gained only 250 yards on Georgia...a far cry from the D they'll be facing this week. also, UT's offense has been improving all year. Coming off the win at Georgia, I just think this is a bad matchup for the 'Cats. UT keeps the whammy on UK for another year.
9. @Georgia Tech -7 v Georgia: A Willie Martinez coiached Georgia defense has absolutely no shot at stopping Tech as they hit on all cylinders, and they appear to be doing just that based on their past few games. There's always a lot of danger in backing Tech as a favorite against an SEC team(see their bowl game last year), but this is a good matchup for them. Paul Johnson has commented several times that this is the biggest game on their schedule, so there will be no look ahead to the ACC title game. Offensively, without AJ Green, Georgia doesn't have the type of offense to take advantage of Tech's weaknesss, and actually, they're ability to pressure the passer might actually be a bad matchup for Georgia. Maybe Georgia can fire themselves up with purple helmets and pink shoelaces or something.
10. Navy -9 1/2 @Hawaii: Most of the time, when you see a team making a late season trek to the island, you worry about the whole situation for the road team, travel, a vacation atmosphere, etc. I don't think there's much to worry about with Navy in that regard, and there's such a Naval presence in Hawaii that you could even make a case that they might have a bit of a cheering section there. Hawaii is simply not a good football team, especially when their starting QB is hurt. They only eked out an OT win over a putrid San Jose St team last week, scoring only 10 points in regulation with the backup. Started Bryant Moniz is going to play, but he is one hard tackle to his ribs away from being out. Ricky Dobbs is going to run wild on this team. If Hawaii can't put up at least 24 points, they dont have a shot. Don't forget that Coach Ken Niatomolualololoatulo is from Hawaii too, so his team will be fired up for him.
Others: Memphis has given up, so Tulsa should have no problem taking it to them at home (-17)....Not a big fan of the coaching matchup, but I think the Illini might have a shot at keeping this one close with Cincy, getting so many points(20 1/2). Cincy has a look ahead here, and Illinois has the potential to rise up now and again.....Now that Darel Scott is back at RB for Maryland, their offense becomes somewhat legit. BC has ben a disaster on the road, so I don't think they should be laying almost a TD, even though Maryland is no prize to bet on.....Also leaning toward NC State as usual. UNC stinks on offense, and they can't possibly get 6 more TOs on the road again can they???NC St is getting 5 1/2.....That's about it. I might have some additional thoughts later, but I think this will be the card. Happy Thanksgiving.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Les Miles: I'll just let you read.
Our buddy Les Miles has broken new ground. After openly wondering for almost 5 years how such a complete, clinical idiot could possibly land and keep a job at one of the top programs in the country, it appears as though he has finally been totally exposed. It also appears that my dream of seeing Miles end up at Michigan is probably over, as no BCS conference team(except maybe Illinois) would ever consider hiring a coach exposed as such a buffoon.
Here's the NO Times Picayune Story excerpt regarding the coaching debacle at the end of the LSU/OLE Miss game, which LSU had no business being anywhere close in anyway. We pick it up after a long pass had LSU at the Ole Miss 32 with less than a minute left and 2 timeouts. 1st down.
Miles said a run was "suggested, " and Jefferson said he thought the team would run the ball as it was already in Jasper's range. But offensive coordinator Gary Crowton called for a pass. It fell incomplete
On second down, LSU again went to the pass, and this time defensive end Emmanuel Stephens came off the left edge and smashed into Jefferson from behind. The sack cost LSU 9 yards and forced it to use its second timeout
"We talked about a run, but we didn't want to turn it over, " Miles said. "Down a runner, we felt like the quarterback could manage the situation, and that was my mistake."
Ok, so running the ball carries a larger threat of a turnover or negative play than a pass. Stop talking. Just go into the fetal position.
Also, not only are you a moron, Les, but you're a dickhead asshole as well. Whos is this guy, Mike Davis, the former Indiana basketball failure? This is a man so desperate to justify himself that he is more than willing to throw his players under the bus at a moment's notice. You're the one who allowed a pass play to be called. Should he have avoided the sack? Yes, but don't shift the blame to your quarterback when you have made the mother of all clock management blunders.
On third down LSU passed again, this time a screen to Ridley designed to pick up some of the lost yardage and get out of bounds. It unfolded in disastrous fashion, as Ridley stumbled while dodging a tackler in the flat. He lost 7 yards and did not get out of bounds. He went down with 26 seconds remaining.
And then the clock ticked. It wound down steadily, as LSU players on the field and coaches on the sideline milled about chaotically. Finally with nine seconds left, Miles called timeout, and the officials announced it would be a 30-second timeout.
"We're calling a timeout to save as much clock time as we can, but then we're late relaying it to the field, " he said. "Again, I take that to myself."
Miles later offered a fuller explanation of the lapse saying he heard "timeout" being called.
"The timeouts were being called verbally, I didn't relay it to the official apparently, and that was the mistake, " he said. "We didn't know that the timeout had not been called. So then we come down to nine seconds and the opportunity to get a first down and make a play thereafter, it was a very long position to be in, so we decided to go for the Hail Mary."
OK Les. Which is it? Were you "late" relaying the timeout to the field, or did you utter the words "timeout" at some point and just assume that a referee heard you, let that be the end of it, and then ignore what everyone else in the country could see as precious seconds ticked off the clock? Both are horrifically inexcusable, but we're all wondering, because you said two contradictory things within 30 seconds of each other.
I'm not going to even get into the last play, when he claimed he didn't know who told Jordan Jefferson to spike the ball even though replay clearly showed him maniacally motioning for Jefferson to clock the ball on the sidelines.
This incident should permanently cement this bonehead as the biggest idiot roaming the sidelines in college football today
Here's the NO Times Picayune Story excerpt regarding the coaching debacle at the end of the LSU/OLE Miss game, which LSU had no business being anywhere close in anyway. We pick it up after a long pass had LSU at the Ole Miss 32 with less than a minute left and 2 timeouts. 1st down.
Miles said a run was "suggested, " and Jefferson said he thought the team would run the ball as it was already in Jasper's range. But offensive coordinator Gary Crowton called for a pass. It fell incomplete
On second down, LSU again went to the pass, and this time defensive end Emmanuel Stephens came off the left edge and smashed into Jefferson from behind. The sack cost LSU 9 yards and forced it to use its second timeout
"We talked about a run, but we didn't want to turn it over, " Miles said. "Down a runner, we felt like the quarterback could manage the situation, and that was my mistake."
Ok, so running the ball carries a larger threat of a turnover or negative play than a pass. Stop talking. Just go into the fetal position.
Also, not only are you a moron, Les, but you're a dickhead asshole as well. Whos is this guy, Mike Davis, the former Indiana basketball failure? This is a man so desperate to justify himself that he is more than willing to throw his players under the bus at a moment's notice. You're the one who allowed a pass play to be called. Should he have avoided the sack? Yes, but don't shift the blame to your quarterback when you have made the mother of all clock management blunders.
On third down LSU passed again, this time a screen to Ridley designed to pick up some of the lost yardage and get out of bounds. It unfolded in disastrous fashion, as Ridley stumbled while dodging a tackler in the flat. He lost 7 yards and did not get out of bounds. He went down with 26 seconds remaining.
And then the clock ticked. It wound down steadily, as LSU players on the field and coaches on the sideline milled about chaotically. Finally with nine seconds left, Miles called timeout, and the officials announced it would be a 30-second timeout.
"We're calling a timeout to save as much clock time as we can, but then we're late relaying it to the field, " he said. "Again, I take that to myself."
Miles later offered a fuller explanation of the lapse saying he heard "timeout" being called.
"The timeouts were being called verbally, I didn't relay it to the official apparently, and that was the mistake, " he said. "We didn't know that the timeout had not been called. So then we come down to nine seconds and the opportunity to get a first down and make a play thereafter, it was a very long position to be in, so we decided to go for the Hail Mary."
OK Les. Which is it? Were you "late" relaying the timeout to the field, or did you utter the words "timeout" at some point and just assume that a referee heard you, let that be the end of it, and then ignore what everyone else in the country could see as precious seconds ticked off the clock? Both are horrifically inexcusable, but we're all wondering, because you said two contradictory things within 30 seconds of each other.
I'm not going to even get into the last play, when he claimed he didn't know who told Jordan Jefferson to spike the ball even though replay clearly showed him maniacally motioning for Jefferson to clock the ball on the sidelines.
This incident should permanently cement this bonehead as the biggest idiot roaming the sidelines in college football today
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Another Week 12 Musing
Line move has necessitated this play, and frankly, I forgot to mention it when I was falling asleep as I was writing the musings last night....
12. Purdue -2 1/2 @Indiana: Might have to hurry on this one. Basically, neither of these teams have anything to play for other than their pride, since both are eliminated from bowl contention. However, I think Purdue is a much better team, and has to have more confidence that they can come in and make a statement locally that they are the team that Indianapolis should be following, and not the Hoosiers. they're the ones that have the first year coach, and they certainly have a talent advantage. most of Purdue's problems this year were in cases where they coughed up games to teams that were good enough to accept the gifts, i.e. Northwestern, Michigan State and Minnesota(as long as they were at home). Iu, is not a team like that, and actually rivals Purdue's ability to shit the bed in tough spots. I won't remind anyone of any examples. Purdue will have the better Qb, the better scheme, the better running game, the better defense, and the best player on the field in DL Ryan Kerrigan, who happens to be a local kid. Now that it's under a FG, I think Purdue gets the job done here.
12. Purdue -2 1/2 @Indiana: Might have to hurry on this one. Basically, neither of these teams have anything to play for other than their pride, since both are eliminated from bowl contention. However, I think Purdue is a much better team, and has to have more confidence that they can come in and make a statement locally that they are the team that Indianapolis should be following, and not the Hoosiers. they're the ones that have the first year coach, and they certainly have a talent advantage. most of Purdue's problems this year were in cases where they coughed up games to teams that were good enough to accept the gifts, i.e. Northwestern, Michigan State and Minnesota(as long as they were at home). Iu, is not a team like that, and actually rivals Purdue's ability to shit the bed in tough spots. I won't remind anyone of any examples. Purdue will have the better Qb, the better scheme, the better running game, the better defense, and the best player on the field in DL Ryan Kerrigan, who happens to be a local kid. Now that it's under a FG, I think Purdue gets the job done here.
Week 12 Musings
Numbered musings went 5-5-1 ;ast week, with a couple brutal losses in there. One was Purdue, who completed 39 passes to Michigan St's 11, also gained more rushing yards, but still found a way to avoid covering, even when they were getting three points at home. Oh yeah, they were up by 11 points with 8 minutes left in the game too. We also lost on Arizona. I won't get into the misfortune with that game, but go ahead and checlk the play by play of the last 3 minutes of that one for shits and giggles.
The chances of gettting back to .500 are getting to be downright impossible due to my horrific stretch in the middle of the season. It will most likely go down as the first sub .500 season sinc I started sending out this dreck 6 years ago.
I'm sure if you guys noticed, but USC took another one in the cornhole this week, this time courtesy of Jim Harbaugh and Stanford. If I had to pick one non-Illinois game per year in which I got to decide the winner amd margin, I'd probably say that I'd want Stanford to blast the shit out of USC. So that was great. Also, DickRod took another crobar blow to the skull, which is always welcome as far as I'm concerned. It was actually a pretty solid week for rooting purposes...... If you look back a couple years, you'll remember my significant disdain for for our favorite whale impersonator Charlie Weis. I've actually somewhat returned to the times of my youth over the past 12 months or so in that I've found myself rooting for Notre Dame again, but I have to renew my criticism of this fatass bastard. Since he lost at Pitt last week, the media storm has increased around him, with even more people than usual calling for his head. At this point, I have to jump in with two feet and hoarsely scream my agreement that the guy needs a one way ticket to Out of My Faceville. When you coach a team, the key to leeping your job is winning, obviously. In order to win, you have to coach your team to play to it's potential, and comstantly bring in better players so that potential rises to a championship level. There is no doubt that Notre Dame's great strength lies with it's offense, and specifically it's passing game. So the assumption would be that if Notre Dame executes it's offense well, then they should win a heck of a lot more than they lose, since he's brought in top 10 recruiting classes pretty much every year he's been there. But let's take a look at the Navy game. You would assume that if Notre Dame did what it does well in the Navy game, at home, then they would win the game going away, correct? Well, Jimmy Claussen passed for 457 yards, Golden tate caught 9 balls for 132 yards, and Michael Floyd caught 10 balls for 141 yards. They scored 21 points and lost. Last week against Pitt, both Tate and Floyd again caught balls for well over 100 yards, and this time, they were getting beaten handily until a late punt return briefly got them into shouting range. If you are executing extremely well the things you do best and playing up to your full potential, yet are still losing to Navy at home, there's something wrong with the overall scheme, and it's time for the coach to go. Get Brian Kelly in there and be done with it. By the way, is there a better possible coaching name out there currently for Notre Dame than Brian Kelly? I think not.
