Week 12 Musings

Numbered musings went 5-5-1 ;ast week, with a couple brutal losses in there. One was Purdue, who completed 39 passes to Michigan St's 11, also gained more rushing yards, but still found a way to avoid covering, even when they were getting three points at home. Oh yeah, they were up by 11 points with 8 minutes left in the game too. We also lost on Arizona. I won't get into the misfortune with that game, but go ahead and checlk the play by play of the last 3 minutes of that one for shits and giggles.

The chances of gettting back to .500 are getting to be downright impossible due to my horrific stretch in the middle of the season. It will most likely go down as the first sub .500 season sinc I started sending out this dreck 6 years ago.

I'm sure if you guys noticed, but USC took another one in the cornhole this week, this time courtesy of Jim Harbaugh and Stanford. If I had to pick one non-Illinois game per year in which I got to decide the winner amd margin, I'd probably say that I'd want Stanford to blast the shit out of USC. So that was great. Also, DickRod took another crobar blow to the skull, which is always welcome as far as I'm concerned. It was actually a pretty solid week for rooting purposes...... If you look back a couple years, you'll remember my significant disdain for for our favorite whale impersonator Charlie Weis. I've actually somewhat returned to the times of my youth over the past 12 months or so in that I've found myself rooting for Notre Dame again, but I have to renew my criticism of this fatass bastard. Since he lost at Pitt last week, the media storm has increased around him, with even more people than usual calling for his head. At this point, I have to jump in with two feet and hoarsely scream my agreement that the guy needs a one way ticket to Out of My Faceville. When you coach a team, the key to leeping your job is winning, obviously. In order to win, you have to coach your team to play to it's potential, and comstantly bring in better players so that potential rises to a championship level. There is no doubt that Notre Dame's great strength lies with it's offense, and specifically it's passing game. So the assumption would be that if Notre Dame executes it's offense well, then they should win a heck of a lot more than they lose, since he's brought in top 10 recruiting classes pretty much every year he's been there. But let's take a look at the Navy game. You would assume that if Notre Dame did what it does well in the Navy game, at home, then they would win the game going away, correct? Well, Jimmy Claussen passed for 457 yards, Golden tate caught 9 balls for 132 yards, and Michael Floyd caught 10 balls for 141 yards. They scored 21 points and lost. Last week against Pitt, both Tate and Floyd again caught balls for well over 100 yards, and this time, they were getting beaten handily until a late punt return briefly got them into shouting range. If you are executing extremely well the things you do best and playing up to your full potential, yet are still losing to Navy at home, there's something wrong with the overall scheme, and it's time for the coach to go. Get Brian Kelly in there and be done with it. By the way, is there a better possible coaching name out there currently for Notre Dame than Brian Kelly? I think not.

Interestingly, Mark Mangino, the 500 pound vomit inducing pile of lard currently coaching at Kansas is also under fire, and it appears that he might be gone as well due to some boderline psychopathic behavior toward his players. If that ends up happening, that would mean that the triumverate of fat coaches that I had so much fun poking fun at the past couple years(Tom Amstutz at Toledo, Mangino and Weis) will all be gone. Maybe Romeo Crennel will get a college gig.

As for this week, I have to admit, I see the lines as being pretty tight. It's really hard to see anything that really jumps out at me, especially from a dog perspective. I also have to apologize that I'll only be able to get a couple of the pays out this morning. I've had all kinds of issues that have come up this week, so it's throwm me off my normal capping schedule. There will be more plays to come(for your fading delights) but I'll only be able to get a couple out at this point.

1. @Iowa -10 v Minnesota: We all know that I've been going against Iowa when they have been significant favorites this year, but I think there's some value with them this week. Minnesota has had a decent year, and they'll be bowl eligible, but they've been lucky in a lot of games this year, mostly at home. In their road games, when they've played teams with good defenses, they've gotten blown out. That might seem a bit harsh, since the teams that have blown them out are Penn State and Ohio State, but I think you can safely place Iowa as being pretty comparable to those teams in terms of defense and probably overall. Minnesota was shut out by Penn State and scored only a late garbage TD at Ohio St, so the chances that they'll be overly successful againt Iowa are pretty remote. In addition, Iowa has shown signs of being somewhat capapble at home, and now that the backup QB has established himself with a good performance at Ohio St, I think he'll be comfortable enough to do at least as well as Stanzi going forward, maybe better. Iowa has covered 8 out of the last ten against Minnesota, including a 55-0 shellacking at Minny last year with very similar teams for both to this year. There's enough of a regional rivalry here that Iowa will be motivated to lay the wood to the Gophers, and in my opinion, lay the wood to the Goofers they will.

