Week 11 Musings

You know it's getting late in the year when you're surfing the FM radio dial and you come across the all Christmas song channel. i think just about every market has some station that does it. I was treated to Nat King Cole's version of "The Christmas Song" today. Got to admit, in a world where I can find about 27 things I hate intensely in every waking moment, it's one of the few things I like: being able to hear Christmas music in 60 degree weather on November 12th.

Speaking of things I hate intensely, why is it that no matter how hard I try, I simply cannot escape Matt Millen? What has this sack of shit ever done to make football tv producers maniacally and addictively insist that he call just about every football game available? We're already subjected to seeing him on ABC/ESPN every Saturday in what almost always turns out to be a desirable game to watch. Desirable, that is, until he starts belching his inane commentary. As if that's not enough, ESPN also shoves him down our throats in during Monday Night football wrapups. Luckily for me, my avoidance of all things Stuart Scott has caused me to miss him in that role. Now, as I turned on the Bears /49ers taffy pull on NFL network tonight, I see that the NFL network has decided that Matt Millen twice a week is not nearly enough, as he is in my face once again. The worst thing about this is that this guy is absolutely unlistenable. If anyone tivo'd the game, count how many times he said "well done" during the course of the game. It could actually be a great substitute if you have built up an immunity to the Brent Musberger drinking game. Carissa and I lost count at 40. I knew that his firing by the Lions would probably make my life significantly less pleasant. One other thing: It also drives me insane when he says "I want you to watch...." as if we are all too stupid to pick something up during the course of a game and he has to spoonfeed us. Here's what I have to say to Matt Millen. Hey asshole, i want you to listen to this. GO FUCK YOURSELF! You've done that? Great. Well done.

Speaking of the Bears, it looks like I'm lucky I don't have to be subjected to those assbandits every week. It's one extreme or the other with these guys. Consider their defense. Throwing out the Browns game, (since the Browns are one of about 13 NFL teams that are completely putrid and can't be taken seriously as a professional outfit), in their last two games against Cincinnati and Arizona. Here are the results of the other teams drives from the start of the game until it was effectively called off via slaughter rule. Cincinnati: Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, touchdown. ARIZONA: Touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal(only because they got the ball with only 22 seconds left in the half) field goal. So basically, in those two weeks, to start the game until the game was pretty much over, Bears opponents scored on 12 out of 12 possessions, 9 of them touchdowns. the best offense in college football, let alone the pros, scores on half of their possessions. So if you let the other team score half the time, you are an uncontrollable crumbling dike of a defense. how about 12 out of 12? Ouch babe. And when their defense plays acceptably, or to be more accurate, plays against a team that can't get out of it's own way offensively, their quarterback looks like the village idiot in the red zone. To be honest, if you don't at least slightly suspect that Cutler is on the take, you aren't paying attention. He can't possibly be that bad.

The musings finally had an acceptable week, coming in at 7-4. Season total is 54-65. 45%. Holy shit that sucks. Work to do to get to 500.

1. @Cincinnati -9 1/2 v West Virginia(FRIDAY): I thought Cincy would have their close call last week, and it happened. It's hard to believe that they even had to sweat at all in that game, since they piled up 730 yards of offense against UCONN. They knuckleheaded around for awhile in the second half though, and that led to a scrappy UCONN team almost stealing one from them. They won't fall for that again. West Virginia comes into this game in somewhat bad shape. their QB Jarrett Brown has been alternately hurt and clueless, and their best player Noel Devine missed most of last week with a badly turned ankle. Their defense is pretty solid, but Cincy is the top offense in the nation, and West Virginia had all kinds of problems with BJ Daniels from South Florida two weeks ago, who isn't in the same league with Cincinnati's QB Zach Collaros as a passer and maybe not even as a runner. They gained a grand total of 275 yards against a checked out Louisville team at home last week. With the combination of Cincy's offense, a reeling West Virginia squad and the coaching mismatch of the new millenium, I think the "Eers are ripe to be completely blown out in front of a national TV audience. ED NOTE: Did I mention that i hate playing favorites????

2. Northwestern +5 @Illinois: You knew this was coming didn't you? A completely lost team sacks up and wins a couple games, and now at 3-6, they are a significant favorite against a well coached 6-3 team. Makes sense. I've already seen headlines saying "Confident Illinois looking toward possible bowl" and I've heard players quoted as saying that they can't look toward the Cincinnati game in December. If they say that they can't look past Northwestern and toward Cincinnati, they are looking past Northwestern and toward Cincinnati, as shockingly ridiculous as that premise might sound. How in the world this team can be overconfident against any team, I have no earthly idea, but they probably are. I'll be very surprised if they win, let alone cover more than a FG. If they pull it off, then Ron Zook will have done a great job preparing his players this week. Ok, you can stop laughing now.