Interestingly, Mark Mangino, the 500 pound vomit inducing pile of lard currently coaching at Kansas is also under fire, and it appears that he might be gone as well due to some boderline psychopathic behavior toward his players. If that ends up happening, that would mean that the triumverate of fat coaches that I had so much fun poking fun at the past couple years(Tom Amstutz at Toledo, Mangino and Weis) will all be gone. Maybe Romeo Crennel will get a college gig.
As for this week, I have to admit, I see the lines as being pretty tight. It's really hard to see anything that really jumps out at me, especially from a dog perspective. I also have to apologize that I'll only be able to get a couple of the pays out this morning. I've had all kinds of issues that have come up this week, so it's throwm me off my normal capping schedule. There will be more plays to come(for your fading delights) but I'll only be able to get a couple out at this point.
1. @Iowa -10 v Minnesota: We all know that I've been going against Iowa when they have been significant favorites this year, but I think there's some value with them this week. Minnesota has had a decent year, and they'll be bowl eligible, but they've been lucky in a lot of games this year, mostly at home. In their road games, when they've played teams with good defenses, they've gotten blown out. That might seem a bit harsh, since the teams that have blown them out are Penn State and Ohio State, but I think you can safely place Iowa as being pretty comparable to those teams in terms of defense and probably overall. Minnesota was shut out by Penn State and scored only a late garbage TD at Ohio St, so the chances that they'll be overly successful againt Iowa are pretty remote. In addition, Iowa has shown signs of being somewhat capapble at home, and now that the backup QB has established himself with a good performance at Ohio St, I think he'll be comfortable enough to do at least as well as Stanzi going forward, maybe better. Iowa has covered 8 out of the last ten against Minnesota, including a 55-0 shellacking at Minny last year with very similar teams for both to this year. There's enough of a regional rivalry here that Iowa will be motivated to lay the wood to the Gophers, and in my opinion, lay the wood to the Goofers they will.
2. @Texas A&M -5 v Baylor: I really hate to back a team that has been completely destroyed in so many games recently(Is there a team that loses as embarassingly as A&M does on a consistent basis?), but I think they find themselves in a good spot here. Baylor gained some momentum due to their win at Missouri, which looks at this point to be a total fluke, They haven't really competed in any other Big 12 game...and even Iowa State put up almost 500 yards of offense on them several weeks ago. On the other hand, when they aren't being terrorized by the bullies of college football, A&M has shown the ability to hand out a swirly or two themselves, as their wins at home over Iowa State (35-10) and a likely bowl team in UAB(56-17) would indicate. Despite their cowardly play last week and in other road games this year, they do have a pretty good offense, and they need this win to be bowl eligible this year. They also are trying to keep in front of Baylor to avoid falling into the basement in the Big 12 South. Texas A&M is a much better home tam than road team...I think they'll take care of business here. If I was betting Baylor here, I would need at least double digits to consider it, and probably 13 to be comfortable, so there's some value here for A&M in my opinion.
3. Ohio St -12 @Michigan: I really hate to lay this much wood in this series, especially with a road favorite, but when you look at the numbers, and the performances of these teams, there really isn't any other way to go with this game. The most overrated player in the college game right now, and maybe one of the most overrated of the past several years, is Tate Forcier. This kid was the new football Jesus during the non-conference earlier this year, mostly due to a couple shifty moves he put on Notre Dame's 8th grade level defense. Since he's started pre-conference play, he's led his team to one win, which was a controversial one over Indiana, and has lost 9 fumbles in the 6 games since. Now he faces what is probably the best defense in the Big Ten in a game in which they'll be fired up. Now, I realize there is some danger in laying 12 here, since Michigan will probably be playing for their lives and might get off to a good start, but Ohio State's offense has been steadily improving, and Michigan's defense has been putrid all year. Once the game gets settled down, I don't see how Michigan is going to move the ball on Ohio St, and I don't see how their going to be able to stop the Buckeyes either. To me, this looks like a carbon copy of the Penn State game, and that one ended up 35-10. Once the boulder starts rolling downhill, it could turn into a bad scene with the wine and cheese crowd at the Big House heading for the exits.
4. UCONN +6 @Notre Dame: Try as they might, this Notre Dame team simply refuses to play at a level that will allow them to blow out anyone this side of Washington St. UCONN's offense is certainly good enough in both phases to give the Irish problems, and we've seen ND struggle in games like this ad nauseum during the Weis eera. There's really no reason to expect otherwise here. I can see this game going either way, and with the negative mommentum surrounding the program right now, a loss would seem to me to be about a 55-60% proposition. I'd almost venture to say that the only way ND covers this is if they get the ball first in OT, score a TD and force a fumble on UCONN's possession.
5. Tulane + 22 1/2 @UCF: I generally avoid c-USA games, and almost, but I've found myself betting on Tulane every now and again. I can't really explain why that is. This year, i hadn't seen any reason to back the Green wave, because of how bad they've been. but there is a ton of value in this line. First of all, UCF is coming off a great win over Houston. Now they come back the next week to play a 3-7 Tulane team. The public was absolutely murdered last week by UCF, as 80% of the public couldn't believe their good fortune to only be laying 3.5 points with Case Keenum and the Cougs. UCF showed up and won. Now they are in hillariously unchartered territory for them as a 20+ point favorite. Although they are better offensively than in previous years, they are still inept enough to never warrant huge numbers like this. Tulane on the other hand, has looked much better on offense lately with a QB switch to Ryan Griffin, who has been better able to get the ball to playmaking WR Jeremy Williams. who is actually a better offensive player than anyone UCF has. Sterotype alert: UCF coach George O'Leary will undoubtedly be guarding against his team having a hangover from the Houston game, but guess what......with a name like O'Leary, he'll probably have to use some proactive methods to sober up himself after some Friday night boilermakers.
6 Penn St -3 @ Michigan St: MSU could really use this game to improve their bowl situation, but this game is vital to Penn St if they want to stay in consideration for a BCS game. State shouldn't even be in the position they are, since they deserved to lose last week in West lafayette to a Purdue team that gift wrapped a win for them. I have not been, and will not ever be impressed with this Michigan St team this year. They absolutely cannot cover, and they can't run for a decent per carry average. Now they match up against a motivated team that is coached well enough to exploit their lack of cover skills and has a good enough defense to force them into mistakes. If MSU steps up and wins this game, it will be contrary to everything else they've done this year. Consider this: MSU has surrendered a 24/5 TD/INT ratio this year. Ouch. Look for Darryl Clark to exploit that.
7. @Ole Miss -4 1/2 v LSU: here's a little known fact. LSU has been outgained by their opponents this year, averaging only 310 yards per game, while giving up 312. The team is banged up, as Jordon jefferson didn't play last week. In addition, Charles Scott and a couple lineman have been deemed out for the year due to injury. Despite all this, LSU stands at 8-2. This simply is not an 8-2 ballclub, and it's just a mattter of time until they come crashing down to earth. Ole Miss, on the other hand has hammered Tennessee and Arkansas in it's last two home games, and is certainly looking to add more salt to Les Miles's wounds after clubbing the Tigers in Baton Rouge last year. The rebs appear to be hitting their stride, and LSU is overdue for a clunker performance.
8. @BYU -10 v Air Force: I originally looked at this game as a possibility to back Air Force, but the more I look at it, BYU looks like the correct play. First, let me me say that I am stunned at how well AirForce's defense has played this year. However, they have not faced anything remotely close to BYU's firepower on offense. Also, they have been severely lacking, despite their good record, in the running game. Very mediocre defenses have held Air Forice in check, and BYU has had success with it also. If Air Force wants to cover this, they'll have to score in the 20's and I am not sure they are capable of doing so.
9. Kentucky +9 1/2 @Georgia: I really wish this game was at 12:30 PM or something, but no such luck..it's the ESPN2 night game. That's not ideal, but I still think Kentucky is the value side here. Georgia, already somewhat limited offensively, will be without AJ Green, so Joe Cox won't have his top wideout to make use of this week. Kentucky is also offensively challenged, but they are better than Georgia on defense, and they probably will have less pressure exerted on them by Georgia's defense. They are shifty enough to put some points o the board, and are stingy enough on defense to keep the score close. Kentucky has played well against Georgia in recent years. Too many points here to lay with a mediocre offense.
10. NC State +21 @Virginia Tech: VT has administered some hellacious beatings on some poeple this year, but I don't think NC State will fall victim to that. Defensively, NC State is a sieve, but their offensive work has been good. VT doesnt have much to play for, so they might be sleepwalking. If they lose this by more than 21, it will be a clear indication that Tom O'Brien has some issues with quitters in his program. My guess is that they step up and play well enough to be able to hang within this large pread.
11.Nevada -30@ New Mexico St: Nevada has been running through the WAC like Sherman ran through Atlanta. It hasn't been pretty, as San Jose St can attest,having been beaten like a rented ox because we can't see our screens well enough. Now they fce yet another WAC weakling in NMSU, who almost certainly is the worst offense in the country. I can't see much offnsive output from the Aggies here, but I do believe that Nevada will continue to lay waste to these WAC defenses and this one will be no different. They're leading the nation in run offense and it isn't even close. I can see another 54-10 game here.
Others: I have a lean to Duke, as I think they can exploit Miami's banged up secondary and they are getting a boatload of points (+18.5). If they can force 3 or 4 punts, they've got a great chance....Have a hunch that Texas Tech(+6.5) either beats Oklahoma, or it comes down to the wire. TT's defense, believe it or not has the ability to stop some people, and the offense is alwayus capable.....San Diego St is catching 20 at Utah in a tough sandwich spot for Utah between TCU and with BYU on deck. The Aztecs are massively improved on both sides of the ball, and Utah has struggled with worse than these guys.....UCLA(-5) get to attempt revenge for what happened to them last year in Tempe against the Sun Devils. 4 defensive scores. It was a nightmare. In that game, ASU gained a grand total of 122 yards on 50 plays. I'd say UCLA's confidence is pretty high that they can dole out some payback to ASU. That's it for now..hopefully this is not incoherent babble.
The chances of gettting back to .500 are getting to be downright impossible due to my horrific stretch in the middle of the season. It will most likely go down as the first sub .500 season sinc I started sending out this dreck 6 years ago.
I'm sure if you guys noticed, but USC took another one in the cornhole this week, this time courtesy of Jim Harbaugh and Stanford. If I had to pick one non-Illinois game per year in which I got to decide the winner amd margin, I'd probably say that I'd want Stanford to blast the shit out of USC. So that was great. Also, DickRod took another crobar blow to the skull, which is always welcome as far as I'm concerned. It was actually a pretty solid week for rooting purposes...... If you look back a couple years, you'll remember my significant disdain for for our favorite whale impersonator Charlie Weis. I've actually somewhat returned to the times of my youth over the past 12 months or so in that I've found myself rooting for Notre Dame again, but I have to renew my criticism of this fatass bastard. Since he lost at Pitt last week, the media storm has increased around him, with even more people than usual calling for his head. At this point, I have to jump in with two feet and hoarsely scream my agreement that the guy needs a one way ticket to Out of My Faceville. When you coach a team, the key to leeping your job is winning, obviously. In order to win, you have to coach your team to play to it's potential, and comstantly bring in better players so that potential rises to a championship level. There is no doubt that Notre Dame's great strength lies with it's offense, and specifically it's passing game. So the assumption would be that if Notre Dame executes it's offense well, then they should win a heck of a lot more than they lose, since he's brought in top 10 recruiting classes pretty much every year he's been there. But let's take a look at the Navy game. You would assume that if Notre Dame did what it does well in the Navy game, at home, then they would win the game going away, correct? Well, Jimmy Claussen passed for 457 yards, Golden tate caught 9 balls for 132 yards, and Michael Floyd caught 10 balls for 141 yards. They scored 21 points and lost. Last week against Pitt, both Tate and Floyd again caught balls for well over 100 yards, and this time, they were getting beaten handily until a late punt return briefly got them into shouting range. If you are executing extremely well the things you do best and playing up to your full potential, yet are still losing to Navy at home, there's something wrong with the overall scheme, and it's time for the coach to go. Get Brian Kelly in there and be done with it. By the way, is there a better possible coaching name out there currently for Notre Dame than Brian Kelly? I think not.
Interestingly, Mark Mangino, the 500 pound vomit inducing pile of lard currently coaching at Kansas is also under fire, and it appears that he might be gone as well due to some boderline psychopathic behavior toward his players. If that ends up happening, that would mean that the triumverate of fat coaches that I had so much fun poking fun at the past couple years(Tom Amstutz at Toledo, Mangino and Weis) will all be gone. Maybe Romeo Crennel will get a college gig.
As for this week, I have to admit, I see the lines as being pretty tight. It's really hard to see anything that really jumps out at me, especially from a dog perspective. I also have to apologize that I'll only be able to get a couple of the pays out this morning. I've had all kinds of issues that have come up this week, so it's throwm me off my normal capping schedule. There will be more plays to come(for your fading delights) but I'll only be able to get a couple out at this point.