2. @Texas A&M -5 v Baylor: I really hate to back a team that has been completely destroyed in so many games recently(Is there a team that loses as embarassingly as A&M does on a consistent basis?), but I think they find themselves in a good spot here. Baylor gained some momentum due to their win at Missouri, which looks at this point to be a total fluke, They haven't really competed in any other Big 12 game...and even Iowa State put up almost 500 yards of offense on them several weeks ago. On the other hand, when they aren't being terrorized by the bullies of college football, A&M has shown the ability to hand out a swirly or two themselves, as their wins at home over Iowa State (35-10) and a likely bowl team in UAB(56-17) would indicate. Despite their cowardly play last week and in other road games this year, they do have a pretty good offense, and they need this win to be bowl eligible this year. They also are trying to keep in front of Baylor to avoid falling into the basement in the Big 12 South. Texas A&M is a much better home tam than road team...I think they'll take care of business here. If I was betting Baylor here, I would need at least double digits to consider it, and probably 13 to be comfortable, so there's some value here for A&M in my opinion.

3. Ohio St -12 @Michigan: I really hate to lay this much wood in this series, especially with a road favorite, but when you look at the numbers, and the performances of these teams, there really isn't any other way to go with this game. The most overrated player in the college game right now, and maybe one of the most overrated of the past several years, is Tate Forcier. This kid was the new football Jesus during the non-conference earlier this year, mostly due to a couple shifty moves he put on Notre Dame's 8th grade level defense. Since he's started pre-conference play, he's led his team to one win, which was a controversial one over Indiana, and has lost 9 fumbles in the 6 games since. Now he faces what is probably the best defense in the Big Ten in a game in which they'll be fired up. Now, I realize there is some danger in laying 12 here, since Michigan will probably be playing for their lives and might get off to a good start, but Ohio State's offense has been steadily improving, and Michigan's defense has been putrid all year. Once the game gets settled down, I don't see how Michigan is going to move the ball on Ohio St, and I don't see how their going to be able to stop the Buckeyes either. To me, this looks like a carbon copy of the Penn State game, and that one ended up 35-10. Once the boulder starts rolling downhill, it could turn into a bad scene with the wine and cheese crowd at the Big House heading for the exits.

4. UCONN +6 @Notre Dame: Try as they might, this Notre Dame team simply refuses to play at a level that will allow them to blow out anyone this side of Washington St. UCONN's offense is certainly good enough in both phases to give the Irish problems, and we've seen ND struggle in games like this ad nauseum during the Weis eera. There's really no reason to expect otherwise here. I can see this game going either way, and with the negative mommentum surrounding the program right now, a loss would seem to me to be about a 55-60% proposition. I'd almost venture to say that the only way ND covers this is if they get the ball first in OT, score a TD and force a fumble on UCONN's possession.

5. Tulane + 22 1/2 @UCF: I generally avoid c-USA games, and almost, but I've found myself betting on Tulane every now and again. I can't really explain why that is. This year, i hadn't seen any reason to back the Green wave, because of how bad they've been. but there is a ton of value in this line. First of all, UCF is coming off a great win over Houston. Now they come back the next week to play a 3-7 Tulane team. The public was absolutely murdered last week by UCF, as 80% of the public couldn't believe their good fortune to only be laying 3.5 points with Case Keenum and the Cougs. UCF showed up and won. Now they are in hillariously unchartered territory for them as a 20+ point favorite. Although they are better offensively than in previous years, they are still inept enough to never warrant huge numbers like this. Tulane on the other hand, has looked much better on offense lately with a QB switch to Ryan Griffin, who has been better able to get the ball to playmaking WR Jeremy Williams. who is actually a better offensive player than anyone UCF has. Sterotype alert: UCF coach George O'Leary will undoubtedly be guarding against his team having a hangover from the Houston game, but guess what......with a name like O'Leary, he'll probably have to use some proactive methods to sober up himself after some Friday night boilermakers.