3. @Purdue +3 v Michigan St: I am just not a big fan of Michigan St on the road. Ii don't think they do a good job of covering in the pasing game, and they are having all kinds of trouble running the ball for any kind of per carry average. 2 weeks ago, I was convinced that Minnesota was a complete non-entity on offnse withoout Eric Decker at wide receiver, and they probably were, but Adam Weber carved them up for 400+ and 42 points. Now they travel to West Lafayette where the Boilers have some added hop in their step coming off the Michigan win as well as their confidence from taking out Ohio St on that field. Statistically, MSU is superior, so i see why the spread is where it is, but at the end of the day, I suspect the wrong team is favored.

4. Texas -23 1/2 @Baylor: It makes no difference where this game is played, because Baylor has absolutely no home field advantage in Waco, so the stands will be filled by mostly Texas fans. Although Texas will almost certainly not give Baylor their best shot, this line is deflated due to Baylor's fluke performance last week in Columbia, Missouri. As much as I like Art Briles, I just can't envision a scenario where Texas doesn't completely shut down Baylor to the tune of about 3-7 points. Not sure if you've noticed, but Colt McCoy has been on a roll the past couple of weeks, so you can expect the Horns to put up some points on the Bears as well. I can see a 47-7 type game here, mostly due to the Texas defense and their penchant for non offensive scores.

5. Tennesee +5 1/2 @Ole Miss: Over the course of the season, one of the teams that has impressed me the most has been Tennessee. I think it's pretty obvious that Lane Kiffin, despite his penchant for acting like a douchebag during the summer, knows what he's doing. it's also clear that their defense is very well run by his dad. Basically, I see this as a game where one team is slightly better on both sides of the ball. If you take a look at Jonathan crompton's numbers over the past 5 games, 4 of which were against SEC defenses including Bama, you have to be impressed. 60% completions, 8.32 yds per attempt and a 14/2 ratio. I think his improvement has a lot to do with Kiffin's system. On the flip side, Jevan snead has struggled all year, especially against good defenses, and Ole Miss runs a pro-style offense. You think Monte Kiffin might have some idea how to fashion a solid game plan here? I do. I think UT has a great shot at winning this game outright. I'd say that they are playing as well as anyone in the SEC right now other than Alabama and Florida. The only drawback is that Tennessee had a bit of a hiccup with a couple of their players this week(including 2 contributers). No big deal though...just armed robbery. Standard, routine SEC minutia. No big deal.

6. @Nc State +8 v Clemson: Clemson is riding high, and has looked very good over the past month or so, but this is just the kind of game in which they figure out a way to bring the pleasant feelings to an end and shove their fanbase's faces into a pile of horse manure. Nc State has had some head scratchers this year, but they remain in bowl contention, and their offense is certainly capable of giving a repeat of their performance at home against Pittsburgh early in the year. Clemson is also capable of gagging on the road, much like they did earlier this year against Maryland. Clemson is certainly due for a bad performance, and although NC State has struggled mightily on defense, they might find Clemson's occasionally inept offense somewhat to their liking. Big danger spot for Clemson here.

7. Iowa +17 @Ohio St: I understand that people didn't like that Iowa was undefeated, and we all had to deal with the horrific possibility of a run of the mill Big Ten team possibly going undefeated and ruining our January 9th or whatever it is just like Ohio St has in the past. Well, that's over with, and Iowa looked bad as they hacked away their chance in their debacle against Northwestern. Obviously at the same time, Ohio St was taking care of Penn St in Happy Valley. How things can change in a week. I have to ask this: If that line was set prior to the games last week, what would it have been? OSU -3.?? Now it's 17? Did Iowa's front seven get suspended? Is Kirk Ferentz and the Iowa coaching staff staying home this week? I understand that Iowa is without Ricky Stanzi, but when was this guy ever worth 14 points in a spread? He's thrown 14 interceptions this year. He's an average QB who played capably. He is not by any means a superstar. The kid that relieved him last week had no practice time and was thrown into the fire. He'll certainly be be much more perpared, and he's actually Iowa's all time leading High School passer, so it's not like he's a total chump. I understand that Ohio St has been good on defense, and that Iowa will struggle to score in this game, but last I checked, Terrelle Pryor has had exactly one good game this year. Iowa is going to have a hard time scoring in this game, but this team is not 9-1 by accident. There is overwhelming value in 17 points in this game. You absolutely have to take it.