1. @Iowa -10 v Minnesota: We all know that I've been going against Iowa when they have been significant favorites this year, but I think there's some value with them this week. Minnesota has had a decent year, and they'll be bowl eligible, but they've been lucky in a lot of games this year, mostly at home. In their road games, when they've played teams with good defenses, they've gotten blown out. That might seem a bit harsh, since the teams that have blown them out are Penn State and Ohio State, but I think you can safely place Iowa as being pretty comparable to those teams in terms of defense and probably overall. Minnesota was shut out by Penn State and scored only a late garbage TD at Ohio St, so the chances that they'll be overly successful againt Iowa are pretty remote. In addition, Iowa has shown signs of being somewhat capapble at home, and now that the backup QB has established himself with a good performance at Ohio St, I think he'll be comfortable enough to do at least as well as Stanzi going forward, maybe better. Iowa has covered 8 out of the last ten against Minnesota, including a 55-0 shellacking at Minny last year with very similar teams for both to this year. There's enough of a regional rivalry here that Iowa will be motivated to lay the wood to the Gophers, and in my opinion, lay the wood to the Goofers they will.
2. @Texas A&M -5 v Baylor: I really hate to back a team that has been completely destroyed in so many games recently(Is there a team that loses as embarassingly as A&M does on a consistent basis?), but I think they find themselves in a good spot here. Baylor gained some momentum due to their win at Missouri, which looks at this point to be a total fluke, They haven't really competed in any other Big 12 game...and even Iowa State put up almost 500 yards of offense on them several weeks ago. On the other hand, when they aren't being terrorized by the bullies of college football, A&M has shown the ability to hand out a swirly or two themselves, as their wins at home over Iowa State (35-10) and a likely bowl team in UAB(56-17) would indicate. Despite their cowardly play last week and in other road games this year, they do have a pretty good offense, and they need this win to be bowl eligible this year. They also are trying to keep in front of Baylor to avoid falling into the basement in the Big 12 South. Texas A&M is a much better home tam than road team...I think they'll take care of business here. If I was betting Baylor here, I would need at least double digits to consider it, and probably 13 to be comfortable, so there's some value here for A&M in my opinion.
3. Ohio St -12 @Michigan: I really hate to lay this much wood in this series, especially with a road favorite, but when you look at the numbers, and the performances of these teams, there really isn't any other way to go with this game. The most overrated player in the college game right now, and maybe one of the most overrated of the past several years, is Tate Forcier. This kid was the new football Jesus during the non-conference earlier this year, mostly due to a couple shifty moves he put on Notre Dame's 8th grade level defense. Since he's started pre-conference play, he's led his team to one win, which was a controversial one over Indiana, and has lost 9 fumbles in the 6 games since. Now he faces what is probably the best defense in the Big Ten in a game in which they'll be fired up. Now, I realize there is some danger in laying 12 here, since Michigan will probably be playing for their lives and might get off to a good start, but Ohio State's offense has been steadily improving, and Michigan's defense has been putrid all year. Once the game gets settled down, I don't see how Michigan is going to move the ball on Ohio St, and I don't see how their going to be able to stop the Buckeyes either. To me, this looks like a carbon copy of the Penn State game, and that one ended up 35-10. Once the boulder starts rolling downhill, it could turn into a bad scene with the wine and cheese crowd at the Big House heading for the exits.
4. UCONN +6 @Notre Dame: Try as they might, this Notre Dame team simply refuses to play at a level that will allow them to blow out anyone this side of Washington St. UCONN's offense is certainly good enough in both phases to give the Irish problems, and we've seen ND struggle in games like this ad nauseum during the Weis eera. There's really no reason to expect otherwise here. I can see this game going either way, and with the negative mommentum surrounding the program right now, a loss would seem to me to be about a 55-60% proposition. I'd almost venture to say that the only way ND covers this is if they get the ball first in OT, score a TD and force a fumble on UCONN's possession.
5. Tulane + 22 1/2 @UCF: I generally avoid c-USA games, and almost, but I've found myself betting on Tulane every now and again. I can't really explain why that is. This year, i hadn't seen any reason to back the Green wave, because of how bad they've been. but there is a ton of value in this line. First of all, UCF is coming off a great win over Houston. Now they come back the next week to play a 3-7 Tulane team. The public was absolutely murdered last week by UCF, as 80% of the public couldn't believe their good fortune to only be laying 3.5 points with Case Keenum and the Cougs. UCF showed up and won. Now they are in hillariously unchartered territory for them as a 20+ point favorite. Although they are better offensively than in previous years, they are still inept enough to never warrant huge numbers like this. Tulane on the other hand, has looked much better on offense lately with a QB switch to Ryan Griffin, who has been better able to get the ball to playmaking WR Jeremy Williams. who is actually a better offensive player than anyone UCF has. Sterotype alert: UCF coach George O'Leary will undoubtedly be guarding against his team having a hangover from the Houston game, but guess what......with a name like O'Leary, he'll probably have to use some proactive methods to sober up himself after some Friday night boilermakers.
6 Penn St -3 @ Michigan St: MSU could really use this game to improve their bowl situation, but this game is vital to Penn St if they want to stay in consideration for a BCS game. State shouldn't even be in the position they are, since they deserved to lose last week in West lafayette to a Purdue team that gift wrapped a win for them. I have not been, and will not ever be impressed with this Michigan St team this year. They absolutely cannot cover, and they can't run for a decent per carry average. Now they match up against a motivated team that is coached well enough to exploit their lack of cover skills and has a good enough defense to force them into mistakes. If MSU steps up and wins this game, it will be contrary to everything else they've done this year. Consider this: MSU has surrendered a 24/5 TD/INT ratio this year. Ouch. Look for Darryl Clark to exploit that.
7. @Ole Miss -4 1/2 v LSU: here's a little known fact. LSU has been outgained by their opponents this year, averaging only 310 yards per game, while giving up 312. The team is banged up, as Jordon jefferson didn't play last week. In addition, Charles Scott and a couple lineman have been deemed out for the year due to injury. Despite all this, LSU stands at 8-2. This simply is not an 8-2 ballclub, and it's just a mattter of time until they come crashing down to earth. Ole Miss, on the other hand has hammered Tennessee and Arkansas in it's last two home games, and is certainly looking to add more salt to Les Miles's wounds after clubbing the Tigers in Baton Rouge last year. The rebs appear to be hitting their stride, and LSU is overdue for a clunker performance.
8. @BYU -10 v Air Force: I originally looked at this game as a possibility to back Air Force, but the more I look at it, BYU looks like the correct play. First, let me me say that I am stunned at how well AirForce's defense has played this year. However, they have not faced anything remotely close to BYU's firepower on offense. Also, they have been severely lacking, despite their good record, in the running game. Very mediocre defenses have held Air Forice in check, and BYU has had success with it also. If Air Force wants to cover this, they'll have to score in the 20's and I am not sure they are capable of doing so.
9. Kentucky +9 1/2 @Georgia: I really wish this game was at 12:30 PM or something, but no such luck..it's the ESPN2 night game. That's not ideal, but I still think Kentucky is the value side here. Georgia, already somewhat limited offensively, will be without AJ Green, so Joe Cox won't have his top wideout to make use of this week. Kentucky is also offensively challenged, but they are better than Georgia on defense, and they probably will have less pressure exerted on them by Georgia's defense. They are shifty enough to put some points o the board, and are stingy enough on defense to keep the score close. Kentucky has played well against Georgia in recent years. Too many points here to lay with a mediocre offense.
10. NC State +21 @Virginia Tech: VT has administered some hellacious beatings on some poeple this year, but I don't think NC State will fall victim to that. Defensively, NC State is a sieve, but their offensive work has been good. VT doesnt have much to play for, so they might be sleepwalking. If they lose this by more than 21, it will be a clear indication that Tom O'Brien has some issues with quitters in his program. My guess is that they step up and play well enough to be able to hang within this large pread.
11.Nevada -30@ New Mexico St: Nevada has been running through the WAC like Sherman ran through Atlanta. It hasn't been pretty, as San Jose St can attest,having been beaten like a rented ox because we can't see our screens well enough. Now they fce yet another WAC weakling in NMSU, who almost certainly is the worst offense in the country. I can't see much offnsive output from the Aggies here, but I do believe that Nevada will continue to lay waste to these WAC defenses and this one will be no different. They're leading the nation in run offense and it isn't even close. I can see another 54-10 game here.
Others: I have a lean to Duke, as I think they can exploit Miami's banged up secondary and they are getting a boatload of points (+18.5). If they can force 3 or 4 punts, they've got a great chance....Have a hunch that Texas Tech(+6.5) either beats Oklahoma, or it comes down to the wire. TT's defense, believe it or not has the ability to stop some people, and the offense is alwayus capable.....San Diego St is catching 20 at Utah in a tough sandwich spot for Utah between TCU and with BYU on deck. The Aztecs are massively improved on both sides of the ball, and Utah has struggled with worse than these guys.....UCLA(-5) get to attempt revenge for what happened to them last year in Tempe against the Sun Devils. 4 defensive scores. It was a nightmare. In that game, ASU gained a grand total of 122 yards on 50 plays. I'd say UCLA's confidence is pretty high that they can dole out some payback to ASU. That's it for now..hopefully this is not incoherent babble.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Week 11 Musings
You know it's getting late in the year when you're surfing the FM radio dial and you come across the all Christmas song channel. i think just about every market has some station that does it. I was treated to Nat King Cole's version of "The Christmas Song" today. Got to admit, in a world where I can find about 27 things I hate intensely in every waking moment, it's one of the few things I like: being able to hear Christmas music in 60 degree weather on November 12th.
Speaking of things I hate intensely, why is it that no matter how hard I try, I simply cannot escape Matt Millen? What has this sack of shit ever done to make football tv producers maniacally and addictively insist that he call just about every football game available? We're already subjected to seeing him on ABC/ESPN every Saturday in what almost always turns out to be a desirable game to watch. Desirable, that is, until he starts belching his inane commentary. As if that's not enough, ESPN also shoves him down our throats in during Monday Night football wrapups. Luckily for me, my avoidance of all things Stuart Scott has caused me to miss him in that role. Now, as I turned on the Bears /49ers taffy pull on NFL network tonight, I see that the NFL network has decided that Matt Millen twice a week is not nearly enough, as he is in my face once again. The worst thing about this is that this guy is absolutely unlistenable. If anyone tivo'd the game, count how many times he said "well done" during the course of the game. It could actually be a great substitute if you have built up an immunity to the Brent Musberger drinking game. Carissa and I lost count at 40. I knew that his firing by the Lions would probably make my life significantly less pleasant. One other thing: It also drives me insane when he says "I want you to watch...." as if we are all too stupid to pick something up during the course of a game and he has to spoonfeed us. Here's what I have to say to Matt Millen. Hey asshole, i want you to listen to this. GO FUCK YOURSELF! You've done that? Great. Well done.
Speaking of the Bears, it looks like I'm lucky I don't have to be subjected to those assbandits every week. It's one extreme or the other with these guys. Consider their defense. Throwing out the Browns game, (since the Browns are one of about 13 NFL teams that are completely putrid and can't be taken seriously as a professional outfit), in their last two games against Cincinnati and Arizona. Here are the results of the other teams drives from the start of the game until it was effectively called off via slaughter rule. Cincinnati: Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, touchdown. ARIZONA: Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal(only because they got the ball with only 22 seconds left in the half) field goal. So basically, in those two weeks, to start the game until the game was pretty much over, Bears opponents scored on 12 out of 12 possessions, 9 of them touchdowns. the best offense in college football, let alone the pros, scores on half of their possessions. So if you let the other team score half the time, you are an uncontrollable crumbling dike of a defense. how about 12 out of 12? Ouch babe. And when their defense plays acceptably, or to be more accurate, plays against a team that can't get out of it's own way offensively, their quarterback looks like the village idiot in the red zone. To be honest, if you don't at least slightly suspect that Cutler is on the take, you aren't paying attention. He can't possibly be that bad.
The musings finally had an acceptable week, coming in at 7-4. Season total is 54-65. 45%. Holy shit that sucks. Work to do to get to 500.
1. @Cincinnati -9 1/2 v West Virginia(FRIDAY): I thought Cincy would have their close call last week, and it happened. It's hard to believe that they even had to sweat at all in that game, since they piled up 730 yards of offense against UCONN. They knuckleheaded around for awhile in the second half though, and that led to a scrappy UCONN team almost stealing one from them. They won't fall for that again. West Virginia comes into this game in somewhat bad shape. their QB Jarrett Brown has been alternately hurt and clueless, and their best player Noel Devine missed most of last week with a badly turned ankle. Their defense is pretty solid, but Cincy is the top offense in the nation, and West Virginia had all kinds of problems with BJ Daniels from South Florida two weeks ago, who isn't in the same league with Cincinnati's QB Zach Collaros as a passer and maybe not even as a runner. They gained a grand total of 275 yards against a checked out Louisville team at home last week. With the combination of Cincy's offense, a reeling West Virginia squad and the coaching mismatch of the new millenium, I think the "Eers are ripe to be completely blown out in front of a national TV audience. ED NOTE: Did I mention that i hate playing favorites????