6 Penn St -3 @ Michigan St: MSU could really use this game to improve their bowl situation, but this game is vital to Penn St if they want to stay in consideration for a BCS game. State shouldn't even be in the position they are, since they deserved to lose last week in West lafayette to a Purdue team that gift wrapped a win for them. I have not been, and will not ever be impressed with this Michigan St team this year. They absolutely cannot cover, and they can't run for a decent per carry average. Now they match up against a motivated team that is coached well enough to exploit their lack of cover skills and has a good enough defense to force them into mistakes. If MSU steps up and wins this game, it will be contrary to everything else they've done this year. Consider this: MSU has surrendered a 24/5 TD/INT ratio this year. Ouch. Look for Darryl Clark to exploit that.

7. @Ole Miss -4 1/2 v LSU: here's a little known fact. LSU has been outgained by their opponents this year, averaging only 310 yards per game, while giving up 312. The team is banged up, as Jordon jefferson didn't play last week. In addition, Charles Scott and a couple lineman have been deemed out for the year due to injury. Despite all this, LSU stands at 8-2. This simply is not an 8-2 ballclub, and it's just a mattter of time until they come crashing down to earth. Ole Miss, on the other hand has hammered Tennessee and Arkansas in it's last two home games, and is certainly looking to add more salt to Les Miles's wounds after clubbing the Tigers in Baton Rouge last year. The rebs appear to be hitting their stride, and LSU is overdue for a clunker performance.

8. @BYU -10 v Air Force: I originally looked at this game as a possibility to back Air Force, but the more I look at it, BYU looks like the correct play. First, let me me say that I am stunned at how well AirForce's defense has played this year. However, they have not faced anything remotely close to BYU's firepower on offense. Also, they have been severely lacking, despite their good record, in the running game. Very mediocre defenses have held Air Forice in check, and BYU has had success with it also. If Air Force wants to cover this, they'll have to score in the 20's and I am not sure they are capable of doing so.

9. Kentucky +9 1/2 @Georgia: I really wish this game was at 12:30 PM or something, but no such luck..it's the ESPN2 night game. That's not ideal, but I still think Kentucky is the value side here. Georgia, already somewhat limited offensively, will be without AJ Green, so Joe Cox won't have his top wideout to make use of this week. Kentucky is also offensively challenged, but they are better than Georgia on defense, and they probably will have less pressure exerted on them by Georgia's defense. They are shifty enough to put some points o the board, and are stingy enough on defense to keep the score close. Kentucky has played well against Georgia in recent years. Too many points here to lay with a mediocre offense.

10. NC State +21 @Virginia Tech: VT has administered some hellacious beatings on some poeple this year, but I don't think NC State will fall victim to that. Defensively, NC State is a sieve, but their offensive work has been good. VT doesnt have much to play for, so they might be sleepwalking. If they lose this by more than 21, it will be a clear indication that Tom O'Brien has some issues with quitters in his program. My guess is that they step up and play well enough to be able to hang within this large pread.

11.Nevada -30@ New Mexico St: Nevada has been running through the WAC like Sherman ran through Atlanta. It hasn't been pretty, as San Jose St can attest,having been beaten like a rented ox because we can't see our screens well enough. Now they fce yet another WAC weakling in NMSU, who almost certainly is the worst offense in the country. I can't see much offnsive output from the Aggies here, but I do believe that Nevada will continue to lay waste to these WAC defenses and this one will be no different. They're leading the nation in run offense and it isn't even close. I can see another 54-10 game here.

Others: I have a lean to Duke, as I think they can exploit Miami's banged up secondary and they are getting a boatload of points (+18.5). If they can force 3 or 4 punts, they've got a great chance....Have a hunch that Texas Tech(+6.5) either beats Oklahoma, or it comes down to the wire. TT's defense, believe it or not has the ability to stop some people, and the offense is alwayus capable.....San Diego St is catching 20 at Utah in a tough sandwich spot for Utah between TCU and with BYU on deck. The Aztecs are massively improved on both sides of the ball, and Utah has struggled with worse than these guys.....UCLA(-5) get to attempt revenge for what happened to them last year in Tempe against the Sun Devils. 4 defensive scores. It was a nightmare. In that game, ASU gained a grand total of 122 yards on 50 plays. I'd say UCLA's confidence is pretty high that they can dole out some payback to ASU. That's it for now..hopefully this is not incoherent babble.