8. Stanford +11 @USC: Stanford has been very impressive on offense this year, as their results will tell you. Toby Gerhart is a beast running the ball, and their QB Andrew Luck is the best passer in the country this side of Jimmy Claussen. Now they travel to USC on a roll. The Trojans defense has not shown an ability lately to stop any good offenses. Oregon st shredded them a couple weeks ago, and we all know what Oregon dod to them. Now Stanford comes in with a pedigree that probably falls between those two teams. USC's offense also has not been anything to write home about, although it appears that they might have a good matchup here with Stanford's defense, which has had some issues. At the end of the day, however, I think stanford's offense is going to have success against USC's defense. There's definitely value in the double digits here. Stanford is a tough football team, and we all know Harbaugh's thoughts on covering the spread.

9. Miami -3 @North Carolina: UNC has had 2 nice games in a row, both of which were musings losers, but I'm going back to well and fading these guys again. North carolina has a very good defense statistically, but they have not faced an offense like Miami's yet. Well, check that, FSU is in the same league and UNC gave up 400 yards passing in that one. Miami comes in on a roll as well, having blown out Virginia last week, the same team that won in Chapel Hill a few weeks ago. Miami's defense has not been fantastic this year, but I think they can hold down this UNC attack, which is averaging less than 300yards per game, and I think they'll have enough success offensively to cover this meager line. Carolina is going to need a terrible effort from Miami and a lot of breaks to be able to win this one. I like the Canes chances a lot, all things being equal.

10 Arizona +3 @ Cal: I think this might be the game that Arizona goes from being a curiosity to a team that people stand up and notice. The last time I was on Arizona on the road, they lost to Washington on the fam ous"kicked ball to the defender in stride for a td" game. Had that fluke play n ot happened, Arizona would be undefeated in the PAC 10 and the front runner for the Rose Bowl. Cal is coming off a game in which they were completely dominated(outgained 436-239) at home by Oregon St. Now they play an arguably better team in Arizona, certainly a better defense, without Jahvid Best. they'll need kevin Riley to have a great game, and that has not gone well in big games in the past. Arizona is playing for myuch more than cal is, and at this point, they are better than Cal in all phases. Both on paper, and situationally, I think Arizona has the advantage here, so I'll take the 3.

11. @Oregon -17 (buy the half point) v Arizona St: Pity Arizona St. I think they are walking into a bad situation this week in Eugene. First of all, they had a tough emotional game with USC last week in which they competed but fell short.To say that they shot their wad in that one might be an understatement. Now they have to go to arguably the toughest venue in the PAC 10 to play a team that got embarrassed last week and is looking for redemption. Second of all, they have no offense. Oregon's defense is pretty good against non-power offenses, which ASU certainly is not, so i would suspect that ASU is going to have all kinds of problems scoring, and there are rumblings that they might bench nerd Qb Danny Sullivan and toss a true freshman out there to see how he can do. That will be a problem. On defense, ASU has looked very good this year, but they will not be successful stopping Oregon, because nobody is, other than Boise. I can see a 38-10 type game with relative ease, and it might be worse than that. I'm also thinking that the line might creep down a little and settle in at 17. Very bad spot for ASU.

others: For some reason I have a feeling that South Carolina will rise up and play a decent game against Florida. They've been absolutely destroyed the last couple times they played them, but they should be able to hang in defensively, since Florida just isn't as explosive as they've been in the past, and they have some competence on offense. 17 points at home for the Gamecocks is a lot.....Ga tech struggles against the pass, so they'll have to be somewhat effective against it if they want to cover 13 at Duke. either that or they have to run at will, which is possible. I like Duke chances of keeping it somwhat close though..... 25 points in the Penn state v Indiana game seems like a lot doesn't it?? IU certainly could pull a Virginia and get blown out, but wow.....For some reason, i think kansas rises up and gets things done against Nebraska catching 4 1/2 at home. Nebraska is completely inept on offense at this point, and although Kansas has regressed terribly, I have a feeling they'll get their offense going a bit and surprise some people this week....utah St is layying 13 1/2 against San Jose st. They should never be that much of a favorite, but SJSU looked so bad against Nevada last week, oddsmakers had no choice. I can't see Utah St covering a spread like that.....Although Wake(-5) is traditionally a terrible home favorite, I like their chances to carve up Florida St and hold their freshman backup somewhat in check. Ponder has been the only bright spot for that team. Wake can oput them out of their misery with a win here. That's it...have a good week!!