2. Northwestern +5 @Illinois: You knew this was coming didn't you? A completely lost team sacks up and wins a couple games, and now at 3-6, they are a significant favorite against a well coached 6-3 team. Makes sense. I've already seen headlines saying "Confident Illinois looking toward possible bowl" and I've heard players quoted as saying that they can't look toward the Cincinnati game in December. If they say that they can't look past Northwestern and toward Cincinnati, they are looking past Northwestern and toward Cincinnati, as shockingly ridiculous as that premise might sound. How in the world this team can be overconfident against any team, I have no earthly idea, but they probably are. I'll be very surprised if they win, let alone cover more than a FG. If they pull it off, then Ron Zook will have done a great job preparing his players this week. Ok, you can stop laughing now.
3. @Purdue +3 v Michigan St: I am just not a big fan of Michigan St on the road. Ii don't think they do a good job of covering in the pasing game, and they are having all kinds of trouble running the ball for any kind of per carry average. 2 weeks ago, I was convinced that Minnesota was a complete non-entity on offnse withoout Eric Decker at wide receiver, and they probably were, but Adam Weber carved them up for 400+ and 42 points. Now they travel to West Lafayette where the Boilers have some added hop in their step coming off the Michigan win as well as their confidence from taking out Ohio St on that field. Statistically, MSU is superior, so i see why the spread is where it is, but at the end of the day, I suspect the wrong team is favored.
4. Texas -23 1/2 @Baylor: It makes no difference where this game is played, because Baylor has absolutely no home field advantage in Waco, so the stands will be filled by mostly Texas fans. Although Texas will almost certainly not give Baylor their best shot, this line is deflated due to Baylor's fluke performance last week in Columbia, Missouri. As much as I like Art Briles, I just can't envision a scenario where Texas doesn't completely shut down Baylor to the tune of about 3-7 points. Not sure if you've noticed, but Colt McCoy has been on a roll the past couple of weeks, so you can expect the Horns to put up some points on the Bears as well. I can see a 47-7 type game here, mostly due to the Texas defense and their penchant for non offensive scores.
5. Tennesee +5 1/2 @Ole Miss: Over the course of the season, one of the teams that has impressed me the most has been Tennessee. I think it's pretty obvious that Lane Kiffin, despite his penchant for acting like a douchebag during the summer, knows what he's doing. it's also clear that their defense is very well run by his dad. Basically, I see this as a game where one team is slightly better on both sides of the ball. If you take a look at Jonathan crompton's numbers over the past 5 games, 4 of which were against SEC defenses including Bama, you have to be impressed. 60% completions, 8.32 yds per attempt and a 14/2 ratio. I think his improvement has a lot to do with Kiffin's system. On the flip side, Jevan snead has struggled all year, especially against good defenses, and Ole Miss runs a pro-style offense. You think Monte Kiffin might have some idea how to fashion a solid game plan here? I do. I think UT has a great shot at winning this game outright. I'd say that they are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now other than Alabama and Florida. The only drawback is that Tennessee had a bit of a hiccup with a couple of their players this week(including 2 contributers). No big deal though...just armed robbery. Standard, routine SEC minutia. No big deal.
6. @Nc State +8 v Clemson: Clemson is riding high, and has looked very good over the past month or so, but this is just the kind of game in which they figure out a way to bring the pleasant feelings to an end and shove their fanbase's faces into a pile of horse manure. Nc State has had some head scratchers this year, but they remain in bowl contention, and their offense is certainly capable of giving a repeat of their performance at home against Pittsburgh early in the year. Clemson is also capable of gagging on the road, much like they did earlier this year against Maryland. Clemson is certainly due for a bad performance, and although NC State has struggled mightily on defense, they might find Clemson's occasionally inept offense somewhat to their liking. Big danger spot for Clemson here.
7. Iowa +17 @Ohio St: I understand that people didn't like that Iowa was undefeated, and we all had to deal with the horrific possibility of a run of the mill Big Ten team possibly going undefeated and ruining our January 9th or whatever it is just like Ohio St has in the past. Well, that's over with, and Iowa looked bad as they hacked away their chance in their debacle against Northwestern. Obviously at the same time, Ohio St was taking care of Penn St in Happy Valley. How things can change in a week. I have to ask this: If that line was set prior to the games last week, what would it have been? OSU -3.?? Now it's 17? Did Iowa's front seven get suspended? Is Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa coaching staff staying home this week? I understand that Iowa is without Ricky Stanzi, but when was this guy ever worth 14 points in a spread? He's thrown 14 interceptions this year. He's an average QB who played capably. He is not by any means a superstar. The kid that relieved him last week had no practice time and was thrown into the fire. He'll certainly be be much more perpared, and he's actually Iowa's all time leading High School passer, so it's not like he's a total chump. I understand that Ohio St has been good on defense, and that Iowa will struggle to score in this game, but last I checked, Terrelle Pryor has had exactly one good game this year. Iowa is going to have a hard time scoring in this game, but this team is not 9-1 by accident. There is overwhelming value in 17 points in this game. You absolutely have to take it.
8. Stanford +11 @USC: Stanford has been very impressive on offense this year, as their results will tell you. Toby Gerhart is a beast running the ball, and their QB Andrew Luck is the best passer in the country this side of Jimmy Claussen. Now they travel to USC on a roll. The Trojans defense has not shown an ability lately to stop any good offenses. Oregon st shredded them a couple weeks ago, and we all know what Oregon dod to them. Now Stanford comes in with a pedigree that probably falls between those two teams. USC's offense also has not been anything to write home about, although it appears that they might have a good matchup here with Stanford's defense, which has had some issues. At the end of the day, however, I think stanford's offense is going to have success against USC's defense. There's definitely value in the double digits here. Stanford is a tough football team, and we all know Harbaugh's thoughts on covering the spread.
9. Miami -3 @North Carolina: UNC has had 2 nice games in a row, both of which were musings losers, but I'm going back to well and fading these guys again. North carolina has a very good defense statistically, but they have not faced an offense like Miami's yet. Well, check that, FSU is in the same league and UNC gave up 400 yards passing in that one. Miami comes in on a roll as well, having blown out Virginia last week, the same team that won in Chapel Hill a few weeks ago. Miami's defense has not been fantastic this year, but I think they can hold down this UNC attack, which is averaging less than 300yards per game, and I think they'll have enough success offensively to cover this meager line. Carolina is going to need a terrible effort from Miami and a lot of breaks to be able to win this one. I like the Canes chances a lot, all things being equal.
10 Arizona +3 @ Cal: I think this might be the game that Arizona goes from being a curiosity to a team that people stand up and notice. The last time I was on Arizona on the road, they lost to Washington on the fam ous"kicked ball to the defender in stride for a td" game. Had that fluke play n ot happened, Arizona would be undefeated in the PAC 10 and the front runner for the Rose Bowl. Cal is coming off a game in which they were completely dominated(outgained 436-239) at home by Oregon St. Now they play an arguably better team in Arizona, certainly a better defense, without Jahvid Best. they'll need kevin Riley to have a great game, and that has not gone well in big games in the past. Arizona is playing for myuch more than cal is, and at this point, they are better than Cal in all phases. Both on paper, and situationally, I think Arizona has the advantage here, so I'll take the 3.
11. @Oregon -17 (buy the half point) v Arizona St: Pity Arizona St. I think they are walking into a bad situation this week in Eugene. First of all, they had a tough emotional game with USC last week in which they competed but fell short.To say that they shot their wad in that one might be an understatement. Now they have to go to arguably the toughest venue in the PAC 10 to play a team that got embarrassed last week and is looking for redemption. Second of all, they have no offense. Oregon's defense is pretty good against non-power offenses, which ASU certainly is not, so i would suspect that ASU is going to have all kinds of problems scoring, and there are rumblings that they might bench nerd Qb Danny Sullivan and toss a true freshman out there to see how he can do. That will be a problem. On defense, ASU has looked very good this year, but they will not be successful stopping Oregon, because nobody is, other than Boise. I can see a 38-10 type game with relative ease, and it might be worse than that. I'm also thinking that the line might creep down a little and settle in at 17. Very bad spot for ASU.
others: For some reason I have a feeling that South Carolina will rise up and play a decent game against Florida. They've been absolutely destroyed the last couple times they played them, but they should be able to hang in defensively, since Florida just isn't as explosive as they've been in the past, and they have some competence on offense. 17 points at home for the Gamecocks is a lot.....Ga tech struggles against the pass, so they'll have to be somewhat effective against it if they want to cover 13 at Duke. either that or they have to run at will, which is possible. I like Duke chances of keeping it somwhat close though..... 25 points in the Penn state v Indiana game seems like a lot doesn't it?? IU certainly could pull a Virginia and get blown out, but wow.....For some reason, i think kansas rises up and gets things done against Nebraska catching 4 1/2 at home. Nebraska is completely inept on offense at this point, and although Kansas has regressed terribly, I have a feeling they'll get their offense going a bit and surprise some people this week....utah St is layying 13 1/2 against San Jose st. They should never be that much of a favorite, but SJSU looked so bad against Nevada last week, oddsmakers had no choice. I can't see Utah St covering a spread like that.....Although Wake(-5) is traditionally a terrible home favorite, I like their chances to carve up Florida St and hold their freshman backup somewhat in check. Ponder has been the only bright spot for that team. Wake can oput them out of their misery with a win here. That's it...have a good week!!
Speaking of things I hate intensely, why is it that no matter how hard I try, I simply cannot escape Matt Millen? What has this sack of shit ever done to make football tv producers maniacally and addictively insist that he call just about every football game available? We're already subjected to seeing him on ABC/ESPN every Saturday in what almost always turns out to be a desirable game to watch. Desirable, that is, until he starts belching his inane commentary. As if that's not enough, ESPN also shoves him down our throats in during Monday Night football wrapups. Luckily for me, my avoidance of all things Stuart Scott has caused me to miss him in that role. Now, as I turned on the Bears /49ers taffy pull on NFL network tonight, I see that the NFL network has decided that Matt Millen twice a week is not nearly enough, as he is in my face once again. The worst thing about this is that this guy is absolutely unlistenable. If anyone tivo'd the game, count how many times he said "well done" during the course of the game. It could actually be a great substitute if you have built up an immunity to the Brent Musberger drinking game. Carissa and I lost count at 40. I knew that his firing by the Lions would probably make my life significantly less pleasant. One other thing: It also drives me insane when he says "I want you to watch...." as if we are all too stupid to pick something up during the course of a game and he has to spoonfeed us. Here's what I have to say to Matt Millen. Hey asshole, i want you to listen to this. GO FUCK YOURSELF! You've done that? Great. Well done.
Speaking of the Bears, it looks like I'm lucky I don't have to be subjected to those assbandits every week. It's one extreme or the other with these guys. Consider their defense. Throwing out the Browns game, (since the Browns are one of about 13 NFL teams that are completely putrid and can't be taken seriously as a professional outfit), in their last two games against Cincinnati and Arizona. Here are the results of the other teams drives from the start of the game until it was effectively called off via slaughter rule. Cincinnati: Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, touchdown. ARIZONA: Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal(only because they got the ball with only 22 seconds left in the half) field goal. So basically, in those two weeks, to start the game until the game was pretty much over, Bears opponents scored on 12 out of 12 possessions, 9 of them touchdowns. the best offense in college football, let alone the pros, scores on half of their possessions. So if you let the other team score half the time, you are an uncontrollable crumbling dike of a defense. how about 12 out of 12? Ouch babe. And when their defense plays acceptably, or to be more accurate, plays against a team that can't get out of it's own way offensively, their quarterback looks like the village idiot in the red zone. To be honest, if you don't at least slightly suspect that Cutler is on the take, you aren't paying attention. He can't possibly be that bad.
The musings finally had an acceptable week, coming in at 7-4. Season total is 54-65. 45%. Holy shit that sucks. Work to do to get to 500.
1. @Cincinnati -9 1/2 v West Virginia(FRIDAY): I thought Cincy would have their close call last week, and it happened. It's hard to believe that they even had to sweat at all in that game, since they piled up 730 yards of offense against UCONN. They knuckleheaded around for awhile in the second half though, and that led to a scrappy UCONN team almost stealing one from them. They won't fall for that again. West Virginia comes into this game in somewhat bad shape. their QB Jarrett Brown has been alternately hurt and clueless, and their best player Noel Devine missed most of last week with a badly turned ankle. Their defense is pretty solid, but Cincy is the top offense in the nation, and West Virginia had all kinds of problems with BJ Daniels from South Florida two weeks ago, who isn't in the same league with Cincinnati's QB Zach Collaros as a passer and maybe not even as a runner. They gained a grand total of 275 yards against a checked out Louisville team at home last week. With the combination of Cincy's offense, a reeling West Virginia squad and the coaching mismatch of the new millenium, I think the "Eers are ripe to be completely blown out in front of a national TV audience. ED NOTE: Did I mention that i hate playing favorites????
2. Northwestern +5 @Illinois: You knew this was coming didn't you? A completely lost team sacks up and wins a couple games, and now at 3-6, they are a significant favorite against a well coached 6-3 team. Makes sense. I've already seen headlines saying "Confident Illinois looking toward possible bowl" and I've heard players quoted as saying that they can't look toward the Cincinnati game in December. If they say that they can't look past Northwestern and toward Cincinnati, they are looking past Northwestern and toward Cincinnati, as shockingly ridiculous as that premise might sound. How in the world this team can be overconfident against any team, I have no earthly idea, but they probably are. I'll be very surprised if they win, let alone cover more than a FG. If they pull it off, then Ron Zook will have done a great job preparing his players this week. Ok, you can stop laughing now.
3. @Purdue +3 v Michigan St: I am just not a big fan of Michigan St on the road. Ii don't think they do a good job of covering in the pasing game, and they are having all kinds of trouble running the ball for any kind of per carry average. 2 weeks ago, I was convinced that Minnesota was a complete non-entity on offnse withoout Eric Decker at wide receiver, and they probably were, but Adam Weber carved them up for 400+ and 42 points. Now they travel to West Lafayette where the Boilers have some added hop in their step coming off the Michigan win as well as their confidence from taking out Ohio St on that field. Statistically, MSU is superior, so i see why the spread is where it is, but at the end of the day, I suspect the wrong team is favored.
4. Texas -23 1/2 @Baylor: It makes no difference where this game is played, because Baylor has absolutely no home field advantage in Waco, so the stands will be filled by mostly Texas fans. Although Texas will almost certainly not give Baylor their best shot, this line is deflated due to Baylor's fluke performance last week in Columbia, Missouri. As much as I like Art Briles, I just can't envision a scenario where Texas doesn't completely shut down Baylor to the tune of about 3-7 points. Not sure if you've noticed, but Colt McCoy has been on a roll the past couple of weeks, so you can expect the Horns to put up some points on the Bears as well. I can see a 47-7 type game here, mostly due to the Texas defense and their penchant for non offensive scores.
5. Tennesee +5 1/2 @Ole Miss: Over the course of the season, one of the teams that has impressed me the most has been Tennessee. I think it's pretty obvious that Lane Kiffin, despite his penchant for acting like a douchebag during the summer, knows what he's doing. it's also clear that their defense is very well run by his dad. Basically, I see this as a game where one team is slightly better on both sides of the ball. If you take a look at Jonathan crompton's numbers over the past 5 games, 4 of which were against SEC defenses including Bama, you have to be impressed. 60% completions, 8.32 yds per attempt and a 14/2 ratio. I think his improvement has a lot to do with Kiffin's system. On the flip side, Jevan snead has struggled all year, especially against good defenses, and Ole Miss runs a pro-style offense. You think Monte Kiffin might have some idea how to fashion a solid game plan here? I do. I think UT has a great shot at winning this game outright. I'd say that they are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now other than Alabama and Florida. The only drawback is that Tennessee had a bit of a hiccup with a couple of their players this week(including 2 contributers). No big deal though...just armed robbery. Standard, routine SEC minutia. No big deal.
6. @Nc State +8 v Clemson: Clemson is riding high, and has looked very good over the past month or so, but this is just the kind of game in which they figure out a way to bring the pleasant feelings to an end and shove their fanbase's faces into a pile of horse manure. Nc State has had some head scratchers this year, but they remain in bowl contention, and their offense is certainly capable of giving a repeat of their performance at home against Pittsburgh early in the year. Clemson is also capable of gagging on the road, much like they did earlier this year against Maryland. Clemson is certainly due for a bad performance, and although NC State has struggled mightily on defense, they might find Clemson's occasionally inept offense somewhat to their liking. Big danger spot for Clemson here.
7. Iowa +17 @Ohio St: I understand that people didn't like that Iowa was undefeated, and we all had to deal with the horrific possibility of a run of the mill Big Ten team possibly going undefeated and ruining our January 9th or whatever it is just like Ohio St has in the past. Well, that's over with, and Iowa looked bad as they hacked away their chance in their debacle against Northwestern. Obviously at the same time, Ohio St was taking care of Penn St in Happy Valley. How things can change in a week. I have to ask this: If that line was set prior to the games last week, what would it have been? OSU -3.?? Now it's 17? Did Iowa's front seven get suspended? Is Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa coaching staff staying home this week? I understand that Iowa is without Ricky Stanzi, but when was this guy ever worth 14 points in a spread? He's thrown 14 interceptions this year. He's an average QB who played capably. He is not by any means a superstar. The kid that relieved him last week had no practice time and was thrown into the fire. He'll certainly be be much more perpared, and he's actually Iowa's all time leading High School passer, so it's not like he's a total chump. I understand that Ohio St has been good on defense, and that Iowa will struggle to score in this game, but last I checked, Terrelle Pryor has had exactly one good game this year. Iowa is going to have a hard time scoring in this game, but this team is not 9-1 by accident. There is overwhelming value in 17 points in this game. You absolutely have to take it.
8. Stanford +11 @USC: Stanford has been very impressive on offense this year, as their results will tell you. Toby Gerhart is a beast running the ball, and their QB Andrew Luck is the best passer in the country this side of Jimmy Claussen. Now they travel to USC on a roll. The Trojans defense has not shown an ability lately to stop any good offenses. Oregon st shredded them a couple weeks ago, and we all know what Oregon dod to them. Now Stanford comes in with a pedigree that probably falls between those two teams. USC's offense also has not been anything to write home about, although it appears that they might have a good matchup here with Stanford's defense, which has had some issues. At the end of the day, however, I think stanford's offense is going to have success against USC's defense. There's definitely value in the double digits here. Stanford is a tough football team, and we all know Harbaugh's thoughts on covering the spread.
9. Miami -3 @North Carolina: UNC has had 2 nice games in a row, both of which were musings losers, but I'm going back to well and fading these guys again. North carolina has a very good defense statistically, but they have not faced an offense like Miami's yet. Well, check that, FSU is in the same league and UNC gave up 400 yards passing in that one. Miami comes in on a roll as well, having blown out Virginia last week, the same team that won in Chapel Hill a few weeks ago. Miami's defense has not been fantastic this year, but I think they can hold down this UNC attack, which is averaging less than 300yards per game, and I think they'll have enough success offensively to cover this meager line. Carolina is going to need a terrible effort from Miami and a lot of breaks to be able to win this one. I like the Canes chances a lot, all things being equal.
10 Arizona +3 @ Cal: I think this might be the game that Arizona goes from being a curiosity to a team that people stand up and notice. The last time I was on Arizona on the road, they lost to Washington on the fam ous"kicked ball to the defender in stride for a td" game. Had that fluke play n ot happened, Arizona would be undefeated in the PAC 10 and the front runner for the Rose Bowl. Cal is coming off a game in which they were completely dominated(outgained 436-239) at home by Oregon St. Now they play an arguably better team in Arizona, certainly a better defense, without Jahvid Best. they'll need kevin Riley to have a great game, and that has not gone well in big games in the past. Arizona is playing for myuch more than cal is, and at this point, they are better than Cal in all phases. Both on paper, and situationally, I think Arizona has the advantage here, so I'll take the 3.
11. @Oregon -17 (buy the half point) v Arizona St: Pity Arizona St. I think they are walking into a bad situation this week in Eugene. First of all, they had a tough emotional game with USC last week in which they competed but fell short.To say that they shot their wad in that one might be an understatement. Now they have to go to arguably the toughest venue in the PAC 10 to play a team that got embarrassed last week and is looking for redemption. Second of all, they have no offense. Oregon's defense is pretty good against non-power offenses, which ASU certainly is not, so i would suspect that ASU is going to have all kinds of problems scoring, and there are rumblings that they might bench nerd Qb Danny Sullivan and toss a true freshman out there to see how he can do. That will be a problem. On defense, ASU has looked very good this year, but they will not be successful stopping Oregon, because nobody is, other than Boise. I can see a 38-10 type game with relative ease, and it might be worse than that. I'm also thinking that the line might creep down a little and settle in at 17. Very bad spot for ASU.
others: For some reason I have a feeling that South Carolina will rise up and play a decent game against Florida. They've been absolutely destroyed the last couple times they played them, but they should be able to hang in defensively, since Florida just isn't as explosive as they've been in the past, and they have some competence on offense. 17 points at home for the Gamecocks is a lot.....Ga tech struggles against the pass, so they'll have to be somewhat effective against it if they want to cover 13 at Duke. either that or they have to run at will, which is possible. I like Duke chances of keeping it somwhat close though..... 25 points in the Penn state v Indiana game seems like a lot doesn't it?? IU certainly could pull a Virginia and get blown out, but wow.....For some reason, i think kansas rises up and gets things done against Nebraska catching 4 1/2 at home. Nebraska is completely inept on offense at this point, and although Kansas has regressed terribly, I have a feeling they'll get their offense going a bit and surprise some people this week....utah St is layying 13 1/2 against San Jose st. They should never be that much of a favorite, but SJSU looked so bad against Nevada last week, oddsmakers had no choice. I can't see Utah St covering a spread like that.....Although Wake(-5) is traditionally a terrible home favorite, I like their chances to carve up Florida St and hold their freshman backup somewhat in check. Ponder has been the only bright spot for that team. Wake can oput them out of their misery with a win here. That's it...have a good week!!
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Week 10 Musings
Another horseshit week for the musings last week(4-7), but who's counting? Only a couple of the losses were bad calls, the games just all seemed to find a way to lose. I especially like that my rationale for the Idaho -3 play was "we just need the Vandals to eke out a W in this one." Sounds great, dipshit, but what happens if they win by 1? Then a "win" won't constitute a "win" now would it? That's why you keep going 4-7 every week, jackass! The Indiana v Iowa play, as I'm sure everyone knows was kind of the icing on the cake as far as this year goes. Generally, you would feel pretty comfortable being up 21-7 with 8 minutes left in the third quarter about to snap the ball from the opponent's 2 yard line. You'd be pretty comfortable in your chances of grabbing the upset if you're Indiana, that is. Throw in a 17 1/2 point spread, and you wouldn't even fathom the possibility of losing your wager. Of course, you wouldn't know that a thrice tipped pass would land in a fleet safety's arms in stride for 6, then your defense would give up back to back 1 play drives covering a total of 156 yards, and then to top it off, you'd give up a 30 yard TD on a line plunge when the other team is practically trying not to score as they run the clock out. Indeed, it was among the worst beats ever. There have been more painful ones on a hail mary or whatever, but never have I seen a game where so many things had to happen in so short a time period. you seriously couldn't have dreamed it up. Whatever....get em all out of the way now.
One positive development from last week, despite the fact that it was naturally a big L on the musings, was that USC got their collective heads handed to them. Even though I'm not a huge fan of Oregon, it sure was nice to see Pete Carroll and co get the shit kicked oput of them. And get the shit kicked out of them they did: 613 yards of total offense, almost 400 yards rushing. However, as I feel completely contented about USC's loss, I must say that I feel a void in my life right now. Except for maybe DickRod, there really aren't any coaches that a feel I large amount of vitriol for. Lloyd Carr is long gone, Tuberville is as well. Bill Stewart is a guy I feel more sorry for than anything else, and Les Miles's team isn't really good enough to work up a lather about. This is something I really need to examine. I need to look inward and find more hate. I've become soft, and I can't tolerate that.
Let's move on to this week...obviously I had nothing during the week..kind of an uneventful slab of games these weeknights.
1. Northwestern +17(buy it if you can) @Iowa: Again, we fade this Iowa outfit. They did everything they could to cough up their unbeaten season last week until the 4th quarter, at which point Indiana remembered that they were a collection of heartless, soul-less quivering JELLO molds and folded like a bunch of lawn chairs. Now here Iowa is again. facing a team in Northwestern that is pretty well coached and beat them in Iowa City last year. Iowa, despite what happened in the 4th quarter last week, is not explosive, and Northwestern is more sound defensively than Indiana is. QB Mike Kafka is going to play, and if you watched NW play Penn St last week, before Kafka got dinged up, you noticed that they were getting the better of the scrimmaging. Iowa has a trip to Columbus on deck, so despite what happened to them last week, I don't think NW will get Iowa's best shot. I must say that it would not totally shock me if NW somehow pulled off the upset to the cheers of millions across the country. Not likely, but not inconceivable.
2. Wisconsin -10 1/2 @Indiana: You might think that this is just a hate crime against Indiana for what they put me through last week, and you might be right, since I've had a scowl on my mouth ever since that game ended on Saturday, but I just don't see any way IU can keep this one competitive through 3 quarters. Can they possibly conjure up a solid effort here against a team that has literally owned them the past few years? Yes...that's right...Wisconsin players have ownership papers and actually bring Indiana home and put them in their collective closets at night. They literally own them. I'd call 55-20.,33-3, and 52-17 in the last 3 meetings ownership. In their last 4 games, Indiana has given up 480 yards to Iowa(not a juggernaut by any means), 474 to Northwestern(their best skill position guys are named Zeke Markshausen and Arby Fields, ok?...), 443 to Illinois (105th ranked offense at the time) and 536 to Virginia (116th in total offense. Has failed to crack 200 yards in a game since.) Now they're in a position where if they lay down they have an excuse to do so because so many people think they got screwed last week, plus they're Indiana, so it's in their nature. I foresee a lot of John Clay trotting into the endzone.
3. Kent St -3 1/2(buy it to 3 if feasible) @Akron: Kent is a team that is headed in the right direction. They made the sound decision of handing the keys to the offense to a young player who proved worthy of some trust. They sit at 5-4 with everything to pay for, and now they face Akron, who can't get out of their own way offensively and sit at 1-7. Kent's defense has been stout lately, so it would surprise me greatly if Akron has much success against them.
4. @Alabama -7 1/2 v LSU: It's true that Jordon Jefferson has looked better in recent weeks, but he is by no means a QB who can read and react to that defense. Bama is coming off their close one, with the narrow victory over Tennessee. I don't think they'll be challenged again until they play Florida in the SEC championship, and certainly not by this LSU outfit. Saban v Miles is like the Lions v the Christians as far as a test of wits, and I think the Bama offense will respond to all the hand wringing and national criticism. I think this one will end up somewhere in the 24-7 range.Good possibility for non offensive TDs for Bama as well.
5. Duke +10 @North Carolina: Despite what they did at VT last Thursday night, UNC remains a limited offensive club. They still rank 110th in total offense, and although their D is pretty solid and very fast, David Cutcliffe and Thad Lewis just don't look like they're going to be stopped
this year, as they have dropped points on solid defenses like Virginia Tech and Virginia on the road. Defensively, Duke has held their own, and as we've mentioned, doing so against the squirt gun capapbilities of TJ Yates and that taffy pulling offense is not going to like performing rocket science.
6. @Stanford +7 v Oregon: I realize that I have been going against Oregon and losing recently, but this is too juicy of a spot to pass up. First off, Stanford has played very well at home, and have some skill position people to give Oregon problems. Oregon is smallish up front, and Stanford has bludgeoned people at times with Toby Gerhart's muscular running. Also, Oregon is coming off that performance against USC. As impressive as it was, they are not likely to repeat it immediately on the road. I think Stanfard can play well enough that they can win this game due to how balanced they are throughout their team. They can run, and they've had success throwing it as well. I just think it's a tough matchup for the Ducks.
7.Wake Forest +16 @Georgia Tech: Listen, I like Georgia Tech a lot, I dare say significantly more than the next Tom Dick or Harry, but they are without a doubt due for a "clunker" type performance. They've covered several games in a row, and now face a Wake team that can exploit their weakness, which is pass defense. Riley Skinner has been cleared to play, and that's a good thing if you're a Deacs fan since he is the reason that Wake is ranked 21st in passing efficiency. Tech is ranked 102nd against the pass. There's some danger of Wake feeling sorry for themselves, coming off the heartbreak of last week when they got their still beating hearts ripped out of their chests in that Miami loss, but when you consider that there are some definite strong edges for Wake in this one, and that they are getting 16, and their well coached... you have the recipe for a play.
8. Vanderbilt +35 @Florida: Florida put up some points last week, but I'm curious to see if they can ring up scores against a defense not coordinated by Willie Martinez and that putrid Georgia coaching staff. We're talking about a staff whose only idea for how to motivate their team is to dress them up in complete abominations of uniforms. Red facemasks? Come on. Anyway, Vandy is struggling, and I think the fact that they were chasing Josh Nesbitt and co around like Special Olympians last week might have something to do with this spread, but I think the Dores have enough prode and competence, especially in their coaching staff, to avoid getting drubbed by more than 35. Spikes is missing, both Hernandez and Riley Cooper are rumored to be banged up...this might be a game in which Florida is just looking to get it over with coming off the Georgia game. Vandy probably only needs 1 Td to cover this, and since they went back to Mackenzi Adams, I think they'll be able to do so.
9. Oklahoma -4 1/2 @Nebraska: Can anyone look at this Nebraska offense right now and predict they score more than 10 points on Oklahoma if they are engaged? They've scored 9 on iowa st, 10 on Texas Tech and 13(offensively) on baylor the past 3 weeks. They have no idea who their QB is, all of their running backs are completely banged up to the point that their playing hot potato with the playbook, and they have no playmakers at receiver. It's true that oklahoma gave up some points to K State last week, but that was after the game was over. They aren't going to lookk like that again this week. On the other hand, Nebraska has a stout defense themselves., but even with Landry Jones under center, Oklahoma is far superior to nebraska on offense. I can't see the huskers mounting enough offensive yardage to stay in this one, even at home in what will probably be a nice atmosphere in Lincoln.
10. UCONN +17 @Cincinnati: This game became more difficult for UCONN when they scheduled it at night, but this team continues to play hard and smart every single week. i remember telling myself that I will not miss any more opportunities to ride these guys as dogs, and here they are getting 17. granted, it's against a legitimate squad in Cincy, but I like how UCONN is coached, and their offense has show a lot of balance this year. Starting QB Endres is out, but backup Frazer has experience and threw for 300+ in relief last week against Rutgers, including what should have been a game winning drive. Cincy still has not had the close shave win that all really good teams have, and I think it comes in this game. UCONN is a solid squad. If they get blown out here, just tip your cap to the growing legend of Brian Kelly.
11. @Hawaii +2 1/2(you might get 3) v Utah St: Yes, Utah St is much better, and on paper they have a nice offense, but they are not ready to be a favorite in games like this. They are a good play in games like last week at Fresno, where they can sneak up on teams and come in under the number, but not in games that they have to cover. I haven't checked but I am willing to bet that they have never won on the island. They've been a road favorite once before this year, at New mexico St, and they lost that game outright to probably the least talented team in the country. Hawaii still has the ability to burn you in the passing game, and Utah st's d has been nothing to write home about. I don't think they can get it done in this spot on the island. As a dog, maybe. Not as a favorite.
others: I see USC(-10) bouncing back and thumping ASU. ASU has a decent defense, but they are limited offensively, and USC will be out for redemption. Oregon St is gettting 7 at Cal. Cal is better than them, but these are the types of late in the year games that OSU wins and cal loses.....I think Pitt has a chance to thoroughly destroy Syracuse, laying 21. The Cuse is feeling sorry for itself right now, and Pitt is clicking....Penn St is the better team in their game with Ohio St and I expect them to win. the line moved to 5 however, so it droipped out of the musing category. ohio St is going to have all kinds of problems scoring in that one. Look for increased heat on Tressel if they can't get their shit together. I also have a feeling on the following...K St +2 1/2 at home against Kansas, Colorado St to beat a terrible UNLV team in what amounts to a pick em game, and I think Army hangs with Air Force despite their probably inability to score much of anything against that AF defense....That's it....have a good week, and fade away!!!!
One positive development from last week, despite the fact that it was naturally a big L on the musings, was that USC got their collective heads handed to them. Even though I'm not a huge fan of Oregon, it sure was nice to see Pete Carroll and co get the shit kicked oput of them. And get the shit kicked out of them they did: 613 yards of total offense, almost 400 yards rushing. However, as I feel completely contented about USC's loss, I must say that I feel a void in my life right now. Except for maybe DickRod, there really aren't any coaches that a feel I large amount of vitriol for. Lloyd Carr is long gone, Tuberville is as well. Bill Stewart is a guy I feel more sorry for than anything else, and Les Miles's team isn't really good enough to work up a lather about. This is something I really need to examine. I need to look inward and find more hate. I've become soft, and I can't tolerate that.
Let's move on to this week...obviously I had nothing during the week..kind of an uneventful slab of games these weeknights.
1. Northwestern +17(buy it if you can) @Iowa: Again, we fade this Iowa outfit. They did everything they could to cough up their unbeaten season last week until the 4th quarter, at which point Indiana remembered that they were a collection of heartless, soul-less quivering JELLO molds and folded like a bunch of lawn chairs. Now here Iowa is again. facing a team in Northwestern that is pretty well coached and beat them in Iowa City last year. Iowa, despite what happened in the 4th quarter last week, is not explosive, and Northwestern is more sound defensively than Indiana is. QB Mike Kafka is going to play, and if you watched NW play Penn St last week, before Kafka got dinged up, you noticed that they were getting the better of the scrimmaging. Iowa has a trip to Columbus on deck, so despite what happened to them last week, I don't think NW will get Iowa's best shot. I must say that it would not totally shock me if NW somehow pulled off the upset to the cheers of millions across the country. Not likely, but not inconceivable.
2. Wisconsin -10 1/2 @Indiana: You might think that this is just a hate crime against Indiana for what they put me through last week, and you might be right, since I've had a scowl on my mouth ever since that game ended on Saturday, but I just don't see any way IU can keep this one competitive through 3 quarters. Can they possibly conjure up a solid effort here against a team that has literally owned them the past few years? Yes...that's right...Wisconsin players have ownership papers and actually bring Indiana home and put them in their collective closets at night. They literally own them. I'd call 55-20.,33-3, and 52-17 in the last 3 meetings ownership. In their last 4 games, Indiana has given up 480 yards to Iowa(not a juggernaut by any means), 474 to Northwestern(their best skill position guys are named Zeke Markshausen and Arby Fields, ok?...), 443 to Illinois (105th ranked offense at the time) and 536 to Virginia (116th in total offense. Has failed to crack 200 yards in a game since.) Now they're in a position where if they lay down they have an excuse to do so because so many people think they got screwed last week, plus they're Indiana, so it's in their nature. I foresee a lot of John Clay trotting into the endzone.
3. Kent St -3 1/2(buy it to 3 if feasible) @Akron: Kent is a team that is headed in the right direction. They made the sound decision of handing the keys to the offense to a young player who proved worthy of some trust. They sit at 5-4 with everything to pay for, and now they face Akron, who can't get out of their own way offensively and sit at 1-7. Kent's defense has been stout lately, so it would surprise me greatly if Akron has much success against them.
4. @Alabama -7 1/2 v LSU: It's true that Jordon Jefferson has looked better in recent weeks, but he is by no means a QB who can read and react to that defense. Bama is coming off their close one, with the narrow victory over Tennessee. I don't think they'll be challenged again until they play Florida in the SEC championship, and certainly not by this LSU outfit. Saban v Miles is like the Lions v the Christians as far as a test of wits, and I think the Bama offense will respond to all the hand wringing and national criticism. I think this one will end up somewhere in the 24-7 range.Good possibility for non offensive TDs for Bama as well.
5. Duke +10 @North Carolina: Despite what they did at VT last Thursday night, UNC remains a limited offensive club. They still rank 110th in total offense, and although their D is pretty solid and very fast, David Cutcliffe and Thad Lewis just don't look like they're going to be stopped
this year, as they have dropped points on solid defenses like Virginia Tech and Virginia on the road. Defensively, Duke has held their own, and as we've mentioned, doing so against the squirt gun capapbilities of TJ Yates and that taffy pulling offense is not going to like performing rocket science.
6. @Stanford +7 v Oregon: I realize that I have been going against Oregon and losing recently, but this is too juicy of a spot to pass up. First off, Stanford has played very well at home, and have some skill position people to give Oregon problems. Oregon is smallish up front, and Stanford has bludgeoned people at times with Toby Gerhart's muscular running. Also, Oregon is coming off that performance against USC. As impressive as it was, they are not likely to repeat it immediately on the road. I think Stanfard can play well enough that they can win this game due to how balanced they are throughout their team. They can run, and they've had success throwing it as well. I just think it's a tough matchup for the Ducks.
7.Wake Forest +16 @Georgia Tech: Listen, I like Georgia Tech a lot, I dare say significantly more than the next Tom Dick or Harry, but they are without a doubt due for a "clunker" type performance. They've covered several games in a row, and now face a Wake team that can exploit their weakness, which is pass defense. Riley Skinner has been cleared to play, and that's a good thing if you're a Deacs fan since he is the reason that Wake is ranked 21st in passing efficiency. Tech is ranked 102nd against the pass. There's some danger of Wake feeling sorry for themselves, coming off the heartbreak of last week when they got their still beating hearts ripped out of their chests in that Miami loss, but when you consider that there are some definite strong edges for Wake in this one, and that they are getting 16, and their well coached... you have the recipe for a play.
8. Vanderbilt +35 @Florida: Florida put up some points last week, but I'm curious to see if they can ring up scores against a defense not coordinated by Willie Martinez and that putrid Georgia coaching staff. We're talking about a staff whose only idea for how to motivate their team is to dress them up in complete abominations of uniforms. Red facemasks? Come on. Anyway, Vandy is struggling, and I think the fact that they were chasing Josh Nesbitt and co around like Special Olympians last week might have something to do with this spread, but I think the Dores have enough prode and competence, especially in their coaching staff, to avoid getting drubbed by more than 35. Spikes is missing, both Hernandez and Riley Cooper are rumored to be banged up...this might be a game in which Florida is just looking to get it over with coming off the Georgia game. Vandy probably only needs 1 Td to cover this, and since they went back to Mackenzi Adams, I think they'll be able to do so.
9. Oklahoma -4 1/2 @Nebraska: Can anyone look at this Nebraska offense right now and predict they score more than 10 points on Oklahoma if they are engaged? They've scored 9 on iowa st, 10 on Texas Tech and 13(offensively) on baylor the past 3 weeks. They have no idea who their QB is, all of their running backs are completely banged up to the point that their playing hot potato with the playbook, and they have no playmakers at receiver. It's true that oklahoma gave up some points to K State last week, but that was after the game was over. They aren't going to lookk like that again this week. On the other hand, Nebraska has a stout defense themselves., but even with Landry Jones under center, Oklahoma is far superior to nebraska on offense. I can't see the huskers mounting enough offensive yardage to stay in this one, even at home in what will probably be a nice atmosphere in Lincoln.
10. UCONN +17 @Cincinnati: This game became more difficult for UCONN when they scheduled it at night, but this team continues to play hard and smart every single week. i remember telling myself that I will not miss any more opportunities to ride these guys as dogs, and here they are getting 17. granted, it's against a legitimate squad in Cincy, but I like how UCONN is coached, and their offense has show a lot of balance this year. Starting QB Endres is out, but backup Frazer has experience and threw for 300+ in relief last week against Rutgers, including what should have been a game winning drive. Cincy still has not had the close shave win that all really good teams have, and I think it comes in this game. UCONN is a solid squad. If they get blown out here, just tip your cap to the growing legend of Brian Kelly.
11. @Hawaii +2 1/2(you might get 3) v Utah St: Yes, Utah St is much better, and on paper they have a nice offense, but they are not ready to be a favorite in games like this. They are a good play in games like last week at Fresno, where they can sneak up on teams and come in under the number, but not in games that they have to cover. I haven't checked but I am willing to bet that they have never won on the island. They've been a road favorite once before this year, at New mexico St, and they lost that game outright to probably the least talented team in the country. Hawaii still has the ability to burn you in the passing game, and Utah st's d has been nothing to write home about. I don't think they can get it done in this spot on the island. As a dog, maybe. Not as a favorite.
others: I see USC(-10) bouncing back and thumping ASU. ASU has a decent defense, but they are limited offensively, and USC will be out for redemption. Oregon St is gettting 7 at Cal. Cal is better than them, but these are the types of late in the year games that OSU wins and cal loses.....I think Pitt has a chance to thoroughly destroy Syracuse, laying 21. The Cuse is feeling sorry for itself right now, and Pitt is clicking....Penn St is the better team in their game with Ohio St and I expect them to win. the line moved to 5 however, so it droipped out of the musing category. ohio St is going to have all kinds of problems scoring in that one. Look for increased heat on Tressel if they can't get their shit together. I also have a feeling on the following...K St +2 1/2 at home against Kansas, Colorado St to beat a terrible UNLV team in what amounts to a pick em game, and I think Army hangs with Air Force despite their probably inability to score much of anything against that AF defense....That's it....have a good week, and fade away!!!!
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Week 9 Musings
Sorry for the delay, but it's obvious that I didn't doctor these, as badly as they turned out.
At this point, if anyone is actually following this weekly bag of shit, they need to have their heads examined. Over the past several years I'd have recommended it, but at this point, this year, I have proven only that I have no idea what the hell it is I'm doing when I'm picking out these games. 7-9 last week brings the total for the year to 43-54-1. On one of the games, I didn't even realize that Auburn was playing their game at LSU instead of at home. How inept is that? The only thing I've shown this year has been a knack for picking teams that throw pick 6's, get punts blocked and give up kick returns for scores. Last week, 3 games lost due mostly to defensive and special teams scores. Oh, by the way, I rarely bet much on NFL games, but my top favorites last week were Minnesota and Miami. Go ahead and research the box scores on those two and see what you come up with.
North Carolina just beat Virginia Tech outright. How about that? Shows what I know. I was smart enough to play them last week when they puked up a 17 point lead at home to Florida St and looked putrid in the process. Of course...they'll waltz in to Blacksburg and play with poise and actually win the turnover battle. By the way, nice uniforms VT. You deserve to lose when you dress like that in public.
Saw that the college basketball rankings came out today. Butler is ranked 10th. I live in Indy, follow college hoops somewhat closely and I couldn't tell you two guys on that team. I actually went through the top 25, and there were something like 8 teams who I couldn't name two guys on the team. and couldn't tell you who the coach was. Example: Texas is ranked 3rd. I've heard of one guy on that team, Damion James. Cal is ranked 12th? Washington 13th? Butler is 10th!! I live in Indy, and I couldn't pick any of their players out of a lineup. Dayton is ranked? Let's just say that I am not anticipating college hoops with the same amount of vigor I used to. I am no Dookie V. At least Illinois should be ok this year.
0-1 to start the week thanks to Va Tech's unfortunate performance, or UNC's great performance or whatever. It was the exact opposite of what i told you would happen. Let's learn more about opposites!!
2. Indiana +17 @Iowa: I swore off these jackasses after they grabbed their collective ankles in Charlottesville( by the way, a big f-u goes out to the University of Vagina for their performance last week v GT in about the 400th driving rainstorm of the CFB season), but this is a vintage Pete LaVette play here. In previous years, games like this have cashed like clockwork. Iowa hasn't been able to blow anyone out this year, it just is not their M.O. However, time is running out on those who fear the Hawkeyes running the table. They're unlikely to stumble this week, but as I mentioned, they've shown no penchant for blowing anyone out, unless it's Iowa St, it's against a musing and Iowa St hands them 4 turnovers within their own 25. Indiana has some actionable items on offense and has been able to harrass opposing Qb's, so Iowa likely won't be too comfortable in this one. They are also very banged up and coming off two emotional road victories. They can expect their dork fans to provide some support this week and maybe they'll all carry teddy bears a la St Louis baseball fans to help nurse their beloved Hawks back to health, but save some bonehead plays or a gaggle of turnovers, this one will probably be a competitive game. IU will have to overcome the defensive scores that Iowa gets though.
3. Nc State +10 @Florida St: The Wolfpack has looked downright adrift the past couple of weeks, having been buried by Duke and BC of all people the past two games. They're heavily dogged here because they now face FSU, who has shown themselves to be comptetent in the passing game, but also has shown some dysfunctional characteristics. The Noles also sport and even weaker pass D than the Wolfpack, and although Russell Wilson is no longer immortal, he still is quite capable. Coming off a bye, I think this is the week Tom O'Brien coaxes a good performance out of his boys, as the Pack is certainly due, and better than they've shown. They are capable of winning this if they can get their heads out of their asses and convert some opportunities. They'll have to overcome the blocked field goal for a TD that FSU will get however.
4. Cincinnati -15 @Syracuse: Statistically, this is a mismatch in a lot of ways, but most alarmingly for Syracuse, in the Cincy pass O v Cuse pass d category. Cincy is ranked #1 in pass efficiency, Syracuse is ranked 112th in pass efficiency D. Also, Orange QB Greg Paulus has been turnover prone, and Syracuse won't be able to run on them, so Paulus will be left to his own devices against the top sack unit in the country. Not a good matchup for Syracuse, but that kickoff return for a score that they'll get certainly will help out.
5. Ole Miss -4 @Auburn: I've been skeptical of Jevan Snead all year, and as an extension, this Ole Miss team, but it looks like they are rounding into shape. The timing is similar to last year...this is about the time of year that they really started to hit their stride. Auburn has a couple of problems staring at them in this game. First, they have no passing game. Chris Todd just isnt working out for Gus Malzahn and the Tiger offense., It's become pretty much the Ben Tate show for Auburn due to Todd's deficiencies and second RB Ontaio McCalebb's nagging injuries, and Ole Miss is ranked 3rd in the nation in run defense. Auburn has also shown continued erosion on defense, mostly due to their lack of depth. They reportedly have had tryouts for walkons for their secondary, and their linebacking crew is dangerously thin. I think Ole Miss keeps the momentum going, but that twice tipped INT return for a score that Auburn gets early will make it tougher to cover a number on the road.
6. Temple +7 @Navy: Talk about a couple of scrappy teams. temple has been able to find ways to win pretty much all year, their victory at Toledo in which they put up 40 without much of an offensive attack being the latest example. The big reason for this side is that QB Ricky Dobbs won't be playing for Navy per media reports, and navy is historically a poor home favorite. Backup Kriss Proctor stepped in admirably for the Middies last week at home against Wake, but he is much less able to throw it than Dobbs is(zero pass attempts in the game would illustrate that). Plus, he spells his name like a queer. The combination of Temple getting Navy's backup combined with their bad home favorite history leads me to Temple here, as they can run the ball effectively and they've found ways to win this year. Also, don't forget that Temple had Navy beat last year until Navy recovered a fumble while Temple was trying to run out the clock that sent the game to overtime. Kaipo played in that game too, so it wasn;t like they were winning because resident oaf Jarrod Bryant was running the show that day. I'll stop with the turnover predictions now.
7. Michigan -7 @Illinois: Michigan looked terrible last week, but don't expect the Illinois coaches to notice anything from the game film to exploit what Penn St did. Michigan is going to have great success running the football, perhaps as good an amount of success as they've had in any game this year save the Delaware st debacle. Illinois is ranked 106th against the run, and the Wolves have had success running it. Hell, they'll throw it too! Michigan has struggled on defense, but Illinois has floundered against worse. Illinois hasn't beaten Michigan in Champaign since 1983. Also, I'll be rooting hard for the Illini this week due to my hatred for Michigan, so their chances just got a lot worse. If the Illini are total jagoffs, they'll do what they did last week. Lose by as much as possible without letting me win my bet.
8. Nebraska -13 @Baylor: Baylor has really fallen on hard times due to some crippling injuries. Hopefully, the Bear faithful don't start getting impatient with Art Briles, because he's a good coach. They've really struggled lately though because QB Robert Griffin is out for the year, and the team revolves around him. Nebraska comes in to Waco as a 13 point favorite this week. They are coming off an 8 turnover game against Iowa St last week, and their offense is currently a mess. Throughout it all, however, their defense has been outstanding, and I see no real chance for Baylor to move the ball on them. The value is out of whack here a bit, since Okie St was only an 8 point favorite in Waco last week, but I still think Nebraska will cover.....
9. Florida -14 1/2(buy it to 14 if possible) v Georgia: It's true that Florida has been very unimpressive on offense this year, but I think this might be the week that we see a points explosion. Georgia's defense has been extremely poorly coached all year, and I can see a scenario where Florida really piles it on. They stop the run cold, so Georgia's pedestrian passing game certainly won't be successful against them. This will only lead to more pressure on Joe Cox, which is never a good thing. Despite their offensive troubles, this offense is still ranked 5th in the country in yards per play, while the Dawg D has turned in some brutal performances...I'd say it's the weakest outfit Florida has seen in awhile. Public perception is that this is too many points for how Florida has played, and I'd agree, but I think Georgia will get Florida's best shot this week, and it won't be pretty. Doors blown off, taken out to the woodshed, bludgeoned, pick your desciptive term.
10. @Idaho -3 v Louisiana Tech: Despite the fact that the Vandals gave up 70 points last week to the devastating Nevada rushing attack, I'm going to back them again this week. Louisiana Tech is making their second consecutive road trip across the country this week, having lost a heartbreaker at Utah State last week. Now they have to hitch up the wagons again and go all the way to Idaho to play a very good offense. They should have some success against the Vandals defense, but they are not explosive, and their own defense has left some things to be desired, since they are ranked 85th in the country in yards per play against. We just need the Vandals to gut out a victory, and they've been pretty good about that this year.
11. USC -3 @Oregon: Despite their dominant play as of late, I am still not sold on Oregon....at least not on their offense. Regardless if Jeremiah Masoli plays or not, they can't throw the ball with any kind of regularity, and to beat USC, you need to be diverse on offense. The chances of them running the ball down USC's throat are pretty slim. Lately, the chinks in USC's armor have centered around their pass dfense, as both Notre Dame and Oregon St have thrown on them the past two weeks, but Oregon can't do what those two teams did. Also, USC is clicking on offense, so Oregon is going to have to have a day on defense like they did against Cal. possible, I suppose, but not likely. I also don't think that Chip kelly is ready to pull off this kind of victory in his first year. USC reaffirms their conference dominance in this one. They better, because if they don't, they are not only out of the MNC chase, but they're completely out of the Rose Bowl and probably the BCS as well.
Others: We're running the risk of having another Indiana type performance from the Cavaliers here, but I like the way Duke has been playing lately, and I like the chances that David Cutcliffe can figure out some ways to exploit the Wahoo defense. Also, just like I said several weeks ago, it's tough for such a limited offensive team to cover more than a score against a team that can throw it around a bit. Thaddeus Lewis has been good this year, and you can make a case that Duke has played better than UVA over the course of the year. .....Leaning toward Colorado as a 4 point home dog to Missouri, since Mizzou is out of momentum and QB Gabbert is heavily affected by the ankle injury he suffered awhile ago. CU has played pretty well at home....In the MAC, which I've mostly avoided this year, Kent is a short home favorite over Western Michigan(2 1/2). Kent has actually played very well lately after some terrible performances while they were sorting out their QB situation, which they have now done, settling on freshmsn Spencer Keith, who has played well. Their defense has been effective all year, and Western has been inconsistent. kent should handle that one......UAB has the #2 rushing offense in the country as far as yards per carry, and their facing the 111th ranked run defense in UTEP while getting 7 points. That alone makes them enticing, but C-USA East teams have had a hard time making that trip to El Paso, and the words "UAB" "sound defense" have never been found in the same area code with each other, let alone the same sentence. That mismatch is enough for me though. I'm down......Central Michigan is better in every statistical category than Boston College. If they can catch a break and get some decent weather tomorrow, they've got a great shot at an outright win. I'll be taking the 6 with them as well......They haven't lined the game yet for some reason, but Hawaii is traveling to reno to take on the Nevada run game. that will be a bloodbath for sure. Nevada continues to prove that they have the weaker sisters of the WAC for lunch, while they themselves take their rightful place at the dinner table for the BCS bigfoots and Boise. They should destroy Hawaii, whose previously solid passing game has been wrecked by injury. The matchup between the Nevada run offense and Hawaii run D is among the most one sided that you'll find all year. If you see a spread under about 27, go ahead and take the Wolf Pack.(2 words, unlike NC State).....Quickly, Utah St has a chance to catch Fresno St uninterested, so I'll take the 17 there, Air Force should continue Colorado St's death spiral(laying 6), and I like Michigan St to cover at Minnesota(-3 1/2), although the qb change for Minnesota, assuming it happens xould make things interesting, as MSU might still be shellshocked from last week. Statistically, this is a mismatch, though. If for some reason Adam Weber plays, (I can't imagine they would do that with no eric Decker) it becomes a stronger play on MSU for me.
That's it. Go ahead and fade away on these, and make yourselves some cash.
At this point, if anyone is actually following this weekly bag of shit, they need to have their heads examined. Over the past several years I'd have recommended it, but at this point, this year, I have proven only that I have no idea what the hell it is I'm doing when I'm picking out these games. 7-9 last week brings the total for the year to 43-54-1. On one of the games, I didn't even realize that Auburn was playing their game at LSU instead of at home. How inept is that? The only thing I've shown this year has been a knack for picking teams that throw pick 6's, get punts blocked and give up kick returns for scores. Last week, 3 games lost due mostly to defensive and special teams scores. Oh, by the way, I rarely bet much on NFL games, but my top favorites last week were Minnesota and Miami. Go ahead and research the box scores on those two and see what you come up with.
North Carolina just beat Virginia Tech outright. How about that? Shows what I know. I was smart enough to play them last week when they puked up a 17 point lead at home to Florida St and looked putrid in the process. Of course...they'll waltz in to Blacksburg and play with poise and actually win the turnover battle. By the way, nice uniforms VT. You deserve to lose when you dress like that in public.
Saw that the college basketball rankings came out today. Butler is ranked 10th. I live in Indy, follow college hoops somewhat closely and I couldn't tell you two guys on that team. I actually went through the top 25, and there were something like 8 teams who I couldn't name two guys on the team. and couldn't tell you who the coach was. Example: Texas is ranked 3rd. I've heard of one guy on that team, Damion James. Cal is ranked 12th? Washington 13th? Butler is 10th!! I live in Indy, and I couldn't pick any of their players out of a lineup. Dayton is ranked? Let's just say that I am not anticipating college hoops with the same amount of vigor I used to. I am no Dookie V. At least Illinois should be ok this year.
0-1 to start the week thanks to Va Tech's unfortunate performance, or UNC's great performance or whatever. It was the exact opposite of what i told you would happen. Let's learn more about opposites!!
2. Indiana +17 @Iowa: I swore off these jackasses after they grabbed their collective ankles in Charlottesville( by the way, a big f-u goes out to the University of Vagina for their performance last week v GT in about the 400th driving rainstorm of the CFB season), but this is a vintage Pete LaVette play here. In previous years, games like this have cashed like clockwork. Iowa hasn't been able to blow anyone out this year, it just is not their M.O. However, time is running out on those who fear the Hawkeyes running the table. They're unlikely to stumble this week, but as I mentioned, they've shown no penchant for blowing anyone out, unless it's Iowa St, it's against a musing and Iowa St hands them 4 turnovers within their own 25. Indiana has some actionable items on offense and has been able to harrass opposing Qb's, so Iowa likely won't be too comfortable in this one. They are also very banged up and coming off two emotional road victories. They can expect their dork fans to provide some support this week and maybe they'll all carry teddy bears a la St Louis baseball fans to help nurse their beloved Hawks back to health, but save some bonehead plays or a gaggle of turnovers, this one will probably be a competitive game. IU will have to overcome the defensive scores that Iowa gets though.
3. Nc State +10 @Florida St: The Wolfpack has looked downright adrift the past couple of weeks, having been buried by Duke and BC of all people the past two games. They're heavily dogged here because they now face FSU, who has shown themselves to be comptetent in the passing game, but also has shown some dysfunctional characteristics. The Noles also sport and even weaker pass D than the Wolfpack, and although Russell Wilson is no longer immortal, he still is quite capable. Coming off a bye, I think this is the week Tom O'Brien coaxes a good performance out of his boys, as the Pack is certainly due, and better than they've shown. They are capable of winning this if they can get their heads out of their asses and convert some opportunities. They'll have to overcome the blocked field goal for a TD that FSU will get however.
4. Cincinnati -15 @Syracuse: Statistically, this is a mismatch in a lot of ways, but most alarmingly for Syracuse, in the Cincy pass O v Cuse pass d category. Cincy is ranked #1 in pass efficiency, Syracuse is ranked 112th in pass efficiency D. Also, Orange QB Greg Paulus has been turnover prone, and Syracuse won't be able to run on them, so Paulus will be left to his own devices against the top sack unit in the country. Not a good matchup for Syracuse, but that kickoff return for a score that they'll get certainly will help out.
5. Ole Miss -4 @Auburn: I've been skeptical of Jevan Snead all year, and as an extension, this Ole Miss team, but it looks like they are rounding into shape. The timing is similar to last year...this is about the time of year that they really started to hit their stride. Auburn has a couple of problems staring at them in this game. First, they have no passing game. Chris Todd just isnt working out for Gus Malzahn and the Tiger offense., It's become pretty much the Ben Tate show for Auburn due to Todd's deficiencies and second RB Ontaio McCalebb's nagging injuries, and Ole Miss is ranked 3rd in the nation in run defense. Auburn has also shown continued erosion on defense, mostly due to their lack of depth. They reportedly have had tryouts for walkons for their secondary, and their linebacking crew is dangerously thin. I think Ole Miss keeps the momentum going, but that twice tipped INT return for a score that Auburn gets early will make it tougher to cover a number on the road.
6. Temple +7 @Navy: Talk about a couple of scrappy teams. temple has been able to find ways to win pretty much all year, their victory at Toledo in which they put up 40 without much of an offensive attack being the latest example. The big reason for this side is that QB Ricky Dobbs won't be playing for Navy per media reports, and navy is historically a poor home favorite. Backup Kriss Proctor stepped in admirably for the Middies last week at home against Wake, but he is much less able to throw it than Dobbs is(zero pass attempts in the game would illustrate that). Plus, he spells his name like a queer. The combination of Temple getting Navy's backup combined with their bad home favorite history leads me to Temple here, as they can run the ball effectively and they've found ways to win this year. Also, don't forget that Temple had Navy beat last year until Navy recovered a fumble while Temple was trying to run out the clock that sent the game to overtime. Kaipo played in that game too, so it wasn;t like they were winning because resident oaf Jarrod Bryant was running the show that day. I'll stop with the turnover predictions now.
7. Michigan -7 @Illinois: Michigan looked terrible last week, but don't expect the Illinois coaches to notice anything from the game film to exploit what Penn St did. Michigan is going to have great success running the football, perhaps as good an amount of success as they've had in any game this year save the Delaware st debacle. Illinois is ranked 106th against the run, and the Wolves have had success running it. Hell, they'll throw it too! Michigan has struggled on defense, but Illinois has floundered against worse. Illinois hasn't beaten Michigan in Champaign since 1983. Also, I'll be rooting hard for the Illini this week due to my hatred for Michigan, so their chances just got a lot worse. If the Illini are total jagoffs, they'll do what they did last week. Lose by as much as possible without letting me win my bet.
8. Nebraska -13 @Baylor: Baylor has really fallen on hard times due to some crippling injuries. Hopefully, the Bear faithful don't start getting impatient with Art Briles, because he's a good coach. They've really struggled lately though because QB Robert Griffin is out for the year, and the team revolves around him. Nebraska comes in to Waco as a 13 point favorite this week. They are coming off an 8 turnover game against Iowa St last week, and their offense is currently a mess. Throughout it all, however, their defense has been outstanding, and I see no real chance for Baylor to move the ball on them. The value is out of whack here a bit, since Okie St was only an 8 point favorite in Waco last week, but I still think Nebraska will cover.....
9. Florida -14 1/2(buy it to 14 if possible) v Georgia: It's true that Florida has been very unimpressive on offense this year, but I think this might be the week that we see a points explosion. Georgia's defense has been extremely poorly coached all year, and I can see a scenario where Florida really piles it on. They stop the run cold, so Georgia's pedestrian passing game certainly won't be successful against them. This will only lead to more pressure on Joe Cox, which is never a good thing. Despite their offensive troubles, this offense is still ranked 5th in the country in yards per play, while the Dawg D has turned in some brutal performances...I'd say it's the weakest outfit Florida has seen in awhile. Public perception is that this is too many points for how Florida has played, and I'd agree, but I think Georgia will get Florida's best shot this week, and it won't be pretty. Doors blown off, taken out to the woodshed, bludgeoned, pick your desciptive term.
10. @Idaho -3 v Louisiana Tech: Despite the fact that the Vandals gave up 70 points last week to the devastating Nevada rushing attack, I'm going to back them again this week. Louisiana Tech is making their second consecutive road trip across the country this week, having lost a heartbreaker at Utah State last week. Now they have to hitch up the wagons again and go all the way to Idaho to play a very good offense. They should have some success against the Vandals defense, but they are not explosive, and their own defense has left some things to be desired, since they are ranked 85th in the country in yards per play against. We just need the Vandals to gut out a victory, and they've been pretty good about that this year.
11. USC -3 @Oregon: Despite their dominant play as of late, I am still not sold on Oregon....at least not on their offense. Regardless if Jeremiah Masoli plays or not, they can't throw the ball with any kind of regularity, and to beat USC, you need to be diverse on offense. The chances of them running the ball down USC's throat are pretty slim. Lately, the chinks in USC's armor have centered around their pass dfense, as both Notre Dame and Oregon St have thrown on them the past two weeks, but Oregon can't do what those two teams did. Also, USC is clicking on offense, so Oregon is going to have to have a day on defense like they did against Cal. possible, I suppose, but not likely. I also don't think that Chip kelly is ready to pull off this kind of victory in his first year. USC reaffirms their conference dominance in this one. They better, because if they don't, they are not only out of the MNC chase, but they're completely out of the Rose Bowl and probably the BCS as well.
Others: We're running the risk of having another Indiana type performance from the Cavaliers here, but I like the way Duke has been playing lately, and I like the chances that David Cutcliffe can figure out some ways to exploit the Wahoo defense. Also, just like I said several weeks ago, it's tough for such a limited offensive team to cover more than a score against a team that can throw it around a bit. Thaddeus Lewis has been good this year, and you can make a case that Duke has played better than UVA over the course of the year. .....Leaning toward Colorado as a 4 point home dog to Missouri, since Mizzou is out of momentum and QB Gabbert is heavily affected by the ankle injury he suffered awhile ago. CU has played pretty well at home....In the MAC, which I've mostly avoided this year, Kent is a short home favorite over Western Michigan(2 1/2). Kent has actually played very well lately after some terrible performances while they were sorting out their QB situation, which they have now done, settling on freshmsn Spencer Keith, who has played well. Their defense has been effective all year, and Western has been inconsistent. kent should handle that one......UAB has the #2 rushing offense in the country as far as yards per carry, and their facing the 111th ranked run defense in UTEP while getting 7 points. That alone makes them enticing, but C-USA East teams have had a hard time making that trip to El Paso, and the words "UAB" "sound defense" have never been found in the same area code with each other, let alone the same sentence. That mismatch is enough for me though. I'm down......Central Michigan is better in every statistical category than Boston College. If they can catch a break and get some decent weather tomorrow, they've got a great shot at an outright win. I'll be taking the 6 with them as well......They haven't lined the game yet for some reason, but Hawaii is traveling to reno to take on the Nevada run game. that will be a bloodbath for sure. Nevada continues to prove that they have the weaker sisters of the WAC for lunch, while they themselves take their rightful place at the dinner table for the BCS bigfoots and Boise. They should destroy Hawaii, whose previously solid passing game has been wrecked by injury. The matchup between the Nevada run offense and Hawaii run D is among the most one sided that you'll find all year. If you see a spread under about 27, go ahead and take the Wolf Pack.(2 words, unlike NC State).....Quickly, Utah St has a chance to catch Fresno St uninterested, so I'll take the 17 there, Air Force should continue Colorado St's death spiral(laying 6), and I like Michigan St to cover at Minnesota(-3 1/2), although the qb change for Minnesota, assuming it happens xould make things interesting, as MSU might still be shellshocked from last week. Statistically, this is a mismatch, though. If for some reason Adam Weber plays, (I can't imagine they would do that with no eric Decker) it becomes a stronger play on MSU for me.
That's it. Go ahead and fade away on these, and make yourselves some cash.
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